The Seer-Sucker Theory

Here is a great illustration of the seer-sucker theory in operation courtesy of Derren Brown:

Derren Brown - The System (Full)

Groupthink and Conformity

This piece refers to the experiment on conformity covered in the last part of chapter 2 in The Wisdom of Crowds. This is different to the "social proof" of the street corner experiment. Here it was found that people will conform to the accepted decision because they don't want to stand out and simply want to go along with the crowd. This isn't a bad way to spend five minutes (even if the clip looks about 30 years old!)

Another take on it is available here.

The Wisdom of One

Can one man have a system that predicts the winner of a horse race each and every time? Watch Derren Brown reveal the details of The System. It is sufficient to watch parts one and five to understand it. This ties in with the 'ask the expert' trend discussed in chapter 2 of The Wisdom of Crowds.

The System.

To see how this relates to decision making and the "search for excellence" check out a post from Greg Mankiw here. Surowiecki references a book by Nassim Taleb at the end of part III in chapter two. This paragraph explains in a nutshell the effect Derren Brown's system had on Khadisha in the clips above.

We seek out experts, because we get, as the writer Nassim Taleb asserts, "fooled by randomness". If there are enough people out there making predictions, a few of them are going to compile an impressive record over time. That does not mean that the record was the product of skill, nor does it mean that the record will continue into the future. Again, trying to find smart people will not lead you astray. Trying to find the smartest person will.