RISK ANALYSIS OF

CONSTRUCTION PROJECT
SCHEDUKLING USING MOTE
CARTO SIMULATION

Submitted by
[Link]
Guided by
[Link] SHAKINA.M.E
 ABSTRACT
Construction industry is one of the booming industries of today that
has a great impact on the economy of any nation .
Large construction projects if delayed can cause increase overall cost
of the project .
Hence risks and uncertainties must be considered for overall duration
of the project.
To organize and complete the projects in a timely, quality and
financially responsible manner , it is a need to schedule projects
carefully .
Qualitative analysis is done by probability impact (PI) & quantitative
analysis is done by PERT and Monte Carlo Simulation.
A schedule risk analysis is performed using Monte Carlo Simulation
with crystal ball software.
 INTRODUCTION

Risk analysis is the process of identifying and analyzing

potential future events that may adversely impact a
company .
Risk analysis is the review of the risks associated with a
particular event or action
It is applied to projects, information technology,
security issues and any action where risks may be
analyzed on a quantitative and qualitative basis.
Risk analysis is a component of risk management.
 OBJECTIVE

The objective are to identify the key risk

factors that affect the project schedule and to
determine the probability of completing the
project within due date.
 LITRATURE REVIEW I
TITLE & AUTHOR AIM METHODOLOGY RESULT &
REMARKS
“Identification and The aim of this • Primary data Based on the
Assessment of Risk study was to were obtained results of the
Factors Affecting identify risk through a research showed
construction projects factors that questionnaire that the most
in North Aceh, influence the survey . influential risk
Indonesia” Anita construction • Secondary data factor in North
Rauzana et al, project and were obtained Aceh was
(2016) determine the from the material factor
most dominant literature such had mean value
risk factors as books and of 4353.
that effect on journals relating
performance of to the research
the project.
 LITERATURE REVIEW II
TITLE & AIM METHODOLOGY RESULT &
AUTHOR REMARKS
“Risk Analysis of The objective of The Monte Carlo It is concluded
software schedule work is to analyze Simulation that greater the
based on the schedule risk technique is critical index
simulation” in software mainly used in value associated
Bhawna Verma et project by research work to with an activity
al, (2016) calculating the provide greater and can offer
critical index of flexibility in effective decision
each activity in estimating critical making during
the network of index and project the development
software project. completion time. phase and
planning
schedule
estimation.
 LITRATURE REVIEW III
TITLE & AIM METHODOLOGY RESULT
AUTHOR &REMARKS
“Risk Assessment To estimate the This paper The contractor
for scheduling increase in project proposes the has the choice to
Acceleration” risk that is caused mathematical start Activity A,
Dr. Khalid et al, by schedule model that works C&B because of
(2016) acceleration. with the time-cost- having a lower
trade-off method risk ratio.
to estimate the
increase in project
risk that is caused
by schedule
acceleration.
 LITRATURE REVIEW IV
TITLE & AIM METHODOLOGY RESULT &
AUTHOR REMARKS
“Schedule Risk The aim this • Most of the major It is concluded
Analysis project is to issues of concern to that greater the
simulator using decrease the a planner and criticality index
Beta time delivery & project manager are value associated
Distribution” to design the addressed by a with an activity
Isha Sharma et simulator for variety of computer and will provide
al.,(2011) schedule risk based tools . effective
analysis . • To simulate the decision making
variability inherent during the
in risk the Monte development
Carlo approach phase and
requires multiple planning
phases over the schedule
project network. estimation
 LITERATURE REVIEW V
TITLE AND AIM METHODOLOGY RESULT AND
AUTHOR REMARK
“Factor This research Two types of After a careful
affecting time was conducted data were literature
and overrun in in an attempt to collected review, several
public identify major secondary data factors affecting
construction factors for such from the time overruns
project “ overrun in the ministry of were identified
typical public work and and ranked by
[Link].. developing housing and the study
(2013) environment of primary data sample.
Jordan. using survey
conducted with
engineer from
the ministry.
 LITERATURE REVIEW VI
TITLE AND AIM METHODOLOG RESULT
AUTHOR Y
“Risk analysis of To identify the key Structure interview In the project
construction risk factor that questionnaire and management risk
project scheduling affect the project simulation were and problem are
using PERT and schedule and to used in collecting solved.
MONTE CARLO determine the and analysing the
SIMULATION” probability of data.
Nurazrin Jupri completing the
[Link]..,(2013) project within due
date .
 LITERATURE REVIEW VII
TITLE AND AIM METHODOL RESULT
AUTHOR OGY

“Identification To identify, • Cost and Cost and

and assessment study and asses schedule scheduling
of rsik factors the effect of the overruns contingency are
affecting factors that assessment. major factors in
construction affect cost and • cost and achieving a
project” time schedule successful and
Mohammad contingency. overruns relasistic budget
Sayed Bassiony criteria and and schedule for
Ahmed And EI- factors construction
Karim [Link].., identification project.
(2015) experts.
 LITERATURE REVIEW VIII
TITLE AND AIM METHODOLO RESULT
AUTHOR GY

“A study of risk This study In this paper This technique is

management proposes to apply general focus has not employed
techniques for the risk been made on the because of less
construction management. general concept knowledge and
project in of risk awareness among
developing management. the construction
countries “ industry.
Patel Ankit
Mahendra et.
Al...,(2013)
 LITERATURE REVIEW IX
TITLE AND AIM METHODOLO RESULT
AUTHOR GY

“The Robustness To determine the • Establish the We regarded

simulation project duration project project
method schedule risk and identify scheduling completion rate
based on the the key tasks that simulation as the basis for
MONTE CARLO influence the model. measuring the
Method” project plan • Define quality and
W . Na . Et..al.., robustness assumption robustness of the
(2014) seriously at the variable and project.
beginning of units.
project planning.
 LITERATURE REVIEW X
TITLE AND AIM METHODOLO RESULT
AUTHOR GY
“Risk assessment In this paper a MONTE In MONTE
of plan schedule pratical example CARLO has been CARLO
by MONTE construction and involving in SIMULATION
CARLO installation many industrial the project model
SIMULATION” engineering in scientific, is computed
Zhaoni Kong cargo area of logistical and many times with
(2015) Kunming social field in the input value
changshui many years. chosen at random
international for each iteration
airport project is from the
studied. probability
distribution of
these variables.
 METHODOLOGY
LITERATUREREVIEW

COLLECTION OF DATA

ANALYSIS OF DATA

IDENTIFY KEY RISK FACTOR

QUALITATIVE RISK QUANTITATIVE RISK

ANALYSIS ANALYSIS

PERT

SIMULATION WITH
CRYSTAL BALL
OUTPUT ANALYSIS
LITERATURE REVIEW:
For the support of the project of this research several journals have been
collected . Each literature explains different aspects that are relevant to the
main aim of the project.
DATA COLLECTION:
In data collection the construction project schedule and risky factors are
collected with three different construction projects.
RISK IDENTIFICATION:
The identification of risks requires a systematic review of the entire
project during which the technical , cost , and schedule risks are evaluated.
BRAINSTORMING:
This is one of the most popular techniques. Generally it is used for idea
generation, it is also very useful for risk identification . All relevant persons
associated with project gather at one place . There is one facilitator who is
briefing about where is aspects with the participants and then after note
down the factors.
 DELPHI TECHNIQUE:
This technique is similar to brainstorming but the participants in this do
not know each other and they are not at the same place . They will identify
the factors without consulting other participants . The facilitator like in
brainstorming sums up the identified factors.
INTERVIEW/EXPERT OPINION:
Experts or personnel with sufficient experience in a project can be a great
helping in avoiding/solving problems over and over again .
PAST EXPERIENCE:
Past experience from the same kind of project, the analogy can be
formed for identification of the factors . When comparing the
characteristics of projects will provide insight about the common factors.
CHECKLISTS:
These are simple and very useful predetermined lists of factors that are
possible for the project . The checklist which contains a list of the risks
identified in projects undertaken in the past and the responses to those risks
provides a head start in risk identification.
 QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS:

Prioritize the risks for a further analysis by accessing and combining their
probabilities of occurrence and impact . Questionnaires on the probability of
occurrence and the probability of consequence are used to analyze the
identified risks . Then, the matrices are developed to prioritize the risks for
each activity . From, the matrices , the risks are grouped into low risk ,
medium risk , and high risk groups , as shown in below table.
TABLE : Risk Matrix
 QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS:

• Analyze the effects on the construction project schedule . A network

diagram for the project is constructed using the estimated durations
of the uncertainties . The estimation can be made using risk branding
, the activities are grouped according to the types of risks . The
expected duration for each activity is estimated using three-point
estimation ; optimistic , most likely , and pessimistic . The estimated
duration for each activity depends on the types of risks , as shown in
the above table . Next , a schedule risk analysis is performed using
Monte Carlo simulation with Crystal Ball software . Firstly , key in
the activities , durations and all the feasible paths of the project
network diagram . Secondly , select probability duration for each
activity . Finally , define the required outputs and run the
simulation . The Ten thousand iterations had been performed to
forecast the completion time for this project as recommended by
Cosgrove.
 DATA COLLECTION

• COMMERCIAL BUILDING PROJECT

BRIDGE CONSTRUCTION PROJECT
STADIUM CONSTRUCTION PROJECT
 ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS

Key risk factors :

Risk factors are the issues, topics, or concerns that may
ultimately drive the behavior of the top-level schedule
and cost performance measures for a given activity.
• Key risk factors of the project schedule
• Earth work and foundation, RCC and steel work,
Brick work, M&E service, Interior and exterior work
and finishing works this are the several key risk
factor in commercial building project.
 COMMERCIAL BUILDING PROJECT

From the table key risk factor is;

• RCC and steel work, M&E
services are high risk their
optimistic and pessimistic duration
are -20% and +100%.
• Earth work and foundation,
Brick work, finishing work are
medium risk their optimistic and
pessimistic duration are -15% and
+50%.
• Interior and exterior work are low
risk their optimistic and pessimistic
duration are -5% and +20%.
 THE PROJECT COMPLETION TIME USING PERT
ANALYSIS
• To determine the completion time of the project using PERT
analysis, the three estimates of durations of all activities must
be considered.

• Calculation of expected duration and variaance

The Network Diagram For Commercial
Building
 Calculation Of Critical Path

• The critical path for the project is a-b-e-f-i-j-k-m-s-t-w.

using PERT, the expected project is 109.84 days.
 SIMULATION USING CRYSTAL BALL SOFTWARE
• The mean completion time of the project is 107.22 days with 10000 trails. This
is the same as obtained using PERT analysis. The minimum and maximum
completion times are 96.74 days and 120 days, respectively. The cumulative
frequency graph is given
• Frequency graph Cumulative frequency graph
 BRIDGE CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

Key risk factor of the project schedule :

• Planning and design, Pilling work, Earth

work and foundation, RCC and steel work,
M&E services, structural work and
finishing works. This are the several key
risk factor in bridge construction project.
 KEY RISK FACTORS OF THE PROJECT SCHEDULE

• From the table key risk factor is;

• RCC and steel work, M&E
services are high risk , their
optimistic and pessimistic
duration are -20% and +100%.
• Planning and design, Earth
work and foundation,
structural work, finishing
work are medium risk , their
optimistic and pessimistic
duration -15% and +50%.
• Pilling works are low risk,
their optimistic and pessimistic
duration are -5% and +20%.
 THE PROJECT COMPLETION TIME USING PERT
ANALYSIS
• To determine the completion time of the project using PERT
analysis, the three estimates of duration of all activities must be
considered.

• Calculation of expected duration and variance

The network diagram for bridge
construction
 Calculation of critical path

• The critical path for the project is A-B-C-D-G-H-I-N-O-P-

Q-S-T-U-V-W-Y. Using PERT, the expected project
duration is 165.2 days.
 SIMULATION USING CRYSTAL BALL SOFTWARE

• The mean completion time of the project is 165.2 days with 10000 trails. This
is the same as obtained using PERT analysis. The minimum and maximum
completion times are 145.7 days and 190.57 days, respectively. The cumulative
frequency graph is given.
• Frequency graph Cumulative frequency graph
 STADIUM CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

• Key risk factors of the project schedule:

• Pilling work, Earth work and foundation,
RCC and steel work, M&E services,
Structural work and finishing and
Inspection works .This are the several
key risk factor in stadium construction
project.
 KEY RISK FACTORS OF THE PROJECT SCHEDULE

• From the table key risk factor is;

• Pilling, Earth work and
foundation, M&E services,
Structural works are high
risk, their optimistic and
pessimistic duration are -20%
and +100%.
• RCC and steel works are
medium risk, their optimistic
and pessimistic duration are -
15% and +50%.
• Finishing and Inspection
works are low risk, their
optimistic and pessimistic
duration are -5% and +20%.
 THE PROJECT COMPLETION TIME USING PERT ANALYSIS

• To determine the completion time of the project using PERT analysis, the
three estimates of duration of all activities must be considered.

Calculation of expected duration and variance

THE NETWORK DIAGRAM FOR STADIUM
CONSTRUCTION
 CALCULATION OF CRITICAL PATH

• The critical path for the project is A-B-D-E-O-P-R-S. Using PERT, the
expected project duration is 804.83 days.
 SIMULATION USING CRYSTAL BALL SOFTWAR e
• The mean completion time of the project is 803.49 days with 10000 trails. This
is the same as obtained using PERT analysis. The minimum and maximum
completion times are 663.29 days and 1073.48 days, respectively. The
cumulative frequency graph given.
• Frequency graph Cumulative frequency graph
 RESULT AND DISCUSSION

• The construction project was analyzed to identify the risks that affect the project completion
time, and also to determine the probability of completing the project within the due date. The
results from the analysis have shown different sources of risks for each activity. From sources of
risks, the structure activities have seven sources, pilling and M&E services both have six sources,
and finishing works have three sources of risks. Therefore, pilling, structure, and M&E services
are considered as high risk activities, while finishing works can be considered as medium risk
activities. The three main sources of risks are ‘approval and permits’, ‘Heavy rain’ and ‘labor
shortage’ which both are the sources of risks for all activities. ‘Approval and permits’ is more
difficult to control as it deals with the external parties.
• ‘Labor shortage’ becomes uncertain because the workers are not hired directly by the main
contractor; they are hired by the subcontractors. When problems arise between the main
contractor and the subcontractors, usually due to wages, the project has the possibility of losing
the workers. For the probability of completing the project within the due date, the simulation
using Crystal Ball software had shown that there is a very low probability for the project to be
completed within most likely duration. This shows that the due date based on most likely
durations that had been used by the construction management team was not significant in an
uncertainty environment; it is unlikely to be achieved. The uncertainties lead the project
management to risks and problems. The construction schedule should be revised regularly, and
the changes of due date may occur repeatedly
 CONCLUSION
The uncertainties lead the project management to
risks and problems. To avoid delay in construction
project the risk and uncertainties were considered
while scheduling. The schedule of a four different
structure was collected with minimum of twenty
five activities. The key risk factors will be
identified. The qualitative and quantitative risk
analysis is completed. Finally determined the
probability of completing the project within the
agreed period by using crystal ball software.
 O U
K Y
A N
T H