Ashish Gupta

HDB Financial Services (HDBFS), the NBFC arm of HDFC Bank, has seen dramatic swings in its unlisted (pre IPO) share price that have hurt early investors: 📉 What happened with pre IPO investors? 1. Surging unlisted prices Ahead of the IPO, HDBFS shares traded in the grey/unlisted market at ₹1,200–₹1,525, roughly double their value from a year ago (~₹650–₹700)  2. IPO pricing is much lower The official IPO price band is set at ₹700–₹740, significantly below these unlisted market highs  3. Pre IPO buyers locked in losses Investors who paid ~₹1,200–₹1,500 in the private market are facing 40–60% unrealised losses, unless the listed share price rebounds above their purchase price. Why such a big discrepancy? • Speculative premium in the unlisted market: Investors often overpay based on hype and peer comparisons rather than fundamentals, leading to inflated valuations  • IPO valuation grounded in fundamentals: Regulators and investment bankers set the IPO price based on due diligence, comparable peer valuations, and financial performance—resulting in a more conservative band (~₹700–₹740). Broader investor insight Community opinions echo caution. One Reddit user noted: “Probably because the overall market is down by 10–12%. And this is the risk with unlisted shares. Unless you can evaluate the company urself, better to stay away from them.”  This underscores that pre IPO investments carry higher risk and less transparency than listed market purchases. ✅ Bottom line • If you bought between ₹1,200–₹1,525 pre IPO, you’re currently looking at substantial unrealised losses since the IPO price is much lower. • For new investors, buying via the IPO at ₹700–₹740 might be a safer bet—though the grey market can still impact short-term listing performance (a ~11% premium is expected) Would you like to Discuss Investment options Connect with me in 7810079946🤝 #sip #mutualfund #sathishspeaks #ipo #hdbservices #financialfreedom

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Thrilled to announce the launch of Ironclad Ventures Fund, our second investment product under Ironclad Asset Management — a ₹200 Cr SEBI-approved fund dedicated to Employee Secondaries. Why does this matter? In India, most venture-backed startups allocate 5–15% of their cap tables to ESOPs, yet liquidity for employees is rare and ad-hoc. For too long, ESOPs have been treated as “paper money,” leading to weaker belief in equity ownership and misaligned incentives. Ironclad Ventures is built to change that. We partner with leading VC-backed startups to offer structured, repeatable liquidity programs, so employees can partially monetize their equity while continuing to hold long-term upside. This liquidity massively increases employees' belief in ESOPs. For companies, this reduces the pressure to constantly increase cash salaries, strengthens retention, and sends a credible signal of wealth creation via ESOPs to future hires. We will take a diversified approach — backing 30–40 high-quality startups across fintech, consumer, SaaS, AI, and digital infrastructure with small ESOP secondary cheques of ₹1–4 Cr for Seed to Series B startups. Our aim is simple: 1. Improve the belief that employees have in ESOPs and unlock some wealth for the people building India’s breakout companies 2. Preserve founder alignment and cap-table integrity 3. Enable Indian HNIs & family offices to access the innovation economy This launch follows the success of our first product, the Ironclad Flexicap PMS, which has grown capital at ~20% since inception in Jan 2025, in a difficult year for capital markets. With Ironclad Ventures, we extend our disciplined investment philosophy into private markets. #Ironclad AMC #VentureCapital #ESOPs #Secondaries #WealthCreation #InnovationEconomy https://lnkd.in/gqWkh_-m

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No surprise why HDB Financial's share price dropped over 65% from unlisted highs to the IPO price band. The hype in the unlisted space doesn’t always match fundamentals. Let’s compare HDB vs Bajaj Finance (FY25): • AUM Growth (5Y CAGR): 12.3% vs 27.2% • GNPA: 2.26% vs 0.85% • ROA: 2.16% vs 3.9% • ROE: 13.6% vs 19.2% • Price/Book (Unlisted at ₹1250): 6.3× vs 5.8× for Bajaj! • P/B (IPO price @ ₹740): 3.74× Despite lower growth, weaker asset quality, and lower return ratios, HDB traded at a premium valuation in the unlisted market—driven purely by retail euphoria. Price discovery works best when driven by fundamentals—not sentiment. What does it tell you? Would love to hear your thoughts. Follow me for data-backed insights on markets, businesses, and investing at Vaibhav Agarwal, CFA Disclaimer: No recommendations. Only for education purposes #HDBFinancial #BajajFinance #IPO #Valuation #StockMarket #Investing #NBFC #AcceltInsights #WealthWithWisdom

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Markets underestimating ‘The Ripple Effect’ —————————————————————— All in all, this budget is one of the best budgets presented. It will set a wave of positive ripples in the economy and will benefit many businesses, said Nimesh Chandan. https://lnkd.in/d7vgciAz #investing #investmentdecisions #investmentstrategy #investmentpsychology #behaviouralfinance #behaviouraleconomics #behavioralfinance #behavioraleconomics #equities #mutualfunds #stockmarkets #equityinvesting #mutualfundsahihai

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Unlisted Market Bubble Has Popped Tata Capital IPO is coming at a -71% loss from its peak unlisted price. HDB, NSDL, Nazara — all IPOs came with a loss of approx -50%. Investors, be careful. The unlisted space is no longer the exotic goldmine it once seemed. Even top PE & VC funds are struggling to deliver returns. Why? 1) Because interest rates in the US & developed markets have jumped from 0% to 4.5%. 2) Money isn’t free anymore. Its expensive. And expensive money demands profitable ideas — not hype. Don’t chase stories. Chase sustainability. Don’t follow crowds. Follow cash flows. The game has changed. Invest wisely. #UnlistedShares #IPOBubble #TataCapital #Nazara #NSDL #HDBFinancial #VCFunding #InterestRates #SmartMoney #FinancialLiteracy #InvestingWisely

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While Indian equity markets are expensive on a simplistic price/earnings basis, they are expensive for a reason. The earnings growth has been the best in the last five years, and it is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. DoorDarshi India Fund DoorDarshi Advisors

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There are 3 different funds & these are their 5 year CAGR. Fund 1: 25.5% Fund 2: 17.2% Fund 3: 23.01% If you had invested ₹1,00,000 in each of them 5 years back, their values today would be Fund 1: ₹3,11,825 Fund 2: ₹2,21,125 Fund 3: ₹2,81,625 So clearly Fund 1 is the winner here. But in reality for a person who is working , the investment doesn’t stop with one single tranche. Most of them would be doing regular SIP. Let’s say the person did a ₹10,000 SIP for a period of 5 years (60 months). The value of ₹6,00,000 today would be. Fund 1: ₹9,81,519 (19.8%) Fund 2: ₹11,73,819 (27.2%) Fund 3: ₹11,79,769 (27.4%) The results are surprising right? How did a fund that gave the highest returns in 5 years underperform when the investment mode changed from lumpsum to SIP? The answer lies in consistency. Fund 3 has consistently generated good returns across all timeframes like 3 months, 1 year & 3 years, leading to better value for it's customers. While on the other hand, the fund 1 had best returns in the initial couple of years and was followed by poor performance post that. This lead to SIP not doing well. This is a reason why we don’t look at CAGR numbers & instead choose annual performances. I would recommend you to see how investments at various entry points have performed. Have a look at SIP performance over short and medium term to pick a more consistent performer than the best return fund. How do you shortlist your mutual fund? If you liked the post consider sharing it with your network.

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