Title of Unit

Curriculum Area
Developed By

Probability
Grade Level
Algebra 2
Time Frame
Alyssa Hogan/Joanne Lambert/Linda Hein

9th and 10th grade

September 30th October 16th (aprox.)

Identify Desired Results (Stage 1)

Content Standards
Standards of Mathematical Practice Addressed:
CCSS.Math.Practice.MP1 Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.
CCSS.Math.Practice.MP2 Reason abstractly and quantitatively.
CCSS.Math.Practice.MP3 Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.
CCSS.Math.Practice.MP4 Model with mathematics.
CCSS.Math.Practice.MP5 Use appropriate tools strategically.
CCSS.Math.Practice.MP6 Attend to precision.
CCSS.Math.Practice.MP7 Look for and make use of structure.
Common Core State Standards Addressed:
S.CP.1: Describe events as subsets of a sample space using characteristics of outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events.
S.CP.2: Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and
use this characterization to determine if they are independent.
S.CP.3: Understand the conditional probability of A given B and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given
B is the same as the probability of A, and conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B.
S.CP.5: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations
S.CP.6: Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B's outcomes that also belong to A, and interpret the answer in terms of the
model.
S.CP.7: Apply the Addition Rule, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B), and interpret the answer in terms of the model.
S.CP.9: Use permutations and combinations to compute probabilities of compound events and solve problems.

Understandings
Overarching Understanding
Students will explore and be able to use basic counting strategies to
develop sample spaces used to determine the probability of an event.
Students will also be able to effectively construct and use visual displays
to organize, analyze, and evaluate data sets.
Related Misconceptions
- Misconception about the nature of randomness: The tendency of
students to incorrectly think that samples which correspond to the
population distribution are more probable than samples which do not.
For example in tossing a coin, students with this misperception will think
that a series of coin tosses that has approximately equal numbers of
heads and tails is more probable than a series with many more tails than
heads. However, the Probability for both series is the same.

Essential Questions
Overarching
How can you use basic
counting strategies to
develop sample spaces used
to determine the probability
of an event?
What do you already know
about probability? How can
you build upon my previous
knowledge?
How can visual displays be
used to organize, analyze
and evaluate data sets?
How can you use probability
to analyze a given set of

Topical
What is the difference
between independent and
dependent events?
What is the difference
between a combination and
a permutation?
How are theoretical and
experimental probabilities
similar? How are they
different?
How are mutually exclusive
events different from
independent events?
How can you use what you

- Equiprobability bias: The tendency of students to view several

outcomes of an experiment as equally likely. For example, students with
equiprobability bias misconception think that when two dice are rolled,
all the sums possible are equally probable. They do not realize that the
sum of 6 or 7 for the two dice is more likely than the sum of 2 or 12.

Students will know

have learned to analyze a

given set of data and arrive
at a well-supported
conclusion?
What different type of
information can you gather
from using conditional
probability vs
experimental/theoretical
probability?

Objectives
Skills

Knowledge
-

data and form conclusions?

What can you do if you do
not understand a topic?
How can you use your
understanding to help your
peers?

Students will be able to

The Fundamental Counting Principle.

Definitions and probability rules for combinations and
permutations.
The difference between theoretical and experimental probability.
Definitions and probability rules for independent events and
dependent events.
Definitions and probability rules for mutually exclusive events and
inclusive events.

Solve problems involving the Fundamental Counting

Principle.
Solve problems involving permutations and
combinations.
Determine the theoretical probability of an event.
Find the experimental probability of an event.
Determine if events are independent or dependent.
Determine the probability of independent and
dependent events.
Determine the probability of mutually exclusive
events.
Determine the probability of inclusive events.
Determine the probability of conditional events.
Determine if an event is conditional.
Use their knowledge of probability to analyze a given
set of data and form conclusions.
Critique the reasoning of their peers and construct
their own viable arguments.
Make sense of problems and persevere in solving
them
Ask questions of their peers when they are confused.

Assessment Evidence (Stage 2)

Performance Task Description
Goal

To investigate the validity of the claims of passenger survival on the Titanic using probability and a

Role
Audience
Situation

Product/Performance
Standards

given set of data. The students will be required to find different types of probabilities, including
conditional probability. They will also be required to determine what steps need to be taken in order
to gather enough evidence to present a well-supported conclusion.
Summative Assessment
Ms. Hogan and Mrs. Lambert
At the end of the unit, before the benchmark unit assessment, students will be given the entire class
period to work individually on this performance task. The task will go over material that has
explicitly been covered in class, but will also require students to use what they have learned to go a
step further in determine how to use their knowledge to answer questions.
-Answers to all provided questions Insightful responses to the open ended questions that indicate an
understanding of the probability knowledge they have acquired Presenting a final claim with data
and calculations to back it up.
S.CP.1, S.CP.2, S.CP.3, S.CP.5, and S.CP.6 (As described above)

Other Evidence
-If students are doing the calculations incorrectly, and are not answering the open ended questions it is obvious that they need a lot
more additional practice with the probability unit.
-If students are only doing the calculations required of them, then it would appear as though those students do not understand the
conceptual meanings behind what they have learned, but only memorized how to do the calculations.
-If students are doing the calculations correctly, and are making claims supported by their calculations I can infer that they have a quite
good understanding of the probability material.
-Students answers to the last questions, where they are given little to no guidance about how to go about answering it, will really
determine their understanding of the concepts if they can use what they have learned to support their claim. They will have to use
what they know about probability to gather data from the information given in order to come up with evidence to support a conclusion.

Learning Plan (Stage 3)

Day in Unit
Day 1

Lesson
Topic

Lesson Learning
Objective

Description of how
lesson contributes to
unit-level objectives

Assessment activities

Fundamenta
l
Counting
Principle
(11.1)

-Students will be able to solve

problems involving the
fundamental counting
principle.
-Students will be able to
critique the reasoning of their
peers and construct their own
viable arguments.
-Students will be able to make
sense of problems and
persevere in solving them

This lesson begins with an

exploration where students have
the opportunity to discover the
fundamental counting principle
in small groups and then
together as a class. Each small
group will be given a situation
where they have to determine
the total number of possible
outcomes. We will then have a
group discussion where we try

-Fundamental Counting Principle

Exploration
-Definition of Fundamental
Counting Principle as a class
-Quick Check/Self-Assessment
-Individual Practice

-Students will be able to ask

questions of their peers when
they are confused.

Day 2

Combinatio
ns and
Permutation
s (11.1)

-Students will be able to solve

problems involving
permutations and
combinations.
-Students will be able to
critique the reasoning of their
peers and construct their own
viable arguments.
-Students will be able to make
sense of problems and
persevere in solving them
-Students will be able to ask
questions of their peers when
they are confused.

Day 3

Fundamenta
l Counting
Principle,
Combinatio
ns and
Permutation

-Students will be able to solve

problems involving the
fundamental counting
principle.
-Students will be able to solve
problems involving

and determine a connection

between the number of
decisions that had to be made
and the number of choices you
had and the total number of
possible outcomes. This will
hopefully lead us to the
definition of the Fundamental
Counting Principle. Students will
then be given more independent
practice on solving problems
with the fundamental counting
principle
This lesson begins with an
exploration where students will
discover the difference between
combinations and permutations
in small groups (whether the
order matters or not). They will
be given two different types of
drawings (one where order
matters and one where order
does not matter) and will be
asked to determine the total
number of possible outcomes
for each one and then compare
the two and which one they
would rather be a contestant in.
We will then complete a note
packet as a class that will
contain the definitions of
combinations and permutations
and give students opportunities
to practice problems involving
permutations and combinations
and determining the difference
between the two.
This lesson will begin with a mini
performance task (attached
below) on using the
fundamental counting principle
and their knowledge of
combinations and permutations.

-Combination/Permutation
Exploration
-Complete 11.1 note packet with
PowerPoint
-Quick Check/Self-Assessment
-Individual Practice

-FCP,
Combinations/Permutations
Performance Task
-Probability Exploration
-HW: Watch 11.2 Video

s, Begin
Probability
(11.1)

Day 4

Theoretical
and
Experiment
al
Probability
(11.2)

Day 5

Theoretical
and
Experiment
al

permutations and
combinations
-Students will be able to find
the theoretical probability of
an event
-Students will be able to find
the experimental probability of
an event
-Students will be able to
critique the reasoning of their
peers and construct their own
viable arguments.
-Students will be able to make
sense of problems and
persevere in solving them
-Students will be able to ask
questions of their peers when
they are confused.
-Students will be able to find
the theoretical probability of
an event
-Students will be able to find
the experimental probability of
an event
-Students will be able to
critique the reasoning of their
peers and construct their own
viable arguments.
-Students will be able to make
sense of problems and
persevere in solving them
-Students will be able to ask
questions of their peers when
they are confused.

-Students will be able to find

the theoretical probability of
an event
-Students will be able to find

After that, students will work on

an exploration where they can
begin to think about probability
in small groups. They will
conduct a mini experiment in
groups where they are trying
the catch a leprechaun that
went into a maze and they only
had 4 traps to set up at 4 of the
10 exits. They are determining
how often the leprechaun will
escape/be caught which will
lead right into probability.

This lesson will have more of a

lecture format, I will go through
the notes/examples with the
students as a class for this
lesson. Students who watched
the video the night before will
be given the self-assessment at
the beginning of the hour.
Students will be able to
determine the difference
between theoretical and
experimental probability which
will build off of the exploration
they did the previous lesson and
also their knowledge of the
fundamental counting principle/
combinations/ permutations that
they have already learned.
Probability uses all of those
concepts, and students will learn
how to do this.
This day we will play the game
Deal or No Deal as a class; as
we make our way through the
game, students will have a

-11.2 Notes with PowerPoint

-Quick Check/Self-Assessment
-Individual Practice

-Deal or No Deal Game with

Worksheet
-HW: Watch 11.3 Video

Probability
(11.2)

Day 6

Independen
t and
Dependent
Events and
Conditional
Probability
(11.3)

Day 7

All of
Chapter 11
up to this
point (11.111.3)

the experimental probability of

an event
-Students will be able to
critique the reasoning of their
peers and construct their own
viable arguments.
-Students will be able to make
sense of problems and
persevere in solving them
-Students will be able to ask
questions of their peers when
they are confused.
-Students will be able to
determine if events are
independent or dependent
-Students will be able to find
the probability of independent
and dependent events
-Students will be able to
determine the probability of
conditional events.
-Students will be able to
critique the reasoning of their
peers and construct their own
viable arguments.
-Students will be able to make
sense of problems and
persevere in solving them
-Students will be able to ask
questions of their peers when
they are confused.
-Students will be able to solve
problems involving the
fundamental counting
principle.
-Students will be able to solve
problems involving
permutations and
combinations
-Students will be able to find
the theoretical probability of

worksheet to fill out that gives

them more practice determining
probabilities.

This day will be of a lecture

format; I will go through the
notes/examples with the
students as a class. Students
who watched the video the night
before will be given the selfassessment at the beginning of
the hour. Students will be able
to determine if events are
independent or dependent and
how to find the probability of
both types of events. This build
upon the
theoretical/experimental
probability lesson because it is
going one step further and uses
what they know about
theoretical probability and apply
it to understanding how to find
conditional probability for
dependent events.
Today will be a Word Problem
Day where students will work in
small groups on a collection of
word problems that contain
problems from all sections of
chapter 11 that they have
learned so far.

-11.3 Notes with PowerPoint

-Quick Check/Self-Assessment
-Individual Practice

-Word Problem Worksheet

Day 8

All of
Chapter 11
up to this
point (11.111.3)

an event
-Students will be able to find
the experimental probability of
an event
-Students will be able to
determine if events are
independent or dependent
-Students will be able to find
the probability of independent
and dependent events
-Students will be able to
critique the reasoning of their
peers and construct their own
viable arguments.
-Students will be able to make
sense of problems and
persevere in solving them
-Students will be able to ask
questions of their peers when
they are confused.
-Students will be able to solve
problems involving the
fundamental counting
principle.
-Students will be able to solve
problems involving
permutations and
combinations
-Students will be able to find
the theoretical probability of
an event
-Students will be able to find
the experimental probability of
an event
-Students will be able to
determine if events are
independent or dependent
-Students will be able to find
the probability of independent
and dependent events
-Students will be able to
critique the reasoning of their
peers and construct their own

Today will be a review day for a

quiz on sections 11.1-11.3. The
review will be done in pairs or
groups of three and using
stations around the room with
different types of problems from
all of the different sections.
Students will also be given a
comprehensive list of all of the
lesson objectives so they can
evaluate themselves and
determine how prepared they
are for the quiz, and what they
may need additional help on.

-Quiz review stations and

worksheets
-Lesson Objectives list

Day 9

All of
Chapter 11
up to this
point (11.111.3)

Day 10

Mutually
Exclusive
and
Inclusive
Events
(11.4)

viable arguments.
-Students will be able to make
sense of problems and
persevere in solving them
-Students will be able to ask
questions of their peers when
they are confused.
-Students will be able to solve
problems involving the
fundamental counting
principle.
-Students will be able to solve
problems involving
permutations and
combinations
-Students will be able to find
the theoretical probability of
an event
-Students will be able to find
the experimental probability of
an event
-Students will be able to
determine if events are
independent or dependent
-Students will be able to find
the probability of independent
and dependent events
-Students will be able to
critique the reasoning of their
peers and construct their own
viable arguments.
-Students will be able to make
sense of problems and
persevere in solving them
-Students will be able to ask
questions of their peers when
they are confused.
-Students will be able to find
the probability of mutually
exclusive events
-Students will be able to find
the probability of inclusive
events

Today will be a quiz on 11.111.3.

-Quiz 11.1-11.3
-HW: Watch 11.4 Video

This day will be of a lecture

format; I will go through the
notes/examples with the
students as a class. Students
who watched the video the night
before will be given the self-

-11.4 Notes with PowerPoint

-Quick Check/Self-Assessment
-Individual Practice

-Students will be able to

critique the reasoning of their
peers and construct their own
viable arguments.
-Students will be able to make
sense of problems and
persevere in solving them
-Students will be able to ask
questions of their peers when
they are confused.
Day 11

All Sections
of Chapter
11 up to
this point
(11.1-11.4)

-Students will be able to solve

problems involving the
fundamental counting
principle.
-Students will be able to solve
problems involving
permutations and
combinations
-Students will be able to find
the theoretical probability of
an event
-Students will be able to find
the experimental probability of
an event
-Students will be able to
determine if events are
independent or dependent
-Students will be able to find
the probability of independent
and dependent eventsStudents will be able to find
the probability of mutually
exclusive events
-Students will be able to find
the probability of inclusive
events
-Students will be able to
critique the reasoning of their
peers and construct their own
viable arguments.
-Students will be able to make
sense of problems and

assessment at the beginning of

the hour. Students will be able
to find the probability of
mutually exclusive and inclusive
events. Again this builds upon
what they have learned already
with theoretical probability
where they can use it to
determine the probability of
mutually exclusive and inclusive
events.
Today will be a performance task
(attached below) to assess the
students understanding of all of
chapter 11 up to this point
(11.1-11.4). This task has
questions that draw from every
section of the chapter and will
allow me to determine what
students need additional
practice on, or what they are
already proficient in. The task
first gives students a set of data
about the total number of
passengers that were on the
Titanic and their class and
whether they survived or not.
They are asked to determine is
the rescue procedures favored
the wealthier 1st class. The last
question of the performance
task just gives students the
survival rates based on gender
within the different classes, and
poses the belief that the survival
rates can be explained by the
women and children first
policy. Students are then asked
to investigate what might and
might not be concluded from the
given data. This is a very open
ended question, which gives
students no guidance to solving

-11.1-11.4 Titanic Performance

Task

persevere in solving them

-Students will be able to ask
questions of their peers when
they are confused.
Day 12

All Chapter
11 up to
this point
(11.1-11.4)

-Students will be able to solve

problems involving the
fundamental counting
principle.
-Students will be able to solve
problems involving
permutations and
combinations
-Students will be able to find
the theoretical probability of
an event
-Students will be able to find
the experimental probability of
an event
-Students will be able to
determine if events are
independent or dependent
-Students will be able to find
the probability of independent
and dependent eventsStudents will be able to find
the probability of mutually
exclusive events
-Students will be able to find
the probability of inclusive
events
-Students will be able to
critique the reasoning of their
peers and construct their own
viable arguments.
-Students will be able to make
sense of problems and
persevere in solving them
-Students will be able to ask
questions of their peers when
they are confused.

and will really allow me to see

what students know about
probability and how they can
use it to analyze data and arrive
at a well-supported conclusion.
Today will be a review for the
BUA (Benchmark Unit
Assessment, which is a district
wide exam for the unit). The
exam review will be done in
small groups and will consist of
questions from all of the
sections of chapter 11 with
emphasis on the topics that
students demonstrated that
they needed additional practice
in from the performance task.

-BUA Review

Day 13

All Chapter
11 up to
this point
(11.1-11.4)

-Students will be able to solve

problems involving the
fundamental counting
principle.
-Students will be able to solve
problems involving
permutations and
combinations
-Students will be able to find
the theoretical probability of
an event
-Students will be able to find
the experimental probability of
an event
-Students will be able to
determine if events are
independent or dependent
-Students will be able to find
the probability of independent
and dependent events
-Students will be able to find
the probability of mutually
exclusive events
-Students will be able to find
the probability of inclusive
events
-Students will be able to
critique the reasoning of their
peers and construct their own
viable arguments.
-Students will be able to make
sense of problems and
persevere in solving them
-Students will be able to ask
questions of their peers when
they are confused.

Today is the BUA for the

probability unit. Students will
be assessed on their
understanding of the material as
laid out in the lesson objectives.

-Probability BUA