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BlackRock What's Ahead in 2011

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BlackRock What's Ahead in 2011

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mm18881
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What’s Ahead in 2011

An Investment Perspective: Year-End Summary and Market Outlook

} A Review of 2010: It was rocky, but 2010 goes into the history books marking a second
consecutive year of double-digit returns for equities. See page 3.

} Deflation and Inflation: Over the coming years, we expect deflationary and inflationary forces
to become more balanced, but we are not anticipating an increase in the fed funds rate in 2011.
See pages 3 & 4.

} The Outlook for 2011: Our overall call for the coming year is that it should look somewhat similar
to 2010 — but with the risks balanced more to the upside than was the case last year. See page 5.

} The Scorecard for Our 2010 Predictions: Most of the predictions we made one year ago came Bob Doll
to pass, although we fell short on a couple. See pages 6 & 7.
Chief Equity Strategist,
} 10 Predictions for 2011: We offer 10 new predictions about the economy and financial markets Fundamental Equities
for the coming year. See pages 8, 9 & 10.

} Investment Opportunities: At this juncture, we recommend investors continue to overweight


equities, and to focus on opportunities in US markets in particular. See page 11.

Not FDIC Insured • May Lose Value • No Bank Guarantee


[2]

Executive Summary

“Muddle through” was one of the phrases we used repeatedly throughout 2010
to describe our expectations for the US economy, along with our forecast
that stocks would “grind higher.” This turned out to be a pretty accurate
description of events last year. We entered 2010 calling for a year-end S&P
500 Index target of 1,250, right around where the index actually wound up
(1,257). For the coming year, we are forecasting a similar environment, but
perhaps one that is slightly better — call it “muddle through; grind higher plus.”

Last year, we thought our 1,250 number represented a pretty good guess,
but were concerned that we might have been too optimistic. In 2011, we are
calling for a year-end S&P 500 landing point of around 1,350, or higher. This
would represent roughly the same percentage gain as in 2010. The wrinkle
we would add this time, however, is that we think we may be too pessimistic.
In other words, in 2010 we thought the risks were primarily to the downside,
while in 2011 we believe the risks are primarily to the upside.

We enter the New Year with confidence levels improving, with the outlook
for growth accelerating and with deflationary risks shrinking. The corporate
sector is in solid shape, and is positioned to deliver another year of strong
earnings. Monetary policy will eventually normalize, but for the foreseeable
future, it should remain quite easy. The economy will hardly be robust, but
growth levels (and the quality of growth) should improve over the coming year.
Inflationary threats are all but invisible in most parts of the developed world.
In all, the backdrop suggests that risk assets (particularly stocks) should be
in for another strong year.
[3]

A Look Back at 2010

A Year in Three Acts A year ago at this time,

A year ago at this time, we made the forecast that cyclical stimulus would beat out structural problems. we made the forecast that
This turned out to be a good representation of what actually happened, and over the course of the cyclical stimulus would beat
year, risk assets continued the choppy advance they began in 2009. In some sense, there were three out structural problems.
parts to 2010. The early months saw risk assets move higher as they continued the 2009 asset recovery This turned out to be a
story, helped by preliminary signs of employment improvements and very strong fourth quarter good representation of what
2009 and first quarter 2010 earnings. The middle months of 2010 saw a double-digit percentage
actually happened, and over
correction on the back of the Greek sovereign debt crisis and a stalling in jobs growth, leading to
the course of the year, risk
fears of a double-dip recession. Investors were also unnerved by the May “flash crash” and the
uncertainty surrounding the financial reform bill. Nevertheless, after touching a late summer low, assets continued the choppy
the market experienced a very strong finish to the year (US stocks advanced more than 20% from advance they began in 2009.
their August lows through the end of the year) as double-dip fears receded, jobs growth resumed
and the US midterm elections results were perceived to be capital markets friendly. Additionally, US stocks ended the year
Federal Reserve President Ben Bernanke delivered his famous Jackson Hole speech, leading to a up double-digit percentages,
second round of quantitative easing measures (QE2) and, perhaps most importantly, the Bush-era and the S&P 500 closed at
tax cuts were extended and supplemented with some fiscal sweeteners.
close to our 1,250 target,
Regarding the economic backdrop, debt and deflationary risks remained present throughout 2010, outpacing most developed
causing central banks (especially the US Fed) to respond with unprecedented actions. Real gross markets and many important
domestic product (GDP) growth continued in a positive direction but remained subpar compared to
emerging markets.
most recoveries on the historic record. In the United States, jobs growth was not strong enough to
reduce the unemployment rate. Corporations, however, managed to notch fantastic earnings gains
With the high degree of
despite mediocre economic growth. Inflation remained a non-issue in the developed world, but
began to rear its ugly head in some emerging economies. Government deficit spending and debt excess capacity in labor
levels continued to haunt investors, but corporate financial health remained remarkably strong in and manufacturing, it is
both balance sheet and income statement terms. almost impossible to imagine

US stocks ended the year up double-digit percentages, and the S&P 500 closed at close to our widespread inflation taking
1,250 target, outpacing most developed markets and many important emerging markets. Still, the hold any time soon.
year saw investor assets flow out of equity funds (especially US equities) and into bond funds as the
insatiable thirst for income continued. Overall, equity market movements were choppy in 2010 , but
ultimately a double-digit percentage gain goes into the history books.

From Deflation to Inflation (Eventually)


One of the main themes that dominated the global economy in 2009 was the competing forces of
deflation and inflation, and 2010 saw a continuation of that battle. Over the past few years, deflationary
risks have obviously dominated, but there has been evidence of inflationary pressures in some
markets (most obviously in China), and we have seen inflation in the form of rising commodities
prices. With the high degree of excess capacity in labor and manufacturing, however, it is almost
impossible to imagine widespread inflation taking hold any time soon. Recent data shows inflation
remains muted, and the Federal Reserve’s launch of QE2 demonstrated that, if anything, the Fed is
trying to promote higher levels of asset price inflation.
[4]

A Look Back at 2010 (continued)

Assuming our growth outlook Over the longer term, the combination of easy monetary policy, further injections of quantitative
is correct, the Fed is likely to easing and high deficits has led many to worry about the prospects for inflation. In our view, the
keep rates near zero through worst of the deleveraging situation is now in the past and the impact of deleveraging on future growth
will be less than it was over the past two years. Along with the easing of deflationary pressures, the
the year, although it is possible
falling dollar, higher commodity prices and the addition of more quantitative easing should prime the
that by the end of 2011 the
pump for inflationary pressures to begin increasing. As such, we believe the shift from a deflationary
futures curve may begin to to an inflationary environment may be on the horizon over the next couple of years.
price a rate increase into
In this environment, we believe the Fed is unlikely to increase interest rates in 2011. Assuming our
the markets.
growth outlook is correct, the Fed is likely to keep rates near zero through the year, although it is
possible that by the end of 2011 the futures curve may begin to price a rate increase into the markets.
Outside of the United States,
stocks generally performed 2010 By the Numbers
well, but in a noticeable Although the course of the year was uneven and high levels of market volatility remained a constant
change from previous years, for stocks, 2010 ended strongly, marking the second consecutive year in which US stocks recorded
the United States was one of double-digit percentage gains. For the year as a whole, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained
the best-performing markets 14.1% to close at 11,577 and, in the process, moved past the levels last seen before the collapse
around the world. of Lehman Brothers in late 2008. For its part, the S&P 500 Index advanced 15.1% to 1,257, while
the Nasdaq Composite moved up 18.2% to 2,662. Small cap stocks experienced even stronger
gains for the year as investors began to move into higher-risk assets. For all of 2010, the small
cap Russell 2000 Index climbed 26.9%.

Outside of the United States, stocks generally performed well, but in a noticeable change from previous
years, the United States was one of the best-performing markets around the world. Europe was
plagued with sovereign debt problems throughout the year, and many emerging European markets
posted negative results for 2010. Among developed European markets, however, German stocks
rose 16.1% and UK markets advanced 13.0%. Japan, which has long been suffering from anemic
economic growth and deflationary problems, lost ground in 2010, with Japanese stocks declining
1.5%. China, which is combating inflation and is in the process of tightening monetary policy, saw
market declines of 11.3% for the year. Despite problems in areas of emerging Europe and in China,
however, emerging markets as a whole posted respectable returns, with the MSCI Emerging Markets
Index advancing 18.9% for the year.

In bond markets, the theme for almost all of 2010 was one of yields trending lower as investors continued
to move into the relative safety of fixed income investments. That theme turned around abruptly in
the fourth quarter of the year as investors began to seek out higher-risk assets, prompting bond
yields to rise sharply as the year drew to a close. For the year as a whole, however, yields were
down, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping from 3.85% to 3.30%. In this environment, the
Barclays Capital US Aggregate Bond Index gained a relatively modest (when compared to stocks)
6.5% for the year. In an environment of near-zero interest rates, cash investments, as represented
by the 3-month Treasury bill, returned 0.1% for 2010.
[5]

Looking Ahead to 2011

A Solid Backdrop for Stocks Equities are likely to surpass

As we indicated earlier, our outlook for 2011 is generally optimistic. Over the course of the year, we fixed income as the preferred
expect to see continued improvement in US economic growth, especially the quality of that growth. asset class, both in terms
This trend, coupled with improved business and consumer confidence as well as a less hostile capital of price appreciation and
markets attitude from Washington, DC, should lead to another reasonably good year for risk assets. investor flows.
Our 1,350+ S&P 500 Index target implies that the stock market should appreciate at least in line
with earnings in 2011, with the risks skewed more to the upside than was the case last year. The While our forecasted gains
cyclical recovery should continue, but as in 2010, the pace will be less than that of a typical for equity markets are similar
recovery due to the structural problems that continue to face most of the developed world. In this entering 2011 as they were at
environment, the Fed will likely remain accommodative, which will probably result in some further the start of 2010, it appears
steepening of the yield curve. Equities are likely to surpass fixed income as the preferred asset
to us that the risks have
class, both in terms of price appreciation and investor flows. We expect the US stock market to
moved from the downside to
outperform the MSCI World Index again in 2011. The gap between the higher growth rates in the
developing world and the lower ones of the developed world will likely shrink somewhat in 2011, the upside, meaning we see a
causing less differentiation in equity returns. higher probability of the S&P
500 Index ending the year
On the possible what-can-go-right front, we include an acceleration in jobs gains, improving business
above 1,350 than below it.
and consumer confidence, a possible upside surprise in real GDP, corporate earnings exceeding
expectations (as seen in 2010) and Washington, DC, beginning to address the debt and budget problems.
The what-can-go-wrong list includes the possibility of credit problems resurfacing (e.g., in the US
housing market, sovereign nations and among state and local governments), commodity price
increases causing profit margin pressure, inflation fears, a higher-than-expected rise in interest
rates and excessive policy tightening in emerging markets to curb asset bubbles. Additionally, the
magnitude of the market return since the August 2010 lows (US stocks rose more than 20% from
mid-August through the end of the year) means equity markets may have come too far, too fast,
and there is a chance that markets may have “borrowed” some of 2011’s returns in late 2010.

The upside possibilities could lead to a stock market that appreciates 10% to 20% more than we expect,
while the downside prospects could result in low double-digit percentage losses. In summary, while
our forecasted gains for equity markets are similar entering 2011 as they were at the start of 2010,
it appears to us that the risks have moved from the downside to the upside, meaning we see a
higher probability of the S&P 500 Index ending the year above 1,350 than below it.
[6]

The 2010 Scorecard

Overall Scoring Economic data fluctuated strongly throughout 2010 as the global economy continued to

Correct 7 emerge from the “Great Recession.” Likewise, financial market volatility remained elevated,
but equity markets finished the year with strong gains. Against this backdrop, most of the
Half Correct 1
predictions we made one year ago came to pass, although we fell short on a couple.
Wrong 2

Total 7.5/10

1
The US economy grows Although final fourth-quarter growth numbers will not be available for a while yet, economists are currently
above 3% in 2010 and revising their estimates upward, and it looks like GDP will have grown roughly 3% in the fourth quarter.
outpaces the G-7. Also, it is looking like US growth for all of 2010 should just clear the 3% hurdle. Among other G-7 countries,
with the exception of Canada, no other country’s growth level will surpass that of the United States.
2
Job growth in the United It would have been almost impossible to have phrased this prediction any better, since this exactly
States turns positive describes what happened on the labor market front in 2010. Employment growth did turn positive
early in 2010, but the toward the end of the first quarter, but gains were not strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.
unemployment rate
remains stubbornly high.

3
Earnings rise significantly When we made this prediction at the beginning of the year, our point was that earnings improvements
despite mediocre would outpace the broader improvements in the overall economy, and that is exactly what came to
economic growth. pass. In many ways, the degree to which corporate America was able to weather slow economic
growth, ongoing credit issues and a still-troubled financial system was quite a surprise.

4
Inflation remains Despite some inflationary concerns in areas of the developing world, deflationary pressures persisted
a non-issue in the among developed nations throughout 2010. We acknowledge that inflation may become a concern
developed world. in the years ahead given high deficits and some of the structural problems facing the United States,
but such an environment is not likely to develop in the near future.
5
Interest rates rise This is a prediction that we will have to mark in the “incorrect” column for this year. Some might say
at all points on the that we were not exactly wrong on this call, but simply early since interest rates did climb strongly
Treasury curve, over the last several weeks of the year. Overall, however, credit concerns, quantitative easing and
including Fed Funds. deflationary issues pushed the yield curve lower for the year. On the Fed Funds front, rates are likely
to remain low for some time, and we have no expectation that the Fed will raise the target rate at
any point in the coming months.
[7]

6
US stocks outperform The broad asset class call we made at the beginning of the year has come to pass. With US equity
cash and Treasuries, and market returns well into the double-digits, US stocks handily outperformed Treasuries (which came
most developed markets. in at less than 10%) and cash (which returned just over 0%). With few exceptions, US stocks also
outperformed other developed markets.
7
Emerging markets Economic growth in emerging markets was much stronger than in the developed world in 2010.
outperform as emerging From an equity markets perspective, emerging markets on balance outperformed developed
economies grow markets, but it was close and the degree of outperformance was narrower than we expected.
significantly faster
than developed regions.

8
Healthcare, information This is a prediction that came down to the wire. Going into the last week of the year, we were slightly
technology and in the “correct” column on this one. Unfortunately (for our predictions scorecard), we were wrong
telecommunications on this call, if only barely, since a basket of healthcare, information technology and telecommunications
outperform financials, stocks slightly underperformed a basket of financials, utilities and materials stocks.
utilities and materials.

9
Strong free cash flow and Strong free cash flow and strong balance sheets allowed companies to put their cash to work by
slow growth lead to an ramping up merger-and-acquisition activity. Dividend increases and share buybacks also increased
increase in M&A activity. strongly this year.
10
Republicans make We got the first part of this prediction correct, but the second part wrong, since Republicans did,
noticeable gains in the of course, take over the House of Representatives. In retrospect, there was a much larger non-
House and Senate, but incumbent wave that dominated the midterms than we expected.
Democrats remain firmly
in control of Congress.
[8]

Our Predictions for 2011

In an economic environment likely to be characterized by a modest cyclical recovery combined


with ongoing structural problems, we expect equity markets to remain volatile, but to see
continued gains. With this backdrop, we venture forward with our 10 predictions for 2011.
1
US growth accelerates Not only is US growth likely to be stronger in 2011 than it was in 2010, but more importantly, the
as US real GDP reaches quality of growth will improve. Economic activity in 2010 was based heavily on government stimulus
a new all-time high. and inventory rebuilding. Both of these factors will be less significant in 2011 than they were in 2010,
meaning final demand is going to pick up the slack. In particular, we believe real final sales will
increase from around 2% to almost 4%. This sort of growth is healthier for the economy and more
sustainable. Additionally, we believe economic growth in 2011 will be supported by an increase in
money growth, a steeper yield curve and easing credit conditions. Nominal GDP in the United States
already reached a new all-time high in 2010, and we expect real GDP to also reach a new high at
some point during the first half of 2011. Despite this outlook, however, we would caution that growth
levels are still likely to remain below trend.
2
The US economy creates We expect improved jobs growth as 2011 progresses, finally making some dent in the unemployment rate.
2 million to 3 million jobs Our prediction represents a clear acceleration over the 1 million+ new jobs created in 2010 and, in
in 2011 as unemployment effect, would represent a doubling in the rate of jobs growth. It takes approximately 125,000 jobs
falls to 9%. per month to accommodate new entrants into the labor force, and our view is growth will be noticeably
higher than that, averaging 175,000 to 250,000 per month. We believe the removal of the uncertainty
around tax policy and the fears of a double-dip recession, together with improved confidence, will
lead to more hiring. Leading indicators of hiring, including hours worked, productivity, initial jobless
claims and profitability, all point to more jobs. We note with interest that new hiring plans on the
part of corporations have improved as well. Historically, equity market returns have been more
ebullient when unemployment rates have been high and falling than at any other time.
3
US stocks experience a The last time the stock market posted three consecutive years of double-digit percentage gains was
third year of double-digit in the late 1990s. We believe a double-digit percentage total return is certainly possible for 2011.
percentage returns for the We expect earnings growth to continue to be better than economic growth, stocks are reasonably
first time in over a decade inexpensive and confidence levels are improving. We are using a 1,350 target as a floor for our year-
as corporate earnings end 2011 S&P 500 forecast, which is consistent with expected earnings gains. Our view is that the
reach a new all-time high. risks in 2011 are more to the upside when compared with the downside risks of 2010, meaning that,
if anything, our 1,350 target may be overly conservative. Should business and consumer confidence
levels continue to improve, if credit problems remain manageable and if politicians remain reasonably
capital markets friendly, then we could see some valuation improvements, which could push market
prices even higher. Regarding the earnings component of this prediction, operating earnings per
share achieved an all-time high of $91.47 for the S&P 500 in June 2007, and we believe corporate
earnings will exceed that number sometime around the middle of 2011. We note that, in recent
months, earnings revisions have again turned positive after faltering in mid-2010.
[9]

4
Stocks outperform While stocks did ultimately outperform bonds and cash in 2010, it wasn’t until the fourth quarter
bonds and cash. that stocks pulled ahead of bonds for the year. We expect stocks’ leading edge to continue in 2011.
Assuming stocks have any sort of positive return in 2011, they will outperform cash investments,
since short-term interest rates (and cash returns) are essentially stuck at just over 0%. The bigger
question is bonds; however, we believe interest rates are likely headed higher given accelerating
economic and jobs growth, the revival of business capital investment, the likelihood of a slowdown
in bond fund inflows and the fading of deflation fears. At present, there is still a wide gap between
the S&P 500 earnings yield and the BAA-rated corporate bond yield in favor of stocks, and we
expect that gap to close somewhat in 2011 as stocks outperform bonds.
5
The US stock market Before 2010, there was a multi-year pattern in which the MSCI World Index outperformed US stocks.
outperforms the MSCI In a surprise to many, that streak ended last year with US stocks beating the MSCI World Index by
World Index. nearly 400 basis points. We think 2011 will mark the second year of US outperformance. Compared
with the rest of the world, the United States is benefiting from more fiscal and monetary stimulus
and has a more innovative economy and better earnings growth prospects — all of which should help
US stock market performance. We also expect that emerging market economies will perform well,
but that the gap between emerging and developed economies is likely to narrow in 2011 (which should
also help US stocks on a relative basis). In other markets, we expect Europe will continue to struggle
with credit and sovereign funding issues and that Japan’s secular growth problems will likely remain.
6
The US, Germany and 2010 was a year in which geographic allocations played an important role in determining investors’
Brazil outperform Japan, overall portfolio returns, and we think 2011 will see a continuation of this trend. We favor markets
Spain and China. that have evidence of accelerating economic momentum and low levels of inflationary threats. We
also prefer to avoid markets that are facing significant credit risks. As a result, we are predicting that a
basket of US, German and Brazilian stocks should outperform a basket of Japanese, Spanish and Chinese
stocks. As we indicated in our fifth prediction, there are a host of reasons to favor US stocks, including
improving quality and quantity of US economic growth. Germany is exhibiting strength in manufacturing
and exports and Brazil is benefitting from a rapidly growing middle class and solid consumer spending
levels. On the other side of our equation, Japan is suffering from persistently slow growth and Spain
has a troubled banking system and ongoing credit woes. Regarding China, we expect economic
growth will remain strong, but that market is in the midst of a tightening cycle designed to combat
inflation — an environment that does not bode especially well for equity market performance.
[ 10 ]

Our Predictions for 2011 (continued)

7
Commodities and As long as global growth is at least reasonably strong (as it was in 2010), commodities prices should
emerging market appreciate in 2011. We believe oil could top $100 per barrel at some point during the year due to
currencies outperform better macro demand and continued inventory declines. At the same time, since gold is “the only
the dollar, euro and yen. currency without debt,” gold prices are likely to move higher over the course of the year, albeit at a
slower pace and more irregularly than they have over the past couple of years. Additionally, industrial
commodities such as copper should benefit from continued global growth and urbanization in
emerging markets. As indicated earlier, we expect the growth differential between emerging market
countries and developed markets will narrow in 2011, but we remain preferential toward emerging
market currencies over a basket of the dollar, euro and yen.
8
Strong balance sheets Corporations in America are doing very well. Balance sheets are strong and income statements are
and free cash flow lead showing high levels of free cash flow. This backdrop led to high levels of M&A activity and business
to significant increases reinvestment in 2010, and in the year ahead, we are calling for double-digit increases in dividends,
in dividends, share buybacks, M&A and business reinvestment. We believe the key to getting this prediction right is for
buybacks, mergers and business confidence to improve, signs of which became evident toward the end of 2010. In addition,
acquisitions (M&A) and we would argue that unlocking the $2 trillion+ of cash on corporate balance sheets is a significant
business reinvestment. key to better and more sustainable US GDP growth.
9
Investor flows move Should the economic and market backdrop play out as we expect, we should see fixed income flows
from bond funds to slow and equity fund flows pick up materially in 2011. This would reverse a multi-year trend in which
equity funds. investors have been embracing bond funds and shunning equity funds. Indeed, this reversal appeared
to kick off in the fourth quarter of 2010 when equities began to noticeably outperform fixed income.
Flows tend to follow prices, and we would expect that during the course of this year, we will see a
noticeable slowdown in bond fund flows and the switch into equity funds. The “era of fear” that we have
seen in equities in the past couple of years is in contrast to the “era of greed” we saw in the late 1990s.
10
The 2012 presidential Election seasons seem to grow longer every cycle, and already there appears to be an ample list of
campaign sees a plethora potential GOP presidential candidates. While it is impossible to know exactly who will run, our view
of Republican candidates is that many will declare their intention to run for president during 2011. Meanwhile, after a very
while President Obama difficult election for President Obama in November of last year, his move toward the political center
continues to move to is likely to continue as he attempts to be more business and capital markets friendly. It is clear that
the center. elections are decided by independents, and the President will need to increase his support within
the independent ranks significantly in order to improve his odds for reelection.
[ 11 ]

What’s an Investor to Do?

The start of a new year is always a good time to review your investment goals and asset allocation For additional information,
with your financial professional, and to make portfolio changes where necessary. With that in mind, or to subscribe to quarterly
we suggest some ideas investors may wish to consider: updates to this piece, please
Retain equity overweights: A combination of supportive fiscal and monetary policy, decent
}
 visit www.blackrock.com.
economic growth, low inflation, strong corporate earnings and decent valuations should be a
recipe for stock price appreciation in 2011. As such, we would recommend retaining overweight
positions in equities relative to cash and bonds.

Focus on free cash flow: One of our primary investment themes for the coming year will be to
}

focus on companies that have high levels of free cash flow, and we are seeing opportunities
across capitalizations, investment styles and geographies. At the same time, we think investors
need to hold a mix of both high-quality and cyclical stocks in their portfolios.

Think about geography: As indicated by our overall market outlook and our specific predictions,
}

we expect US stocks to continue to outperform most other global markets. Economic growth
should be stronger in the United States than in almost any other developed market, as should
corporate earnings growth. At the same time, it is important to maintain a diversified portfolio
with some allocation to better-positioned international markets, including emerging markets.

Stay with commodities: Gains will likely be uneven, and volatility in the commodities markets is
}

likely to remain high, but long-term investments in commodities continue to make sense.

Remember that gains will be harder to come by: In many ways, the “easy money” in this bull market
}

has already been made. The year ahead will likely see ongoing volatility and heightened dispersion
between the winners and the losers. In this sort of environment, selectivity will be critical.
About BlackRock
Since our founding more than 20 years ago, BlackRock® has held true to the core principles of
putting our investors’ interests first, and striving to deliver the investment performance they expect.
We believe the combination of our scale, global market insight and leading edge risk management
capabilities positions us to deliver consistent long-term investment results with fewer surprises.

BlackRock offers investors a full spectrum of investment solutions — each backed by the standards of
excellence that define our firm’s culture — including mutual funds, closed-end funds, exchange-traded
funds, separately managed accounts, money market funds, 529 college savings plans, alternative
investments and variable insurance funds. For additional information, please visit www.blackrock.com.

Source: BlackRock, Bank Credit Analyst. The opinions presented are those of the author on January 1, 2011, and may change as subsequent
conditions vary. Individual portfolio managers for BlackRock may have opinions and/or make investment decisions that, in certain respects,
may not be consistent with the information contained in this report. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research
or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.
The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock
to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future
results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole
discretion of the reader.
No investment is risk free. International investing involves additional risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity,
less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. The two
main risks related to fixed income investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding
decline in the market value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal
and interest payments. Investments in commodities may entail significant risks and can be significantly affected by events such as
variations in the commodities markets, weather, disease, embargoes, international, political and economic developments, the success
of exploration projects, tax and other government regulations, as well as other factors. Index performance is shown for illustrative
purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index.

FOR MORE INFORMATION: www.blackrock.com

BlackRock is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
Prepared by BlackRock Investments, LLC, member FINRA.
©2011 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved.

AC5251-0111 / DOLL-OUTLOOK-0111

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