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Approaches to Cost-Benefit Analysis of New Nuclear Power Projects - IAEA
APPROACHES TO
COST–BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF
NEW NUCLEAR POWER PROJECTS
IAEA NUCLEAR ENERGY SERIES No. NG-T-4.8
APPROACHES TO
COST–BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF
NEW NUCLEAR POWER PROJECTS
INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY
VIENNA, 2024
COPYRIGHT NOTICE
All IAEA scientific and technical publications are protected by the terms of the Universal Copyright Convention as adopted in 1952 (Geneva) and as revised in 1971 (Paris). The copyright has since been extended by the World Intellectual Property Organization (Geneva) to include electronic and virtual intellectual property. Permission may be required to use whole or parts of texts contained in IAEA publications in printed or electronic form. Please see
www.iaea.org/publications/rights-and-permissions for more details. Enquiries may be addressed to:
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1400 Vienna, Austria
tel.: +43 1 2600 22529 or 22530
email: [email protected]
www.iaea.org/publications
© IAEA, 2024
Printed by the IAEA in Austria
April 2024
STI/PUB/2079
10.61092/iaea.5t26-8tpd
IAEA Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Names: International Atomic Energy Agency.
Title: Approaches to cost-benefit analysis of new nuclear power projects / International Atomic Energy Agency.
Description: Vienna : International Atomic Energy Agency, 2024. | Series: IAEA nuclear energy series, ISSN 1995-7807 ; no. NG-T-4.8 | Includes bibliographical references.
Identifiers: IAEAL 24-01669 | ISBN 978-92-0-105324-4 (paperback : alk. paper) | ISBN 978-92-0-105224-7 (pdf) | ISBN 978-92-0-105424-1 (epub)
Subjects: LCSH: Nuclear power plants — Cost effectiveness. | Nuclear power plants — Economic aspects. | Nuclear power plants — Management.
Classification: UDC 621.311.25 | STI/PUB/2079
FOREWORD
The IAEA’s statutory role is to seek to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world
. Among other functions, the IAEA is authorized to foster the exchange of scientific and technical information on peaceful uses of atomic energy
. One way this is achieved is through a range of technical publications including the IAEA Nuclear Energy Series.
The IAEA Nuclear Energy Series comprises publications designed to further the use of nuclear technologies in support of sustainable development, to advance nuclear science and technology, catalyse innovation and build capacity to support the existing and expanded use of nuclear power and nuclear science applications. The publications include information covering all policy, technological and management aspects of the definition and implementation of activities involving the peaceful use of nuclear technology. While the guidance provided in IAEA Nuclear Energy Series publications does not constitute Member States’ consensus, it has undergone internal peer review and been made available to Member States for comment prior to publication.
The IAEA safety standards establish fundamental principles, requirements and recommendations to ensure nuclear safety and serve as a global reference for protecting people and the environment from harmful effects of ionizing radiation.
When IAEA Nuclear Energy Series publications address safety, it is ensured that the IAEA safety standards are referred to as the current boundary conditions for the application of nuclear technology.
The IAEA offers a wide range of services to support the introduction or expansion of nuclear power. To assist Member States, in 2015 the IAEA published IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NG-G-3.1 (Rev. 1), Milestones in the Development of a National Infrastructure for Nuclear Power, which provides an overview of the 19 issues to be addressed in the three phases of infrastructure development. One of the key activities carried out during phase 2 is a feasibility study for the first nuclear power plant. The feasibility study provides stakeholders with the information needed to justify and implement the nuclear new build project. The scope of a typical feasibility study is described in IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NG-T-3.3, Preparation of a Feasibility Study for New Nuclear Power Projects. The publication suggests conducting multiple studies to justify the implementation of a nuclear new build project, including an economic cost–benefit analysis.
This publication suggests the use of a canvas and framework when conducting a cost–benefit analysis for a nuclear new build project as part of a feasibility study. Cost–benefit analysis is a microeconomic evaluation approach enabling the assessment of a project’s long term impact on society by quantifying the relevant costs and benefits in monetary terms. The methodology allows for the acknowledgement of the social, environmental and economic costs and benefits associated with investments in power generation systems. The publication also includes an example illustrating the application of the cost–benefit analysis methodology to a fictitious nuclear new build project.
The IAEA officers responsible for this publication were S. Dardour and D. Subbotnitskiy of the Division of Planning, Information and Knowledge Management.
EDITORIAL NOTE
This publication has been edited by the editorial staff of the IAEA to the extent considered necessary for the reader’s assistance.
It does not address questions of responsibility, legal or otherwise, for acts or omissions on the part of any person.
Although great care has been taken to maintain the accuracy of information contained in this publication, neither the IAEA nor its Member States assume any responsibility for consequences which may arise from its use.
Guidance provided here, describing good practices, represents expert opinion but does not constitute recommendations made on the basis of a consensus of Member States.
The use of particular designations of countries or territories does not imply any judgement by the publisher, the IAEA, as to the legal status of such countries or territories, of their authorities and institutions or of the delimitation of their boundaries.
The mention of names of specific companies or products (whether or not indicated as registered) does not imply any intention to infringe proprietary rights, nor should it be construed as an endorsement or recommendation on the part of the IAEA.
The IAEA has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third party Internet web sites referred to in this book and does not guarantee that any content on such web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
The authoritative version of this publication is the hard copy issued at the same time and available as pdf on www.iaea.org/publications. To create this version for e-readers, certain changes have been made, including a the movement of some figures and tables.
CONTENTS
1. Introduction
1.1. Background
1.2. Objective
1.3. Scope
1.4. Structure
1.5. Users
2. An Introduction to cost–benefit analysis
2.1. General definition of cost–benefit analysis
2.2. Key principles of cost
2.3. Limitations and alternative methods
2.4. Seven step process
3. Application of cost–benefit analysis in the case of nuclear projects
3.1. Selected remarks on specificities of nuclear new build projects
3.2. Steps 1–4: Preparatory steps
3.3. Step 5: Financial analysis
3.4. Step 6: Economic analysis
3.5. Step 7: Sensitivity and risk analysis
4. Illustrative case study
4.1. The fictitious country: Ladonia
4.2. The nuclear power project
4.3. Cost–benefit analysis
4.4. Sensitivity and risk analysis
4.5. Concluding remarks
5. Conclusion
Appendix I: DISCOUNT RATES
Appendix II: WILLINGNESS TO PAY APPROACH FOR EVALUATING DIRECT AND EXTERNAL EFFECTS
Appendix III: EXTERNAL COSTS OF ELECTRICITY
Appendix IV: FINANCIAL PROFITABILITY
Appendix V: SOCIOECONOMIC DESIRABILITY
Appendix VI: IAEA NUCLEAR POWER COST–BENEFIT ANALYSIS TOOLKIT
REFERENCES
GLOSSARY
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
CONTRIBUTORS TO DRAFTING AND REVIEW
STRUCTURE OF THE IAEA NUCLEAR ENERGY SERIES
1. Introduction
1.1. Background
Nuclear power generation matches three of the main objectives of modern energy policy: reduction of carbon emissions, increase in security of supply and predictable generation costs [1, 2]. This is why some countries intend to introduce nuclear power or expand existing nuclear programmes in the coming decades [3]. However, a commitment to nuclear energy also entails a number of inherent challenges, including a long, complex and costly regulatory process and exposure to political risks [3, 4], which cannot be neglected.
Similar to other large infrastructure projects, new build nuclear power plants (NPPs) are large, complex and capital intensive investments with extended economic lives, and are often preceded by long design, development and construction periods. These lengthy phases typically lead to large funding requirements and, ultimately, to extended financing costs.
In the context of limited financial resources, governments promoting the development of nuclear new build projects will seek efficient allocation of their resources and to ensure that the benefits of nuclear power exceed its costs, including the external costs. By taking the perspective of society as a whole, a cost–benefit analysis (CBA) measures and compares the socioeconomic costs of an investment with its socioeconomic benefits, thereby determining whether it is an efficient use of resources or not.
1.2. Objective
The objective of this publication is to provide IAEA Member States with a common framework for ex ante CBA of nuclear new builds.
Although there is a wealth of literature on CBA, no guidelines have been prepared specifically for nuclear new