\IIORLD .

cuTURE SOCIETt'

Lese six volumes, edited by Howard F. Didsbury Jr. to accompany World Future Society conferences and assemblies, provide a fascinating compendium of thinking about the future. Articles by some of the most important individuals involved in futures studies are collected in volumes dealing with each conference's specific theme. If you haven't been to aU of the Society's conferences, here's an easy way to benefit from some of the thinking that went into them.

The Future: Opportunity Not Destiny (1989). This collection of essays published in conjunction with "Future View: The 19909 & Beyond," the World Future Soeiety's Sixth General Assembly, features contributions by more than 20 distinguished futurists, putting the problems of the next decade into a historical perspective and analyzing the challenges to be met. 301 pages.

Challenges and Opportunities: From Now to 2001 (1986). Robert Lee Chartrand, Dietrich Fischer, Parker Rossman, Takeshi Utsumi, and other experts in crisis management and conflict resolution discuss the challenges the world will face during the next 15 years. Prepared in conjunction with "FutureFocus: The Next Fifteen Years." 303 pages.

The Global Economy: Today, Tomo.rrow, and the Transition (1985). Economic ex-

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perts such as Jan Tinbergen, David Macarov, Frederick Thayer, Yoshihiro Kogane, and others discuss the problems and opportunities fating the world's economy. Prepared in conjunction with the World Future Society's 1985 special conference on the global economy. 405 pages.

Creating a Global Agenda: Assessments, Solutions, and Action Plans (1984). Finding solutions to global problems is the theme of this upbeat collection of papers by noted futurists such as Robert McNamara, Glenn Seaborg, Harlan Cleveland, Aurelio Peccei, Robert Theobald, John Platt, Lester Brown, and W. Warren Wagar, among others. Prepared for "WorldView '84," the Fifth General Assembly of the World Future Society, 346 pages.

The World of Work: Careers and the Future (1983). Important issues affecting work and careers in the years ahead are explored in

this volume prepared in conjunction with

the World Future Society's 1983 conference, "Working Now and in the Future." Authors include John Diebold, Marvin Cetron, Amitai Etzioni, Gary Hart, and others. 338 pages.

CommuniGiitions and the Future: Prospects, Promises, and Problems (1982). Forty-six selected papers, written by 58 authors, presenting the latest findings and think-

ing on the communications revolution. Prepared for the World Future Society's Fourth General Assembly, "Communications and the Future," in 1982.357 pages.

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November-December 1993 Volume 27, No.6

DEPARTMENTS

2 Letters
5 Tomorrow in Brief
Synthetic vision
High-tech harassment
Baby-friendly hospitals
... and more
7 Future Scope
AIDS and sex
The trouble with money
... and more
49 The Futurist Poll
Is hope endangered?
Results: obligations
51 Future Active
Flying robots
African Futures
... and more
60 The Futurist Quiz
62 Institutional Members BOOKS

37 The Coming Global Superorganism

A book review by Edw.ard Cornish

Biophysicist Gregory Stock argues that future humans will become part biological, part mechanical, and part electronic as Man evolves into Metamtlll.

38 Books in Brief Progress

The Way

The Living Orgonization

40 The Futurist Bookshelf

42 Reinventing the World

By Cynthia G. Wagner

Participants at the World Future Society'S Seventh General Assembly were out to reinvent the world. The 600 speakers bursting with new ideas gave futurists a taste of "creative chaos."

ARTICLES

8 The West's Deepening Cultural Crisis

By Richard Eckersley

Growing crime rates, increasing drug problems, rampant violence, and widespread depressive illness are all signs of Western culture's deepening crisis.

14 There's No Place Like

OUT Place! The Marketing of Cities, Regions, and Nations By Philip Kotler, Donald Haider, and Irving Rein

All places must think more like businesses if they hope to win the "place wars."

18 Place Wars and the Olympic Games

By Stephen E. Roulac

By hosting the Summer Olympics in 1996, Atlanta will have the chance to strut its stuff in the global "place market."

23 Europe: The Coming of the "Nonmaterial" Society

By J. f'lrstr€fm Meller

Rather than becoming a United States of Europe, European Community members are forging ahead with a plan of decentralization.

29 Outlook '94

A special report, assembled by the staff of THE FUTURlST, containing thought-provoking forecasts on subjects ranging from crime to food, hom habitats to world affairs.

WORLD TRENDS & FORECASTS

64 FUTUltE VIEW:

Individual Rights and Community Responsibilities By Amitai Eizioni

Americans may commit themselves to an ethic of "We" rather than "Me."

56 Resources Precision Farming

56 Health

Good for What Ails You

Ten Forecasts fOT Health Care

58 Computers

The Networked States of America

59 Work

Professionals on the Move

Cover: The global competition to attract new businesses, tourists, conventions, and special events is forcing all places to market themselves more strategically. See the articles on pages 14 and 18. Photo: Barry Blackman f FPG International.

LETTERS

• Fuzzy Futurology

In his letter in the July-August 1993 issue, Albert C. Williams challenges "Pohl's Law" (namely, "The more complete and accurate a prediction is, the less use it is") by saying that, in the mindexperiment example I give, the "prediction is not useful, but the reason is not that the prediction is so accurate. It is not useful because there is no way to do anything about it."

But that is the exact point. II a prediction can be made to be both complete and accurate, there is never any way to do anything about it.

For this reason, what might be called "fuzzy futurology"-the identification of possible future events and developments-can be of considerable use, in that it gives us the opportunity to take actions in the present to encourage or to avert specific "futuribles." Any attempt at definitively describing the future is not only (as Dennis Gabor pointed out) impossible to accomplish, but would be of no practical utility even if it could be done.

• What Indicators of Decline?

The title of Richard D. Larnm's editorial "Indicators of Decline" (Future View, July-August 1993), had me thirsting to read it. However, once I did, it seemed to me that the ex-Governor of Colorado wrote in very broad generalities and gave very few specifics to support any of his claims. For example, the "fine ex-Covernor" stated that, "the chances (70-30) are that America has entered into a cycle of decline."

From this point, without giving the reader any specihcs, Lamm goes on to support this statement with yet another generality. "It is not irreversible, but to some degree, it is inevitable," he says. SadLy, these two examples are only two of many ill the article.

J want to know specifically what makes Lamm believe that America has entered

Frederik Pohl Palatine, fllinois

THE FUTUR,IST welcomes reader feedback. Letters must be typed or neatly printed and include your full name and address. Letters will be edited, if required. Please. send correspondence lor this column to: letters to the Editor, THE FUTURIST, 7910 wcocmom Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814.

into such a cycle of decline. The subject of his article is a very serious one, and readers deserve mOI1e than general statements.

Javan Griffin Baltimore, Maryland

Editor's note: Lamms unabridged argument, entitled "America in Decline?," is published in The Years Ahead: Perils, Problems, and Promises, edited by Howard F. Didsbury Jr. This volume of essays was printed in conjunction with the World Future Society'S Seventh General Assembly (June 27-July 1, 1993). Copies are available through the Futurist Bookstore for $24.50 ($16.95 for Society members).

• Walking Prisons:

Orwellian Scenarios

Max Winkler's vision of human tracking devices ("Walking Prisons," JulyAugust 1993) is another example of what's wrong with a lot of the futurist community. Winkler seems to believe that, if only we have a better technology, then we'll make progress, and then the future will be better than the present.

Winkler fails to address several disturbing assumptions that underlie his Orwellian scenarios about tracking and controlling human movements. The first assumption is that the technology will only be used for criminals. What's to stop these insidious systems from being used to control all people? The second assumption is that the solution lies in the effects (too many inmates) rather than the causes (too many laws and lawyers).

The final assumption is that such systems are in the best interests of SOCiety. But belter education, vocational training, and psychotherapy would do more to help troubled people grow, while WInkler's vision would only shut them down.

Charles Cresson Wood SausaIito, California

• "Supercities" Miss the Boat

In "Tomorrow's Supercities" (MayJune 1993), THE FUTURIST missed the boat on what the main challenges are for city planners today and probably during the next century. These challenges do not involve just bu.ilding bigger urban structures on stranger sites, with morecomplex movement systems. Such "mega-bizarros" are simply engineering curiosities.

The challenges actually involve building at a more-human scale and in a continued on page 61

2 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

IFUTUIVST

STAFF

Edward Cornish Editor

Cynthia G. Wagner M~ nagi"g E.rU!Qr Kevin McGIrinne;;s Robert M. Scl1ley frances Segraves Sluff Editors

Mariana Seriff Gr.lves Fowler Associates Ar; Director

Lisa Mathias Typl!Se/ler

CONTRI.BUTING EDITORS

Clement Bezold, Governmetll; Gareth Branwyn, Ccml'utrn; Elliott Frauenglass, Pertee Resenrd,; Ralph Hamil. General; Barbara Hubbard, Images of klti11; Andrew La.wle:r, Space; Joseph P. Martino, Techrwlogical ForeMsting; Roy Mason, Arc/!iledure; Jay

5. MendeU, IrmDlltltian; William 1. Renfro, Issues Mnnagemrnt; David P. Snyder, Lifl!Slyles; Gene Stephens, Criminal Justice; Gary

Sycalik, Problemntic Futures

THE FUTURIST (lSSN 0016-3317) is published bimonthly by the World Future Society, 7910 Woodmon! Avenue, Suite ~50, Bethesda, Maryland 20814, U.S.A. Telephone 301/656- 8274. Fax 301/951-0394. Included with membership in the World Future Society (Dues; $30 per year for individuals). Subscriptions for libraries and other fnstitutlons are $42 annually. Payment may be made in U.S. cur" rency or by credit can:t No ad d itionalcharge is made for overseas surface postage; for airmail delivery anywhere in the world, add .$22 per yea r. For orders to be deli vered in the state of Maryland add a 5% sales tax.

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The World future Society: An Association for the Study of Alternative Futures is a nonprofit educa tiona I and sci<'lltific orgilnization founded in 1966. Articles in Society publications reflect !:he views of their authors or persons qu 0 led. The Society acts as an impartial clearinghouse for a variety of differen t views and does no t take positions on what will happen or should happen in the future,

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We live in an increasingly interdependent world with distinctive local, regional, linguistic, and religious customs. When we travel, conduct business, or entertain visitors from other countries, we can be more sensitive, productive, and relaxed if we are aware of the cultural differences among us. The World Calendar has been created as across-cultural reference to assist communication and understanding on an international level.

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The World Calendar is truly the first international calendar, printed in six languages-eEnglish, French, German, Spanish, Arabic, and Japanese.

This large (11 "x14H) calendar will be an attractive addition to. any .room-whether at home or the office. And it will enrich each day with the wealth of international experience. Perfect for those with international business or interests.

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"Certain calendars almost seem to leap out at one, not so much for their attractiveness, for almost all are attractive, but because ofa special theme or use. This is about a calendar that fits that description.. It is not on the best-seller list, and may net be easy to find .. But worth the eHort? Decidedly: yes! The World Calendar is intercultural-in six languagesand is designed. to help us communicate and understand on an international level. There is' no color; it needs none. Its photos are striking, each chosen for its depiction of a world culture. Every school room and every home with a child in it should have one."

Minneapolis Tribune

"I have just seen your World Calendar and was very impressed. In my position, I have many occasions to see many people of aU ages who are interested in international issues and in making the world a safe place to live for everyone. Your Calendar is a wonderful affirmation of the spirit of brotherhood that we hope to share with all the people of the world."

Chades Ei!'hom, Assistant Director, CARE

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WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY

Reinventing Ourselves

Cities, states, and nations are increasingly realizing that they need to reinvent themselves if they are to survive and thrive in the next millennium. To attract businesses, tourists, entrepreneurs, and conventions, places must evaluate their strengths, define themselves clearly, and think more like a business. Doing so will help them create the future they desire. (See "There's No Place Like Our Place," page 14.)

The continent of Europe is reinventing itself for the next millennium.

TIle process is tumultuous for the European Community, which is attempting to forge links among its vastly disparate cultures. (See "Europe:

The Coming of the 'Nonmaterial' Society," page 23.)

Reinventing our organizations and ourselves for the future was an underlying theme of the World Future Society's Seventh General Assembly this summer. Futurists exchanged ideas about institutions that no longer work and ways to make them work again. (See "Reinventing the World," page 42.)

•••

In this issue you'll also find our annual Outlook report, summarizing the most thought-provoking forecasts published in THE FUTURIST in the last 12 months. In addition to forecasts and scenarios of the future, we have also reported on many "tricks of the trade" that can help you track trends for yourself.

Some of the "trackable trends" found in THE FUTURIST in the past year are clothes (july-August), language <March-April and July-August), trash (May-June), and girls (September-October). Girls? Yes, in Japan, many businesses now believe that teenage girls are the leading trendsetters of society.

If you missed these stories, you can order back issues of THE FUTUR~ 1ST for $7 each, including postage and handling. Outlook '94 begins on page 29.

•••

THE FUTURIST is pleased to announce an alliance with 3-2-1 Contact magazine, a lively, colorful publication of the Children's Television Workshop. The magazine, which is read by some 400,000 eight- to 12- year-olds, has invited THE FUTURIST to contribute to its recently inaugurated "Future File" column. Our first installment is scheduled for the January-February 1994 issue. For more information, contact 3-2-1 Contact, Children's Television Workshop, One Lincoln Plaza, New York, New York 10023, telephone 212/595-3456.

- Cynthia G. Wagner Managing Editor

4 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

DIRECTORS Harlan Oeveland

president, World Aauiemy af Art und Science Hugues de Jouvenel

execu tiw director. Associauon In temaiional« Futuribies, Paris, Prance

Vidor Ferkiss

professor of gO"Uemmrnl emeritus Georgetown University

Orville L. Freeman

attorney; [arm,r U.S. Secretary of Agriculture John W. Gardner

a u I hor and ph ilosop!ter

William E. Ralal

professor of manage>1let1 t science, The George WI18/ri"g/on Unive'rsity

Barbara Hubbard

presiden«, The Foundation for Conscious Evolution Sol M. Unowi~

allorney; former ambassador

E[W!1 ora M. ~ini

chair, ex~c"live (:(lund/, World F~I~res Studies Pedsration, Rome. llaly

Robert S. McNamara

former president, World Bank; former U.S.

Secreta ry of Defense Michael Michaelis president, Partners ln Enterprise, Inc.

Glenn T. Seaberg

un i versity professor of cl""nistry, University of Cal iforn ia at Berkeley

lrving S. Shap iro

aUam"!!; {om,er chairman. E.I. du Panl de Nemours & Co.

Maorice F. Strong seC1'efary genlmll. U.N. Conference an Environment and Droe/opmwl Rowan A. Wakefi.,ld

{onnt:r swior editor, Tile American Family

OFFICERS Edward Cornish president

Prank Snowden Hopkins vice presiden I Graham T.T. Molitor vice pres iden/alld secretary Kenneth W. Hunter treasurer

CONSULTANTS

General Counsel, William C. Moore, Audio Chairman, Hollis B. Vail; Director of Media Projects, Howard P. Didsbury Jt:; Accountan t, James J. Crid eJ"

STAFF

Membership Department, Susan Echard (Direc/or), Frances S egrave", Anne D. Silk, Dena L. Wiggins, Gladys, Archer; Business Manager, JeHerson Cornish, Chapter Services, Ro bert M. Sch ley

OTHER PU'BlIC.ATI'ONS Futures Research Quarlerly: Co-editors -eKenneth W. Hunter, Audrey Clayton, and Timothy Mack

Future Survey: Editor - Michael Marien; Production Editor - Lane Jennings

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TOMORROW IN BRIEF

Hlgh':Tech Harassment Sexual harassment has found co new frontier on computer networks. Women on college campuses report receiving obscene messages via elecIronic bulletin boards, a-mail, and other sources thai allow the harasser to remain anonymous, according to a repo.rt by Cherts Kramarae and. H. Jeanie Taylor of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. One consequence of electronic harassment is that women are discouraged from using and benefiting from computer networks and other information systems that are advancing scholarship. Other problems women have with the electronic media include the fact that 'men monopolize the talk." The authors call for the creation of a women's cyber· space that fosters women's communication and scholarship.

Source: University of Illinois al Llrbana-Charnpaiqn, Office of Public AHairs, News Bureau, 1201 Wesl Nevada Street, U man a, illinois 61801. Women, Information Technology, and Scholarship, edited by H. Jeanie Taylor, Cherls Kramarae, and Maureen Ebben, Center for Adva need Stu dy. 1993. 126 pages. $10. Paperback,

Baby-Friendly Hospitals Hospitals in developing countries are wo~king toeam the label 'baby·friendly" from the World Health Organization and the United Nations Childr,en's Fund (UNICEF). Fifty-two hospitals in 1:2 developing nations earned the title in 1992, and hundreds more are expected to do so by the end of 1993, according to UNICEF's report, The State of the World's Children 1993 .. Baby-friendliness Includes not separating newborns from their mothers and encouraging breastfeeding. The report estimates that, in the world's poorer communities, "a million young lives could be saved every year if the world's mothers went back to exclusive breastteeding for Ihe lirst four to six months."

Simuiator tested IJy NASA res&lrcher may help pilot» fly without windows. Inset: Computer-generated "synthetic vision" will allow pilo.ts of 511 personic Ira nsport to fly th mug II fog and hea vy fa ill.

Synthetic Vision for Airplane Pilots

Future pilots will be able to fly and land aircraft safely even in very 'low visibility conditions thanks to enhanced-vision systems under development by NASA. The technology will allow flights in poor weather, redUCing delays and cutnnacosrs for airlines-and the flying public. Eventually, the technology could even allow supersonic transports 10 fly with ''windowless cockpits" that replace forward windows with "symhetic vision." Computers will produce a picture for the pilot, using data from sensors and stored geographic databases; the picture will appear either as a panoramic display to serve both pilot and co-pilot or inside a lightweight helmet-mounted display.

Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia 23681-0001.

Source: United: Nation.s Children's Fund, UNICEF House, 3 U.N. Plaza, New Ybrk, New York 10017. The State of tne 'World's Children 1993, Oxlo rd Unive IS ily Press, 200 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016 1993.90 pages. $7.50.

Fast Growth for Fac1ory-Built Homes

Converting Blood

A method of converting type A and type B blood to type 0, resuiting In a universal: blood, is undergoing clinical and laboratory testing. The research, under way at New York Blood Center's Lindsley F. Kimball Research Institute, lnvolves removing antigens-which elicit allergic responses in humans -from the surface of A and B reo blood cells. The development of a method to produce type 0 red blood cells would dramatically expand the blood supply andenhanoe transfusion capabilities, according to the Institute ..

Products for the Aging!

Recovery from the recent recession has boosted housing demand in the United States, and factory-built homes are benefiting Ihe mosl, according to a report by The Freedonia Group, which predicts Ihat lactory-buill houses will outpace total private housing starts through the end of the decade'. Factory-built housing is gaining lavor among consumers as its quality and design flexibility improve. Other favorable trends include less competition from apartments, expanding export demand, and continued cost efficiencies compared with other production methods.

Source: The Freedonia Group, 3570 Warrensville Center Road, Suite .201, Cleveland, Ohio 44122· 5226. Study 11493, "Factory-Built Housing: is available for $2,600.

A personal.-hygiene system, a wheelchair-accessible drink· ing fountain, and a touch-sensit,ive computer keyboard overlay are among new products devised to make life easier for the elderly. The Arnerican Society on Aging's fifth annual New Products for Mature Markets Design Competition awarded first prize to Swiss designer Hal Bre,gman for Lubidet, a

bidet that can be installed on new or existing toilets to provide a warm-water wash and warm-air dry for personal

cleansing for persons with

physical limitations. Other entries incl'uded an activities kit for patients with Alzheimer's disease and a wheelchair that folds up into a "seatcase.'

Lubidet, a personal-hygiene product to help physiC/ll/y lim ited persons.

Source: New York Blood Center, 310 East 67th Street, New York, New York 10021.

AorB 0

Source: Institute for Technology Development, Advanced Living Systems Division. 428 North Lamar Boulevard, Oxford, MiSSissippi 38555"9204.

THE FUTURIST November-December 1993 5

TomolTOw in Brief

Purdue University food scientist Li Fu Chen tests technique for producing silk-like c/oth from waste paper and corn stalks.

Cellulose "Silk"

Corn stalks, wasle paper, and other sources of oellulose can now be turned into a silk-like rayon. A process developed by Purdue University food-scienoe professor Li Fu Chen uses a relatively safe chemical-zinc chloride-to make fiber from low-grade cellulose such as com and wheat stalks, straw, and wood pulp. Manufacturers in the United States and Japan are studying potential uses for the process, such as low-cost biodegradable rayon yarn, cloth with a texture similar to raw silk, and insulation made from recycled newspapers.

Source: Purdue University, News Service, 1132 Engineering Administration Building, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907-1132.

Advertising via Interactive TV

Personal ads, garage-sale notices, and help-wanteds will soon be offered through interactive television. The Interactive Channel, a network of interactive television programming, will feature electronic classifieds when the network is launched across the United States in early 1994. Classified advertising contributed $10.5 billion of revenue to newspapers in 1991, so the expectations for electronic classifieds are high. Interactive television will enable viewers to call up the categories they want, retrieve images and information on demand, then complete a transaction-alllhrough their television sets. The Interactive Channel is a joint venture of Freedom Newspapers, Inc., and the IT Network.

Source: The IT Network, 8140 Walnut Hill Lane, SUite 1000, Dallas, Texas 75231.

Police Patrol Schools

A growing number of school districts are adding police officers to their staffs, according to the National School Boards Association. At least 237 school districts in 37 states and the District of Columbia now have public-school police or security operations, reports the NationaJ Alliance for Safe Schools. In Texas alone, 43 school systems have established a polioe force, employing 532 officers. Nearly 85% of Houston's schools now have armed, uniformed police officers on their staffs, confiscating guns and other weapons from students and sending the message to students and outsiders that crime will not be tolerated.

Souree: "Growing Number of Districts Adding Police Officers to Staff" by Diane Brockett, School Board News (May 11, 1993), Natienal Scheel Boards Association, 1680 Duke Street, Alexandria, Virginia 2:2314-3407.

PHOTOS: CH RVSLEA CORPORATION

Affluent Households To Increase

U.S, households earning more than $50,000 a year could grow by 37% between 1991 and the year 2005, projects demographer Thomas G. Exter in The Official Guide to American Incomes. Persons aged 45 to 64 tend to earn the largest incomes, and as the baby-boom generation swells the ranks of the middle-aged, affluence in these households will increase rapidly. The oldest and youngest householders tend to have the lowest incomes; the number of householders under age 35 will fall during the next decade, but the increase in householders aged 75 or older will slow the overall decline in low-income households. Among the trends to keep an eye on, according to Exter, are increased education levels, two-income families, and increasing entrepreneurship, all of which improve household incomes.

Seurce: The Official Guide to American Incomes, edited by Cheryl Russell and Margaret Ambry. New Strategist, P.O. Box 242, Ithaca, New York 14851.

1993. 343 pages. $69.95, plus

$3 shipping.

ChnJsler's 1994 LHS, a

roomy seda n that felll u res "functional" luxury as defined by more-pragmatic buyers.

Car Buyers Redefine "luxury"

What makes a car luxurious? Luxury-car buyers once demanded size, weight, and ornamentation, but today's high-end buyers look for more pragmatic features, according to Chrysler. "Functional luxury" is now the key, with the driver's individual needs defining what constitutes luxury. 'We've watched the evolution of concepts that previously were considered oxymoronic," says Steven A. Torok, general manager of the Chrysler-Plymouth Division. Thus, by 1996, we'll see "luxury minivans" and "luxury sport utility" cars, and "luxury" features such as ergonomics, roominess, easy handling, and quietness will be found in more mid-sized cars.

Source: Chrysler Corporation, 800 East Chrysler Drive, Auburn Hills, Michigan 48326.

6 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

FUTURE SCOPE

• The Trouble with Money Study confirms money

can't buy happiness

Most people think they'd be happy if they were wealthier, but studies by University of illinois psychologist Ed Diener' show that extra income spawns negative effects. Lifestyles become more complex, social relationships loosen, financial record keeping becomes more complicated, and fear of theft heightens when people have more money than they need, Diener found.

Receiving a pay raise temporarily raises people's level of happiness, but the glow fades as goals start to change, Diener notes. As they get used to having more money, people begin to set loftier goals that often fail to provide long-term happiness. "As you start meeting basic needs, increases in income become less and less important," he says.

The studies did not specifically indicate the income level at which diminishing "happiness" returns set in, but researchers found a declining effect of income on happiness at salaries well below $100,000. "A lot of people think, 'If I only had a million dollars, I'd be happy.' It could be true fOT an individual, but for most people, on average, it appears not to be true," Diener concludes.

Source: Untverslty of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Office of

Public Affairs, News Bureau, 1201 West Nevada Street, Urbana, Illinois 61801.

Research, Innovation, and Ideas

• AIDS and Sex

Global pandemic stimulates study of sexual behavior

Few nations conducted statistical research on sexual behavior when the AIDS epidemic began. The United States and Great Britain, for instance, rejected such research on the grounds that it invaded people's privacy. But in the last four years, research has burgeoned in the European Community (EC), according to M. Hubert of the Center for Sociological Studies in Brussels.

The EC has launched a special program to study "Sexual Behavior and the Risks of HIV Infection," covering the years 1991-1994. The effort aims to link surveys carried out in different countries, as well as to provide a bridge between sociological and epidemiological data, says Hubert. One problem to overcome is how to translate among different languages the nuances of words and expressions that subjects use, particularly with regard to sexuality-a highly emotional subject.

Thus far, the researchers have found that differences in behavior are less dependent on the level of knowledge about risks of infection than on such factors as whether the culture prizes romantic love more highly than the necessity to protect oneself.

Source: M. Hubert, Centre d'Etudes Sociologiques, Facultss Universltiares Saint-Louis, 43 Boulevard du Jardin Bolanique, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium.

• Archiving Masterpiec,es Electronic archiving preserves documents for the future

Major fires in Southern California in the past two years have wiped out more than $5 million worth of irreplaceable music, literary, and artistic masterpieces, including a special collection contained in the Los Angeles Public Library. A new project under the auspices of California Po ytechnic State University at San Luis Obispo aims to minimize the impact of such losses in the future.

Called "Phoenix Project," the venture puts students to work scanning various documents and transferring them to CD-ROM. The students gain valuable hands-on experience with the latest scanning technologies while preserving major historical archives. The equipment and scanning expertise have been donated by Plustek USA, Inc., of Santa Clara, California.

At the Huntington Library outside of Pasadena, reams of documents and astronomical charts from Galileo have already been stored with the Phoenix Project, protecting the information they contain from future fires.

Source: Plus1ek USA, lnc., 3350 Scott Boulevard, Building 46, Santa Clara .. California 95054.

• What's at the End of the Chunnel?

Super project may leave super problems in its wake

With the opening of the Channel Tunnel (or Chunnel) between France and Great Britain, sociologists and economists will have an opportunity to study the socioeconomic impacts of what has been called "the building project of the century."

Super projects like the Chunnel are under development throughout Europe, but their impacts on local economies and other aspects of life are seldom studied ahead of time (with the exception of the environmental effects).

A team of French researchers is now studying the Chunnel's impacts on land and property markets, urban-development operations, and local employment. Questions the researchers hope to answer-and pass along to planners of other super projects-include whether in the long term the Chunnel creates jobs that are accessible to local people, whether the construction workers who built the Chunnel are forced into unemployment, and whether poor families are displaced from their homes by the construction of office buildings blossoming near the Chunnel.

Source: Guy Joignaux, INRETS, 20 Rue Elisee Reclus, F-59650 Villeneuve d'Ascq, France.

THE FUTURIST November-December 1993 7

By Richard Eckersley

The West's

Growing crime rates,

Deepening Cultural

Crisis

A striking feature of .Western ci vi ~ lization is that, for all our success in reducing the toll of lives taken by disease, we have failed to diminish that exacted by despair. According to the World Health Organization, suicide has steadily increased for both males and females in the developed world since the early 1950s.

What makes the trend particularly tragic is that the increase in suicide is occurring mainly among teenagers and young adults; especially males. In several countries, induding the United States, Australia, and New Zealand, the suicide rate among young males has more than tripled since 1950.

We have also seen a dramatic deterioration in many indicators of the psychological well-being of youth over this period:

• Authorities and experts worldwide admit the war against illicit drugs is being lost, despite the expenditure of billions of dollars on law enforcement and education programs. Alcohol abuse among the young has become a major problem.

• There is a growing body of research suggesting that major depressive illness is becoming more

8 THE FUTURIST Ncoemaer-Decemoer 1993

Gin Lane (1750-51) by William Hogarth depicts drunk.enness, poverty, and "dlsfress even to madness and death," in Hogarth's words. Some 250 years later, the West's despair is deeper, as seen in artist Tom Chalk" ley's contemporary take on Gin Lane, opposite.

increasing drug

problems, rampant

violence, and

widespread depressive

illness are all signs of

Western culture's

deepening crisis.

widespread in Western societies, especially among teenagers and young adults.

• Obsessive dieting has become

commonplace among teenage girls, and the incidence of eating disorders is rising. Recent U.S. research indicates that the incidence of anorexia

-December 1993 9

-'ST November

THE FUTUR

nervosa among girls aged 10 to 19 has increased more than fivefold since the 1950s.

• Rates of crime, mainly an activity of teenage youths and young men, have risen sharply in most, if not all, Western societies since World War II, after a long decline from the high levels of the early 1800s.

The social reality reflected by these statistics is evident in any large Western city. One writer described a walk that he and his wife took through Sydney to "enjoy" the sights of the city:

We didn't. It was as if William Hogarth's Gin Lane stretched for blocks. The streets were littered with drunks, some vomiting where they stood. The footpaths outside the hotels were strewn with broken glass. People argued with and hurled abuse at one another. Others with vacant eyes stood mumbling soundlessly to themselves, arms whirling like aimless windmills. Through the streets surged packs of feral teenagers with brutish faces and foul, mindless mouths.

The reference to Hogarth's famous eighteenth-century engraving is apt: Then, the social upheaval and destruction of jobs during the Industrial Revolution, together with a booming population, produced soaring drunkenness, child abuse, and crime.

If the problems I have mentioned were limited to a small fraction of the population, while the vast majority of people were enjoying a richer and fuller life than ever before because of the changes that have taken place in recent decades-and I am not denying that there have been many positive changes-then we could conceivably argue that the problems are a price worth paying.

Yet, this is clearly not the case.

Some of the problems, such as mental illness and eating disorders, are now affecting a significant proportion of the population of Western nations. The impact of increasing crime reaches far beyond the victims and perpetrators, tainting all our lives with fear and suspicion and limiting our freedom. Furthermore, surveys of public attitudes show these problems are just the tip of an iceberg of disillusion, discontent, and disaffection.

10 THE FUTURIST Nooember-Decemoer 1993

A Breakdown in Values

The modern scourges of Western civilization, such as youth suicide, drug abuse, and crime, are usually explained in personal, social, and economic terms: unemployment, poverty, child abuse, family breakdown, and so on. And yet my own and other research suggests the trends appear to be, at least to some extent, independent of such factors. They seem to reflect something more fundamental in the nature of Western societies.

I believe this "something" is a pro~ found and growing failure of Western culture-s-a failure to provide a sense of meaning, belonging, and purpose in our lives, as well as a framework of values. People need to have something to helieve in and live for, to feel they are part of acommunity and a valued member of society, and to have a sense of spiritual fulfillment-that is, a sense of relatedness and connectedness to the world and the universe in which they exist.

The young are most vulnerable to peculiar hazards of our times. They face the difficult metamorphosis from child into adult, deciding who they are arid what they believe, and accepting responsibility for their own lives. Yet, modern Western culture offers no firm guidance, no coherent or consistent world view, and no clear moral structure to help them make this transition.

The cultural failing may be more apparent in the "new" Western societies such as the United States,

Canada, Australia, and New Zealand than in other Western societies because they are young, heterogeneous nations, without a long, shared cultural heritage or a strong sense of identity, and hence something to anchor them in these turbulent times. Older societies may offer a sense of permanence and continuity that can be very reassuring.

Interestingly, youth suicide rates have not risen in countries such as Spain and Italy, where traditional family and religious ties remain strong. And in Japan, despite the persistent myth of high levels of youth suicide, the rates have plummeted since the 196015 to be among the lowest in the industrial world.

The United States, the pacesetter of the Western world, shows many signs of a society under immense strain, even falling apart. Recent reports and surveys reveal a nation that is confused, divided, and scared. America is said to be suffering its worst crisis of confidence in 30 years and to be coming unglued culturally-the once-successful ethnic melting pot that the United States represented now coagulating into a lumpy mix of minorities and other groups who share few if any common values and beliefs. Most Americans, one survey found, no longer know right from wrong, and most believe there are no national heroes.

Although the symptoms may not be as dramatic, Australians are suffering a similar malaise. Surveys suggest a people who, beneath a professed personal optimism, nonchalance, and hedonism, are fearful, pessimistic, bewildered, cynical, and insecure; who feel destabilized and powerless in the face of accelerating cultural, economic, and technological change; and who are deeply alienated from the country's major institutions, especially government.

Children's Views of the Future

The most chilling of such surveys, in their bleakness, are the studies of how children and adolescents in Western nations see the future of the world. To cite just one example, The Sydney Morning Her.1I1d in 1990 conducted a survey in which about 120 eleven-year-old Sydney schoolchildren were asked to write down their

perceptions of Australia's future and how their country would fare in the new millennium. The idea was to publish a cheerful view of Australia's future. The newspaper chose bright, healthy youngsters, young enough to be untarnished by cynicism, yet this is what the Herald said of the results:

Yes, we expected a little economic pessimism, some gloom about the environment and job prospects and perhaps even a continuing fear of nuclear war. But nothing prepared us for the depth of the children's fear of the future, their despair about the state of our planet and their bleak predictions for their own nation" Australia.

In any other culture, at any other time, children this age would be having stories told to them that would help them to construct a world view, a cultural context, to define who they are and what they believe-a context that would give them a positive, confident outlook on life, or at least the fortitude to endure what life held in store for them.

Our children are not hearing these stories.

It may be, then, that the greatest wrong we are doing to our children is not the fractured families or the scarcity of jobs (damaging though these are), but the creation of a culture that gives them little more than themselves to believe in-and no cause for hope or optimism.

At the social level, this absence of faith grievously weakens community cohesion; at the level of the individual, it undermines our resilience, our capacity to cope with the morepersonal difficulties and hardships of everyday life.

We can see dearly the consequences for indigenous people, such as American Indians, Innuits. (Eskimos), and Australian Aborigines, when their culture is undermined by sustained contact with Western industrial society: the social apathy, the high incidence of suicide, crime, and drug abuse. We are seeing all these things increase among youth in Western societies. Other young people---the majority-may be coping and outwardly happy, but they often suggest a cynicism, hesitancy, and social passivity that reveal their uncertainty and confusion.

In making the individual the focus of Western culture, it seems we have only succeeded in making the individual feel more impotent and insecure. Not surprisingly, the more we feel diminished as individuals, the more insistently we stand up for our rights-producing, as commentators such as Robert Hughes have said of America, a nation of victims, a society pervaded by a culture of complaint.

The evidence strongly suggests that, robbed of a broader meaning to our lives, we have entered an era of often pathological self-preoccupation: with our looks, careers, sex lives, personal development, health and fitness, our children, and so on. Alternatively, the desperate search for meaning and belonging ends in the total subjugation of the self-in, for example, fanatical nationalism and religious fundamentalism. The suicidal deaths earlier this year of more than 80 followers of the Branch Davidian cult in the siege of its Waco, Texas, compound-like the Jonestown massacre in Guyana in 1978- have provided sad evidence of this social sickness.

The harm that modern Western culture is doing to our psychic wellbeing provides reason enough to forge a new system of values and beliefs. However, the need is made even more critical by the relationship between modern Western culture and the many other serious problems that Western societies face: the seemingly intractable economic difficulties, the widening social gulf, the worsening

environmental degradation.

Fundamentally, these are problems of culture, of beliefs, and of moral priorities, not of economics .. Furthermore, addressing these problems will require good management; good management requires clarity and strength of purpose and direction. How can we know what to do if we don't know what we believe in and where we want to go?

The Sources of Cultural Decay

There is a range of possible sources of the cultural decay of the West, all linked to the domination of our way of life by science.

The first source is the way science has changed the way we see ourselves and our place in the world through its objective, rational, analytical, quantitative, reductionist focus. Science, its critics say, has caused the crisis of meaning in Western culture by separating fact from value and destroying the "magic" and "enchantment" that gave a spiritual texture to our lives.

A second is the accelerating rate and nature of the changes driven by the growth in science and technology since World War II. These changes have torn us from our past and from the cultural heritage that provided the moral framework to our lives. Science undermined our faith in "God, King, and Country" by replacing it with faith in "progress": the belief that the life of each individual would always continue to get better-s-wealthier, healthier, safer, more comfortable, more exciting.

A third source, then, is the collapse of this belief as the limits and costs of progress become ever more apparent: Economic, social, and environmental problems pile up around us; expectations are raised, but remain unmet. We are now failing even by the standard measure of progress:

For the first time in many generations, today's youth cannot assume that their material standard of living will be higher than their parents' .

A fourth source of our cultural malaise is one specific set of products of our scientific and technological virtuosity-the mass media. The media have become the most-powerful determinants of our culture, yet

THE FUTURIST November-December 1993 11

we make little attempt to control or direct the media in our best longterm interests. Indeed, the style of public culture dictated by the popular media virtually guarantees that we will fail to address effectively the many serious problems we have.

For all their value and power as instruments of mass education and entertainment, the media:

• Fail to project a coherent and internally consistent world view.

• Divide rather than unite us, fashioning public debate into a battle waged between extremes-a delineation of conflict rather than a search for consensus.

• Heighten our anxieties and intimidate us by depicting the world outside our personal experience as one of turmoil, exploitation, and violence.

• Debase our values and fuel our dissatisfaction by promoting a superficial, materialistic, self-centered, and sell-indulgent lifestyle-a way of life that is beyond the reach of a growing number of citizens.

• Erode our sense of self-worth and promote a sense of inadequacy by constantly confronting us with images of lives more powerful, more beautiful, more successful, more exciting.

Science and technology may not be the sale source of the cultural flaws that mar Western civilization. But they have certainly magnified cultural weaknesses to the point where they now threaten our culture-just as, for example, the October 1987 stock-market crash was caused, in the words of one analyst, by "the emotions that drive a trader, magnified a millionfold by the technology at his disposal,"

Creating a More

Harmonious Society

If those who see science as intrinsically hostile to human psychic wellbeing are right, then we could be in for the mother of upheavals as Western civilization falls apart. But I believe that the problem rests more with our immaturity in using a cultural tool as powerful as science, and I remain hopeful that, with growing experience and wisdom, we can create a more benign and complete culture, and so a more equitable and harmonious society.

Aldous Huxley once said that if he

12 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

had rewritten Brave New Worldwith its vision of a scientifically controlled society in which babies were grown in bottles, free will was abolished by methodical conditioning, and regular doses of chemically induced happiness made servitude tolerable-he would have included a sane alternative, a society in which "science and technology would be used as though, like the Sabbath, they had been made for man, not (as at present and still more so in the Brave New World) as though man were to be adapted and enslaved to them."

Paradoxically, given its role in creating the situation we are in, science can, I believe, provide the impetus for the changes that are required, both through the knowledge it is providing about the human predicament and also, perhaps, through its increasing compatibility with spiritual beliefs.

Having inspired the overemphasis on the individual and the material, science is now leading us back to a world view that pays closer attention to the communal and the spiritual by revealing the extent of our interrelationship and interdependence with the world around us. This is evident in the "spiritual" dimensions of Cl1T~ rent cosmology, with its suggestion that the emergence of consciousness or mind is written into the laws of nature; in the primary role science has played-through its discovery and elucidation of global warming, ozone depletion, and other global environmental problems-in the

"greening" of public consciousness and political agendas in recent years; and in the part that scientists (such as David Suzuki and David Maybury-Lewis) are playing in validating to Westerners the holistic and spiritually rich world view of indigenous peoples.

But science, in effecting change, must itself be changed. While remaining intellectually rigorous, science must become intellectually less arrogant, culturally better integrated, and politically more influential. Science must become more tolerant of other views of reality, other ways of seeing the world. It must become more involved in the processes of public culture. And it must contribute more to setting political agendas.

Arguably, only science is powerful enough to persuade us to redirect its power-to convince us of the seriousness of OUI situation, to strengthen our resolve to do something about it, and to guide what we do. Science can be the main (but by no means the only) source of knowledge and understanding that we need to remake our culture.

So I am not pessimistic about our prospects, despite the grim trends. Nor do I underestimate the immensity of the challenge. I sometimes do feel, in contemplating what is happening, that we are in the grip of powerful historical currents whose origins go back centuries, perhaps millennia, and against which individuals and even governments can only struggle punily,

Yet, it is also true that people, collectively and individually, can stand against those currents-and even change their course. 0

About the Author

Richard Eckersley is a setence writer, social analyst, and policy consultant. He has written several major reports for the AustraJianCom· mission for the Future on youth, the future, science, technology. and society. HiS address is 23 Goble Street. Hughes ACT 2605. Australia.

Editor's note: We'd like your views on the West's despair. See the Futurist Poll on page 49.

The latest in futurist thinking!

The volume produced for the 1993 General Assembly of the World FutU're SocIety.

Preface

Perils, Problems, and Promises,by Howard F. Oidsbury Jr.

Perils

---...

International Peace and National Boundaries: Past, Present and Future, by Dean Michael J.G. Gray"Fow

America in Decline, by Governor Richard O. Lamm

Problems

Why Should We Care About Future Generations?, by Wendell Bell

Constructing a Theology of the Environ· ment, by Roger A. Badham

"Deep Ecology" and "Fundamentalism":

Two Ways of .Religion for the 21 sl Century, by Carl Pfluger

Whose Values Will You Teach?, by Rushworth M. Kidder

Rights Past and Rights Future: Renewing the Concept of Rights in the United Stales, by Barton Kunsller

The Challenge of Human Rights for All:

What We Can Do, by Riane Eisl.er

The New Corporate Challenge, by Ian Wilson The Processionary Caterpillar: Creativi.ty and Oecision·Making,by James V.BiuMo

The Biotechnology Revolution: Who Wins and Who Loses?, by Clifton E. Anderson

Please send me copies of

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Promises

Finding' a Palh to a Positive Future, by Allen Tough

National Service: An Evolving 'Institution thai Expresses Both Governmental and Individua.1 Responsibility, by Donald Eberly

Turning the Century: Crealing.the Compas· sionate Era, by Robert Theobald

The Future of the United Nations: A Systems Approach, by Dietrich Fischer

Metaphor as an Unexplored Catalytic tanguage for Global Governance, by Anthony J.N. Judge

o.rganizing Knowledge for Use: An Individuall Qrganlza.tlonal Responsibility of the Twenty· First Century, by larry Walker

Harness Ihe Power of Technology: Develop· ing Minds in an Information Age, by Charles A. Bragg, John F. LeBaron, David 1 Nelson, Terrence F. O'Donnell

Globalnel: A Worldwide Network for Information and KnOWledge Sharing, by Brian K. Toren

Chaos Forecasting InSights, by Earl C. Joseph The Millennium Project of the United Nations University, by Jerome C. Glenn

Great Plains Scenario: Sustainable Agricul. tUfe for the 21st Century, by Alan R. Bird

Creating the Art of the Twenty·First Century:

Visualizing Future Trends In Art, by Robin TIl 0 me Ptacek

Interpersonal Compatibility and Team Cohesiveness in Space Selllements, by Stewart B. Whitney

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Rocky Mountain National Park in colorado.

ere's

All places must think more Iike businesses if they hope to win

the "place wars"-the

worldwide competition for

businesses, tourists, sports

teams, and conventions.

The Marketing of Cities)

Cities all over the world battle fiercely for the privilege of hosting the Olympic Games. When the International Olympic Committee chose Atlanta, Georgia, for the site of the 1996 Summer Games, the whole city rejoiced, because the value to Atlanta's businesses and citizens could be more than $3 billion.

Phoenix, Orlando, Denver, and Miami put their best foot forward to the National Baseball League, hoping to win one of two new franchises. The winning teams: the Colorado Rockies and the Florida Marlins.

United Airlines sparked intense competition for the site of its new maintenance facility; BMW, for its

first factory outside Germany; and General Motors, for the $5-billion manufactur-

ing plant that would produce the Saturn. The winners: Indi-

anapolis, Indiana; Spartanburg, South Carolina; and Spring Hill, Tennessee, respectively.

These contemporary examples of "smokestack chasing"-places vying for an industrial facility, government contract, high-profile big event, or sports team to boost their economies -are the most-visible battles in a global war of places that is becoming increasingly competitive.

By Philip Kotler, DOllald Haider, ami TrviHg Rei"

In the United States, the superconducting supercollider project was a big prize for warring states. The project offered thousands of construction jobs in the short term and a large number of high-tech science positions in the long term. States went all out to impress the federal government's team deciding on the final site. The winner: Texas.

Cities like Washington, Buffalo,

14 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

Place Destin ies

Every place-community, city, state, region, or nation-should ask itself why anyone wants to live, relocate, visit, invest, or start or expand a business there. What does this place have that people need or should want? From a global perspective, what competitive advantages does this place offer that others do not?

Every community can and should consider these questions if it wants to exercise control over its future. Because these questions go unasked or are not even understood, places and their leaders mostly react to and resist changes in their external environment. In contrast, others respond to place competition without analyzing the real problem. At the first sign of distress-loss of retail sales, a closed factory, a declining tax base--their search ends with a quick fix for the alleged problem, such as legalizing gambling as a way to attract people.

The record of place development over the past 20 years is replete with

Carnaval Miami IS one of the largest Hispanic celebrations in the United States; a 23- block street

party.

Palm trees are an alluring natural resource for Miaffil.

Regions, and Nations

Ger~an heritage ,es.flval in Denver's Lanmer Square.

THE FUTURIST November-December 1993 15

good intentions and countless disasters. To combat industrial job loss, places seek to lure manufacturing from one place to another. To stem downtown blight, places create pedestrian malls and beautify downtowns. To retain shrinking businesses and/or businesses in shrinking industries, they offer tax incentives to forestall further job loss. To attract tourists and promote conventions, they subsidize hotels and build convention Facilities. To foster business startups, they build a research park to commercialize new technologies and promote business incubators. To get businesses to expand foreign markets for their products, they sponsor trade shows and foreign visitation. To stem population loss, they run expensive campaigns to attract people.

Not that these actions are misguided, or that government intervention into the marketplace never works. Some projects and efforts have been successful. However, many have failed, and most fell short of meeting expectations. The footloose factory lured from another state has folded or relocated. The closed pedestrian mall is now open to motor traffic. The "build, and they will come" construction boom resulted in a glut of empty commercial office buildings and excess retail space. The new convention center now requires deeper operating subsidies. The research park is being leased as conventional office space.

Failure to plan wisely for a place's future can also have the perverse effect of too much success. Some places have attracted more jobs, more investment, and more people than they can handle. For example, Fairfax County in Virginia and DuPage County in Illinois, two of the fastest-growing urban areas in the United States, have a whole new set of largely unanticipated problems: traffic gridlock, unbridled sprawl, pollution, unaffordable housing, rising taxes, and infrastructure costs. Growth promotion gave rise to growth management and, in some cases, to antigrowth policies.

Place Predicaments

ow more than ever, places must think, plan, and act on their futures,

16 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

OlympIc sites planned for Atlanta Games.

lest they be left behind in the new era of place wars. The durable lesson of the last 20 years of places seeking to improve themselves is that all places are in trouble, or will be in the foreseeable future.

Previously self-contained local, regional, and national economies are being transformed into interdependent parts of an integrated world economy. As a result, global economic competition is combining with vast improvements in global communication, transportation, and finance to accelerate the pace, intensity, and scope of economic change, even in the smallest and mostremote places. The resulting challenges are daunting, indeed.

• Global challenge. Places no longer compete simply with the adjacentjurisdiction, a rival city, or even a bordering state, but globally with places they don't know and cultures they may not understand. Goods and services can be produced almost anywhere; much of the skilled, educated, and mobile labor

CIty of Atlanta an.d the state 01 Georgia may gain $3 billion by winning the competition to host the ~996 summer OlympiCS.

force have vast new options of where to live and work, domestically and internationally.

With nation-state boundaries giving way to trade and commerce, businesses have more and more opportunities for where to locate, expand, and diversify their operations. Capital and technology flow freely across national boundaries. Tourists, visitors, and conventioneers can now select from a worldwide menu of places to vacation or conduct meetings. Small businesses, like large ones, now export, and service producers function in worldwide markets, just as goods producers do.

• Technological challenge. Technological advances inevitably hurt some industries in a process that economist Joseph Schumpeter called "creative destruction." The invention of the automobile made horses and carriages obsolete; on the other hand, it also led to superhighways, gasoline stations, and the explosive growth of the oil industry.

a

'.

Places are now beginning to feel the full impact of the revolution in technology and communication. Fax machines, handheld computers, and teleconferencing allow companies to move to places with lower costs OT more-attractive working conditions. The old notion that Manhattan is for finance, Los Angeles is for film, and Detroit is for automobiles is no longer valid. Financial services have recently moved to New Jersey and Kansas City, film producing to Orlando and the Czech Republic, and automobile manufacturing to Tennessee and Mexico.

One major consequence of this restructuring is that a long-term recovery in financial services, for instance, no longer guarantees a healthy New York City, and a recovery of the American auto industry will not necessarily mean a healthy Detroit.

• "Bootstrap" challenge. Places have to rely increasingly on their own local resources in dealing with global competition. In the United States, for instance, dating from the early 1970s, the federal government relinquished responsibility for place development to states and localities.

Consequently, places have to generate their own resources and plans for enhancing their relative competitive position. That challenge is amplified by recent defense cuts and military base closings, where places are experiencing a crash course on how to develop new businesses while trying to adapt older firms to competitive markets for commercial products.

ManChester England, w;s o.ne of several .Cllles co.mpel· Ing to host the 2000 Olympics.

Thinking Like a Business

If every place competes with every other place, then places that want to win must think more like businesses, with specific products and specific customers for those products. Places must use the tools of businesses and recognize the global forces that affect their local industries. They must understand that they compete with other places for tourists, conventions, educated residents, factories, corporate headquarters, and startup firms.

To win the competition, places must be excellent or superior in some special way and they must think strategically. The infrastructure, industries, attractions, and people skills that they build today will affect their market position tomorrow. If they choose the wrong in-

Tennis match draws a cro.wd at the International Tennis Center in

Key Biscayne Florida. CWe; and states use people's Io.ve of Sports to. attract new reSidents

businesses' tourists, and conventioneers.

dustries, if they make the wrong bets, they are in the same position as companies that produce the wrong products: Namely, they will nosedive into obscurity.

To think like a business, places must develop and operate a planning methodology. They must not turn to planning as a result of hard times, but rather must adopt planning to avoid hard times. We call this "strategic market planning."

Strategic market planning is a proactive method for places to respond to the challenge of intensifying place competition. It can be a guiding force in helping to develop a place's future by empowering people to effectuate and better control their own destiny. As sellers of products, places can use this planning method to better understand who they are and what they can be.

• Place identity. The "who we are" begins with a place audit, a systematic examination of a place's economy, design, physical assets, quality of life, and people. Beyond simply cataloging a place's characteristics or compiling a profile, the challenge is to create a place analysis. Places need to identify their fundamental strengths and weaknesses as well as opportunities and threats.

The objective of such an exercise is to identify which of a place's characteristics represent degrees of strength and weakness in terms of what the buyers are seeking. This analysis en-

continued 011 page 20

THE FUTURIST November-December 1993 17

By Stephen E. Roulac

Perhaps no other event in contemporary society equals the impact of the Olympic Garnes on a region's economy, sense of self, and perceived role in the world community. The Olympic spotlight burns intensely on the city playing host to athletes, officials, and spectators from all continents and nearly 200 countries, gathered before 3 billion television viewers around the world.

Positive and negative aspects about a region are showcased and magnified. In 1984, Los Angeles gained great stature in the global community through its successful hosting of an Olympics where good will and financial success contrasted sharply with the strife and economic burdens of previous Olympics. Having been chosen as the host of the Centennial 1996 Summer Olympics, Atlanta needs to balance the euphoria of selection with the reality of long-term pragmatism.

The Olympics will not automatically bestow favorable publicity and economic prosperity on the chosen city. But the Games do offer places the opportunity to be recognized in the global community and become known as attractive places to live and work.

Community support in Los Angeles for the 1984 Summer Olympics was initially less than enthusiastic, but it grew rapidly just before the Games, when it was evident that the Olympics would be a financial, logistical, and artistic success. The Atlanta Games are starting with considerable local enthusiasm and pride, but as the excitement of the extraordinary accomplishment of being awarded the 1996 Games recedes, attention to maintaining enthusiasm and community support is vital. Programs must involve broadbased participation in the planning and staging of the Games.

18 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

e

ames

By hosting the Summer

Olympics in 1996, Atlanta

will have the chance to

strut its stuff in the global

"place market."

Georgia Dome, site of basketball and gymnastic competitions at the 1996 Summer Olympics. Atlanta will have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to show the world that it is more than just the setting for Gone With the Wind.

c

Atlanta 1996

Olympian Economics

The economic impacts of the Los Angeles Olympics were reported to include gross expenditures of approximately $1.4 billion, and the Games generated approximately 75,000 temporary jobs. Initial estimates of economic impacts of the 1996 Atlanta Olympics are $3.5 billion of primary and secondary expenditures in the Georgia economy and the creation of some 83,000 jobs.

The benefits of hosting the Games may not always be immediately apparent. The Olympics are a once-ina-lifetime opportunity for visibility. The visibility that Barcelona gained by hosting the 1992 Summer Games has been an important consideration in decisions involving business expansion, both within Spain and by

international companies seeking to locate in Spain. Similarly, Calgary in Alberta, Canada, was not particularly well known prior to hosting the 1988 Winter Olympics but gained extraordinary and lasting visibility that has led to its emergence as a major tourist attraction, especially for the Asian market.

The reality for Atlanta is that an event such as the Olympics raises consciousness, creates more-serious consideration, but in itself does not cause a corporate location decision that ultimately must be based on business fundamentals.

And the Olympics by themselves will not transform any region's economic base or fundamentals. However, a major event such as the Olympics can instill new confidence

l

in a region, motivating investors who previously had not considered that region as a target priority to commit capital. This phenomenon clearly is evident in Atlanta, as investors who previously would have been disinclined to consider Atlanta hotel investments are now showing new confidence in the region and actively seeking hotel investment opportunities.

The Olympics can raise global awareness of fundamental place appeal and also consciousness of place among those who reside there. But

Whatizit, the computer-generated mascot of the Atlanta Olympic Games.

awareness and consciousness do not mask underlying fundamentals of the imperative of sustained long-term economic viabiltty and social harmony, as has been vividly demonstrated by the racial tension and economic hardship that has characterized Los Angeles in recent years. An even more dramatic example of the dominance of place fundamentals over Olympic glamour is the inability of the torch of the 1984 Wmter Olympics in Sarajevo to light the way to internal harmony rather than the civic conflict and disorder that prevail there a decade later.

The pageantry of the Olympic celebration is no substitute for the fundamentals of place appeal: as a place to live and work, with an educated and motivated work force, accessible and affordable housing, effective transit systems, responsive government that does not impose undue restrictions and burdensome taxes on business, and overall quality of life.

"Winning" the Olympics

Prior to the extraordinary success of the Los Angeles Games, there

was growing consensus that being awarded the Olympics was a classic "good news/bad news" story, with the good news being the prestige and visibility afforded the host city and the bad news being the financial obligations that hosting imposes. Indeed, the fiscal track record for the Olympics prior to Los Angeles was dismal. Montreal (host of the 1976 Summer Games) reportedly lost $1 billion. Moscow (1980 Summer Games) reportedly cost some $9 billion, although how such "costs" are accounted for is certainly subject to question.

Both Moscow and Montreal incurred substantial expenditures in creating facilities, while Los Angeles largely relied on existing facilities (some of which were built for the 1932 Summer Games). The 1984 cycling road race was held on the streets of the Mission Viejo community, whereas in Moscow, sufficient land was set aside to construct a 12-kilometer road circuit specifically for the Olympic competition. Although at the time it was one of the premier cycleracing facilities in the world, the road a decade later is in disrepair, with weeds growing up through cracks. Local residents walk their dogs on it.

One of the major benefits of hosting the Olympics is as a stimulant for infrastructure construction. The Los Angeles Games provided the incentive for a major renovation of the Los Angeles International Airport. Since the airport is frequently a visitor's first exposure to the area, proper attention to ensure that the airport "works" is absolutely essential. By ensuring that the facilities are refurbished, clean, and efficient, and that proper attention is given to greeting visitors and facilitating transportation to their lodgings, the Olympic hosts enhance the prospect of visitors arriving in a good mood.

be inefficient and lack meaningful subsequent uses. Lessons may be gained from the mistakes of New Orleans and Knoxville, where, in anticipation of the one-time World's Fair demand, the top end of the hotel market was dramatically overbuilt, resulting in a substantial SUIplus of rooms that continues to overhang the market. In Atlanta, planners would be advised to concentrate on new construction of "moderate income" type housing that can ultimately be converted and used for permanent residences.

On balance, the Los Angeles Olympics turned out to be highly stimulative to the region. They instilled a sense of pride, motivated people to work together, and encouraged development of infrastructure improvements in ways that were most positive. The Olympics ultimately were a turning point for a city that was not understood. Atlanta can achieve a similar positive result by proper planning and collaborative effort.

Atlanta could be an even greater beneficiary of the visibility generated by the Olympics than was Los Angeles. Inasmuch as Atlanta is not particularly well known internationally-Atlanta's global image is still primarily shaped by its recognition as the setting for Gone with the Wind-the long-term benefits of a successful Olympics could be profound. The Centennial celebration of the modern Olympic Games offers Atlanta a singular opportunity to emerge as a major twenty-firstcentury global city. D

Enhancements for the Long Term

It must be recognized that the Olympics are a one-time demand enhancement-not an ongoing primary source of demand. The economic costs of major capita! expenditures to enhance the quality of the housing stock and recreational experience are so great that host cities cannot afford expenditures that will

About the Author

Stephen E. Roulac is managing partner of the Roulac Group, a $trategic and economic consulting firm. He

has a strong background in sports marketing and has consulted in a number of major cities, including Atlanta and Los Angeles. He is also an elite competitive cyclist and was a member of the first U.S. team invited to compete in the Soviet Union Master's Championships in Minsk in August 1990. His address is 900 Larkspur landing Circle, Suite 125, Larkspur, Califomia 94939.

THE FUTURIST N"ovember-Deccmber 1993 19

. .. ort.s especially 10f

, I the world's busle~t P 'rs. Cities and re-

Port ot ~Iaml l~ ~~: ~urists and ~orwentlO~~~~:tr~cture to support

cruise ships ca ry I and rnaintalO strong

. ns need to deve op . "tne authors say.

glo .. ct "place buyers,

efforts \0 attra .

continued from page 17

ables a place to be more realistic about its prospects. It may not be a good corporate headquarters location, a future high-tech mecca, or a heavy industry center. However, it may have good prospects as a regional service center, an advantage as a light industry processing or assembling location, and a good place for a distribution center.

• Place products. In addition to "who we are," places must identify what they have to offer buyers: products. These can include such things as public services, or recreational and cultural facilities, but a place's most-important product is its citizens. Places ultimately thrive or languish on the basis of what they do to create skilled, motivated, and satisfied citizens. Places that do nothing else but nurture an educated and trained labor force generally may have far greater competitive advantages in the new economy than places that do everything else while neglecting this critical factor.

• Place buyers. Another challenge for places undergoing strategic market planning is understanding the changing universe of place buyers: those who decide where to build a plant, locate a regional office, hold a convention, plan a vacation, invest, or buy a business. Having identified a target market and competitive niche where a community's competi-

.20 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

tive advantages can be best exploited, place sellers must understand the place-buying process, namely, who makes buying decisions, how they make decisions, and how best to reach them.

• Place selting. Efforts to sell a place often begin with designing a place's image. A place's image is the sum of beliefs, ideas, and impressions that a people have about a place. Because image is it major influence on a buyer's choice, places must be concerned. Place images Can be identified and measured and can change over time. Place marketers seek to track and influence the image held by different target audiences. To be effective, a place's image must be credible, simple, distinctive, and have appeal,

Distributing a place's image requires that places understand both the target audience (buyers) they seek to reach and the behavior they want to elicit. If the Irish Investment Board promotes Ireland as an attractive site for heavy industry and the Irish Tourist Board advertises Ireland as an unspoiled land of leprechauns and magic, the two pictures collide.

One example of a place that successfully remarketed itself by changing its "who we are," its product, and its buyers is Bradford, England.

Bradford seems at first glance a poor bet for tourists. Its staple industry, wool textiles, was on the decline

1

Bahama I

. . .. Otals greet visit

as ~rt of the island's"G ors at the airport

Smlles'tourist_· rand Bahama

awareness campaign .

High·tech workers at Dell Computers plant in Ireland. Perhaps the most-important asset that places have to offer businesses is a skilled and motlvatsd labor force, say the authors.

for decades, and it suffered from a bad image. To combat the problem, the city council allocated a grant of £100,000 for an audit to explore new tourist markets for Bradford.

Promising potential attractions were uncovered, including millshops, the home of the Bronte sisters, settings for television and films such as Wuthering Heights, an industrial heritage tour, and the National Museum of Photography, Film, and Television.

The city's marketing department decided to use these assets to re-

No leprechauns herel Ireland's Industrial Development Authority shows potential investors the Irish Financial Services Center in Dublin (shown here), leaving moreromantic aspects of the Emerald Island to the Irish Tourist Board.

invent Bradford as a weekend-getaway destination for tourists from larger surrounding cities. The reasons were that the city had excess hotel capacity in July and August, the short-break months, and that it lacked big, primary attractions, meaning Bradford would never become a destination for long-term visits.

Marketing efforts were reinforced with rehabilitation projects and new events. As a result, Bradford experienced a sharp increase in holiday

tive position. Competition for place advantages in the new world economy will only increase in scope and sophistication. A strategic market planning perspective provides places with the marketing tools and opportunities to rise to that challenge. 0

Bradford, England

Own future. The tow' ,successfUlly "reinvented" .

ideal Weekend n s planners now posit; It~elf to create its

Shown here' 8 gedttaway for tourists from la On their place as an

. ra ord's city hall. rger surrounding cities

Place Marketing In the Years Ahead

A strategic market planning approach is what successful businesses have been doing for years. It can be adapted by places to meet their own cultural, political, and organizational needs. It can be an effective means to Kotler compete in the new economy.

Places must produce products that current and prospective customers want or need. They must sell products and services internally and externally, nationally and internationally. As cond itions and customers change, products must be upgraded and refined, and new products must be designed to meet new needs. Like a business, places adapt their planning process to meet changing economic conditions and new opportunities.

The central tenet of strategic market planning for places is that, in spite of powerful external and internal forces that buffet almost all places, they have within their collective resources and people the capacity to improve their relative cornpeti-

packages. Citizens began to take pride in the town's new attention, which was also creating new clubs, wine bars, and shops. The general air of confidence in Bradford was derived from the cooperation among the city council, marketing department, travel wholesalers, merchants, and citizens.

Haider

Rein

About the Authors

Philip Kotler is a professor ot international marketing at the JL Kellogg Graduate School of Management, Northwestern Unlversity, Leverone Hall, 2001 Sheridan Road, Evanston, Illinois 60208-2001.

Donald Haider is a professor of public management, also at Northwestern's Kellogg School.

Irving Rein is a professor of communication studies at Northwestern University, 1815 Chicago Avenue, Evanston, illinois 60208-1340.

This article is adapted from their book, Matketing Places: Attracting Investment, Industry, and Toun'sm to Cities, States, and Nations (1993, The Free Press/Macmillan), which is available from the Futurist Bookstore for $35 ($31.50 for Society members), cat. no. 8-1667. To order, use the coupon on page 41.

THE FUTURIST November-December 1993 2t

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I

By]. 0rstrerm M11ller

THE COMING OF THE HNONMATER!AL" SOCIETY

Europe in the 1990s is like a ship en,. te,'rl·ng unCha. rte, d waters. There is much excite-

ment, but very little knowledge about what lies ahead. Talk of a "new world order" coexists with civil and ethnic-based conflicts. Leaders look toward a homogeneous society, yet their own peoples damar for ethnic and regional recognition. Experts in the United States and Japan worry about the economic power of a European super state.

What will the new Europe be like?

There are few examples from the past to look at, and very few old rules apply in this new game.

And yet despite everything, the Community is forging ahead.

Currency, Cr,iticism,and Revolt

During 1992, Europeans received two strong and noteworthy lessons. The first is a very simple one, exhibiting the strength of the concept of European unity. Despite strong forces that threatened to pull the Community apart-s-such as the Danish and French referendums, turbulence in the currency markets, German criticism of the Maastricht Treaty, and revolt against the treaty in the United Kingdcm-c-pclitical leaders at the Edinburgh European Council last December decided not only to stick together, but to increase the pace of the planned integration.

***

* *

* * * * ***

Rather than becoming a

United Stat.es of Europe.,

European Community

members are forging

ahead wi:th a plan. of

decentralization.

Thus, the forces holding the Community together proved to be stronger than the potential and existing forces attacking unity.

The second lesson is slightly more complicated. Ideas such as transparency and decentralization signaled that the Europeans do in fact find the Community decision-maleing procedure increasingly out of step with reality. Voters have taken the view that the time has come to rethink all or at least part of the decision-making process. They point to a missing link between voters and the politicians. Taken together, these two

lessons mark a somewhat different course for European union from what seemed likely when the Treaty of Maastricht was signed in February 1992.

Barring unpredictable events, the institutional process toward a European union will be continuous rather than discontinuous. It is not likely that we will see a grand and pompous gathering paving the way for a treaty that once and for all solves all institutional questions. We are much more likely to see a gradual and evolutionary development, where Europeans will shape some form of common attitude.

One thing we should keep in mind is that Europe will not develop into some kind of United States of Europe. Some Europeans do favor that goal, but others do not, and all indications-not the least of which is the history of Europe-are that it is not to be realized. This sort of union would do away with too many of the fundamental differences between European nations and peoples, and it is simply not in the spirit of Europe.

The days when supporters of a "federation" fought the supporters of a "confederation" belong to the past. This quasi-theological question may still raise the temper of a good many people, but it is not dominating the political agenda of Europe. There is no reason to fight over

THE FUTURIST November-December 1993 23

Ma.astricht Treaty: The Signing Ceremony in 1992. Despite initial criticism in 1992 by both Germany and Great Britain overlhe signing of the Treaty of Maastricht on European Union, leaders of the European Community are rapidly moving forward to unification.

words such as these when it is becoming increasingly clear that the political construction of Europe will not follow any of the well-known or well-defined models of the past.

Europe is not going to appear as a new kind of superpower and certainly not in the military area. The people do not want that. The days when Europeans sallied out to conquer and dominate are over. Europeans may be ready to defend what is legally theirs and what they see as in their legitimate (usually microgeographical) interest, but no more than that. Nor do they want to emulate the Americans in projecting power over a considerable part of the globe.

Spirit, Not Force

We should look for a new model of unity adapted to European needs and based upon European conditions. The lesson of history shows unequivocally that European integration has grown deep and fast when based upon economics, technology, trade, and culture. Every time military force has been brought in, the venture has failed. Napoleon and Hitler are just two examples of that particular phenomenon. Integration by military force simply does not work: It produces a reaction of

24 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

forces that break up the integration.

Economics, technology, trade, and culture, on the other hand, do produce a strong glue for European integration. They pull different nations and different people together in a loose network, one that is held together by spirit instead of force, by the will to stay together, and by a realization of shared interest and

common background.

The strongest integration in Europe appeared during the medieval period, when the church dominated the thinking of people. On the basis of a common way of thinking (culture), economics, technology, and trade followed to produce a strong integration, lacking only the political institutions to create what could be termed a loose confederation or federation.

During the medieval period, there was free circulation of goods, free passage for persons wanting to travel from one part of Europe to another, and a network among the intellectual elite, wiping away the barrier of qualification based on kingdom or principality. The members of this new intellectual elite shared access to the universities of Europe regardless of geography and political borders, and they communicated easily, either in writing or by personal appearance. Craftsmen moved from one corner of Europe to the other. People of all kinds took up positions with kings or princes without paying attention to nationality.

This is precisely the kind of Europe emerging from behind the smoke screen of almost-incomprehensible texts in today's treaties. It is a loose establishment governed by realities rather than by a supreme

British Museum. Intellectual resources give London a unique advantage as a potential regional center in the future Europe, says author M~lIer.

political body. Culture, economics, technology, and trade are very much in the driver's seat. The integration of everyday life governs the integration of political institutions, which follow obediently behind it.

We already have a hint of the economic and industrial structure of such a Europe. It will be built around a strong and viable center, supported by some regional centers. Traditional industries will not weigh heavily. Instead, Europe may well be characterized by the science and, perhaps, the art of human-resource development so vital to the two main pillars of tomorrow's economic and industrial life: information technology and bioteclmology.

Future Hot Spots

The pivot for Europe's economic and technological development is to be found in the broad band around the Rhine from Amsterdam in the north. This hub will encompass large chunks of Nordrhein-WestJalen, Rheinland-Pfalz, Bayern, BadenWurttemberg, Switzerland, Lombardy, eastern France (including Burgundy, the Rhone Valley, Cote d' Azur, and Languedoc) and Catalonia. Only some of these areas exist on the European political and economic maps of today, but they do nonetheless represent genuine regions ready to fulfill a new role, and one not so far from the role they played several hundred years ago.

This center will rival the strong centers in the United States (the northeastern megalopolis and the Los Angeles-San Diego-San Francisco triad) and in Japan (Tokyo and Osaka). New centers are also building up around Shanghai and Guangzhou-Hong Kong. Europe will only be a serious contender in the international game if there is at least one such strong center, and there are some strong candidates.

The southeastern part of England, around London, has a strong claim for the role of a supporting regional center. Financial services and intellectual production will pull this center ahead. It will never rise to challenge the real center, but its role as a regional center is firmly established for the foreseeable future.

The Iberian Peninsula is another

TOu~IST OfFl::E Of SPIIIN

Small towns such as Mojacar, Spain, may grow quickly as a predicted influx of retirees from other parts of Europe swells the population. Cheap labor and good tocation make such areas prime targets for future expansion.

likely candidate for the role of a regional center, making effective use of cheap labor, excellent geographic position, and tourism. It will also play host to a multibillion-dollar business of the future: retirement villages for people seeking to leave parts of Europe with less-enviable weather and physical environs.

A third regional center is becoming visible on the other side of the hill, if you care to look. It is the triangle of Vienna-Budapest-Prague, a nee-revival of the Habsburg Empire or the old Austria-Hungary. It would be supported by Vienna as the financial arid administrative center, Budapest as the economic center (for a strong, agriculturally dominated Hungarian economy), and Prague in the middle of industrial Bohemia. Following the changes in Hungary and the former Czechoslovakia, all the ingredients are in place.

A fourth center is being melded together in the northeastern part of

Europe, which includes Denmark, the northeastern part of Germany, northern Poland, the Baltic States, and the southern part of Sweden. Some might call it a revival of the Hanseatic League: perhaps it is, but with several differences. Most notably, this center will not be trade based, but rather based upon agriculture, food processing, light industry, energy, environmental protection, transportation, and telecommunications. More than likely, that center will be Copenhagen, the only city in that part of Europe with a claim to both Nordic and European capital-city status .. Copenhagen is also the only city carrying weight in discussion of facilities such as transportation, communications, culture, leisure, and environment.

With the unification of Germany, the political and economic liberalization process ongoing in Poland and the Baltic States, and Sweden's determination to enter the Community,

THE FUTURIST November-December 1993 25

Rosenberg Castle, new home to the Danish crown jewels, is just one of the cultural icons that may make Copenhagen, and therefore Denmark,a major center ofaclivity in Europe. Factors such as good transportation and communications, as well as leisure-related resources, all bode well for Copenhagen becoming a future hot spot.

Copenhagen will be transformed from its current European mediumsized, picturesque, capital-city status to one of the most-promising geographical positions in the European economic theater.

European business seems to be adapting well to these new circumstances-at least as well as their American and Japanese competitors.

European business seems to be thriving, or at least starting to thrive, in an era of competition where the hitherto relatively simple selection of costs has been replaced by a panoply of parameters, such as technology, total product, design, quality, service, and environment. To determine the appropriate mix of these parRmeters in a given market at a given time

26 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

is quite simply what strategy is all about. It can only be done by having access to both financial and human resources. Thus, the whole secret is simple enough, but quite difficult to carry out.

The Europeans will be in an advantageous position as this new era puts emphasis on design, service, and technology, while disengaging

itself from physical production. Sue- ...

cess is no longer a question of pro-

ducing something efficiently at low

cost, but of finding out what to pro-

duce on the basis of long-term con-

sumer preferences. A different skill

is required, compared not only with

the industrial society (based upon industrial culture and technology),

but also with the postindustrial soci-

ety, which is based upon information technology and biotechnology and is

still wrapped into the structure of

the industrial society.

Toward the Age of Ideas

We are now truly entering a new frontier, a new age that may be termed "The Nonmaterial Society." One of the implications is the struggle for supremacy with regard to values, norms, and attitudes-in short, culture. Another implication is the complete change of business life. The industrial enterprise is already dead. The diversified producer of ideas is in. To succeed, you need an input of many different, often contradictory, ideas that can be amalgamated into a single concept. To do this, you need access to many different cultures and subcultures-competition with regard to ideas.

We have not yet fully grasped the substance of "The Nonmaterial Society" because aJl of the trees cover the woods from our eyes. We no longer have shipping companies but transport companies. Society does not offer hospital beds but health care. Care for elderly people is not a question of old age but of integrated systems developed for and offered on the market ...

Corporate monoliths are breaking up, ROd decentralization inside the firm is coming into vogue. Networks of one sort or another among firms can work much better than mergers. Differing corporate cultures must be preserved and safeguarded when

several firms enter into cooperation or outright merger. Sometimes firms may even benefit by encouraging subcultures to compete, just as external competition is necessary to keep a firm in top form.

Europe's cultural mosaic puts it in a much better starting position in this race than either Japan or the United States. The challenge for the European Community is to resist the temptation to centralize power. The Soviet empire fell apart precisely because of its emphasis on centralization. Such an-error of judgment should not be repeated by Europe.

Fortunately, the Europeans seem to have learned the lesson. Contrary to many people's beliefs, the Community is not moving toward centralization, but toward decentralization. There is no doubt that the economic and monetary union will be decentralized in the same way as the Federal Reserve System and the German Bundesbank.

The European model is not so distant from the statecraft: that kept the Habsburg Empire going for centuries under extremely difficult conditions. The Habsburgs succeeded in

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welding together a state by striking the right balance between centralized and decentralized power: Every time they tried to centralize more, one or more nationalities threatened to break away. Every time the reins became too loose, the state threatened to cease existence. (Another apt, but modem, example would be Switzerland, with its multiple languages and culturss.)

Such tightrope walking is called for once again. The European construction can only succeed if a strong protection of minorities, their languages, and their religions is embodied in forthcoming treaties. D

About the Author

J. 0rslrom MecHer is the State Secretary for the Royal Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This article is excerpted from his upcoming book, The Future European Model. He can be contacted c/o John Rockiellow, Head 01 Inlernational Affairs, The Copenhagen lnstitute for Futures Studies, Pilestraede 59, DK·1112 Copenhagen K,. Oenmark.

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Current Issues: Views of American Futurist.s

A series of 1 O~minule interviews with prominent American futurists recorded atlhe World Future Society's Seventh General Assembly and Exposition, "Creating the 21 st Century.: Rights, Responsibilities, and Actions."

Hosted by: Jerome C. Glenn, coordinator. Millennium Project Feasibility Study, United Nations Uni:versity Produced by: Max Gratzl, MGA Communications

Featuring:

Theodore J. Gordon, lounder of The Futures Group, discusses the signllicanceof chaos theory and why it implies a need for humility among futurists·.

Barbara Hubbard, president of the Foundation lor Conscious Evolution, sees the human race awakening during the next 30 years "10 the fact that we are all one body." .

Graham T;r. Molitor, president of Public Policy Forecasting. talks ahout the forthcoming Encyclopedia of the Future, for which he is chairman 01 the editorial board.

Willis W. Harman, president of the Institute of Noetic Sciences. describes Iile world transformation and the move toward quasboning the traditional scientific world view.

Clement Bezold,. executive director of the Institute for Alternative Futures, reports that vision has assumed new importance in futures studies because the task is to describe a preferred future as a means 01 achieving .~ •.

Christopher J. Dede. a long-time futurist who is now a protessorat George Mason University, says that corporations are adopting many futurist ideas.

V·1717 (VHS) Currellt Issues (1993)

Regular Price: $35.00 Members Price: $29.50

Jerome C. Glenn (right)intCNiews FIJluro SUI'YCY Ed~or Micnaet Marie n at the Seventh General Assembly. The ~ho\l! video. CIJrTBfllisslJes: Views of American Futurists. includesinte Mews wilh 12 futuris:ts.

Michael Marien, editor 01 Future Survey, lalksabout how the environment has become a "key org8l1iling force' among futurists.

Oliver W. Markley,. a professor at the University of Houston at Clear Lake City, the only institution Ihatgrants degrees in futures studies. discusses the program at his university.

Joseph Coates, president of Coates & Jarratt, talks about the "enabling lechnologies'-genetics, energy, materials, and infor· mation technology-that provide a basis tor future developments.

William E. Halat, professor of management at The George Washington University, discusses his ·World2000· project, which will oHer strategic planning for the planet.

David Rejeski 01 the Environmenta! Protection Agency, describes his agency's futures·studies group and the development 01 massive networks of scientists collaborating in soMng problems.

Edward Cornish. president 01 the World Future SOCiety. talks about how the study of the future has changed from being a

hobby to a serious profession. .

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Recent Forecasts from THE FUTURIST Magazine for 1994 and Beyond

ach year, the editors of THE FUTURIST compile an Outlook report=e selection of the most-stimulating forecasts that have appeared during the previous year in their journal. These forecasts are NOT those deemed most likely to prove accurate, but rather those considered most thought-provoking. Generally, these forecasts were selected because they are plausible (based on what is known about current trends) and they are interesting in that they suggest significant or surprising changes in our world.

The items in Outlook '94 represent the views of their authors-not those of the editors or of the World Future Society. Details may be found in the issue of THE FUTURIST indicated at the end of each item. Forecasts without an author's name come from departments of the magazine, such as Tomorrow in Brief, Future Scope, Books in Brief, Future Active, or World Trends & Forecasts.

AUTOMATION AND COMPUTERS

• The next "Columbus" may be a robot. Because space environments such as Venus and Jupiter are inhospitable to humans, robots will be the preferred candidates as space pioneers.

-Jul/Aug '93, p. 5

• Powerful in-home shopping systems will stimulate sales of products that have many geographically dispersed customers, such as computer 'software. By selling

directly to these customers, bypassing local retailers, manufacturers will make more profit with products that formerly had limited Potential.

=Snider, Nov/Dec '92, p. 18

Edward Cornish Editor, THE FUTURIST

INSIDE OUTLOOK

• Computers will ultimately be implanted into the human body to improve organic functioning and simulate, increase, and enhance the capacity and capabilities of the brain. =Siephens, Nov/Dec '92, p. 42

Automation and Computers 1

Business and the Economy 2

Crime , 2

Environment and Resources 3

Food 4

Habitats " , '" .........•..... .4

Health " , 5

Society 5

Technology 6

Work and Careers 6

World Affairs " 7

• Voice-controlled hospital rooms will reduce the demands made on nurses in the future. New voicecontrolled systems will enable bedridden patients

to adjust their beds and do other things that now require help from someone else. The systems can be trained to recognize only the patient's voice so that they do not respond to words spoken by others in

ordinary conversation. -May/Jun '93, p. 6

•

• Robotic harvesters will pick crops when they're ripe by "smelling" emissions of ethylene. Vision sensors in the robots will identify round "head" crops to be picked, such as melons, lettuce, cabbage, and pumpkins. -Jul/Aug '93, p. 54

© 1993 World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda.!v.ID 20814, U.S.A. All rights reserved. Printed in U.SA

OUTLOOK "94

o Il10. DICT...,"'ONE INOUSTAlAL DESIGN GOOUP AND COUSINS _oGN

• Future telephones will be wireless and offer both dictation and videoconferencing, all in one "paper-

less" and "clutterless" unit. -Nav/Dec '92, p. 6

BUSINESS AND THE ECONOMY

• Companies dealing in pollution control and cleanup will find a large market for their services in the industrialized nations of Asia, which have neglected the environment for years. For example, levels of sulfur dioxide in Taiwan are five times those

of Los Angeles. -Weiss, Jan/Feb '93, p. 9

• Europe will be the economic powerhouse of the world during the next century. An inability to integrate foreign managers and treat them as equals, as well as trade restrictions imposed by other countries, will knock Japan from the top spot.

-Jan/Feb '93, r 12

• The throwaway economy of the United States may cause materials-scavenging businesses to grow. These "dumpster divers" and "urban miners" are already making a tidy sum by refurbishing and recycling furniture and other materials from the trash flow. -Durning, Jan(Feb '93, p. 23

• Employers may use aromas in the furore to get more work out of their employees. Already, largescale fragrancing is being applied in Japan to clean the air in office buildings, hotels, hospitals, and other environments. Studies indicate workers can

2 OUnODIC '84

perform certain tasks significantly better when specific aromas, such as peppermint, lavender, and citrus, are diffused through their environments.

-s-Green, Mar/Apr '93, p. 15

• Progress in electronics will make the 168-hour workweek common in business. Robots in factories are most cost-effective when they operate without interruption, night and day. Meanwhile, hotels, commodity trading, airlines, weather forecasting, and international banking are all moving toward

operations that never sleep. -Mar/Apr '93, p. 38

• Businesses will increasingly open their own schools at the workplace for the children of their employees under programs sponsored jointly by employers and educational institutions. Here's how it works:

A business offers the space and covers operating expenses; the local school district provides teachers, supplies, curriculums, and management. The benefits; Schools save money that otherwise would go for buildings; businesses get a program that can greatly benefit their employees. -May/Jt<r1 '93, p. 7

• Advertising will not disappear in the future. Advertising will continue to minimize the consumers' costs for information and entertainment and free

the media from control by government and special interests. Consumers are becoming more sophisticated in the Information Age and use only the advertising they need to make decisions, "zapping" through what they don't

need. -Eder, Jul/Aug '93, p. 25

• Businesses, research laboratories, artists' studios, museums, science centers, and other facilities will prepare "learning modules" that are then "plugged in" to schools' walls. Schools will be more flexible and stimulating, and learning will take place any-

where. -PesaneUi, Sep/Od '93, p. 29

• Creativity is becoming increasingly important to business managers. Because most managers learned only critical or analytical thinking in business school, many are now turning to creativity-enhancing computer software to help them see and understand the

business world in a new way. -SepfOct '93, p. 59

CRIME

• If the demand for transplantable human organs exceeds the supply, the stealing of kidneys, hearts, and other organs may become a major issue. "Organ legging" might become as widespread as bootlegging was in the 19205.

-Stephens, Nov/Dec '92, p. 40

.,

• Physical coin and paper currency will be

eliminated and replaced with an electronic bank-card system. In this "cash-free society," crimes ranging from bank

robberies to drug trafficking to income-tax evasion will cease to exist. -Warwick, Nov/Dec '92, p .. 19

• The criminal-justice system of the future will use age-control drugs to make young criminals older or deny older criminals drugs that would make them

yowlger. -S·tephens, Nov/Dec '92, p. 40

• Look for clever new ways to prevent car thefts. One remote-controlled device gives an electric shock to a thief trying to drive off in a stolen car. The device first immobilizes the car, then warns the thief to get out of the car or face a SO,ODO-volt nonlethal shock. After the thief leaves the car, a burst of thick, brightly colored smoke attracts further atten-

tion to the attempted theft. -Mar/Apr '93, p. 5

• Criminals who don't pose an immediate threat to society might be released in "walking prisons"technologies that track their movements. Current electronic devices allow parolees to be monitored. In the future, criminals could be required to wear implants that monitor their emotions and release

drugs to sedate them. -Winkler, Jul/Aug '93, p. 34

• Future guns may be less dangerous. Current firearms could be improved with computerized safety locks that read the user's fingerprints, allow-

ing only the

owner to fire.

Nonlethal weapons could also be developed, such as remote-controlled flying handcuffs,

laser rays that produce reality-distorting holographic walls, and electrified boxes that surround suspects,even if hid-

ing behind a wall. -

=Tennenbaum and Moore, Sep/Oct '93, p. 20

"

ENVIRONMEIl AND RESOURCES

• Tourists will run out of places to visit as more countries are forced to ban visitors from fragile heritage sites. The growing use of historical assets to lure tourists has attracted too many of them, increasing pollution levels and damaging the sites. Stonehenge in England and the Lascaux Caves in France have already been dosed to the public .

-Jan/Feb '93, p. 44

• There's roughly a 50% chance of a severe earthquake during the next 15 years along the New Madrid fault in the u.s. Midwest, but a survey shows states are doing little to prepare for it. The survey looked at the earthquake-hazard-reduction policies in Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee. -Mar/Apr '93, p. 8

• Methods to forestall the greenhouse effect on Earth could come from outer space. A variety of schemes are under discussion, inducting reforestation, which would provide more green plants to absorb the carbon dioxide that is building up in the atmosphere. But a more dramatic proposal is the construction of a giant parasol in space to shade the earth from the sun's radiation.

-Mautner, Mar/Apr '93, p. 33

Schematic Drawing of Screen Deployment

• Forest fires will be easier to put out in the future thanks to a turbo-charged cannon that sprays water on leaves and pine needles. The cannon vaporizes the water into a mist, which is then spread by wind, the traditional enemy of fire fighters.

-Mtly/Jun '93, p. 5

• Future flowers and vegetables may grow, bloom, and bear fruit year-round if current research proves successful. Plants apparently have genetically set thermostats that determine the best temperature for growth, but the range may be very narrow. Current research is focusing on using genetics to create aU-

weather plants. -May/Jun '93, p. 7

OunaOK '943

OUTLOOK '94

• Fuels made from soybeans and other plant products offer nations an opportunity to replace their oil imports in the twenty-first century. By increasing the production of biofuels along with the efficiency of energy use, the United States could halt its ex" pensive oil imports.

-Chum, Ooerend, and Phillips, Mny/Jun '93, p. 36

• Coral reefs are among the most-endangered ecosystems on Earth: As much as 60% of the world's reefs could be lost in the next 20 to 40 years. Like rain forests, reefs are home to a broad diversity of species, which offer medical benefits as well as food. But reefs are threatened by silt from deferested lands, pollution from crowded coastlines, and overuse by coral miners, fishers, and tourists.

-Weber, Jul/Aug '93, p. 28

• Noise pollution is impeding the intellectual development of children. In Germany, studies have shown that excessive noise from street traffic reduces children's attention spans, affecting their communication skills as well as concentration and school performance. Possible solutions: doubleglazed windows to block noise from outside traffic and reduced speed limits in heavily traffickedareas.

-Jul/Aug '93, p. 48

• Elm trees will soon make a comeback, thanks to new hybrids that resist the devastating disease that deprived much of North America of their majestic shade. The hybrids have been found to resist Dutch elm disease as well as Dutch elm fungus, elm leaf beetles, and elm yellows disease, and they can also

survive harsh winters. -Sep/Oct '93, p. 6

FOOD

• Fake foods that are healthier than the "teal" thing will find their way to more dinner tables and lunch boxes. Already popular is Faux-nut TM, a doughnut that is baked rather than deep fried and sweetened with fruit juice rather than sugar. "Faux" foods offer consumers a way to improve their nutrition without changing their eating habits.

-Milr/Apr '93, p. 6

• More food will be grown in cities instead of on farms. "Edible landscaping" may become increasingly popular among urban dwellers. The goal is for gardeners to produce high-quality food Iocally-even on their own moftops-giving cities greater independence and security.

-Roley, Mar/Apr '93, p. 18

• Cuisine will be more cosmopolitan in the future. Already, the pizza, a native of Italy, is turning up around the world along with cola drinks, developed

4 ounoaK'94

in the United States. As cooks of many nationalities reinterpret culinary favorites, the world will develop a cosmopolitan cuisine based on the ideas, tastes, and products of many cultures.

-Mily/Jun '93, p. 52

• Many plants and animals from the tropics may become popular foods in the future. One possibility is the giant Amazon river turtle, an excellent SOUIi:e of protein that is already consumed by people in its region. Turtle herding could become a profitable alternative to raising chickens and cattle.

-Mtly/Jun '93, p. 58

HABITATS

• In the future, you may have a house that can grow as yoW" family grows-and then shrink as the children leave home. Such a flexible house has been designed by architects at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in Troy, New York. The house is also affordable, easy to repair, and adaptable to virtually any site. -Milr/Apr '93, p. 6

• Homes of the future may have calming sensory enclosures, complete with relaxing and refreshing fragrances, computer-driven interior designs, and paintings with built-in sound, light, and scent systems. Residents will be able to program odors, sounds, and tactile devices to recreate nature or otherwise pleasure the sense. -Green, MI1r/Apr '93, p.lS

• Buildings will be so big that each can house a city in itself. One city-sized building proposed by designers in Japan could accommodate up to

700,000 people. -Conway, May/Jun '93, p. 30

, t

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, I

• Low-cost houses will be built layer by layer using computer-prototyping techniques. A computer creates an image of the proposed part, then guides a laser beam over a vat of light-sensitive resin, building up the prototype. To build a house, robots would deposit thin layers of various materials according to the computer's script, while wiring and plumbing is installed as the

house rises. -Sep/Oct '93, p. 8

HWTH

• Fragrances will be used in the future to relax people undergoing surgical operations. A study at New York's SloanKettering Cancer Center found that fragrance reduced anxiety by 63% among patients undergoing magnetic-resonance imaging (MRI), a widely used medical procedure.

-Green, Mar/Apr '93, p. 14

• Health dubs and other fitnessrelated industries will enjoy a brisk business. Fifty-two percent of Americans believe they are too fat.

-Nov/Dec '92, v 44

• The number of Californians who are medically uninsured will increase more than 40% by the year 2000 from 6 million to 8.5 million. At least 2.4 million of these uninsured will be children.

-Jan/Feb '93, p. 37

• In the next 40 years, doctors will be able to look inside of cells and detect abnormalities at the molecular level even be-

fore symptoms occur. Prevention of disease will become the most important part of medicine.

--~Jan/Feb '93, p. 41

• Contact lenses and eyeglasses may become obsolete by around 1997, when cornea-shaping via an ultraviolet excimer laser will be able to correct poor eyesight. -Jan/Feb '93, p .. 41

• Baldness will become reversible by around the year 2001. Drugs will be developed that block enzymes converting normal testosterone into the derivative DHT, which causes hair follicles to shrink, Bonus benefit: The drug will also prevent enlarging of the prostate gland. -Jan/Feb '93, p. 41

• Pigs, cows, and goats may soon become living drug factories. Researchers already have successfully transferred into female pigs a gene that causes

--

!'HOT,", "ONELI. CHEMICAL SENSES CEm-e~

them to produce large amounts of protein in their milk. Now scientists plan to insert genes for other economically and medically important compounds into a variety of milk-producing animals. In the fu-

ture, a single goat may produce enough blooddotting factors to treat all the world's

hemophiliacs. ~Mtlr/Apr '93, p. 5

• Millions more people will be infected with the AIDS virus in the next few years .. Scientists estimate that, by the year 2000, perhaps

as many as 110 million people will have been infected-many times the current

number. Mtly/lun '93, p. 56

• World population will not decline

as a result of the HIV / AIDS pandemic. The effects of AIDS on population size will be offset by profound health and demographic changes in developing countries, such as fewer infections and parasitic diseases and increased life-

spans. -luI/Aug '93, p. 6

• Migraine headaches, substance abuse, strokes, depression, and memory loss are among the brain disorders for which researchers

will likely find effective new treatments by the year 2000.

Among the most-likely breakthroughs is the identification of defective genes that cause Alzheimer's disease. -Sep/Oct '93, p. 56

Soclm

• The war of the sexes is getting hotter. Women in the United States are becoming more negative about men; Only 51 % believed most men were kind, genHe, and thoughtful in 1990, compared with 67% in

1970. -Nov/Dec '92, p. 44

• Japanese workers are on the decline. National planners are worried about the work ethic of the next generation of workers as they pick up more Western influences, such as heavy metal music and the spendthrift habits of teenagers.

-Weiss, Jan/Feb '93, p. 12

• Blended families, or those made up of stepparents and stepchildren, are the wave of the future:

Nearly one in three Americans is now a member of a blended family. Issues such as the right of a new stepparent to discipline a stepchild or whether

OUTLOOK '94 5

OUTLOOK '94

USAMA11-1IAS

• Japanese researchers have set their sights on improving the environment, computers, and human health. The scientists' five most-important R&D goals and the year they are expected to be achieved are: eliminating air pollutants (2003); developing a 10-teraflop computer (2004); discovering the major development mechanism of cancer (2010); commercializing methods of preventing cancer spread (2007); and diffusing global-scale environmentalpreservation technologies (2011). -Sep/Oct '93, p. 8

people are responsible for caring for a former spouse's aging relatives will come up more and more in the years ahead.

-Jan/Feb '93,p.45

• The United States is increasingl y becoming a "daddyless society." In 87% of current singleparent families, the parent is the mother.

-Nov/Dec '92, p. 55

• By 2050, almost half of the total U.S. population will be Spanishspeaking, Twenty-seven million Latinos now reside in the United States, making up about 10% of the total population.

--Jan/Feb '93,p.48

• New inventions and technologies to look forward to include: full-color 3-D IMAX movies, edible cotton, remote-controlled pianos, anti-snoring pillows, and bulletproof computers.

-Sep/Oct '93, p. 44

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• Future bombs and mines might be made to selfdestruct after a certain length of time so that they will no longer hurt people after wars are over. For example, sea mines left floating in shipping lanes cause economic damage; if they were made with plugs that eventually rot away, the mines would sink harmlessly to the bottom of the sea.

-Thompson, Sep/Oct '93, p.25

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• Europeans may vanish in the coming years due to their low fertility levels. European populations are already getting older, and population has declined in Denmark, Germany, and Hungary, according to a study of low-birthrate populations. Population decline raises fears of labor shortages, wage inflation, weakened national defenses, and the disappearance of European culture.

-Mar/Apr '93, p. 56

• Future cars may be able to drive themselves. Infrared cameras and computers will sense when a driver isn't paying attention and then set off an alarm if the car goes off the side of the road or crosses over a lane line. Ultimately, computers will automatically adjust the steering and braking. -Feingold, Sep/Oct '93, p. 57

TECHNOLOGY

• A desktop atom smasher is now on the horizon. The Argonne National Laboratory and a California firm are designing a device to accelerate a continuous beam from any atomic element. The proposed superconducting linear accelerator wil1 be small enough to fit on a tabletop and will be used to treat brain tumors and speed up the search for explosives at airports.

--~ay/Jun'93,p.5

WORK AND CAREERS

• Workers with many different abilities will have an improved chance of finding employment in the future. TIle recent recession has taught many companies that small numbers of versatile workers can get jobs done as well or better than larger conventional work forces. With corporate downsizing, a worker may be assigned to two or more different types of jobs, so a versatile worker has an edge.

-Mar/Apr '93, p. 8

• Future military weapons won't need gunpowder. New "hypervelocity" launching systems such as rail guns, hypercannons, and ram accelerators are more accurate than gunpowder-based weapons. These will allow fighter aircraft to fly higher-out of the range of ground-based antiaircraft weapons.

-Jul/Aug '93, p. 55

G aUILBDK '94

t

• College graduates will have a tougher time entering the work force in the 1990s and early 20005. There will be fewer average annual openings in jobs requiring a degree during the 1990-2005 period than during 1984-1990, according to the u.s. Department

of Labor. -Mar/Apr '93, p. 58

• Just-in-time hiring may become routine for many companies in the future. The recent recession has created a large pool of experienced workers who can go to work on short notice without a training

period. -MrnJ/Jun '93, p. 5

• Working wives who outearn their husbands will increase. The percentage of women in dual-income marriages who bring in larger paychecks than their mates is now larger than ever before, rising from 16% in 1981 to 2] % a decade later. -Sep/Oct '93, p. 5

• The chances that you'll be fired from your job have grown from one-in-foul to one-in-three in the last five years. The good news is that there is less shame involved in being laid off, because the recent recession forced many companies to let go workers regardless of their competence. -SepJOct '93, p. 5

• Computer monitoring of workers will become more sophisticated, hut not necessarily threatening to the workers. A computer that counts keystrokes and identifies errors might

suggest that the worker take a short breather-rather than snitching to the boss. Other monitors could act as prompters, reminding clerks of special deals to offer customers, or as coaches, facilitating team work.

-DeTienne, Sep/Od '93, p. 33

WO,RlD AFFAIRS

• "Green Helmets" -an international force of en vironmental protectors-will combat environmental accidents and resolve conflicts between countries concerning pollution. They would most likely be a

branch of the United Nations. -Nov/Dec '92, p. 5

• Engineers hope to build super projects around the world in the coming years. Projects under discussion include a bridge or tunnel at Gibraltar to connect Europe to Africa: a bridge across the Gulf of Aqaba to link Egypt and Saudi Arabia; and a bridge, tunnel, and/or causeway to link Asia and North America across the Bering Sea.

-Conway, Mar/Apr '93, p. 26

• All of Europe's major cities will be linked by high-speed rail. The success of high-speed trains in France and the "bullet train" of Japan has inspired the Community of European Railroads to plan a 30,OOO-mile network, to be completed by 2015. Each nation would be responsible for building its own links in the network. -Conway, Mat/Apr '93, p. 28

• Nations will increasingly behave like businesses by forging boundary-crossing alliances with "competitors." Rather than a world dominated by one or more superpowers, networks of nations will emerge in which individual members cooperate but retain their sovereignty. Present examples include the Assatiation of the Eastern Alps, the Celtic Are, the European Port Cities Network, and the Working Communities of the Pyrenees.

-Upmzck and Stampe, Jul/Aug '93, p. 11

• Immigration will pump the U.S. population to 383 million by 2050, and population will continue growing well beyond that time. The United States has the fastest-growing population in the industrialized world. -Sep/Oct '93, p. 5

• Computer modeling of conflicts could help diplomats resolve problems peacefully. For example, a computer model of ethnic conflict in Russia incorporates psychological factors such as the level of antipathy between the opposing parties and their

ODnotlK'S4 7

OUTLOOK '94

past aggressions. The computer's causal model ex~ plains the dynamics of ethnic tension and predicts possible outcomes of proposed solutions.

-Sep/Oct '93, p. 50

• The 10 most-likely wars in. the next five years

are: (1) a sixth Arab-Israel war; (2) a fourth India-Pakistan war; (3) civil war in Russia; (4) a second war for Africa; (5) a third Persian Gulf war;

(6) a second Korean War; (7) the Sandinista war;

(8) war for Transylvania; (9) an Egyptian war with Libya and Sudan; (0) a Sino-Russian conflict. Other hot spots where wars could emerge in the next century include the Panama Canal, Berlin, Antarctica, the Falkland Islands, Western Sahara, Hong Kong, and the Tyrol region in the Alps. -Jill/Aug '93, p. 40

• Future wars are most likely to emerge from four basic causes: regional ethnic conflicts, "arms and engineers for hire," regional pariah regimes, and focused economic grievances, One of the biggest threats to peace is the non-acceptance of the nationstate by the world's 4,000 ethnic minorities,

-Sep/Oct '93, p, 55

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BOOK REVIEW

The Coming Global Superorganism

Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines

into a Global Superorganism

by Gregory Stock. Simon & Schuster. 1993. 365 pages. Available from the Futurist Bookstore for $24 ($21.95 for Society members). cat. no. B-1714. To order, use the coupon on page 41.

spreading rapidly into the rural regions of the third world that are as yet peripheral to it.

In other words, Metaman is Stock's proposed new name for what we customarily refer to as "civilization."

Stock discusses Metaman, or civilization, in a series of erudite, perceptive, copiously annotated yet quite readable essays. He makes a fascinating guide as he looks at everything from slavery in medieval Europe to global warming. During these tours through different aspects of civilization, he intersperses choice nuggets of fact with insightful commentary. His background in biology and interest in technology give his writing its distinctive biotech flavor.

Disappointingly, Stock fails to fulfill the promise implied by the book's title and introductory passages. He has led us to hope for the revelation of a central concept of great originality and power that would transmute our thinking. Alas, it fails to appear. Metaman seems to be little more than a new name for

By Edward Cornish

A biophysicist argues that future humans will become part biological, part mechanical, and part electronic as Man evolves into Metaman.

Gregory Stock is a modem Renaissance Man. Besides earning a doctorate in biophysics from Johns Hopkins and an MBA from the Harvard Business School, he has studied bioethics at Princeton, published papers on developmental biology and lasers, designed computer software for electronic banking networks, and run for the U.S. Congress.

With such protean talents at his disposal, it's no surprise that Stock has produced a book that could accurately be titled "The Past, Present, and Future of the Human Race"-a formidable subject that has attracted other ambitious authors (including the youthful H.G. Wells). Such a subject seems likely to lead to embarrassing results, but Stock manages to pull off the feat with panache.

He begins by coining the term Metaman, by which he means the "superorganism" that is now forming au t of humans and their creations. Metaman includes not only humans, but "the crops, livestock, machines, buildings, communications transmissions, and other nonhuman elements and structures that are part of the human enterprise." However, the term does not include everything or even everybody:

Metaman is that part of humanity, its creations, and its activities that is interdependent-ejoined together by trade, communications, and travel. At the moment, the superorganism is primarily the world's industrialized countries and the urban areas in developing lands, but it is growing and

civilization, and a new name alone does not constitute an epiphany.

Though Stock fails to capture heavenly fire, he has produced a useful overview of civilization from a biological perspective. He has proved a trustworthy guide on a wide-ranging exploration of what our race has accomplished, and, more important for futurists, he has offered many intriguing anticipations of things to come, notably in the biotech area, where he has special expertise.

Humans, Stock tells us, will one day become "composite beings"part biological, part mechanical, part electronic-as they continue to incorporate into their bodies nonhuman elements. So transformed, people may be able to directly stimulate their brains in order to calm themselves, concentrate their attention, or feel pleasure. These future brains, incidentally, are likely to be so powerful, thanks to molecular genetics, that their owners will view today's greatest geniuses as no more than simpletons.

The rest of the human body will also change, with startling results. "There will likely be not one, but many "human' forms in our future," Stock says. "As humans become more engineered, why would we not begin to manifest the same level of diversity seen in clothes, cars, and other designed objects? ... By the standards of the future, a multiethnic society like the United States will seem extremely homogeneous."

Such thoughts might disturb more conservative-minded people, but Stock bubbles with optimism:

There can be little question that the middle of the next millennium will reveal a Metaman, not battered and tenuously clinging to life as commonly portrayed in our twentieth-century post-apocalyptic films, but rather healthy and growing, with human society thriving and the weighty problems of the year 2000 long since solved.

He concedes that social turmoil, uncertainty, and poverty will not disappear in the decades immediately ahead, but "humanity's trajectory is

THE FUTURIST November-December 1993 37

800kReview

nating reading that will bring optimists down to earth, lur€ pessimists out of the dark, and treat both to a stimulating intellectual exercise,

toward a rich and vital future."

Hope for the future is normal and constructive, but the extraordinary confidence with which Stock speaks about the splendor of the twentysixth century seems curious, As a scientist, he was presumably trained to be skeptical about theories developed in the absence of relevant and verifiable data, And why has he parted company from his fellow biologists, who typically emanate gloom since, beneath the objective veneer of science, most are nature lovers compelled to watch the mass destruction of the animals and plants that they love?

Perhaps Stock has fallen victim to the millennial fever now gathering force as the year 2000 approaches. Or perhaps optimistic self-confidence is normal in a Renaissance Man. Leonardo certainly did not lack that trait, as witness his famous letter describing his talents to the tyrant of Milan, With a little encouragement, Stock might turn to painting pictures; with more, they would be of the twenty-sixth century. D

Aboul. the Reviewer

Edward Cornish is president of the World Future Society and editor of THE FUTURIST.

SOOKS IN BRI.EF

_ Rethinking "Progress"

Progress: Critical Thinking abouf Historical Change by Raymond Duncan Gastll. Praeger Publishers/Greenwood Publishing Group. 1993,212 pages. Available from the FuturiSI Bookstore for $45 ($40,95 for Soci.ely members), cat. no, B-1706, To order, use Ihe coupon on page 41.

Nothing has become clearer to futurists in recent years than that change is accelerating and it isn't always beneficial, But rather than stopping all change in the interest of stopping bad change, we need to refine our concept of "progress" on a more normative basis, says Raymond Duncan GastH, an independent consultant who has written widely on political and civil liberties.

Gastil defines progress as "whatever actually or potentially improves our quality of life according to specified sets of values." The challenge then becomes to create standards by which to analyze problems created by ongoing and accelerating changes in technology, socioeconomic structures, cultural values, and so on,

One problem in discussing the nature of progress is that the discussion usually takes place in two very different intellectual worlds: in the sci-

ences and in the humanities. "Publications in science and technology generally assume progress; publications in the humanities and some social sciences often assume stasis or decline," Gastil points out. "For an architect, art historian, musicologist, or professor of English literature, it is not self-evident that the last century has been progressive .. , , . [But] most natural scientists, technologists, and businesspersons assume progress along with the air they breathe."

Gastil argues that we need to ask the technologists to consider the doubts of the humanists as they examine their views of what change is accomplishing.

Gastil's search for "progress" takes readers on a journey exploring developments in material living standards and human health, political organization and the evolution of human rights, art and literature in the age of mass communications, and moral sensibilities,

He concludes: "Many changes have been destructive rather than constructive, and there will be wrong turns in the future, Whatever its direction, we need to participate in the telling of the story."

Wise, elegantly written, and sweeping in scope, Progress is fasci-

•• Toward an E.cological World View

The Way: An Ecological World· View

by Edward Goldsmith. SharnbhaJa Publications_ 1993,442 pages. Paperback, Available from the Futurist Bookstore for $20 ($17.95 for Society members), cat. no, B·1715, To order, use the coupon on page 41.

A chapter headingin environmentalist Edward Goldsmith's The Way declares: "Progress is anti-evolutionary and is the anti-Way." The author, who has long edited the British journal The Ecolo~

gist, blames the world view of "modernism" for our inability to understand our relationship with the natural world and to accept nature as the source of our true wealth and welfare,

The Way

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"Instead," he complains, "modernism, and the paradigms of science and economics in particular; serve to rationalize economic development or 'progress'-the very behaviour that is leading to the destruction of the natural world with consequences for all to see: poverty, malnutrition and general human misery."

As an antidote to modernism and progress, Goldsmith offers liThe Way," a world view that is consistent with developing an ecologically sustainable and fulfilling way of life, The Way would lead humans to renounce modern society and its hellbent efforts to remake the world to fit human convenience, Instead, humans would learn again to live modestly, without making heavy demands on nature, and would "recreate the extended family and the vernacular community within which we have evolved,"

To the skeptical or unconverted

38 THE .FUTURIST November-December 1993

Books in Brief

reader, The Way is apt to seem dogmatic: "It is only by following it [The Way] that society can subordinate all political and economic considerations to the overriding imperative of maintaining the critical order of the cosmos." But the passion of Goldsmith's commitment and the scope of his analysis will reward committed, converted readers of The Way with an inspiring experience.

Transforming the Workplace

The Living Organization: Transforming Teams Into Workplace Communities by John Nirenberg. Pfeiffer & Companyl Business One Irwin. 1993. 277 pages. Available from the Futurist Bookstore for $30 ($26.95 for Society members). cat. no. B-1711. To order, use the coupon on page 41.

Management consultant John Nirenberg's new book, The Living Orga n iza tiD n , calls for "the transforma tion of our organizations into workplace communities with full

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gain- and pain-

sharing where the fortunes of each member of the community, employee, and investor, rise and fall with the organization's performance in the marketplace."

Nirenberg sees the need to go beyond the traditional dichotomy of labor vs, management. Instead, organizations should be viewed as holistic systems, where each person is accountable for the results of the organization. In describing the structure of the new kind of organization, he introduces the term solacracy, which combines the meanings of "sol" for the Sun, "sole" representing the individual, and "ocracy;" or form of government. "Instead of the cumulative power of each level in a supervisory pyramid rising to a pinnacle where a CEO retains ultimate control over the organization, in solacracy a network of multiple power centers exists based on task

relevance," says Nirenberg. "Solacracy is a structure that combines democratic governance including a division of powers, accountability, and personal responsibility."

Nirenberg lists the main skills that individuals will need to develop in order to function most effectively in solacratic organizations, and he even goes so far as to outline "what to do in the office on Monday morning." The idea here is to function as "organizational citizens" in this moredemocratic form of government, with more freedom as citizens in the workplace but also more responsibilities to the workplace community. Interpersonal skills needed in solacracy include meeting facilitation, dispute resolution, team building, and consensus building.

Other desired skills include personal skills, such as keeping agree-

ments, communicating authentically and honestly, honest self-assessment, and giving and receiving feedback.

Teams and self-managed groups at all levels of organizational structure are the most likely SOUTee of this fundamental reform, Nirenberg says. While this route may not make the company leaders as comfortable as if they made directives from the top down, the team approach will have much more impact throughout the organization.

The Living Organization. is an excellent source of clear ideas, real-world examples, and effective strategies that can be applied in many organizational settings. People interested in moving their organizations into "workplace communities" will find this book helpful in making giant leaps forward. 0

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The Promise and Perils of the New Biology

by Thomas F. Lee

"A superb [obin telling the story of genes-not just the science surrounding our gene future, but also the crltleallv important social and ethical implications of that future."

-w. French Anderson, M.D., Norris Cancer Hospital and Research Institute, Los Angeles

().306-44507·71286 ppJ1993/$23.95 US and Canada/$28.74 elsewhere

THE MASTER TREND

How the Baby Boom Generation is Remaking America

by Cheryl Russell

"This is the book of the century-the 21st century. Russell, One of the nation's top demographers, brings original insight into charting the future of the baby boomers .• , . Essential reading for anyone interested in where our country is going." -Landon Y. Jones, People Magazine

()'306-44509-3I348 pp.liIUl993/$24.95 US and Canada/$29.94 elsewhere

THE FUTURIST Nooember-December 1993 39

THE FUTURIST BOOKSHELF

Selections from the Futurist Bookstore

BUSINESS

NEW/

Developing the Global Organization

by Robert T. Moran, Philip R. Harris, alld William G. Stripp. Gulf Publishing. 1993. 336 p~ges.

Business success now more than ever depends on managers' international savvy. This practical guide shows humanresource managers how to create a high-performance work force for the twenty-first century.

8-1718

Regular Price: $28.95 Members Price.' $26.50

NEWI

From Anticipation to Action:

A Handbook of Strategic Prosp ec ti v e

by Michel Godet.

UNESCO Publislling.1993. 277 pages. Paperback.

This strategic manual by an internationally known futures researcher presents concepts and tools that managers can use to build relevant, consistent, and Likely scenarios. Using concrete case studies, Codet discusses "prospective" as an attitude of mind and a way of behaving that ensures control over the future; dreams do not oppose reality, he says, but rather create it.

8-1713

Regular Price: $35.00

Member's Price: $29:50 8-1720

Regular Price: $28.95 Member's Price: $26.50

NEWI REVIEWED ON PAGE 391 The Living Organization:

Transforming Teams into Workplace Communities by John Nirenberg. Pfeiffer/Business Om Irwin. 1993.280 pages.

Managersare increasingly turning to teams as a new way of organizing business, creating powerful new workplace communities. This guide lays out a blueprint for the transformation of your organization, providing dear ad vice for creating a more productive and satisfied work force. Comment: "1 found The Living Organization provocative, even courageous and visionary." -Amitai Erzioni,

8- r/11 Regular Price: $30.00

Member's Price: $26.95

NEWi

Transcultural Leadership:

Empowering the Diverse Work Force

by George F. Simons, Carmen Vazquez, and Philip R. Harris, Gulf Publishing. 1993. 260 pages.

Diversity is a key concept driving businesses around the world. This practical manual shows supervisors, managers, and CEOs how to profit from their employees' diversity, develop all the human potential

at their disposal, and str-engthen the organization's human resources.

ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES

NEWI REViEWED ON PAGE 381 The Way: An Ecological World-View

by Edward Goldsmith. Shambhala Publications. 1993. 442 pages Paperback.

The founder and co-editor of The Ecologist provides a lucid, compelling overview of two decades of trends that lead to one conclusion: that "modem humanity is rapidly destroying the natural world 011 which it depends for its survival." He calls for a new world view, "The Way," which subordinates politica1and economic paradigms to an overriding concern for maintaining "the critical order of the cosmos."

Regular Price: $20.00 Member's Price: $17.95

FUTURES RESEARCH

REVIEWED ON PAGE 38/ Progress: Critical Thlnklng about Historical Change by RJlymond Duncm! Gastil. Praeger.1993. 212 pages.

Is "progress" always beneficial? Political scholar Gasril develops a framework for analyzing cultural change across a wide variety of fields, including art and literature, violence, political Ofganizations, and the significanoe of human life. By setting standards for evaluating progress and examining the negative side effects of change, we can set a course for future desirable pmgress.

8-1708

Regular Price: $45.00 Member's Price.' $40.95

Note to Nonmembers

Membership in the World Future Society would save you $41.60 on the new books and best sellers listed here----that's more than the cost of a full year's membership ..

HABITATS

SEE ARTICLE ON PAGE 141 Marketing Places: Building a Future for Cities, States, and Nations

by Philip Kotler, Donald Haider, tmd Irving Rein. The Free Press/Macmillan. 1993,320 pages.

Cities are going bankrupt, states are running large deficits, and nations are stuck with high debt loads and stagnation. Many places are in crisis, but there is hope for economic renewal through strategic marketing techniques. This systematic analysis shows that the key to economic development lies not in ba Itling for prizes such as sports franchises or Japanese factories, but in rebuilding infrastructure, crea ting a skilled labor force, and strengthening pu blic-pri v ate partnershi ps.

8·1667

Regular Price: $95.00 Member's Price: $31.50

PUBUCPOUCY

SEE ARTlCL.E ON PAGE 641 The Spirit of Community:

Rights, Responslbilineaand the Communitarian Agenda by Ami/ai Etzion),

Crown. 1993.323 pages,

The author of The Moml Dimension and leading proponent of the communitarian movement

40 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

calls for a reawakening of our allegiance to shared values and institutions that sustain usfamilies, schools, neighborhoods. Etzioni argues that people may have many rights, but they also have many responsibilities to the community-a basic truth that could help revitalize decaying societies.

8-1705

Regular Price: $22.00 Member's Price: $19.95

WORK

NEW!

Multicultural Management:

New Skills for Global Success by Faria Elashmawi and

Philip R. Harris.

Gulf Publishing. 1993. 238 pages.

Tomorrow's increasingly competitive world requires the talents of a diverse work force. This book, presenting viewpoints of American, Japanese, and Arab experts, offers executives, business schools, and community leaders practical strategies for succeeding in the multicultural workplace.

8-1719

Regular Price: $28.95 Member's Prica: $26.50

~SC1ENCE AND TECHNOLOG~

NEWI REVIEWED ON PAGE 371 Me!aman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a New Global Superorganism by Gregory Stock.

Simon and Schuster. 1993. 348 pages Iliustrated.

We have entered a fourth phase in the evolution of life on Earth: the merger of human beings and technology. We will see the birth of an entirely new global entity called "Metaman,' meaning "beyond man." Stock, a biochemist, describes this superorganism as a vast living extension of humans that feeds on energy and natural resources and acts through a complex "nervous system" of computers and telecommunications.

8-1714 Regular Price: $24.00

Member's Price: $21.95

NEWI

Visions of the Future: Art, Technology and Computing

in the Twenty-First Century edited by Clifford A. Picketer.

St. Martin's Press. 1993.

212 pages. nlustrated.

Computers shape the way we think, imagine, and remember. They expand our imagination, allowing us to create new art forms and to solve scientific problems never before thought possible. This volume of eclectic essays explores the computer's impacts on a wide variety of human activities, ranging from storytelling to weather prediction, from war games to golf.

B-I712 Regular Price: $29.95

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THE FUTURIST Ncoember-Decemoer 1993 41

REINVENTING THE WORLD

By Cynthia G. Wagner

A "Reinvention Revolution" enlivened the World Future Society's Seventh General Assembly, held in Washington, D.C., last June 27 through July 1.

Futurists from 35 nations joined forces in trying to make the future work by reinventing health care, corpora tions,government, educa tion, justice systems, neighborhoods, even our bodies, minds, and souls. The enthusiastic rsinventors ranged from a Russian judge to a team of student "problem solvers," from a U.S. senator to an Indian city planner.

The Assembly participants dearly had a mandate to reinvent the world:

The meeting's theme was "Creating the 21st Century: Rights, Responsibilities, and Actions," and at the opening session, Charles Henry, an associate professor of Afro-American studies, stressed the need for reinventing society. Pointing out that tedmology has driven most changes in society during the twentieth century, Henry said the TV series Star Trek suggests that little will change in society in the future.

"It is amazing that in the twentyfourth century we can beam Scottie anywhere in the universe, but we still have that hierarchical command, with an admiral on down," declared Henry, a delegate to the June 1993 United Nations Conference on Human Rights in Vienna.

The participants responded by reinventing a vast array of societal institutions. House Minority Whip Newt Gingrich, a Georgia Republican, discussed efforts to reinvent the U.S. Congress; Justice Ernest Ametistov of the Russian Constitutional Court described the reinvention of the Russian judicial system-and of Russia itself; Senator Jay Rockefeller, a West Virginia Democra t, talked about the U.S. Senate's debate on reinventing the health-care system; and Hazel Henderson, author of Paradigms in Progress, proposed reinventing the ways we measure progress and development.

All this reinventing is both essential and urgent, Assembly participants seemed to agree, because of the vast changes occurring in tech-

World Future Society's Seventh General Assembly called on futurists 10 reinvent the world lorlhetwenty-lirst century.

JEFFERSON CORNISH

Charles Henry, AfroAmerican studies professor, calls on futurists to rethink social systems.

42 THE FUTURIST N(lvember~December 1993

Participants at the World

Future Society's Seventh General Assembly were out to reinvent the world.

The 600 speakers bursting with new ideas gave futurists a taste of "creative chaos."

no logy and society. As Assembly Chairman Kenneth W. Hunter put it, "Humanity has moved into the Irontiers of the twenty-first century."

Reinventing the

International System

Reinventing the international system has taken on special urgency with the end of the Cold War. "Who leads, and how, when no nation or race or creed or 'system' is in overall charge?" asked Harlan Cleveland, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO and now president of the World Academy of Art and Science. "Remember that democracy is not a 'systern': it's simply the idea that no one person or group gets to say, with authority, what democracy is."

Cleveland said that "the dubious relevance of nuclear weapons, which used to distinguish 'superpowers' from all other nations large and small, argues for a new pattern in which there are no superpowers, only powers more or less ready to take the lead when a lead needs to be taken. Power is a multiplication table: the capacity to act times the willingness to act."

Cleveland also described this cen-

tury's "third try" at establishing world order by creating an organization that helps to "make the world safe for cultural diversity." This will require a new look at the United Nations=-what it has done right and what it has done wrong.

"Strengthening the U.N. in the 1990s means taking its Purposes and Principles very seriously but, to carry them into action, buildi.ng within the framework of the Charter

fresh institutions that reflect the probable realities of the twenty-first century. Viewed this way, the U.N. is needed more than ever," Cleveland concluded.

Former Ll.S, presidential candidate John Anderson described his vision of a reinvented United Nations, which he said "should take a stronger role, but it needs to be made a more democratic institution than it is."

Anderson argued that

"if there's going to be a truly empowered U.N. it has to be a more representative body. Certainly one of the ideas we ought to develop is a third branch of the U.N. directly elected by 'We the People of the United Nations.' We need to convince people that they too are part of this institution and process." He said that creating such a global parliament "would be an evolutionary process, but it is under discussion right now, and the ideas for it are be-

Newt Gingrich and Hazel Henderson confer on ways to make the U.S. Congress a more effectIve institution.

Ernest Ametistov of Rus-

sia's Oonstiturlonal Court describes ways in which his country is reinventing its courts-and itself.

ing developed now. It will likely come about by the end of the decade."

There is evidence that public opinion in the United States supports a reinvention of the United Nations as a more democratic institution=-one that also has the power to enforce its policies. Alan F. Kay, president of Americans Talk Issues Foundation, said his organization's surveys have found that Americans "are ready to empower the U.N. to make it a major force on the world scene with authority and responsibility in two important but limited areas: global environmental issues and certain aspects of international security." In strengthening the United Nations' power, Americans would be willing to relinquish some U.S. sovereignty in thesetwo areas.

Reinventing the Courts And Justice

Courts in the United States are increasingly turning to the study of the future to better deal with current crises and to reinvent themselves. Why? "Desperation," Judge John H. Daffron of Chesterfield, Virginia, responded simply. 'The problems COnfronting the courts are so staggering, and have been for so long, that judges and court managers finally decided they had to start shaping their own futures before they were overwhelmed by factors that had literally grown out of their control," he said.

"As a judge, you are expected to serve as a psychotherapist, a drug counselor, a marriage counselor, a child welfare counselor, a healer, and a savior when you haven't even been trained to be a judge," said Daffron. "You are charged with fixing the most complex and serious problems aHecting people's lives without having the tools to fix them .... In sum, when today looks so bad, it's only natural to try to make tomorrow look a little better."

James Dator of the Hawaii Research Center' for Futures Studies believes the judicial system's efforts at creating the future through the vision process could serve as a model for other institutions. "An adaptive and visionary court system could offer much-needed leadership for the next millennium," he said.

Reinventing justice will also re-

THE FUTURIST November-December 1993 43

quire a new perspective on the origins of crime, said Gene Stephens, professor of criminal justice at the University of South Carolina. Policing needs alternatives that are proactive and preventive systems. "Why do we say police are there to catch criminals?" he asked. "Wouldn't we prefer they prevent crime?"

The focus in most criminal-justice systems is on reducing opportunities for crime, such as improving security systems. "Instead, reduce demand," Stephens suggested .. "Why does he need to rob you? We must deal with the problems that create demand for crime .... In the justice system today, we don't attack the problems that cause crime, such as mental illness, poverty, and joblessness."

Reinventing Health Care

Health reform must begin with a vision of what we want the future to be like, said Clement Bezold, president of the Institute for Alternative Futures. The essence of a health vision-"healthy people in a healthy world" -was delineated in the Institute's project, The Belmont Vision for Health Care in America, whose members included former Ll.S, Surgeon General C Everett Koop and Amitai Etzioni, founder of the Communitarian Movement.

One problem in the movement to reform the health-care system in the United States is that it is not called what it really is-a "sick-care sys· tern." Canadian public-health consultant Trevor Hancock said this view merely recognizes that "the

s.EORGE WHIINEY

GEO:R.G~ WHITNEY

Kenneth W. Hunter, chairman of the Seventh General Assembly, reminds futurists of the urgent need to reinvent ourselves and our institutions.

C,G.WAGNER

World Game parttolpants try to "make the world work lor 100% of humanity" while acting. as citizens of various global regions. New to the World Game are players representing the media, an increasingly significant group in world affairs.

system cares for sick people and should do so-and should do it well." He described Canada's positive vision of health, which includes creating an environment conducive to health, providing essential sickcare services available to all, and learning the art of well-being.

Increasingly, we'll be thinking about such issues as "what are the health implications of non-health public policy-e.g., agriculture, environmental quality, housing," Hancock said. "We must now do healthimpact assessments just as we once did environmental-impact assessments." For example, the World Bank has a new policy that it won't fund tobacco production in its devel-

opment projects, HanGEORGEWHnNE\' cock pointed out. "We are beginning to see a synthesis of environment, economics, and health that's coming out of this new way of thinking."

Reinventing Corporate Culture

Successful corporations of the future will look and act more like sailboa ts than ba ttleships, according to Jerry Wind, Robert Holland, and Alfred P. West Jr. of the Wharton School,

Harlan Cleveland. author of Birth of a New World. believes the United Nations can be strengthened.

John Anderson, president of the World Federalist Association, predicts that a global legislature will soon be in place.

44 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

who discussed their report, Pace-Setting 21st Century Enterprises.

"Successive waves of change-including intense and fast-paced global competition, rapid technological advances and instant communication, and shifting demographic bases-threaten to capsize oncestable organizations," they wrote in the report. "To succeed in this environment, companies need to [become] . . . fast and agile. If competition in a more stable environment was won by huge battleships such as mM and General Motors, it is clear that the competitive edge in this environment goes to organizations with a sure hand on the wheel, an aerodynamic organizational architecture, and quick and finely tuned reflexes. These operations work more like sailboats than battleships."

Telecommuting will help transform corporate culture, according to Caroline J. Hull, managing director of The ConneXus Croup in Fairfax, Virginia. Currently, management anxiety is impeding the use of telecommuting in many organizations. Experts "put this down to a reluctance to embrace the dramatic changes reshaping our workplace and organizational structures," she said. "For managers schooled in traditional hands-on management techniques, supervising workers off-site is analogous to losing control and simply creates a system which facilitates

employee abuse and manipulation."

Hull believes that overcoming these attitudinal obstacles requires education and information, as well as the realization that "downsizing and restructuring are not temporary conditions these days. The work force is undergoing a fundamental reshaping as corporations implement strategies that will keep them flexible, allow them to quickly adapt to change, and enhance their competitiveness. "

Reinventing libraries

The institution of the library is already undergoing vast changes due to the Information Revolution. Information technology has greatly expanded the amount of data we can collect and retrieve, and an important question for libraries and for the Information Age in general is how we can design and develop a new knowledge base that is accessible and useful to everyone, said David Penniman, president of the Council on Library Resources.

Because public and school libraries offer knowledge to society at large, they playa major role in the information cycle and help to shape our minds about the world. He said, "We should invest more in this knowledge base. Not just for libraries, but for other electronic-based information systems as well."

But the physical library itself may change drastically, or even be eliminated, Penniman predicted. We may

GEOOGE WHITNEY

see "small, kiosk-type structures set up at easily accessible locations, much the same way we use automatic teller machines," he said.

Reinventing Knowledge

These information technologies will also reshape the way knowledge is formed, bringing us "collective intelligence" rather than just "artificial intelligence," said Parker Rossman, author of The Emerging Global Electronic University. 'The computer-

empowered 'global

scale tools' ... can bring together many minds ('collective intelligence') so that human beings can deal with problems that have hitherto been too complex," he said. This collective intelligence "can now take place among a global network of scholars to organize, classify, and analyze. It will empower not 'artificial intelligence: but the bringing together [of] many minds to do what no one can do alone."

The knowledge base will thus be built in layers, Rossman suggested. For instance, at New York City's Dalton School, students "write history term papers that become part of a

High-school students from Woodbridge, New Jersey, give an eye-opening demonstration of creative thinking and problem-solving techniques used In the Future Problem Solving Program.

database, which the next generation of students expands and builds upon."

Reinventing the Body

Technologies such as virtual reality will give us the opportunity to create entire new bodies for ourselves, according to Glenn F. Cartwright of McGill University in Montreal, "One of the remarkable things about virtual reality and cyberspace is the potential not only to shed one's body, but to gain a new and perhaps vastly different body," he said. "Certain types of game playing, acting, dancing, and simulated physical activities will require cyberbodies, perhaps different senses, strengths, skills, and abilities. Given a new body in VR, would a quadriplegic want to return to the real world? ... It is possible to explore different aspects of oneself, to examine one's identity, [including gender swapping]." It might even "be possible to assume more than one identity at the same time."

Cartwright suggested that we might even be on the verge of reinventing reality itself through virtual reality. "VR becomes a way of sensing, feeling, thinking," he said. "The computer controls sensation by controlling the input to the senses, altering in turn experience, emotion, and ultimately thought. New perceptions and ideas arise as a consequence of

continued on 48

William E. Halal (left) of The George Washington University and Willis Harman 01 the Institute of Noetic Sciences describe the work of the WORLD 2000 Project, an effort to encourage dialogue toward strategic planning for the planet.

David Penniman, president of the Council

on Library Resources, predicts that information technologies will dramatically change the shape and function of libraries.

THE FUTURIST Nooember-December 1993 45

cial and technological help is critical to protecting the humanenvironment," Dabholkar said. "This is but one aspect of the shared global responsibility. And [the] more such help comes in the form of fair trade practices, investment, transfer of technology, and partnerships in institution building, the more enabling will be its results."

HIGHLIG'HTS FROM THE SEVENTH GENERAL ASSEMBLY

SENATOR ROCKEFELLER ON HEALTH CARE

Senator Jay Rockefeller (DemocratWest Virginia), a leader in the U.S. government's efforts to reform health care, told futurists that there are powerful obstacles to the reform movement. One major problem is the lack of expertise among government leaders responsible for creating and judging health-care legislation. "Of the over 500 people in Congress, only about 30 understand health care in depth. Health-care policy makes arms -co n tro I policy look easy," he said.

Rockefeller also pointed out that polls show people are losing in-

terest in health care, but this may simply be a reflection of a lack of coverage of health care on television.

He correctly predicted, "As soon as the health-care bill is introduced, interest will rev up."

Jay Rockefeller describes obstacles to health-care

reform.

• • •

LESS GOVERNMENT NEEDED-NOT MORE

Too much governmental control over people's lives is weakening communities, declared David Boaz of the Cato Institute. "Government is taking away opportunities for families and communities," he told participants at the Seventh General Assembly. "It becomes a habit to say, 'Let the government take care of that.' Government has taken over people's responsibilities."

Boaz argued for restoring the power of "voluntary" communities: 'lf you try to make sure every local community does what you want it to, they remain like children. Say-

Da~ld Boaz of the Oato Institute argues lor communities to take back the responsibilities they have yielded 10 the government.

• • •

NATIONAL SERVICE. AROUND THE WORLD

Renewed interest in national service in the United States was described in the context of similar efforts around the world. Donald Eberly of the U.S. National Service Secretariat discussed programs in Nigeria, Papua New Guinea, Costa Rica, France, and Germany, among other countries.

"National service is an evolving institution that expresses both government and individual responsibility," he said. "If national service for young adults continues to prove useful as a mechanism for service delivery, as a form of experiential education, as an alternative to military service, and as a nationbuilding tool, it will be recognized as a societal institution well before the end of the twenty-first century."

• • •

STAKEHOLDERS IN CORPORATIONS

Corporations of the future need a new understanding of who the "stakeholders" of their organizations are, said Teresa Yancey Crane, president of Issue Action Publications, Inc. "Most consider a stakeholder to be one who has a stake in corporate decisions. However, the inspiration for the term was the rod driven into the ground as support for the ropes of a tent," she pointed out "A stakeholder, then, was one without whose support the organization could not stand.

46 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

ing let the government take over' is part of the problem. We could strengthen the community by limiting the power of the state."

• ••

THE RIGHT NOT TO Go HUNGRY

The right to have food may seem as basic as the right to breathe the air around us, but because food is a commodity that is bought and sold, the right to have food is especially challenging, pointed out Lynn Austin, an agricultural futurist currently working in Africa. He called on the world's "Have-Lots" to help the "Have-Nets."

"The right to food provides an opportunity for one of the greatest accomplishments of humanity, achieving something that has never been achieved: a world without hunger," Austin said. "In a 'civilized' world, it is the obligation of those who are more fortunate to furnish food to those who cannot provide it for themselves=to guarantee food security."

• • •

PARTNERSHIPS FOR THE ENVIRONMENT

The environmental problems that all of the nations of the world share will require transnational partnerships, according to Uttam Dabholkar, principal program officer for the United Nations Environment Programme's North American region.

"In the face of demographic pressures, economic stagnation, and mass poverty, external finan-

This distinction is important when we move social responsibility out of the realm of altruism and into the world of strategic management."

• • •

NEW SOURCES OF LEADERSHIP

Leadership is coming from new directions, according to former U.S. Congresswoman Claudine Schneider, director of The Artemis

BRUCE REEO'Y

Former Congresswoman C.laudine Schneider sees new sources 01 leadership emerg' ing in society.

Project. In addition to the leadership of government, we are seeing leaders emerge from the corporate and business world; from grassroots citizens' groups, who are increasingly not just demanding more rights but asking what their responsibilities are: and the media, who are "dragging the most behind," Schneider said. "The media are in fact shaping the psyche of the world, but that's a responsibility they don't admit or realize."

• • •

WHAT Is "RELIGION"?

Even those discussing the future of religion disagree on what "religion" means, according to Parker Rossman, author of The Emerging Worldwide Electronic University. Some "talk about particular religions: Judaism, Christianity, Islam, Buddhism," he said .. Other religious futurists propose "theereation of new, 'more effective and adequate religions,' such as one based on a radical feminist theology. Some prefer to distill 'values' as a way to talk about religion in a secular culture."

• • •

MEDITATION ON THE FUTURE

Futurist Barbara Marx Hubbard, author of The Revelation: Our Crisis Is a Birth, has spent the past 25 years seeking to bring spirituality into futurism. Toward that end, she Led a session at the General Assembly that offered participants an opportunity to meditate together.

"Breathe deeply," she said. "Experience within yourself that passionate seed of unique genius, of creativity that is pulsing to be fully expressed. Feel the power, the potency, the as-yet-untapped potential within yourself .... And as we experience that uniqueness within us growing, we foresee that each of us is fully engaged in the process of creation. We are co-creating a future, equal to our deepest desire and our highest capability. We are restoring our earth, we are freeing our unique genius in chosen life purpose. We are exploring and actualizing the vast unknown poten-

Barbara Marx Hubbard, center, signs copies of her new book, The Revelation, which descrlbes the emergence of conscious evolution.

tial of the human spirit as we reach outward and inward on the universal scale to become a fully human, a fully divine humanity."

• • •

NEW METAPHORS FOR. NATURE

Humanity's relationship with nature is undergoing a profound transformation, as seen by the

metaphors with which we describe nature and wilderness, said Herbert W. Schroeder, an environmental psychologist with the U.S .. Forest Service. The two predominant views of wilderness are "the metaphor of nature as machine and the metaphor of nature as person," he said.

"In terms of rights and responsibilities, looking at nature through the metaphor of person implies that we do not have the right to seek total control over nature," Schroeder said. "This does not mean abandoning all of our own interests and welfare. But it means we need to balance the interests and needs of nonhuman natur€ along with our own in everything we do."

• • •

PRIORITIES FOR HEALTH CARE

Ensuring healthier people in the future means that health-care reformers must pay more attention to preventing health problems, according to Charlotte Swift, project director of the National Commission to Prevent Infant Mortality, based in Washington, D.C.

"Our problem when it comes to morns and kids is one of focus, one of priorities," she said. "So much money has been spent on the development and application of medical technology that allows us to save or prolong the lives of infants born too soon, or too small, or both, that we have largely ignored the preventive steps that we know will assure that many of these same children will not need this expensive, high-tech care in the first place."

• • •

Editor's note: These quotations are just a few highlights of the Assembly. Future issues of THE FUTURIST will include selected texts of the presentations given.

THE FUTURIST November-December 1993 47

continued from page 45

the modified sensory input. What happens to the normal mind when it loses contact with reality? What happens when we enter an alternate reality and cannot tell the difference from the real world? What will happen if we find we cannot, or don't want to, return to reality? What will happen to us if we become lost in cyberspace?"

Reinventing the Mind

Humanity is standing on the brink of "either a quantum leap in human psychological capabilities or heading for a global nervous breakdown," according to clinical psychologist Maureen O'Hara, former president of the Association for Humanistic Psychology. Because of the dramatic changes in technology, politics, the environment, and demographics, people are experiencing an unraveling of "many of the traditional ways of life and values systems that have made it possible for thousands of years for human beings to hold their psyches together," she noted. "As we approach the new century, these transformations-most of them beyond the control of ordinary people -are putting unprecedented pressures on the human mind."

Among well-educated and affluent people, these changes may bring new opportunities for creative venhues. But for others, who are struggling for survival, "such rapid and profound change creates fear, reaction, defensiveness, and despair,"

German television crew interviews Ernst U. von Weizsacker, president 01 the WuppertaJ (Germany) Institute for Clirnate, Environment, and Energy.

BRUGE AEEOY

48 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

O'Hara said. She called for psychological-impact studies, similar to environmental- and economic-impact studies, whenever new technologies or social programs are tested.

"If we ignore the psychological dimensions of change, the outcome could be catastrophic," she warned.

BRuCEREEDv

Questions and comments are encouraged during WORLD 2000 Project supersession; a videocamera captures Ille event.

Reinventing Society

California State Assemblyman John Vasconcellos also warned of a massive psychosocial breakdown.

"We must acknowledge that government, business, and families are not functioning well, Health care, education, law and order-we are in so many ways in so much disrepair. When disintegration is that universal, it's not just a breakdown, but perhaps a breakup, breakout, or breakthrough."

Among the many revolutions that society is now undergoing is "the revolution of the emotions, of the sense of self," he said. "People have wondered anew what it means to be

John Vasconcellos, California state as· semblyman, warns of a massive psychosocial breakdown unless society undergoes cornmunity healing.

Maureen O'Hara, former president 01 the Association lor Humanistic Psychology, calls for psychological-impact assessrnents of new technologies and

social prograrns.

human." As a result, society will have to undergo a recovery program of "individual healing, with a revolution in our sense of ourselves from negative to positive." There also must be community healing. "We used to have communities of conformity. The 19905 must be a decade of building communities of diversity. [We need] to be intrigued by people who are different, rather than fearful," he said.

Vasconcellos concluded with this advice for futurists: "Become more than you are, become political, be leaders-the new kind, which inspires others to become their own leaders." D

About the Author

Cyntllia G. Wagner is rnanaging editor of THE FUTURIST.

Kevin McGuinness,. staff edltor; contributed to til is repo rt.

ASSEMBLY VIDEO Videotaped interviews witll a dozen presenters at the Assernbly were conducted by futurist Jerome C. Glenn. For information on the video, Current Issues, see pag.e 28.

I

Some futurists believe that hope is necessary to survive and prosper in the future .. But Western cultures are experiencing high levels of despair, points out social analyst Richard Eckersley in his article on page 8 of this issue. Is hope an endangered emotion?

Please check your answers to the following questions and add comments wherever you wish.

1. Do you think most people in Western nations are optimistic or pessimistic about the future?

o Optimistic 0 Pessimistic 0 Unsure Comment

2. Are you yourself optimistic or pessimistic?

o Optimistic 0 Pessimistic 0 Unsure Comment

3. Young people are reported to have an especially pessimistic view of the future, perhaps in part because newspapers and television emphasize violence, conflict, and misfortune. Should efforts be made by educators, government, or other groups to make youth less pessimistic?

DYes 0 No 0 Unsure

Comment

(Optional) Name:

4. Is Western culture failing to provide a sense of meaning, belonging, and purpose in people's lives along with a framework of values?

DYes Comment

o No

o Unsure

5. Is it true that most people in certain advanced nations like the United States "no longer know right from wrong" -that they lack standards for making moral judgments?

DYes 0 No 0 Unsure

Comment

6. Western cultures are often criticized for excessive emphasis on the rights of the individual rather than those of the larger community. Is excessive individualism really a problem?

DYes 0 No 0 Unsure

Comment

Occupation:

Address:

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ANSWERS!

We rea.lize that this Poll is not a scientific sampling. but it may suggest the outlook

of some of our readers. Please feel free to add any comments you may have on the topic.

PLEASE MAIL OR FAX THIS PAGE (BEFORE DECEMBER 14, 1993) TO:

The Futurist Poll

c/ a Managing Editor THE FUTURIST

7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450 Bethesda, Maryland 20814, U.S.A. Fax: 301/951-0394

THE FUTURIST November-December 1993 49

being. Retired research biologist Alfred J. Coulombre of Bethesda, Maryland, wrote: "More important than any of the obli.gations mentioned is our obligation to pass on a stable human population commensurate with the resources of our planet."

THE POLL RESULTS

We asked readers to rank 10 "obligations" to future .. generations in order of relative importance. Several respondents, insisting that the choices were either too difficult or too interrelated to rank, marked more than one obligation as having "number-one" importance. "Tough choices," remarked quite a few people. "Everything is important," summarized a student named Sarah.

"All are of equal importance but need to be coordinated more," agreed futurist Brian Burrows, co-author of Into the 21st Century. "This was the objective of our book. We have a limited time to change direction, TIUs will come from pressure on government from the Green Movement, NGOs [nongovernmental organizations], and charities such as OXFAM. However, these groups need 1:0 work together more." Burrows ranked every item "number one."

Obligations to the Future

Rank Obligati.0J:i (l'!~~rI.~~~re~ .

1 Pure air and water (3.7)

2 Nonviolent conflict resolution (4.5)

3 Education/training for all (4.6)

4 Plentiful food supplies (4.8)

5 Moral values (4.9)

6 Technologies for clean energy (5.4)

7 Equitable/ affordable health care (5.6)

8 Laws guaranteeing equal rights (5.9)

9 Protection of plant and animal species (6.3)

10 Debt-free national economies (6.8)

Although it ranked in the middle overall, "Moral values" received the most "number-one" votes, suggesting that those who considered it important were passionate in their belief. As one respondent explained, "Moral values will have a higher impact in addressing the next nine obligations." Jean Brunet of Manalapan, New Jersey, wrote: "U moral values are taught to our children, then many of the concerns would diminish or disappear:"

This poll did not provide an open blank for "other" suggested obligations, but several respondents commented that reducing the world's population growth rate is a critical obligation to our descendants' well-

Summary question

"Should present generations be more mindful of future generations than we are now, less mindful, or about the same?" We probably didn't have to ask. Our respondents overwhelmingly (92.3%) said that we should be more mindful; some (7.7%) said we should be about the same. No one said we should be less mindful.

Comments:.

"We must equip our children with the skills and institutions that will enable them to live in peace with 10 billion others. Having done so, then perhaps they will tackle the problems that we have either ignored or failed to see." (Gerard. O'Neill, parent, managing director of the Henley Research Centre for Futures Research, Dublin, Ireland)

"Moral values are fine, but our children look at us to see what we do--and many of them are becoming more violent and uncaring." (Peg Carter, middle-school teacher, Ann Arbor, Michigan)

"I question the 'obligation' idea; your whole premise is flawed. From a Darwinian perspective, I would say your first priority is personal survival, then rational thought mandates helping progeny." (Mike Rouzer, pilot, Sugarland, Texas)

"Sometimes we forget that if people die of starvation or disease everything else is irrelevant." (James M. Allen Jr., consultant, Louisburg, North Carolina)

"Economic freedom and the right to keep and control the result of one's labor and creativity should be first on the list!" (Robert Cox, electrical contractor-investor, Colorado Springs, Colorado)

"Until our leaders (business, social, civic, political, educational, etc.) are persons of integrity with high moral/ethical standards, most programs could be in jeopardy and funding of dubious benefit." (Harry E. Koch, retired, Annandale, Virginia)

"Stop smoking. This is the #1 health problem in the world. Alcohol, problem #2." (Thomas J. Setter; orthopedic surgeon, Idaho Falls, Idaho)

50 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

FUTURE ACTIVE

News from the Futurist Community

•• Robots Fly Autonomous!ly

Student teams competing in the third International Aerial Robotics Competition have achieved a milestone: robots that fly autonomously.

A team from Georgia Tech took first prize with a model-sized helicopter that flew in what is believed to be the first non-radio-controlled £light for a craft of this size and class. The robotic devices designed by the Navy Team #1 and the University of Texas, Arlington, team also flew autonomously.

"FQr students, it's a culmination of years of work," says Robert C. Michelson, executive vice president of the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems, the competition's sponsor. "For government, it demonstrates new technology in terms of guidance." Eleven teams from seven universities competed in the third annual event, in which students designed flying robots to find and retrieve metal disks from a bin, fly across a barrier, and deposit the disks in another bin, all without human help.

THE FUTURIST first reported on the competition earlier this year. (See "Flying Robots," Tomorrow in Brief, January-February 1993.)

For more information, contact: Georgia Institute of Technology, News Bureau, Office of Communications, Atlanta, Georgia 30332-0181, or the Association lor Unmanned' Vehicle Systems, 1101 14th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005.

• African Futures

Since the mid-1970s, Africa has faced such a multitude of crises that taking a long-term perspective on the continent's future seems almost hopeless.

"With the immediate problems in Africa-such as food and even paying civil servants-how can you speak of the future?" asks Jose Brito, regional coordinator for the United Nations Development Programme's (UNDP) African Futures Project in Abidjan, C6te dIvoire. Brito described the forward-looking project to participants at the World Future

STANL'EV LEARY, @ 1993 TELEPHOTO. GATE(.'::H RESEARCH CORP .

Robotic helicopter designed by Georgia Tech team flies autonomously=jhe first time lor a vehicle of its class.

Society's Seventh General Assembly last summer.

To help African nations begin framing their short-term crises in a longer-term perspective, UNDP approved in 1991 a five-year regional project known as African Futures. The project will support efforts to develop National Long-Term Perspective Studies (NLTPS) in member countries.

Jose Brito describes the United Nations Development Programme's African Futures project during the World Future SOCiety's recent General Assembly.

"Excessive preoccupation with short-term issues during this decade created a tendency to neglect measures essential for sustainable longterm improvements in national welfare," according to a U.N. document on the project. "The NLTPS concept is thus a response to the desire expressed by African countries to clarify their vision of their long-term development."

Among the objectives that African Futures will help its member countries achieve are enhancing the national process for discussing long-term development priorities; evaluating key factors in future socioeconomic development, such as governance, population, trade, natural resources, health, education, and security: and identifying national strategies appropriate to the realities in each country.

African Futures will also establish a continent-wide network of experts and research institutes to support the long-term perspectives process and to provide a link between national and regional perspectives, according to UNDP. Taking a unified approach will, it is hoped, "provide a better basis for achieving the long-term development goals of African countries."

For more information,contact: Jose Brito, African Futures (NLTPS), United Nations Development Programme, 01 B.P. 1747 Abidjan 01, COte d'ivoire.

THE FUTURIST November-December 1993 51

FUTURE ACTIVE

• Green Olympics

The bid by Sydney, Australia, to become the site of the Olympics in the year 2000 included a proposal that would make them the world's first "environmental games." The president of the International Olympic Committee (IOC), Juan Antonio Samaranch, expressed admiration for the environmental aspects of Sydney's bid, calling the construction plan a perfect illustration of the city's pledge to protect the environment.

The Sydney Olympics 2000 group included guidelines that addressed

OBITUARIES

Harold G. Shane

Educator and futurist Harold Gray Shane, 78, died July 12, 1993, in Bloomington, Indiana, following a heart attack.

Shane was professor emeritus and former dean of Indiana University's School of Education and author or co-author of several books on futurism in education. His most-recent book, Curriculum for a New MiI7ennium, written with Wilma S. Longstreet, focuses on the need for schools to keep pace with the sweeping changes under way in society and to prepare students to become futures thinkers. He was a frequent contributor to THE FUTURIST.

Earl D.C. Brewer

Earl David Clarence Brewer, founder of the World Network of Religious Futurists, died at the age of 79 on June 16, 1993, of complications after heart surgery.

Brewer, co-author of a new textbook entitled The Temples of Tomorrow: World Religions and the Future, was a widely respected futurist and leading figure in the growing movement to bring together futures studies and the science of religions.

environmental concerns such as global warming, ozone depletion, and biodiversity. The guidelines included:

• Use of solar power, water recycling, and public transportation in the athlete's village.

• New sporting facilities would use recyclable building materials and energy-efficient systems.

• Electronic mail and multi-use tickets would be introduced to reduce the need for paper.

In September, the IDe selected Sydney for the prestigious 2000 Summer Games, perhaps because of

Richard Kirby, executive director of the Network, commented: "We must be grateful for his extensive legacy, as well as the memory of his kindly personality, gentle humor, and marvelous open-mindedness."

Walter A. Hahn

Policy analyst and futurist Walter A. Hahn, a deputy assistant secretary of commerce in the Nixon administration, died of cancer May 30, 1993, in McLean, Virginia. He was 71.

Hahn was futurist-in-residence at The George Washington University's School of Government and Business Administration and was a frequent participant in World Future Society conferences.

A principal goal throughout his career was to encourage foresight activities in the public sector. Toward that end, he helped the U.S. Congress create the Office of Technology Assessment and the Congressional Clearinghouse on the Future. Hahn was a member of the World Future Society, the Congressional Institute for the Future, and the Club of Rome, and he was the founding president of the International Society for Technology Assessment.

these pathbreaking environmental efforts.

For more information, contact: Australian Consulate-General, Office of Public Affairs, 630 Fifth Avenue, New York, New York 10111.

• Computer Networking For Futurists

A group of World Future Society members met during the Society's Seventh General Assembly to discuss on-line computer networking.

Participants concluded that the best way to get started would be to establish a mail-list for Society members on the Internet, which is a vast matrix of interconnected network hosts.

Most university computer networks, many government and corporate networks, and an increasing number of publicly available systems are linked up via the Internet. People with access to a computer network connected to the Internet can send and receive e-mail (electronic mail) anywhere in the world. They can also subscribe to mail-lists so they can communicate with each other.

To subscribe to the WFS Internet mail-list, send e-mail with the following one-line message: Subscribe wfs-talk Your Name

The message should be addressed to: listservfspath.net

Once you have subscribed, you will automatically receive all future messages sent to the list. Subscription is free to Society members.

The coordinator of the networking project is Lisa Kimball, principal of The Meta Network in Arlington, Virginia.

"We'll use the wfs-talk list to collect information about what WFS members are doing on-line," Kimball explains. If you know about an interesting on-line discussion group, project, database, mail-list, or other resource, she asks that you send a description to: [email protected]

Members who have not yet explored the world of on-line networks and would like help getting started, or more information about options, may call Lisa Kimball at 703/243- 6622.

52 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

The World Future Society's Annual Conference

Hyatt Regency Cambridge Cambridge, Massachusetts July 24-26, 1994

Toward the New Millennium

Living, Learning, and Working

The World Future Society will hold its 1994 Annual Conference at the Hyatt Regency cambridge in cambridge, Massachusetts, on J lily 24-26, 1994. The conference's chairman is Terrence P. O'Donnell, retired professor at Salem State College in Salem, Massachusetts.

The theme of the conference is Toward the New Millennium: Lilting, Learning, and Working. The meeting will address the implications of current and future trends in SOCiety, technology, and values, the main drivers of change in the coming years for our living, learning, and working.

Conference Goals

To help people create their preferred futures by:

• Learning innovative ideas, methods, and approaches

• Investigating new technologies

• Connecting with interesting and like-minded people

• Discovering alternative twenry-tirst-cenrury possibilities.

• Gaining new insights into trends and changes

• Collaborating in new partnerships and teams

• Setting new goals and .findIng opportunities

Program Structure

The conference will be divided into four main areas: Hv· ing, learning, working, and technical/futures issues. Each of the first three will have eleven sessions devoted to it, while the fourth will have five sessions.

TOPIC AREAS:

UVING

Numerous forces are at work changing the way we live. What are the social and lifestyle implications of new technologies now .arriving?

Potential topics include:

• biotechnology and the hu-

man genome

• macro-engaieering projects

• health care and wellness

• violence in society

• community empowerment

• alternative family structures

• youth and the elderly

• conscious evolution

LEARNING

Educational reform has been tried at many levels, with mixed success. What is the philosophical change happening about learning in general, and how is this change being implemented in actual teaching styles and currie-

Many people feel that discussion groups, working groups, and injormal, networking' opportunities are even more useful than concurrent sessions in giving participants the opportunity to get to know others, share their ideas, and gain new insights ..

ula choices? What new technologies are assisting In education and learning?

Potential topics include:

• distance learning

• privatization of schools

• nontraditional and diverse students

• global teacher and student networks

• social problems in schools

• barriers to learning

WORKING

The global marketplace has arrived, the work force is becoming tncreasingly diverse, the. workplace is seeing both technological and social change in drastically faster succession than ever before, and in some cases, our whole notion of what constitutes work is in transformation. How do all these changes affect our effectiveness on the job, at play, and in our lives?

Potential topics include:

• the global business climate in the early twenty-ftrst century

• trends for business leaders and workers

• how to use your training and the awareness of trends to your advantage in the work force

• restructuring organizations

Speakers

About 100, including:

Arnold Brown, chairman, Weiner Edrich Brown, Inc., co-author, Office Biology, New York, New York

Erik Brynjolfsson, professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts

Audrey Clayton, senior evaluator, u.s. General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C.

BRUCE REEDY

Tentative Schedule Sunday, July 24, 1994

9:00 a.m.·5:oo p.m Pre-conference courses

1:00-5:00 p.m Facilitated discussions, working

groups

7:00-8:00 p.m, Cash-bar reception

8:00-10:00 p.m Opening plenary session

MondaY,July 25,1994

8: 15·10:00 a.m Concurrent Sessions 1

10:00-10:30 a.m Coffee Break

10:30 a.m.-12:oo noon Concurrent Sessions Il/Nerworklng

Activities

12:15·1:45 p.m Luncheon

2:15·3:45 p.m COncurrent Sessions m

4:00·5:30 p.m Large Session

5:30-6:30 p.m Wine & Cheese Reception

8:00·10:00 p.m Special Evening Events

Tuesday. July 26, 1994

8: 15·10:00 a.rn Concurrent Sessions IV

10:30 a.m.·12:00 noon Concurrent Sessions V/Networking

Activities

12:15·1:45 p.m Luncheon

2: 15·3:45 p.rn Concurrent Sessions VI

4:00-5:00 p.m Closing Plenary Session

5:30·10:00 p.m Special Events

Wednesday,}uly27,1994

9:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m Professional Members' Forum

12: 15·1 :30 p.m Luncheon

The chance 10 see new products in action or to 'buy books "hOI off the press" is one of the unique opportunities of World Fulure Society meetings.

Members of the World Future Society. The cost is $39, which includes a buffet luncheon and morning and afternoon breaks. Professional members, in addition to regular Society membership benefits, receive

Futures Research Quarterly and a copy of The Futures Research Directory:Individuals, and irtvitatfons [0 all protesstoaal meetings. The cost of membership is $95 per year.

For more information on Professional Membership, please contact Susan Echard at World Future Society headquarters,

Hall near the waterfront has been restored and turned into a shopper's paradise of small shops and boutiques.

The scenic Charles River, which separates Boston and Cambridge, is Lined with parks and running trails and offers sallboating and punting crews, all with spectacular views of the Boston skyline.

lindsay Collier, Creative Edge Associates, West Henrietta, New York

Frank P, Davidson, co-dlrector, Macre-engiaeering Research Gr-oup, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, editor, Macro·engineering: Glob· al Infrastructure Solutions, Concord, Massachusetts Howard F. Didsbury Jr., World Future SOCiety, Bethesda, Maryland

Patrick Farenga, president/publisher, Hoh Associates Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts

Barbara Mar.x Hubbard, president, Foundation for Conscious Evolution, author, The Revelation: Our Crisis Is a Birth, Greenbrae, California

Lauren Huddleston, principal, The Consortium, Denver, Colorado

Kenneth W. Hunter, director, Institute for International Foresight, University of Maryland, Baltimore, Maryland Rushworth Kidder, president, Institute for Global

Ethics, author, Shared Values for a Troubled World (forth· coming), Camden, Maine Michael Marien,editor, Future Survey (World Future Society), LaFayette, New York

Jerry Mintz, Alternative Bducational Resource Organization, Roslyn Heights, New York

Nathan Rutstein, professor of communications, Sprmgfield Technical Community College, Springfield, Massachusetts

Arthur Shostak, professor of sociology, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Edith Weiner, president, Weiner Bdrich Brown, Inc., co-author, Office Biology, New York, New York

Hyatt Regency Cambridge

TIle Hyatt Regency Cambridge sits along the Charles River and offers a magnificent vista of the river and of the Boston skyline. Located at 575 Memorial Drive in Cambridge, the hotel is literally across the street from one end of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's campus. The hotel's distinctive ziggurat profile makes it stand out for miles along the river.

The hotel features 469 guest rooms, a revolving restaurant 20 stories up, anda Sunday brunch well known in the Boston area. A complimentary shuttle service runs each hour to Harvard Square in Cambridge, then to downtown Boston and the Back Bay area before returning to the hotel, The shuttle'S hours of service will be extended during the WFSannual conference.

Boston/Cambridge

Boston is one of the most popular tourist destinations in North America. It contains some of the most famous landmarks of the American Revolutionary War, such as Bunker I--liIl, the Boston Tea Party, and The Old North Church.

Boston's Back Bay area is now the home of an impres-sive rwandal district with chic shops and malls and beautiful tree-lined boulevards. Fenway Park (home of the Boston Red Sox), Symphony Hall (home of the Boston Symphony), and the Boston Museum of Fine Arts are all located in this district. Historic Fan ellil

Professional Members' Forum

A Professional Members' Forum will be held on Wednesday,July 2.7, 1994, following Toward the New Millennium. The all-day meeting is open to all Professional

Toward the New Millennium: Living, Learning, and Working

July 24-26, 1994 • Hyatt Regency Cambridge • Cambridge, Massachussetts

o Yes! I want to meet, exchange ideas with, and learn from my futurist colleagues. Please reserve my place at the World Future Society's "Toward the New Millennium: Living, Learning, and Working." I understand registration includes admission to all sessions, the welcoming reception, and a list of pre-registrants. And if for any reason I am unable to attend, I may cancel and receive a fun refund lip untllJune 30, 1994.

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Refund Policy: If your plans to attend the conference change, you may receive a full refund up until June 30, 1994. There will be a $55 administrative charge for cancellations received after june 30, 1994. No refunds after July 15, 1994. Refund requests must be in writing by mail or fax.

Or call toll free: 800/989-8274 (If outside the toll-free calling area, call 301/656-8274.)

WORLD TRENDS & FORECASTS

One of the other researchers on the project, Stuart Birrell of the University of Missouri, points out that the main stumbling block is developing better senSOIS. "While some of the other components of the system are already in commercial use, most sensor technology is still in the prototype stage at best," he says.

Sudduth concurs with this assessment, cautioning that, since prescription-farming techniques require farmers to spend substantial extra time and effort to achieve results, it may still be several more years before today's testing comes to fruition.

"We'd like to get an objective look at both yields and profits," says Sudduth. "The savings aren't necessarily realized from using less fertilizer or other inputs, but from getting the most yield from what is used."

Source: "Pr'escription Farming: Fine-Tuning Agriciulturallnputs" by Linda Cooke. Agricultural Research (January 1993), Agricultural Research Service. Information Staff, Room 408,6303 I.vy Lane, Greenbe'lt, Maryland 20770-1433.

Resources

could require much more or less powerful fertilizer than the average," according to Kenneth A. Sudduth, an ARS researcher on the project.

Farmers must first collect data on this variability, says Sudduth. They need to locate where such variability occurs and then chart it. By finding out what areas ofa field need certain, more-specific amounts of fertilizers, for example, farmers can apply inputs with more precision and less harm to the environment.

Part of this analysis involves the use of electronic sensors to examine the soil. For this task, ARS researchers have developed a nearinfrared reflectance sensor, which quickly measures the amount of organic matter and moisture ina sample of soil.

"Even in fields where soils are similar, there can still be variations," says Sudduth. "Soils with more organic matter appear darker." The sensor thus Judges the richness of the soil by how dark or light it is.

Environmental worries, such as groundwater contamination by many of the substances used in modern agriculture, are making both farmers and scientists take a closer look at new methods of farming. One approach, "prescription farming," may be the answer, according to researchers from: the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) and the University of Missouri.

By gauging the need for fertilizers, herbicides, and irrigation water more precisely, researchers can cut down on the amounts used .. The main benchmark is the proper analysis of a plot's soil properties, the researchers found.

"Soils vary from point

to point within a field. Depending on the variability of soil fertility, different spots in a field

II· PreCision Farming

.

-

Soil sensors reduce the use of fertilizer for crops

.. Agrlcult.ural researchers review data on soil fertility for a test plot In Missouri. The data will help 'prescription farmers" to determine precisely which pertlons of the plot need !er~mizers and in what 'doses."

:PUFIOUE UNIV!:ASffY

"'Prescrlptlonfarming: project at Purdue University is ana of a number of such programs studying ways to apply fertilizers and pesticides in a more precise fashion. Such precision will reduoe costs lor farmers and keep chemical saturation of the soil 10 a minimum.

Health

III Good for What Ails You New medicines will offer many benefits

Relief is on the horizon for people suffering from many ailments, thanks to scientific advances that make it easier to discover new drugs. The new drugs are urgently needed to ease the suffering of millions of people at reasonable cost and without undesirable sideeffects,

One problem that could be combated with new drug treatments is irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), a condition marked by abdominal pain and swelling, as well as other intestinal difficulties.

"Patients suffering from IBS find their lifestyles severely disrupted," says Barry M. Bloom, executive vice president for research and develop-

56 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

ment at Pfizer, Inc. Most current treatments result in blurred vision and increased heart rate. Using molecular biology techniques, Pfizer scientists created a new drug known as zamifenacin, which acts only upon the affected regions.

Also showing promise is an experimental drug known as CP-88,059, which is used to treat psychotic illnesses. "The presently available antipsychotic medications can be quite effective," explains Bloom. "But their usefulness is seriously curtailed by

"FlZ£R.INC. the side effects they produce, including a partieularly severe neurological disorder called tardive dyskinesia," or slow rythmicaI, automatic movements. The new drug's effects appear favorable so far.

General release of both zarnifenacin and CP- 88,059 is slated for 1996.

Research for other treatments

include drugs for rheumatoid arthritis, congestive heart failure, cardiac dysrhythmia, and hypertension.

Drug companies are working together to fight against HIV I AIDS. According to William Steere, Pfizer's chief executive officer, "We have recently joined 14 other pharmaceutical companies in a worldwide effort to develop combination anti-viral therapies. "

Pfizer researchers say that the cost of developing most of these new drugs would have been prohibitive only a few decades ago. They credit breakthroughs in biotechnology and genetics that have provided moreeffident means of experimentation and production.

1/ Access to isolated human genes has revolutionized the way we search for novel drugs today," says

William Sleere, Pfizer's chief

executive officer,

announces a joint venture with other

pharmaceutical firms to develop ann-viral therapies 10 treat HIVIAIDS.

Alan Proctor; a Pfizer molecular geneticist. "More than half of the discovery approaches in our current portfolio are based on genetic technology, [and] access to novel genes has become a determinative factor in our ability to initiate new discovery approaches."

Source: Report of the 1993 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, Pfizer, Inc., 235 East 42nd Street, New Yo(k, New York 1001i7"5755.

II Ten Forecasts For Health Care

Permanent artificial heart, treatment for AIDS are foreseen

Medicine is being transformed not only by technological breakthroughs, but also by changing attitudes of patients and shifts in the political and economic environment

"For the past fifteen or twenty years, the American health-care system has been undergoing a major transition. Probably the greatest change has involved the transfer of power and authority from physicians to patients and third parties," says Denton A. Cooley, a cardiac surgeon with the Texas Heart Institute, in Looking Forward: The Next Forty Years.

Cooley explains that there was little review of decisions and spending in medicine until the 19705, when doctors became increasingly accountable to insurers, regulators, and lawyers, due to economic conditions as well as a growing number of malpractice lawsuits. Patients have also increasingly demanded medical solutions to a variety of non-healthrelated problems, such as baldness and sagging chinlines,

In this context, Cooley offers his top 10 predictions for health and medicine in the early twenty-first century:

• Health-care facilities will be pushed to the limit by an increase in the number of elderly. Americans are now older for a longer time. By 2030, the United States will have twice as many senior citizens as it does today, 70% of them women.

• America's health-care system

Artificial hearts will become more widely used in the future, predicts cardiologist Denton Cooley. However, a more vlable energy source must still be developed to

make these devices truly permanent implants. Shown here is the first artificial heart unit used on a human patient, which Cooley himself i.mplanted in 1969.

may be restructured to resemble the current Canadian or British systems. Every citizen would have a basic level of government-funded care, with more-specialized treatment financed through patients or insurance companies. Today, there are 35 million Americans who are uninsured, many of them children.

• Traditional surgery will lose ground to outpatient-oriented procedurss, Major incisions during surgery tend to cause more trauma than anything else. During the next decade, endoscopic or "keyhole" techniques, which result in less trauma, will allow patients to recover quicker and go home sooner.

• Hospitals will primarily be for the acutely ill. During the next few decades, the number of hospitalized patients will shrink by half. Hospitals will be defined not by the number of beds, but by the types of services provided, such as outpatient

THE FUTURIST November-December 1993 57

World Trends & Forecasts

LONDON PtcTURES SE;RVICE

surgery, birthing facilities, and outpatient rehabilitation.

• Emphasis will move from technology-intensive intervention to preventive measures. Medicine has been very treatment-oriented, says Cooley. As costs continue to rise, preventive medicine will take hold as a more cost-efficient alternative,

• Permanent artificial hearts will be developed. By the year 2010, between 10,000 and 20,000 people will have cardiac conditions severe enough to warrant implantation of an artificial replacement. However, problems such as a viable energy source must still be solved.

• AIDS will be treatable, if not preventable. The World Health Organization estimated that, during 1991, between 8 and 10 million people were infected worldwide. While researchers still have to contend with multiple strains of the virus, some type of long-term treatment will be developed within the next decade.

• Genetic engineering will cure illnesses at the molecular level. Geneticists have already identified 440 human illnesses associated with genetic defects. Gene therapy will be used to correct such defects by the year 2000, Cooley predicts.

• Doctors will expand their definitions of "appropriate therapy." More Americans are turning to alternative therapies, now a $27-billion industry. With techniques like acupuncture and biofeedback now gaining acceptance, the mental and emotional condition of the patient will increasingly be incorporated into treatments.

• Health will be seen not merely as physical well-being. Physical wellbeing has come to be a "supervalue," without which there is no happiness, fulfillment, or success. People will have to come to terms with the fact that there must be a balance with their physical health and their mental and emotional well-being.

Cooley also points out another criticism of doctors-that they put more emphasis on treating the illness than on treating human beings. He says that the current system of medical training teache doctors to

act formal, detached, and emotionless. "This attitude can cause doctors to resemble skilled mechanics rather than compassionate healers," says Cooley.

The attitude of American patients has also changed. No longer will they be patronized or kept in the dark about their health. According to Cooley, "They are better informed about health issues than ever before and want to assume an active role in their own treatment."

Source: "Health and Medicine" by Denton A. Cooley in Looking Forward: The Next Forty Years, edited by John Marks Templeton. The K.S. Giniger Company/HarperBusiness. 1993.229 pages. Available from the Futurist Bookstore for $25 ($22.95 for Society members), cal. no. B-1710. To order, use

the coupon on page 41.

Computers

The Networked States of America

Data highways will electronically connect people even in isolated areas, such as this farm in Great Britain. As nations develop the technologies, however, they must also grapple with issues such as copyright enforcement, standards for the indexing and accuracy of information, simple operating procedures, and protection of confidential material.

year 2015-raises a number of basic questions.

"Before the nation goes on-line, we must address issues such as security, property rights, and access controls," says Eugene Spafford, a professor of computer science at Purdue University and an expert on computer security. Spafford paints out that even within existing computing networks there are few standards and even less consensus on such issues. The fact that current networks are already global in scope makes addressing these issues even more important.

Enforcing copyrights is one of the first things that will have to be dealt with on a national network. Today's information technology makes it extremely easy to copy and pass along copyrighted material. "People don't respect copyrights now," says Spafford. In order to make a national network attractive to publishers and other possible sources of informa-

58 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

National computer network poses dilemmas

The proposal to create an information superhighway-a computer information network that would link every business, classroom, library, and home in the United States by the

tion, it will be crucial to protect copyrighted material ranging from novels to newspaper articles to software.

Spafford points out that organizing such massive amounts of information presents an enormous challenge. "Trying to find something on such a large system with our current technology would be like going to the library with no card catalogs, no on-line resources, and no librarians .. " Therefore, standards will have to be established on how to index this information, he says.

Standards for the information being entered into the system will also have to be established in order to ensure that it is both accurate and valid. Currently, "there is no way of checking which information is authentic," Spafford says. "Who should be allowed to put what information on the system is a major concern."

Another concern is that the information superhighway be relatively simple to use .. In a world where some people still cannot program their own VCRs, accessibility will be an important factor. Thus, increasing people's computer literacy will also be a priority. "The public not only needs access to technologies, but also the fundamental skills to use computers and to communicate effectively using the written word," says Spafford, cautioning that if this is not done the gap between the techno-able and the techno-illiterate may widen even further.

Keeping confidential information secure is probably the greatest obstacle to a successful national network Data in current systems is still very vulnerable to theft or destruction. "Existing security technologies are not adequate to protect the information," says Spafford. He suggests that current laws be expanded in order to better define what constitutes theft of digital information.

Once a national information network is established, however, it may greatly aid harmony among different peoples. In the electronic arena, according to Spafford, what is being said is more important than the age, race, or gender of who is saying it.

Furthermore, the maintenance of such a system will spawn a need for more computer scientists and engineers, as well as other communication and information specialists.

But there is also room for the nontechnicians as well, says Spafford. He points out that trying to foresee every single ramification of a national computer network is impossible, so, "to fully realize the potential, we'll need to involve the poets as well as the technicians in such an endeavor:"

Source: Purdue University News Service, 1132 Engineering Administration iBuilding, West Lafayette, lndlana 47907-1132.

Work

_ p. rofessionals ~OntheMove

Highly mobile workers increasingly rely on new technologies

Professional people are on the go more than ever before. Even if they are merely going across town, they need portable technology to help them out, so the market for mobile information technology is growing, according to a recent study by the Massachusetts-based BIS Strategic Decisions.

Most mobility is local, says the re-

port .. Sixty-nine percent of a professional's time spent out of the office is either in the same building or fairly close by; only 1 % of those surveyed said they spend a substantial amount of time working outside the country.

Nearly 75% of professionals consider themselves mobile, according to the study. But traditional demographic indicators cannot be used to accurately track these professionals, who include managers and business owners, representing a variety of fields. According to the study, traditional mobile information technology such as laptop computers, fax systems, cellular phones, and pagers, as well as new personal digital assistants (PDAs) in the form of electronic notebooks and organizers, are making this field the fastest-growing segment of the information technology market.

And yet "a lot of technology is searching for a marketplace," says William F. Ablondi, vice president of BIS's Personal Computing Market Advisory Service. "Pentops, palmtops, and PDAs~not just notebooks, laptops, and luggables-c-are the focus of discussions, conferences, and

Portable professionals? In this chart, the size of each 'bubble" is proportionate to the numbers of mobile workers in each category. "Road Warriors" are the largest category, spending three-quarters of their time outside of the office building.

Mobility

'" .5

:!! :; .,

.5 S .,

..

~

c

E

g

~

!

e E i=

!

LC>CIII

Wor~ Time O"tslde 01 Oulld IJlg

Remo1e

THE FUTURIST Nl.lVember-December 1993 59

World Trends & Forecasts

venture funding. But vendors need to have a better understanding of users' needs before deciding how to sell these devices."

The SIS study classified mobile professionals into eight different categories, of which the top three spent a great deal of time "on the fly." The other five principally traveled locally.

The categories of mobile professionals are:

• Globetrotters, who make up the main portion of international travelers. Travelers in this group, which is older and predominantly male, hold major positions in large companies and are heavy users of information technology.

• Road warriors, who spend 75% of the time away from their buildings and 30% out of their local metropolitan area entirely. The secondhighest users of mobile phones, they also spend half of their time either at a client's office or on a sales call.

• Corporate wanderers, who are made up mostly of managers. Wanderers travel less than the previous two groups, spending more time at their own companies instead. They are the least likely to use mobile phones or electronic organizers.

• Corridor cruisers, who spend most of their time working with others within the same building or campus.

• Small-site bosses, who are usually either the owner of a small business or a branch manager for a larger firm.

• Collaborators, who frequently need to process data for a response 00 a very tight schedule (usually within an hour's time), consist of educated young professionals who can spend up to 85% of their time working with others.

• Solo practitioners, who work on an independent basis and travel only occasionally.

• Hermits, who seldom work with others. They are among the least mobile groups of all and have little need for portable or mobile devices.

Source: 'The Mabile Professional Market Segmentation Study," SIS Strategic Decisions, One Long.water Circle, Norwell, Massachu-

setts 02061. D

60 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

THE FUTURIST QUIZ

By S. Norman Feingold

Questions (Circle true or false)

1. Surgery will more likely be successful if the patient doesn't worry about it first.

T F

2. A recent breakthrough promises to end a blight affecting wheat

crops.

T F

3. Astronomers are dose to discovering the origins of comets.

T F

Answers

1. False. Friends and relatives may advise you to try relaxation exercises or to forget about the surgery you're facing, hut recent research by British psychologist Anne Manyande and her colleagues at University College in London suggest that you'd be better off facing and experiencing the anxiety.

Relaxation training may make people less anxious and tense before minor surgery, but during and after the opera lion it can lead to marked surges of cortisol and adrenalin, two potent hormones known to be related to stress. Thus, thinking about and preparing for a stressful event may be better than relaxing.

2. True. After more than two decades of research, scientists have beaten leaf rust without the

use of deadly chemicals. Leaf rust causes hundreds of millions of dollars in crop damage every year. A rust-resistant strain of wheat has been developed by researchers at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center near Mexico City by cross breeding an old Brazilian-grown wheat with new, high-yield varieties. This finding has enormous economic implications for farmers, food processors, and consumers worldwide, since wheat is the world's second-mast-important food crop (after rice).

3. True. A small, planetlike object beyond Pluto may finally pro~ vide evidence of where comets come from. Its discoverers believe that the object confirms the existence of the hypothetical Kuiper belt, home of would-be comets. Astronomer David Jewitt of the University of Hawaii says, "There is a high probability we have round the Kuiper belt," and if this is true, "we've found the answer to the question, When~ do comets come from?" The discovery means that a piece of the solar system has been found that has not changed much since the planets formed. Further research will help us know how planets are formed.

About the Columnist

S. Norman Feingold:, a licensed psychologist in private practice, is presldant of the National Career & Counseling Services, 1511 K Sireet, N .. W., Suite 541, Washington, D.C. 20005.

Medendorp Van Erp Corporation' 4041447-1681

Corporate Outplacement and Individual Career Transiti.on Programs.

We train people how to get a JOB, how to start a BUSINESS, and how to deal with CHANG,E and uncertainty.

Motivational Public Speakers

For information call Mary C. Van Erp, Atlanta Chapter Membership Director, or David Medendorp, Atlanta Chapl.er Coordina,tor and 1995 WFS Conference Chairman ..

OUf comprehensive job search/career change workbook is available at $19.95 per copy, including shipping and handling.

l.etters

conHnued from page 2

more-humane way, making cities more comfortable, safer, and environmentally sustainable.

Every example in the article falls short of even the most-basicaudit for human scale, safety, beauty, tranquility, social responsibility, or compatibility with the natural world. Just envisage yourself walking through some of the spaces that would be created and you will feel just how inappropriate and insensitive they will be. God forbid that these should become our habitats of the future!

Limy B. Beasley City Planning Department Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Editor's note: Marcia Lowe'sartide "Alternatives to Sprawl: Shaping Tomorrow's Cities" (July-August 1992) addressed many of these issues. THE FUTURIST plans to continue covering the problems of cities, as well as innovative solutions.

• Cool Idea for Lake Michigan

McKinley Conway's article, "Super Projects: New Wonders of the World" (March-April 1993) omitted a new wonder. A handful of imaginative futurists in Milwaukee are currently studying how best to use icy water-a reliable and r~newable cooling energy-from Lake Michigan to coo] bu.i1dings and certain products, in lieu of building ever more polluting power plants. We appreciate any help in converting our own "super project" from the idea stage to reality.

Gerard Friedenfeld Milwaukee, Wisconsin

• Inspirational Art.icles

Thank you for THE FUTURIST and for all of the ideas, information, and possibilities that you provide me.

Your March-Apri11993 edition played a Significant role in the success of our company's conference, "Building the Future." I just happened to be reading my copy of THE FUTURIST while I was thinking about who to have as keynote presenters for the conference. The articles on Doug Michels and Peter Bollinger ("Designing a City for Mars") and on Walter Kroner ("Flexi-House," Tomorrow in Brief) led me to exactly who I was looking for.

Deborali Holmes Endex Engineering Coroaiiis, Oregon

CL.ASSIFIEDS

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FUTURES RESEARCH QUARTERLY is the refereed [ournal providing the latest from the emerging field of futures research. Included with your Professional Membership in the World Future Society. Dues for one-year membership: $95. Contact: Professional Membership Program, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmon! Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814; telephone 301/656-8274,. fax 301/951-0394.

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THE FUTURIST November-December 1993 61

INSTITUTIONAL MEMBERS

.... " ...

A Complete List of the World Future Society's Member Organizations

ASSOCIATIONS/FOUNDATIONS

Altemativ Framtid, Oslo, Norway American Association of Homes for Aging, Washington, D.C., Sally Henderson American Automobile Association, Heathrow, Florida, Stephanie Haimes

American Peace Network, Takoma Park, Maryland, Peter A. Zuckerman

Arkansas Institute, Little Rock, Arkansas, Richard A. Huddleston

Baha'i Wodd Centre library, Haifa, Israel Basque Institute for Futures Studies, Zarautz, Spain

A. Burnett & C. Tandy Foundation, Fort Worth, Texas, Thomas Beech

Christian Children's Fund, Richmond, Virginia Finnish Society for Future Studies, Espoo,

Finland .

Flinders University, Adelaide, South AIlS· tralia, Australia, R. Reynolds

BUSINESS FIRMS

Agway, Inc, Syracuse, New York, Rosie Powers

Alexander Consulting Group, Newbury" port, Massachusetts, Charles E. Ginsberg

Argyle Diamond Mines Pty., Ltd., West Perth, Western Australia, Australia, w.G. Rowley

Bank of Ireland, Slough Berkshire, England, Seamus Creedon

Bell Atlantic, Arlington, Virginia, W.E.

Legstrom

Business Publishing Company, Seoul, South Korea

Chevrolet Motor Division GMC, Warren, Michigan, L.D. Dodge

Colciencias, Bogota, Colombia

Domain .. Inc, New Richmond, Wisconsin, James H. Buell

Dow Consumer Products, Ine., indianapolis, Indiana, Kent West

Du POi'll IS, Newark, Delaware, F.J. Robinson

62 THE FUTURIST Nooemoer-Deeember 1993

General Council of Ministry, Dayton, Ohio, Mearle L Griffith

Gilchrisl Institute for Cognitive Science, Bronxville, New York, Robert Flower

Girl Guides of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Global Village Ministries, South Pasadena,

California, Joe B. Webb

IAM, Hollywood, Maryland

Info Network, Braamfonrein, South Africa Institute for Alternative Futures, Alexan-

dria, Virginia, Clement Bezold

Institute for Futures Studies, Copenhagen, Denmark, Rolf Jensen

Institute for the Future, Menlo Park, Califorrna, J. Ian Morrison

New Zealand Futures Trust, Wellington, NewZeaJand

Forecasting International, Ltd., Arlington, V"rrginia, Marvin Cetron

The Futures Croup, Glastonbury, Connecticut, Katherine H. Willson

Futurist & Policy Analysis Inc, Alexandria, Virginia, Stuart Haggard

Harbor Capital Advisors, Chicago, Illinois, Bart Madden

111M do Bi:azil, Rio de Ianeiro, Brazil

I.E. Muhanna & Co., Nicosia, Cyprus, I.E.

Muhanna

Institute for Pmfessiunal Development, Saunders, St. Maarten, Netherlands Antilles, Jackson C Stevens

Janet Bieringer & Associates, Denver, Colorado, Janet Bieringer

Manager International Company Ltd., Central, FF, Hong Kong, Anthony M. Paul Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance, Springfield, Massachusetts, Harriett Grayson

Prognosticky Ustav Sav, Bratislava, Slovak Republic

St .. Polycarp's Parish, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Rev. Brian Keen

Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Tokyo, Japan,

Takahiro Suzuki .

Sekretartiat fUr Zukunftsstudien, Celsenkirchen. Germany, Peter Moll Society of Actuaries, Schaumburg, Illinois Society of Police Futurists International, San Francisco, California, William L. Tafoya

Strategic Liaison Committee, Burbank, Queensland, Australia, Barry J. Corrick

Swiss Society for Futures Research, Muri, Switzerland, Gerhard Kocher

Wodd Institute Council, Brooklyn, New York, Julius Stulman

MGA, Inc, Gloucester, Massachusetts, Michael Giglio tti

Northwestern Mutual. Life Insurance Company, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Margaret Wainer

Pacific Gas & Electric Research & Development Library, San Ramon, California

Readmore Inc., New York, New York

San Diego Gas & Electric, San Diego, California, Matthew B. Herndon

Scott and White Hospital Marketing & Health Plan, Temple, Texas

Stephen Roulac Group, Larkspur, California, Stephen E. Roulac

Swets North America, B€rwyn, Pennsylvania

Swiss Bank Corporation, Basel, Switzerland, Walter Rambousek

TIllinghast, Inc; Stamford, Connecticu t, H.F.Kloman

United Research Co., Morristown, New Jersey, Andrea Dudas

• ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••

EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

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Ball State University, Muncie, Indiana Bath College of Higher Education Global Futures Project, Bath, England, David Hicks

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Bowling Green State University Library, Bowling Green, Ohio

Calgary Board of Education, Calgary, Alberta, Canada,]. Temple

California State University, Dominguez Hills, California, LibTaTY

Carleton Board of Education, Nepean.

Ontario, Canada, Nancy D. Halsall

City College of New York, New York, New York, Fred Brodzinski

La Commission des ikoles Catholiques de Quebec, Quebec, Quebec, Canada

Dallas Independent School District, Dallas, Texas, Rosita Apodaca

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Education Centre-Library, Bloemfontein, South Africa

Fairview School District, Fairview, Pennsylvania, W. Stockebrand

Illinois State University, Normal, Illinois, Jerry Jinks

Institut for Anvendt Fremtidsfnrskning,

Copenhagen, Denmark

John Carroll University, Cleveland, Ohio Madonna Universitj, Livonia, Michigan McPberson USD #418, McPherson, Kansas,

Perry McCabe

Metropolitan Technical Community College, Omaha, Nebraska

National Defense University, Washington, D.C.

New Mexico Institute, Socorro, ew Mexico North Haven High School, North Haven, Connecticut, Tom Marak

Northeast Technical Assistance Center, Williamston, North Carolina, Jeanne Meiggs

Northeast Wisconsin!V'rAE, Green Bay, Wisconsin, David Molnar

Oak Harbor School District #201, Oak Harbor, Washington, Roger Woehl

Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, Keith Smith

Ontario Science Centre, Don Mills, Ontario, Canada

Orange County Public Schools, Orlando, Florida, Cole H. Jackson

Orange County School Board, Orlando, Florida

Pima Community College. Tucson, Arizona, Laurence Victor

Presbyterian College, Seoul, South Korea Rand Afrikaans University, Aucklandpark, South Africa

Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, John M. Cooney

Ryerson Public Schools, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

School District of Kansas City, Kansas City, Missouri

Seven Oaks School, Division 10, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

SlAST, Kelsey Campus, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

State University of New York, Albany, New York, T.). Kinney

State University of New York, Binghamton, New York

Student Success Programs, San Diego, California

Texas State Technical College, Waco, Texas Township High School District 214, Arlington Heights, Illinois, John Kaltsas

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Job Council of the Ozarks, Springfield, Missouri, Chet Dixon

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Ministry of Education, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Ministry of Research Science & Technology, Wellington, New Zealand, Malcolm Menzies

NDHQI AU DGPP, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, Wendy Quinlan-Gugnon

For information about Institutional Membership, see page 22.

University of Akron, Akron, Ohio, Gary Gap pert

University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, Roger L. Caldwell

Unive.rsity of California, San Francisco, California

University of Central Oklahoma, Edmond, Oklahoma

University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, Ted Slovin

University of Northern Iowa, Cedar Falls, Iowa

University of South Africa, Stellenbosch, South Africa

University of Southern Colorado, Pueblo, Colorado

University of Wisconsin, La Crosse, La Crosse, Wisconsin, Larry Cozad

University of Wisconsin, Mjlwaukee, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Belden Paulson

U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania

WaShington State University, Pullman, Washington

Western New England College, Springfield, Massachusetts, Judith A. Brissette

Office of State Planning=-Scanning Project, Honolulu, Hawaii

Queensland Department of Transportation, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

State Justice Institute, Alexandria, Virginia, David r. Tevelin

Tennessee Valley Authority, Knoxville, Tennessee, P.W. Hyatt

Turku School of Economics, Turku, Finland, Anita Rubin

UNESCO, Caracas, Venezuela

U.S. Air Force, Washington, D.C., Mark

Weisenbloom

U.S. Air ForceIHQILEEX, Washington, D.C. U.S. Air ForceIHQ/XOXP; Washington, D.C. U.S. Congress, OTA, Washington, D.C. USDA, APmS, PPD, RAD, Hyattsville,

Maryland, R. Werge

USDA NAL, Beltsville, Maryland

U.S. Department of the Treasury, Washington, D.C.

Ustran.scomrrCJS-A, Scott Air Force Base, llLinois

THE FUTURIST November-December 1993 83

FUTURE VIEW

By Amitai Etzioni

Individual Rights and Community Responsibilities

Americans may commit themselves to an ethic of "We" rather than "Me."

Historians will look back on the 1990s, I believe, and see them as a period in which the reconstruction of American society took place. The United States is beginning to experience a movement from "Me-ism" to a commitment to the "We." From a preoccupation with rights, American society is moving to demand that people shoulder their responsibilities and pay greater attention to the needs of their families and communities.

A few examples make the point. More and more u.s. states demand that those who receive welfare seek work, and if they cannot find work, they must perform some kind of public service. Americans are increasingly expected to drink in moderation and avoid smoking in order to reduce the burden on health care. Deadbeat fathers are being persuaded with new vigor to support their children. There is a new willingness to face the deficit in the national budget, and there is also an increase in the number of people who vote.

Standards in schools are beginning to rise. Many schools have dropped the notion of automatic advance-

ment from grade to grade. The concept of minimum competence as a requirement for graduation is catching on. By the end of the decade, I believe, fairly stringent national standards for education will be in place. Such standards will encourage schools to aim higher and spotlight those that do not.

The grand debate about the future of the family will lead to new efforts to enable parents to attend to their children. The 1993 Family and Medical Leave Act, which now covers only those who work for larger companies and grants 90 days of unpaid leave will be extended, I predict, to cover all Americans and grant them six months of paid leave-as is the case in most of Europeby the year 2000.

Nonetheless, I believe that the United States will face more urban crises, such as the one in Los Angeles, and that the nation will not be immune to the worldwide drift toward tribal conflicts, already affecting 23 countries. Americans need to rebuild not just their communities, but also the ties that bind communities into one overarching society. 0

About the Author Amitai Etzioni, university professor at The

George Washington University and a speaker at the World Future Society's Seventh General Assembly last summer, is the founder of the Gommunitarian Network, a group that emphasizes the individual's responsibility 10 society.

Communitarians maintain that society has emphasized individual rights in recent years, with little concern about the individual's responsibilities. People claim the right to health care, adequate housing, higher education, and credit cards, neglecting the fact that such rights can only be enjoyed if somebody has the responsibility for providing these services. The lack of connection between rights and responsibilities is epitomized, Etzionf says, by the view presented on a television show about the savings and loan mess:

"The taxpayers should not have to pay for this; the government should," People seem to believe that there really is a benevolent Uncle Sam who could pick up the tab for his people.

In his new book, The Spirit of Community, Etzlonl calls lor a moratorium on the generation of new rights, such as the supposed right of prisoners on death row to sire children or the right of people not to be required to wear seat belts and motorcycle helmets even though the general public must bear the costs of the more-severe injuries they sustain in accidents. 'We all lose if the publicity department of every special interest can claim that someone's rights are violated every time they don't get all they want."

The Spirit of Community: Rights, Responsibilities, and the Communitarian Agenda (Crown Publishers, 1993) is available from the Futurist Bookstore. See page 40.

Amitai Etzioni"s address is The Communitarian Network, clo The George Washington University. 2130 H Street, N.W., Gelman Library, Suite 714-F, Washington, D.C. 20052.

Amitai Etzioni, speaking at the World Future Society's Seventh General Assembly, describes how a return to community values can reshape and renew troubled societies.

64 THE FUTURIST November-December 1993

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