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Option Probability Calculator

This document provides an option probability calculator that estimates the likelihood of various outcomes for a stock over the next 50 days, based on the current stock price of $1,000, implied volatilities of 40% for calls and puts, and specified target stock prices. It calculates a 55.32% probability that the stock price will close above $1,020 for call options to finish in the money, and a 66.20% probability that the stock price will close below $940 for put options to finish in the money. There is a 98% probability the stock price will expire between $996.96 and $1,003.05.

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Sanachit Mehra
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105 views

Option Probability Calculator

This document provides an option probability calculator that estimates the likelihood of various outcomes for a stock over the next 50 days, based on the current stock price of $1,000, implied volatilities of 40% for calls and puts, and specified target stock prices. It calculates a 55.32% probability that the stock price will close above $1,020 for call options to finish in the money, and a 66.20% probability that the stock price will close below $940 for put options to finish in the money. There is a 98% probability the stock price will expire between $996.96 and $1,003.05.

Uploaded by

Sanachit Mehra
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Option Probability Calculator

http://investexcel.net

Parameters
Current Stock Price
Call Implied Volatility
Put Implied Volatility
Days to Expiration

$1,000.00
40.0%
40.0%
50

Call Probabilities
Target
Winning Close Above
Stock Price Probability
Target
$1,020.00
55.32%
44.68%
Put Probabilities
Target
Winning Close Below
Stock Price Probability
Target
$940.00
66.20%
33.80%
Probability of Stock Expiring in Range
Winning
Lower
Upper
Probability Stock Price Stock Price
98%
$996.96
$1,003.05

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