INDICATORS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE

CHANGE ANNUAL REPORT (2023)

MUHAMMAD AMAR QURESHI
BS FORESTRY :- 23-27
 TABLE OF
CONTENT
• Abstracts
• Introduction
• Indicators
• Emissions of Green House Gases
• Combination of Green House Gas
Concentration
• Effective Radiative Forcing (EFR)
• Earth Energy Imbalance
• Global Surface Temperature
ABSTRACT
• The whole report is from intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC)
which are the trusted source of the scientific evidence for the climate change and
that negotiation take place under united nation frame work on climate change
(UNFCC)
• Successive IPCC reports are published at an interval of 5-10 years .
• In order to find the indicators of climate change different methods are used in
(IPCC) under AR6 (assessment report) which in results produce datasets of the
key climate indicators which are available in the public domain
• Now according to (IPCC) the indicators of climate change through out a decade
from 2013-14 to 2023 in which an average increase of warming was observed of
(1.19C’) of which (1.0 to1.4C’) rise is human induced .
• Human induced warming has been increasing over years at the rate of (0.26)
c’ from year 2013-2023 over a decade
• According to the report and IPCC mostly warming is caused by the green house
gases emission and its combination and over the decade its release have been
excessive except that of CO2
• The co2 emission has slowed as compared to the 2000s which was the result
of societal choices and continued series of these annual reports which cause
awareness in people
INTRODUCTION
• The IPCC has provided an assessment of the human influence on the
key indicators of the state of climate grounded in data up to year of
2022-23
• The next IPCC AR7 report will be presented in the end of the decade
these IPCC reports and indicators of global climate change (IGCC) was
initiated to provide policymakers with annual updates of the latest
scientific understanding on climate system and human influence
• BREIF HISTORY OF IPCC :- the IPCC was established in 1988 by the
united nation environment program (UNEP) and its first assessment
report came in 1990 which highlighted the potential impacts of climate
change – this report played a significant role in the establishment of the
united nation frame work (UNFCCC) in 1992 .
• Second assessment report came in 1995 this report provided crucial
scientific input for the Kyoto protocol negotiation which resulted in the
1997 agreement where industrialized countries committed to their
green house gases emission
• Third assessment report came in 2001 where the human influence on
the climate was greatly emphasized which results in the continuation
of the Kyoto protocol process and further negotiation
• Fourth assessment report was presented in 2007
• Fifth assessment report(2013-2014) provided a comprehensive
assessment of climate change reinforcing the need of urgent action
and this report was instrumental in shaping the negotiation leading to
the paris agreement in 2015 where 196 countries agreed to limit the
global warming and take mitigative measurers .
• The sixth assessment report is the report of the 2023 the AR6
provides an update about the science of climate change its impacts
and the mitigation strategies now the AR6 is divided into three main
working groups(WG)
• 1- working Group I (WGI) :- this group assesses the physical science
of the climate change including observation understanding of climate
processes and the projection of the future climate changes
• 2-Working Group II (WGII):- this group gives the report of the impacts
of the climate change on the ecosystem, biodiversity ,and human
system .
• 3- Working Group III (WGIII):- this group gives methods of the
mitigation of the climate change exploring the means to reduce or
prevent the green house gas emission.
 INDICTORS
• EMISSIONS :- it is one of the major cause and indicator of the global climate
change these emission includes mainly green house gases like CH4 ,CO2, N2O,
• According to AR6 mostly the green house gases are released from the
anthropogenic sources directly or indirectly reported under the (UNFCCC)
• Which includes the emission of the CO2 from the fossil fuels and industry besides
this CH4 ( METHAN ) ,N2O (NITROUS OXIDE) fluorinated gases emission from the
fossil fuel combustion from industrial processes
• deforestation and the agricultural practices also participate in the increase of the
concentration of the green house gases cause forest act as carbon sink
absorbing CO2 From atmosphere while such innovative practices should be
through which the methane and the nitrous oxide emission can be reduced
• Although the fluorinated gases emission is less as compared to the other major
gases but they also have some adverse effect on the environment
• The F-gases includes hydrofluorocarbons ,perfluorocarbon ,sulfur
hexafluoride ,
• Whose emission is from electronic industry and tools these F-gases are
also called (ODS) ozone depleting substance in AR 6 the GHG emissions
were calculated as the sum of all the green house gases from EDGAR
( emission database for global atmospheric research ) controlled by the
(JRC) joint research center in European commission
WELL MIXED GHG
CONCENTRATION
• As from the reports of the 2023 the best estimate global mean
concentration is 52 well mixed green house gases
• But according to the AR6 of the IPCC the key well mixed green house
gases and their concentrations are as follow
• CARBON DIOXIDE (CO2) :- the global average concentration of co2 in
2019 was (410 ppm) part per million and until 2023 the concentration of
the co2 is increased by 9.2 ppm
METHAN (CH4) :- The global average concentration of methane in 2019 was 1866 ppb ( part per
billion )while till 2023 a major increase of 56 ppb has taken place already
NITROUS OXIDE (N2O) :- the global average concentration of the nitrous oxide in 2019 was 332
ppb and an increase of 4.8 ppb is done until 2023
HALOCARBONS :- these includes a variety of the of gases such as CFCs ,HFCs ,and others their
concentration are generally lower than that of the main green house gases like CO2 , CH4 but
have significance in global warming and plays a crucial role In the ozone depletion work as (ODS)
AR 6 states that the concentration of these gases has been increasing significantly since pre
industrial times due to human activities fossil fuel combustion deforestation industrial
processes ,
This report emphasizes over the critical need of reduction of those emission to mitigate climate
change impacts
All the concentration of the gases and their report are taken from (NOAA) NATIONAL OCEANIC
ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION it is the scientific agency under united states department which
focuses on the oceans ,waterways, and atmosphere.
Montreal gases ( the halo carbons or the ozone depleting gases ) their concentration has been
recorded to decline from 1032ppt to 1004 ppt
 NON-METHANE SHORT LIVED
CLIMATE FORCES
• Besides the green house gases there are the (NM-SLCFs) which are basically the
pollutants that have relatively short atmospheric lifetimes and can influence the
climate according to AR 6 report of 2023.
• BLACK CARBON :- it is the component of the particular matter that is formed from
the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels ,biofuel, which absorbs sunlight and heat
in the atmosphere
• TROPOSPHERIC OZONE :- The secondary pollutant formed by the reaction
between Nitrogen oxides (NOX) and the volatile organic compound (VOCs) in the
presence of the sunlight it act as a green house gas and is also a harmful to
human health
• Besides them carbon monoxide ,volatile organic compound ,hydrofluorocarbons,
sulfur dioxide and many other gases act as (NM-SLCFs)
EFFECTIVE RADIATIVE
FORCING (EFR)
According to the AR6 report of the 2023 ERF is a key concept which refers to the
quantification of the earth energy imbalance of earth atmosphere due to various drivers
It represent the factors ( like green house gases ,deforestation ,land use changes ) which
changes the balance between incoming sunlight and outgoing heat energy in the atmosphere
Normally the earth gets energy from the sun and losses energy by radiating heat back into
the space
The trapping of the heat is caused by CO2 and its increase causing imbalance
ERF uses the unit of watts per square meter (W/M2)
The ERF can be positive with regards of its value when it is causing warming and can be
negative when causing cooling
Like increase in co2 has positive ERF leading to warming while aerosols like sulfate can have
a negative ERF ,leading to cooling
EARTH ENERGY
IMBALANCE
• The earth energy imbalance is the key concept involved is a key concept in the AR6 of the
report of 2023
• Earth energy imbalance represents the net gain or loss of the energy by the earth system it is
calculated as the difference between the amount of the solar energy absorbed by the earth and
the amount of energy radiated back by the earth surface
• A positive EEI means that the earth is absorbing more energy leading towards warming a
negative EEI leads towards cooling while currently the earth has a positive energy imbalance
• According to AR6 Report the earth is gaining energy at the rate of the 0.5 to 1 (w|m2) over the
recent decade
• The primary contributor to the EEI is the anthropogenic greenhouse gases such as CO2, CH4,
N20 which trap heat in the atmosphere the persistent positive EEI has a significant implication
for climate change
• The EEI is measured using a combination of the satellite observation ,
 GLOBAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURE
• The report of AR6 explains the global surface temperature refers
to the average temperature of the earth surface encompassing
both land and ocean areas
• It is a critical indicator used to assess the state of the earth
climate and how it is changing over time
• Global surface temperature is measured using a combination of
land based weather stations ,sea surface temperature data from
ships and satellite observations.
• Regional variations is there in the planet earth cause
temperature is not uniform out in whole planet and the arctic is
warming at much faster rate than the global average
• Increase in the global surface temperature are associated with the
range of environmental impact ,including more severe
heatwave ,melting glacier and ice caps ,rising sea level ,shifting
weather pattern ,
• Future temperature projection depends on the level of green gas
emission if emission continue to rise the global average temperature
could exceed 2 c’
•
 HUMAN INDUCED GLOBAL
WARMING
• Human induced global warming as described in the IPCC AR6 of 2023 refers to
rise in the global temperature caused by the human activities these activities
include the burning of the fossil fuels ,deforestation ,and various industrial
processes that release significant amount of the green house gases
• The report states that human activities have unequivocally caused global
warming with global surface temperature rise by approximately 1.1 c’
• The AR6 report highlights that the human induced warming is leading to
widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere ,ocean ,biosphere it includes
severe heatwaves changes in precipitation pattern changes in the weather
pattern ,sea level rise and the melting of glaciers and melting of the ice glacier
are irreversible changes that take over hundred and thousand of years even if
global temperature are stabilized
• In summary AR 6 report strongly asserts that human
activities are the primary driver of the recent global
warming and emphasizes on the reduction in the green
house gases and its emission
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