Megan Conceição

#tesco continuing to dominate market sales growth, and #lidl yet again growing at double the rate of #aldi, are the headlines from Worldpanel by Numerator (formerly Kantar) UK market data for 12 weeks ending 7th September 2025 released this morning. 12-week sales grew by 4.7%, slightly up from 4.5% in the last period. In the last 4 weeks grocery inflation was 4.9%, a touch down from 5.0% the previous 4 weeks. The Tesco juggernaut continues to roll over the performance of most of the other retailers. Their sales are up £716m YoY, accounting for 45% of total market growth. This 7.7% increase is their highest rate of increase since December 2023. Their formula does not change – a laser focus on #promotions (through Clubcard prices), #EDLP (using Aldi Price Match), and strong #availability in-store has not waivered – putting them in a great position ahead of the “golden quarter” of supermarket retailing. #sainsburys have been growing ahead of the market every period since July 2023. Their 5.4% growth is strong, but they will be aware that Tesco have moved further ahead of them in terms of market share - by 0.7% pts compared to this time last year. #asda continue to struggle with sales down 2.7% vs. 2024 and market share down 2.0% compared to just two years’ ago. They have recently completed the roll-out of their new IT system “Project Future” following a 4-year deployment period that has significantly affected availability – maybe damaging customer confidence to the point of no return. Only time will tell. Confidence (and energy) seems to be higher at #morrisons. Whilst sales and share remain a challenge they have this week announced price cuts of more than 650 products and are launching over 500 new products with a huge focus on fresh food. Looking forward to seeing these in their stores that are being re-merchandised to show off the new ranges. Lidl, at +11.0%, are the fastest growing physical retailer yet again. Their growth rate has been over double that of Aldi’s for the last 2 periods. This week Aldi’s 2024 full year performance was announced – sales up by just 1.1% at £18.1bn with operating profit down 21% to £435m. This was against a strong 2023, and 2025 sales are improved. However, their 4.7% sales growth indicates flat volume growth, as Aldi have launched around 40 new stores over the last year, an increase of c.4%. They have plans to launch 1500 stores in the UK - but at around 40 per year it will be 2035 before this target is reached. #ownlabel sales now account for 51.2% of the market, up from 50.9% this time last year. They are growing at a rate of 5.9% whilst #brands are up 5.3%. #premium own label has been in double-digit growth for the past 6 months. Morrisons this week have announced a new “ultra-premium tier” called “The Best Signature Collection”. Certainly the focus of many retailers is to use premium private label to #differentiate from their #competitors and the brands – painting a rosy future for own label growth.

882

53 Comments

Britvic plc increased its marketing budget by 30.9% in 2024. GB marketing director Munnawar Chishty shares how she made the case – and continues to make the case – for investment at the drinks business https://lnkd.in/eWWgxc4v

107

‼️ BREAKING: Finsbury Food Group acquires majority stake in Lola's Cupcakes 🧁🧁 Finsbury has taken a 70% stake in premium cupcake and celebration cake brand Lola’s, valuing the business at over £25m and marking its entry into the direct-to-consumer market. The business will continue to be led by MD #AsherBudwig, leveraging Finsbury’s manufacturing scale and commercial reach to drive growth. CEO #JohnDuffy said the deal is “another step forward” in Finsbury’s buy-and-build strategy, while Budwig sees “exciting new heights” ahead through the partnership. ⚡ Find out more on #MCA 👉 https://lnkd.in/edQMSZyr #FinsburyFoodGroup #Lolas #bakery #cakes #cupcakes #hospitality #acquisition

84

1 Comment

Tesco's Strong Q1 Results: A Lesson in Multi-Strategy Retail 🛒 While the UK grocery market buzzes with talk of "price wars," Tesco's latest results tell a different story about what's really driving success. The Tesco Numbers: 📈Revenue up 4.6% to £16.4bn with UK food sales jumping 5.9% 🎯Market share climbed to 28% for 12 weeks ended 18 May 💹Share price up 31% over 12 months, hitting decade-high levels ✨Premium success: Finest own-label grew 18%, online up 11.5% What Tesco Got Right: they're executing a comprehensive strategy under CEO Ken Murphy's leadership: ✅Value positioning: Aldi Price Match + Clubcard deals ✅Premium growth: Strong performance in higher-margin categories ✅Digital acceleration: Online sales momentum continuing ✅Operational excellence: Maintaining quality while competing on price My Take: 💡 This isn't really about who wins the "price war" – it's about finding the optimal strategic positioning. Tesco's success shows you can compete on value while simultaneously growing premium segments and investing in digital. The Reality: 💪 Multi-strategy execution beats single-focus approaches every time. Sustainable competitive advantage comes from clear execution across multiple fronts. What's your take? What elements of successful strategy matter most in today's market? 🤔 #UKRetail #Supermarkets #RetailStrategy #Tesco #MarketAnalysis

51

2 Comments

WHAT'S HAPPENED IN THE FOOD AND DRINK INDUSTRY THIS WEEK? Don't Miss These Top 10 Big Moves: 🏪 Lidl GB Expands Again – The discounter is set to open nine new stores within the next month, continuing its rapid UK expansion. 🎬 Tesco Launches New Brand Campaign – After seven years, Tesco is replacing ‘Food Love Stories’ with its new ‘It’s Everything’ campaign, aiming to refresh its food quality message. ☕ PG Tips Invests £2m – After a rocky relaunch in 2023, the tea brand is making a £2m breakfast push to win back shoppers. 🛒 Self-Checkout Theft on the Rise – A recent survey shows 37% of shoppers admit to stealing at self-checkouts. Retailers may need to rethink the balance between convenience and security. 🔑 Tesco’s New Personalised Clubcard Trial – Testing a hyper-personalised ‘Your Clubcard Prices’ initiative, bringing tailored discounts to individual shoppers. 🩸 Benefit Juice brand Tackles Menopause – Launching a new menopause support blend in Tesco, designed to offer nutritional benefits for women going through hormonal changes. ⚠️ Aspartame Controversy Heats Up – Health app Yuka has launched a petition to ban aspartame, citing cancer concerns and aiming to push governments across Europe and the UK into action. 🥣 Horlicks Expands into Breakfast – The iconic malted drink brand enters the cereal aisle with Malted Porridge, tapping into demand for nostalgic comfort foods. 💧 Liquid Death Exits UK – The canned water brand is pulling out of the UK after failing to gain traction, despite an initial buzz when it launched in 2023. Follow me for next week's! #FoodIndustry #RetailNews #FMCG #FoodTrends #BrandStrategy

82

6 Comments

Something is happening quietly in food retail Around 1.5 to 2 million people in the UK are now using GLP-1s, mostly through private routes, with NHS use rising but still limited. That is already large enough to shape categories, baskets and behaviours. Appetite, portion size and the meaning of food are shifting, and the data is starting to show it. In the UK, sweet snacks are down 6.1% and salty snacks 1.2%. In the US, households with a GLP-1 user cut grocery spend by 5 to 6% within six months, mainly in discretionary food. My view on which products might hold short-term opportunity: 1. Meal Replacements and Protein Shakes: Convenient, portioned and protein-heavy. 2. Electrolytes and Functional Hydration: Used to manage fatigue and maintain balance. Growing strongly across drinks and powder formats, typically at high single-digit rates, and now gaining more retail visibility. 3. Tailored Supplements: Clear growth across omega-3, magnesium and blends, supported by an expanding UK supplements market. 4. Fibre Supplements: With less whole food in the diet, people are adding fibre back through powders, gummies and fortified drinks. Global market growth is estimated at 6 to 8% annually. 5. Complete Bars and Functional Snacks: Compact, fortified and portion-controlled. Filling the space between meals and seeing steady growth across the UK protein and functional snack segments. These products work because they compensate for what is missing, not because they add something new. That is where the opportunity begins. As appetite becomes managed rather than assumed, value will move toward food that delivers genuine nutrition, balance and satisfaction. The long-term winners, irrespective of the scale of disruption, will rebuild food’s role in wellbeing and trust, not just fill gaps in the diet. For retailers and suppliers, some questions to considered; > How exposed are your core categories if consumption continues to contract? > Where can you rebuild value per portion, not just per pack? > Are sourcing and NPD cycles ready if the shift accelerates? > How will advertising adapt when appetite and impulse are no longer reliable drivers of demand? > Do category, innovation and comms share a single plan for what comes next? We are starting a piece of work to understand how prepared UK food businesses are for this disruption, and which attributes reduce risk as consumption patterns evolve. If this is a conversation you need to have inside your business, get in touch with us

65

20 Comments