Universidade do Minho Departamento de Engenharia Civil

SEMINAR AND LUNCH ON EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND HISTORIC MASONRY

July 12, 2010

EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FROM CONCEPT TO REAL APPLICATIONS YASIN M. FAHJAN
Department of Earthquake and Structural Sciences Gebze Institute of Technology, Gebze, Kocaeli, Turkey

[email protected]

HAZARD ASSESSMENT INVENTORY OF ELEMENTS AT RISK VULNERABILITIES RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY LOSS RESULTS

Event Attenuation of Seismic Energy

Local Site Effects:

Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City Level

SEISMIC HAZARD

Deterministic
Consider small number of scenarios: magnitude, distance, number of standard deviation of ground motion Choose the largest ground motion from cases considered

Probabilistic
Consider all possible scenarios: all magnitude, distance and number of

DETERMINISTIC APPROACH
Attenuation Relationship

PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD

Seismic source characterization Estimation of seismicity (recurrence) parameters for each source Selection of ground motion attenuation models Quantification of the seismic hazard
pga, Sa, Ai
Faults (line sources) SOURCE MODELS

log(N)

RECURRENCE

F1

GROUND MOTION ATTENUATION

F2

Area source

distance

SEISMIC HAZARD MAP

Probability of exceedance

SEISMIC HAZARD CURVES

Acceleration

SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION
Active faults of eastern Marmara region during the last century (Akyuz et al., 2000)

The recent high-resolution bathymetric map obtained from the survey of the Ifremer RV Le Suroit vessel that indicates a single, thoroughgoing strike-slip fault system (LePichon et al., 2001)

Historical Earthquakes: the Earthquake Catalog

The long-term seismicity of the Marmara region (Seismicity between 32 AD 1983 taken from Ambraseys and Finkel, 1991)

The sequence of earthquakes in the 18th century (after HubertFerrari, 2000).

The seismic activity of the Marmara region with M>3 events from August 17, 1999 to present

Koeri, 2002

Koeri, 2002

Source Zonation Scheme

Koeri, 2002

RECURRENCE RELATIONSHIPS

Koeri, 2002

The NEHRP-based Soil Classification

Koeri, 2002

Site-correction Defined in the 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997).

Fa, the short period site-correction defined in the 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997)

Fv, the long period site correction defined in 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997)

Site dependent seismic hazard assessment

Koeri, 2002

Site dependent SA (T=0.2 s) map for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years

Site dependent seismic hazard assessment

Koeri, 2002

Site dependent SA (T=1.0 s) map for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years

Standard Shape of the Design Spectrum (NEHRP 1997)

Sa SMS Sa=S M1 / T SM1 0.4 S MS

T0

TS

1.0

Period

RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS LEVELS

National Level

City Level
(District & Sub-district)

Building Level

Risk Assessment At NATIONAL Level

Intensity based estimation for the total damage for each city

Assessment Procedures At Building Level

Members Capacity

Strong Ground Motion Time Histroy

Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City Level

ELEMENTS AT RISK

Buildings Lifeline Systems Population Socio-Economic Activities Built Environment

Vulnerability Estimation Methodology

Observed Vulnerability
Based on Previous Earthquake Damage Data

Calculated Vulnerability
Based on computed performance of the building class

Observed Vulnerability Advantage

Based on Observed Damage in previous Earthquakes Simple Concept

Limitations
Intensity Based that does not fit to Current Engineering parameters Regional Building Class Can not apply to New Classes of building

HAZUS, 2003

Classification of Structural Damages

EMS-1998

Koeri, 2002

Calculated Vulnerability Advantage

Based on Engineering Ground Motion Parameters Applied to all building classes Based on Soil and Structural Response

Limitations
Not based on damage data Non-structural failure can not be considered

HAZUS, 2003

General Analysis Procedure For Buildings Loss Estimation

IST, 2004

Line plot for vulnerability curves

Classification of Structural Damage

(1) (2) (3) (4) Slight damage Moderate damage Extensive damage Complete damage

Classification of Casualties
Severity 1 Severity 2 Severity 3 Severity 4
Injuries requiring basic medical aid without requiring hospitalization Injuries requiring a greater degree of medical care and hospitalization Injuries that pose an immediate life threatening condition if not treated adequately and expeditiously Instantaneously killed or mortally injured

Example for Classification of Building Types According to Existing Database Construction Type ( I )
1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. Skeleton type reinforced concrete building Reinforced concrete shear wall buildings Masonry and plain concrete buildings Low rise (1-3 stories) Mid rise (4-6 stories) High-rise (more than 6 stories)

Number of stories ( J )

Construction date ( K )
1. 2.

Construction year: Pre-1985 Construction year: Post-1985

Input Building Inventory Database for Geo-Cells

Input Spectral Acceleration for Geo-Cells

Input Spectral Displacement Based Vulnerabilities

Calibration with Intensity Based Vulnerabilities

Spectral Displacement Based Loss Spectral Displacement Based Loss Estimation Analysis Estimation Analysis

Input Capacity Curve for each Building Type

Compute Building Damage Ratio for each Building Types

Compute Number of Damaged Buildings for each building Class Input Economic Loss Data Parameters

Compute Direct Economic Loss for each Building Damage State

Input Demographic Database for Geo-Cells Input Casualties Loss data Parameters

Compute Casualties for each Injury Groups

Casualtie s Losses for geoCells, Subdistrict, Districts

Economi c Losses for geoCells, Subdistrict, Districts

Buildings Damages for geoCells, Subdistrict, Districts

Transportation Systems
Highway Systems: A highway transportation system consists of roadways, bridges and tunnels. ( geographical location, classification, and replacement cost of the system components) Highway Roads
Major Roads Urban Roads

Highway Bridges

Transportation system: Earthquake Vulnerability and Damage

Road damages consist of the surface damages and collapse of the neighboring slopes or retaining walls. Also collapsed underpasses or buildings can block the traffic even if the motorway is not damaged. According to ATC 25, the ratio of damage of local roads during an earthquake are given as %2 for MMI V, %4 for MMI VI, %11 for MMI VII, and %32 for MMI VIII

Lifeline Utility Systems

Potable Water System
A potable water system consists of pipelines, water treatment plants, wells, storage tanks and pumping stations. ( geographical location and classification of system components. repair cost for pipelines ) Brittle Pipe Ductile Pipe Wells, Water Storage Tanks, Water Treatment Plants Pumping Plants A waste water system consists of pipelines, waste water treatment plants and lift stations. (geographical location and classification of system components, repair cost for pipelines).

Waste Water

Damage Functions for Water Pipelines

STRUCLOSS 1.4 SOFTWARE

(Updated Version of KoeriLoss 1.0)

StrucLoss 1.4 is an updated version of Koeriloss software. The updated version is developed by Earthquake and Structural Department of Gebze Institute of Technology, Turkey. Major Updates
Integrate the deterministic hazard into the software for widely used attenuation relationships computation is integrated. Provide Intensity range outputs of the results for each damage states of each building types. Calibration and testing the capacity curve and fragility curve parameters can be done more accurately and in fast way.

Adnalyis Method Options

Options Icons

Input and Control Data Files

Start Analyis

Integration of KOERILoss and MapInfo Graphics

ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECT

Deterministic Seismic Hazard

Mw=7.5 scenario earthquake for Istanbul and vicinity

GRID BASED BUILDING DISTRIBUTION

Site dependent deterministic intensity distribution

Site-dependent deterministic SA(T=0.2 sec) values in units of g

Site-dependent deterministic SA(T=1.0 sec) values in units of g

Moderate Damage Distribution of Mid-Rise Pre-1980 R/C Buildings

Extensive Damage Distribution of Mid-Rise Pre-1980 R/C Buildings

Complete Damage Distribution of Mid-Rise Pre-1980 R/C Buildings

GREATER AMMAN MUNICIPALITY (GAM)-JORDAN EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECT

Boundaries of Greater Amman Municipality districts

Geo-Grid mesh for the study (cell size 500x500m).

Geological map of GAM

A census block at city center of GAM with 500x500 Geo-Grid layer

Building Parameters for Skeleton Type, 1-3 Floors (One Building of 2 Floors ) Before After >
<1985 1985 Concrete Type Reinforced Steel Type X Grids Spaces Y Grids Spaces Floor Height Internal Column Dimension (Floor 1) Internal Column Dimension (Floor 2) External Column Dimesinon (Floor 1) External Column Dimesinon (Floor 2) Shear wall Thickness Internal Beam Dimensions External Beam Dimesions Slab Type Slab Thickness Average Percenatge of Steel in Columns (%) Average Percenatge of Steel in Beam (%) 200 kg/cm2 275 Mpa 4.5 m 4.5 m 3.5-3.0 m 30 x 30 cm 30 x 30 cm 30 x 30 cm 30 x 30 cm no 30 x 50 cm 30 x 50 cm RC solid slab 15 cm 0.6 0.5 300 kg/cm2 400 Mpa 4.0 m 4.0 m 3.0 -2.75 m 25 x 50 cm 25 x 50 cm 25 x 50 cm 25 x 50 cm 30 cm 70x25 cm 50x25 cm Rib slap 25 0.8 0.8

Structural Model RC skeleton, 1-3 Stories, pre 1985 Buildings Type (111)

Structural Model RC skeleton, 1-3 Stories, post 1985 Buildings Type (112)

Capacity Curve Computations

Capacity Curve ( +X Direction)
0.30

0.25

0.20

Sa (g)

0.15

0.10

Capacity Curve Linearized Bilinear

0.05

0.00 0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Sd (m)

Fragility Curve Estimation

. Example of site-dependent deterministic strong ground motion distribution

Thank you