Project Management
Dr. Sherif
Elatriby
Course Code: IENG344/MENG531
Project
Management
Lecture No 6
Chapter III
Project Time
Management
Lecture Outline:
• Chapter III “Project Time Management”
– Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Lecture (6) Project Time Management 3
Project Time Management
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
PERT is a network analysis technique used to estimate project duration when
there is a high degree of uncertainty about the individual activity duration
estimates.
PERT is based on the assumption that an activity’s duration follows a
probability distribution instead of being a single value.
Three time estimates are required to compute the parameters of an
activity’s duration distribution:
Pessimistic time
Most likely time
Optimistic time
Lecture (6) Project Time Management 4
Project Time Management
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Pessimistic time (tp )
the time the activity would take if things did not go well
Most likely time (tm )
the consensus best estimate of the activity’s duration
Optimistic time (to )
the time the activity would take if things did go well
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Project Time Management
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Lecture (6) Project Time Management 6
Project Time Management
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Distribution
Lecture (6) Project Time Management 7
Project Time Management
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
PERT Formula and Example
Mean (expected time) =
optimistic time + 4X most likely time + pessimistic time
6
Example:
PERT Mean (expected time) =
8 workdays + 4 X 10 workdays + 24 workdays = 12 days
6
where :
8 = optimistic time, 10 = most likely time, and 24 = pessimistic time
Lecture (6) Project Time Management 8
Project Time Management
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
PERT Formula and Example
t p 4tm t o
t e
6
t p t o
( 2
) 2
6
project 2
cp
where : te = μ = mean (estimated time)
σ = standard deviation of activity
σcp = standard deviation of critical path activities
Lecture (6) Project Time Management 9
Project Time Management
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
Probability computation
Determine probability that project is completed within specified time:
Probability computations can be made using the normal distribution table.
X
Z
project
Where: = te = mean (project estimated time)
project = project standard deviation
X = (proposed ) specified time
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Project Time Management
PERT Example
An engineering project has the following activities, whose time estimates are
listed below:
Immed. Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
Activity Predec. Time (day) Time (day) Time (day)
A -- 4 6 8
B -- 1 4.5 5
C A 3 3 3
D A 4 5 6
E A 0.5 1 1.5
F B,C 3 4 5
G B,C 1 1.5 5
H E,F 5 6 7
I E,F 2 5 8
J D,H 2.5 2.75 4.5
Lecture (6) K Time Management
Project G,I 3 5 7 11
Project Time Management
PERT Example
Required:
1. Draw an arrow diagram representing the project.
2. Find the expected duration and variance for each activity
3. Compute ES, EF, LS, and LF for each activity
4. What are the critical path and the associated time?
5. Calculate the variance and standard deviation of the project.
6. What is the expected time for 68, 95, and 99 percent of completion?
7. Find the probability that the project will be completed in 25 days or less
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Project Time Management
PERT Example
1. PERT Network (AOA)
A E H J
B I K
F
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Project Time Management
PERT Example
2. Calculation of mean time(μ) and variance (σ2)
Activity Expected Time Variance
A 6 4/9
B 4 4/9
C 3 0
D 5 1/9
E 1 1/36
F 4 1/9
G 2 4/9
H 6 1/9
I 5 1
J 3 1/9
K 5 4/9
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Project Time Management
PERT Example
3. ES, EF, LS, and LF for each activity
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Project Time Management
PERT Example
4. Determination of critical path and its time:
The critical path is: (ACFIK)
The critical path time = 6+3+4+5+5 = 23 day
5. The variance and standard deviation of the project
The variance of project
The variance of project = variance of critical path
= Variance)A + Variance)C + Variance)F +Variance)I +Variance)K
= 4/9 + 0 + 1/9 + 1 + 4/9 = 2
The standard deviation of project
4 1 4
project cp2 0 1 1.4142
9 9 9
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Project Time Management
PERT Example
6. The expected time for 68, 95, and 99 percent of completion
The expected time for 68 percent completion
pr (Z) = 0.68
From normal distribution tables:
At pr (Z) = 0.68 Z = 0.47
X
Z
project
X 23
0.47 X = 23.664 day
1.4142
Repeat the same steps to find expected time of 95 and 99 percent
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Project Time Management
Lecture (6) Project Time Management 18
Project Time Management
PERT Example
7. The probability that the project will be completed in 25 days
or less [X≤ 25]
X 25 23
Z 1.414
project 1.4142
From normal distribution tables
pr (Z ≤ 1.414) = 0.9207
Lecture (6) Project Time Management 19
Project Time Management
Comparison Between PERT & CPM
Both are Quantitative Techniques of Network
Analysis
Both are used as tools for Decision Making
Both involve drawing & analysis of Network Diagram
on various scores
PER CP
T
Probabilistic Model M
Deterministic Model
Related with activities Related with activities
of uncertain time of Well-Known time
Lecture (6) Project Time Management 20
