Morning Bid: Seventh in a decade

By Mike Dolan

June 22 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets

Hopes for a gentle off-ramp to the U.S.-Iran war were always a bit optimistic despite last week’s release of a memorandum of understanding, and fresh threats over the weekend suggest there could be more back-and-forth ahead.

However, a seemingly successful start to peace talks in Switzerland calmed energy markets on Monday, with Brent crude futures slipping back below $80 per barrel ​first thing.

I’ll get into that and more ‌below.

But first, listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast. Subscribe to ​hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

SEVENTH IN A DECADE

Brent crude initially rose on claims by Tehran at the weekend that it had re-closed the Strait of ‌Hormuz. While traffic through the strait did drop on Sunday compared with an ⁠uptick on Friday, analysts still reckon movement is back up to ​about a quarter of pre-war levels, as the new 60-day ceasefire and talks get underway.

The positive signals out of Switzerland helped boost Asian markets on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI both closing higher. U.S. futures were slightly lower before the bell, however, and European shares were muted.

The other big development on Monday was the resignation of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose political crisis deepened last week after a by-election win by his key Labour ‌Party challenger Andy Burnham. Starmer will stay in his post until a new party leader - and prime minister - is selected, with Burnham seen as the overwhelming favourite. His successor will be the UK’s seventh leader in 10 years.

UK stocks slipped on the news, while sterling ‌and gilt yields were broadly steady. Markets will watch Labour Party developments closely for signs of how ‌the leadership process will unfold - as well as who may end up as finance minister.

Back on ‌Wall Street, markets are still digesting Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Federal Reserve chief and the week-old SpaceX IPO. A hawkish takeaway from the former sapped some of the ‌ebullience ‌from the latter late last week - though Wall Street indexes still finished higher on the week and the rocket maker remains up more than 30% from its listing price.

Elsewhere, the yen continued to languish past the 160-per-dollar level, close to a 40-year low. ⁠Markets are looking for signals that Japanese financial authorities may be shifting their communications ‌strategy in advance of another round of intervention.

A quieter week ahead on the events calendar includes the release of U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data ‌for May on Thursday, as well as June business surveys from around ⁠the world.

Chart of the day

Sterling was steady after Starmer resigned on Monday, ‌making way for what will be Britain’s seventh leader in the decade since the Brexit referendum - 10 years ago tomorrow.

Labour Party challenger Andy Burnham is widely expected to succeed Starmer as party leader and prime minister. Sterling remains 10% lower against the dollar and 15% weaker against the euro compared with levels seen before the Brexit vote.

Today’s events to watch

• Canada May CPI (8:30 a.m. EDT)

• EU June ‌flash consumer confidence (10 a.m. EDT)

• Fed’s Christopher Waller speaks (9 a.m. EDT)

• ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks (11 a.m. EDT)

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

(By Mike Dolan; Additional ​writing by Al Reed)