THE
CONTEMPORARY
WORLD
ELIAS VEGA AVENIDO
COLLEGE INSTRUCTOR
GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY
• AS ITS NAME SUGGESTS, GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY IS THE
STUDY OF THE WORLDWIDE POPULATION RATHER THAN THE
POPULATION OF A SPECIFIC COUNTRY, REGION, OR CITY.
• GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY IS USEFUL BECAUSE IT PROVIDES THE
"BIG PICTURE" OF THE ENTIRE HUMAN POPULATION
WITHOUT INFLUENCE FROM LOCAL ECONOMIC, CULTURAL,
OR GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS.
• DEMOGRAPHY AFFECTS EACH AND EVERY ASPECT OF OUR
LIVES – FROM THE WORLD ECONOMY AND SOCIAL POLICY, TO
CITY PLANNING AND CLIMATE CHANGE. DEMOGRAPHIC
ANALYSIS IS KEY TO UNDERSTANDING THE COMPLEX
DYNAMICS SHAPING THE FUTURE SOCIAL LANDSCAPE.
GLOBAL
DEMOGRAPHY
• IT IS A SINGULAR HISTORICAL PERIOD DURING WHICH MORTALITY AND
FERTILITY RATES DECLINE FROM HIGH TO LOW IN A PARTICULAR
COUNTRY OR REGION. THE BROAD OUTLINES OF THE TRANSITION ARE
SIMILAR IN COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD, BUT THE PACE AND
TIMING OF THE TRANSITION HAVE VARIED CONSIDERABLY.
• THE TRANSITION STARTED IN THE MIDDLE OR LATE 18TH CENTURY IN
EUROPE, WHEN DEATH RATES AND FERTILITY BEGAN TO DECLINE, AND
HAPPENED IN FRANCE AND EVEN TO THE UNITED STATES.
• TRANSITION STARTED IN OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD, ESPECIALLY IN
ASIA AND AFRICA DURING 20TH CENTURY. FOR EXAMPLE, LIFE
EXPECTANCY IN INDIA WAS ONLY 24 YEARS OLD IN THE EARLY 20TH
CENTURY, SAME WITH CHINA DURING 1929 TO 1931.
GLOBAL
DEMOGRAPHY
• FERTILITY DECLINE IN ASIA DIDN’T BEGAN UNTIL 1950s AND SO ON.
IN THE CASE OF JAPAN, IT WAS UNTIL 1930s THAT TOTAL FERTILITY
RATE DIDN’T DROP DOWN BELOW FIVE BIRTHS PER WOMEN.
• THIS RESULTED IN RAPID POPULATION GROWTH AFTER THE
SECOND WORLD WAR, AFFECTING THE AGE STRUCTURE OF ASIA
AND THE DEVELOPING WORLD.
• SPECIFICALLY, THE BABY BOOM IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD WAS
CAUSED BY THE DECLINING OF INFANT AND CHILD MORTALITY
RATES. THE WEST, ON THE OTHER HAND, EXPERIENCED BABY BOOM
THAT RESULTS FROM RISING BIRTH RATES.
GLOBAL
DEMOGRAPHY
• A REMARKABLE EFFECT OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IS THE
ENORMOUS GAP IN LIFE EXPECTANCY THAT EMERGED BETWEEN JAPAN
AND THE WEST ON ONE HAND AND THE REST OF THE WORLD ON THE
OTHER.
• BY 1820s, THE LIFE EXXPECTANCY AT BIRTH OF JAPAN AND THE WEST
WERE 12 YEARS GREATER THAN THAT OF OTHER COUNTRIES. IT
INCREASED BY 20 YEARS BY 1990.
• ALTHOUGH THERE WERE IMPROVEMENT IN LIFE EXPECTANCY ALL
THROUGHOUT THE WORLD IN 1900-1950, THE GAP HAS REACHED 22
YEARS. IN 1999, THE GAP DECLINED TO 14 YEARS. THESE DIFFERENCES
IN THE OF TRANSITIO AFFECTED THE GLOBAL POPULATION.
GLOBAL
DEMOGRAPHY
• DURING THE 19TH CENTURY, EUROPE AND WEST HAD AN INCREASED SHARE
IN WORLD’S POPULATION, FROM 22% TO 33%, WHILE ASIA AND OCEANIA’S
CONTRIBUTION FROM 69% TO 57%. INDIA AND CHINA SUFFERED FROM
ECONOMIC STAGNATION AND DECLINE DURING THAT TIME.
• THERE WAS A REVERSE IN GLOBAL POPULATION SHARES DURING THE 20 TH
CENTURY AS AFRICA, ASIA, LATIN AMERICA, AND OCEANIA HAD HIGH
LEVELS OF POPULATION GROWTH RATES.
• POPULATION GROWTH SHOWS A MORE REMARKABLE SHIFT. BETWEEN 1820
AND 1980, 69.3% OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION GROWTH OCCURRED IN
EUROPE AND WESTERN OFFSHOOTS. BETWEEN 1950 AND 2000, HOWEVER,
ONLY 11.7% OCCURRED IN THAT REGION.
GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY
• AGE DEPENDENCY RATIO IS THE RATIO OF PERSONS
IN THE "DEPENDENT" AGES (GENERALLY UNDER AGE
15 AND OVER AGE 64) TO THOSE IN THE
"ECONOMICALLY PRODUCTIVE" AGES (15-64 YEARS) IN
THE POPULATION. IT IS SOMETIMES DIVIDED INTO
THE OLD-AGE DEPENDENCY (THE RATIO OF PEOPLE
AGED 65 AND OLDER TO THOSE AGED 15-64 YEARS)
AND THE CHILD DEPENDENCY (RATIO OF PEOPLE
UNDER 15 TO THOSE AGED 15-64 YEARS).
GLOBAL
DEMOGRAPHY
• THE UNITED NATIONS PROJECTED THAT THE POPULATION GROWTH WILL BE SHIFTED
TOWARDS AFRICA. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT 2150, THE REGIONS’ SHARE TO THE WORLD
POPULATION WILL BE ALMOST 20%, RELATIVELY MUCH GREATER THAN ITS SHARE IN
1820 (7%), AND IN 1990 (6%).
• ALSO IN 2150, THERE WILL BE A PROJECTED INCREASE OF TWO BILLION IF WE
COMBINE THE POPULATIONS OF ASIA, LATIN AMERICA AND OCEANIA.
• IN TERMS OF THE AGE STRUCTURE, THE OVERALL TREND IN JAPAN AND THE WEST
WAS DOWNWARD UNTIL 1950. THEIR DEPENDENCY RATIO WAS CLOSE TO 0.5. IT ONLY
INCREASED, ALTHOUGH TEMPORARY, WHEN THE BABY BOOM AFTER THE SECOND
WORLD WAR OCCURRED.
• JAPAN’S DEPENDENCY RATIO, HOWEVER, INCREASED BETWEEN 1888 AND 1920. ITS
DEPENDENCY RATIO WAS HIGHER THAN THE WEST BETWEEN 1920 AND THE EARLY
1950S. IT DROPPED IN 1970 AND LATER SINCE ITS PRECIPITOUS DECLINE IN
CHILDBEARING DURING THE 1950S AND LOE FERTILITY RATES IN RECENT YEARS.
GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY
• THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES LIKE THE PHILIPPINES AND INDIA HAD
HIGHER DEPENDENCY RATIO IN THE WEST. A GREATER INCREASE IN
DEPENDENCY RATIO WAS CAUSED BY THE DECLINE IN INFANT AND
CHILD MORTALITY AND HIGH LEVELS OF FERTILITY, WHICH IS PEAK
AROUND 1970S.
• DEPENDENCY RATIO STARTED TO DISAPPEAR BECAUSE THERE IS A
DECLINE IN GLOBAL BIRTH RATE.
• FURTHERMORE, THE GAP IN FERTILITY BETWEEN THE WEST AND THE
LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES BECAME SMALLER BY 21ST CENTURY.
• OVER THE NEXT 50 YEARS, THE CASE OF DEPENDENCY RATIOS OF
THESE TWO AREAS IN THE WORLD WILL BE REVERSED. THE AGING OF
POPULATION WILL CAUSE A RISE IN DEPENDENCY RATIO, STARTING IN
THE WEST.
