The CDS market: A primer
Including computational remarks on Default
Probabilities online
Roland Beck, Risk Analysis Group
The CDS market: A primer
Folie 2
Credit Default Swaps
Short Introduction
CDS are similar to buying insurance against default or covered credit
events
Protection buyer pays so called default swap premium, usually
expressed in basis points
If specified event (mostly default) is triggered, protection seller covers
occurred losses
In practice, buyer delivers specific predefined asset (bonds, loans) to
seller and receives 100% of the notional specified in the CDS contract
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CDS: Methods of Settlement
Physical delivery of the reference security
Physical delivery of equivalent asset
Cash Settlement
Example, Argentine plain vanilla bond, actual price = 20
z Physical settlement: Protection buyer delivers reference security,
protection seller has to pay 100
z Cash settlement: Protection buyer receives 100-20 = 80 from
protection seller and keeps security
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Credit Default Swaps
Historic Market Development
Since early 1990s CDS
market evolved into a major
component of capital markets
Removal of current regulatory
uncertainty (Basle II) is
expected to lead to further
rapid market growth
Sovereign CDS benefited
from standardisation in
98/99 as well as successful
execution in recent defaults
-40%
Elimination of Argentine reference
assets after default in 2001
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Credit Default Swaps
Emerging Markets Focus
Emerging Markets are relatively
small in absolute size
Strong focus on Sovereign
CDS as they are considered
the most liquid derivatives in
Emerging Markets
Market liquidity generally shows
strong dependency on liquidity
of respective bond markets
Emerging Markets Sovereign
CDS are highly concentrated in
relatively few names (Top 7
account for 50% of total market)
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Credit Default Swaps
Latin America Brazil bond spreads and external factors
Mid 98 Russian crisis
emerges
Jan 99 BRL allowed to
move freely, markets rally
Jul 02 BRL at all-time low,
financial markets panic
Oct 02 Lula da Silva
wins presidential elections
Apr 04 Greenspan
announces possibility of
Fed rate increase
Oct 97 Asian crisis
hits Indonesia, Japan
and Korea
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Credit Default Swaps
Brazil CDS as Early Warning Indicator
Spread Comparison Brazil 09 vs. 5y CDS
Mid 02 Pre-election crisis
Apr 04 Greenspan
announces possibility of
Fed rate increase
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Brazil 09
Folie 8
CDS Brazil
May-04
Mar-04
Jan-04
Nov-03
Sep-03
Jul-03
May-03
Mar-03
Jan-03
Nov-02
Sep-02
Jul-02
May-02
Mar-02
Jan-02
Nov-01
Sep-01
Jul-01
May-01
0
Mar-01
CDS movements generally
leading bond spread
movements
Applies especially for
longer term changes in
Sovereign risk
CDS liquidity and volumes
tend to increase in view of
looming crisis while bond
market activity tends to
shrink/dry up
CDS spreads versus bond spreads
Shortcomings in imperfect markets
No arbitrage conditions should exist
Credit risk prices for bonds and CDS are equal over the long term
Price differentials can appear due to:
Information unrelated to the credit risk is priced in, especially
liquidity
Contractual arrangements, i.e. Sovereign CDS mostly use old
ISDA 99 restructuring clauses
Accrued interest premium for CDS
Cheapest to deliver option for protection buyer
CDS spreads are quoted on Act/360 basis while bond spreads
are quoted o 30/360 basis
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Computational remarks on Default
Probabilities online
Folie 10
What are CDS spreads?
Definition: CDS spread = Premium paid by protection buyer to the seller
Quotation: In basis points per annum of the contracts notional amount
Payment: Quarterly
Example: A CDS spread of 593 bp for five-year Brazilian debt means
that default insurance for a notional amount of USD 1 m costs USD
59,300 p.a. This premium is paid quarterly (i.e. 14,825 per quarter).
Note: Concept of CDS spread (insurance premium in % of notional)
Concept of yield spread (yield differential of a bond over US
Treasury yield)
However: Arbitrage ensures that CDS spread bond yield spread
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How do CDS spreads relate to the probability of default?
The simple case
Consider a 1-year CDS contract and assume that the total premium is
paid up front
Let S: CDS spread (premium), p: default probability, R: recovery rate
The protection buyer expects to pay: S
His expected pay-off is (1-R)p
When two parties enter a CDS trade, S is set so that the value of the
swap transaction is zero, i.e.
S=(1-R)p S/(1-R)=p
If R=25%, a spread of 500 bp translates into p =6.6%.
If R=0, we have S=p=5%.
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How do CDS spreads relate to the probability of default?
The real world case
Consider now the case where
Maturity = N years
Premium is paid in fractions di (for quarterly payments di =0.25)
Cash flows are discounted with a discount factor from the U.S. zero
curve D(ti)
For convenience, let
q=1-p
denote the survival probability of the reference credit with a time profile
q(ti), i=1N
Assume that there is no counterparty risk.
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Valuation of a CDS contract in the real world case
With proper discounting and some basic probability math, you get
PV [fixed payments] =
D(ti )q(ti)Sdi
=4
1 4244
i1
3
Discounted premium payments if no default occurs
PV [contingent payments] =
(1 R )
123
Compensation payment
Accrued premium payments if default occurs between payments dates
D(t )
i
i =1
di
D(ti){q(ti 1 ) q(ti)}S
2
=4
1 444244443
i1
{q (ti 1) q(ti )} (2)
144244
3
Prob. of default in respect. period
Note that the two parties enter the CDS trade if the value of the
swap transaction is set to zero, i.e. (1)=(2)
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(1)
