US Foreign Policy under Barack Obama some thoughts
Renewal, Return, and Continuity American Government Ms Wynne
Hope
Key determinants of any nations foreign policy:
basic national interests personality, beliefs, character of leadership domestic politics (demands, constraints) domestic institutions (constraints) actual international situation (constraints, opportunities, events) power and capacities: hard military and economic; and soft international alliances, institutions, legitimacy
US basic national interests:
Security Economic prosperity Democracy
Obamas values = key principles of US foreign policy:
inclusion (vs. division) multilateralism (vs. unilateralism) soft power (vs. hard power) respect (interests of others) pragmatism (vs. ideology) professional competence (vs. ideology, personal loyalty) strategic thinking
Domestic politics
Measuring the Mood of Americans: weary of war skeptical that US action to change things want to restore US global image priority on fixing domestic economy
Domestic institutional constraints
separation of powers (Congress) checks power of the president. electoral cycle 2010 congressional; 2012 presidential elections. Needs to get reelected.
Actual international situation
inherited problems (Bush legacy) economy, iraq and afghanistan unanticipated or anticipated events arab spring, syria.
Power and capacities
hard power military capacity soft power international alliances, institutions, and legitimacy
Iraq
All
US
Forces
were
mandated
to
withdraw
from
Iraq
by
December
31,
2011
under
terms
of
a
bilateral
agreement
signed
by
Bush
2008.
This
was
completed
on
December
18th
2011.
Now we wait for comprehensive regional agreement and stable government.
Middle East
renewed engagement negotiations on two-state solution more balanced US position (more pressure on Israel) Obama seen as least pro-israel president, ever. consultations with all interested parties Hamas? regional approach negotiations and condemnations of Syria but no military intervention
Iran
stop nuclear weapons program open to direct negotiations; cooperation on Afghanistan? bigger carrots (WTO membership, investment, normalized diplomatic relations) and sticks (tougher sanctions, military option) more cooperation with Russia and China
Afpak
biggest foreign policy problem the right war more troops (17,000 in February) more later? bigger European contributions economic and civil support missile and special ops strikes into Pakistan; negotiate with moderate Taliban? more limited goals problem of destabilization of Pakistan (nightmare scenario) blockade of nato equipment, bin laden fallout more economic and military aid to Pakistan? Relationship at an all time low, very dangerous
China
most important US bilateral relationship for future deal with Chinas rise integrate into global system as responsible stakeholder broaden focus from financial/economic relations: climate change, energy, regional and global security, global governance downplay democracy and human rights differences see chen guagchen incident
Russia
hit reset button on US-Russia relations grand bargain? missile defense, arms control (START), European security, respect for Russian interests in near abroad i.e. NATO enlargement (although no spheres of influence) in return for Russian cooperation on Iran, Afghanistan, drug trade, etc.
Climate change
renewed US engagement and leadership post-Kyoto agreement in Copenhagen, December 2009 involve China and India domestic energy and environment plans include introduction of cap and trade system
Global economic crisis
domestic stimulus and reform global coordination to restore international economic growth coordinated stimulus? new regulatory system for global finance? strengthen and reform international financial institutions (IMF, IBRD) maintain global free trade system (although more protection of labor and environment; tougher stance on completing Doha)
Common US-EU interests?
Iraq Middle East (Israel-Palestine) Iran Afghanistan-Pakistan (Afpak) China Russia climate change global financial and economic crisis
US-Europe: essential partners
Renewal
of image, promise of America of American leadership (in deed and by example) but also pushing other see Libya example.
Return
to traditional principles of US foreign policy: engagement multilateralism diplomacy institution-building prudence reluctance to use force, but willingness to do so
Continuity
of basic national interests constraints imposed by inherited problems and political system
