"Venture doesn't run on leverage. It's asymmetric. You could only lose 1x, but you could potentially make 1000x. There's two errors in venture: there's the error of commission - where you invest in the thing that fails - and the error of omission - where you don't invest in the thing that succeeds." Marc Andreessen on venture math and how the error of omission is the far more impactful of the two. Some struggle to understand this.
Hahaha, love Andreessen, but that’s the kind of BS venture-patois that has no damn practical implication for us folk in the daily trenches. But I still enjoyed.
And his fund performs average or bad because there is the error of AUMission. If you have a massive fund and write massive tickets at massive valuations you don't get your 1000x even if you get the right winner
Michael Jackson couldn't you apply the same principle to playing the lottery? Without analysis and structure, this is just storytelling (but then in VC we all love telling a good story)
The mathematics of venture are confined to bubbles and power law sectors. I do not mean that pejoratively. SaaS was it. Ai is it. Biotech could be it. Space is trying to be it. Robotics might be it. Most businesses definitely are not it. The mentality of investment in skewed bets is brutal. You invest then double down on the winners. You cut loose the losers. It’s Darwinian. As a portfolio manager investing in stocks there is no empathy required. As a private investor backing management teams there is minimal room for emotion. If everyone has the “fail fast” mindset it’s ok. But they rarely do. And every loss hurts. Winners at their best are “adapt and learn” machines. At their worst they are sociopaths.
Pascal's wager, for VCs...
I don’t understand. 🤔 @ Grok can you explain this to me like I’m a 5 year old?
Spoken like a true gambler 😅
Imagine knowing that, and also knowing your firm doesn't even respond to 99% of the business plans it is sent and actually invests only in one in every 1000 or so. Being a VC is hard (regardless of your fund size) when you are not a top name-brand firm like A16Z because the differentiator is not picking winners, but rather picking a basket of [winners+losers] and increasing their odds based on your network. In other words, it's like a poker game and A16Z gets an extra card dealt to them. That doesn't mean they always win and the less-known firms always lose, but it skews the odds--and thus aggregate outcomes--in their favor.
Amazing to see how influential this clip has been in causing or giving VCs permission to chase valuations up in every peak of a cycle.
Now the real question - is there enough asymmetric upside available for a $20B fund to justify venture's illiquidity risk for investors?