Chapter 4
Probability and
Counting Rules
Danet Hak, PhD December 3, 2024
Outline
1. Sample Spaces and Probability
2. The Addition Rules for
Probability
3. The Multiplication Rules and
Conditional
4. Counting Rules
5. Probability and Counting Rule
Probability
Objectives
1. Determine Sample Spaces
2. Find the probability of an event using
classical probability & empirical
probability
3. Find the probability of compound
events using the addition rules
4. Find the probability of compound
events using the multiplication rules
5. Find the conditional probability of an
event
Danet Hak, PhD December 3, 2024
Terminology and concepts
Probability: likelihood of an event to
occur.
A probability experiment is a chance
process that leads to well-defined
results called outcomes ( Ex. processes such as
flipping a coin, rolling a die, or drawing a card from a deck)
An outcome is the result of a single
trial of a probability experiment.
A trial means flipping a coin once,
rolling one die once, or the like
Terminology and concepts
A sample space is the set of all possible
outcomes of a probability experiment.
An event: a set of outcomes of a probability
experiment (a result of probability experiment).
Simple event : an event with one outcome
(e.g., getting number 6 from rolling a die)
Compound even: an event with two or more
outcome or events (e.g., getting odd number from
rolling a die)
Tree diagram
A tree diagram is a device consisting of line segments
emanating from a starting point and also from the outcome
point. It is used to determine all possible outcomes of a
probability experiment.
Example:
Tree diagram of child
gender for having 3 children
Basic interpretations of
Probability
There are three basic interpretations of
probability:
1. Classical probability: assumes that all outcomes in
the sample space are equally likely to occur. (e.g., when a
single die is rolled, each outcome has the same probability of occurring. Since there
are six outcomes, each outcome has a probability of 1/6)
2. Empirical or relative frequency probability: relies on
actual experience to determine the likelihood of
outcomes (e.g., one might actually roll a given die 6000 times, observe the
various frequencies, and use these frequencies to determine the probability of an
outcome)
3. Subjective probability: based on an educated guess
or estimate, employing opinions and inexact
information. It is based on a person experience about
the event. (e.g., A physician might say that, on the basis of her diagnosis,
Classical probability
(Each outcomes in the sample space is equally likely to occur)
Probabilities can be expressed as fractions, decimals, or—where appropriate
— percentages.
Strictly speaking, a percent is not a probability. However, in everyday language,
probabilities are often expressed as percent (i.e., there is a 60% chance of rain tomorrow)
Classical probability
(Example)
1. Rolling a die
When rolling a die, find the probability of getting:
a) Number 6
b) Number 0
Solutions:
Number of outcome in sample space, n(S) =
Number of outcome in E, n(E) =
Classical probability
(Example)
Drawing Cards
When drawing a card from a deck, find the probability of
getting: a) a queen ; b) a 6 of clubs (clover) ; c) a 2 or a
heart; d) a 2 or a 5
Solutions:
Classical probability
(Example)
Drawing Cards
When drawing a card from a deck, find the probability of
getting: a) a Jack of diamond, b) a king of spade or a 6 of
clubs ; c) a 2 of heart or a diamond
Solutions:
Classical probability
(Example)
Gender of children
If a family has three children, find the probability that two
of the three children are girls.
Solutions 1:
Number of outcome in sample space, n(S) =
Number of outcome in E, n(E) =
Basic probability rules
Rule 1: The probability of any event (E) is a number
between and including 0 and 1.
0≤ P(E)≤ 1
Rule 2: If an event E cannot occur (i.e., the event contains
no members in the sample space), its probability is 0.
Rule 3: If an event E is certain, then the P(E) = 1. or If
P(E)=1, then the event E is certain to occur
(e.g., when rolling a die, find the probability of getting the value that is less than 7)
Rule 4: The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes
in the sample space is 1.
For example, in the roll of a die, each outcome in the sample space has a probability of
1/6. Hence, the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes is:
Complementary Events
The complement of an event E, denoted by E is the set
of outcomes in the sample space that are not included
in the outcomes of event E.
e.g., When rolling a die, the sample space consists of the outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4,
5, and 6. The event E of getting odd numbers consists of the outcomes 1, 3,
and 5. The event of not getting an odd number is called the complement of
event E, and it consists of the outcomes 2, 4, and 6.
Complementary Events
Rule for complementary Events
If the probability of an event or the probability of
its complement is known, then the other can be
found by subtracting the probability from 1.
Complementary Events
Example:
Find the complement of each event and its corresponding
probability.
a. Rolling a die and getting a 4
b. Selecting a month and getting a month that begins with a J
c. Selecting a day of the week and getting a weekday
Solutions:
Complementary Events
Example:
When drawing a card from the deck,
1. Find the probability of not getting a diamond.
2. Find the probability of not getting a heart or a 2.
2. The probability of getting a 4 spade is P(4spade)=1/52.
Find the probability of not getting a 4 spade.
Solutions:
Empirical Probability
=> Empirical probability relies on actual
experiment to determine the likelihood of
outcomes.
Empirical Probability
Example: In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A
blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB blood. Set up a frequency
distribution and find the following
probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
d. A person does not have type AB blood.
Empirical Probability
Example: Hospital records indicated that knee replacement patients stayed in
the hospital for various number of days shown in the distribution.
Find these probabilities.
a. A patient stayed exactly 5 days.
b. A patient stayed less than 6 days.
c. A patient stayed at most 4 days.
d. A patient stayed at least 5 days.
Subjective Probability
Þ Subjective probability uses a probability value
based on an educated guess or estimate,
employing opinions and inexact information.
Þ In subjective probability, a person or group
makes an educated guess at the chance that
an event will occur. This guess is based on the
person’s experience and evaluation of a
solution.
Example: A physician might say that, on the
basis of her diagnosis, there is a 30% chance the
patient will need an operation.
The Addition Rules for Probability
Mutually exclusive Vs not Mutually exclusive events
Þ Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot
occur at the same time, otherwise they are not.
e.g., The events of getting a 4 or getting a 6 when a single card is
drawn from a deck are mutually exclusive events, since a single
card cannot be both a 4 and a 6.
e.g., The events of getting a 4 and getting a heart on a single
draw are not mutually exclusive, since you can select the 4 of
hearts when drawing a single card from an ordinary deck.
The Addition Rules for Probability
Examples
Drawing a Card
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and which are
not when a single card is drawn from a deck.
a. Getting a 7 and getting a jack
b. Getting a club and getting a king
c. Getting a face card and getting an ace
d. Getting a face card and getting a spade
Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and which are
not, when a single die is rolled.
a. Getting an odd number and getting an even number
b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number
c. Getting an odd number and getting a number less than 4
d. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number less than 4
The Addition Rules for Probability
When A and B are
mutually exclusive
=> P(A and B) = 0
The Addition Rules for Probability
Examples
Selecting a Medical Staff Person
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7
nurses and 3 physicians are females. If a staff person is
selected, find the probability that the subject is a nurse or a
male.
The Addition Rules for Probability
Examples
Rolling Die
Two dice are rolled. Find the probability of getting:
a. A sum of 8 or 10
b. Doubles or a sum of 7
c. A sum greater than 9 or less than 4
d. Based on the answers to a, b, and c, which event is
less likely to occur?
The Multiplication Rules and Conditional
Probability
=> Two events A and B are independent events
if the fact that A occurs does not affect the
probability of B occurring.
The multiplication rules can be used to find the
probability of two or more events that occur in
sequence/indepedently.
– For example, if you toss a coin and then roll a die, you can find the
probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die. These two
events are said to be independent since the outcome of the first
event (tossing a coin) does not affect the probability outcome of the
second event (rolling a die).
The Multiplication Rules and Conditional
Probability
Þ To find the probability of two independent
events that occur in sequence, you must find
the probability of each event occurring
separately and then multiply the answers.
Example: It a coin is tossed twice, the
probability of getting two heads is (1/2)*(1/2)
=1/4.
This result can be verified by looking at the sample
space HH, HT, TH, TT. Then P(HH) = 1/4.
The Multiplication Rules and Conditional
Probability
Example 1:
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting
a head on the coin and a 4 on the die.
The Multiplication Rules and Conditional
Probability
Example 2:
A card is drawn from a deck and replaced; then a second
card is drawn. Find the probability of getting a Queen
and then a King.
The Multiplication Rules and Conditional
Probability
Example:
Approximately 9% of men have a type of color blindness
that prevents them from distinguishing between red and
green. If 3 men are selected at random, find the probability
that all of them will have this type of red-green color
blindness.
The Multiplication Rules and Conditional
Probability
=> When the outcome or occurrence of the first
event affects the outcome or occurrence of the
second event in such a way that the probability is
changed, the events are said to be dependent
events.
Example: Drawing a card from a deck and then make a
second draw without returning the first draw.
Þ To find probabilities when events are dependent, use the
multiplication rule with a modification in notation.
The Multiplication Rules and Conditional
Probability
e.g, Find the probability of getting a Queen and then a King from two
successive draws of a card. Note that the first draw is not replaced
before making second draw.
Called “Conditional probability”
The Multiplication Rules and Conditional
Probability
Drawing Cards
Three cards are drawn from an ordinary deck (one by one) and not
replaced. Find the probability of these events.
a. Getting 3 jacks
b. Getting an ace, a king, and a queen in order
c. Getting a club, a spade, and a heart in order
d. Getting 3 clubs
Use of Tree diagrams for sequential
events
Example: Box 1 contains 2 red balls and 1 blue ball. Box 2 contains 3 blue
balls and 1 red ball. A coin is tossed. If it falls heads up, box 1 is selected
and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up, box 2 is selected and a ball is drawn.
Find the probability of selecting a red ball.
(1/2) x (2/3)= 2/6 =1/3
(1/2) x (1/3)= 1/6
(1/2) x (1/4)= 1/8
(1/2) x (3/4)= 3/6 =1/2
Probabilities for “At Least”
The multiplication rules can be used with the complementary
event rule to simplify solving probability problems involving “at
least.”
Tossing Coins
A coin is tossed 5 times. Find the probability of getting at least 1 tail.
Probabilities for “At Least”
Drawing Cards
A game is played by drawing 4 cards from an ordinary deck and
replacing each card after it is drawn. Find the probability that at least 1
ace is drawn.
Next topic…....
Counting Rules
Objectives
Determine the number of outcomes to a
sequence of events using a tree diagram.
Find the total number of outcomes in a
sequence of events using the multiplication
rule.
Find the number of ways r objects can be
selected from n objects using the
permutation rule.
Find the number of ways r objects can be
selected from n objects without regard to
order using the combination rule.
Outlines
Introduction
Tree Diagrams and the
Multiplication Rule for
Counting
Permutations and
Combinations
Introduction
Counting rules or counting techniques is
the methodology used for identifying the
number of all possible outcomes for
a sequence of events.
Þ Different ways can be used including:
o fundamental counting rule (tree diagram
and multiplication rules),
o permutation rule
o combination rule
Fundamental counting rule
(tree diagram and multiplication rules)
Example 1: A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Find the number of
outcomes for the sequence of events.
First event: Tossing a coins => k1= 2 possible outcomes
Second event: Rolling a die => k2 = 6 possible outcomes
Total outcomes of the events = K1 .K2
= 2 x 6 = 12
You can also create a tree diagram and
count the possible outcome based on it.
Tree Diagram
Ex., Suppose a sales person can travel from New York to
Pittsburgh by plane, train, or bus, and from Pittsburgh to
Cincinnati by bus, boat, or automobile. Display the information
using a tree diagram (find the possible travel choice).
The Multiplication Rule
Multiplication Rule : In a
sequence of n events in which the
first one has k1 possibilities and
the second event has k2 and the
third has k3, and so forth, the total
possibilities of the sequence will
be k1k2k3kn.
The Multiplication Rule
e.g., A nurse has three patients to visit. How many
different ways can she make her rounds if she visits each
patient only once?
The Multiplication Rule (example 2)
e.g., Employees of a large corporation are to be issued
special coded identification cards. The card consists of 4
letters of the alphabet (26 letter). Each letter can be
used up to 4 times in the code. How many different ID
cards can be issued?
Solution:
The Multiplication Rule (example 3)
e.g., The digits 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 are to be used in a 4-digit
ID card.
a) How many different cards are possible if repetitions
are permitted?
b) What if the repetitions were not permitted?
Solution:
The Multiplication Rule
Example 2: A paint manufacturer wishes to manufacture several different paints.
The categories include:
How many different kinds of paint can be made if you can select one color,
one type, one texture, and one use?
Permutation rules
Consider the possible arrangements of the letters
a, b, and c.
The possible arrangements are: abc, acb, bac,
bca, cab, cba.
If the order of the arrangement is important then
we say that each arrangement is a permutation of
the three letters. Thus there are six permutations
of the three letters.
abc acb bac bca cab cba
Permutation rules
Permutation Rule : The arrangement of n objects
in a specific order using r objects at a time is
called a permutation of n objects taken r objects at
a time. It is written as nPr and the formula is given
by:
nPr = n! / (n – r)!.
Example: How many different ways can a chairperson and
an assistant chairperson be selected for a research project
if there are seven scientists available?
Solution:
Number of ways = 7P2 = 7! / (7 – 2)! = 7!/5! = 42.
Permutation rules
Example 2: How many different ways can 5 books be
arranged on a shelf if they can be selected from 10 books?
Permutation rules
Example 3: The advertising director for a
television show has 8 ads to use on the program. If
she selects 1 of them for the opening of the show,
1 for the middle of the show, and 1 for the ending
of the show, how many possible ways can this be
accomplished?
Combination rules
• Consider the possible arrangements of
the letters a, b, and c.
• The possible arrangements are: abc, acb,
bac, bca, cab, cba.
• If the order of the arrangement is not
important then we say that each
arrangement is the same. We say there is
one combination of the three letters.
abc = acb = bac = bca = cab = cba
Combination rules
Combination Rule : The number of combinations of r
objects from n objects is denoted by nCr and the formula is
given by nCr = n! / [(n – r)!r!] .
Example: How many combinations of four alphabet (A, B,
C, D) that are there taken two at a time?
Solution:
Number of combinations:4C2 = 4! / [(4 – 2)! 2!] = 4!/[2!2!] = 6.
Possible combination for each taken:
AB, AC, AD, BA, BC, BD, CA, CB,CD, DA, DB, DC,
The arrangement is not important, then:
AB=BA; AC=CA, AD=DA, BC=CB, BD=DB, CD=DC => only
6 ways remaining
Combination rules
Example: In order to survey the opinions of
customers at local malls, a researcher decides to
select 4 malls from a total of 10 malls in a specific
geographic area. How many different ways can
the selection be made?
Combination rules
Example: In a class of 25 students, the teacher
wants to divide the students in to 5 groups of
equal number, so that they can work on their
group assignment. How many possibility can the
group be made?
Combination rules
Example: In a club there are 7 women and 5
men. A committee of 3 women and 2 men is to
be chosen. How many different possibilities are
there?
Combination rules
Example: A committee of 5 people must be
selected from 5 men and 8 women. How many
ways can the selection be made if there are at
least 3 women on the committee?
• Solution = (8C3 5C2 ) + (8C4 5C1) + (8C5 5C0)
Summary
End of Lecture
