Machine Learning and Employment Trends

Generative AI is changing how careers begin. Analyzing 285,000 US firms and 62 million workers, Seyed Mahdi Hosseini Maasoum and Guy Lichtinger found that companies adopting AI reduced junior hiring by 22% starting in early 2023, while senior employment continued growing. They find → Wholesale/retail saw 40% cuts in junior roles → Mid-tier university graduates hit hardest → Elite and lower-tier graduates somewhat protected → Pattern spans most industries, not just tech These findings align with Erik Brynjolfsson's concurrent research using ADP payroll data. Erik and colleagues found that workers aged 22-25 in AI-exposed occupations experienced a 6% employment decline since late 2022, while older workers in the same jobs grew 6-9%. Same timeline, same pattern, different methodology.

A new paper from Stanford University shows that early-career workers are currently the most exposed to AI. “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence” evaluates changes in the labor market for occupations exposed to generative AI using high-frequency administrative data from ADP, the largest payroll software provider in the United States. The researchers studied a sample consisting of monthly, individual-level payroll records through July 2025, encompassing millions of workers across tens of thousands of firms. They linked the payroll data to “established measures of occupational AI exposure and other variables” to quantify the realized employment changes since the widespread adoption of generative AI. From the introduction: “We find that since the widespread adoption of generative AI, early-career workers (ages 22-25) in the most AI-exposed occupations have experienced a 13 percent relative decline in employment even after controlling for firm-level shocks. . .  These six facts provide early, large-scale evidence consistent with the hypothesis that the AI revolution is beginning to have a significant and disproportionate impact on entry-level workers in the American labor market.” Key Findings: 1) Substantial declines in employment for early-career workers (ages 22-25) in occupations most exposed to AI, such as software developers and customer service representatives. 2) Overall employment continues to grow robustly, but employment growth for young workers in particular has been stagnant since late 2022. 3) Not all uses of AI are associated with declines in employment. In particular, entry-level employment has declined in applications of AI that automate work, but not those that most augment it. My Thoughts: These findings make sense, but this is still just the leading edge of the impact on jobs. As the AI models get smarter, more generally capable, more reliable, and more agentic (able to perform tasks at or above levels of the average human worker) the impact will continue to move up the corporate ladder. I still believe middle management could be at high risk in the next 1-2 years across many industries. We explore this new report on ep 165 of The Artificial Intelligence Show (episode link in the comments). 00:00:00 — Intro 00:07:17 — AI Labor Market Signals 00:16:37 — AI Industry’s Increasing Political Influence 00:28:33 — Google’s Stunning “Nano Banana” Image Editor 00:34:26 — OpenAI Parental Controls and Support Features 00:38:23 — Anthropic Settles Authors’ Copyright Lawsuit 00:42:44 — Meta’s AI Strategy in Flux 00:46:06 — GenAI App Landscape Report 00:51:10 — OpenAI–Anthropic Joint Safety Evaluation 00:54:37 — Jensen Huang Suggests AI Will Create a Four-Day Workweek 01:00:11 — Microsoft’s AI Excel Warning 01:03:17 — Claude in Classrooms 01:07:07 — AI Product and Funding Updates

𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥: History shows AI's impact on jobs will follow a familiar pattern of disruption and growth, but on a compressed 10-15 year timeline. Understanding past technological transitions helps us prepare for both the challenges and opportunities ahead. This is part 3 on the #EconomicsofAI. In one of prior posts (https://bit.ly/40tVLRI), I wrote about the history of economic value generation in tech transformations. But what does AI do for jobs? Read on: Looking at 250 years of technological disruption reveals a consistent pattern that will likely repeat with AI, just faster. My analysis of employment data across four major technological waves shows something fascinating: while specific jobs decline initially, total employment ultimately grows significantly – often 2-3x higher than pre-disruption levels. Here's what history tells us about AI's likely impact on jobs: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻 𝗔𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗘𝗮𝗰𝗵 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲: • 𝗙𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 (𝟭𝟳𝟲𝟬-𝟭𝟴𝟰𝟬): 40% initial job decline, 80 years to full transformation • 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 (𝟭𝟴𝟳𝟬-𝟭𝟵𝟭𝟰): 30% decline, 44 years to transform • 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 (𝟭𝟵𝟱𝟬-𝟭𝟵𝟴𝟬): 25% decline, 30 years • Digital Revolution (1980-2000): 15% decline, 20 years • 𝗔𝗜 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 (𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰-𝟮𝟬𝟯𝟱): Projected 20% initial disruption, 10-15 years to transform 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗜 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗽𝗵𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀: • 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰-𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲: 𝗜𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗿𝘂𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 Expect focused impact on knowledge workers, particularly in areas like content creation, analysis, & routine cognitive tasks. Unlike previous waves that started with manual labor, AI begins with cognitive tasks. • 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲-𝟮𝟬𝟯𝟬: 𝗥𝗮𝗽𝗶𝗱 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 New job categories emerge rapidly as AI enables new business models. Just as the internet created roles like SEO specialists & social media managers, AI will spawn entirely new professional categories. • 𝟮𝟬𝟯𝟬-𝟮𝟬𝟯𝟱: 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 Employment should exceed pre-AI levels as the economy reorganizes around AI capabilities, similar to how manufacturing employment grew 4x during the Second Industrial Revolution. 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝗳𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀 𝘄𝗮𝘃𝗲𝘀: • Digital infrastructure already exists • Global talent pool can adapt more quickly • Market pressures demand faster adoption This will only happen if we treat AI as Augmented Intelligence! 𝗔𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀: The data shows that organizations that invest in workforce transformation during disruption emerge strongest. Focus on: • Identifying which roles will transform vs. disappear • Building internal training using resources from Anthropic Amazon Web Services (AWS) etc. • Creating new job categories that combine human+AI capabilities • Planning for the growth phase

My latest column in The New York Times is about a worrying new trend I'm seeing: AI being used to replace college graduates in entry-level knowledge work. "Employers are saying, ‘These tools are so good that I no longer need marketing analysts, finance analysts and research assistants.’” says Molly Kinder of Brookings. One executive told me his company no longer hires anything below an L5 software engineer. Another told me his start-up has 1 data scientist doing the work of 75 people. And evidence for rising unemployment for college grads is showing up in recent economic data. I talked to researchers, CEOs and young job-seekers about what's happening, and how AI is knocking out the bottom rungs of the career ladder. https://lnkd.in/gXyZGdyH

Something unusual is happening in high-skill services. The chart below tracks employment in Finance, Insurance, Information, and Professional & Technical Services. Historically, these sectors in aggregate never saw job growth stall for over two years outside of a recession. Yet that’s exactly what’s happened since late 2022. And it’s not due to weak demand—economic growth has been strong, tech adoption has surged, and businesses have continued investing in digital transformation and AI. So why has employment flatlined? Part of the answer may be AI itself. These industries are at the frontier of generative AI adoption—filled with roles that involve writing, analysis, planning, and coding. The very tasks that today’s AI models are best at automating or augmenting. This could be the early signs of a structural shift—from steady headcount growth to a new era of productivity without proportional hiring. That could also be one of the explanations for why new college grads are struggling to find a job. The future of white-collar work may be arriving faster than we thought. What do you think? #labormarkets #futureofwork #ai #recruitment

Jobs will not be the same in the coming decade, and that is the hardest truth we must prepare for The conversation with Jayanth K. on The Powerful Humans revealed a serious aspect of the AI discussion. We often talk about technology, gadgets, or investments, but the real impact is on employment. Millions of people will feel this shift directly in their livelihoods. Jobs, Employment, and Skills – The Deeper Layer ⚡ White Collar Contraction • AI is now automating coding, design, customer service, and reporting. • Startups are running lean with very small teams. • The result is fewer human employees being needed. ⚡ Blue Collar Shift • Delivery and driving jobs are increasingly under threat. • Drones, driverless cars, and robotic warehouses are replacing humans. • Logistics and transport roles are among the most vulnerable. ⚡ Education vs Industry Gap • AI disruption is coming in the next five to ten years. • Education reforms in India may take four to five decades. • Fresh graduates risk being outdated from their very first job. ⚡ Degrees vs Adaptability • Degrees from IIT, IIM, or MBAs will no longer guarantee jobs. • Adaptability and AI skills will matter more than certificates. • Data pipelines and DeepTech knowledge will carry higher value. ⚡ Middle Jobs Collapse • High-end roles like AI scientists and researchers will expand. • Some rural and agricultural physical work may continue. • Middle jobs like clerks, BPO staff, and accountants are most at risk. ⚡ Humans + AI • Roles will not vanish overnight, but they will shrink in size. • One accountant with AI can replace a team of ten. • The same applies to law, design, coding, and research. ⚡ Regional Divide • In the West, safety nets like insurance and healthcare reduce the shock. • In India, informal jobs mean layoffs create direct financial distress. • Mass reskilling is urgent to avoid a social crisis. ⚡ Rise of Micro-Entrepreneurs • Large companies will employ fewer people in the future. • AI allows individuals to build and scale alone. • One teacher can educate thousands, and one designer can run an agency. ⚡ Universal Basic Compute • A global debate has begun on free GPU or computing access for all. • Universal compute can democratize innovation and opportunity. ⚡ India’s Way Forward • Short-term growth will come from AI in fintech, healthtech, agri tech, and edtech. • Long-term focus must be on robotics, chip design, governance, and ethics. • Safe jobs will lie in creativity, empathy, DeepTech, and leadership. The central message is clear. We cannot prepare for the next century with the tools of the last one. For India, reskilling youth in AI and DeepTech is not optional. It is a necessity. Because true wealth will not be gold or land, but intelligence, adaptability, and courage. Watch the full conversation here -https://lnkd.in/gqkB7n-t

Stanford research reveals how AI is reshaping entry-level employment: the data tells a complex story. New research from Stanford examining the widespread adoption of generative AI provides valuable insights into evolving labor market dynamics, offering important data to help us navigate this transformation thoughtfully. Key findings from the study: 1 - Early-career workers (ages 22-25) in AI-exposed occupations like software development and customer service have experienced a 13% relative decline in employment 2 - Overall employment continues to grow robustly, showing the economy's resilience during technological transition 3 - Employment declines occur specifically in AI applications that automate work, while augmentative AI applications show no negative impact 4 - More experienced workers in the same AI-exposed occupations have seen stable or continued growth. This Stanford paper provides the evidence-based foundation needed for developing workforce policies, educational programs, and business practices that harness AI's benefits while creating pathways for emerging talent. Understanding these patterns now gives us the opportunity to proactively shape AI adoption in ways that strengthen rather than disrupt career development. How can we leverage these insights to design AI implementations that create more opportunities for all professionals? (link to the report in the comments)

The image below projects the U.S. jobs most likely to face declines over the next decade, highlighting the critical need to prepare for a rapidly evolving workforce. While these specific numbers may vary in accuracy, the trend is undeniable: automation and AI are reshaping the job market faster than ever. Cashiers, customer service representatives, office clerks, and others are at the forefront of this shift, driven by automation, self-checkouts, and online platforms. But this trend isn’t just about numbers. It’s a call to action for reskilling and upskilling on a global scale. Governments, businesses, and educational institutions must prioritize equipping people with new skills, especially in leveraging AI and emerging technologies. AI is not just a disruptor—it’s the new electricity for white-collar work. The message is clear: Everyone needs to learn how to work alongside AI to remain competitive in this fast-evolving landscape. Governments should focus not just on the jobs we’re losing but on the opportunities we can create with AI. Reskilling isn’t optional—it’s essential for the workforce of tomorrow. #FutureOfWork #AI #Reskilling #Innovation #Leadership

What does nearly a billion job ads tell us about the future of work? That’s the question we set out to answer with PwC’s 2025 AI Jobs Barometer - one of the most comprehensive analyses of workforce trends in the age of AI. In this short article, I’ve summarised the key findings and explored what they mean for leaders, employees and organisations navigating rapid change. The data is clear: AI is not replacing workers - it’s increasing their value. But capitalising on this opportunity will require bold leadership, sustained investment in skills and a culture of trust and inclusion. If you’re looking for an accessible overview of the Barometer and what it means in practice, I hope this short piece offers a useful perspective but would love to know your thoughts. #PwC #AIJobsBarometer #FutureOfWork #Leadership #GenAI #WorkforceTransformation #Skills #Augmentation

New employment data reveals a harsh reality for young professionals entering the workforce. Early-career workers aged 22-25 in AI-exposed occupations have experienced a 13% relative decline in employment since the widespread adoption of generative AI. The most affected roles? - Software developers - Customer service representatives - Clerical positions - Content creators - Business analysts What's concerning is that overall economic employment continues to grow. The jobs exist, but young people in these sectors aren't getting them. This isn't a temporary blip. Right now represents the worst AI will ever be. As the technology improves, we can expect this trend to expand beyond entry-level positions. But there's a silver lining for those willing to adapt. The same AI technology creating this displacement has also lowered the barriers to entrepreneurship more than ever before. Starting companies, building products, and creating services has become increasingly accessible. The question isn't whether AI will continue disrupting traditional employment paths. It's whether young professionals will compete or complain. ___________________ P.S. Follow me (Anthony Pompliano) for more insights on business, finance, & technology!