Discrete Probability Distributions
Dr. Syed Adnan Ali (PhD)
Assistant Professor
Visiting Department of Physiology
University of Karachi
05/07/25 [email protected]
Probability distributions
• Probability distributions describe the possible values of
the random variable
• Variables whose outcome can occur by chance, i.e. are
not fixed, are called random variables
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Probability Distribution
Probability distributions are classified into two groups.
• Discrete Probability Distribution
• Binomial , Poisson, Geometric, Hyper Geometric , etc
Continuous Probability Distributions
• Normal , Standard Normal, Chi Square, F , Students t
distribution etc
Binomial Experiments
• There are many probability experiments
for which the results of each trial can be
reduced to two outcomes: success and
failure. For instance, when a basketball
player attempts a free throw, he or she
either makes the basket or does not.
Probability experiments such as these are
called binomial experiments.
Definition
• A binomial experiment is a probability experiment that
satisfies the following conditions:
1. The experiment is repeated for a fixed number of trials,
where each trial is independent of the other trials.
2. There are only two possible outcomes of interest for
each trial. The outcomes can be classified as a success
(S) or as a failure (F).
3. The probability of a success, P(S), is the same for each
trial.
4. The random variable, x, counts the number of
successful trials.
Notation for Binomial Experiments
Symbol Description
n The number of times a trial is repeated.
p = P(S) The probability of success in a single
trial.
q = P(F) The probability of failure in a single trial
(q = 1 – p)
x The random variable represents a
count of the number of successes in n
trials: x = 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . n.
Ex. 1: Binomial Experiments
• Decide whether the experiment is a
binomial experiment. If it is, specify the
values of n, p and q and list the possible
values of the random variable, x. If it is
not, explain why.
1. A certain surgical procedure has an 85%
chance of success. A doctor performs the
procedure on eight patients. The random
variable represents the number of
successful surgeries.
Ex. 1: Binomial Experiments
Solution: the experiment is a binomial experiment
because it satisfies the four conditions of a
binomial experiment. In the experiment, each
surgery represents one trial. There are eight
surgeries, and each surgery is independent of
the others. Also, there are only two possible
outcomes for each surgery—either the surgery
is a success or it is a failure. Finally, the
probability of success for each surgery is 0.85.
n=8
p = 0.85
q = 1 – 0.85 = 0.15
x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Binomial Probabilities
There are several ways to find the probability of x
successes in n trials of a binomial experiment. One way
is to use the binomial probability formula.
Binomial Probability Formula
In a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly x
successes in n trials is:
x n x n! x n x
P ( x)n C x p q p q
(n x)! x!
Ex. 6: Finding Binomial Probabilities
• A survey indicates that 41% of American
women consider reading as their favorite
leisure time activity. You randomly select
four women and ask them if reading is
their favorite leisure-time activity. Find the
probability that (1) exactly two of them
respond yes, (2) at least two of them
respond yes, and (3) fewer than two of
them respond yes.
Ex. 6: Finding Binomial Probabilities
• #1-probability -Using n = 4, p = 0.41, q = 0.59 and x =2,
the that exactly two women will respond yes is:
P ( 2) 4 C 2 (0.41) 2 (0.59) 4 2
4!
(0.41) 2 (0.59) 4 2
( 4 2)!2!
24
(.1681)(.3481)
4
6(.1681)(.3481) .35109366
Ex. 6: Finding Binomial Probabilities
• #2--To find the probability that at least two women will respond yes, you can
find the sum of P(2), P(3), and P(4). Using n = 4, p = 0.41, q = 0.59 and x
=2, the probability that at least two women will respond yes is:
P ( 2) 4 C 2 (0.41) 2 (0.59) 4 2 .351093
3 4 3
P (3) 4 C3 (0.41) (0.59) 0.162653
P ( 4) 4 C 4 (0.41) 4 (0.59) 4 4 0.028258
P ( x 2) P ( 2) P (3) P ( 4)
.351093 .162653 028258
0.542
Ex. 6: Finding Binomial Probabilities
• #3--To find the probability that fewer than two women will respond yes, you
can find the sum of P(0) and P(1). Using n = 4, p = 0.41, q = 0.59 and x =2,
the probability that at least two women will respond yes is:
P (0) 4 C0 (0.41) 0 (0.59) 4 0 0.121174
P (1) 4 C1 (0.41)1 (0.59) 4 1 0.336822
P ( x 2) P (0) P (1)
..121174 .336822
0.458
Population Parameters of a Binomial
Distribution
Mean: = np
Variance: 2 = npq
Standard Deviation: = √npq
Binomial distribution
• Example: The proportion of people in the population with
the disease (the prevalence) is 15%, then P(Y=1)=0.15
and P(Y=0)=0.85.
• If we take a random sample of 5 people from this
population, find the probability that there will be 0,1,2,3,4,
or 5 people with the disease.
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The Binomial Probability Distribution
• The probability that no people P(X=0) of 5 have the
disease = 0.444
• The probability that exactly one person P(X=1) of 5 has
the disease =0 .392
• The probability that exactly two people P(X=2) of 5 have
the disease =0 .138
• The probability that exactly three people P(X=3) of 5
have the disease =0 .024
• The probability that exactly four people P(X=4) of 5 have
the disease = 0.002
• The probability that exactly five people P(X=5) of 5 have
the disease = .00008
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Using MS Office
• Open Excel program in your computer.
• Type =BINOMDIST(X,n,p,"False")
• Assign values of the required parameters,
• In this example x = 2, n = 5 , p = 0.15
• Answer will be 0.1381 ~= 0.14
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The Binomial Probability Distribution (Example)
• The binomial distribution can also be used to calculate
the probability of observing at least X successes, or
cases of disease, etc, in a population of size n in which
the true probability of disease is p.
• Example. The Cambodia prevalence of TB infection is
495 per 100,000 (0.00495), yet there have been 7 cases
in a school of 1000 children (0.007).
• You can compare this to the national prevalence.
• Probability would see 7 or more cases in 1000 students
if p=.00495?
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• Probability would see 7 or more cases in a
school of 1000 if p=.00495?
= p(X≥7 ) = p(x=7) + p(x=8) + . . . + p(X=1000)
OR
p(X≥7 ) = 1 – p(X<7) = 1 – {p(x=0) + p(x=1) + . . . + p(X=6)}
= 1 - 0.7698 = 0.2302
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Binomial distribution
Mean and Variance :
• The mean of a binomially distributed
random variable X is np
• This means that over a large number of
samples of size n with probability p of
success, the mean number of successes
(X) over the samples will be
approximately np
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Binomial distribution
Mean and Variance :
• The variance of a binomially distributed
random variable X is npq = np(1-p)
• This means that over a large number of
samples of size n, the sample variance of the
X’s will be approximately np(1-p)
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Binomial distribution
• Mean and Variance :
• So for our example with n=5 and p=.15, the
mean is: n(p) = 5(0.15) = 0.75
• The variance is: = 5(0.15)(0.85) = 0.6375
05/07/25
[email protected] Questions for Practice
• Suppose it is known that 60% of the Riyadh population
has fluorosis free teeth , if a random sample of 10
persons is selected from Riyadh , what is the probability
that exactly four persons have fluorosis free teeth?
(Ans : 0.1115)
• Suppose that in a certain hospital 52% of all recorded
births are male, if we randomly select five birth records
from this hospital , what is the probability that exactly
three of records will be male birth? (Ans: 0.32)
• What are the mean and variance in each case given
above?
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Fitting of Binomial Distribution
• Fit a binomial Distribution to the following
observed data,
No. of 0 1 2 3 4 Total
Head
Frequen 10 40 50 20 5 125
cy
Computation
• First we find Mean, and then equate to
“np” to find the “p” and then find the
probabilities.
x
fx
0 40 100 60 20
220
1.76
f 125 125
x 1.76 np
1.76
p 0.44
4
q 1 p 0.56
so, p ( X x ) nC x p x q n x 4C x (0.44) x (0.56) 4 x
where , x 0,1,2,3,4
Computation
Expected frequencies (fe)
X f P(X) =N.P(X)
0 10 0.098345 12.3
1 40 0.309084 38.6
2 50 0.364278 45.5
3 20 0.190812 23.9
4 5 0.037481 4.7
Fitting of Observed and
Expected Frequencies
Lab#03
• Fit a binomial distribution to the given data
set.
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total
f 6 20 28 12 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 80
