“Any realistic appraisal of global energy futures must begin with a comprehen-

sive and balanced understanding of resources and their uses. What are the
kinds and magnitudes of energy stores and flows available to supply the world’s
still-growing needs for fuels and electricity? And what is the intensity and pat-
tern of their use?”

Energy Resources and Uses:

A Global Primer for the Twenty-First Century
VACLAV SMIL

M
ost discussions of the earth’s energy increase in output has been accompanied by a steady
resources and their use by modern soci- decline in relative importance: coal now provides less
eties betray a widespread lack of scientific than 25 percent of the world’s total primary energy
literacy and abound in misinformation, biases, and supply (TPES: all commercial fuels and primary elec-
proffers of dubious solutions driven by various spe- tricity, including hydro, nuclear, wind, solar, and
cial-interest agendas. Any realistic appraisal of geothermal generation). A tonne (metric ton) of bitu-
global energy futures must begin with a compre- minous coals, whose extraction dominates world
hensive and balanced understanding of resources coal output, has an energy equivalent to about 0.5
and their uses. What are the kinds and magnitudes tonnes of crude oil.
of energy stores and flows available to supply the Hydrocarbons—crude oils and natural gases—
world’s still-growing needs for fuels and electricity? are mixtures of organic molecules. Liquid hydro-
And what is the intensity and pattern of their use? carbons are made up of longer-chained organic
molecules, and their number determines the fuel’s
FOSSIL FUELS: WHAT AND WHERE specific density. Refining of the lightest crude oils
The earth is well endowed with two kinds of (especially those from Algeria and Nigeria), which
energy resources: enormous stores of fossil fuels, are more than 25 percent lighter than water, yields a
and huge renewable flows of energies originating in high percentage of gasolines, while many crude oils
the sun’s thermonuclear reactions and in the from the Middle East are nearly as heavy as water
planet’s internal heat generation. As their name and require expensive catalytic cracking to produce
makes clear, all fossil fuels were traditionally con- fuels that can be used by vehicles and planes.
sidered the products of ancient conversions of solar Despite different densities, the energy content of all
radiation into biomass, which, through fossilization, crude oils and liquids produced by their refining is
yielded different types of solids, liquids, and gases. very similar: about twice as large as that of bitumi-
(Recently, and controversially, a group of geologists nous coal and nearly three times as large as that of
has come to believe that some oils and gases have air-dried wood. Crude oil became the world’s most
abiotic origins in the earth’s crust.) important primary fuel during the 1970s and now
Coals, dominated by carbon adulterated with it provides about 40 percent of the world’s TPES.
incombustible ash and water, became the world’s Natural gases are usually mixtures of the lightest
most important solid fuels during the 1890s, when methane (CH4) and heavier molecules of the alkane
their energy content surpassed that of the biomass series, mostly ethane and propane. Their energy
fuels (mainly wood and crop residues). Subsequent density under normal atmospheric pressure is only
1/1000 that of crude oil and hence their use as a
VACLAV SMIL is Distinguished Professor at the University of Man- portable transportation fuel is limited. Compared to
itoba and the author, most recently, of Enriching the Earth (Cam- oils, they are also more expensive to transport in
bridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2001) and The Earth’s Biosphere
(Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2002). This essay is based largely continental pipelines and even more so by liquefied
on parts of a forthcoming book, Energy at the Crossroads. natural gas tankers. But the cleanliness of their com-

126
 Energy Resources and Uses • 127

bustion has made them the best choice for space five millennia, and there is no reason to assume that
heating and recently also for electricity generation; this process has ended. Increased efficiencies of
they now claim nearly 25 percent of the world’s TPES. resource use have been another critical factor as
Because of their origin in plant and animal everyday energy conversions now provide two or
biomass, fossil fuels contain traces of sulfur—gener- three times as much useful energy (be it space heat,
ally around 2 percent in coals, usually less in oils and light, or motion) from a unit of fossil fuels than they
gases. Combustion releases this sulfur as sulfur diox- did in 1900. Again, this process is nowhere near its
ide, whose oxidation produces sulfates, the largest end. Seen from these perspectives, sensationalized
contributors to acid precipitation, the environmen- claims about an early exhaustion of a mineral
tal effects of which are especially pronounced in east- resource can be discounted. Long before any resource
ern North America, Western Europe, and East Asia. can be physically exhausted it will be replaced by a
The oxidation of fossil carbon, however, is of the combination of new inputs and higher efficiencies.
greatest environmental concern. Emitted carbon Available estimates of global coal resources are at
dioxide is the most important anthropogenic green- least 6 trillion and as much as 11 trillion tonnes.
house gas and its rising atmospheric concentra- Even a perfect knowledge of global coal resources
tions—from 280 parts per million (ppm) 150 years would be irrelevant, since most of the fuel in the
ago to 370 ppm in 2000—have already begun ground will always remain undisturbed, too costly
changing the global climate. The carbon content of to mine, and too polluting to burn if it were mined.
coals is as much as 85 percent, in crude oils it ranges Coal reserves are about 1 trillion tonnes, and the
between 84 and 87 percent, and the CH4 found in global reserve/production ratio (r/p, calculated by
natural gases has only 75 percent carbon (and hence dividing the reserve total by annual output) is about
its combustion generates the least amount of carbon 230 years, more than three times as high as the rate
dioxide per unit of released energy). for natural gas and more than four times larger than
the global r/p for crude oil. And while coal deposits
RESERVES AND RESOURCES are more widely distributed than hydrocarbon
Assessments of fossil-fuel endowment work with reservoirs, reserves of good-quality coal are actually
two principal categories, reserves and resources. more concentrated. The five nations with the largest
Resources represent the totality of a particular min- coal reserves—the United States, Russia, China,
eral in the earth’s crust. Reserves are those well- Australia, and Germany—account for about 69 per-
explored shares of total resources that can be cent of the world’s total.
extracted with available techniques at an acceptable The global natural gas r/p ratio is above 60 years,
cost; advances in exploration and extraction con- with the largest gas reserves found in Russia (about
stantly transfer minerals from the broader, poorly one-third of the total), Iran (about 15 percent),
known resource category to the reserve pool. Qatar (over 7 percent), and Saudi Arabia and the
Resources are, reserves become. Rising costs of United Arab Emirates (4 percent each). The Middle
extraction and its unacceptable environmental and East claims about 35 percent of all known natural
social consequences have led us repeatedly to stop gas reserves, a share much smaller than the 64 per-
the transfer between the two categories long before cent of crude oil resources it holds. Renewed pre-
any mineral resource could be exhausted on the dictions of an early peak in global oil extraction
global scale (exhaustion of local deposits is, of have refocused attention on the world’s crude oil
course, common). resources and reserves.1
Resource substitutions—the copper-iron-steel- Because a complete course of extracting a finite
aluminum-plastics-composites sequence, for exam- resource should follow a fairly symmetrical bell
ple, or the wood-coal-oil-natural gas sequence—have curve, global oil extraction would begin to fall once
been a key feature of human evolution for the past the cumulated production passes the midpoint of
ultimately recoverable resources; Colin Campbell
1Most prominently, Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrère
and Jean Laherrère assert this will happen before
claim that with 850 billion barrels in existing reserves, and 2010. Many petroleum geologists concur with this
with just 150 billion barrels of oil to be discovered, we conclusion, and some forecast world oil shortages
have no more than 1 trillion barrels to produce in the and even mass unemployment, breadlines, home-
future, or only about 20 percent more than we have lessness, and the end of industrial civilization.
burned already. Campbell’s and Laherrère’s publications
and other writings about the oil era are available at These Cassandras are just the latest contributors
<http://www.hubbertpeak.com>. to the venerable tradition of forecasting the end of
128 • CURRENT HISTORY • March 2002

the oil era. One example is especially priceless. In tions are often costly and protracted, and their
1979 the United States Central Intelligence Agency diffusion may be very uneven; societies also take
concluded that global oil “output must fall within generations to adjust to new sources of energy and
a decade ahead” and that the world “does not have to new modes of its conversion. But historical per-
years in which to make a smooth transition to alter- spectives show that every transition—from biomass
native energy sources.” In essence, the CIA experts fuels to coal, from coal to oil, from oil to natural
were arguing that the world’s primary energy sup- gas—has brought tremendous benefits for society
ply needed to be converted to a different source as a whole by elevating economies and societies to
within months, an utter impossibility. A generation new levels of productivity and affluence, and by
later, oil output is more than 10 percent higher than improving environmental quality. Thus, even if we
it was in 1979. were to experience an early global decline of con-
The latest global evaluation by the United States ventional oil production, we should see it as an
Geological Survey has concluded, much more real- opportunity rather than as a catastrophe.
istically, that the mean grand total of undiscovered
conventional oil, reserve growth in discovered RENEWABLE ENERGIES: PROSPECTS AND LIMITS
fields, and cumulative production up to the year Given the time needed to improve new extrac-
2000 is just over 3 trillion barrels, or 20 percent tion and conversion techniques and to make their
higher than its previous assessment, and 72 percent cost competitive with dominant means of energy
above the Campbell and Laherrère total. And in supply, energy transitions are always gradual and
1996 Laherrère himself conceded that adding the protracted affairs. Moreover, expensive infrastruc-
median reserve estimates of natural gas liquids and tures associated with a particular energy resource
nonconventional oil would result in up to 1.9 tril- (ranging from coal-fired power plants to super-
lion barrels of oil that has yet to be produced, twice tankers) cannot be rapidly discarded. During the
the amount of his conservative estimate for con- 1950s and 1960s, there were great hopes that
ventional crude oil alone. Moreover, nonconven- nuclear-generated electricity—first from fission,
tional oil is also locked in tar sands and oil shales. later from fast breeder reactors, and eventually from
The former resource is already commercially fusion—would surpass fossil-fueled generation
exploited in Canada and Venezuela. And we cannot before the year 2000 and that it would dominate
exclude the possibility that the combination of effi- global energy supply during the first half of the
ciency and substitution may outpace the rate of oil twenty-first century. Economic realities and con-
depletion and that crude oil, like most of today’s cerns about catastrophic accidents and nuclear
coal or uranium, could become uncompetitive; the weapons proliferation combined to abort these bold
peak of its global production may have little to do plans. Nuclear energy did become important (it
with resources in the ground but with the demand supplies nearly 20 percent of the world’s electricity)
above it. but chances for its future vigorous expansion
Whatever the actual course of future oil extrac- appear modest at best.
tion, there is no reason—historical, economic, or Consequently, the transition from coal and con-
technical—to interpret the eventual demise of ventional oil will rely not only on increased con-
today’s cheap oil as a harbinger of unmanageable sumption of nonconventional liquids and vigorous
civilizational difficulties. Energy transitions have expansion of natural gas extraction but on steadily
always stimulated human inventiveness, shaped rising contributions of renewable energies. These
modern industrial and postindustrial civilization, sources fall into two basic categories, solar and ter-
and left deep imprints on the structure and pro- restrial. Solar energy can be harnessed directly by
ductivity of economies as well as on the organi- converting radiation to heat and electricity, and
zation and welfare of societies. Of course, these indirectly by tapping solar-powered energy flows,
transitions inevitably produce enormous prob- especially those of water and wind, and using
lems for the providers of the energies that are biomass fuels. Geothermal energy, radiating from
being replaced, and they require the scrapping or the earth’s core and mantle, is the only nonsolar
reorganization of many old infrastructures and renewable flow that has a significant commercial
the introduction of entirely new links, proce- potential, but less than 0.5 percent of the world’s
dures, and practices. electricity-generating capacity has been installed in
Sectoral and regional socioeconomic dislocations geothermal power plants, mostly in California, the
are thus common; the infrastructural transforma- Philippines, Mexico, and Italy.
 Energy Resources and Uses • 129

The solar radiation reaching the earth every year is BLOWIN’ IN THE WIND
equivalent to nearly 14,000 times the current global Wind-driven electricity generation remains the
TPES. If only 1 percent of all wind energy were con- most successfully commercialized renewable energy
verted to electricity, global capacity would be more conversion. Improved designs have resulted in larger,
than 10 times the total that was installed in all fossil, more reliable, more efficient, and less expensive
nuclear, and hydro stations in 2000. And every year, wind turbines. The best of these machines can pro-
photosynthesis stores in plants energy equal approx- duce electricity whose price is already competitive
imately five times the world’s TPES. Costs obviously with fossil-fueled generation. Because of the envi-
matter, and many renewable conversions are still ronmental advantages of wind energy (above all, no
years or decades from being truly competitive with emissions of acidifying or greenhouse gases), several
established fossil fuel–based techniques. However, countries have begun to promote its use through
even if production costs were of little concern, only a incentives and subsidies. Less than 1 percent of all
small fraction of these huge totals could be harnessed, electricity was generated worldwide by wind tur-
since it is obviously impossible to convert all winds bines during 2000, with Germany, Denmark, and the
or all river flows into electricity (atmospheric circu- United States accounting for nearly two-thirds of the
lation and free-flowing rivers would cease) or to use total. But falling costs mean that a period of rapid
the entire increment of forest biomass for energy expansion lies ahead: 10 percent of the world’s elec-
(lumber and paper would disappear, biodiversity tricity may be coming from wind by 2020.
would plummet, nutrients would not be recycled). An even greater promise is held by photovoltaic
Hydroelectric generation is the only renewable (PV) cells that convert solar radiation directly into
conversion that has played a major commercial role electricity, offering no moving parts, no air pollu-
for over a century. Hydrostations produce almost 20 tants, and more flexible locations (sunny places
percent of the world’s are much more abun-
electricity, with Canada, dant than windy spots).
the United States, Brazil, There is no reason to interpret the eventual demise The PV phenomenon
China, and Russia ac- has been known since
counting for more than
of today’s cheap oil as a harbinger
1839, but the key sci-
half the total. Eventual of unmanageable civilizational difficulties. entific breakthrough
development of all eco- came only in 1954
nomically feasible pro- when Bell Laboratories researchers produced silicon
jects could triple today’s generation. The largest solar cells that converted 4.5 percent of sunlight
untapped potential remains in Africa (less than 5 absorbed to electricity. Today’s commercial crystalline
percent harnessed) and Asia (less than 15 percent of silicon cells are about 15 percent efficient. World-
potential used). Europe and North America have wide, PV cells have capacity equal to less than 0.1 per-
already captured nearly half of the economically fea- cent of the total available in fossil-fueled generators.
sible total, or about as much as is practical to allow Clearly, the costs of PV generation must fall before the
for necessary stream flows and other water uses. technique can be used as widely by households and
Hydrogeneration will most likely maintain its industries as it has been successfully used in space
current share of global electricity production during and in specialized terrestrial applications.
the next two decades, but new projects will have to Biomass energies—especially fuel wood (and
be much better designed and more carefully built to charcoal made from it) and crop residues (mainly
avoid the repetition of many problems for which the cereal straws)—dominated the world’s fuel con-
industry has been recently criticized. These nega- sumption until the 1890s. Today’s biomass fuels,
tives include the disruptive and poorly conceived burned mostly by households and some industries
mass relocations of people to make way for new in low-income countries, contribute about 8 percent
reservoirs (exemplified by India’s Narmada River of global TPES. This consumption should be signifi-
projects and by China’s giant Three Gorges dam, the cantly reduced or eliminated, since it comes from
world’s largest hydrostation, whose reservoir will excessive woodcutting; moreover, arable lands
displace at least 1.2 million people), and a variety of would benefit from more intensive recycling, rather
environmental impacts created by building large than burning, of crop residues. Nor is the intensive
dams and impounding voluminous reservoirs (these cultivation of energy crops a desirable option. Effi-
range from reductions of biodiversity to greenhouse ciencies of photosynthesis are low (typically less
gas emissions from decaying submerged vegetation). than 1 percent of incident solar energy is converted
130 • CURRENT HISTORY • March 2002

into new biomass), and the use of land for energy basic subsistence—about 2 billion of them still do
plantations would compete with its use for food and not have access to electricity. Average energy use in
fiber. Intensive cultivation of trees or annual energy the affluent countries is five, ten, or even twenty
crops could also lead to further declines of biodi- times higher, and it assures a surfeit of food, lengthy
versity and to excessive use of water and fertilizers. schooling, unprecedented material wealth, and a
The much-misunderstood place of hydrogen in high degree of personal mobility.
the world’s future energy supply should be Although the gap has been narrowing, it remains
mentioned here. Hydrogen is not, as countless wide. At the beginning of the twentieth century,
uninformed accounts have it, a new source of industrializing countries in Europe and North
energy—indeed, it is not an energy source at all but, America consumed about 98 percent of the world’s
like electricity, an energy carrier. Energy must be commercial energy (excluding biomass). At that
used to produce it, either through electrolysis of time most of the world’s inhabitants were subsis-
water or the steam reforming of coal or natural gas. tence farmers in Asia, Africa, and Latin America who
Once the gas is available, its combustion releases did not use any modern energies directly. Very little
more energy per mass than any fossil fuel while pro- had changed by the first half of the twentieth cen-
ducing only water; it could thus be used in fuel cells tury: in 1950 industrialized countries consumed
to produce electricity. Steady advances of renew- about 93 percent of the world’s TPES. Subsequent
able conversions and economic develop-
hydrogen-based tech- ment in Asia and
niques will continue, Even if we were to experience an early global decline Latin America finally
but no energy revolu- of conventional oil production, we should see it began to reduce this
tions lie ahead. The share, but by 2000
as an opportunity rather than as a catastrophe.
global energy system affluent countries,
in 2010 or 2025 will containing just one-
not be dominated by fuel cells, wind turbines, and fifth of the world’s population, claimed no less than
photovoltaics, but all these conversions will claim about 70 percent of all primary energy.
increasing shares of the TPES as we will continue The United States alone, with less than 5 percent
to rely on fossil fuels used with increasingly of humanity, consumed about 27 percent of the
higher efficiency. world’s TPES in 2000; the seven largest economies of
the world (commonly known as the Group of
THE INTOLERABLE GAP—AND HOW TO NARROW IT Seven—the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany,
All energy conversions undertaken by humans are France, Britain, and Italy), whose population adds
just means toward a multitude of ends. We convert up to just about 10 percent of the world’s total,
energies not only to secure basic existential needs but claimed about 45 percent of the global TPES. In con-
also to satisfy assorted consumerist urges, to enrich trast, the poorest quarter of mankind—some 15
our intellectual lives, and to make us more success- sub-Saharan African countries, Nepal, Bangladesh, the
ful as a social and caring species or more brutal as an nations of Indochina, and most of rural India—
aggressive and belligerent one. And we have come to consumed a mere 2.5 percent of global TPES. Moreover,
realize that, given the fundamental necessity to pre- the poorest people in the poorest countries—which
serve the integrity of the biosphere we inhabit, all consist of several hundred million adults and children,
these conversions should be accomplished in ways and include subsistence farmers, landless rural work-
that are the least disruptive to the maintenance of ers, and destitute and homeless people in expanding
irreplaceable environmental services. megacities—still do not consume any commercial
No extraordinary knowledge of history is needed fuels or electricity directly. National per capita
to conclude that our record has been very mixed, means range from less than 20 kg of oil equivalent
with energy conversions that serve desirable and in the poorest countries of sub-Saharan Africa to
life-enriching goals occurring alongside a multitude more than 7 tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) in the
of wasteful and destructive practices. But the most United States and Canada.
remarkable attribute of the global use of energy is How much is needed to support a healthy, pro-
that it proceeds on two different planes—in two dif- ductive, and intellectually rewarding life? Correla-
ferent worlds even. The first still relies heavily on tions between average per capita energy consumption
traditional biomass, and most of its citizens convert and numerous indicators of quality of life—includ-
only enough wood, coal, or kerosene to ensure ing infant mortality, life expectancy, food supply,
 Energy Resources and Uses • 131

literacy, educational opportunities, and political free- use above the existential minima (contrast, for
doms—make for some fascinating conclusions. A example, energy-rich autocratic Saudi Arabia bereft
society willing to channel its resources into the pro- of most of the basic personal freedoms with India’s
vision of adequate diets, the availability of good vibrant exercise of democratic rights).
health care, and the accessibility to basic schooling Public opinion polls show a remarkable absence
could guarantee decent physical well-being, high life of correlation between average economic well-being
expectancy, varied nutrition, and fairly good educa- and energy use, and feelings of personal and eco-
tional opportunities with as little as 1 toe per capita. nomic security, optimism about the future, and gen-
Pushing infant mortalities below 20 per 1,000 live eral satisfaction with life. Our quest for ever-higher
births, raising female life expectancies above 75 years, energy use thus has no objective or subjective justi-
and elevating the United Nation’s Human Develop- fication. If there is no good reason why average per
ment Index above 0.8 (the HDI’s maximum, most capita energy use in affluent countries should be
closely approached by Canada, Japan, and Norway, is increasing (it did during the 1990s), numerous envi-
1.0) appear to require at least 1.5 toe per capita. ronmental and social reasons show why it should be
The best global rates (infant mortalities below declining. And because of a large untapped poten-
10, female life expectancies above 80 years, HDI tial to derive more useful energy from a steadily
above 0.9) need no less than about 2.6 toe per declining amount of primary supply, this could be
capita. All the quality-of-life variables relate to aver- done without compromising quality of life.
age per capita energy use in a nonlinear manner, Opportunities for efficiency gains remain abun-
with diminishing returns becoming obvious at dant even in the most advanced economies, and
between 1 and 1.6 toe per capita, and with basically individual actions, multiplied by many millions,
no additional gains accompanying consumption would make an enormous difference. The car I
above 2.6 toe. Prospects for a nation’s political free- drive (a Honda Civic) needs 60 percent less gaso-
doms have little to do with any increases in energy line to take me to work than does a 4x4 Range

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132 • CURRENT HISTORY • March 2002

Rover; the compact fluorescent light in my lamp everybody with enough energy to lead a fairly
consumes 65 percent less electricity than does an healthy, long, and active life enriched by more than
incandescent bulb; the high-efficiency furnace in a basic education. Obviously, that will not happen,
my basement converts 94 percent of the natural gas as it would require halving today’s per capita con-
it uses as fuel into warmth inside my house (com- sumption rate in Europe and cutting it by 80 percent
pared to the 50 percent efficiency for an older oil in North America. And it should not happen: egali-
furnace and the 10 percent efficiency for seemingly tarianism does not generate the innovation needed
“green” but actually heat-wasting wood-burning for the world’s technical and social advances.
fireplaces whose multiple installations are de What should happen is the greatest possible
rigueur in the megahouses of nouveaux riches). reduction of excess: undoubtedly, a combination of
And large opportunities for efficiency gains in mod- doable and affordable technical and social fixes could
ernizing countries have been impressively illus- cut the affluent world’s per capita energy use by 25
trated by China, which needs less than half as much to 35 percent within a generation, and do so without
energy per unit of its GDP than it did in 1980. lowering the standard of living. When combined
Annual per capita energy consumption of between with expanded supply of conventional and noncon-
1.2 and 1.6 toe appears to be the minimum for any ventional hydrocarbons, with higher conversion effi-
society where a general satisfaction of essential phys- ciencies in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, and with
ical needs is combined with fairly widespread oppor- effective and steady commitments to the diffusion of
tunities for intellectual advancement and with improved renewable energy techniques everywhere,
respect for basic individual rights. Remarkably, the this gradual reduction would shift the global energy
global mean of per capita energy consumption is now system in the right direction—and the world’s inex-
about 1.4 toe per year, almost exactly in the middle cusably huge energy gap could be narrowed impres-
of this range. Egalitarian sharing would thus provide sively well before 2050. ■