CT-Sen PPP For LCV (Oct. 2012)
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Daily Kos ElectionsCT-Sen PPP For LCV (Oct. 2012)
Uploaded by
Daily Kos ElectionsF rom: Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling
To: Interested Parties
Subject: M urphy continues to hold the lead in Connecticut Senate race
Date: O ctober 17th , 2012
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut finds Chris Murphy continuing to
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Connecticut polls over the last three months have found a modest but persistent lead for
Murphy. He led 48-42 in September and by this identical 48-44 margin in August.
Key findings from the survey include:
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requires a completely unified party base, but there are a fair number of the party faithful
ZKRMXVWDUHQWZLOOLQJWRFDVWDEDOORWIRU/LQGD0F0ahon. Murphy has also made up a
fair amount of ground with independents over the last month, going from a 51/38 deficit
with them to 46/41.
-Murphy has a solid advantage with female voters (48-42) and is tied with men (47-47).
+HVUXQQLQJDOPRVWHYHQDPRQg white voters, trailing McMahon just 47/45. She needs
to win them by a much wider margin than that to overcome the 60/29 advantage Murphy
has with non-white voters.
-Barack Obama leads just 53-LQ&RQQHFWLFXWPDNLQJLWRQHRIWKHVWDWHVZKHUHKHV
dropped the furthest from 2008. In spite of that Murphy is holding on and favored to be
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PPP interviewed 1,015 likely Connecticut voters on October 15th and 16th on behalf of
the League of Conservation Voters. The margin of error is +/-3.1%
Public Policy Polling
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
Phone: 888 621-6988
Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: [email protected]
Connecticut Survey Results
Q1
The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Q5
John McCain................................................... 38%
Barack Obama................................................ 57%
Barack Obama................................................ 53%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 44%
Q2
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 5%
Q6
Woman ........................................................... 53%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Linda McMahon?
Man................................................................. 47%
Q7
Unfavorable .................................................... 48%
Republican...................................................... 26%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Murphy?
Favorable........................................................ 39%
If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%
Q4
If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Undecided....................................................... 4%
Favorable........................................................ 45%
Q3
Who did you vote for President in 2008?
Independent/Other .......................................... 36%
Q8
If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
Unfavorable .................................................... 50%
White .............................................................. 83%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%
Other............................................................... 17%
The candidates for Senate are Democrat Chris
Murphy and Republican Linda McMahon. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Q9
If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
Chris Murphy .................................................. 48%
18 to 29........................................................... 12%
Linda McMahon .............................................. 44%
30 to 45........................................................... 22%
Undecided....................................................... 8%
46 to 65........................................................... 48%
Older than 65 .................................................. 18%
October 15-16, 2012
Survey of 1,015 likely voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
2008 Vote
2008 Vote
John Barack Som eone else/Don't
Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Obam a/Rom ney
Barack Obam a 53%
13%
81%
36%
Mitt Rom ney 44%
85%
16%
44%
Undecided
4%
2%
3%
21%
John Barack Som eone else/Don't
Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
McMahon
Favorability
Favorable 45%
75%
25%
47%
Unfavorable 48%
20%
68%
34%
5%
7%
19%
Not sure
7%
2008 Vote
2008 Vote
John Barack Som eone else/Don't
Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Murphy Favorability
John Barack Som eone else/Don't
Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Murphy/McMahon
Favorable 39%
13%
57%
18%
Chris Murphy 48%
17%
70%
24%
Unfavorable 50%
79%
31%
51%
Linda McMahon 44%
78%
22%
46%
Not sure 11%
7%
12%
31%
Undecided
6%
8%
30%
October 15-16, 2012
survey of 1,015 likely voters
8%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Gender
Gender
Base Wom an
Obam a/Rom ney
Barack Obam a 53%
56%
49%
Mitt Rom ney 44%
41%
47%
4%
4%
Undecided
4%
Base Wom an
Man
McMahon
Favorability
Favorable 45%
43%
48%
Unfavorable 48%
49%
47%
8%
5%
Not sure
7%
Gender
Base Wom an
Man
Gender
Man
Murphy Favorability
Base Wom an
Man
Murphy/McMahon
Favorable 39%
39%
38%
Chris Murphy 48%
48%
47%
Unfavorable 50%
49%
52%
Linda McMahon 44%
42%
47%
Not sure 11%
12%
10%
Undecided
10%
6%
October 15-16, 2012
survey of 1,015 likely voters
8%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Obam a/Rom ney
Barack Obam a 53%
82%
15%
49%
Mitt Rom ney 44%
15%
82%
46%
Undecided
3%
4%
3%
5%
McMahon
Favorability
Favorable 45%
21%
77%
48%
Unfavorable 48%
73%
18%
43%
6%
5%
8%
Not sure
7%
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Murphy Favorability
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Murphy/McMahon
Favorable 39%
65%
13%
30%
Chris Murphy 48%
75%
16%
41%
Unfavorable 50%
23%
82%
57%
Linda McMahon 44%
18%
79%
46%
Not sure 11%
13%
6%
13%
Undecided
7%
4%
13%
October 15-16, 2012
survey of 1,015 likely voters
8%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Race
Race
Base White Other
Base White Other
Obam a/Rom ney
Barack Obam a 53%
49%
71%
Mitt Rom ney 44%
47%
25%
3%
4%
Undecided
4%
McMahon
Favorability
Favorable 45%
47%
36%
Unfavorable 48%
47%
52%
6%
12%
Not sure
7%
Race
Race
Base White Other
Murphy Favorability
Base White Other
Murphy/McMahon
Favorable 39%
37%
46%
Chris Murphy 48%
45%
60%
Unfavorable 50%
52%
41%
Linda McMahon 44%
47%
29%
Not sure 11%
11%
13%
Undecided
8%
11%
October 15-16, 2012
survey of 1,015 likely voters
8%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Age
Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Obam a/Rom ney
Barack Obam a 53%
70%
48%
51%
53%
Mitt Rom ney 44%
30%
49%
44%
44%
3%
5%
3%
Undecided
4%
Base
McMahon
Favorability
Favorable 45%
44%
58%
42%
39%
Unfavorable 48%
49%
40%
51%
51%
7%
3%
7%
10%
Not sure
7%
Age
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Murphy Favorability
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Murphy/McMahon
Favorable 39%
42%
29%
40%
44%
Chris Murphy 48%
58%
39%
49%
49%
Unfavorable 50%
47%
61%
49%
43%
Linda McMahon 44%
35%
54%
43%
40%
Not sure 11%
12%
9%
11%
13%
Undecided
7%
7%
8%
11%
October 15-16, 2012
survey of 1,015 likely voters
8%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
