hi > | Winning WennCe le ie S Winning Ways =n Bob Rothman PUBLISHED BY CHARTSEARCH LIMITED, 28 CHARLES SQUARE, LONDON N1 6HT aa aM LST ioron ISBN: 0 946393 51 6 The systems, advice and opinions contained in this book are based on which it is possible to incr er Caen as any person acting, or refraining from acting, as a result of material contained in this book.Contents # = Systems The Start 4 The Fundamental System * 6 Part One 6 Part Two 9 Part Three il Part Four 15 Part Five 16 The Houghton System * 18 Key Race Theory * 20 The Classics 20 Other Key Races 22 Special Key Race 24 The Dual Purpose Unity Plan * 25 Top Tip — To Pay Tax or Not to Pay Tax? 27 Top Tip — Points to Check When Having a Bet 27 Group Plan For Big Handicaps * 28 Top Tip — The Law Of Probability 31 The Hire Purchase Plan + 32 The Blue Riband Special * 34 Annual Classic Profit Plan * 36 Top Tip - Words Of Wisdom 39 Top Tip — Bets The Bookies Don't Like 40 Staking Plans * 4l The 50-Point Plan Nap Staking Plans The Floating Stake Plan The On Top List * High Grade Handicap List *« In The Betting Mart Useful Tables ~All Winning Favourites 1990-1994 : __ All Handicap Winning Favourites 1990-1994 2-Year Old Handicap Winning Favourites 1990-1994 3-Year Old Handicap Winning Favourites 1990-1994 All-Aged Handicap Winning Favourites 1990-1994 __ All Non-Handicap Winning Favourites 1990-1994 ___ Weight-for-Age Winning Favourites 1990-1994 Leading Trainers 1990-1994 Leading Jockeys 1990-1994 Appendicies Official Handicap Ratings _ Weights Raised and Long Handicap Group Races Weight-for-Age and Non-Handicaps Racecourse Gradings Apprentice Allowances Jockeys’ Overweight and Natural Weight _2-Year Old Non-Handicap Winning Favourites 1990-1994 _ 3-Year Old Non-Handicap Winning Favourites 1990-19944 The Start TT BOOK has been structured to benefit novice punters, the semi-professional and the professional backer. In the search for profitable betting opportunities, I have perused many systems and examined a multitude of methods and plans. It is my belief that while no system can be guaranteed to win a fortune, they are the basis for all forms of betting. Without having studied systematically, no punter is likely to make racing pay. For what is backing the favourite, relying on ratings or following a particular tipster if it is not a systematic approach to betting? The majority of backers will have bet randomly at some time in their racing career, but the majority also learn the right and wrong approach and that usually begins by following some pattern which they consider is likely to produce the best results. But back to essentials. This book contains systems selected from a copyright pool of several hundred. I have varied the contents so that they cover a fairly wide gamut and I have submitted a number of them to random testing to satisfy my own curiosity and also to illustrate that systems can find winners and show a profit. One or two systems have been included to give the inexperienced punter, experience. The topics range through staking plans, starting prices, ratings, handicapping, track gradings, favourites, permutations, etc. While some of. these will not in themselves, earn the backer a fortune, the reader should gain valuable insight into racing through his research, enjoy himself and with a bit of luck make a bob or two into the bargain. For the benefit of the more knowledgeable reader, I have added adjuncts to several of the methods and plans in an effort to provide material for fertile racing brains. Rothman 4 Waning Ways I have also inserted one or two ideas gleaned through years of painstaking research into hundreds of racing queries. As well as bringing the systems up-to-date, I have from time-to-time interspersed the book with advice and information. Surprisingly, what was relevant half-a-century ago is still important today. Horse-racing has a long tradition and many of its corner-stones are still in place. | have often been asked by beginners in the racing game for the name of some book that would give them a basic start in putting. I have come to the conclusion that while some of the explicit tomes on the market certainly have their place in the scheme of things, a punter perusing this book horoughly, backing first theoretically and then in the market place, should snd up having found a few winners and richer by far in betting lore. But it will not be particularly realistic to rely on just one system, hoping that it will lead to the proverbial pot of gold. Most of the shrewd punters I know, litilise three or four methods according to the time of season, the going and ~ the quality of racing. Each of the systems will have a special purpose. To make an analogy, Slatistics over a period of time in the Stock Market have shown that a shareholder buying into one company can be at high risk. Similarly, owning shares in 20 can be just as dangerous. The shareholder playing the ercentages, holds stock in half-a-dozen and monitors their progress. When yme are up others are down, and vice-versa. But overall through good mes and bad, he would expect to make a profit. Rothman's Winning Waysselection, It must be admitted that all the eggs are in one basket and should the selection lose, then all stakes are lost. But since the system to be discussed provides a reasonable amount of winners, surely it is more advantageous to place a little more money on one horse rather than spread the money over several. Look at it this way. If the chance of a horse winning a race is one in four, the chances of four horses winning four races must be 4x4x4x4 or 256-1. Granted there is the possibility of one of the four winning a race, but even if the price was 3-1, the backer has made nothing and with any lesser odds he _ would be out of pocket. The backer who places his money on just one horse, _ will by the above reckoning have one in four chances of winning. If his " selection is successful at only even money, he wins. These figures should Make readers think. The Fundamental System IHE SECRET of successful speculation on the — Turf lies in a sound knowledge of the fundamental systems. These must be understood and properly applied. It is not enough to know of any one good system and follow it through thick and thin. The shrewd operator has a grasp of the inherent — principles and he keeps them all working for him. These root systems are based on betting forecasts. Form figures, experts’ selections, starting price favourites and so on. They enable the q punter to predict what is likely to happen in the same way a — barometer forecasts the changes in the weather. The question now arises as to how this one horse is to be selected each day? would be no problem finding a suitable selection if the backer had detailed fecords, knew everything about Form, the habits of trainers and jockeys and could judge which horses suited which tracks and had a contact inside a stable. Then it is highly probable that he could settle on the day’s best bet. ‘Alas, many punters do not have the time, the inclination or the money to fetain a staff of experts to sift through all the relevant information and come 1 an objective conclusion. ; But there are many backers who blindly gamble their precious — / money away on a mere fancy for this or that horse, quite ignorant of certain basic facts about the race game. — Bookmakers have a very uncomplimentary name for these _ people. They call them mug punters. Yet money can be won on / the Turf - it is possible to beat the bookmakers! The aim in compiling this book is not to encourage gambling, but rather to discourage it. There is a world of difference — between intelligent betting and stupid gambling. The word — gambling suggests a recklessness and folly, but if you put money on horses without some definite plan, you are gambling — and gamblers cannot win consistently. @ Part One The basis of the fundamental system is the selection from the racing programme of one good horse daily here is however, a quick and inexpensive way of finding out the day’s sure el. It is through the power of the Press. A glance at any national newspaper will show just how busy the employees have been collating training hints, horses, betting forecasts and the such-like. The service provided by “such specialist newspapers as the The Sporting Life and Racing Post is not ‘fuesswork. It is the result of sound thought and thorough knowledge. There J pot even the necessity of obtaining a specialist paper, for morning papers like the Daily Mail, Daily Mirror and Daily Express, to name but three, have wil built up sound reputations through informative writers and rating experts. Given below is a fictitious race set out in detail which includes a great deal ‘of information, starting with the racecard number, Form figures, name of the _ horse, trainer, age, weight, jockey (and allowance if an apprentice rider) and Anyone who has a reasonable amount of racing knowledge will agree that it ee , , : : : ‘# tating figure. But the most important item of interest to us is the Betting is infinitely better to have one sound betting proposition daily than several horses to back in the hope of finding a winner. The stakes which would — otherwise be laid on three or four runners are invested on one really sound | 6 — Rethman's Waning Waysbe able to frame a series of rules that should prove profitable in the long run. GOLDEN PATH HANDICAP (0-90) £2000 5f 1 114 Holly B.Hills, M.Hills 2 102 Dally J.Spearing G.Hind (5) It is suggested, however, that readers should use only pencil 3 021 Trusted T.Craig K.Darley and paper when first utilising the statistical evidence presented 4 202 Lovely Rose T-Fairhurst S.Smith (7) on the following pages, before attempting to place a 5 213 Patchwork N.Tinler Kim Tinkler commission with their bookmakers. 6 230. HenryV ——_‘D.Chapman S.Wood (3) BETTING FORECAST: //-8 Holly, 9-4 Trusted, 4 Patchwork, 6 Lovel Rose, 10 Dally, 20 Henry V. : It will be seen that the prices vary enormously from 11-8 to 20-1. There i: logical explanation for this. It is because in the experts’ opinions, the 11-8 _ shot has the best chance of winning, Part Two now say that the systemite should concentrate solely on the favourite hin a certain range of odds, say Evens to 5-2 and that the horse in estion must also have form figures that include a first in its last three ings. Two or three decades ago this might well have sufficed to show a “profit that would have been acceptable. But today’s systems have to be much more sophisticated. Just two or three simple rules will not do. One \st diligently refine and then re-define the principles Thus, the Betting Forecast, or as it is sometimes called th Probable Starting Prices, gives at a glance one horse that i worth support. It is from the betting forecast that our system horse will initially be selected. ‘Years ago, backing favourites was enough to give a punter confidence of at least having a good day now and then, even if he did not always go home winning. ing the betting and form figure range expounded above, we would soon n in testing that the system does find winners, indeed, two or three in day at times, but the losing runs are quite unacceptable. Now we must start putting our ‘system search’ machinery into operation. must ask ourselves whether we are going to select from every race at ery meeting, every day? Or do we only select certain races at chosen meetings? And how do we go about making a decision on just those two ints alone? se questions can be answered. Through the advance of communications «| computer technology, we can now explore and utilise statistical vidence easier than ever before. Unfortunately times have changed. Nowadays, backing what one would | expect to be the best bet of the day (i.e. the shortest-priced favourite) would on many occasions lead to having to support an odds-on chance: and not merely a 10-11 or 4-6 shot, but often a horse at the virtually unbackabl odds of 3-, 4- and 5-1 on! , “ AT this point it must be stressed to the reader that backing 1 favourites indiscriminately could prove almost disastrous as backing outsiders, but by delving deeply into statistics, choosing the right races and at the right meetings, a punter can become a force with which the bookmaker has to reckon. _ Asa result, when we ask ourselves certain questions, we can ascertain to a lite degree the answers through historical notation. help us do that, there is a list of Useful Tables starting on page 54. ese indicate how particular courses have fared in terms of winning ourite percentages in the period 1990-1994. would help if, before studying the Percentage Tables, punters familiarised amselves with the different categories of races. One of the best guides in The Fundamental System selection must always be based on { the shortest-priced horse in the betting forecast. Which particular betting forecast is left to the discretion of the reader. * Nevertheless, after perusing Parts 2,3 and 4, and being © initiated into the secrets of ‘system searching’ readers should — Zothman's Wluning Ways Rothman's Waning Ways 910 this direction is to look at the headings of the races printed in newspapers. Obviously, it would pay to buy one of the specialist racing newspapers such as The Sporting Life, Racing Post, The Weekender or the raceform updates. in the weekend papers, as these carry more descriptive headings than the popular dailies. months later, when the three-year-olds get a reduced weight because they are considered to be more developed. 4-00 BOOKMAKERS 3-y-o SELLING HANDICAP (0-60) £3000 (Im) For three-year-olds only rated 0-60. Lowest weight 7st 7Ib. Penalties after fay 20 a winner 7b. his is a selling race for three-year-olds, meaning that the winner has to be up to be sold. But the trainer can buy his horse back. Sometimes there is © bid for the animal, in which case the trainer retains his horse. But quite n there can be fierce bidding for the winner and the trainer may have to out more in cash than he has won in prize-money to retain his charge. jut these races are often the subject of big gambles. However, the “selling r c game” has been complicated to some extent with the introduction of ming and Auction races. 1-30 JUNE STAKES aiden 3-y-o) £2500 (1m) For three-year-olds colts, geldings and fillies that have not won a race at urting. . bviously this is a very popular event and the conditions can be applied to Wy age range, particularly the two-year-olds who have just started racing. A number of types of races that are run nowadays are detailed below for — guidance. Classes of Races 2-30 NEW ENVELOPE HANDICAP STAKES (0-90) £5000 (im) ; For three-year-olds and upwards rated 0-90. Lowest weight 7st 7lb. Penalty — after May 20, Sib. This of course, is an all-aged handicap. 3-00 STADIUM STAKES (2-Y¥-O) £3,500 (5f) For two-year-olds only. Weights, colts and geldings 8st I1lb, fillies 8st 6lb. . Penalty a winner 7b. Of a race value £3000 10ib. This is a non-handicap race for two-year-olds only. But as can be seen from the conditions, weights will vary according to the sex and ability of the horse in the fact that winners in the race have to carry penalties. For example, a colt which had won a race value £3000 would carry 9st 7b (8st IIb plus 10Ib penalty). In an all-aged Weight-for-Age (WFA) race, the colts and fillies would have to _ carry weights according to their age, based on a formula set more than 100 years ago by Admiral Rous. A more complicated example follows. 3-30 THE PRINCE STAKES (Group 2) £40,000 (Im 2f) For three-year-olds and upwards. Weights: 3-y-o colts and geldings 8st Slb; fillies 8st 2b; 4-y-0 and up colts & geldings 9st 3b; fillies 9st. Penalties since 2-y-0, a winner of a Group 2 race 2ib. Of a Group 1 4lb. urther information and instruction in Official Handicap Ratings, roup Events, Weight-for-Age and Non-Handicaps, Weights Raised (Out { the Handicap) can be found in the Appendix. Part Three already stated, what sort of races to concentrate on, and at which course io back the favourite is left to the discretion if the punter. Further along in je book are a number of systems which can be pursued and a number of pters such as The Law of Probability, Words of Wisdom, Bets the Jkmakers Don't Like and In The Betting Mart which should also be ied in conjunction with what has just been written and along with the of Percentage Tables. This WFA example is based on a race run in June and therefore the weights for 3-y-o's would be different for a similar type of race run a couple of Rothman 's Winning Ways — Rethman's Weaning WaysOn page 16 there is a unique staking plan based on a horse’s winning chance. @ By Time of Year — HANDICAPS Early Season However, because the going, number of days since a horse last ran, choice of placings last time out, time of season, etc., play such an important part in the final selection of the favourite to be backed, it is strongly recommended that the following tables should be carefully examined. First Favourite Statistics for a 5-Year Period @ By Number of Runners — HANDICAPS SAMPLE WIN% “HANDICAPS Runners less than 5 114 50.0 Runners 5-7 1084 33.7 Runners 8-12 2746 275 Runners 12-15 2123 22.7 Runners 16 plus 1801 18.4 NON-HANDICAPS. Runners less than 5 553 57.1 Runners 5-7 2091 45.1 Runners 8-12 2862 37.2 Runners 12-15 1930 34.8 Runners 16 plus 1395 30.6 @ By Race Distance — HANDICAPS Distance less than 6.5f 2184 23.5 Distance 6.5 - 9.5f 2603 24.3 Distance 9.5 - 12.5f 2120 26.9 Distance 12.5 - 16.5F 785 216 ON-HANDICAPS Distance 16.5f plus 176 30.1 NON-HANDICAPS Distance less than 6.5f 3593 37.1 Distance 6.5 - 9.5f 2837 38.2 Distance 9.5 - 12.5f 1997 40.9 Distance 12.5 - 16.5f 344 46.8 Distance 16.5f plus 60 46.7 Sample 813 1057 1277 1542 1328 939 862 SO 1052 1294 1386 1632 1277 1086 1043 6l 255 74 2256 2096 1603 269 817 1002 2586 2359 1725 Win% 20.0 23.7 27.8 29.7 25.5 23.3 22.2 24.0 33.4 37.6 38.8 41.9 40.8 38.3 38.4 39.3 22.4 22.8 24.6 24.6 25.3 27.9 25.6 34.6 34.3 34.2 38.7 41.2 39.7 Rotkman's Winning Ways 13™@ By Days Since Last Ran — HANDICAPS. Sample Win% Less than 8 days ago 1361 29.3 Less than 16 days ago 2888 25.8 Less than 32 days ago 2555 23.5 . Less than 64 days ago 598 23.6 Less than 128 days ago 100 25.0 Less than 256 days ago 283 21:2) More than 255 days ago 54 20.4 Never run before n2 23.6 NON-HANDICAPS Less than 8 days ago 676 37.6 Less than 16 days ago 2477 37.5 Less than 32 days ago TTB 40.4 Less than 64 days ago 955 39.8 Less than 128 days ago 264 43.9 Less than 256 days ago 473 35.1 More than 255 days ago 125 43.2 Never run before 141 37.2 B By Previous Position — HANDICAPS: Previous position 1 2515 Previous position 2 1881 Previous position 3 1071 Previous position 4 683 Previous position 5 463 Previous position 6 331 Previous position 7 212 Previous position 8 167 Previous position 9 115 Previous position 9+ 401 Never run before 72 NON-HANDICAPS Previous position 1 1742 Previous position 2 2012 14 Rathman's Waning Ways 30.1 25.0 20.7 22.3 DOTS, 23.3 22.2 22.8 17.4 23.6 46.5 40.4 Previous position 3 1237 37.7 Previous position 4 833 36.1 Previous position 5 572 35.0 Previous position 6 377 33.4 evious position 7 283 32.5 evious position 8 178 36.5 ‘ious position 9 148 35.1 ‘jous position 9+ 366 26.2 sr run before 1142 37.2 Part Four ve always believed that one should stake according to the winning ince of a selection and I have devised a formula to that end, nmarised in two tables below. Table 1 lists showing the top 15 ‘courses from the point of view of all winning favourites. Table 2 lists rable and unfavourable races. But first of all there are one or two ther hints to be given with regard a horse’s winning chance on the basis hich we can formulate a concise plan for staking on any favourite we selected. ere is one remarkable thing about favourites that needs to be known and is the notable fact that the last race on the card yields a substantial mber of winners, quite apart from the type of race it is. This should be in mind. on sense informs us that no horse can be expected to go on winning lefinitely. Research reveals that very few horses ~ only one in five — win ice in succession, while only one winning horse in twelve goes on on to sister a hat-trick of victories. This means that if a system horse has already Jast time out (information which can be gained by looking at the horse’s figures, usually to be found on the left hand side of its name in the ing race-card) it would be wise to be more cautious in staking. here is an interesting exception to the rule which applies to two-year-old wes that are not selling races. In these events, a winner last time out is to respected, for these juveniles repeat victory in more than a third of their ses. If such horses are penalised and carrying weights above that allotted ihe other horses, the winning chance is better still by something like 10per cent. A glance down the race-card will reveal these “good things”. They : e seen from workings below that a system horse may have a usually carry nine stone or more. pcan be Ebel y y jpaximum value of 10 points, since four plus points can be added to the _ fyisle six points, The minimum total is two points, since four points can be _ ikon away from the basic six points. following example makes this clear: horse is called Sunlight, value 6 points. To sum up then, it will be seen that there are points for and against the system horse, all of which must be carefully considered before your money! is put down. 1 Table | Bath, Beverley, Brighton, Catterick, Chester, Edinburgh, Folkestone, Hamilton, Newcastle, Nottingham, Pontefract, Redcar, Ripon, Wolverhampton (AWT) and Yarmouth. Table 2 Favourable races: Most non-handicaps, especially 2-Y-O Stakes. % Unfavourable races: Handicaps, All-aged Sellers, Apprentice Races, Amateur Events. Points For: Running at a course with a good winning favourite %, plus I point. ¥ Engaged in a good type of race, plus I point. A two-year-old that won last time out, plus 7 point. Running in last race, plus J point. Total value: 10 points. Running at a course with a poor winning favourite %, minus J point. ¥ Engaged in a handicap, minus I point. In other than last race, minus I point. "A winner on last outing, but not a two-year-old, minus I point. Total value: 2 points. xamples although at the two extreme ends of the scales (points will om 10 right down to 2) illustrate the method of valuing a horse ding to the rules that are based on reasonable principles. Of course, it . appen that a horse of 10 points value will be beaten, while a horse of 6 X% Running at a meeting with a poor favourite record. value wins in a canter. But this does not upset the law of averages % = Running ina race with an unfavourable record. hich the rules are founded. X Running in other than the last race. : % A winner last time out other than a two-year-old. WY Running at a meeting with a reasonable favourite record. VY Running in a race with a favourable record. WY Running in the last race. V A two-year-old that has won last time out. Points Against: es/points plan that is eminently practical is as follows; split the points ih separate stakes as: | | Part Five \ covering 2, 3, 4 points. Stakes on the A section could be £1. | covering 5, 6, 7 points. Stakes on the B section could be £2. overing 8, 9, 10 points. Stakes on the C section could be £3. cial side of the matter depends on the means not the inclination of er. The logic to be appreciated is the highest point value horse will more often than the lowest: thus generally speaking, the higher stakes ‘be on the winners. When the loser does turn up, the stake will not be a 'y one. This is a better method than having a stake plan that increases or without any sound reason for the higher and lower amounts. An automatic staking plan can be based on points value, comments and the tables given in Part 4. At the outset a system horse is given a basic value of six points. ‘The next step is to check on the points for and against adding or deducting points as necessary. This is done so that a horse will have some visible value according to its logical chance of winning. The stake is based on its points value.@ the day, This, though, is no more than one would expect when being The Houghton System 4 somewhat more venturesome. What is more to my liking is that the whole | approach has been based upon simple racing logic, the sort with which I feel 1) will all appreciate. F" oF you will argue that a most impo! or ye pp : back-end fixture is Newmarket’s Houghto: ‘The Grade One courses to be used are: ie Meeting which is held in mid-October. Equally few of you will quarrel with the belief that pro quality is a commodity which has the habit of : reproducing itself. So here the two theories will be : amalgamated. Recognising that a horse has the ability to can only be carried-out with an appreciable degree of certainty by looki at its previous racecourse performances to see if it has alread: been successful. The most easily spotted acknowledgement of this fact is that the animal had been first past the post in its most recent outing. To that conviction can be added the self-evident impression that Newmark the headquarters of the racing industry, spells quality. Furthermore, seein; that quality does have a distinct tendency to attract quality more often than i does otherwise, it is more than likely that the average chance of success it any one of the races will be a last time win registered at a Group O: course. These will frequently be returned as the best backed animal in event. Carefully checking through the racing at the Houghton Meeting over th period 1984-93 (inc), it was found that 54 clear favourites with a Grade O: win to their credit last time out had appeared at this fixture. From these there had been 22 winners, and the financial outcome had been a pre-tax gain. However, had these selections been subjected to the simple arrangement of. one point on the first selection of any series, individual increases of a similar amount after a loser, maintaining the same level of staking after an odds-on winner, and reducing this level by a half point in the event of the winner not producing an overall profit, the position would have been improved enormously. Naturally, there would have been more risk attached to using the progression as outlined than there would have had strict level stakes been the order of Rothman's Winning Ways 19ail a number of races that can fairly easily be traced back. The Lingfield event is one such event and is now an established Key Race. Key Race Theory Oiher races that have proved rewarding to use in the Key Theory with ‘egard to the Derby are listed on the next page with the winning colts that f on to successfully negotiate Tattenham Corner and then stride out to be past the post at Epsom. The Classics oO" ‘THE years certain races have consistent! provided the key to unlocking the puzzle to finding winners of future events. The Key Theory is still talked about, but the backers have’ become increasingly confused as to its true significance doe to the growth of horseracing and consequent change of race names through the advent of sponsorship, ai nd the march of time. lown’s Guardian Classic Trial (formerly Royal Stakes) roy °80 Henbit °81 Shergar °86 Shahrastani ymarket’s General Accident 2,000 Guineas loyal Palace 68 Sir Iver °70 Nijinsky °89 Nashwan ter’s Dalham Chase Vase lenbit °81 Shergar k's William Hill Dante Stakes One of the best examples nowadays of how particular races can pinpoi . ° . 7 Pa thirley Heights *86 Shahrastani °87 Reference Point "94 Erhaab winners in coming events is Lingfield’s Calor Derby Trial which ha: produced more than half-a-dozen Epsom Derby winners since it inauguration in 1932 and three of those successes were recorded in the |: decade. In 1988 Kahyasi went on to win the Derby, as did Slip Anchor inl 1985 and in 1983 Teenoso scored at the Surrey track before taking the Turf's most prestigious Blue Riband. he Key Race Theory is not of course, infallible. Even its most ardent ins admit it has shortcomings. But it has worked out often enough in the st lo encourage some respect for the future. iS systemite must us his own judgement as to the class and quality of the ¢ that wins a Key Race. If, in his opinion, the winner looks a real good likely to go on to better things, or even have more potential than past ners of that Key Race then he can capitalise even more by taking ante- ‘odds about his choice. Many of the winners indicated by this system have been backed earlier on in the season at quite respectable odds. However, there was a slight difference about Teenoso’s victory. The name of the race at that time was called the Highland Spring Derby Trial and this is point that the system’s followers must bear in mind when they consider using the Key Race Theory. So many firms and companies now support! racing that many races which went under traditional titles for a great number of years have a change of name. ile in recent years the Charles Heidsieck Champagne Craven Stakes The Calor Derby Trial was known simply as the Derby Trial from pre~ iy at the first April meeting at Newmarket on the Rowley course has times until 1971 when sponsors began to appear. But some race titles have changed out of all recognition. One way of tracing these events for those readers who like to carry out their own investigations is to note at what: particular time of year the meeting is held. In the case of the Calor Derby] Trial, one finds the race has always been run at Lingfield’s opening Flat meeting. 86) and Shadeed (1985) - it is to the back-end of the previous season and Group | and 2 juvenile events that the Key Race theorists has to turn. Bae races are detailed below. Chimneys Dewhurst Stakes (7f), run at Newmarket in October. wgate Stud Middle Park Stakes (6f), run at Newmarket in October. went Perrier Champagne Stakes (6f), run at Doncaster in September. Patterns in racing do change and racecourse executives from time-to-time switch conditions especially in weight-for-age events. However, there are 20 Rothman's Winning Ways Rothman's Winning Ways 21@ GENERAL ACCIDENT 1,000 GUINEAS = Coral Eclipse The key race to keep an eye on in the previous year is the Group | Tattersa pe Lace (0-9-0) ee Cheveley Park Stakes (6f) run at Newmarket’s first October meeting. mee nd 1968 Royal Palace Nearer the date of the 1,000 Guineas, the Nell Gwyn Stakes (7f), also ru Mill Reef 1971 Mill Reef Newmarket in April, is a fair guide. Grundy 1972 Brigadier Gerard The Minstrel 1982 Kalaglow GOLD SEAL OAKS re 1986 Dancing Brave Newmarket’s 1,000 Guineas °85 Oh So Sharp °86 Midway Lady *90 Salsabil York’s Musidora Stakes °88 Diminuendo °89 Snow Bride - Generous ™@ HOLSTEN PILS ST LEGER CORAL ECLIPSE STAKES 1m 2f The Derby used to be a valuable guide, but since the emergence of the King “at Sandown in early July, The 1980s has been an excellent decade for George V1 and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes and France’s L’Are de ince of Wales’ Stakes as a Key Race for the Coral Eclipse. Run at Triomphe the higher-class animals have tended to miss out Doncaster’s. Ascot over Im 2f (the same distance as the Coral Eclipse) the Group stamina test in favour of the bigger prize-money on offer at Ascot and it has provided the following winners: ronsehans yal Palace. 70 Connaught, "72 Brigadier Gerard. Other Key Races °80 Ela-Mana-Mou. °87 Mto1o. 88 Mioto. Other Key Races @ KING GEORGE V1 & QUEEN ELIZABETH DIAMOND STAK) The Derby itself is a fine Key Race to the King George VI & Queer Elizabeth Stakes, a race, which, while not rated a Classic is one of the most. Prestigious events in the English racing calendar. It is worth arou £250,000 to the winner and run at Ascot over one-and-a-half miles in mi July. Shergar 1988 Mtoto Teenoso (4-Y-0) 1989 Nashwan Reference Point 1993 Opera House Nashwan “at York. Key Race: Park Hill Stakes run at Doncaster (1m 6f 127 yds) LIAM HILL STEWARDS CUP at Goodwood, Key Race: Wokingham Handieap run at Royal Ascot. OTTISH EQUITABLE GIMRACK STAKES York. Key Race: Coventry Stakes run at Royal Ascot. ING’S STAND STAKES (5f); TEMPLE STAKES (51) ‘at Royal Ascot and Sandown respectively. Both these five furlong are Key Races in the sense that the winner of the Temple has gone on the King’s Stand, but it has also been known for the King’s Stand r to collect the Sears Temple the following year. A number of Blue Riband winners have gone on to register victory in the King George VI as three-year-olds, while Royal Palace and Teenoso were, Victorious when a year older. And though it may surprise some teaders, Sandown’s Coral Eclipse Stakes over 10 furlongs has proved another good guide, with many owners and trainers quite confident that if their charges) could get the mile and a quarter in early July, they could manage a further two furlongs a fortnight or so later. 7 22 Rethman's Winning Ways . Rothman's Waning Ways — 23' i | 24 Special Key Race The Dual-Purpose Unity Plan LSEWHERE IN this book I have touched on the Bieieet of the Racing Analyst, describing in some detail how the genuine tipster spends his time searching for winners. In their efforts to find a winning selection, the majority of them will utilise their knowledge of handicapping, while others might use the time test and so on, each method within a boundary of rules. ‘This time I want to confine my remarks to a simple means of analysis, using the Dual purpose Unity Plan which, as its name suggests, can be operated both on the Flat and over the sticks. The fact that the Racing Post Trophy Stakes was formerly known as William Hill Futurity and then the Observer Gold Cup although it started life in 1961 as the Timeform Two-Year-Old Gold Cup gives some idea he sponsorship can change the name of a race. Its inauguration was in an effort to give trainers and the public some idea | how good a two-year-old was over the distance of 1m in top-class comps and its hopes for future middle-distance events. Prior to this, most juve! only raced over 5,6 or 7 furlongs and were often made Derby prospects even favourites on the name of their trainer and breeding. This assumption of course, should still be borne in mind in the 1990s to some degree, The race seems something of a disappointment at first glance with the winne being a rather mixed bunch, although many produced good form in theif second season without hitting the headlines. However, many of the runners: and also rans have gone on to win races of the highest order. m, though based on the same race every day, lays down a set of le rules for tackling the race according to type. The rules which have » evolved from a careful study of statistics, can be relied upon to produce 4 inners at all kind of prices. Actually, it doesn’t matter which race is chosen For instance, Apalachee trained by Vincent O’Brien in Ireland and ridden Jong as we stick to that race every day. Of course, if more bets a vane Lester Piggott, finished a two-year-old career by winning the Observer Gold two can be used - the first and the last race. Most punters preference wi Cup (as it was then named) after landing the odds in both his other races in his for the first, for they'll then get the result quicker. This may determine if they native land. In the Observer, Snow Knight, after a very indifferent juvenile season could only manage eighth place, but the following year Apalachee after winning the Group 3 Gladness Stakes at The Curragh at odds of 6-1 could not quicken in the 2,000 Guineas won by Nonoalco and did not again, finishing third at 4-9. Peter Nelson’s Snow Knight only won one race that season... the Derby at 50-1! ding the types of races to be found on the typical Flat and National Hunt yerammes, it will be noticed that although there are several types of events, ¥y can be divided mainly into two sections - handicaps and non-handicaps. yen the system race is found to be a non-handicap the bet is: ¢ point to win on the unnamed favourite and one point to win on the ast favourite. ill often happen that in actual practice both stakes are on the same horse. ul sometimes, the forecast favourite wins at a fair price and the SP favourite » wins at a price high enough to show a profit. In any case, the bet gives a ‘good margin of safety and the chance of a fair profit. he bet is made only when the race is clearly a non-handicap, for races of this. pe have made a better record than handicaps. ; 4 hen the system race is a handicap the bet is: One point to win on the 7 precast second favourite and one point to win on the forecast third jourite. Both bets cost two points. That sort of story is fairly commonplace with many of the race’s winner looking high-flyers, but failing to fulfil their promise. For example, in 1977 Dactylographer won, but Ile De Bourbon who finished 9th went on to win the King George VI and Queen Blizabeth Stakes in his second season. And fro! 1979 to 1981 ‘also rans’ won both the French Guineas and the Derby. It would appear that it is well worth while looking at the list of also-rans with a view to keeping a judicial eye on their form the following seasoi Obviously noting the quality of training and breeding should help the KE RACE enthusiast spot the good'un, Rothman's Winning Ways Rothuan's Winning Ways 2526 If working the first and last race each day, the bet on the last race is optional if the first has shown a profit. If the first race bet goes down, the system bets on 7 the last race can be for two points each. ° To Pay Tax or Not to Pay Tax? On winning bets it does not take a lot of brain power to work out OPHIONMG HE est te ONS ENON ONS that if Betting Tax is paid-on, the punter is better off. eee BETS On losing bets he is worse off. But reasoning should tell him that hen the system races are both non-handicaps, an opportunity is presented anyone who wins over a period of time should pay tax, but losing for a favourite double, both unnamed favourites being used. 4 ee ees 4 | know that is stating the obvious, but I suppose that when people place a t, they *hope’ to win and many of them will pay the tax, especially on When both races are handicaps, the system horses in the first race can be doubled with those in the last race in four doubles as: 4 — are al = " pets that have a potentially high return. ‘orecast 3rd fav x fav q F : ; Forecast 2nd fav x 3rd fav 4 ere is nothing worse than having a £1 Yankee that returns me via Forecast 3rd fay x 3rd fav ' ind having to pay the tax of £100, when it could have cost only initially, That is why the majority of punters pay tax. In this case with both races being likey to be won by non-favourites, the price | ow an alternative the punter can include the tax as part of the stake, bu' can more than compensate for the ‘wasted’ stakes, When there is more than one meeting on the day, punters might like to use the this gives a slightly lower return: favourites tables in selecting the meeting to be used, £10 Tax paid at 3-1 returns £40 = Profit of £29.00 ii ; i u £39.60 = Profit of £28.60 Wealth Warning i £11 Not Tax paid at 3-1 returns ane Le LEEL Let} It must be stated that in random testing, while the straight-forward version of the Unity Plan showed a profit on a number of occasions, the optional bets must be for the more adventurous punter and in any event, not suitable for late season betting when handicaps become extremely unpredictable. Punters should also remember that when there are joint 2nd and 3rd favourites stakes are split. Points To Check When Having A Bet Check the bookmaker’s limit Random Test On each-way doubles and upwards, check if the settlement will TT ran Brighton, May 1988 Haydock, June 1988 be win-to-win/place-to-place or equally divided. Ist Race 2nd Fav Won 5-1 Ist Race Forecast Favourite Won 9-4 | Ensure stakes have been calculated correctly Ist Race 3rd Fav Lost 1st Race Unnamed Favourite Won 9-4 . Id state the. Last race 2nd Fav Won 3-1 q Bets on unnamed favourites/second favourites should state Last Race 3rd Fav Lost meeting and the time. Profit 6pts Pre-tax Profit 4 1/2 Pre-tax — 27 Rothman's Wenuing WaysODDS AND STAKING TABLE Odds Stakes Odds Stakes Mor I1-1 15 points 22 or 23-1 7 points Group Plan for Big Handicaps ‘or MANY backers, experienced or otherwise Zor 13-1 13 otis 24 or 25-1 pear Nes in finding the winners of such big [4 or /5-1 12 points 26 or 27-1 Pees handicaps as the Lincoln, Cesarewitch, or 6 or 17-1 10 points 28 or aa ae Cambridgeshire. Even newspaper experts are 4 Wor 19-1 9 points 30 or 31- ae ue more often than not on the wrong one. Why? It is Mor 21-1 8 points 32 or 33-1 poi because in races of this type, luck and fate can play a _ multiple bet (or field bet as it is sometimes: called), should be made tremendous part and no one can take account of such factors. bout a week before the race takes place to avoid fluctuating prices and What is luck? One answer as far as I am concerned is having — confidence. I have found over the years that once doubt creeps: in, confidence creeps out. Luck changes for the worse. The best guide line for punters must be... if in doubt, don’t bet. One of the problems that may make you uneasy is that very ' often you are worried about a couple of dangers in the race. There's a horse entered that you have noted or followed earlier in the season, perhaps a trainer who has a good record in the ~ event, etc. Other methods of cutting down the field can be incorporated, such as noting ‘yorses that have not done the distance or not suited to the going, But the hints regarding Price, Weight and Age should be borne uppermost in mind. e diagrams below illustrate how the multiple bet is calculated: An intelligent backer can often pick three or four horses which may have a chance. In the big handicaps, prices are usually good and a bet can be struck at ante-post odds which will ensure a profit, provided the winner is in that group. The ~ Group Plan for Big Handicaps is the one to use in these circumstances. our selections have been taken at 10-1, 12-1, 14-1 and 20-1. With 1 point orth £1 that would be an outlay of £48 (15+13+12+8) according to the " staking table. In this example, as seen above, the 10-1 shot is first past the "post, which means the backer has £165 to collect (£15 on at 10-1). A profit _ of £117 (£165 minus stakes of £48) pre-tax, of course. First in the race you have studied, strike out from the Ante-post list all the — horses quoted above 33-1. Statistics prove that though favourites rarely win big handicaps, neither do real outsiders. Now and then there is a freak result, but that is rare. From the group remaining remove any horse in the veteran class (6-years- — old or more). The next step is to cut out all horses set to carry 9st or more. You will now have a reasonable group, say three to half-a-dozen, from which to make your selection, including one or two you really fancy. These can be covered ante-post according to the Odds And Staking Table set out below, which guarantees a return if a winner is found. 28 / Rethman's Winning Ways30 In this instance five selections have been taken at 10-1, 11-1, 14-1, 22-1 and | 33-1. With 50p a point that would be an outla , , a (15+15+12+7+5) or £27. The horse first past the post this time is returned at _ 33-1 so the backer collects £85 (£2.50 on at 33-1) for an outlay of £27, making a profit of £58 (£85 minus stakes of £27) pre-tax, of ed Backers should take care that the total poi } t points/stakes placed on the horses does not exceed 160, and in fact, should aim to stake under 100 points to make a worthwhile profit. 'y of 54 points” Rockman Winning Ways Ww Ww aie Law of Probability | Newcomers to betting and racing may not have heard of the “Law of Probability’, but it is an essential part of the stock-in-trade of the Ahoughtful systems operator. basis is a statistical approach to betting, allied to current form, much ore conducive to bringing reward than dealing with the ‘Law of erages”. is, in short, an insurance against bad bets! ‘ake a simple example. A punter likes to bet favourites in doubles. He is ced with a twin programme, racing at Newbury and at Pontefract. ore often than not the punter will opt for the principal meeting, “especially if the racing looks appetising. In this particular case, Newbury Jooks the right choice to make. “But over the last five years seasons in all flat races, Newbury has only had a 35.04 percentage of winning favourites, whereas Pontefract has recorded 39.24 per cent. ‘That clearly indicates Pontefract is likely to be a better bet in this _ particular case. But taking the ‘Law of Probability’ a step further, what if ‘one of the races in question is a non-handicap? Perusing the applicable favourite table, the punter finds that Pontefract has a win percentage of 46.03 in all non-handicap races in non- handicaps, while Newbury’s haul stands at only 41.11. There’s no doubt where the choice lies!i Jiere are disadvantages of course, but the main thing to remember is not to The Hire Purchase Plan FF pick animals that have never run before or have a dodgy history. ‘eltenham’s Champion Hurdle has a good record and one can always. WAS whil ing i i i , f Tame aes et ee aan at al “hen there are a number of the Cup Taces where horses return to the scene of Hire Purchase Plan. iy victory at least once, if not twice in their careers. Most racing heads will tell you that just following _ xamples one horse in a season is boring and not their cup — Champion Queen Mother of tea. But this was far from the case for one betting shop — Cup Hurdle Champion Chase cient I) Le Moss 1978 Monksfield 1978 Hilly Way He had decided that Red Rum was going to win the 1976 0 Le Moss 1979 Monksfield 1979 Hilly Way Grand National and this is what he did: os) Ardross 1980 Sea Pigeon 1983 Badsworth Boy Instead of waiting for the big day at Aintree he decided to put his usual 4 OH2 Ardross 1981 Sea Pigeon 1984 Badsworth Boy ‘Saturday Sum’ on Rummy instead. He started well before the race was due _ OBA Gildoran 1895 See You Then 1985 Badsworth Boy to be run and placed a couple of quid each week on the horse ante-post and ~ WBS Gildoran 1986 See You Then 1987 Pearlyman finally the last bet on Saturday, 19 April 1976. | BB Sadeem 1987 See You Then 1988 Pearlyman ORO Sadeem 1989 Barnbrook Again The result was a handy reward of a four-figure sum for what many would 5 s 92 Drum Taps call a one-horse bet! 3. Drum Taps Have a think about the number of good-class horses that have gone on to complete a double in big races. One can easily see that there are — possibilities. a Firstly, while one would not be too keen to splash out £50-plus on a horse straight off, a couple of quid — weekly is hardly going to be missed. a Secondly, there is a good chance that the price will be a pretty fair one to start off with and while a shorter | price will have to be taken in most circumstances as the big day draws nearer, at least one usually has the satisfaction of having beaten the bookies at one stage of the betting. a Thirdly, if the bet does come off, there is a sizeable pay-day in store. 32 Rethman's Winning Ways | Rothman's Winning Ways 33With an average starting price for all selections of over 8-1, the strike-rate of yore than 22% has yielded a £10 pre-tax profit of close on £200. Returns ike this cannot be all that bad for simply supporting horses that have never _hwen beaten. }. For doubters of the proposal, I would like to remind tham that in 1973, hur Budgett’s chestnut colt, Morston, landed the Derby after only two feated outings. On that occasion the starting price was 25-1, and with inners odds like these, no-one minds a few losers! The Blue Riband Special A Soneacur FROM whom | learned so mucl of my trade once offered me a timeless piec of advice when he said, “Continue to back three- year old that is unbeaten in its career, until such a time as it loses!” There it is, blunt an short, rather like the man himself, but what a invaluable recommendation this has turned out to be over the years. Since 1985, this wonderfully succinct example of absolute racing logic stood in good stead many sustematically minded punters, myself included so far as the Epsom Derby is concerned with the following results: Season Qualifier Result 1986 Dancing Brave 2nd 2-1 Allez Milord 10th 8-1 1987 Sadjiyd 8th = 11-2 Legal Bid 14th 8-1 1988 Kahyasi Won 11-1 Doyoun 3rd 9-1 1989 Nashwan Won 5-4 He de Nisky 3rd 20-1 1990 Razeen 14th = 9-2 1991 Hector Protector 4th 6-1 1992 No Qualifier - a 1993 Commander in Chief Won 15-2 Tenby Sth 45 1994 Linney Head 10th = 8-1 1995 Lammtarra Won 14-1 Tamure 2nd 9-1 Humbel 8th = 25-1 Pennekamp Mth 11-8 Spectrum 13th 5-1 34 Rethnan's Weaning Ways Zothman's Waning Ways 35HERE IS a special magic about the Epso m Derby. People who rarely think of racing al the year round fall under i g race draws near. But while it is of course, the Riband of the Turf, it is only one of five Classi events that dominate the British Racing scene. Most backel are tempted to try their luck at finding the winner of events, but betting indiscriminately upon the first three events, the 1,000 Guineas, 2,000 Guineas and the Derby, can be hazardous affair. Time after time the favourites and ne favourites in these three races haye fallen by the wayside for variety of reasons. Many a punter has taken ante-post odds December or January about a good thing in one of thes Classics only to regret it a couple of months later when thos e dreaded words ‘scratched from all engagements’ havi appeared in his morning paper. Having read all this, the backer could be forgiven for thinking that having a bet on the favourite in a Classic is an utter wast of time. This is not so. But one special clause must be inser ed to enable him to capitalise on one of the best and soundest systems in racing. The punter who is prepared to back ti unnamed favourite in the Classics will show a profit almost yea in-year-out. Almost without fail, at least one of the Class season by a favourite, The Annual Classic Profit Plan operates as follows: Back the unnamet favourite in the first Classic (1,000 Guineas). If it does not win, back th unnamed favourite in the second Classic (2,000 Guineas). If this fails to succeed back the unnamed favourite in the third Cla: (The Derby) and so on until a winner turns up. It must be stressed however, that in recent years many pre-race favourites have hit the dust in the run up to the various Classic races. Some years ago @ favourite could be forecast with some certainty, but nowadays tl Sun Princess 11-8 Reference Point 4-11 Commanche run 7-4 Michelozzo 6-4 Oh So Sharp 8-11 Bob’s Return 3-1 User Friendly 7-4 Toulon 5-2 St Leger y Lady 15-8 Diminuendo 7-4 Oh So Sharp 6-4 Blue Wind 3-1jt Oaks Salsabil 2-1 Aliysa 11-10 Midway Reference Point 6-4 Slip Anchor 9-4 Derby Erhaab 7-2 Nashwan 5-4 Teenoso 9-2 Golde Shergar 10-11 Underlined horse was that season's first winning Classic favourite. enor 15-8 icing Brave 15-8 2,000 Guineas Zafonic 5-6 Nashwan 3-1 Doyoun Shadeed 4-5 4 ue 15- vinell Oh So Sharp 2-1 1,000 Guineas Sal Mi 1981 Fairy Fottsteps 6-4 To-Agori-Mou 5-2 1983 Ma Biche 5-2 1994 1993 1992 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1982 |) WINNING FAVOURITES IN THE ANNUAL CLASSIC PROFIT PLAN Rothman's Winning Ways ? Icompetition is that much hotter and it would be unwise to try to snatch a fe extra points by taking one of the favourites at ante-post. Only once in { last 14 years would the backer have been obliged to proceed beyond ———— ie Words of Wisdom One would not think that what happens at the dog track is related to any | degree to what can happen on a racecourse. But a paragraph written | ‘several tears ago by a colleague specialising in dog tips has stuck in my | mind ever since. If I can recall correctly, the wording was: “Contrary to _ popular belief most bookmakers are not great judges of races.” Derby to find a winner! Followers of this plan might like to win a fixed amount according to prices obtainable, but I do not recommend this approach as these ‘ctl events always attract heavy last-minute betting turnover. The resultin fluctuation of odds makes the task of taking the best bets somewh complicated . ‘Strangely enough, it normally takes the layer a couple of races to “ppreciate the rain-softened ground and as result punters who spot the difference and have their wits about them can often obtain wonderful ‘alue for money. A better proposition would be to use a simple points plan as follows ; point (one point can be any set monetary value) Ist Classic ts x 4 poins 2nd Classic 6 points 3rd Classic 9 points 4th Classic vas Sth Classic ¢ point was emphasised at a meeting at York back in 1983 which was mmething of a quagmire of a meeting. Henry Cecil’s Dunbeath with ster Piggott aboard was all the rage and at one stage was 6-4 on, later dening even further to finish 2-1 on. was beaten more than 10 lengths by Harry Wragg’s Hot Touch after ‘Lester found that the going was too bad to risk pushing Dunbeath too hard. The best thoroughbreds cost thousands of pounds, with some yearlings oing for millions in the auction ring: it is not surprising jockeys aren’t _ keen to push their charges too far if the going gets sticky. in analysing past form, your judgement has to be centred on weights ‘arried and distances won. I suggest that first and seconds be given the | ireatest consideration. e rule that horses must be ridden out for places is not always strictly ibserved and certainly many a horse has finished Sth and 4th when it “should have got a place. But conversely, many thirds have been placed “When they would have been further in the rear if the horses behind had | been real’y trying for a place. _ So while some credence can usually be placed on the leading pair, their- Placed animals can prove to be an unrelaible bunch. Rorkman's Winning Ways 3940 Top Wy Bets the Bookies Don’t Like Most bookmakers will tell you that they don't mind what kind of bet you have as long as it’s with money. That is not strictly true. There are certain bets the satchel-men are not particularly keen on. Here are two: Bookie-Basher Number One In non-handicaps where the favourite is odds-on and there are only two or three horses have a realistic chance of either winning or being placed, punters should think about a bet each-way on the named second and third | favourite. Example: S.P. 2/7, 5/1, 6/1, 33/1, 33/1, 50/1, 100/1 (8rnrs). Each way on the 5/1 and/or 6/1 represents good value for the punter as they | both look certain to be placed and one of them could possibly win. At 1/5th | the odds a place, the stake money looks certain to be returned and a small | loss will be made due to the tax. The S.P. represents the chance of a horse q winning the race, not of finishing in the first three and years ago in the | Classic races special ‘place’ betting used to apply, but this has long since been ‘kicked into touch’ - good value! / Bookie-Basher Number Two In three-runner races where the betting indicates a foregone conclusion, a ] oe straight forecast (CSF) will nearly always return more than a win | single. Example: 2/9, 7/2, 33/1. On the method of arriving at the forecast dividend (approximately 1 point added to the price of the 2nd multiplied by the S.P. of the winner) this would give the following: 9/2 x 2/9 which cancels out to evens. And remember that there is no tax deduction — tremendous value! Rechman's Whuning Ways | Staking Plans the start of this book) is founded on the principle of well-established facts and figures, no staking plan will ever prove successful unless the selection process is basically sound. Most staking plans are built sequences with two options, either increasing the stakes after a winner, or after a loser. Jin: AS The Fundamental System (outlined at But is this idea sensible? It has always seemed to me that we should stake according to the winning chance of a horse when following a plan of backing one horse a day. | am more of the opinion that a properly balanced staking chart should be drawn up and this is what I have actually produced in The Fundamental System. The cleverest staking plan in the world is useless without a decent pattern of winners, but it is also true to say that even with a 50 per cent flow of winners there can be a severe loss if the staking plans are like the pans of a scale; they should balance one another. Nevertheless, punters have derived much satisfaction from delving into the traditional staking methods. Here are some that have stood the test of time. @ The 50 Point Plan | have just criticised the idea of increasing stakes on sequences, but this plan has much to recommend it. We set down 50 points and we bet 10% of it / ‘Phat technique is familiar enough, many punters have used the idea before |" with a bank of 100 points, for example But an extension has been added. If the bet loses, the stake that has been lost | js added to the bank and 1/10th is staked again. If this loses, the process is _ the same. But when a winner turns up, the amount won is deducted from the Zothman's Weaning Ways 4)42 Should that deduction reduce the bank to below 50 points, a line is d je haps table ble towards the end of the season he co under the transaction a co. ind a new bank i: in front. This is a winning coup. is opened, for the backer must “yd nap a big outsider. ‘Phere is no denying that racing correspondents do like ces, simply because its “good news’ for the papers to be able to claim that jheir tipster found the outsider. ow and again the tipster pulls it off. But on the whole, it is wiser to follow. » more cautious newspaper researcher. Many years ago when I first ecame interested in racing and involved in newspaper work, I found that to nap winners of big If the si sum won does not put the bank below 50 points, then 10% bank is staked agai gain, and s & operations: ang Se on. The following example explain THE 50 POINT PLAN (EI per point) fines Sie Rat ag Wi 10 of 55 5.50 a suo une of the so-called ‘wide boys’ would poke fun at one of the paper’s 1/10 of 60.05 6.05 fara ~3.50 (10.50) sters because they claimed they could always tell what horse he was INO of 66.55 6.65 Won 2-1 79.05 (16.55) ng to nap by picking the shortest-priced horse in the betting forecast. 13.30 - +1330 hey were right in guessing the correct selection, but wrong in lampooning tipster. He was never far away from the top of the naps’ table and had a INO of 53.25 5.32 . ae Won 6- mn 6-4 +7.98 (21, ry consistent scoring rate of winners. and so many backers 7.98 45. P . Anat ving said that, the prices were, of course, quite short .d to supplement their bets by picking two outsiders to go with it in a Coup Wins £4.73 (£21.28 - £16.55) I reble. Refore we look at four staking plans often associated with nap selections or st bets of the day, punters should remember that while not many of the sistent success in napping winners, the record of the election’ as it is sometimes called — he years. The daily naps of all the arried in both the Racing Post and method and any series of bets that ee show neither profit nor loss wi ae on ae there are few, if any other suchlike i wich aa ° Sees will derive both pleasure and profit fr : siirigboeees paper, and writing out various Sequences of losi: a , before putting the plan into practice. ms tipsters can claim con: ost tipped horse — or “most popular st js been quite remarkably good over st-known racing correspondents are cé 1e Sporting Life. ¢ ‘most popular selection’ horse has formed the foundation of numerous the high winning percentage and the short losing runs, le the punter to show @ Nap Staking Plans Several sound systems have been based on the selections of newspay s experts and many backers follow the n: ips of their favourite corresponde: e nay fe ystems because of ut of course, a staking system needs to be used to enabl ry real profit. favourite system with backers of these horses is to increase the stakes on winning runs, returning to | point after a loser: The increase is usually up ( some set point thus: WWwWwwwoerterbtwwwe L Po12344412121 12 3 4 1 ‘Another method is to increase on the losing runs, returning t0 1 point after a ‘nner. This is to ensure the highest stake being on the winner thus: One important point should be held ii systems and that is in mind when using thes ing their arm on eee eer cite racing scribes are ore : eee ano quite often with a big field of runners which very often is a tricky handicap wi : It pays to remember that if a scribe be ing followed is loitering at the foot 0 s t Rathman's Waning Ways — Rothman's Weaning 43LLLLUw 1 -= -=z fo ve we tu a = for a moment let us consider these two simple staking plans. We can never be sure when (if ever) a list horse will win nor can we guess how many list horses may be running during the same week. There may be several if the list is a big one. Furthermore we do not know in advance in what company we may find a list horse, so we cannot be sure what the winning chance is likely to be. In view of these facts it must seem that both staking systems are open to much criticism. If we backed a list horse on level stakes (say twice and on its third appearance it is found to be a strong favourite in a non-handicap - race (obviously the goods) and likely to score at evens to 6-4, where is the sense in backing it again with a level stake? if the horse wins there will be a __ loss on the transaction. _ Now let us assume we follow a list horse with advancing stakes, thus: ~ 1.1,2,2,3,3. On the third or fourth outing we find the horse well down in the | betting forecast and strongly opposed by two or three live chances, are we justified in putting down two or three points? The horse might have cost four points in stakes to date and to get this back we want him home at 2-1 for a two point stake, or 4-1 for one-point stake; but he is likely to start about 8’s - and he has no serious chance. How do we bet? Do we _ mechanically put down the system stake? You see, it is all very well to frame staking plans in advance for list horses, _ but on the day they run, there might be many reasons for a change of plan. Furthermore, there might be several list horses on the programme, or even in _ the same race. I do not think any serious backer can determine, in advance, how f course, the m mre is also the so-called pyramid staking’ in which the stakes rise on the ig tun and then begin to fall so that the smaller stakes are on when : | Tun is about to end, thus: 4 WWWWWLLLWWOo 1 1 1232124141 41 12 3 re is the Weekly Profit Plan which is based on the assumption that ‘orrespondent is able to pick at least one wi i « corre s inner in a week. winner is picked early on in the week, the punter has the option of coil ‘ on until the six days are up, by i i aver aay Ip, by returning to one point or ending the coup The week's staking utilises 10 pts and goes thus: Da 123 4 5 6 Stake 1 1 1 2 2 3 “ we a my es pen spilt over the merits and demerits of these stakit s - T lee lem to individual investigation afte: i Personal preference is shaded in the direction of the pyramid oe * Ss. ae nen ra tee fo win fair profit from tips given in ordinary dai 7 ey usually take other factors inti Se aeate ¢ into account. For exampl y ipped in non-handicaps, 2 ite i betting forecast, not ex i ee b, ‘ceeding 6-4, Form figures or wei | , weights, simple fundamental procedures, But a staking plan is also hoe | Frankly, he will stake on a list horse. It all depends on circumstances. O _ position is different when we are operating on S.P. favourites, forecast favourites and similar good things, for we not determined in advance the stake for an individual horse; we are actually planning on winning chances _ which will remain fairly constant. To follow any horse up and down dale for a predetermined stake is hardly to be classed as intelligent planned betting. What alternative is there? The obvious one is to stake according to our "estimate of the winning chance and the probable starting price. If, for _ example, a horse has already cost two points and is now a good thing, a The Floating Stake Plan for a List to Follow Almos cl i Amest ies pucker has at sometime or other compiled a list of horses I. ‘s¢ lists are usually beaten favourites, wi : ow. T i ‘s, winners i horses with special Form qualifications. * ofeenin ees each time a list horse runs; and (2) stakes that advance until a win whe each winner is struck from the list. There are other methods, of course, but 44 Rethmau's Weaning Ways — ' q : Rothman's Winning Wags 45forecast to start about evens, the stake should be at least three points. If the other hand, a horse has cost five points and is not so strongly fencer : likely to start about 8's, one point would be the best stake, for this wo bring a profit in the event of success. While in the more likely event failure, there would only be a one point loss. n tre event of two horses running in the same race one could support ‘© shortest-priced or split stakes, based on f s forecast S{ would result if either won. Peet Much depends on the backer’s aim when making his list. If he is det to make a clear profit from each horse hi ¢ will naturally have to take i account the amount each horse has cost at the time of betting so that h stake can win this back, plus some profit. poet backers of list horses are content to get a profit on one stake on lay, regardless of what has gone before. They trust sufficient of the horses will win soon enough and at prices high enough to ensure a genera profit when each has been struck from the list. It is not possible to say in advance which is the better policy. If the proves very successful, the first method of betting is likely to be mi profitable; if the list proves unsatisfactory, the second method is likely to b Tess expensive. The question of betting on a list is much more complex than appears at sight. To me the solution seems to lie in betting according to the estimat winning chance so that the best stakes are on when the chance is highest, and the smallest stakes, when the chance is lowest. This plan is rather happy medium betw: i i aE reer eae ‘een absolute level stakes and betting to win a fi What is lost on the swings can often be won on the roundabouts! Two methods of listing horses are detailed on the following pages ... Rethman's Wnuing Ways Handicaps are notoriously the most difficult races to solve, for the simple reason that the weights have been expertly adjusted so as to give each horse an equal chance. Nevertheless, the relatively high average prices returned against the winner of this type of race provides a never-ending attraction for punters and also leaves some room for manoeuvre odds-wise. onl Statistics show at once that it is no use juggling with favourites if any profit is to be made from betting in handicaps. In the majority of cases the ~ handicapper has largely succeeded in his task and several horses in the race will have the same chance of winning. To bet regularly on the shortest- priced of these is obviously the wrong procedure. The factor which most often beats the handicapper is that elusive quality called class. Far more often than not, if a high-class horse runs in a handicap he will be thereabouts regardless of the weight. The On-Top Plan spotlights horses in handicaps. You need first a copy of the Free Handicap for Three-Year-Olds, published at the end of the season. It represents the official handicappers’ estimate of the second-season horses and is usually headed by the winner of the Derby. You are very unlikely to find the winner of the Derby competing in handicaps as a four-year-old, although there may come a time when the _ huge sums on offer from overseas will make it an offer the owners will not be able to refuse! _ Normally, the Derby winners are syndicated to stud, but the fact that the ~ winner of the Blue Riband is among the entries is further evidence that any ~ horse given more than 8st in this very choice handicap is a very high-class animal. ‘To have an assessment in the Free Handicap list, the horse must have shown. _ good quality as a three-year-old. The first move then is to make an alphabetical list of three horses weighted at 8st or over in the Free Handicap for Three-Year-Olds, keeping in mind, however, that the official list is split into five sections: f+ Tf Of Im 3f+ and Im oft _ The idea is that you keep to one section, but obviously, you could if you I list. Zothman's Weaning Wayswish take a trio from any or all, of the distances if you wanted. If a horse is running in a handicap i r ip it must be backed provi iti of the three highest-weighted of the probable runners Provided that its 0 is we bas wwe pees Firstly, it cuts down the number of bets. In su Handicap there could easily be hal f ‘ i ; k ly alf-a-dozen or mo! a list running. Secondly, it guards against the deteriorating horse, the anil slipping down the handicap because it is not as good as it was. 4 If clashing occurs, all the selections must be backed, but clearly, than three can i i ii than qualify and this will only happen in the case of not mo a few big. It is in the smaller type of handicay Successful, the race in which a modest performers. p that this system can prove m good-class horse opposes a field of mor i ige at a surprisingly good price and ma’ re top weight, some lower-grade performer with a run of rece y ocoeed eing ranked above him. ot eS This method also tends to do best when the going is firm. In thes ci ight fi i ircumstances backers might like to consider increasing their stakes a trifle. High Grade Handicap List This method provides a list of high-grade handicappers who should normally be capable of winning a couple of races during the season. Though these horses will always be found well up in the weights, their trainers can be relied upon to find winning opportunities for them. Often they appear to have plenty to do at the weights, but their class will pull them through. The High Grade Handicap List is formed from a batch of big handicaps taking place early in the season. Listed horses are backed until their total bag for the season is nvo races. If when they qualify for the list they have already won one race, they are backed to win one more. Any horse that has already won twice would not be selected. From the selected list of handicaps given below, pick from horses carrying 8st 101b or more. Too much emphasis should not be placed upon where they finish, or if they are ridden by an apprentice. @ Lincoln Handicap (Donacaster First Meeting) ® Victoria Cup Handicap (First Ascot Meeting) @ Jubilee Handicap (Kempton Park May Meeting) Systemites following this method could also include other handicaps (preferably 0-110 ratings) taking place before mid-May. Alternatives include: Wheelers Restaurant Handicap (Sandown April Meeting) Norwest Holt Trophy Handicap (York May Meeting) @ = Thirsk Hunt Cup (Thirsk May Meeting) Punters should bear in mind the philosophy of the Floating Stake Plan when considering any form of stake manipulation. they may also like to consider that the season is usually accepted to run in three sections Early, Middle and Late. Some Horses do well in the early part of the season and then fade until the Autumn when they often re-appear refreshed by the mid-season Rothman's Winning Ways 49rest. In The Betting Mart Tee APPEARS to be no doubt that compared with the halcyon post-war era backing favourites is not the good thing it used to be. Nevertheless, it is still the best and most useful instrument at the punter’s disposal. Favourite tables are based on historical records, a method of compilation that has stood the test of time. While newer bookmaking techniques have become more and more sophisticated, helped by the age of electronics and very big strides in communications, it behoves the punter to strive all the greater to get the best out of the information he has at his disposal. Further on in this book several favourite tables are printed with winning percentages at the tracks with the best records and these can be very useful in calculating the chances of backing a winning market favourite. But that should not be the end of the story for the punter in his efforts to beat the book. For example, in the first page of tables, one learns that while the first favourite leads each list, these percentages can be further enhanced by linking them with the second and third favourites. For instance figures as high as 69% can be gained in the Two- Year-Old department. In other words, 69% of winning juvenile favourites come from the first three in the betting. According to our table of market positions for non-handicaps, the first five in the betting forecast at starting price odds, provides more than 70 per cent of winners Punters must not, however, jump to the wrong conclusion, for bookmakers have continued to erode margins for the last two decades and are quite aware of these situations. Backing all first, second or third favourites would not show a level stake profit. What has to be done is to sort out the best type of event to back in the best tables. Several agencies can be used in this direction, as defined below: PLACINGS One such area of assistance is placings. It can be assumed for instance, that a horse placed in the first three last time out, wins more races than those that finished fourth or unplaced. Rochman's Wuntuy Ways 5AHere is a list of over the years: 2 12) ‘last three’ placings that have appeared to have fared well 211 221 As far as those animals with placings seem to do best: i 21 31 DISTANCES A horse that won by a head or neck has a 33% Cin3, Score next time out. Other distances: 122, 113° 13133] Just two figures to their name, the following - ) chance of going on to. T length 17 or 18% 2 lengths 20% 3 lengths 25% AGES A rule of thumb when it comes to deciding what age category is best _ favourite-wise is to remember 2 is better than 3 and 3 is better than 4! a It is fairly generally accepted that juveniles are a better betting medium than second-season horses, who in turn normally represent a better proposition in ‘ the market than older horses, Punters must remember that these are only loose interpretations and the type of race has to be taken into account. 4 ‘Three-year-olds have hardly had a look-in as far as Newbury’s Lockinge Stakes is concerned and four-year-olds have had a lean time in the Ascot Gold Cup. The second season horses, however, have done well in Sandown’s Eclipse Stakes and the King George V1 and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot, and — when this is taken into consideration with the favourite record in those 4 Particular races, winners can be spotted. In fact, I would go on record as _ saying that the age-favourite link is quite underrated. SIZE OF FIELD Normally, the size of the field has a bearing on the margin/profit a bookmaker can take out of his book, so it stands to reason that as a rule smaller fields will generate better odds in favour of the Punter, going up a few per cent in a 12- runner field up to more than 5% gains in fields of eight runners. Retiman's Waning Ways ALL WINNING FAVOURITES (1990-94) wOoIauawn— Numerical Order Edinburgh 43.08 Catterick 39,96 | Hamilton 39.69 | Pontefract 39.24 Folkestone 38.96 Wolverhampton (AWT) 38.17 | Brighton 38.16 Chester 38.03 | Newcastle 37.44 Ripon 37.20 Nottingham 37.14 | Beverley 36.87 Yarmouth 36.79 | Redcar 36.76 | Bath 36.50 | Ayr 36.10 | Newmarket (July Course) 36.02 Chepstow 35.87 Southwell (AWT) 35.08 Newbury 35.04 Thirsk 34.50 Windsor 34.08 Lingfield (Turf) 8 i York | Leicester 33.52 | Lingfield (AWT) 33.50 | Warwick 33.18 Doncaster 33.02 | Sandown 32.89 | Carlisle 32.50 Salisbury 32.16 | Goodwood 32212) Newmarket (Rowley Mile) 31.36 j Haydock 31.03 | Ascot 30.62 Epsom 29.91 | Kempton 28.60 | Alphabetical Order Ascot Ayr Bath Beverley Brighton Carlisle Catterick Chepstow Chester Doncaster Edinburgh Epsom Folkestone Goodwood Hamilton Haydock Kempton Leicester Lingfield (Turf) Lingfield (AWT) Newbury Newcastle Newmarket (Rowley Mile) Newmarket (July Course) Nottingham Pontefract Redcar Ripon Salisbury Sandown Southwell (AWT) Thirsk Warwick Windsor Wolverhampton (AWT) Yarmouth York54 ALL HANDICAP WINNING FAVOURITES (1990-94) | 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Numerical Order Wolverhampton (AWT) Edinburgh Hamilton Pontefract Folkestone Redcar Chepstow Brighton Beverley 10 Lingfield (AWT) Ayr 12 Newcastle 13 York 14 Southwell (AWT) 15 16 17 18 19 20 Sandown Newbury Yarmouth Ripon Doncaster Lingfield (Turf) 21= Chester 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Newmarket (July Course) 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Newmarket (Rowley Mile) 37 Windsor Bath Catterick Carlisle Nottingham Warwick Thirsk Salisbury Leicester Kempton Goodwood Haydock Epsom Ascot Alphabetical Order 35.20 | Ascot 32.81 Ayr 32.46 Bath 32.40 Beverley 31.88 Brighton 31.21 | Carlisle 31.17 | Catterick 30.51 Chepstow 30.11 Chester 29.76 Doncaster 29.73 Edinburgh 29.61 Epsom 29.11 Folkestone 29.09 Goodwood 28.18 Hamilton 27.52. Haydock 27.45 Kempton 27.44 Leicester 27.09 Lingfield (Turf) 26.56 Lingfield (AWT) 26.49 Newbury 26.49 Newcastle 26.47 Newmarket (Rowley Mile) 26.40 Newmarket (July Course) 25.56 Nottingham 25.00 Pontefract 24.88 Redcar 23.63 | Ripon 23.56 Salisbury 23.50 Sandown 22.56 Southwell (AWT) 21.43 Thirsk 21.09 Warwick 20.28 Windsor 20.00 Wolverhampton (AWT) 19.63 Yarmouth 18.79 York Rothman's Winning Ways 2-YEAR OLD HANDICAP WINNING FAVOURITES (1990-94) 37 Carlisle (no applicable races) Numerical Order Alphabetical Order 1 Epsom 100.0 | Ascot 2 Salisbury 66.67 Ayr 3. Edinburgh 50.00 Bath 4 Chepstow 45.45 Beverley 5 Folkestone 44.44 Brighton 6 Lingfield (Turf) 42.86 Carlisle 7 Yarmouth 42.31 Catterick 8= Bath 40.00 | Chepstow Newmarket (July Course) 40.00 | Chester 10 Catterick 38.39 | Doncaster 11 Newbury 38.10 Edinburgh 12 Kempton 35.71 Epsom 13 Brighton 35.29 | Folkestone 14 Redcar 34.62 Goodwood 15 Hamilton 33.33 Hamilton 16 Pontefract 31.82 Haydock 17 Southwell (AWT) 31.43 Kempton 18 Thirsk 31.25 Leicester 19 Leicester 30.77 Lingfield (Turf) 20 Ayr 30.43 Lingfield (AWT) 21 Lingfield (AWT) 30.00 Newbury 22= Newcastle 28.57 Newcastle Warwick 28.57 Newmarket (Rowley Mile) 24 Windsor 27.27 Newmarket (July Course) 25 Beverley 26.67 Nottingham 26= Nottingham 25.00 Pontefract Wolverhampton (AWT) 25.00 Redcar 28 Goodwood 23.33 | Ripon 29 Chester 21.43 Salisbury 30 Doncaster 21.21 Sandown 31 York 18.52 | Southwell (AWT) 32 Haydock 13.64 Thirsk 33= Newmarket (Rowley Mile) 12.50 Warwick Ripon 12.50 | Windsor 35 Sandown 10.00 Wolverhampton (AWT) 36 Ascot 00.00 Yarmouth York 36 20 8= 25 13 37 10 4 29 30 3 | 5 28 15 32 12 19 6 21 uw 22= 26= 16 14 33= ~~ Bochaman's Winniag Ways i2 Edinburgh 3° Chepstow 4 Thirsk 5 Folkestone 6= Lingfield (AWT) Pontefract Warwick 9 Hamilton 10 Salisbury II Carlisle 12 Bath 13 Newcastle 14 Redcar 15 Brighton 16 Southwell (AWT) 17 Kempton 18 Sandown 19 Lingfield (Turf) 20 Beverley 21 Catterick 22 > York 23 Ripon 24 Nottingham 25 Ayr 26 Chester 27° Yarmouth 28 Newbury 29 Leicester 30 Doncaster 31 Windsor 32 Epsom 34 Goodwood 35 Haydock 37 Ascot Numerical Order | Wolverhampton (AWT) 33 Newmarket (July Course) 36 Newmarket (Rowley Mile) Alphabetical Order 50.00 | Ascor 48.00 Ayr 42.86 Bath 38.46 Beverley 37.84 Brighton 35.90 Carlisle 35.90 | Catterick 35.90 Chepstow 35.29 Chester 35.14 Doncaster 35.00 Edinburgh 34.78 Epsom 34.10 Folkestone 33.33 Goodwood 32.73 | Hamilton 31.53 Haydock 31.25 Kempton 29.88 | Leicester 29.79 | Lingfield (Turf) 29.31 Lingfield (AWT) 29.09 Newbury 28.57 Newcastle 27.87 Newmarket (Rowley Mile) 26.79 | Newmarket (July Course) 26.67 Nottingham 25.71 | Pontefract 25.58 | Redcar 25.00 Ripon 24.49 Salisbury 23.64 Sandown 23.21 Southwell (AWT) 22.86 Thirsk 21.43 Warwick 17.65 Windsor 17.54 Wolverhampton (AWT) 11.76 Yarmouth 10.34 York 3-YEAR OLD HANDICAP WINNING FAVOURITES. (1990-94) 37 25 iW ALL-AGED HANDICAP WINNING FAVOURITES (1990-94) Numerical Order Alphabetical Order 1 Wolverhampton (AWT) 33.33 | Ascot 27 2° Pontefract 31.75 Ayr 6 3 Hamilton 31.66 | Bath 21 4 York 31.17 Beverley 5 5 Beverley 30.58 Brighton 10 6 Ayr 30.52 Carlisle 31 7 Redcar 30.23 Catterick 2B 8 Edinburgh 30.06 Chepstow 18 9 Sandown 29.61 Chester 19 10 Brighton 29.50 Doncaster 12 IL Folkestone 28.95 Edinburgh 8 12 Doncaster 28.91 Epsom 37 13. Lingfield (AWT) 28.75 Folkestone Wl 14 Newcastle 28.38 Goodwood 28 15 Southwell (AWT) 28.36 Hamilton 3 | 16 Ripon 28.08 | Haydock 29 | 17 Windsor 28.04 Kempton 36 18 Chepstow 27.87 Leicester 33 19 Chester 27.45 Lingfield (Turf) 24 20 Newbury 27.01 Lingfield (AWT) 13 21 Bath 26.47 Newbury 20 22 Yarmouth 25.81 Newcastle 14 24.81 Newmarket (Rowley Mile) 26 24.44 Newmarket (July Course) 30 24.40 | Nottingham 25 23° Catterick 24 Lingfield (Turf) 25 Nottingham 26 Newmarket (Rowley Mile) 24.26 | Pontefract 2 27 Ascot 22.22 | Redcar 7 28 Goodwood 22.03 Ripon 16 29 Haydock 21.78 Salisbury 33= 30 Newmarket (July Course) 21.14 Sandown 9 31 Carlisle 21.51 | Southwell (AWT) 15 32 Warwick 21.38 Thirsk 335 33= Leicester 20.00 | Warwick Salisbury 20.00 Windsor Thirsk 20.00 Wolverhampton (AWT) 36 Kempton 17.28 Yarmouth 37 Epsom 15.28 York Rothman's Winning WaysALL NON HANDICAP WINNING FAVOURITES (1990-94) Numerical Order 1 Edinburgh 2° Canterick 3° Chester 4° Ripon 5 Hamilton 6 Nottingham 7 Newcastle 8 Pontefract 9 Brighton 10 Newmarket (July Course) 45,31 1 Yarmouth 12. Folkestone 13° Beverley 14 Bath 15 Thirsk 16 Ayr 17 Redcar 18 Goodwood 19 Haydock 20 Wolverhampton (AWT) 21 Southwell (AWT) 22 Newbury 23° Warwick 24 Windsor 25 Epsom 26 Chepstow 27 Leicester 28 Lingfield (Turf) 29 Salisbury 30 Ascot 31 Lingfield (AWT) 32 Carlisle 33 Doncaster 34 Newmarket (Rowley Mile) 38.27 35. York 36 Sandown 37 Kempton Alphabetical Order 53.40 | Ascot 50.39 Ayr 49.35 Bath 47.74 Beverley 47.27 Brighton 46.75 Carlisle 46.20) Catterick 46.03 Chepstow 45.55 Chester Doncaster 44.90 Edinburgh 44.00 Epsom 43.68 Folkestone 43.65 Goodwood 43.58 Hamilton 43.22 Haydock 42.75 Kempton 42.11 | Leicester 41.70 Lingfield (Turf) 41.38 Lingfield (AWT) 41.24 Newbury 41.11 Newcastle 40.81 | Newmarket (Rowley Mile) 40.55 Newmarket (July Course) 40.38 Nottingham 40.37 Pontefract 40.06 Redcar 39,93 | Ripon 39.82 Salisbury 38.75 Sandown 38.59 Southwell (AWT) 38.46 Thirsk 38.37 Warwick _ Windsor 37.64 Wolverhampton (AWT) 3741 Yarmouth 35.68 York 58 Rothman's Winning Ways Ea 2-YEAR OLD NON-HANDICAP WINNING FAVOURITES (1990-94) Numerical Order Alphabetical Order 1 Goodwood 53.23 Ascot 26 2. Wolverhampton (AWT) — 52.00 Ayr lo 3 Pontefract 51.43 Bath 28 4 Newcastle 50.56 Beverley 12 5 Brighton 49.49 Brighton 5 6 Newmarket (July Course) 48.28 Carlisle 35 7 Chester 47.44 | Caiterick 18 8 Edinburgh 46.74 Chepstow 37 9 Newbury 46.46 Chester 7 10 Ayr 46.07 | Doncaster 32 IL York 44.54 Edinburgh 8 12. Beverley 44.53 Epsom 33 13° Leicester 44.44 Folkestone 31 14 Windsor 43.88 Goodwood 1 15 Haydock 43.86 Hamilton 19 16 Nottingham 43.66 Haydock 15 17 Yarmouth 43.57 Kempton 24 18 Catterick 42.86 Leicester 13 19 Hamilton 41.35 Lingfield (Turf) 34 20 Sandown 40.38 Lingfield (AWT) 22 21 Newmarket (Rowley Mile) 40.00 Newbury 9 22. Lingfield (AWT) 39.77 Newcastle 4 23. Ripon 39.53 Newmarket (Rowley Mile) 21 24 Kempton 38.67 Newmarket (July Course) 6 25 Redcar 37.96 | Nottingham 16 26 Ascot 37.62 Pontefract 3 27 Southwell (AWT) 37.57 Redcar 25 28 Bath 37.35 Ripon 23. 29 Thirsk 37.08 Salisbury 30 30 Salisbury 36.44 Sandown 20 31 Folkestone 35.13 Southwell (AWT) 21 32 Doncaster 34.64. Thirsk 29° 33. Epsom 34.37 | Warwick 36 34 Lingfield (Turf) 33.06 Windsor 14, 35. Carlisle 32.65 Wolverhampton (AWT) 2 36 Warwick 32.56 Yarmouth 17 37 Chepstow 21.43 | York i Rothman's Winning Wags 5960 3-YEAR OLD NON-HANDICAP WINNING FAVOURITES (1990-94) ‘ ————$— eee eee Numerical Order | Edinburgh 64.00 2 Chester 59.09 3 Catterick 57,32 4 Ripon 56.67 5 Hamilton 55.00 6= Carlisle 52.94 | Chepstow 52.94 8 Nottingham 51.89 9 Bath 51.28 | 10 Yarmouth 50.70 | UL Warwick 49.30 12. Folkestone 46.97. 13= Southwell (AWT) 45.12 | Thirsk 45.12 15° Windsor 44.90 16 Beverley 44.44 17 Brighton 44.19 | 18 Lingfield (AWT) 44.03 | 19 Newmarket (July Course) 41.43 20 Haydock 4 21 Salisbury 40.24 | 22= Epsom 40.00 | Lingfield (Turf) 40.00 | Redcar 40.00 25 Pontefract 39.74 26 Doncaster 39.71 27 Ascot 39.29 28 Leicester 39.10. 29 Newbury 39.02 30 Newmarket (Rowley Mile) 38.93 31 Ayr 38.89 32 Wolverhampton (AWT) — 37.04 33. Sandown 36.47 34 Kempton 36.17 35° York 35.14 36 Goodwood 34.41 37 Newcastle 31.58 | Rothman's Winning Ways Alphabetical Order Ascot Ayr Bath Beverley Brighton Carlisle Catterick Chepstow Chester Doncaster Edinburgh Epsom Folkestone Goodwood Hamilton Haydock Kempton Leicester Lingfield (Turf) Lingfield (AWT) Newbury Newcastle Newmarket (Rowley Mile) Newmarket (July Course) Nottingham Pontefract Redcar Ripon Salisbury Sandown Southwell (AWT) Thirsk Warwick Windsor Wolverhampton (AWT) Yarmouth York WEIGHT-FOR-AGE WINNING FAVOURITES (1990-94) Numerical Order Edinburgh Folkestone Salisbury Catterick Thirsk Redcar Ripon Lingfield (Turf) Epsom 10 Newcastle 11 Chepstow 12 Hamilton 13. Nottingham 14 Pontefract 15 Newmarket (July Course) 16 Doncaster 17 Brighton 18 Warwick 19 Yarmouth 20 Ayr 21 Beverley 22 Bath 23> Southwell (AWT) 24 Chester 25 Ascot 26 Haydock 27 Wolverhampton (AWT) 28 Newmarket (Rowley Mile) 29 Sandown 30= Goodwood Lingfield (AWT) 32. Windsor 33 Newbury 34 Kempton 35 Carlisle 36 Leicester 37 York COIN eNaAWN— Alphabetical Order 56.67 | Ascot 25 56.41 Ayr 20 53.85 Bath 2 53.62 Beverley 21 53.19 Brighton 17 52.38 Carlisle 35 50.94 Catierick 4 50.63 Chepstow i 50.00 | Chester 24 49.12 | Doncaster 16 48.15 Edinburgh 1 47.22 Epsom 9 45.00 | Folkestone 2 a8 Goodwood 30= 44.29 Hamilton 12 42.73 Haydock 26 42.71 Kempton 34 2.82 | Leicester 36 42.17 Lingfield (Turf) 8 41.89 Lingfield (AWT) 30= 41.86 Newbury 33 41.67 Newcastle 10 41.35 Newmarker (Rowley Mile) 28 40.62 Newmarket (July Course) 15 39.76 Nowingham 13 30.24 Pontefract 14 39.06 Redcar 6 35.00 Ripon 7 34.57 Salisbury 3 34.48 Sandown 29 34.48 Southwell (AWT) 23 32.86 Thirsk 5 32.79 Warwick 18 31.03 | Windsor 32 30.36 Wolverhampton (AWT) 27 30.00 Yarmouth 19 2857! York 37LEADING TRAINERS (1990-94) | EPSOM i’ RB Hannon 15, J, Berry 12, R. Akchurst 10, D. Elsworth 10, C. Brittain 8, Lord Huntingdon 8, G, Lewis 8, M. Stoute 7, J. Dunlop 6. FOLKESTONE R. Hannon 23. G. Harwood 27, R. Akehurst 17, P, Cole /4, J. Berry 10, M. Channon 0, J. Dunlop 10, J. Pearce 10, N. Callaghan 8, S. Dow 8. 4 ASCOT M. Stoute 27, J. Gosden 23, H. Cecil 22, P. Cole 20, R. Hannon /9, L. Cumani 17, J. Dunlop 7. AYR J. Berry 29, B. Hills 19, M. H. Easterby 18, P. Chapple-Hyam 16, Mrs M. Reveley 6, M. Johnston 44, Mrs J, Ramsden 74, A. Bailey 73. _ GOODWOOD BATH | R. Hannon 39, I, Balding 27, J. Dunlop 26, J. Gosden. 1 Balding /8, B. Hills 78, R. Hannon 17,P. Cole 16, | 26H: Cecil 22, M, Stoute 19, P. Cole 18. R. Hodges /5, J. Berry 13, R. Charlton 12, HAMILTON BEVERLEY | J. Berry 57, Mrs M. Reveley 31, M. Johnston 28, M. H. Easterby 25, J. Berry 23, I. Balding 15, M. Haslam 19, M. Tompkins 17, M. Bell 3, Britain 15°H. Gol 15; she M, Reveley 75, 8 Hanbury /3, Mis L. Peat. Whitaker /5, R. Hollinshead 13, T. Barron 12,M. | HAYDOCK Johnston 12, M. Channon //, L. Cumani JJ D. J, Gosden 27, H. Cecil 2/, J. Dunlop 20, J. Berry Loder 17. R. Hannon /5, B. Hills /4, R. Hollinshead 14. BRIGHTON __KEMPTON 2 R, Hannon 39, L. Cumani 27, R. Akehurst 23, P. | R. Hannon 33, R. Charlton /6, J. Dunlop 16, Cole 19, Sir Mark Prescott 19, R, Hodges 17, J. Gosden /5, D. Elsworth /4, 1. Balding 12, M. Dunlop /5. | 12,C. Brittain 11, P. Walwyn 11. CARLISLE | LEICESTER J. Berry 27, Sir Mark Prescott 16, Mrs M. Reveley | R. Hannon 28, H. Cecil 24, J. Gosden 21, J 13, M. Tompkins 73, Mrs J. Ramsden //, M. 18, M. Stoute /8, P. Cole 13,M. Ryan 12. Johnston 70,8. Norion 8. | LINGFIELD (TURF) CATTERICK R, Hannon 22, R. Akehurst 18, G. Harwood 14, J, Berry 32, T. Barron 20, Mrs M. Reveley 20, B. Hills /4, J. Berry 73, P. Cole 13, M. Stoute 13, Hills 18, M. H. Easterby /2, Sir Mark Prescott /1, Cumani 17, J. Dunlop 1, J. Gosden 17, C. Bi H. Cecil 10. M. W. Easterby 0, S. Norton, R. _ 10,H. Cecil 10, Sir Mark Prescott 10. WaT LINGFIELD (AWT) : CHEPSTOW W. O'Gorman 36, R. Sullivan 34, M. Johnston 29, R. Hannon 19, R. Hodges 13, H. Cecil 1/,H. Candy Lord Huntingdon 24, C. Elsey 23. B. Hills 23, A. 9, L. Cumani 9, P. Cole 8, B. Hills 8, B. Millman 8, Moore 23, P. Cole 22. So NEWBURY CHESTER | R. Hannon 42, P. Chapple-Hyam 30, J. Gosden 29, Hi, B. Hills 2/, J. Gosden 17, M. Stoute 16, J. Berry 25, | Cecil 23, R. Charlton 19, 1. Balding 77, J. Dunlop 77. R. Hannon 15, A. Bailey 12, H. Cecil /2,C. Brittain | NEWCASTLE 1. Cole 11. J. Berry 25, Mrs M. Reveley 19, M. Stoute 18, H. DONCASTER z | Cecil 13, Mrs J. Ramsden 13,M. H, Easterby 12, J. | Watts 12, M. Johnston 77, D. Morley 77 | NEWMARKET (ROWLEY MILE) EDINBURGH H, Cecil 39, J. Gosden 35, M. Stoute 32, L. Cumani J. Berry 39, M. Johnston /5,M. Naughton 15,Sir Mark 30, B. Hills 29, R. Hannon 25, Prescott 17, M. Tompkins J, M. H. Easterby 9S. Norton 9, P. Haslam 8, Mrs M. Reveley 8, D. Chapman Hee ARR EU LY COURSS) 7,3. Gosien 7, Denys Smith 7. Spearing 7 | R. Hannon 32, H, Cecil 24,1. Gosden 21, L. Camant 20, M, Stoute 20, P.Cole 15,C. Brittain 14,1. Dunlop 14. Rothman's Winning Ways J. Gosden 36, H. Cecil 31, B. Hills 30, R. Hannon 27, J. Berry 22, Mrs J. Ramsden 20. 62 15, D. Morley 14, L. Cumani 12, H. Thomsoa Jones vornonan 12, Mrs N. Macauley 12. H, Cecil 30, J. Dunlop 2/, P. Cole 16, J. Gosden 13, R Hannon 13, D. Morley [3,R. Chariton /7,MrsJ. YORK: Ramsden 17, J. Berry 10, L. Cumani 10. J. Gosden 34, H. Cecil 26, M. Stoute 26, R. Hannon | 22, 19,M.H. Easterby 17, L. Cumani 16. Porat Cecil 18, J. Berry 17, Mrs J. I 1 Pee R. Hollinshead 25, H, Cecil 18, J. rs 5. Ramsden 17, Mrs M. Reveley 17, _ LEADING JOCKEYS (1990-94) M. Tompkins 13, B, McMahon 12, M. Johnston 2, | —$—$_$—$—$ << —<— _ <_< << — << REDCAR ASCOT Pat Eddery 42, W. Carson 32, L. Dettori 32, M. | Reveley 50, M. H. Easterby 22, J. Berry 27, causal ais a | Roberts 28, W. Swinburn 23, T. Quinn 17, A. J. Gosden 13, Sit Mark Prescott 13, H. Thomson Jones}2, R. Whitaker 12, M. Johnston 7. | Munro 6. RIPON AYR J, Berry 23, H. Cecil 22, M. H. Easterby 18, M. | K. Datiey 47,1. Carroll 20, K. Fallon 76, . Holland Stoute 14, M. Johnston 12, J. Gosden //, Mrs M. | 14,D. McKeown 4, M. Birch /2, J. Weaver 12, W. Reveley 11 Carson 1. SALISBURY BATH R. Hannon 44, G. Harwood 20, D. Elsworth 18, 1. Pat Eddery 33, J. Williams 26, T. Quinn 23. J. Reid Balding /5, P. Cole 14, . Dunlop /4, 5. Gosden 73.23, R. Cochrane 13, Paul Eddery 13, A. Munro 13, SANDOWN ‘A. Clark 11, W. Carson 10. R. Hannon 40, M. Stoute 24, J. Gosden 20. J. BEVERLEY Dunlop 78,R, Akehurst 17, P. Cole 16, K. Darley 50, M. Birch 20, J. Lowe 20, J. Carroll 16, 15.L. SOUTHWELL (AWT) G. Duffield 16, W. Ryan 16, W. Carson /5, T. Barron 63, D. oe 50, W. O'Gorman 44,. Dettori 73, M. Roberts 13, D, Holland 12, B Berry 40, S. Norton 34, R. Hollinshead 30, Raymond 12, W. Swinbum 12 THIRSK BRIGHTON i i Carson 44, M. Roberts 37, J. Reid M.H. Basterby 78, R. Whitaker /5, 7. Barron 13,J. | T Quinn 46, W. Beny 13, J. Dunlop 13, H. Cecil 12, M. Johnston 28. Pat Eddery 27, R. Cochrane 26, L. Dettor 26 12, F. Lee 9, Sir Mark Prescott 9, D. Chapman 8,R. | CARLISLE Hollinshead 8 MrsJ. Ramsden 8. |G. Duffield 24, D. McKeown 23, K. Darley 27, J. WARWICK | Carroll 78, P. Robinson /3, K. Fallon 17. J, Berry 2/, H. Cecil 13, P. Chapple-Hyam J.J. @ATTERICK Dunlop 10, M. Bell 9, R. Charlion 9, P Cole 9G. Darley 35, J. Carroll 28, J. Fortune 16, M. Birch Lewis 9,G.Balling 8.1 Balding 8. R-Hannen 8.75 G, Duffield /4, 5. Lowe 13. WINDSOR CHEPSTOW R. Hannon 43, H. Cecil 13,1. Balding /0, L. wittiams 19, M. Robenss 75, L. Dettori 14, J. Reid ‘Cumani 10, P. Makin 9, J. Berry 8, P. Cole ig P. |12.1. Spake 10.7: Quinn. 3 arwo omEllis 8, W. Elsworth 8, G. Harwood 8, M. Heaton-Ellis eel 8, Lord Huntingdon 8, M. Jarvis 8 N. Callaghan 7.6. Lewis 7M Stout 7. "Pat Eddery 26, M. Roberts 17, A. Munro 16, W. Swinburn 13, J. Carroll 72, D. Holland 72, Paul ‘WOLVERHAMPTON (AWT) | Swinbu | Fddery 77, T. Quinn 1]. M. Johnston J7, J. Berry 75, P. Haslam 14, Lord i 1, A. Bailey 9, Sir_ DONCASTER ae Nollasiead > Pat Eddery 46, W. Carson 3/, K, Darley 29, E: Dettori 25, M. Hills 23, W. Swinbum 22. YARMOUTH H. Cecil 30, 1. Gosden 20, M. Tompkins 20, Cc. _ EDINBURGH ad Britain 19, M. Stoute 19, G. Wrage 19, A. Stewart K. Darley 35, J. Carroll 30, J. Weaver 28, G Rothman's Winning WaysDuffield 24, K. Fallon /5, J. Fanning /3, D. | Roberts 32, W. Swinbum 30, B. Raymond 16. “epsom | NOTTINGHAM : men . W. Carson 37, Pat Eddery 33, L. Dettori 29, W. . 4, Pat Eddery 21. J. Reid 16.W. Carson Ryan 2/,M. Roberts 18, Paul Eddery 17.) 14,L. Dettori 11, R. Cochrane 0, | PONTEFRACT — . FOLKEST | R. Cochrane aN Eddery 27, T. Quinn 25, B. | a La ART ava odd : 5 ’. T. Quinn 25, Fallon /8, W. Rj AL Rouse /6, G, Duffield 15, Paul Eadery 15, M_ | 15; van I8 A Mano 16D Me Cd | REDCAR Goopwo: BOW pon) + 46.1 Res. pana} 50, M. Bitch 24, G. Duffield 20, Paul W Conon 0, Pat Elder 4,3. Roi 22 L, Dato ey z K Fallon 78, J. Carroll 17, W. Ryan 16, HAMILT 7 ie ‘ON K. Darley 28, M. Birch /9, D. McKeown 17. W, ‘arroll 51, K. Darley 49, D. McKeown 30, J. Ryan 17, 3. Carroll 15, N. Connorton 13, 3. Le Weaver 26,G. Duffield 20, G, Lowe 20. K.Fallon 18. /3,G, Duffield 11,J. Weaver 17 , Pal Raley 2. Ry 2 Pesaran lery 3 'yan 26, L. Dettori 23, M. | 5. Reid 27, Pat Eddery 25, R. Ci L a 21,3 Cael 29.R. ills 19, M. Hill 17, B._/ Wiliams 23,W. Cason eno a KEMPTON | ,SaNDo| | Pat Eddery 55, M. Roberts 42, T. i 4 Pat Ellery $0, W. Carson 37, A. Munro 21, M. | Dettori 32, W.Camson30, W. Swinburne 20. Roberts 20,R. Cochrane 79.L. Deter 19.7. Quinn | SOUTHWELL (awn . 2, W. Swinburn 18. | ‘Alex Greaves 57, G. Duffield 43, J. jin LEICESTER ie] ‘, J. Quinn 38, McKeown 37, S. Wo x Pat Eddery 37, L, Dettori 28, W. Carson 26, T. ne sede Emma Gorman 38 Quinn 24, M. Roberts 24, W. Ryan 22, W. EIRSK Swindurn 19. Carroll 13, K, Darley 13, J. F th ey 13, J. Fortune 13, J. Wea + INGFIELD (TURF) | 13. K. Fallon 72, R. Hills 12, W. Ryan 17, Quinn 29, R. Cochrane 28, W. Carson 25,3. Reid | WARWICK 20, L. Dettori 19, M. Hills 19, M. Roberts 19, W, 7 W. Carson 23, Pat Eddery 19, A. Munro 16, P Newnes 16, Eddery 15, J. Reid 15, J. Williams /5, T. Quinn Is LINGFIELD(AWT) M. Hills 12, W. Swinbum 12 m T. Quinn 61, 5. Wiliams 51, L. Dettor 48, D. Biggs WINDSOR 39, Emma O'Gorman 38, M. Hills 37, P 1 "at Eddery 53, L. Dettori 26, J. Reid 18, M. Robs JEWBURY 17,R. Cochrane 16, T. Quinn 15. P. Eddery 5?, W, Carson 41, L. Dettori 35, J. Reid RHA WT) 35, M. Roberts 34, W. Swinbum 25, R. Cochrane, WOLVERHAMPTON (A) J. Weaver 31, L. Dettori 14, K. Darley 12, J. 2 Williams 10, A. Mackay 9, G. Duffield 8, P: Eddery 8. YARMOUTH M. Roberts 39, L, Dettori 26, R. Hills 24, G._ G. Duffield 29, M. Birch 2/, D. McKeown 14, NEWCASTLE K. Darley 27, J. Carroll 22, W. Carson 20, D. ‘McKeown /8, M. Birch J6, G. Duffield 15. Pe ane ROWLEY MILE) | Duffield 23, W. Ryan 23, M. Hills 79, P. Robinson 1, W. Swinburn 43 ‘arson 41, L. | 19, Pat Eddery Dettori 39, M. Roberts 37, M. Hills 27. YORK ae NEWMARKET (JULY COURSE) Pat Eddery 49, W, Carson 39, M. Roberts 35, te ; L. Dettori 37, Pat Eddery 35, W. Carson 34,M. Dettori 34, W. Swinbum 23, A. Munro 17. 64 Rothman's Waning Ways First favourites do well in non-handicap races, but the scales swing the other way to some extent with second favourites, who can claim only win percentages of around the 20°s. But that ratio improves considerably for a placing, topping 50 per cent in some cases. PRICES ‘The ratio of odds-on winners is around two-in-three, but this drops to about 30 per cent winners for the 2-1 chances. TYPES OF RACES Non-handicaps are thought to be superior to all other areas for finding winning favourites. But of course, this division can also include sellers, claimers, auction and maiden events. So here again, there is obviously room to improve the the percentage of winners even more by selecting the right type of race. Picking winners of sprint races tends to become more difficult as the season progresses, so consequently that is bound to affect the ratios. On the other hand, one should always look twice at the back-end of the season at any horse that was second last time out. Another pointer appears to be that maidens at Icast, have a better record in the betting mart than handicappers. WEIGHT The matter of weight has been touched on in the section on Ages, but when weighing up the big sprint races, those in the lower half of the weights have a habit of popping up at big prices and punters should be twice as wary of backing the favourite in such gambles. This is not surprising as many people believe. Trainers determined to have a go in these sorts of races do not like their horse to get a big weight. They are therefore extremely careful in their preparation and placing of their charge so that it is not likely to catch the handicappers eyes, even if winning. That is not to say a trainer will deliberately keep running a horse down the field to escape a high weight and local stewards, despite much comment to the contrary, are always watching for anyone contravening the rules of racing. In 1988 they examined more than 1,500 cases, not all of which concerned race-running. Nevertheless, they were enough to make trainers be on their best behaviour. Rothman's Winning Ways66 APPENDIX Official Handicap Ratings 65 Weights Raised and Long Handicap 67 Group Races 68 Weight For Age & Non-Handicaps 69 Racecourse Gradings 70 Apprentice Allowances nN Jockeys’ Overweight and Natural Weight 72 Official Handicap Ratings Although Admiral Rous is mostly renowned for his instigation of the Weight- For-Age scale, way back in the mid-19th Century, he was the first and foremost handicapper of all time. In those days, meetings were sparse only the aristocrats and landed gentry could afford to keep horses in trainin : As a result, the Admiral’s job could not be called all-consuming. Indeed, pric to the Second World War and for a number of years after it, many reser st only catered for a few racing days a year. Nowadays, the number of horses actually running and mectings held has been. giving the Jockey Club a headache for the last decade. Many ideas have been introduced to cope with the entries in an orderly manner, but there is such & multitude of races and meetings at Bank Holidays that even the mighty Jocke: Club has to relax some of its rules to enable its administrative arm. Weatherbys to cope with it all. That’s as may be. But there is no denying that the formidable Admiral Rous would have been hard-pressed to watch, never _ mind handicap, all the horses running in the 1990s. 4 Weatherbys has the unenviable task of keeping track of thousands of - performances on Tace-tracks up and down the country each season and it now _ relies on computers in an effort to monitor those performances. The Jockey Club appoints a team of handicappers to look after ratings for the Rothman 's Wenning Ways various distances, including one to watch two-year-olds only. They attend the meetings and assess each horse they see run and then give them @ weight/rating. ‘These ratings or figures are on a 0-140 (Olb to 10st) scale and are spewed out of Weatherbys’ computers against the names of the horses engaged in the racing programmes. A decade ago this was a very secretive affair, but now these ratings are made available to the trainers and public alike. Official Handicap Ratings are given in the specialist racing press against the name of. the horse. But punters should also remember that most newspapers give their own rating service which is based often on an entirely different scale and sometimes different aspects like the time the horse has taken to run its race. These ORs are responsible for creating a great amount of interest in racing. Most punters try to outwit the official handicappers. They can take heart from the fact that even these expert assessors of horse-flesh occasionally slip up. Readers soon learn of these errors for the newspaper tipsters soon latch on and the horse in question usually starts at a very short price. Obviously, all horses that run get a rating. But as far as non-handicaps are concerned the WEA scale takes care of how the conditions are framed in those sort of races. Even the Derby winner is rated and although this type of horse is hardly likely to compete in a handicap, some of the high-class animals move from Group 3 races into handicaps and vice-versa. To take care of this sort of problem, the race Planning Committee meets at the Jockey Club headquarters in Portman Place, London, to review gradings of handicaps each year. Just having handicaps on a scale of 0-140 would not be feasible. Theoretically, how would a selling placer on the 35 mark be handicapped with, say the 1988 Derby winner Kahyasi on 126? The highest weight that is normally carried on the Flat is 10st and the lowest 7st 7Ib (unless an apprentice is set to claim 7Ib on the lowest weight). That is only a difference of 351b or 35 points! So handicap races are graded from selling handicaps of 0-65 up to races worth £14,000 plus in the 0-115 range, although the traditional big handicaps like the Lincoln, Cesarewitch and Cambridgeshire are ‘open ended’ with no limit. A horse that is in a 0-65 handicap and is rated 65 will be given top weight. In a 0-75 he would be given 10pts (101b) less. Rothman's Waning Ways 67Weights Raised and Long Handicap The highest weight in a handicap on the Flat is normally 10st or 9st 7Ib with — a minimum weight of 7st 7Ib, depending on the type of race. When a top weight is taken out prior to the day of the race (overnights) the weights of the next highest weighted horse left in is automatically raised and the rest of the _ animals that have accepted are also moved up. i The reason for this is two-fold. It gives more horses the chance to race and enables more of the jockeys to ride at their natural weight. The horses handicapped originally at 7st 6lb and less are called the long | handicappers and they are effectively out of the handicap. The point to note is that obviously some of those below 7st 7lb will not get sufficient weight to take them past that mark. But they are still placed on that weight for that is the LOWEST weight that is allowed to be carried, althougl apprentices will be able to claim weight off. Initially when weights are first framed, there will be a number of horses we below the minimum mark. In some cases the weights will go down as low as 6st, or even less. These horses weighted at below the minimum and the: raised, are sometimes called ‘adjusted long handicappers’ If you are basing a horse's chance strictly on the Form Book, an animal wh has his weight raised past the minimum mark when allotted say, 6st 10lb should have no chance. It is said to be out of the handicap. But to show punters just how topsy-turvy racing can be, here’s an instance a when a horse from the Long Handicap would seem to benefit. If the weights were to be raised 14]b and the horse from the Long Handicap has a weight of _ 6st 7Ib, he will still only carry the minimum weight of 7st 7Ib, whereas a horse _ set to carry 9st will be moved up to top weight of 9st 10 (the top weight in an. 2 all-aged event when the weights have been raised.) So while the Long Handicapper will not have to carry any more weight, the animal on 9st now has _ to shoulder another 10Ib. The maxim here should be that it is silly to take ~ anything in racing at face value. The punter who probes can sometimes unearth. | valuable information that can stand him in good stead in the betting stakes. E 68 — Rethmnan's Waning Ways Group Races The origins of the Pattern Races (Group Races and Listed Races) stem back a quarter of a century when a Jockey Club committee recommended that special attention be paid to the needs of top-class horses. Since then the Pattern has consisted of Group 1, 2 and 3 races and Listed races all geared with the object of ensuring top-class racing to attract the public. In recent years there have been about 100 Group and listed races with Group “1 aimed at promoting Classic and championship material of international standard. Group 2 events are almost as important, although while some are waiting and hoping for promotion into the ‘first division’ others can be demoted into Group 3, a section which includes the Classic trials, but is more directly aimed at the home market. The reward for Listed race winners is to appear in the Sales Catalogues in Black Type. One way of categorising the Group 1 races is that they are run without penalties on strict weight for age and sex terms, whereas penalties in the other two groups depend on previous success in other Pattern events. Ona rule of thumb, horses with group potential will always be flying for £20,000 prizes and nowadays with increased sponsorship and help from the Levy Board, racecourses can offer the best two-year-olds prizes of around £60,000 in a Group 1 event and second season horses around £75,000, and the very best horses can go on to collect six-figure sums. Obviously, prize-money will vary to some extent, especially with the really prestigious races which sponsors believe can enhance their firm’s image. Who would have thought only two decades ago that the Epsom Blue Riband would ever be known as the Vodaphone Derby? But even the Classics have had to succumb to sponsorship and the immense pressure for stakes to be raised to try and counter the attractive money on offer on the Continent, in America and the Far East. For punters’ information, Newmarket, Ascot, Goodwood and York stage two-thirds of the group races between them. And that should be a hint to any backer looking for a guide to class tracks. Punters wanting a quick way to rating horses could do worse than use the prize-money on offer as a guide, just as those readers wanting to classify Rothman's Winning Ways 6970 racecourses should sectionise them by the amount of money the Horserace i Levy Board gives to each track (see Racecourse Gradings). A neat way of converting prize-money into ratings being used more and more, is to knock off the last three figures of the value to the winner of a race and use the remaining figures as the guide. For example, a £2,000 race would get a rating of 2. A £120,000 race would result in a 120 figure. Weight-for-Age and Non- Handicap Perhaps the best way to start an article on Weight-for-Age is to digress a little and clarify some of the terms used. Many punters will call a WFA race a Stakes race. All races are sweepstakes, that is races which include entrance fees, owners contributions, forfeit and sponsorship monies. There is one. minute difference: Guaranteed Sweepstakes are races where the Tacecourse executive guarantee a set amount of prize-money for the winner. The Weight-for-Age Scale was first introduced by Admiral Rous way back — in the 1870s. It has been amended in recent years and while not everyone is happy with it, it is still the basis of assessing the differences between a two- _ year-old and a three-year-old and a three-year-old and a four-year-old in terms of weight advantage and disadvantage at certain times in the season, There is also an all-the-year-round WEA scale now to complement the all- weather racing brigade. A Non-Handicap race includes WFA events, maiden races and Stake races _ 4 confined to single-age races, in fact, any race that is not a handicap. a Because of the variations on weights given for a number of reasons; _ penalties for winning varying degrees of prizemoney, sex allowances, maiden allowances, etc., some of these events do look like handicaps. Like handicaps, these condition races are framed with the idea of encouraging trainers to enter their charges with the hope of gaining enough advantage in poundage to win. Just a slight hint here, some of the really big races have prize-money going down to sixth place and trainers can often be well : satisfied with their horses gaining just a place. Rethman's Winning Ways Clerks of the Courses who are given loose guide lines by the Jockey Club when it comes to framing races, take into consideration the WFA scale and the official handicappers also use it when rating colts and fillies in handicaps. The WFA scale was introduced to give horses of differing ages a chance to compete on equal terms, but in the mid-1970s a change was made when it was thought that a horse was fully mature at four-year-old; and there was no need for a variable weight between that age and older horses. There is now a sex differential too, with fillies receiving 5Ib from colts in major races. Some enthusiasts might like to form their own scale. There are two avenues to pursue. One is to consider times as a guide and in this area some thought ought to go into looking at the record times. Secondly, it is worth keeping an eye on the age of the winners in some of the better class races. Three-year-olds will appear to dominate these races at certain periods of the season, while the four-year-olds seem to do better at other times. The fillies’ allowance can also be a pointer. Some shrewd judges say that it ought to have dropped towards the back-end. They draw attention to the triumphs fillies have had in the last couple of decades in the Are, for example. Opinion seems to be that good fillies reach a peak during the closing stages of the Flat while colts can tend to train off. Racecourse Gradings In the 1950s and 60s, punters delving into systems and wanting to grade racecourses found that most experts divided tracks into four sections. Ascot would always be in Grade | and courses the calibre of Bogside (now defunct) would be in Grade 4. These gradings were very useful in determining whether a horse was moving up or down in the class. The emergence of the Horserace levy Board changed all that. The Levy Board gives a Basic Daily Rate (BDR) for both afternoon and evening meetings. As an example, Ascot received more than £28,000 per afternoon in 1989 while Wolverhampton claimed only £14,000. That is not the end of the story, for such is the effect of sponsorship that it can boost prize-money by 50 per cent. Some meetings are sponsored solely by one firm or company keen to promote themselves through racing. athucan's Waning Ways 772 Therefore, when making a list of stepping stones with regard to racecourses, one must always bear in mind that while some tracks can always attract the better racing, there are some racecourses where only certain meetings really count. I am thinking particularly of Haydock, Epsom and Doncaster where ‘on some occasions the fare is par excellence, on other days it’s not so hot. Listed below is my idea of four groupings in the light of what I have written: GRADE 1 GRADE 2 GRADE 3 GRADE 4 Ascot Ayr Beverley Bath Goodwood Chester* Brighton Carlisle Newbury Doncaster* Chepstow Catterick Newmarket Epsom* Leicester Edinburgh Sandown Haydock* Redcar Folkestone York Kempton Ripon Hamilton Lingfield Salisbury Nottingham Newcastle Thirsk Pontefract Windsor Warwick W’ hampton * Hold some meetings worthy of Grade 1 status. Yarmouth Apart from Grade 1, all southern meetings should normally take preference in each grade over northern tracks. Apprentice Allowances Apprentices can claim 3 1b, SIb and 7lb, depending on how many winners they have ridden. When they have won 75 races they lose all their allowances, and this is a situation that many youngsters find hard to cope with. Even the high-fliers who have won all before them do not seem to catch trainers’ attention quite so much and lads that have won the apprentice championships have been known to drift out of racing. Theoretically, the apprentice allowance should be ignored in calculations. It is given because the rider receiving it is still learning his craft and the weight that he is allowed compensates for his inexperience. at a Rothman's Wenning