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Population Dynamics and Growth Models

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Topics covered

  • population trends,
  • survival rates,
  • nutrients,
  • demographic transition,
  • toxic waste accumulation,
  • birth rate,
  • population dispersion,
  • logistic growth model,
  • population health,
  • age pyramids
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
27 views32 pages

Population Dynamics and Growth Models

Uploaded by

Meow MooMoo
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Topics covered

  • population trends,
  • survival rates,
  • nutrients,
  • demographic transition,
  • toxic waste accumulation,
  • birth rate,
  • population dispersion,
  • logistic growth model,
  • population health,
  • age pyramids

• In theory, populations of many organisms have

the potential to grow exponentially. This would


be represented by the gold line (J-shaped
curve) on the graph below.
POPULATION STRUCTURE
AND DYNAMICS
POPULATION ECOLOGY
• The study of how and why populations change

POPULATION
• Group of individuals of same species have SAME :
»general area
»resources
»environment

• Likely to interact and breed with each other


POPULATION DENSITY
• The number of individuals of a species per unit area or volume

POPULATION calculated from samples

Accuracy  when - # of samples 


- size of samples 
POPULATION DISPERSION PATTERNS
• The way individuals are spaced within their
area

DISPERSION PATTERNS
CLUMPED - Individuals grouped in patches  varying
habitat
UNIFORM- result of social interactions  competition
RANDOM - no pattern  rare
SURVIVORSHIP CURVES
• Plot the proportion of individuals from an initial
population that are alive at each age
3 TYPES OF SURVIVORSHIP
TYPE I
 Large mammals
 few offspring
 A lot of care for young
 most survive to older age
 Slow to mature
 Long life span

TYPE II intermediate -> constant


 lizards & rodents

TYPE III
 small animals
 Oysters, fish, insects
 very large number of offspring
 Little or no care
 Few survive
 Fast to mature
 Short life span
POPULATION GROWTH
MODELS
1) EXPONENTIAL GROWTH MODEL
= idealized picture of unregulated population growth

G=rN
G = growth rate of the population
r = per capita rate of increase
(average contribution of each individual)
N = the population size

IDEAL ENVIRONMENT w UNLIMITED SPACE & RESOURCES


r = the maximum capacity of members of the population to
reproduce

Bacteria > rabbits > elephants


LIMITING FACTORS
1 ) Competition

2) Predation

3) Nutrients (wáter, food)

4) Availability of space

5) Population density
 affects health  survival
Increased disease transmission
Accumulation of toxic wastes
REPLICATIONS HOURS MINUTES NUMBER OF BACTERIA REPLICATIONS HOURS MINUTES NUMBER OF BACTERIA
36 12.0 720 68,719,476,736
1 37 12.3 740 137,438,953,472
1 0.3 20 2 38 12.7 760 274,877,906,944
2 0.7 40 4 39 13.0 780 549,755,813,888
3 1.0 60 8 40 13.3 800 1,099,511,627,776
4 1.3 80 16 41 13.7 820 2,199,023,255,552
5 1.7 100 32 42 14.0 840 4,398,046,511,104
6 2.0 120 64 43 14.3 860 8,796,093,022,208
7 2.3 140 128 44 14.7 880 17,592,186,044,416
8 2.7 160 256 45 15.0 900 35,184,372,088,832
9 3.0 180 512 46 15.3 920 70,368,744,177,664
10 3.3 200 1,024 47 15.7 940 140,737,488,355,328
11 3.7 220 2,048 48 16.0 960 281,474,976,710,656
12 4.0 240 4,096 49 16.3 980 562,949,953,421,312
13 4.3 260 8,192 50 16.7 1000 1,125,899,906,842,620
14 4.7 280 16,384 51 17.0 1020 2,251,799,813,685,250
15 5.0 300 32,768 52 17.3 1040 4,503,599,627,370,500
16 5.3 320 65,536 53 17.7 1060 9,007,199,254,740,990
17 5.7 340 131,072 54 18.0 1080 18,014,398,509,482,000
18 6.0 360 262,144 55 18.3 1100 36,028,797,018,964,000
19 6.3 380 524,288 56 18.7 1120 72,057,594,037,927,900
20 6.7 400 1,048,576 1 million 57 19.0 1140 144,115,188,075,856,000
21 7.0 420 2,097,152 58 19.3 1160 288,230,376,151,712,000
22 7.3 440 4,194,304 59 19.7 1180 576,460,752,303,423,000
23 7.7 460 8,388,608 60 20.0 1200 1,152,921,504,606,850,000
24 8.0 480 16,777,216 61 20.3 1220 2,305,843,009,213,690,000
25 8.3 500 33,554,432 62 20.7 1240 4,611,686,018,427,390,000
26 8.7 520 67,108,864 63 21.0 1260 9,223,372,036,854,780,000
27 9.0 540 134,217,728 64 21.3 1280 18,446,744,073,709,600,000
28 9.3 560 268,435,456 65 21.7 1300 36,893,488,147,419,100,000
29 9.7 580 536,870,912 66 22.0 1320 73,786,976,294,838,200,000
30 10.0 600 1,073,741,824 1 billion 67 22.3 1340 147,573,952,589,676,000,000
31 10.3 620 2,147,483,648 68 22.7 1360 295,147,905,179,353,000,000
32 10.7 640 4,294,967,296 69 23.0 1380 590,295,810,358,706,000,000
33 11.0 660 8,589,934,592 70 23.3 1400 1,180,591,620,717,410,000,000
34 11.3 680 17,179,869,184 71 23.7 1420 2,361,183,241,434,820,000,000
35 11.7 700 34,359,738,368 SEXTILLION 72 24.0 1440 4,722,366,482,869,650,000,000
2) LOGISTIC GROWTH MODEL
= idealized population growth that is slowed by limiting factors as the population size
increases
G = r N (K – N )
K
LIMITING FACTORS
= environmental factors that restrict population growth
e.g. food, predators

CARRYING CAPACITY ( = K )
The maximum population size an environment can sustain
= resources are finite

CONCLUSION
Population growth is :
LOW – when population size is SMALL or LARGE
HIGH – when population size is MEDIUM

Population stabalizes at K (carrying capacity) where birth rate = death rate


3) BOOM & BUST CYCLE
BOOM = rapid exponential growth
BUST = population falls to minimal level

e.g. Lemmings – small rodents that live in tundra


MISCONCEPTION
= mass suicide
APPLICATIONS
Manage natural resources
↑ populations  we harvest
 to save from extinction

↓ populations  pests

SUSTAINABLE RESOURCE MANAGEMENT


Harvest crops without damaging resource

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED YIELD


Harvest  level with consistent yield with no decline
Best  intermediate level relative to carrying capacity
CANADIAN COD FISHING
NEWFOUNDLAND, CANADA
1497 – cod would literally jump on boat
1951 – factory fishing & super trawlers
1990 – population crashed from overfishing
??? – population recovered, moratorium ended
WHY ?  OVERFISHING, GREED & POOR ADMINISTRATION
HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH
HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH
HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH
1500 
HIGH Birth rate > HIGH death rate
Birth rate – death rate ≈ 0
small difference  LOW growth

1700-1900
Economic development in U.S. & Europe
Better nutrition, sanitation, health care
Death rate ↓

1850s 
Developing world improved
Birth rates >>> death rates  population explosion
HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH
1960s – birth control ↑  birth rate ↓
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
1) ZERO POPULATION GROWTH
HIGH Birth rate ≈ HIGH death rate

2) POPULATION EXPLOSION
HIGH Birth rate >>>> LOW death rate

3) ZERO POPULATION GROWTH


LOW Birth rate ≈ LOW death rate

COUNTRIES
DEVELOPED  finished transition
DEVELOPING  still in middle
REASONS FOR BIRTH RATE DECREASE
1 ) BIRTH CONTROL

2 ) MORE EDUCATION FOR WOMEN

3 ) WOMEN MARRYING AT A LATER AGE

4 ) FEWER CHILDREN
AGE PYRAMIDS
Mexico

United States
EFFECTS OF AGE
PROJECTION
All countries will become similar to developed countries
in age distribution  start ageing

Children large ↓
Adults small ↑
Seniors large ↑
TRENDS IN MEXICO
TRENDS
• Death rate ↓

• Birth rate ↓

• Growth rate ↓
1960 – 3.3 %
2000 – 1.8 %
2005 –1 %
2030 – 0.6 %

(getting closer to 0)
EFFECTS OF AGE in 2020
2000 2020
CHILDREN  6 million less
ADOLESCENTS & ADULTS - 60 million  78 million
SENIORS - 6.8 million  15 million

NEED LESS :
• Schools & teachers
• Hospitals for births

NEED MORE :
• houses  18 million more
• jobs and universities
• Health care for seniors
ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT
a measure of human demand on the Earth's ecosystems.

1 ) UNRESTRAINED POPULATION GROWTH


 Developing countries

2 ) OVERCONSUMPTION
 Developed countries

Common questions

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The demographic transition involves several stages: initially, high birth and death rates lead to population stability; subsequently, death rates decline due to improved healthcare and sanitation, causing rapid population growth . Eventually, birth rates decrease as a result of increased access to contraception and women's education, stabilizing populations once more . Socioeconomically, these transitions impact labor markets, healthcare systems, and economic development. Developing countries face challenges in providing sufficient infrastructure and services during population explosions, whereas developed nations navigate aging populations, requiring policies for pension systems and healthcare for the elderly .

In developed countries, demographic transition leads to zero population growth where both birth and death rates are low, resulting in stable populations and allowing for sustainable resource management . Conversely, developing countries experiencing a population explosion due to high birth rates and declining death rates need to manage rapid growth, which can strain resources and hinder sustainable practices . Effective resource management in these regions must address overconsumption and develop educational and contraceptive measures to stabilize their populations .

The exponential growth model represents an unregulated population growth where the growth rate is constant and resembles a J-shaped curve, assuming an ideal environment with unlimited resources, allowing populations to grow indefinitely . In contrast, the logistic growth model accounts for environmental constraints and incorporates limiting factors that slow down population growth as it nears the carrying capacity (K) of the environment, eventually stabilizing when the birth rate equals the death rate, resulting in an S-shaped curve .

Human demographic transition, characterized by a shift from high birth and death rates to low rates, has altered ecological footprints by decreasing growth in developed countries and increasing consumption rates as economies mature . Developed nations have smaller population growth but higher per capita consumption, leading to larger ecological footprints, primarily through overconsumption of resources . In contrast, developing countries experience rapid population growth, contributing to unrestrained ecological pressure, primarily due to the demand for basic resources, straining the environment further as they progress through the demographic transition .

Social interactions significantly influence population dispersion patterns. Uniform dispersion often results from competition and social behaviors such as territoriality, providing evolutionary advantages like optimized resource use and reduced intraspecies competition . Clumped dispersion can enhance survival through cooperative behaviors like group foraging or predator defense, while random dispersion might occur in environments where resources are abundant and evenly distributed, minimizing competitive pressure . These patterns can evolve based on environmental pressures and resource availability, contributing to survival and reproductive success.

Carrying capacity is affected by environmental factors such as food availability, predation pressure, space, and available resources. These factors limit population growth by slowing it as populations approach the carrying capacity, thus influencing the shift from exponential to logistic growth models . In logistic growth, the growth rate decreases as population size approaches carrying capacity, stabilizing when the environment can no longer support additional individuals .

Survivorship curves, which depict the number of individuals surviving at each age, can guide conservation efforts by highlighting vulnerability stages in species' life cycles. Type I species, with long life spans and limited offspring, require measures to protect juveniles and adult habitats . Type II curves suggest constant mortality, calling for regular protection across ages. Type III species, having many offspring with high early mortality, necessitate the preservation of early life stages, such as egg or larval habitats . Conservation strategies should tailor protective actions based on the specific survivorship traits of a species to maximize effectiveness.

Type I survivorship curves are characterized by high survival rates of the young, extensive parental care, and mortality concentrated at older ages, as seen in large mammals . Type II curves depict constant mortality rates throughout life, typical of lizards and rodents . Type III curves indicate high mortality at early stages, offset by large numbers of offspring, with few individuals reaching maturity, common in species like fish and insects . These elements influence survival strategies by dictating parental care levels, reproductive rates, and strategies for resource allocation across different life stages, crucial for adaptation to specific environmental conditions.

Understanding population density is crucial for managing disease transmission because high densities can enhance pathogen spread through increased contact rates among individuals. Management strategies might include reducing population density via habitat management, culling, or promoting dispersal to minimize contact . In species with clumped dispersion, localized outbreaks may necessitate targeted interventions. Furthermore, monitoring density fluctuations can predict and mitigate epidemic risks, adapting responses to environmental changes that affect population concentration, thereby controlling disease vectors and reducing transmission .

Maximum sustained yield (MSY) involves harvesting the maximum amount of a resource without compromising future yields, maintaining the population at an intermediate level relative to its carrying capacity . This concept can be applied by regulating harvest levels to match the natural replenishment rate of resources, ensuring long-term sustainability. It requires careful monitoring and management of environmental conditions, resource population dynamics, and human impacts to prevent overexploitation, as demonstrated by the overfishing crisis of the Canadian cod . Implementing MSY in fisheries, forestry, and other renewable resource sectors can avert depletion and maintain ecosystem balance.

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