POJ3071Football——概率动态规划+异或^的妙用

该博客讨论了一种使用概率动态规划方法来预测单淘汰足球锦标赛胜者的问题。给定每支球队击败另一支球队的概率矩阵,博客解释了如何通过动态规划计算最有可能赢得比赛的队伍,并保证在顶级球队之间的获胜概率差异至少为0.01。

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Football
Time Limit: 1000MS Memory Limit: 65536K
Total Submissions: 2884 Accepted: 1467

Description

Consider a single-elimination football tournament involving 2n teams, denoted 1, 2, …, 2n. In each round of the tournament, all teams still in the tournament are placed in a list in order of increasing index. Then, the first team in the list plays the second team, the third team plays the fourth team, etc. The winners of these matches advance to the next round, and the losers are eliminated. After n rounds, only one team remains undefeated; this team is declared the winner.

Given a matrix P = [pij] such that pij is the probability that team i will beat team j in a match determine which team is most likely to win the tournament.

Input

The input test file will contain multiple test cases. Each test case will begin with a single line containing n (1 ≤ n ≤ 7). The next 2n lines each contain 2n values; here, the jth value on the ith line represents pij. The matrix P will satisfy the constraints that pij = 1.0 − pji for all i ≠ j, and pii = 0.0 for all i. The end-of-file is denoted by a single line containing the number −1. Note that each of the matrix entries in this problem is given as a floating-point value. To avoid precision problems, make sure that you use either the double data type instead of float.

Output

The output file should contain a single line for each test case indicating the number of the team most likely to win. To prevent floating-point precision issues, it is guaranteed that the difference in win probability for the top two teams will be at least 0.01.

Sample Input

2
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
0.9 0.0 0.4 0.5
0.8 0.6 0.0 0.6
0.7 0.5 0.4 0.0
-1

Sample Output

2

Hint

In the test case above, teams 1 and 2 and teams 3 and 4 play against each other in the first round; the winners of each match then play to determine the winner of the tournament. The probability that team 2 wins the tournament in this case is:

P(2 wins) P(2 beats 1)P(3 beats 4)P(2 beats 3) + P(2 beats 1)P(4 beats 3)P(2 beats 4)
p21p34p23 + p21p43p24
= 0.9 · 0.6 · 0.4 + 0.9 · 0.4 · 0.5 = 0.396.

The next most likely team to win is team 3, with a 0.372 probability of winning the tournament.

Source



分析:很经典的一道动规,有2^n支队伍参加比赛,编号为1~2^n。
淘汰赛,每支队伍都会和其他队伍比赛,每轮比赛的胜者与其他胜者比赛,输掉一场比赛就会被淘汰,这些都是概率问题。求最有可能成为冠军的队伍编号。
dp[i][j]代表第i轮比赛中队伍j获胜的概率。在一轮比赛中某支队伍获胜的概率等于该队伍上一轮比赛中获胜的概率 乘以 战胜本轮所有对手的概率。
最后遍历dp[n][i] 中最大的 ,输出i+1。(一共n轮)
这里遍历所有对手时有一些复杂。简单的写法是利用异或^。(确实厉害啊!!!)

状态转移核心:
                                                          *
                                     ↗     ↖
                                    *             *
                                ↗ ↖       ↗↖
                                           *      *
                           ↗↖ ↗↖ ↗↖↗↖
                          1    2    4   6  7    8
1号队在第1轮可能遇上的对手是2,
在第二轮可能遇上的对手是3,4,
在第三轮可能遇上的对手是5 6 7 8
其实第i轮第j支队伍可能遇上的队伍,就是同属于j所在子树在第i层的根节点的另一棵子树上的所有节点.
具体求范围的时候,只要知道一个节点落在左子树还是右子树就够了.然后所有可以和该节点在下一轮竞争的队伍就在另一棵子树上面.
这些可能遇到的对手都需要计算dp。


测试:



//Football——概率DP+异或^妙用
//dp[i][j]第i轮比赛中队伍j获胜的概率
#include<iostream>
#include<cmath>
using namespace std;

double p[129][129];
double dp[8][129];
int n;

int main()
{
	while(scanf("%d",&n) && n != -1)
	{
		for(int i=0;i<pow(2.0, n);i++) // 1<<n
		{
			for(int j=0;j<pow(2.0, n);j++)
				scanf("%lf",&p[i][j]);
		}
		for(int i=0;i<1<<n;i++) dp[0][i] = 1;
		for(int i=0;i<n;i++)
		{
			for(int j=0;j<1<<n;j++)
			{
				double sum = 0.0;
				for(int k=1<<i;k<(1<<(i+1));k++)
				{
					//sum += dp[i][k] * p[j][k]; // wrong
					sum += dp[i][k^j] * p[j][k^j]; // k^j为对手
				}
				dp[i+1][j] = dp[i][j] * sum;
			}
		}

		int ans = 0;
		for(int i=0;i<1<<n;i++)
			if(dp[n][i] > dp[n][ans])
				ans = i;
		printf("%d\n",ans+1);
	}

	return 0;
}






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