Working Paper No.

258

. BALANCE OF TFZAK, FEPIXTTPINCEG llWD , NET ChPITfiL FLOWS : QN ANQLVSIS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT I N KERRLA SINCE INDEPENDENCE

T.M. Thomas Isaac Rammanohar Reddy Nata D u a u r y

CENfRE FOR DEVELOPMENT STUDIES ULLOOR, TRIVONDRUN 69S 011

October 1992

CUY M A L Y S I S O F

RC)LMCE OF TRClDE. R E M I T T M E S MJD NET CC)PtTCW, FLOWS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN KEF;tAiA SINCE INDEPENDENCE

abajur- draw

back of the

plsthoca of

regional s t u d i e s i n

India is t h a t most of thatn

of praduc t i an.

ter,d t o treat regional development as

interr~iooal relationea

an autonomous process of regional p r o d u c t i v e forces and relations

'I'he mu1 tj. t ariaus

that

regi~nal duvelupnrent are not. gi.ven sufficiant cansideration. Ut best such a cmncorn is canCirjed to c e n t r e s t b t e bu.,.dgetac-.* flows; which a r e orrly o n e component o f the overall f e y i anal bal anze u* payments accaunt.
impinge
on
? h e reasons f a r t h e abave lacunae arc both e m p i r i c a l

as well

as tnaoratical.
block..

hbsence a+ relegant data is a

F l t

serious stumbling
t h e tools

P t o r-ecf~onaiaccounts o f trade,

+actor payments or capital

i n t e r r e g i o n a l trade;

+:owe are maintained. of analysis,

have been

t h e level o+ theory many of

context

p a r - t i c u t a r ly t h o s e related t o
in the

a+ i n t e r n a t i o n a l relations. t h e i r transportation t o the realm oS r-egiatbal analysis is beset witn ncrmer~)uf)problems. Ttta present paper I s an attempt to integrate external relations i n t o the analysis of regional development of Ker ala.
refrned
Kerala has a h i g h l y

corr~rnorc.inlisedeconomy that specialises

1n e x p o r t arlented cultivation of commercial crops and pracassinq

of t h e r r products. St exports araund SS per cent o f t.he output of its primary and secondary sectors to the r e s t of I n d i a and fat-eiqn countritas. 4 1 ever, greater proportion of the regional consumption is m e t through imparts. CThomas Isaac and Heddy, 19921 In terms af per c a p i t a s t a t e domestic product or its g r o w t h over time, Kerala 5 % one o f t h e backward s t a t a s i n the country. ?Ioder-n industrial activity is yet t o make any oignificant Impact on t h e regional production s t r u c t u r e . The

aqro-processa ng i~ l d ~ t s tecj, ri
pt'odu.ccion

which

oominale t h e

secondary rcctmr

;.r!tenar vs,
sur-pl us

as empl oyrnent , are character i s e d by labwt and l o w pr0du.ct.ivi t y t e c h n i ques. Historically there

as we>. 1

indilstriirs pl ~ y e d
odtput
of
thka

tlte

role of
has

. r e s i o u a l sectur a c c ~ m o d a t i n g the
As a

1 i\lor!?" C7'ht;nas

Isaac, 13923.

t-esul t

, per

capita

besn r e l a t i v & ? . ? . l ylow even thauyh a areater p r o p o r t ~ o n cC +:lie regronal workfarce is rmp1ty.d i n the rrcsn aui"icu2tul-a1 E ~ C ~ Q F .Si;antra f o r Development Studies, 1'3773 Despite ti\e 1 - e l a t i v e l y backward p r o d u c t 1 or\ base, t h e r.giona1 3evaloprnent 1.135 ;leer1 c i i e t i n q u i shed by significant racial invas tacni. t n educht i orb. h e c ~tl h arcd o t h e r sac; r l in+ rastructut-us L T h t - a k a r , , 1?Y2;. Crnsequsnt1 y , t h e work.+arce i n lierala is
region
bettor educatecr. The
aclu.cat ional attainment

uf t h e wwlcforcm,

tna l a w

la:>c'?ur a b s o r ~ p t i a nc ~ p a c i t y of
h ig 1 :

aycicu).t u r e dominated by
relationc

perunt~ a? i ~:!-oPs arid the havs :!-em1 ted

i nci dencs o+ wage labour

i n trdarb vi si b l C- undei'emplaymen z n the region. l'he above compoundsd Lip t h e slow grohcit CC jvb opportunities in ttle moderrs sector hss caused an cjpen ~tnsmplsycnantr a t s nearly thrse t~ v i e s t h a t u+ the national a v e r a g e CMctkherjge and Thomas Isaac, 17'!f I . Micjration to r e s t of I n d i a and to foreign countries car. ba consi der-eb as an i [::pot-tant ad j u s t n ~ e n t mmechani s m t o the worsening einployntent situation zn the state.
In
sb~ort, t r a d e

arid

migration
oS

at.-e

two

vitsi

ext~rnal WE

r e l a t i 0 9 6 rtrat have to
e x p l a r r l the
trads

be e x p l i c i t l y consider-ird I n

any atte:ltpt t o
ha'ura

r e q i ~ n a l development

Kerala state.

discussed eLsewhere i n d e t a i l
and growing imbalance

the trend and pattern 0 9

extct-{.:a1

Clows af Kerala CThomies Isaac and

Racldy, 19923.

A severe

in the e x t e r n a l t r a d e was seen as m e c ~ f the nrost impcrrtant Ceatc~.resof K e r a t a ' s external trade i n the recent periad. The r e l e v a n t data i s summavised i n Table 1.
Rs.

$224 croras and

Rs.

2613 croras warth cornmoditicr

and 1980-81.

were
The

exported frcn

Kerala during the years 1975-76

total

to Rs. 1448 c r o r w Rs,3441 croresa The exports exzeed t imparts in international trade while the i m p o r t s exreed the ewpartb I n interregional trade. Overall, the imparts are higher than
amount&

imports in

those years

and
the
the

tne

exports.

7hu.s i n both years, Eerala had a sizeable trade deficit. 6s the imports tended te grad fastsv than the exports, w e S i n d t h a t the trade de4icii: u f t h e region r ~ s e froin ~s:223 crares l a Rs.822 crores cfurirtg the period under tli ecusai o n . Yhs damstic product o f t h e region at factor cost was Rs.2228.24 cruras i n 1973-76 and Rs. .YSGl5.36 crar-es in 1988-81. The trade d M i c i t s have sharply increased re1ativel y to the 1 ncreass * o f dam-tic product% on w i t h i n t h e state. The r a t i o was 1 6 per c e n t i n 1475-76 and 23
per cant: l n 29811)-81,

It wag noted that it would be unrealistic to assume that t h e suhskantiaL volume af crude petr-aleurn nousd i n t o and redined a i t c moved out as . regianal imports and exports. The Cochrn refineries, a central public sector undertaking, could be troetad asan enclsve unit and the imports of crude petroleum and a x p o c - t s of 'processed mineral u i f 3 be 1.gnclrsd. Instpad, t h e actual consumption o f the mineral ai 1s i t r Kerala crxrl'd be considered to be its net imparts. Qccordingly the trade d e f i c i t , accardiny to our secand set of estimates, i n 1975-76 was R s . 3 6 4 croras and 862 crare6 in 1988-81. The ratio of t r a d e daSfcit to a t a t a d~mestic p r d u c t rises f r o m 16 per. cent i n 1975-76 to 24 percent i n 198881.

Table. 1
E s t i m a t e s n+ Reglor?c?t E;<pat-ts,

Imparts and T r a d e Deficit

Rs.

u.F Eera3a
't'oar

Cxp~rt.; (cteur-es )

Imports (cr-ares)

Trade balance

-v I 2 >, 4 .."....,-...-.-., . -.-.--.-*. .-----.----.---.-.-.---~S=X"==~~=.~'."".=.LI:.=.YLZ~=~"S_".=~~S~==X===-~~==C:===I~X~=C=

Estimate 1

1975-76

1224.92
(S4.P).

1445.08
(b4.9) E44 1.43 t98.2)

-223.16
t 10.0) -826.88 f23.6)
-364.80

1.988-8 1

2&,15.z?,
(74, S j

Estimate 2.

1975.-7b

1862.34
(47.7)
. ,a

1980-.u1
Nate:

2 iQ" 2fJ

1427. 14 (64.0; 3034.24

(87,1)

(16.3)
-861.04 (24.5)

i6'2.3)
1.

-<=~="=="=~==l=~==l=2=~~~If~=~=z;=~===~=====~====*======

F:+=j'-lres i n parenthesis r e f e r s to t h e

estimates

,.

as a c#eucuntage af SDP.
: L T ~ Q I R . X~ ~d ~d~ c and Reddy, iY921.

sL1UrrTIe

Irlhat I S t h e

sii

g n i f ?.crance of t h e abs2ve adverse t r a d e baIiir!cc

ar!d i:hange*s therein

that: w e

to
ttte

ka regianal analysis? l't i s ta this quastiafi addr-es5 a~,trsslves i n Section 1. The Section 2 i s devoted .Fair1 y clckai1rtd aaaLysls o+ t h e masgive inflaw . o f '
on
r e g f.unal. consumpt i or?,

t e i r r i tisnc:at.

s a v i n g r and

grawth during

ldst one and hs1.f decades. i n Section 3 w e shall atteinpt t G i !?+'eut h e broad t r - q r ~ c i r j 1n net capi taZ f 1nws i n t a the rcqimn
indireitl y thraugh esaminirtg tho
sii.lce
indspencience. W e

trends i n t h e balance

af trade

t u periodisa Kerala's develrpment experience inta distinct phases 0 1 1 t h e basis of behaviour. a+ key n~acra-economir= v a r , i . a h les sctch as domestic p r . o d u r t , consumptian, i n v e s t m e c t c-etni k tances, n e t cabi tal f l o w s and t r a d e balance. I n t h e concluding Sect i an 4 w e shall sumrnari se our f i n d i n g s sod emphasise certain braad pol i c y imp1 i c a t i o n s o+ our di~cuscian.
hope

Signif icanca a+ Balance of Trade to Regional Analysis

u+ our itriow3.adye the on1 y serious attsmpt t o g r a g p l e w i t 9 t h e ecortamir, significance o f i n t e r . - r e g i o n a l trade baianc* i n t h e : t ~ d r u n c:crnz:sxt itas besn by B.N. Ganguli T19tS23. Based on 5,3;vasi;u~t;-a.nrniat1 's C1 ' 3 6 2 ~ estimates, P r o f . G a n g ~ ri l dr&w atteni. i o r 1 L o tr~e sf qni t i cart tr ade I mbal ar:ce that exist between \ r a r i o ~ ! Sr e g i o n s i r ~ Tt~dra attempted to analyse i t as a case o t
to
t!14+
' international

Scst

t r a d e i n v o l v i n g a common currency '

c a p i till ists

he r ~ o t e dt h a t

In I i ~ d i th ~e ir?.i;titutlunal arrarlgsrnents had n o t yet

developed to
in

permit

'abserltwe

p a r t i c x p a t i n g active1 y

lacri

invest,h~ersec' or fur e 4 f i c i s n t

ctroventer~ts '

'equj l i b r i a t i n g s t ~ o r tterm capital

The bdnki nq net work wns a1 so regional 1y +raymented.

"In

India t h e

I-eqiuns

least c e r t a i n s t a t e s or i s mare 1. i kt? that. of seperata nations and less 1 ika t h a t

paymeilt p o s i t i o n

o f at

oi u n i t s i n a f u l l y ~ n t e g r a t e d econamy.. X k.2 nort )r; r e d u c e X t-osece-vesand deposits

noir
X.

..

Paytnents

+cam r e y i e n

and increase those o4

pressure towards
sec~rr ties i to
Thur t h e f a l l

But banks i n

X cannot

f o r e s t a l l any

ntu!.t i p l e ccl.r~traction by havinq

k&11 C F +dl:

enough government
sectmdary reserves.
it?

i n g back on othstdeposits

ot

S a t ~ kv.c;cservro; .dnd

~ ' . ; : iin pr-.teas

result o+ pt.blonqed o ! : ex~orts a+ X i s mure l i k e l y t o aet i'n motion ;a

X
because

as tha

nlultiple

contraciron

the assets
and may

oC

banks
bank

are not

i . e d a i l y saleable

+ai1urerh EGanyuli i902: 1P41, Factors s ~ t c hus rapid integration o+ Indian ecorto~;ty and d o v e 1 upfliafrt: o+ i r l t e g r at ed banls.l n y iratwor k have proved
o u t s ~ d oS ,
0 . C .

even cause

s(.tct-I fears

r ey i orial

i mbal ac-tces unfou.nded.

w e

Further,

such

also unlikely because t h e trade deficit rugions were 1 i k e l y to be the e c o n o n ~ i c a ly l advanced r e g i o n s wh?:?u i t was khe backward r.agiot.rs t h a t had trade surpl uses. P r o t . G a ~ 3 q u l i himselq h i n t s o f the above peculiar r e l a t i o n s h i p in nisi discussion af t h e causes o f r e g i o n a l trade i mbal ancas.

f i ! ~ a n c i a i dlsequi l ihr ia

mkLat.!~.:.~.C -l%!!.@!m? 9 8 . .QE% .t~..~~f3x 9 c % . nJ CfntrateraX trersscet-e 6 4 capital .;and incane uao
the

ma.,--

.it-di.v~;if QPS

regions t c c edvanccrd re<f uno and i o ) cap1 trl sovmentcr

inveet~rcii art4

+odor-a1 gavernriwnt.

ltr this

and f Q ~ M gq X f raae1*,
Ttrti 4,'irut
ttype

Zrtdian davelopmerrh
t t c i r l e j~uvpf us during

the cofanzai period. It was na.t a d g n d Lnaian p r - a s ~ e r i t y but caunterpart t h e n e t tt-anstar resources from colmfal Zndia. Similarly, "tcr~ea, land rwmrto, ir?-i$at.isndueo, irrterast and atnortizatiorr of loans OfiginatiW in b i g y w commrcial cmtres, interest on advurcus mde by m!.do;lamerr w t i o tv-arwfer their' ear-nings to b i q g s r c m ~ t r M , rm; ttances crF prof i tr a+ capitalistic entarprism i n the a~rttw-lanuwe af i #V?.(RS of unlliptewal transfer a9 funds.. Thc,tt cor~:.ctat'pnrt i n r e a l %arms is the e x p o r t surpIus taking the fwr *2f cWtwcli t i e r b i ri the 1 M ~ Q runu ' ' C G i r i ~ i ~ ~ 19628 l 1 0 3 3 i . fCN -* h.+f~othetsJs has not so f a r been v a r t f i e d cmmpirically. But ',fr i s . .. s i q n l f f c a f ~ tto rate t h a t even today any o i the, backward rcyimw i r r Indae hrnve aicvm-t: cawpius while t 9f the advanced f m g i a m have import uuvplus. The trade d e - f a c i t nay be v i m ; a6 a orocecso n e t resource i n + 1 ow and trade surplus as a 'procns # net r-esource nut+ low to and 4rsm the r e g i o n .

Table, 2 drawn up by R. Hahta (1982) m the basis a4 R f m roaa 'awl f 4 L l goads m0~6bmCW)t su~veya+ 2978-79 f s revetrXinq. the data have mmy 1lini t a t i bns. Clt least w i t h respect to W r l a w have been able to show d&f ini t s v a t y t h a t the inr=rdmce & the inter-state trade and tho e x t e n t 04 trade d e f i c i t S r L y

O+

cause

401"

r
+win

trade

imbaFnncesi.

as Uni l*terctl
by prtvaio

6 1 % ~ take

$ . h a

o F <a) drain of urp3:rs +rimbackwad

the backward

tf-artsf er p,ry.wct r t a

ragion.

,by Che

" U ~lateral I trurts+ws .muart be mde' i w kind. rosspat L R W e i s raally no dliferanco between -tic

o+

urriiatcwr! transfers i r , f a m i l S w

in

iltwatrrro

in

tho

cmt@xC:a f Xndfm

fWet~tI

a l d e r est i :~taie3. L'rhona.;

saac:

A,-I~

DUVVUTY

, 1992 3 .

Desipi tc thess

Iicnitatians Tsb3.n 2 (nay be t+il..en as a broad inr?icztc.r o f

state 'It-aciw ba: a?res prevs.1rrrd. 'today.

inter-

atakea 13ur#jeb, Katnataka, +iaryana, Ancl!r~-cr Pt-;*tier-;h Maharar;:~tra, bit sr Pr-tadeeji? and t;:er-3.1 a had s j ,-nj.+rcant t r - a d e <lei. l c : i t r a l ~ l ~ v to e s t a t e OCIflrf3Skiil
that

I t rhowr

n m m i c g +he

mujor

If! tf?:'~s o ; ! per r;ao?.ta t r a d e de+icit, Punja5. ).ti\ryana and Ha.;?arasl.ttrs. t ~ ; , ' r ?.:i@ r.5r.lk5ii. '~!"&Ycc? st;a?;';86 s,130 e n j o y h i yh p e r c a p i t a i ncames. A rnir.icr encrjpki ar? i.j U t tar. Pt.adaa;tt, r'ei at i val y
product.
&fitit.
f r l r,~?ritt..a%t the

p a w e s t r.i~nk.ing s.ftites i n t?;-.c~s of

!;t*wl v

per

capita

s t a t e cle~na..;t!.c: product

Bxl'rar, Orissa

and M~dhya.

Pradesh have t h e h i qiiast t r i m s s;urpl L . S ~ ? S aitwnq t h e

8 ~ Gujerat t a r ~ d West H s n i j ~ ~ . l ~ ,W ibavae t h e 0a.c1. oval average,
C S

m a j o r stalms.

state9 ~i t h p e r

c a p 1 ta incamE

al so have ti-eda surpl uses.

Table 2

P ~ ~ r B ~ ~ i o t cLa ~ 32,Fwzol: ~ & ~ ?-~&.LROPC~~J, ~ . , = ~ 2 n d T?!, ? ~

kp1ap&e-.19t_e-L9.

--

. . . . . I

!Rs. Crcrres! -.. --..------L-

-)-----"-------I-

Strtel3.T.

Irp6rt.s

Expsrts S u r ~ l u s / Surplus/ bsficl t ( - - ) De4rci t

of SDP
:3)
193 1306 902
45C

Per e d p i t a rs s u r p i u s / prrcen t n ~ e deficit

* e rr ')

[ 1)

(21
2975 2254 1664 12id . $682 911
730

(4 i
f-11837 (-1 5'54 1-1 b8C ( - 1 551
4-1
(-;

(b'
19.46 3.76
12.7b

.-------L-------.--..-----".-..LI---..-----------~---------~"----I~--I-------------

I n Rrfor S t ~ t e s
1.

Hahrrrrntra

- 1

2. U t t o r Pirdesh 3. 4ndhra Pradesh 4. Karnrtakr

5. h. 7. 6. 9. Punjrb

- 1
(-1 (-1
(-1

'

(-1
t-)

171

91

i4.23
$5.27 12.7;

li6l
bSS

si8l

- 1 15 ( - 1 1S4 i-i 31F

Haryana
Yerrla

1-1 276

Rajrsthan

Nest Bengai la. Tamil Nadu I!. C u j a r r t

12.

Orisss

13. fladhyr Pradooh

it. Blhar

9: 6 2282 1542 1282 LC1 1263 11 12

588 003 2299 l oB13 1773 1292 3245 3071

I5L5
73
0 58 49 1 60 1 1P82 1965

(-1

- 1 - 1

3.32
2.26 8.13 1.14 16.33 27.8G 43.48

i-i 224 1-! 6! f.-1 22 2 11:

I50
255

373
3P)d

39.08

-----I---------------------

----..--..
(2,

. I -

--..---.. -..
(41

..-CI-".LILII-.C.-o-"o-....-b--.--

$1;
0--

;3j 280 113

(5)
- 1
i-1

(61

- r r ~ r - - r - - r r r r r - - - e . - c c c c c c c - c c c - o ~ o r r r r r r r - - r r - . r r r - - - u - ~ c - ~ - ~ - ~ ~ ~ ~ i i ~ ~ ~

i I . S p e c i i i Category States
1. Clsrre 2, daaeu & 3. nrnigur
4.

fee
Rashnrir
IF1
44

to! lea

Hia~cfial P r a d ~ s b

5. Tripurr
S , Regtiaiaya 7. N a g a l i n d

22 3 I I$
1353

10 lb ( $.St-)

81 34

5.77 12.67 39.87

1.19 2.35 td8q Neg

(-1 51 (-1 141 (-) 246

b
5

(-1 - 1

(-).IS
(-1

3
13

* L
7

. .

26 16 96

111. Union ferritarlea 1. Dellti 2. ~ i 7 t ! f o ~ 8 3. Arunachii Pradesh 4 . Pandlcbetry 3. Gor

Tot a1
------------.-----a

923

21
2

(-1 - 1 0.1 (-1

531

:a
i

(-)
(-)

16.24 Mag.

12
22609

I2
. . m e . .

U
85
L--"-

-----.----I-"..-

60 -----------.--..----- 135

. 39.40
f9eg

Nag.

(-1 1129 1-1 452 - 1 19 6

833
8

...~o..o~--~II--~-L--..-------

22609

"--"---4---------....I-u-"-----.---~----c~----------------o--

Source: EH. Nehta, 19831.

I t i e seen t h a t nrost of t h e special catagory

states despite

Li,eir- relarive ecur\arn&cback#ardne%s have trade def icite.

Kefalr

; : l b o is a s i f111larcase. Its pee capi La state domsstic product i s ictre* than t h e natiailal ;rvt?r-a.~e. 8ut it hias an adverae trade

ln t r t i s instance a m a r t i f i e d version of the second typo \ ~ r dzscqui?. iorA ating unilateral transfers that Prof. Ganguli r a.i-eu r e d ta 3 ber~omsrsr e l evsrnt
Snla~?ca.

in t h e second model 04 adverse regional t r s d a balance ttH r s l a t i v e act-elaratiort of i m p o r t s is ~ n i t i a t e d by large wale flm a+ investmnt +undr by the central gwvar'ncmrct or private capite2tsts i n t o a backward r e g i o n say X. Tho funds are wont on local rcersourcos and on ineporto. 're tho extent t h m funds are expended on local resources, t h e y llrould r a i s e income and t o a I imitm r i s e i n the p r i c e o+ such c ~ t t m c ities. i Bank Gesacvem aiha c l r i L 1 increase to the saxtent oi: Increase i n demand deposits.

"Since banks i r t
loanti, t h s y

X m c ~ y i1ot be aLiie

of

wi 1 1 i n g
i

4 o expand

lucsl
lr~diart

will acqr*tc-~! Short

c\$
-

teritc a s s e t s
t h e Bzi;lks

Lh!,oucjh ttis
X i

money rnnt-k.e.n..

ilnaorta r z s s .
I

1i

their
narr
X
rjyste111

nswly acquired

......

ca

nteltt t h e

clrair~t o
:ill

X an0 non-X

ar.e

so 11;-:1:.sd kith
I!? A

a common monetai'.v

tha:
theory

the

appos.itzz

or-i.cs mr)vet~~entsccaritemp1att:d
srnz,ll way
Cap1 tal

~Xasbi~dl oi non

do rtut

occur, except

as prices

tt.aded good<; ancl

serev1ce?;; r i a l ? in X .

rnovernonz dues raj s~

morrey incomes i n X ,

se is quickly arresred by h i g h mat-gin3.l prc;y>enslty to imrjort. 'in t h e neantirne since a larqe pitr.t: of t h e capital i n . F l a w i s spr,~'ct: o n ~ m p c r t e dgoods i t
tiut a cucnm~rla.tiver'i

p ~ o d u i t e 5no j.r?onediate income e3ier t .in X " 14- w e r-ecrlacet ' l a r q e

CGariqull

19h2r 103-41.

scirlrii

ir~ves~trnent +und inflaw ' b y ' l a r g e

scale r.;.n~i ttancc

i n t 1rsw

+ha abcave hypcltheti cal de\scraiption made

tl'lrea decades ago woclid b e a bruiqd 5 t A t e n i e n . l : sf

t h e contemporary

ek.tnerienca i n i:.:srala.
tuvn nbr a t t e n t i o n .

It

J.5

to t h r e

aspect t h a t w e shall

ne~k

Section 2

Imt-gct uf fiespi r e : h r

Remittance

Inflows.

i brig n i sccry

06

oll-ci gn t r a d e conts.cts d a t in^ ti,

reqlon I S a
break came

tncr

af?ClC.+tiX

times,

itrternatko:?al fitigr.a"L~n !:ram t h e

re l at i vw1 y

new pncnomeno~
cconcnry l

The d e c s ~i vo

w i t h the
the ?'he

ecoiianric dopr-esz;lorl
~ n
p a u p e r i sation of
breskdowrr
thes;@ t h e
c s f

i n the

thirties t h a t
b;y

duml.r'lated

nlaysd
.

havoc on

c.ammt?rci~l cul$ivation.
of

peasantry, durseni nq

land man
In

ratio,
open
Of

dt

f a m i 1y

str~tctures, spurt

unempl.aytnant, etc. t r i qgcired u+f tnroe

f i r s t was the

stream5 af m i g?.ation.

intra-. regional migration

n0rther.n

by C h r i s t i a n

peasant families fv-am t h e south c a ~ i t r a l .p a r t s of the state? to t h e

v i r g i n lands

a1

the

foothills oS

K e r ~ L a CTharakan,

1977-1.

'Chis

intc-arsqirjnal

c n l g r i l . ~ ~ ~ !t.12 .:

tt\e

h i i ly

tract?.

accel arated i n the + i l L r os c;.cid s i , < ? ~HH. i Et~tert-eyional miqra'iiar~ ';othe ut-ban cetxr-ec, 04 I r t d i a rlari b~ cot-w.iCSe~6d ab the EBCO~'~~';

stream

0f ifiiqcst.ton.

I n i t i a . i l y ti!i:+ st?-earn r s a 6 dominated

became

b y . :.fie?

~ J c i c a t e drnen~bsls ~ r f t h e upper rii-tete qctc.~try.Cam2 1 i e c i n

sear *:i!
.For
The

0;

c : ! ~ r i f - a jabs. l
(11-uwi nS

Tc

the !;,c.ct
.:'i-6k sas
ti3
, I

i.n;pov.ta~~t outlet

th;5

wor-b..Corce r l u ~ , i n q

-C!.\t-,

arid s i x t i es.

t i l i 1-rj

strea~~ r:3s i
a X any
i s

.i.ntsv.t7s;:imiaJ. a!igr:tt:icin

C ~ y l c . 9 , Halsysia and 2irrn~

+
$ .

frtayacnrn~+) m o s . t l y

try

nw.wrter...;
~i\i.i

3.i

castes ant;
ii

ecrrnrnurll.kie~

ilr,asj;tn). RL??.it

pi3cket :+

sfruth

centr'ai

c;:a?.sl i

<Joseph K.V.

59803.

The! migv-ation

tu C ; ; ~ ) i l ~ i3170 t H~.iaysj.a was

i s

short l i v e d ,

aa

6 s

a vicjfir~~3ul; pat-4r.i.c~ parli. i

new phase o f miorsatjri'l

t h e d a v e l oped c o u ;t ~r i.G-2
pet-.\

u.f ski 1 1FC! and p!-.rjs'ussitdr,al p~i-c.o:-rtelto

i n the
wGcG

dtcrj. ii9 t h e pijs.it.

CIfi4rUi:
I
1

- ~ T I < ~ " P Q ? ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Qi). c L ;

Tho mf yt'ants7
decades
4ita~!s

must3.y

>10\:173Ci'

g+rt~~-acio af r~ Chri.~L3.*3
khe

ccrmc??rrci a1
ssubcjtar1t.1. a1

c u i ti v 3 t . x - a
i r1v8%t~ncr.r I :

WI~S
r,?f

!?ad
I

i)vdT

past

S U P . P I C ~ S 1:rorn
wiis

commsrc.i.=.f
t&rmms9i.

~ u l t i v + . l - i a n I n .~t~pi';-~.~ri.ng h ~ i q * . r i ! . 2 ~ p . & t a l . t!iiwevet- in

c-i~tml;tvs, t hsl
i-d!-tli%.fl ;il

rni gf-ati dil tl.~

07'.

I':r-t~

W~n.=.t:

not very

substanti c!i

j s r ' ~ > ~ i < $ t r iZ J i t . i l e .-;COP(+

5 . 2 1ar;

~ e: t c ocSis

Lhesi:, iiec.1
tits

arra if:

ues::

r,~:? pro+as';ianal ai>U acxi ,,t!i>t" b; f 0). ce 'The ;oh upp?sr~tuni tie5 GO:, .>+ ?.r:C?.?. i~ I'ia~13140 t~egunto dwindle d i , ~ - j . i ~ i i

!:at"

sever at; i u 5 ,

Tiice

;,:.\:ei.acje pet:
3. t':

t:ar;.i. L ned

.!'.rumer-,nur?r! .;:?BWZ

o$ i fidi i : rte ; V&&?!c- ta 30Q0 per anr~umby t.til:

gra-iri
0i.i

to

rest

el

er?G c4 t t t r s SC7'l'if;>

CGOVUI~I.I:.~~?:-~~ c;)+ $<eraia,l;irocturate o f

Ecii!wujc.:.

Ftat.nstici+,
~ n yi r a r i a n h i s t o r y

i.*?t32.?.

i I' ,-

.-

was

3.n

k1-9~1:IacI-:grctund i)f

t'a!.>~:!l v
lrl tl:c.

de:icllrting ~ x i c b n s l j

~ r ctp~rjt-runiriea j that.

k h latest ~ phase

(3+

K:::erala, v5.s. the Sul f mlqraticrn, aperlei! trp.

.j n

T n e c a n e t a t r a t i o n o S Gu.14: m i g r a n t s

*;erala maybe 1ini::ed kc)

i t s prlrJr e i : p ~ r . i e n c ein i n f ~ r i i i t i o n and t h e

close ties

the co;ls!:~l

oeckds

i3f

the

regicrri have a l w a y 5

ttaci w i t h the

&rab countries..

her-e, i n ~ i d e n t a l L ; ~ i , s a uernarkanle

c o i r r c i d m c e not o n l y i n tlte

rtqlwral .:ant,ettt;~-ai' r U i l bue a;. eo in the pakcern of Gulf niigrati at? t+ t h a t of t i ~ r ear L : b y - C L - )L ~ort-!.lal k ~ an ~ migrat i iat-I. Tha we:rdye

tnw Dui+ ~ t o u n t r i e o , at t h e end of seventies r8s.s 2 s t i 1 1 w . t e bt~ be i i Y ( ~ ~ r ' \ ? d@ , 1 3 0 ( 6 . Tha stock. o i n i y i n t s +rum t:::;erala i i , ~ u 2 . iC . I ) L ? C ? ~ , - ~ E S r d ~ l d l i~ r t ~ . r ~ ) . atso~ ~ ~
mukl
.

net mryrstiot't

i:c~

Mwnd I ~ a l + a rnil1iur.t ti:,, the nliodia of t h e ~ l u t ' r t j ~ s .

Tr!3MA~i*efl 1 : b!-.*!!a. a. . In T & i u 3, w e presen+, a . t i m e rmi'ttance I c t r l ow irrri.o L.erc?l a. t4e have

rcrclrittance
ii~ 1f ats

5.er.i.o~ c r i ~cpdaisadl h o

t ! r e eutimateJ
e s t im&%s
of.

*.;\to I n d i a .f r - o t n 6~11 f 3!'13 nail G u l + c ~ u n t r l e s by k y y w L198Y.1. i=clj!.uwlr?y Sulati anci r'?odk CX98!Si, ha 3~6ufittrd t h a t ;iO p~ cent t f t l i ~ :-etnittences +raurn U ~ 1 .+ i cour~tri es and 5 per cec-ct of Lhat .)r.om no;t GuXi ccsuni.r: t . 1 ~are *rlestin& to K e t ' a j . ~ ~7. . 1 1 ~ resultant &!s1.;~rna.re .fur r e n t i ICani:s? i nt 2 cws ttrto ! f . e v d i a i r t ptrl Capita terms i s pt-c,rsar;t~c)ill Table ;3. Tho! t ' e i l ~ i < : t ~ ~ in6 ( ~ ~ iuw ? irtt.:! the 'State suvyab upwards iron: 1 9 ; : ; 7 6 . It t-end'; to y 1&teal! of.! : 4roi Che oat.7 y e i yhties. 9 s 9 r'atra a+ the dotrescic prrjdu.rt 94, the tegiori (SDI'; %ha ra;r,f ttance irif 1c w was nay1 i qi b 1 u 4.1-t 1970-, 11. In 1973-76 the t-atio v~os 3 . 0 per- ~;uI)L aild rase to a pe3tt at lQ.7 pet- rent in 1980-61, UUP e~jti(~8bke of r e r n i t t a n c c . ~ d o r s n(54 inc'zude the unofficial + i a . F i a w s tmrcrt? carrlb fot'in 35 to S C 3 oev' cert;; & tha o+.r'icial i n t lows depertdiny uport f ac:tors such a?, s r x c i . t a l r 5 e

praeium, etc.

..

t t : : : ~ ~ : : ~ : : e : : ~ r = ~ : : a : = : = : r r : = : = . t = : : ~ = t r = ~ : t ~ : = c ~ : r + ; = r ~ = ~ r : : ~ ~ ~ : : = : ~ t t ~ ~ ~ ~

Ystr

Pw Eir~rta S F
St$ in get a! i

Rati3 C a e w . Ceraia farair t o inaia

3
i

?w Ca~ita i a n e ~ , Flitra
ke~dii

ta

ii9tio ' ~ f FEF irpi t a ion% t a k n 6 SPI O q s i $s i n kera!a

Deposit Per Capita artio 04 Rit i~ Rzsittances R~ritturn &.era\r t o Sff t o India
=z~::z=:=f~~t~~c.ttt=~erO~~::::

ZZS=OLZLX+=-~=ZX=-%:~==Z==SZ-~~

S=ZSL=:'~~~-&~=~Z-I==ZA~=Z~Z=~F-L=C~

i
L \

16

4tS

252 Ai'2 11: 3i1 ij4 iG0i 1333 112~ 1271

9, cia 8 . 5 ; 0.5; 1.31

8.7: 2.87 u.u9
2.95

2-94

$, ?.j

id5 z4j2
lb2b

4-.

LEY P-.C3
4.db
!!ah

I d a
2164

i3.N

li44 23;'~
sa32 3i i b
- -

Z.42
d.tl3

-~

~-~

- -

..----..

-----.--.--.------

Socrre: Ca1 i, liSS ri?ilorts 3s cr,~suwr k,&peadituue, relr-rant ic;ues. Col Ineic Osta Base, H.L.CRnsdh.;i aarf r?e F ~ i i c yGrmg :;5?3). Coi 5. aasic Statistics Cielatinc t~ h o t s A,? l.idra. Fiote: 1.f igures ue st curren? jrice4. :.Per ; a ? ~ t a SSP for A ~ r d l ai s iZa8 ard iQ59 iiro takwt irW ECG~MIC R ~ V L O Y - I ' I ~ ~ . 3,Stnor = Consrlrew E~genditute; S@ -= State iiorestir F?roilu&

;.

yeireral equ?1 i b r i c , o aclal vrii s

cf tlw

iciipsct a . C

u:i 9r.3xi or1

>a6 sd f rim riot .ye.c cjs~f, ~!i'triertab;er! 2r1 t h e kbsei-tco of t h o rcqf.t?.red irrput /'output f ~ a n t e w ~ r -and k rai t?v.wr? t 2ai:i.f i CI opts Cor +:he I - e q z r:cc;r l econoilly. Yuwevor , :nicro lavs:L studies !>n migr'at.1on br'ain k.ev*ala
provide
LCrmmet-ce
19'783 kilvinlclran
1rt\p;.c;~-tat?C i rcsi atr.t.5

r ritc
.r t1 .w
1970:

t i r e pass) b l e

macro

eto!l:~nr;. c:

consequences

of

i-emi, t tancr

+ nr

r o g i onal

dove1op!itsn'i

Wesearch Sur eau,

Mathew

E8T.

and

hair,

e . +38 G .

Fzt-dka8h R.A.

.!.f7&; Fi'adhdrkri~hilar!C

G.n.
are

i9273,
ti169

A+tut-

all, ttte
taker)

and Fbrani m , : 9 $ : 1 . 7 i a c i t J daciorons reqartiir~rjth.u

06
+QI-(3.

u t i l i s a t z c c ~0.t:
remr ttonces

d ~ m a ~ t imot-iey c r e s o u r c e counterpart
try
the

~ I I

i ndi v i d ~ i a l 1 y
.tl~et-d at-e CWO

m i grant

4af11i1 i es
b0t.W
i i l

themcelve~.

But

caveate that t ~ a v e to b e

trind.
Fit- at1 .\#,
merely a saw tig cleci s I

t rr k
O:IS

chawu

l eve1
tile
;

S ntpaci oo dti..mlc r p r n e r ~ . wll ' :! ~I.JZ^

be

sirwrnat.i~?;~ s.?

r r ~ - ~ . r.uurtd ,t,

i r n u x t : o+
I-

Sr~t+tiUa.iig 13t.

r e . I

L!-&ei txi %r.~zrr ?: huuset\oL ds.

Equal i .\=

import&;-1-t 3t.u

~cli:.~~s4ji, 32 r 3 ~ 1 r t b S GI ;

. r e i

d v

i
rlr

f cum

remi ttartce i.neorns. G 1i d ti; I r

5.)

?'ke burtoti ts n-f

r e m i tCarice i n 9 l ~w
*

ctat

gi v e f i
dnd
ciear I

Lhs

strCr~i9

r!?t:5tr.1bitT.2 vr- me-.cilar,isms i.1 o y e r a t i ~ r l . sstsecially t h e t r c . d i k l o t ; s

; o L lec?.~. va

i;rar'.~a:; 91.!>LJ

!I

t t

uni ver'~e.j.

or.~ctlce c?f g ; 4 L s
kir?.

ii\.-i;;. ':l\u rt:i~i"dn:i?as t c )

y i v s I?~s/ller I q i t l i and
~ L I

a b ~ r s s n i n gc ~ ft t ~ s illcorns d i s + , r i S r r L i . ~ s ttit ~ chc? s t a t e . f i r e L.arar~t'? v a t i c ) US C P ~ S C W I ~ expsnciltur.e WIS v.i:-tun1.i:; t h s same 5.17 bo'kh 1973--74 and 1986.-87 at
@.38'5

1 L L 5 scl A kc?.! y t.i~&.L ~ ,lg:.ij,t:i i crI has A. e c i

~ n d db.21Cb7 rcsyect;voly.

T h e + a c t khaC

a nra-iocity c.C the

GcrlC

m l yl-arr ta heltlngucj

eav+?i! I +

ta t h e rel a L i v e i y 'L owar income g r o u p s , n o t t h s IbwesLi, also c ~ n t r - i b u t s d to the above outcome.

ti?&

Seccrndly, e;#en t h e mlcra clatia

t - ~ ~ r l j r y ~

have been generated h i t t i

tcj

IC to h3usehr31 J l evai i ,xomu ?. expendi t u r r and savi ng have

be taken

w i ta caution.
p a r t 1 y clue

'The

inc0~71e as ti mate^ art?

~ t n d e r e s tmated i

t o d e l r ber a t e

urri versa1 ! .y underreport i n y by ttlc

t - ~ s p ~ r , d W l t uope

31..\k:.

ktj

t!-ie

i;.ncwJecjq&
i

01-

t h e 5avinQf.i

3irecLiy
w
i

dugl2sl.frst.i

ear'

p ~ r . ; > ~ r ~ , = ? ti l y
I

t k81 ~ t.
t

Corrseqt\ar;t:'i.!/
gro;J~cisitry ta
{ . t t e

the fni~i-a;.?. t.e;ic!en~y ta o v e r s t a t e t!'~i.

a ;
:,y
~f

!:O11Si.:.71d
r

aut:

- reniitltanr:e inciimca.

Furtt~et-,

.. .

r ei
5

tu

C?i.vu.I.j'-'. i n +ormati on

regardins

financial. s+.vj.rfgs

@xi.~~tqer"aCe the
r t 1 : , : 1

prcpdrtia;1 o i

sa;,i z k c j l ; dutated ta t h e SF ;jir,ifia?: j. w-i 0.6

An
9i;i den#:@

p r . ~ d ~ tic vk e assets.

(:).I-'

SliCti

;a p u s s i a i l . l t y

i.lndep-~tat.inCJ przJ~\ctiv..in a

u L i ) . i s a t ~ o n uf esset.5

is i r ? d i c $ . t e r i

lar'gc survey
0.6

ut- Gult
prior t c

cstcrt-net?~ u ~ h i c hr e v e a l s kitat

h e , Ij
!-!:i qi.);:jye
;

it
-hi.-r.eni

17iiqrant: rb?:tur.naec
l~ w s is
i!;.!::
CPT

errjoyed irnpl-avamsnt
iili

ir\

tl->ui~ C'U F - P S T ~ ~ . i i 7 i x t l i t e aver t h &

yrat i o r 1 t Nai 1with

'3

R G, X07Si151 .l,l
t:hs
,

j, n~zaifii; f

cwnsi eten.;;

~ ) . t )-!r.kp,:..~dg~t. i ve
r i ~ l3teal:i. i 0 %

ti 1 i sat;iijri

r - s m i r tar-ices ddri ng the per Y, islrf a+

i-o~-$.~-<.&CQ
.-cJ~.I-

j.,~;.

EvY;~ ti:i~~qVb trie

cc.u
1

e.,:~; 5.i.t!.bi35. ~ o ~ l d ~ - ~ SO . ~ tfared

i

ats*

nut

ds.;.f~c.f

d'cr'

?-3::.ioij

,:j+

ar

a.vet-rigs

pr-opensity

~::i-$n<;I,:..it& .C':-I.~

~.C"I,~~~MTIC in Mc t m g 9

t h e . ~rr~tversc;;l

~ ~ J ~ I c , L u s L t.~:si:?\r>d ~ ~ ~

pe~~g;.j~~-.-\$.;\~-;

c,i~a.sr.a!.~-ti a1

i m r t . o ~ e m ~ . ' : t i~

c!-,r~.;ulrip.Lr on
2

iF v ~ X s
C

~Up'Liib f .:. C ui;i?.

, :

1 .

. <PIG . 0.7 ..: i ~ nyl

nil q. hi.:.t

t \ ~ ~ ; ' ; ; e : ) ~1s l . j s(417 ernine:.~il r

~ < t - j . ; . . i - s ~ . ~X ! 5; .':!j cvhy ~t>

Cur most a 6

the
a+

di..C?.~o J:..c~if

r.:fl;+t.i\j~~jy pc,mrer s t r a t a
the
.Firc,.t
VlaS.

~i>i;i +l; y

c~r'iiit.rinp!:~ o r ! %..;per'rd i .t~:.?-k? shaul d b&

i ! " I > : T ' L L & ~ F . ' ~ 1. TICC~C~IC.?.

I mg:T ~3i/;?ic;i+flk i ; I

ccr:-:sL\mvt i an

c l ai~nan'~ on titen the fllO5t

~i s l B i e e ~ b ) ~ ~ i ) r ~c ! i l n : ! > ~ i t c i inlgcation.

?lit? ahava ubser,vat.iai~ is j u s t i q i e c l Sy t h e available

-. .J .

the

t.7-.st?ds., L ( i

;)er < c c ~ I ~ s L ~ ~ ~ a>:?an;fi >P?~.o~ ture ~ given 313 TaiaIc? -. I he peiV-cau;. 5 4 .;~or\~~!niel;e:.:p;+t?diCi.tr-e i n t:::oral a was lower than
f i l J. t:'-:a Gar 1 y
~ ~ ( e , > ; c t i . ~Since 9~.
1 rb

.. 2.:4ip:~.:a

t1at.d air

t h e ~tai:ioni:..lavtwsue
P ei at i v e
c:onsLtmet-

tt~chti15
i rnpvavsd

sxppend i tuue
? 3

1 eve1

F:.erala

has

~.-as di i y

i s? seen

SL gill i S ~ i j . r y ~tl

th4

natj aria!

aterago tat- 14i;3-1.34 aiteJ Soom ptra5r-j

.Frtt-

i?5!,--.:,;' LC, 1C;'&-U+,

nt

ySa,"a

. I 6:

t:t;c.

G~a.1t
L!;

I
ti72

! .

:!a\*..:i iab7.+.
A

I he
i i

I.

snk c>,.tiei

:.'.oral n afr~cini)

n . joi. ~ 619:-e5
:Q
iii

);.t:'~.-,&pi id

expur,ditc~.r~~ iiriit'aved +rom

i ( t t ~ r ' e ~ ~ i i b * e ic y ks ,j car,

1V7'B..i'l ti, 4 i;) lY'Ja-3.

L;:ven moi-ii

LO seei:

+ * - Q ~ : rdbre!
~ A G Q

e s p e n d i t ~ . ~ r -t.0 & ::u?ity in 1986-67.

dlliT

kd.3

1;ew:~d LO

o+ cwlsum@l* l n t h e eighties Gxeceeding

tr,d r a t i g

: ; ' ,

P I i g ~ a r r o i r vof!ictl

c a u b ~ 4tem&rk.;.htlk
lie;;,;,iis 1 : d iar=tvQ

il.~crciac-e i n per.
e . F fectstl

c~~p1.2.:~

ccl;t-si!mgt iorr s::pen<l& t ur e,

ai r;a
crrrt?

s i yclt f r ciinr

cl.tangt,s i 4-1 t h e c a n p o s i r i c 3 1 1 oi

CO~LSUII~~~J. TC hA e ~ t001-! .

baskel;. 2f

the

state

;la%

b+icn

t~-anoC~r-rnwi?t-sc,r
Ii
1 ka

durniratea
arid

by

ilhei:p

car u o h v d r a l e
c a s t 1 i er.

sui;ir!:i tuten

tapioca
i elpar t ed

relatively
,:9rrsi
~

cica&&t i

prokeir. st?rrr*ce i i kc! sea

i o i ~ u sC Uuvvcrr- y
e:..perrb ~t.urq? FIAS

. ( irin

lo

nrre pra.jocrilnantly
veyetat 1 es

c)t i

c era,hl P , nri 1I:. ,meat

!.99(lrJ

and pr uceesed

;'he shst e

oi.

IIL-J~.-.+

o o ~ it e r n s i r~ cc;n~urnpt t oi? 5E: pev c w r l t

i l l

I~IC~~ i r 3? nlW 26 S pa B ' U cu(t"i t3

rut-al are&.; ancl ct-a;c\ 29 p a . ct.trt to 41 psr CkrlL L i t icvban ~?,-t?aa c + ; Eercal& s6t weer) 1367 ant.! 1YG5, ihs sfhac-&a oF ccsnsurnption c.6
d u c . a b l s g u u i ! ~ ;B h . W
k ; ~ ~ - d l~qarctsl: a ali
I .T i 3 3 3

a n : . $ : S A Y pet-

rl.dr\t

it?

;:-~*r-&l

atld urban ar.i.ah w i -

+ill l r r o l a u.+t.rcga

of 2 . 3

per cent LSirnr~y t:..P.,

Artottteu. irnpc.11. t s r ~ i : pt:rlrrC ::+tat: tnexy

05

n o t e 6 i r , t h i s ccntes-i. J b
cat?ulrmer e x pendl Lure i t r
h a s esparrded +rctn

tna ci.ec.aiai..~.~;~:'r oF At!tgrJr*t i o n t e ? i ' t oS t h e

ttte btatc,

It:+

$cud dupeclclency

uS
BLICI~

tt~k state

grdxrt

i~rroor ta

ta
'Fhc

eavel-!

tt+,xd

as

ticeat,

egg,

f r u t t atold
arb3

vegetables.

i r n i ) ~ ~t '

a 4.

;nat\ufa c t ~ ! r & consumab?es

intsrfllodia2e r;root.!,=.tcq . j ~ v , i > as

ptteitomonal y ex;>a.,~ded.

sac.:stt-ucLiart aater i. a1 f; have

S i r c l i l kt-A y .Ll.re~'e was

n l SQ

rrrs ircrpor~: af cement

i IICI-eased +rom 7 I a ~ 1 1
8 t'uL d

tu~?rte-; bslwi.;ar,

:$75.- , ' 6 and 1V801-8:.

increase ~n t h e value a+. in,ncsrts: cri: sarrl t n r y wares

and

CPhcnnas f sitac
'13..

R e , 1 9 i'h@ i ~ x r e a t i si n the lmporr ifi.tensity 0 4 regional ecu-tamy t ~ a s been r e f l s c t e d in t h e ballooning a+

iclg!,*r-,t

: J 1

ki<~V.~.-'~zLJ:.i,

Ys s
I.r.t'.~e-l I.d.~er.
era
J

r::iij:.z>

1 - t ~

.LPIG

X Q ~ ~ ; X I = . G ~ ! C ? C , C :+f _~

t n i s a m p w r t leakaqs
a r ~
UL:L.

P.?+'arc1:P:ei. let.
!i

3::

a;<:?n.i..rs the

it>^ . & ~ * ? ~ tad :.s ) -..!.la - ~ V I rtqs 117 the

. .
L

.t .~. ~ i . % 1nc.r e
i
6 2: i

avalJanle evidence
! ' . ; ? W are E tM

reli&ble

u;
f - l ~ ~ . ' .

ci)wt C ~ I T04
I

r.~,i.~.:~;t.~-:..I.

ii

i. ii~)i T .3 ~
111

6 d ~ j .t,i t 'E?

L ~ I C ~ G i ~n S ; i~ hr

1 -'i.f 1 i.cq

04.

r u m i t.tartrss i' r);r;: tire 6~!1 -+

=I-.e

c.3nnequent !rpQr!

1 .5

t : - e iecc?n:i t, a!.

A! ? .-.Ii?di

).;ii.~r

ai

aad D ~ b t ail,:!

1r

ei

.a

..be.~ 1-5 ./r?.5:L

C! 83.;; t r8 !el(>@C.1 art6 1 '$7@-71 t h e

asset5

0-i

I . .

izs.

; ' 7 , 4 : : 9

c ompnret.: ic,

"ei

n a t ifir?aJ a..,a/-3.qe .:,+

RK,

2 % %?:!:)7, ~ ;<ot a l .I-. ' e r *i?b:

a r dar impr.bidaJ

7rte ~ s c o i i r j

2cr.t

0.6

9~1c~i';t;a r

biat~ to ~
.L;I

.;:tlf

.tr-~~'r?d it3

psi

i=dp.ita

depc>cjits zn ccrtn:.ier.c.iaA banks rjlven

Table 4s.

'Th* .:.;

rapi t

barit: ciegvsi t c;

:,

F:<rt'ciI a w t ? r e s i q n i C i c i c c t 1 y : m e ? ; - than ;;I*'.

c t a t ~ o n a la v n ~ a~ja tzj . l

fiid s - ~ v e n t l e s .

E ~ c twl.::t-;

\:he 0nGr':r:

GuiS:

c t ~ i

que..t,i or?,

ti.161p

!-.tie n~itiarral. :zveuaqa,

-.-.. ,~~cl ?:Se s ratio

~t j . .~ ~jn ;)i i

!.::BY r.il

a i nrprt?vrd

L ~ I

relatitr?

o f per f-apiki?. t.ank deposl;:s

to the rrat,~ or:al average h h i t h &-)a6 0.7'2 i t i 1?7(a-71 becgn~o:. yt-eater tharr ~ c 1 2 1 ' t y i t i - 1 ~ 3y z . ~ : !.977.-78 ~ &nd plateaus o+t

+%
R

;it

-.cn

Section 3

mx_ec,c,t_~i~n_o,f-NeLCa_~it.al Fl ous and

I:et4.aX a
S.3b

Phases af Growth
above

has

rint beer\

c'ki anrwl i. s i . ng t h e
6 2 .::Vrii?

crtiut?ds,nca

GI-

it i 9 9 3 t l k 0 i ~ ) ~ ' a d iV+ t~k : ;i:3i.r>3-kfitr?rlt

t3.i:

state.

ii:

I %

seer)

that; t h s ewteflsisn
uf deposits.

crecrt ' i to t rjapcxi'it

.r-ir.ifi;

end 1.tznus;.;ehaTbcz >.n the , . < & : a

'T:?r! i-!-edi

r 6 ~ to i

+or the

e t h t e 1 5 not

cnl?

2 r ~ w o r than
aver

the ~-~.;;ii;jhboUrlF'i)u

vq ~ i l d t s s
ii,

: . 3 u I .

hds a 1 . m

been daclirij n g
!:'~ar.-~l, i Y Y 2 1.

. tr m e 1:Uov~r.rtfnefit nf K a v - a :

S t a k e 11'1 anni ng

if.'lus.tratzv;je

EIXBC-C~SC

u s sng
ij?'

some

uf

reg1on&l b a i :ai~Ct?

CJd>!:ibX!V.S

the

k:i.?y q s r *a51 ~ es

i I?
many

Daspice

9 s

1 i m~ .Lett1OI.!,~,

a<

tt.16

+ -te .,.ts. ~..ist?d,ti-^@ +igur,e. ai*.!riv~!t:l at w i l l g i v e a

tha?

bt-i~ad dS ntc?n%r ~

f r L>C

s.,zc;;ti at la1

6x5;-tomic real. . i .t y

and

5~fiic

3 . di ~ i.lg-$--\3u.t +-I>;?-w?,
I n ol.dt?r

:--.I '?,73--..7.&-., ,:,ixlsi .- .\9<3,V--$?-:i.

,:(,tat

tthe
h e
CIA
A

e::ler..rtai ~-1ayaients m a y t i 3 1 ancc;,

+ I

ti?@ net

of:

I. i

<.*pi t a i

~ C C C ~ U ~ i~ Ia ~s S ta

equal.
oil

balance 0.l: +: -:

aoe.

i:t>e assiirrtption

ti.-et. t h e

net pzymerct
d\l=cnt.tzt

e;z,tevnal. 1 y awnisci

a s s e t e ancl o t : . ~ a r ; .
j

a r t turr ent

&re

i'legl i . q i bl e, rtle Galanee 04. paymeclts;

den.ki t y may b e expr-ussed tks

+ b:l..L awa
(X

n!

-b

FR + IR

PL + OL

(1)

where r R stitn.jz f 01' r e m i ttarti;o.;

t e r n , 2. 9ar.i;
I

?:c r*,r.;
iI

I.

, c c t 8 - , ~ e s ,-but

i - e ~ tot

lnclrn, FR

+ST

~ ~ . G I *;rrr:lg,-r E

<o:ri;tc- airs, i-'i ,!.ur' pr I v a t & short and l c n g

I -

r
;:it+-.
il1-d~::

thrj

s rm i
i rr i'abl e
I

!.s..t..,i r t :

PU:'!. : .; xr-our~ t
&.
;;+.

.
i

~ a pt i bl

ascount arid

OL 4c-i-

?i-13 o.j!:i!r~dtt?Q +

r w n t ttancbi

# : :

JI I

in:-t 2:.
t

t.j
; .

5:16

ex c r r ' t v , r:hu r r n ; t t r anccrr e s , r

6
7.1:~ ir

, I t

i? 1

.i !
it
ict:I>&.,

~.~i:iudt?d +ran th*

' p i q,e murley '

c a1 i . ~ at~ iGI i I.
;I162

L c : . rro l t t r 2

;I-IBQ
i l i l t

ellti ru

6%

&Qbc'*

.t 5 -

g*~pki.*i L -v knc.*~.?,
a=
t i

v.ej: stributive t r i : ' ) ~ f t ~ '

(jaynte~ct d t

*?Ac;T~%~
I;F.L~+ I G

e~uo~rit! is ~
; f t

concerned.
o

t"

5i\11t~tl~df? p t

the RO~,~[?BY

b ) a - k trtansy t:~a,'k~?t anti L t t ~ c + ;L

r t e t . i , i d c i r . + : i ~ l t Cc, the .f i n a ~ t c i a li l ~ S

to tlta $?.ate. It
?st'
~ f i i - tu

ii: a s e ~ . ~ s e r that l
atrtut-

f ' ~ ) k - QI'I bi

rat, lei4tit an amnun!. equai t o L% . . : . 2 1 1 r l t L i r l = t : S i t r i ~ ~ ) r i ~ ~ of . L v+ A Ca1 ~ chancti b i s

2 ; a t r ctns+errsii;~! t r a m

atiites v l n

i
I

nuney

'

channsi 5 .

Su5stirc..,-it~g \-hr; s.r#a.iablu

c);-?ta fou 19bd-01

set

i;ol I o ~ i n k ; : :.Z&v.> - .3@154 8

-IJ.Si
t
-t.,8'ufi

; lfi

k;.
CiL

4.

UL

(1)
(sj

' / r & v- if-

I.'[,

-7'. . +

AH =. I-'!.
i
t

+ QL
v i a r
+:

(4)

Ma do f i d L
vf

l
a

i t

g i 8 d s c r the larQe fiuilitre.

u+ lri->is,
.klle!
r ~ t

I li?;YI' r e g 1 ~ll.cd1 ~ I ~Ir - a r tt 5

I

.urn jr:cit-al a to the r'ost

r u t
I
1

c
i
t

t
I

~1
.
:t

6I

c>+ f s i, i dl. 1I

p o a i e i v e sun,. Similarly t t~dilea1 SO bran u

i1 u
r .vate

2 -

'il\d. 1)9f

p r i v a t @ 1oanc anti m2:til.f

; ; r

PCL~UI-e!.

e ; ~ : ~~ l ? r ~ + . i t l'ibiie Le.-,n

s i ~ ; . r iccrnt if out4 IOU fro--a

S i : +
;v(r*

?.c.raLa. T h e
oi' I f4 dr.tl I:;!.

FLL~.~LL~ uf .U~ i\ ) ~ lt tl i l ~ l i ~ n i . 1 . fir. ~

An .:

F I ~ C I I 'L a r : t

determined by t h e conr: i usion tha:: can b r dl-awrr

the ao0.e
4unJs
+~-otrl

c : ;cu.~.;idtr ~ is

k i i ~ tt h e r . 9 ;.r~;;

r';arc i i!i i r r lg3;-)fir-81

z, src)ni+icant autfl@w0 6

T!is

L r w f ci t11d J be iinaer t d k e n / o r for s 7 Lc ~ n ruii!~ + tai;t:-as f a r . 1973-5 6 i5

i
1
!

the year 19/5-76.

Ro.

94

cr~arus.
payments

Substi iuti ng thu

s l e v a r ~ t i. r yur

crs I r?

$ : t e

balancu o+

idaqtity, w e g e t !he i c l i a w i t - ~ c j ;

T'lle
1

:tjr,

.I.

ye,

. ,! .-

--

G'I..

a~

(2:

i ii

~IIP n~L j ~-c,~v+;~(-I~I.J dppP::trS ~

t . ,

si qni .i. i c ~ 1 7 L t.~ di ~ L . ; ? r ' . z ~ r ? t

utrii !<G?J..y i-.bar
:he
. i5 '

+ r~jn,
.

51.)

on?? r-ctspect.

. d + ~ ! l .h;v? u i
I !
,

C,r.ctrle caf i c I

..

.
!

Gee? ~ , ~ ! t . h 9 maqni tude as

~ortseqtcv-! t 1y

to

is o++set
If;

i t ic :

~ ) c ~ b t t(? b :that.

the,-e must
+ r u n # rest.

I>s).L.~.! beer1 a ~ w t ?!.<).ow

as; f cincir irt ttie rta;l~~ilal ar=c(h~n::

Ever1 1 4
t i .
1 l~ was
AP.

o+ i n d i cr
I

J fi

l-3:!5

-7k.

cia!. f 1 r ~ ,

undouhti;.j l y ,
1Y89--B1.
V?Z

t ~.;uu.i d i se
r - 7 t l t f !OW

~ n l a 1 .or* l i 11 scope
3

thais lo1

. that

! . J-

e r ~ a bes i 4s LCJ draw yet dinother

rnpor-tan+, corlc!.

uo,; orr,

5!1u

t . 6 C.t~i>d f~ r i . ~ ices-&.I. ~ ~ a h ~ t s e o s l d to ic7crease

durartg .the 5:lul.C baarfi.

Pc! tween

1 975.-7?3itad

1 Qt\a..-'Jl

t h e r e was A

si uni r cant

rttaliye
K h i ie
the

in

the dir.sr;rion c-f t!,anet cap1 : . a 1

i:tbt?:*-E!
~ i t C . ) : ? .

flows +conl ?.he t-e.;ion.

i n 1375.-'76
cask?.
1h

t4c.s
I

L if iJ
C;r,r.

ir

r e v e r s e was

the

t h ~ t th e

interregion3.I r43lai:icjrc~
o i ec~rlomic
i r!

are

110t

u r t i i ~ n e a : . 'b u t s h i C - L l . f i i-95ponse to inierylay

f

f ac.Lot .r- ..

1est7

shi + t 6

- a

t~nilarstancirtg the

rn0iurr~11d c ~ ' ~ r i u p a u ! - * i .

Ek-f t.4.9.~ -.+~df=y~r;-,y-.

W,? Ja *rot
tt-end i r,

:Li. ; ...? ; $95.

bfiv~. r.r!r>i ~ r t a l t t - i . d e

accv1.tnr.s 4ote

f fir,

&I\)'

p ~ ? . i ? t at: t 1.n1e b e ~ c r t ? the ;r1i..3- so~an';j.c.b:.

o b ~ e r r v i n g-21.1s tre:.?.isir!

but e#trwool at; fig t h s

buckwards at:d

t r itde balsr,!:u bctweon 14-15-7a &nc; l?dQ-l3l

1.

c:cnsu,rtut ~n ~ . ; < i > ~ . i rttire <ji or.ovi deil b y

Id83
tt~e

s u r v e y s ~t taab:,
Fegi csrc
' 5 ix t
ml-csik

t\?

sw+eiy

%&id

ti'lkt

(Ihti.

~crir~urt S L I . . T ' ~ ~ C I S ~f

cldve been tnrlc::

Attd

1 3 i + @ i - i!;.ll.'i n~

he ~ ~ 3 ry- 1~ c v c ! ~ &S l t i and

. i$ 5 .

protjaLi. :J .::nc.)r r;
4
-

a!:port surp 1 us
j. n4et-ence

on trade

accc~rn t d ~ i r i ~ : i the .j
by
t h

t i .

The J. i i c t e t 0.6

:i. r rein9crrced

data ~

Crr~

Lirlar1r:e

rrclvanct.re

dur?ng

the

prQ

inrJepc~f?cltrnc~~ per~c:id.

Tr-avancore

ha;.i

signi f r cant

t r d ~ s u r p l I.iS

.ir;r filu~t0.f

t h e c~l.:',fii-rl ; i s r i g . : d w
:i a a

I?:

ifialy

I::@ 11crrsd .::hat

;n

Chi*

. C w ? ' s . ~ q o t r - ~ . < . d ; ? sectur. k:ev ~ t l a

eq:or

d.? ways

en jovoJ

h siijiir

k scr pl u ! ;
I

eVt~iii
i r ~ L;; i

!-I

;.I>=> p9s.i:.

s nciu+!~~:Gcr.tce p

ij

+ican;.
Ga r e

7 RE. t r a : k

da+frc'tt has bt2ur;

t i

i E S ~ Q ~ ; L c:, t h 3

i . n t e i - reaional kt-ade,
i r i ' c e f f eqj ORWI tr'ade

t.l-,cr- w e i grct c . r

in

the

r
f i

.
t

tru:tae wa"
L
2tfiL'

s;grt~.i.ic.?.~.,xIy 1 ~ w e r
h + ; ~ d ' ~ i':'.;?2

in

th*

sarliev

years

Aria

* i

A~+Gv;,~~';~cJ~~.vIs

hava
f

p
i :

t h e p:.r,..sir t # i l it?, o ! .
i;

e!xpurt: sur.p.lus

c~rt the intnt'

t1.t;

irqi wial trade af c!>irc~J:6 I s& r

x
I

the

*?fit

P ie-- yc-a,"%,
Ljuvuur 9 ,

It!r-uuc;haut

~ i t Ll J L T I & ~ L'ICJ

F a i l

t r a f t ic a 2 . r

I:e,ra!

;.
a

Z-a.1 3 ^ctLa.f f l.~:

t:.x~+~.A+c1t h e

te~-minati~lc
1'3.323

L' Thciina<:, ; 5 a i 1 , C &;td

f?hy.;'.j. i:al
,;tit+

<:u~rntcr:-pai*t. *3C

tki
t

of

~-$SUL~)..C=
O J ~ ot

thr~:qh

.;:r'dd~i. titUSc

V I ~ V Z t183eK

r+t c:,~t+ 1. o w c ~ t ' / L ~ ~ i -f+ unite i

estt m&:ea
@ ! . k t .
~CQCCI

!CQ~:II tt
Fa-

d~tk r f l r j t!l i

i r
(10

h
c

e a6
e
v

pc-, L i. i t J ~ D c ! !tilence d t ~ v ~&$men :-l t,

tth./iLlUS IPQhi;Ott:+
C~.C(II

q t l i r i > ' c i tat1 v8

r e

.0
%ti

a& itrs f ~ ( r t t l ~ dutf lo*

+:!pie

fo

ll~bi~n evidencev g

sc.c~gcstsucre

and half - : * i nclepi:ncterrce a per i sd rs F r a p ?ii wt. l;hjrs+uai. of Europc:an (:&pi t.;i. t r'0tt1 t h e V J bin'kirtl[?,t,s ..~!.,LI . ;rig5 t r a u l s oc?rturs oC P;erai~ whit!:
ciu.ti Z OW.

Fir 1 3t.1y, .'

the . r l r f - , z a i decade

the.,. had

irair~l ?.&Led

. . ; l . ; r7 r q i;he ;,;i.~:i c , t ~ ia i

p ~ r .ad ! :,nrf
ii
ti

Cram industrf

di

S . * C T ~ ~ ~like 'Y

csii'. weaving.
wd*i
* :

F;sc:,c-arlilv
cr

, clrae

~ ~ ~ t f l flows e ~ i t 4t-mt

L,I~'.L CWI tt-ai

CJCt'.,'C?o);'~~iiidrt~
i \

~ t -v i y ~ ~Q I W C ? ~f -ay

)-eqla~ dut.1i)tj
the

L t t r S p + r i ~ r j~

compar :.r.c-;it . , : ;

iat;r.t- yec4i-S

as wci.11 aq

shrc-f?

rt.fas.ved bv

Otttz-r

~ ' 9 c j ~ 0 f 1i 8t ~ 1%

~ u e ~ x p .F 1 i. s~~ J R Y t h e relatively

IO~ >~ I ~P ;FI F ~~!c>c~~..# +or c?R the s

y t

CY;_)~U d~ ~,t . 8 - 1 9 ~

+jrijt tw fzv*

piarts

a,':d

iiz-.-tilal. ,I.!rsennc Lil~ s y~*r otl. f

; ij : ; l ? l ~

oC
1 he

it-t'-testfi~ent

O~t"ii!g

arrect central c!~*..volc.k.f i oft b j the Fi 17a:tc:~

any
fi;r,jar
.;QY~A&~ ~roblcms 07

Cc?iiift\.i'~s;l.r~~t~ aL*scj p a i d

a t : : . e ! ~ ~ . i ~ rtj .r.;~
i,.tsi. r,rnl!-

tile

Qf\.

Th6:

? 0u.s u.4. i21 sts.L t r.

r uvcn(,lc.s. Lo t h e p r i n i s l y

a.t.a,Lar; i;'i
CGRP@;t'.iit@&

Travaticcrr-e

aoci

';oc:rl,r!

we5

& ! . a 9

not

aciequately
India11

'f'hzrdly, it

!.~t)&lld appeirr

ti.~aL private

irlve:~tmer?t li>+.lo+v St-OT! try&! s

dace1 e r ~ 1 , ~ c wih w t

ti+

lnilia

<a the

region

al*:~~

cc~spat-@a to

tttc two

d~c;ade~ prec.i.ceeding tl:e

'!'he .
r f c

i.4.

9.r:~
J :

r'+'.;

at:b vp; y

i n\,-,~~~:nep? 1: 6, y e q i bi?al ~ c ~ r ) ~ . a +

~.c ~ i L \,.&?I L

t t l ~

thp

duri i:C) ?Q$c?

t s I 'ih!:: p t 7 r . i ~ c i . f :<er': f a 5 . l ~ 43
.;Js"sL!UCC
.

T('\t:! eatre

yruw.?.tl c>+
PC;,- c9n2:
&.i.

s t a t ? LJ0rft@-991:1E.
?
I ? 1

r_ictrii.?Q- t i ' l i ' j

~~el-j.c'j

a;\)? 5.37

t i i ~ :la "- z : , C:.Fid.i

~ 2 1 -+ ; i ~ t ~ ( s . : . '1!3r=5
1 ; ; l i . r .

. i nf'lnirre

0.F

:nni a
growth

hlr 1 s r p e greed
rii

pe:-

~4i.11:.

!.-atsa 04:
I

- i r t e sec~ri?dat-:r.
f a i l e d tij

eeCt0r' wan> i:f?at'.i\/ ha.:+

paf-ti+k:& k-C)uyut,:.:.:,y
0.i:

!i:ltiui?s.X

Keb-ala
j

i i l ~ t ? r-t&tii7tti*l

ecanamy

the

itnmoc$iat.i?

r nclepsi.~dancep e r i C

J ~ .

7'i;e eys4tirir L i r.~rt G . ! : the

Lt-encls
i r~

reqi oretai
F;$

GC

arrclni : ,

yruw+;h

df.citr:

bt-.csi-?c!
6 7 . 5a

:li\i+

:'tclt.i~-iial. ecortctnll~p4r.f~ i r ~ n ~ l i c ea phsncj:nennn that-

--

w e sha'1.: c o n t i ni\a to a?%%cr:-.de d:,,'.j

t n e subseqi!urir-, ph&scs

-..

n&;rtianar picite?-r.,.
arcuunt .lar

'f bus,

f ~:ir. s?:a%pIe, w n i

lt+!

f ond~rii.:ii? c r o ~ 1 5aL.:?irc:.
i1.i

i;l<,~& than

7 : ' ;pi+r c - e n t a+
CP.(SP.S

.?.fir.yt-csas c r o p p e d a r e a
? . ~ t ~ i f - t c i i nt qh e .=ercals
ar-oclnd 45 per-

I.

t t r s ~ i ? i 3 ~ (.:~~..axiil.cl L

ard

set-cbal

scctrsi.,S i i;r,r.L~*+

woul n
.

c.-)m+ t.u

0 1 7 i !/

cent C:IC i:ria

cummercj.al

gross
chat.

CI.~J~Q~Tt !
CI-up:: wso

a.
3.

'f'riu s p e c la1 j sat i on i n

per-i.ilni a i

C n e m!.trit

crlf,rxc'tant

ecwnomi c .Lr'a~rsi.orr?;ati or1

GCC~~*.-~-C . C i 2 7! :'.!l~! i"cyLar7

b t ! r . i i i y t h e ~ , i . > ! . ; ~ r > i i t l p ~ -06. i

C;.CISC;S.~

Give!) t
was

papul a+, I. c!r:

et-essure a!?d
?

the

b i l i. t \r wS'
of

U ~ I P t~ r .S 3c t e d

i ntpur-t
rapid

of faad

.:~VC)UC~!;.~.Q !THY'!,o.>

t r a d ~ :there
as

~~Xpansicrn a+ comfii=lrcicil

i;;r.ups
Ttwsa

irlko

t ~ a s t e lands

we1 1
CP. G , K.

real lacat it r . , i : a e.t , . &I.

CUI. ti v e l t s c i

1 . 4 . 1 . 1 ~ ta
br'oad

1
t r and%

CTO~E;

.,

15'783.

i n the

!)a.t.tE?rn r o r t t i ri;ia?d i r i t o tI>e p o s t i ntiep~ndcnci~: pet-iod

.A

c r o p p i ng
breaK

wi tt?

t h e col unl al pa.t.te!.-n w a s khat , du.e regi atial. .Faad .%el .F 5 1 . ;Ff. i cf ~i'tw i n the
gross c r aGpsd are& cirrder
padd,.

;:YJ

.til~ 6~rnptlasi s

to

gi\#un

ti w e

year F ' l an octlema:;;, the;

bagarc t t : e
I ?

i ncreitse, t-eversi nq
~ b ~ i ; r ~ a bd lu r ? ing

the
ti162

e a r l .ier

trsixl

j.n

kt>@ r.uL)~.trt;~un i

i i r s t !":dl? u+'
t i

t.3:.

f..rrltdr~.But
;:.I>&;
-*

ihe a? ea nl'qdur

commerrial c r a p i
211

t 4 9l d;. >. SO

l aL;-.r_ct- ' s s h a r e
A ,

,:I. cippgo wc3a tt*ea/peye:tn.;. A!

c.j lrn rrc!nci L u

is*?.
~ crc L

the total gros.5 etaa1 1991? Thr

crrpi; hhvi

i i;i>g
W

~&s,::;:t~t)r~

per !cod and p r i c e

tycit?

i I ? * J L ~ L . ~ L !j r \ > t e ~ i ~ t a 1 7 bid: t ti05

t,t

rweti

r)wk be

~0?'rel~t9 td > the

n.~iOrt~l

t.'17ct6 :. 1 i:la.s> %i?~rt dccc-at ~ n i croijs i i ~ h z: ; !?

dcd,nz!?ated the

5 iii.I, 1. -2.-

.V

.
i

:;ha

t - e t 3 i isrniil

II

ii

S C C ~ Q ~ has

it1 ; a

d i s t i rrcQi .ic i < < a j * _ 0 : ~ t 7 ~

W I I ~ I I P O ! I I P B I - Y ~t
I

~ ,th9 natlcnal pattwn.

2 1 -

1.h~
ir:l3

iI
1a r g e i
j 8

1
j f.t

per5trd

, d<-.r?tei
!
C L ? ~I '

t
.
ijttil

tt.~~-.

~ r . m t r ~ e ? . c i a I i ~ ~ t i procerc on
ci?fi~~?kri,;i a1 crops ter.tdin

in

r
r
?

. 1-IC. oncti ,
L
I

"t v a r i c,ii+
:

fucli as

L ; ; -

ee
I

c~s,\~?w r ' c q c r ~r . =?a

elementar J
agra
baseti

baF;.te
:c .:

,'J?IJic'
I

Non
ti-tr.
i

2I
I

1E

!)ctt.ablrl
v ~
I~IP~-+A

tnpcir
I

ti~;!!:e A I-i

e . 3i ~ y
t

decade6 a+

the

.
and

a,. n

-4

/ i ~ m a1l nu~r~tr?!' ,24

C~~E~IIS

c'ai
I

hiici

t ae tor I ea a1 s t .

,aiiw

dv

Ln

T ~ a v ~ r ~ c orlilri!lq rt?

c P : ~ P I 1r t i e
i

F IJ~-i. i.t*?i.

I-?owever-

their
1n

pr-eoence the

c.rcis

t . 5 ,

f i i : . ~ .a n y

s i ?;?if, #:an;
k+d

ctrarrge

G V ~ I - & i~

1:c.=-!l3ismi r~;;?~>~'i;f +i,rs?. q : ~

Ois ttie
Gitcm

C ~ ~ . - ? ~ ) C .! ; C .. QC L

ayt-an!--ocessing rrldustr t e : .

i t a r ~ d i r r le

s / p c . -.t.

O;

iti.rq.keC1 c ~ S L O ; I ~ ;industricer co~11:

iti:,j~tl:

dr.:(w orrly

l ~ . r ~ r ~ t & ~ - jt i t i ~ ~ t ' i u ? . i

+run! tho

.;)i\bst.itution % L i i t - < y

a+ p l arlneri

dctbel uVi{tk?i iZ

~?,riop L;tci

; : . t the

r ~ aitanal

1evel

Or1

tg-fe

other. hand, the pub1 i c rector. investment i r t t i l a i r l d u s t t i a i asr:ar

w i c h i n tt1.s r ertiorr wat; vr,-Si moaqfe ciurlng t1.1up e r i o d .
p.+
(5.)

The azber;:~

pub1A

s~=ctor-1 nveshien t r-rc.1 l ert;:ad gavel'rlticertt .old the

the

r nancial constr i t i i l t ~
regional
wcial
ar'td

the

scatti:

t3.i l u r e of

p o l 1 t i cai
i

pr'cssur E!

gr-u~tps

tlvest~nent. 'f'he r aqi 0 1 i i i 1

adequate renI:r.a1 rapi tal w a s more 1~credto tho p l a n t a t i o t ~

ii>

ensur i nq

a t

i d t r a d * %c?c t o r s +?.om ~ ib r ch t n e t.?:rupeane were

niib t h a t

t-crauli

hard1 y ail,+ trow

e% i ti ng. 'The net moderir l a r u s s c a l e f a c t o r i e s c(rn14

LIP i n t h u s t a t e during t n e psr-lad.

in

t f ? e I ndustrrj. *?.I.

gr..owtzl

wilbin c ~ f l ~ p a r s d u

t i

or eceadi ng

->wc;

dccalus,
lCJOi.
o

partic1~ at-1 1 v

in

t V ~ o saut:17er.1? W:~ral zt

CC)I-:S~ sti nij tbi:

~r:j"Ld;?ile 'Tt-averxtre
i'elativel y slu!.~$?i

Cuc:li. r! u e g : arr C rhomas Isaac and 'I'tiaf'ctir.aii

g r w * zit

As c a n b e seein .i:ranl tabl s 4 the s ~ c c j r i d a r ySectur.

t

; i

t.13 d-tar'~.? j. TS ti-$(? ska'te darnest:?. c

c;t?~on\jar y

I r ~ J u c tdec! i n e . ; .

Fitt";l'~et", wi t k i i t ' l
~,,i.ut;>.e% 1

~ e t ' t a rsha.2.-??

13-r

31te

f i f t i s s and

ee\rZia
'nti tpt

b8

c ( ~ a r d ~ . t ; e t " i s e aa u
! .Qw

b i i ; k ~ d ~ d acanuiny

iO W

COnSLlmp 21 i1i.l

i ! ' l ~ t 3 9 k i i l e f l < . . 33.!3i.t

lndi a H 3 F P r i a e r y Secondary f z r t l a t - y
---..."I"--.L---C-"------..----.------.-"-.-----..----..11

Keraia PiDP Prindt-y Secondary T~crtikr;v

---

l-------L---

--------.---.---

!?JO-S 1 'to
IqbI-bS

3.91

2.73

5.93

5.0.3

3.37

2.66

3.83

4.7;.

1975-76 t o 1988-89

4.49

2.54

5.29

6.Ll

2-39 -G. J2

S.78
. . . . a -

4.42
L . -

-C-.-----.--."---LI,-"---------L----------l..l--.-"-

--..-----..---..----------

- -.

Source1

K e r a l a SDF g r o a t h r a t e For ,1950-51 t o 1964-&5 cdlcu!atz!d fr9.q ?;lie d a t a p r o v i d e d D~ D e p a r t ~ e n to f Economics =r:cl Statistics, GGS: Fcl. the o t h e r s dL Ckandak and P o l i c y Group 11390) and E z a ~ o n l cS c f v ? v
1992.

The growth a f tire r e g s anal @cl>i>otfiy t ~ e grrs i t t c s a c c e ? c rai'o t : : ' . a , : ~

around mid-six1:ias.
national ecatromy..

S t i E, c e r t a i n l y a c o n t r a s t @CJ t h e esperieric:? t'-:c+l..ala i.s one e-f: ti?& +@IN r3gioncs irk 1nci:in t.l-tkt':-

war:

I m m u n e to

t3e- c!ecelm,dr=ibn 0.2

As
the
u.F

t h o inaian
t~ :j.45
per

economy f rm ti?+

mid-'slxti~g.

da.ta ii\ 'iablu 4 shawa

I' j snli

t h e growth of stst??

cent per znnu~fi dclrirty 19h4-t5 ta ICi'?";rF-i'SQ e r l c d whl le t h e n a t ~ o n a l income g r u ~ t h rate decl bnes Lo 3 . 8 per cent: p e r arincttrc.
don~ekiti c prodctct

Uerai trc

T..e
chonrantuin

rar;iurlai

sgt-icui tilr a1
r t w

g r z w t h iargel y
'I'twre
VJLS

maintained

the

czvsri l n t h e

phase,

si yrti f i c a n t e n p r n s i o ; ~
The 1nc7 ease

a.6 qv.oss i;T.appaa at-en i!t the s t a t e i'rocr: 234s khourpatrd hectares E D
SV)L% thousand ti9riares betr.taen 1968-61
J.~I

and 1974-73.
tt-errd of

t h cropptnq ~

irttensi t

y and

cet

sown area contributed

The

t o 31-

expansion

oi: gt-oscj

~ r o p p e darea.

area under 80th

and cereals t.i, expclnd, b u t + a s t e r r a t e ? ccrnt.inued LCJ p e r s i s t in the CSivanandao P.K. lYb43

commercial crops

t h e former

at

new' phase

a1.s~.

ntc;t-e.? r e m a r katl e

ptrenooenorr

that war

sharp1y divsrqent

+con the

rtalll~!lai ' e x p e r i e i l c e ,

was the

rcgi~~al 1nnustr~iaL p r o d u c t i o n f r o m
p r anted auc

step up og a i d - s i ~ t l e s i . I t has beat4

significant

that: in c i u s t r i e s such as enqinclet-ing t h a t c o n t r i h ~ l t e J

b : l ) n i + i c a ~ ? ly i to tire Sncfuz,tc-ial

'Llt"te walq17tage
cratrcroa1
I,:.. f<. and

;i-I

KeraXa
may

d e c e l e r a t i m ~i n l n d i a have very sod that t h e divergence ft-ofi The

e>:plairtob w i t h
reference to
the
KSubrahmnrao!
#fay

exp5.r 3 r n c e

be

6 ~ e c z f i c i t i . e s 3 0.6 regior!&l ~ndbstriai structure.

CcjliatI*ti~Fjr 11ai

P.

i L ~ 8 %Further, .

twro more p a i n t s

be nilteo in t h i s c o n t n x t . F i r s t l y , t h e t r a d i t i o n a l aqra based e ~ p o t - t induetries a r e w at a Caster r a t e than the n a t i r n a : aiso

averayacj .Far' their pccxZuct groups. S C I . C O R ~ there@ ~ ~ , was a buneh~ng
of

induckrial s e c t w s were o p e n e d upNew t-ero~rrcebased fjt-aauci: groups like rubbet-, ar?d paper proaucts grew i n t o p r o m i n e n c e .
pub1 I C i n v e s t m e ~ ~ and t a number of new

X t wotild appear that the decade ft-cim mid

sixtzes,
up o f - the

the secend rate

phase

also ane

of

si~);rificant step

of

investment

i n tl-re region. the

Tllo

dit.ect

c e n t r a l investment

in

in the central public: sector rcse to 3 . 2 4 per cent ~ r i ri7e total b y 19i'S. The per capita stair- p i an oxpenditur-e wh-rch Mas below t h e a l l fnaicr civer age d ~ \ irn g tlre f i r s f : .two p l sn t e r i ads exceeded the 1a t t e r if; the t h ~ r i l ana ffr'jut.kh ptarl purioda. f w e noted, i n f e r i n g + i C r i r i thr? b a l d n c ~ 04 payman-L.9 pusi t : ~ u ~ o-F ? Kernla i n i97S - 7 6 , rlre pr-eceacling year.{; r f i t r ~ t have taec? at?@ wi t h net in+'low I nvesti lil a
Kerala
iiler eased and

reyiorls share

funds

iiltc,

t h e regiuii.

Stranatign-,si

nce M i d-qpventi es

'If>@bwcryancy rn the procluci) \ t e i r c t i v i ties u+ t h e vttnomy was

ratiterg s h o t - t l i v e d .
t o 1988-89
AS

r a w

o f S!>P began to decalerato

ff-on

r r w n d tniil-.'severrtie?s.
only
the previous

T h e r a t e o f 01-crwth of SDP

durlny 197533-76.

2.59 per- csnt 1,erannLta

grmth

inuch lowor- thar't

in

as w e 1 I. as t h e n a t i c n a l incorns growth ki).ictt i w s r a ~ ~ c '$.4? j per c e n t pat- ailnuin during the sam2 period. I'he aeclitie i s e v i d e v t b e t ! ) i n the p r i m a r y and secondary settor9 o f the e c o n ~ m y . There ~ a an r a b s o l u t e decline i n production a+ most c.~f t h e sgricut turd1 crops and output oi' tne traditional it-~dustries:. The per caai ta output o+ agtrcul t w e , other p r i m a r y act~vities etid industry decl rned + r a m Rs. 385 it-I 1970-71 to Hs.94H i n 19OV)--Ci7. Qn1v i n the t e r t i a r y sectors d i d there occcrrad dn a c c e l e l - a t i ~ f i i n the grnwt)? pa~-tic~\iat-i%: C ~ s t r u ~ ~ L and o n ~ O c l serv'ces. ~ i nrrspite t h e acceler-atf oil i i l t h e qrowth of the service sec10r, the per capita o u t v ~ ~ 1 t7 a . j virtually stagrrated during tile OulF boon decade 4rom 1975-?h 923 1905- 86. Evidently, given t h e autf low of f ~rnds and i t n p a v t leakages, which w e have discus~ed earlier, the tmpact o t remittances on domestic emplovasnt and output i n t h e reqian ha5 been m i n i m a l .
phase of.

In

the a g r i c u l t w a l sector ooseibi lities oaf expansion at t h e

extensive margin seems to hava been exhausted b y tlie m i d . - s i x t i e s .

In f a c t , the grosu. cropped ar ea dl?cl i nod to araund

heztarss by
1086-8'7.

2870 t;housa~?d

S o C c ; r clecl ir,e Ln

iISt

sow\ area and croppinp

50

intensity c o n t r i ~ t d e b.to ,tile abovu outron~e. Urrl ike the trofrd

a , in the new phase t h e e:;pansi a r r 0.c: t i l t ? commercial crops was at thc expense of tho f crod crops. The, 1 a t i e 1 - s share i n the gr&s cropped area declined fro?n 4 1 per cent i n 1476-73 to 31 per ceni: in 1986-dl. W i t h i n t h e con~mc-rcial c r o p s the area under cocanrit .and at-ecanuk dec'i i n & m i l d l y w t l i l r there was a phenomertrl expansion cif area under r.ubber.. The ekpansion o+ coconuts into t h e paddy lands has rrot i!een sufficient to compenoate f a r ?.he
Sornters loss to rubber.
The nat sawn u r e a under paddy dac1rfic;ci as

much as

by

20

per c a n t ,
19913

pat-t-

of which

tias

gone

+alLcw.

LNarayana, D. et.al.

industries on which elre rc&cional i r l d ~ t s t r%I i recarvsry trd5 v i d l ng t;avn y e t to aci.'e their presence -f el ;r: in k e t a a l a nlcrsrnwf?i i e t r - a d i t i a n a l resource based, sxpor t 0t.iantsd A i : d c i s t r i e s 1 ik s war-irte praaucts, cmrr.,
sulrise

In tho industrial aectar

t h e rtcw

cashew.
due

wcjcjd,

ceraml c e t c

arc? exper i er~ci I-18 a phase stagnati UI.I

0.6
1 . d ~

t o constr.iiir\ts

c a n the s~.lfipj.y

materials arid advcr.sc

market cot~b:ti.ansi t o r . +t\ricire pt-oductu.

The per+orn;anre af public

sactar ragqed behirrc! .s!::par.:tat.ion.s artd there has been si gni f i c a r d d s c e l or a t i un i rr I'ieM pub1 i c srrc tor invcpstmetrt
Wliv the

p1entriFu.1

savings

iJjd tiot

flow

into

producicive

investments i n the dotnost ic economy i n urdur- to cater t o the fast

in t h e reqlocr ic the central quastirsf? a+ ttte ccmtemparary development c r i s i s i n Eerala. Gn answer would reqic.ire examination of historical l v
g r o w i n g consumption requirements a+
?he peaple

c v o l ved

stractures

of

r s g i orwtl underdevti.1opment

problems

r.F

resour-ce dopl &?ti on and e n v i ranmsntal d&qr.adation, inappropriatrr development policies, centre-state r . e l a t i o n e , and so on o task beyond the scope nf our present paper. A 1 l t h a t w e shall do .Cctl-thur i n t h i s dirertiori is t:o draw attention to the direct

i m p a c t uf i i ~ i y r a t f ~ an n t h e labour &nd l a n d markets,

the ~ J ~ T V E P S ~

e f f e c t 5 of which

may b s argued

r o have reinfarced

t n e tendency

towat-,as regi a n a l ccunaini c s t t c p t ~ wi t on.

Prversi.e,,.e.C f .~~.?-,-a,f-.~r_n1-~.ra.f..li. .qrf?

&%set pre+t?rerrre for 1&!7c: and
hauseholds

bui l d i c l y s wri.nnq ti?e

the

tnaqrarlt:

l a an a=pect
j.ri

c f which a i i

micro I e v e l studies a r e

in acjreafienr:,

Even ttcauqt~ t1-m

estimates of sxpendllutp.a cir~ ti?&

above two v a r y ,
p r o p o r t i o n of

a l l s t ~ t d l e at h e y account for

the

pr-epzjnderanlr

t h e migrant: hucrsettalds'

irrcorrre a t t e r nrcwLing

kha

c u r r e n t consumpti an espendi 'cure. The tt~arked d i # farence betheen t h e mi grant and non mi g r a n t hausuhul d s w i t h respec.t; to h8~tsX nq c c ~ n d a t i a n s , l a n d and y u l d acquisitiun haa b e c n well a a c ~ t ~ ~ a n t e d . The above esset pr'eiersnce 14hic!?. tras b e e n wi d e l y d e c v i t?~1 ~ h i ) ~ l bd e ~ r n d e r s ~ u airl d a betltei- pet-spectiva,. Fcjr. a ntaja!-i.ty of t h e , migrants, who anr;r;d 1 %ma%1 p a r c e l a uf l arid pt-i av. to m i st-ati oft CPrakastt, a , acqt.ti s i t:ic;n r,.f a mediu,r~ g i z e d h u hd plot and c~ ~ ; ) i 3 ~ i td i ~ i r ~ b ~t a 25 a i a d d ~ i -to gaz n S U C ~ A ~ reopectsbi S j. t y c'arn~r;nw..irater;i t h t h e : r e;7hartcsd b r!camct. The r m n ' f i nanri al asssts J i4s l a n d , Gui f d l ng and j e w e l 1e r y w i t h p u s s i h i l i t i ~ s i of s l g n j f kcant can1 t:al gains was a l s o rational ct'lai c e gi-l,lan theiti r i i i tcr3 Z rtaitcj a l r asaur.ces and en t . ~ ~ p i . - & iI> al ~ ~ l t.ai. r ents & h icti were uf t s n 1rtsuf F i c i e n t : +or actcceasf ul re1.F empi u>rt,tei?t vcritures;. f'her..:+ is nc- dcjrrbk ,~l;l.rat tile E j ~ ~ l fi n L g t - a k ~ . ~ r rlc ? r l t ~ . i b u t . e d aipnificantly ta a cunotructr~rjn bzom i n Kerai a. A v e ~ a g r - nun19ar ~ i :?to~:si ng p l anr, sancti csned ar?nually in KeraLa duubldd between 1775 and XVSB. The! s;cpansian a i t h e c o n s . t r u c t i o n sector' 1 5 alsa r e s fl e c t e c i i n "c-ta r a p i d expansion of irlcsrr~e a r i q i n . a t z n g f r o m t h i s s e c t o r LG. Bapl. kuttan, 17983.

The i ncreased demand f o r construct i bn 1 nboctr wf t h i n

cmpXed

Keral a,
workers,

~ i t ht h e

migration

of

s k i Xled construction
1.9Q63.

reeul ted i r t

r e l a t i v e s c a r c l t y o f these workers and escalation of

Iztleir wage vates

CWari.Xa1, K.Nm

It has

bean f o r c e i u l l y

argued

t h a t the

acrtclnomous increase
off

in t h e

wage r a t a s

in t ! ~
irl

C o n ~ t r ~ ~ c t . ' .sector I~n t . r m cjyered i

structures that
be

sympathetic i n c r a a s Q
r e l a t e d labour 1Y9lf.

wqr!

rates i!', ~ t t l e rf;&+2tors g i ten %Fre i n t e r

mark.et

e x i s t i n t::erald CKr-ishnan, T.N.

It w a i l

h i g h l y u r i r & a L i s t i c to a t % l c r b u t et h e wage escalation

tl>c;

i n Kerals

to

r e z i t t a n c e indilcecl ~ u t - m t r u c t i ~ boofit r ~ alone b u t there i a :io

to d i s p u t e t h a t i t d t d p l e v a n irnowrtant r o l e and .that t t z c o n s t r u c L i u n sector aiztaci as 3 b.iacp l e a d e ? . The i n c r e a s e An waqes f a s t e r than i r~creclse i t ) p r ~ L \ tC I v i - t y i n the agriruI iu~'a! sector i s c.i.aitnen to have nad n deletcrr.iaus, impact on output emu1 ~ y m a n t i n t h i c, s e c t o r L Y a n n ~ n wr\d Pushpangadan, IT?@: Krishnai,, 1Br't 3 . Ct-a~pj.ngio t e i ~ st i y dnd grass cul t i v a t c d Idtic! decl i n e d arid agri cul turd1 uu.tput s e a q n a t e d . Despite the d r c l l r l ~ r r garaf .i tabil i t y o f aqricultctt-a, iancl c o n t i n u e d to be a pre+ev.red asset: h e l d i n y due tu. p w s ' ~ i b i 1 i t i e s o+ specuio%ivr prof j.k t h a t ccruid be maae i n a p e r ~ c d oT- r i s i v g land p r i c e s ,
need I>herlomwnai

i t ~ c r e a s si n l ar\d

p r i c e s .tor

I-esi denti a1

51tr;,

avail i n the
mirr-o

F-ut-al rreas, has

61~i-:t I OI?PC!

heun ~ ~ d ye commented 1 upon

1 eve1 s t ~ l dcs i

e a r l i er
time

by k k ; ~

These ~ b s e r v a t i c s n s w e

collabara?xcl b y the
f o r selected

avai. 1.abie

series dsta an

Lana pcicl.5
i9U7~.

v i l l a g a s LNair

P H

G 19B9;

Varqhesa,T.O.

T h e clata p r o v i d e d

b y the G 1 1

T n l i c ~Dabt

and

Investment S ~ r v e y r

reveal that t h e value a+ l a n d or~nac: by a r u r a l househol~:: i f ( Kerala increased ty. dr011rrd 6@U ~ e r - cent. between 1971 and l?ifl.
Dcring
order af
the pr-evious

decade, t h e inoy-@age has been

'The aouve

on1 y c n I:?:e

180 p e r cent.

~ s c a l a t i o nin value

of 1 i d f t J
Irl

ti9idlngc3 cart be o n l y e x p l a i n e d b y a pr~snornanaL e x p l o s i o n

I*rlJ

prices.
income

Even a land ownst- w h o is i>ot keen on maximising- currerlt

f r o m the

l a n d would h o l d

onto t h e

l a n d for e p e r u l a t i \ ~ r
erctraardrnarily b , ~ g i t
i ~ c o

r e a s o n s in

t h e above situcltj.on.

Thus the

l a n d prices may h a v e acted as

a o r i cul ture.

a balV.rier-to investment flows

T h e above d t S+cu%iSI. ctn wu~il d apparertt l y seem

,that

have

sceptical
19863.

uf

to s.:tnpp&:)r-t: viel~s de\lei.apmsnt l m p a c l c?+: t t ~ a

rumi ttdficas Ls@&! /or

i S S U ~ ' ; ~i n\io: . J C ? ~C . I;:@&& y artd I r a n

P. 1.1.

1 7 8 5 ;

and S t a h i , C.

On t h e c n n k r a r y w s

w i s h to clnphasize t h a k

the developmental

uu.tcai;ie need I I G ~ necessarily tmve b e e n

as it

njrci.'a snvirunirtant in t h e stat$ beer1 coniluei ve t o increasi tsg aqri cul t 2 r a 2 p r ~ d u c t i v i ty. Gf W T S Y S ~ . w h a t cuul d b e P ' A ~ sezl dss & d(c'.it i c i s & a g a i nst t h e davei ~ j p m ~ i i ' k a l . CunseqLtence 04: *:.he t-em1 ttscnces i is t.t.kat; t h e y have tended tc; t - n i r t f a r c e t h s p r e e s i . s t i n g st.rueturc;?s3 C ur~der-C)eveLoo~~ts;nff ra::.~tt??. than braat:: thztrr dawn. 4 t at.,), rate t h e above d i s c u s s 1 c~rt 3 i*n<! and l a b a u r m a r k e t e iias 1 S. T. tl e r . , s L evance i n an e x p l a n a t i 0i.1 n G ~;7u 1 0 i ~ nvcst.mant irt $ 2 1 7 ~1 argc? seal e i ndustci a1 s e c t o r .
has
accurt-eci 1n

Ket-ala had the

Section 4

Reaional Economic C r i s i s a a f l e e d +or a ~ o t i e vReorientatitn The var-9ous strantl~;o f disi:ur.sions 4.n tha prevxouu sc+.;cl.ics~.: n ttvs 1-agi orla1 domesti r, p r o d u c t , ccrnrsump r; i or!, i nvest.rnent , remi i: tances, capital flaws and t r a d e b a l &nce i n variu~cs s e c t i a r ~ s c a n be poricjdi sed ir\t.o .three d i s t i n c t pease5 a5 is
p r e e e n t s d ~ r > t h e cl-tart haictw.
'Ciftieki

T h e Ohas& :E aslertiir;

tktrauqli t.i?e mi<!-

and t h e

early sixties,

pnase 1 1 r a n g e e between

. s i x t i e s an6 mid-'seventies and phazis X I 1 t h e periac! fheraafter. n ~ ~ r?q r . i Ptiasa

, c?31151 sti

IX~

OC

the birst

one

ha1 i:

decaaos~of

ttx+ })7ast,3 rit&?i;Frli':isfiC6?

pm-i ad, Ker.aL a

was 6

t\ip ~ C A Z

backward =::<port w i e n t e d . arartomy w i t h l w i

per c a p i t a p r o d u c t i u n ,

and 1 u w i ~ ~ f i ~ u t iart. r p t ~ The 1 arv ~r.ivest;mg.trk rv-esu?:Zadi i~ #-el dtivs1.y

,

el a w qruwth.

Uni. l a t & - . a ~ ,paymante o u t o f

f
7

t h e acenomy i n tho Sut-m iL s shadow .an expnrt

P e p a t r i & t i u t >c r f

a a d a

surplus or, trade

ac~oun,L. In t h e 9 h a . s ~1 1 ther--e is a s i e p '-!p r'>+

Irlvzzatficznt., p a r t l y .cinartced b y InCI oh of p u b l i c sector invc;,itnc;i..~t

and t h e grawth r a t s accelerates i n contrast to r e s t o+ India.

. . . . e

---..

fikase j c . i .Kg,u5k:q?>2a2;fie&ppaent
__r----r-------------*-....r-

hise 56% acd early ' C i s

. . C r . . . " . . * -

..--- ..-----..- --..-- r---------r------~------L---r:,?;~ :: h i r e iII

aid-'19s through 'BOr

si rice inaeoend1il.g

ait-'tb t o tiG-'78s

Fe: cap::^ fDP

rrc!ative t o indirn avhrapet
!orw

i %er

I ewor
SW: d~eIetation
ilo~prtban

-.--ICIIL--I--C*I.-__-I---..-^----..---*-"--

...-

. . . . I . . .

L " " ..---..---LI---II-.I---." -

'dr~th of

SUP: gins.?r
(!~ilbrtnafi

Joaw t j c
?ro6i.!itian

itat i6nai

$53: a r . ~ ~ i ~ ~ a t i p f i lkibr:er inan nat:r&al rvst'aue!

firtianal

average)

-.---------.-----.--"--.-. "---I-.C--..-*"--.----------"------~------M--------"---------------Investrmt
--r--..---r------.

average)

!on

rises
Iw
-

falls
biqh
f oreiqn reri ttante rew t tancelSDP raticc shrrqiy

--.----r--r-LI------~----r*-------------"II----lr-..--------

Cinsulli.?~m :ow
3cd ttaclca

m n l y intwrtqional

~ r l n l y interregional

~ni!ws

r lSC
relatively small
C q l t tl flcrw
deftcits

sharp increase in deficits

kt autf ion

kt rnCIaw

Wet outflow
.
,,

---.-~----.-Y----~---..L-.---.)---^-~-UUI----CC~--UI-------CI-..----C-U-II-~-------

3 1 . :. ii 7 44
'

is:3 4 .-

-.

I I
i

tile

gt-c~\~th i r G ti18

5re~ii:jnal

ecanomy sharply

.A

.. a k : ~ e e?raf:cl.E; i

b:,c:t

ic

'1'tte par zdax

i-?i. 9:) CI:J:~;:U!~!@~?; ifl

i?ccir,s;;riiy; i.S

.$ wc l .i L t.iite;i t2.c trlts

~?KI:+s~

a+ law output. .i nS'2 a w o f remi ttanccps.

multiplier a f f e c t
$ ~ t i > da ~r e

DL(&
G
i-IQ

tc
.

tnc
:

!.iigij ~rfipc;ct
3
1v

pro!ltensitv

3:i

F L i i ~ ? i > ~ rt-h e
I ?.;i.lt ~-fur- net ~

channaixss.;j:

t -21~r t

1 end i ncj o u t s i de t h e retji on.

Th\.is rue h a v e .vat: ancrtl-tru- t:,ac.-adaj.: r-t;gian i .;rldi r i q

?tic
t.c!

, ."pat

o,! trade
-

daf eck t. bacb.ruard

rest

CI*

It.~Tjia.
tfte

t-ssult.

1 1 ~ sbeutr
the

emergence a+

hiqh tonsumption

eci3non1y w1'2?1
$01.1 o 4 u iI

d :?&~i:~;ai-C;

p r ~ d \ . t i : t i i j i i;.ii%@. ~ US car1 b e :see17 ft-om the

tc3tw).

I e;.!erci ~ us

e:<:pendi. t~,re in

t . 1 ~ state, t h a t

iS

cisr1~~111p t i isn an3

i rivas.trmsn.i, ha:+

bee:? sign.{. f. i cant1y . in excess

~f

s t a t e dciaest i c rat- o~=IL~c'L

t-;

O + f?
01-

ili
+i-e?i

*here Y i s Income, i ' dmestir, product aar?.d F( net: incfi,na -l.lisrrs

o i l . t r i d e on accorkrlt cf + a r & ~ . g n assets

rerrtittanceo.
12;

O = C + X +
E
2s

<f(-Pl:r

where C is c:ur\srclr:ption, i irivestcnent

X e x p a r t s and M 1rnp0rt.r;.
(3i

c + 1
,5585

-r

{ X

. . a

r4)

whcrc E is e ~ p ~ r t c i i t u r a . Substi.:utirtq

bata Cov 1988-81,

(4)

w o ilave:

2295 c 3854 u 4366

year

The tutai expendi tur-e $.athe

near1 y 23 per- cet~s'ltlhgheF t h k n

1'?9@-Bl is Rs. 4366

C J - ~ ~ ~ E ! ~ .

--

t h e sLate dacz~estir,p:-oduct a+ Xs-

39#9 crc5r.e;.
etch-tummy

The s i t u ~ ton i Yeveal c tile qragi 1 i t y 04. t ? ~ r~ngi ? i:*!>aj

In

case of a ssriouc; d@clrne

4;0

.irorrt M i d d l e E a s t eiSkhar ddr

in kf?u remittan+@ r 9 . f i . a ~ political. i n : ; t a l . > i l t ~ y c v , &I\)/ rjtF:err

eve1s

$actor-, tlie
can
re

preesnt expfrtai id-e

i n the regiooaj.

&Lr>ni;iity
st-

~lac~i !ktained

an1 y
uf

t'ct-ough

. z u l ~ san t ti . a:.

h ~ r r . o w 'rtg r

d i +j. i?~?st(nerti:.Clr.,.3m u ~ i t r de i

t17~ :.'S~~.UI-I.

In the
ir c

abse!kct+ sf

Aii j

compefisatov.,i in4 low c;ri~%ufnptior) and

I

+unds

.to the

13sc.linc
:,be?

r.@:.pii t.i:ai-tresi,

curtail eii, lria izt:\?'?.nr laadifiq tc rever'ss r n ~ t l t i p l i e i - cori"ir?ctian o+ the atate d m c . ; t i c

9f'Cl'zd~C t

;?vestment waul d ; ~ a v s' ; . a

L C ! ! q3 ....r:!:+d,t"
, .

I
7's

presarrt p ~ t f . ! o+ oti!~eLuprhent is
I it

i:l~ar.~ uosustninable. y
acanony

ttsr

recet;.L i-;eveLuprnanirs

k h e qat:aclal
W e

rras added
'ihak

p a l 5r:ancy to -ki-ie ~;:i tuati an.

have argued el cjewt-tet- a

tti;s;

reqzcjnal
aovarsq
I

terms

CJ+

trade

+clr ttie

i s lj.k e l y
and

+u ttlave

ill

directiifi.
ttrt-s

C'i'hamas

Isaskc, Reddy,

Uuvvury,

14922

a.tner- ~ ; i. rmar y cornctiodr k.1 6+x,pctr-tar-c, K e r a L a d i d nut k~c+'fer +r-am acjverse t e r m s ti+ trade L O the l a s t +aur decades, Tfie 1 7 t . 1 Id d e c l . ina d u r i n g 1960-.75 wjra m ~ l r ' t ? tnafi campsnsatcr! by t k e
ik

~igoi+irwnt increase u n i i ~ e most a$ t h o

corfmioclit i e4;

rrk ti>*

t e r s t n s o# t r a d e

since mid-'70s.

firdl

;OY-icilary e x p o r t

cainmotlf.tfes

t h e pr-'ice~iof

'Tho

+ram Ksra3 a b i ci not crasl? af tcr- the boom c4 mi d-'71Es. latter e n ~ o y e d bauyant and r-elativel y s t a b l e denanr!

r a n d i t i o n s i n the interneitionnl
for
rubbet-

market; and the protsctecl

India.
0

tnarket

and coconut,

within

cumber-

of fac'tors
had

af f e c k i n g t h e s u p p l y of

K e v a l a ' 3 Soreign e:.xpuvt coinmudi ties

kept up the prices thcuugh the *first h a l f o f t h e ' 8 M s .

the history of
ttte
S U vi ~ VB

3ut g i ~ e n

cyciical pa'i-tex.n of
: Y ~ ~ P i i :

uutpat q r 0 w t . h ant5
it-.

prices o f

psrer~i\idStl C
C 0 f i m ~ d 2t i e s

is

urti J. ~ . R Z y tielat P'.t>~%e canclf ti on9 w i .11

1nCIeI:r rti tei y .

ace

61

downwerd -i;renci

the gr ices 04 ntdny crf

lii

tho

already
supply.

visib2e.

the

lunqer

term
froc!

cornustitintr to
a
r u b b e r and

Eefald'a
8 n C

t.xpou.ts
Q+

is lil:.eJy t.0

interroit'y

SQUPCUS,

fn t l ~ nat.i.anal market
%he 2 nternational

it

is

c r r l l i k e l y that the present levrat

p r o t e c t i o n and high prices for"

prices CaiI cont inur i rtdef i n i tel y qji verl t.he new l i $ere1 isaki un p o l icy r e y i ma. Xi\ c m t r a s t , t h e prices e > f tfte m a i r ~ :il;tpou'f: catnmndities af Kerala Such as grams, sugar, cetraertt, steel arid p9t.ro1eurn a r e l i k e ) . y t ~ ' rise + a s t e r Chc*r\ t h o qa!rc=;ral Q I " ~ . cI ~ ;?vu.~. as ;in k t ~ e past. Ti>+ guiicy o S curraiiing t h e s u b s f dies i s going to +wee ?,;erala t b increwsr rrgI y re33.y , art cspeil mar.ket purchases. The i1e.i: recult: frl the 1 i k e t i hood of adveu'se mvernenl; 111 the terms oC t r a d e which would be a further- d r a y nn tho impruvemc.i~t the rsr?.X income 0:'
cuco~uts divzrrced f rc,n

t h o regiun. Y e t anattrecr di sturbi ny trend has b e e n growing

?:t-~e m ~ u r ting t evider~cc

supply cotistrainks ! H i4 : f s e regiorral expo?-ti; dcticrng t i h i !

eighties.
exports

Un1 i kcr!

the
5

perai6d bt?.1:~rerr~id-sevent'icts regional

ataynate
dLcrLng

hzvs

tended

khe

eighties.

Trt:?

un~equlated t r a d e

generated

cornpurs~ar~sand

ir.tc&nat:ives hake

caused resuurcs d e y l e t i a r l &nd eco1ogicaX d e g t - a d a t i a n w!tich tartar are leading to a dawnturc? o+ t h e exports bict a l s o af-fecting t i t p other* s e c t o r s af the economy tt7t-ough w a t ~ i .s c a r c i t y , depletion ol Local +acid avai 1wbi 1i t v , raw material sl?ortages to cottage industries, e t c . I t is ?)if.+ icult to ease tl~esr; c a n s t r a i n t a i n the st.rort run. In the sixties t h e r e a l incant& e+.ltect of the t n l l i f deterraratian i n barter terms t o a ~ r u a te x t e n t t a a mi t i g a t e d by

t h e r a p i d expanGron
case today. it

of the q u a n t i t y of exports.

T h i s is not t h e

wauid anpear t h a t Kwala is also deterloratiart in t h e income t e r m s : o f t r a d e in

g a i n g to +ace'a
new phase.

'Thers is an urgent need f o r t - ~ o r ~ e n t a t i o0.6 n tna deveioym~nt

tcwards emphasis on the p r o k e c t l a n uC common pt-aporty resocrrcesi end scol ogi cal regenerati an g p r i ovi +. y for increasing the aqricul tural p r o d u c l i v i t y by creating t h e e r x t ~ r n ail ties tttraugh scie~rti f ic land-water management and ap~ropt-.l,atii f aci l .it a t i i r g organ; uati.ocml atructurae: ~mprcrvcfient and d i v e r u i ricsti on a+ pr-nducts o+ ttcaii tionai inOu5tr.i~~ encouragement to pramotr vat us addi t i v n in the availaijle resources p r i ? r t i c u l ~ r l v Tufther pracesring activities in rubber, alunlirli~~i~ wood ., P Y Q C I L ~ C ~ S e.trl9 and d i vorei C.icai:ion of 'tP& i ndustr'ial pvoductiun to n t t w nor1 resource based r n o u s t r i a l sactar-s that are? s k i 1 1 i r ~ t r n ~ ~ and ~ vh e i g h value addiag in which Kerale c m l d have cornparati vv advantage. .
policiaa
state

a+ t h e

Left ti, itself *.l\e t r a d e

h i l l only r e i i ? f ~ r c etho existing

.For w c o n t i ~ u s
the development

structures and i h + r e f a ~ . - e t h e r e i s paramoctnl: need

social Zt=tsrvgntian tu g i v e a
prucess. Hathev than
productidn the

n c +

d i r s c t l o n to
new

i n i t l e . t z n g any

venturosSor:

direct

ta u t i l l s e t its l i m i t e d Sunds +at- p r o v i d i n a r n+rastructurez. and incentives f o r the product1 VP i n v e s t m e n t :>+ t h e Cunds t h a t today flow i n t o l u x u r y C O i I ~ u m p t i O n or out a+ the s-tdte. #parat: +rom the inefficiency of t h o s t a t e fiiachinery. t h e major hancfieap af t h e s t a t e governmcrnt in i l l t i t a s k 1% the lie?ver(a qiecsrl c r i s i s it faces t i < . I , . G a u r g e , 1'3921. The cant1 ncrous def i c i t s Sn the revenue account and tlic f a 1 l u r e to fund even th& m o d e s t plan a1 P ercations have asen the recurring Seatur-e a+ Kerala'a budget$ far more than a
g ~ v ~ n i ~ hau i n tgot:
decade

now.

The

scope

fur

significantly

c u r t a i 1 iny

the

social expend~tures is v a r y limited. , The praspects af the Federal Fi.nance Comml~sionst a k i n g a generous view of the s p e c i a l p r o b l e m s are also not: brigtrt.
adn~inistrntive or

financial c o n s t r a i n t s a* t h e s t a t e strengthen t h e arguments for review af t n e prcesent investment p a t t e r n and r - s + i x a t i a r r nf t h e priarxties. It also incresses the relevance of a more ducentr-ali ued participatory development s t r a t e g y t h a t can l a p the local resources and the urrutl.lir;eci man powor f o r t h a cr eatiun o+ e x x e r n a i j:ties in a y r i c ~ cture l and ecolagioal regenerati on.
The

To go beyond the above g e r ~ e r a l outlines of a new strategy of

development is

a u t ~ i d ethe

scape ~f

the p r e s e n t

paper.

fir r

cuncfuding

sentence w e s h a l l

unl y reesmphasise t h a t t h e present

trade ?ad s p ~ i - i a ls f a t i o n based un harvesting of natural roeources

o r processinq
trf

.agr~cu.ltur.d p r u d u c t s has

that

i f the

p r e s e t r t d r i f t a+

reached a dead end and t h e K e v a l a economy continues the

p r , o s p e c t s f o r +uture are rattrsr. b l e a k .

t Tho pvestmt working pa.prr forms a p a r s t o f a larger study ~f t r a d e and development expet-i ence o+ +::ern1 a . Some o+ the +inding6 were pt-esen2c.d i n a sernloar organised b y ILO-CSRTEP a t Bangkok in Q p r i l 1992 on Economic Consequences of G u l f C r i s i s . The authors wiah to thank 5 . Narayana and K.N. Harilal on an earlier version uf the present paper, J . 8raeE:umar +or Computat i a n a l asmistancr and D m G i t - 1 . ! a for typinq rervice. 3

C e n t t - e +ar Il)evel~~pmerlt Studies (1975): filgv~~~y--~~pfl&~-l_qy.m-e,r!~.,-+~~ Qe.yg2..~~,?1-gr!f I::,uJ ,$..qy,, Un f ted Nat.I ons Nsw L'ark

L'narrdok 441 and Isul i i:y Group ( 19881 : L i v i n g Media I f i d l a , Nsw Delhi.

x.~.,?-i-? ..-.?-<+ta-~.P~.$.$, ..-- T h e e c<mt?fi!y.,

Canin~urcoF?e~earci.i bureair C i 1 ? 2 8 j: "Ercn g r . at i Q P , ir,waud 'Rarnatt &rtc.r;s and Econamic G r ~ 4 . h a+ KerSals'',Hepart a+ a Survey, Barnbay. Ecrvvury

anal ysi s u! : Food Tni ruvar-tar-rthapi~ram,

1 :

Nata

t 1 '9SB)

"Chhncjin g F'ood GIaGi irs 2a.t.a r ~ c e 8hee~"

i rr6 KHI-al e o C S n itrnpuh1 i. shed)

.-. . y r ~ i i rance of I n t e l - Regi anal 'I r ade Ganguli B.N. : L 5 ' & 2 3 : fial;tnco w i t h S p + ~ i a L ReCerence t w 'c'ndi a", V.K.R. V. Raa st.al. (ad. ) );:a~~e.rsj...g-rt-~a~i.gt:~.a>. .Jriggj~jg+:~:r?l.,.Al-j-~.fj~tl-~o~,i,i~~r VOX 1 I.r Asi a Publ ishinq House, New Zjaini ? 1'-36=?.

-g

,I
.9 a p

Y v

"

t 5s1i QS Dsvi+lapmen"LStudies, Tniruve!i,+nthap~t-ani,

i1 992 ) : .- . K

. P1crno~)raph

: ,.

.,

. .

3. . . ~ & i+ o Y P' I ~ C O I B ~ ng )

P i m i ? l r : ~ " * L . . ~ L ~ L

Cetltre

+or

G ~ p i k k u t ' r a n , li ( 1 Q 9 0 ) ; ."i-lotlse Cor:strt!ctirsn Boom I n #er~ifaa Impact

on Economy and

Saczc+!:yU, CF!jj,val

XXV

(57).

Government cf K e r a l a, Di i r c - c t o ~ - t i . t ~ :-f t:cc;ncsml cs and Stati %tics, .---- ._3r1 ......---.---~?ci:~.ii~~~ .,A y y !2c! y y ...-..,., y y -...Eil?!! l . ~ ! ~ . f l ,.,. @~ 190n t.. .. (1982): .:w~ver r Thir clvanai'l~thapur-am.

Uaver r,rnent 0.f. 1<e1-ai a , S t a t e P l an!?i nq Board, ( 175'1b ) s Reportfin Insti t~ttannal CJ.,'idnee" Tnir-uv&nanPnapuram, 19t')I.

"'Task4o f r e (Rimer;),

Ouldti f . S a n d ' Modi, dshok (IC,:US); "Remittance& oC Indian fligrants to t h e Mxdale East: FIII Gssessit~enk w i t h Special Se+wenca to Ptigrar\ta 4:rorn Ir:ersf,a' , . i a p . . . . l C c e n t r e f u r Davel apment Studier , Thi t-uvanan thapur am.
h ia I . N. (19b7): "K:eraLa ' 5 P u i I dirrq Jndustry l n Trar-tsi ticm: IFI S t u d y on t i i e arganisatlinii o$ P r ~ d u c . t i a o and Labour P r o c e s s " , MPhi 1. T h e ~5 i Centr.cl +:or Devel upmerit 5tudi es Thi cuvar.tanthapur aa;.
Joseph K.V

Kera: a", Doctoral 1h i ruvanactt~apura~n.

f198h):

" M i g r a t ~ o nand Economic Thesis, Uni verei t y

DeveXspment uf of k:c?t-&i a ,

Kanrran .::4 P and Fi.tshpangat;han, k. r 19SrQ3)c "Dl ssect i ng A g r i c u l turn1 Stagnation i n Kerala : Gn A n a l y s i s Recross Crops, Seasans s.l-,d Regions", xn g-cW, vol.XXv (35;.

~ r a k a s t lE l . A,
Study",

Erg, V c j i .

: "pi-i v d k e Firtancing F ' i r i f i s X I X , No. YC9, i>ecembeb- 15, 1384,

i.r&c< J . b ~ ~ l h i ! r < ! IQG;): Fi.l~r :ontic Dt?vpi ~ j g ) t i k ? l ? t ' , "

in

Radii akv 1 snnart

I
i

! :

anc-l

, ,'fhe

"En?qrat ion, Ir.iw;trd fll~?~?,fie.er ,.-!j-g~trj:f+...l~.,

va1,Ia ( 4 0 ) .

t 5. 2 : ":!r~.I:el*-;;tate ur Inker-R(9qianal '!ra%dtt:: Safinc { - t i i Com;;.i.:aticjn w i l s n $ip~~i>.&L Reference tu i r l ~ l j a ' ' V.K',F<,V. ~ 3ao e + : . a l . tecJ., Paj~p,r_~-c~.:,rr.,t.Ia:I:~.1gp$l., Incct,.ts at:si 6 S T , Vol .f .I Rsi a Pub1 l shl ng Iia~tse, New -.-. ...*.,,-.-.. -. .-, -- . D e l hi.

S j va

5~1k~l1'aill~ . ri ~i

8alancz 04:

Sun~nda 5 . (IT:ig! " I r t s $ . . i . ~ c r t ~ c j r i a iZ r e d i ' t fat*, R g r i c u l t t ~ r e in Kera:l.a", PJ.Fh.iI 111esj. s Centre CatDeval o p m e r ~ t Stud:i t ? ~ , T h i ruvan a n t l i s ~ s ~ ~ r a r t ~ . Surtrty k.:. P. (1988: "Cnnsumpst i o n &ah&.vicsuv. t r t K ~ I - a l a - I I Citudv L?r Nak1ona.I S.'impl a c'j1.1~ \tey i ~ a ~ , ? - - S V 5 ~ / ~ 5 ta $ 2985" I 1 . F17:i it T'heei s C e n t r e ,f ar Eev6.l opfireil t: S-;.~td ies T : l i r uvanantt..a~~ct.ratn.

.*

Tharakao

c ~.WVACC)TP

k. 'rt-ti t-t~;ctai-iai;t hapur-am.

F. : , !1977> : "Mxqrati rsn o f Farmers .Grair~ to M a 1 abar : HI? Anal y&i s O$ i L 5 E c a r t ~ mc i Conseqeunces" , i-':>i .I Ttit::'5 ~~ , !::enf.rce For Devsl opment S t x d i es ,

M:ii=hacL

i L39Y) : "Ef C.eci:i vr Local L e v e l Dei i v w y DeY/i-?.l upmer t Re t ated P r o g r aromsa: The Case i34 1i r t i i a" r: C t i r l ~ ~ tan1 tl Fiqaeu. Pwc.), 4, C:NDP/ZSCUP Semi rtarorl E f S e c t i ve Lucziil I,eue~. lie1 $. \, cwy a+ t-i!~,i?an F<s;-..;uur-cc+; Ilevvel r~piner~lr Re3. ated Pt-.csqr-acnfltes 1 - t : ~ C; 3t E&ngi:.ak 23-27 Mat.cls
of

--.-........-.....---...-- ----...-.-,.-- --.Hu.rila;,

r7ssot;rcer;

1hatxas isaa~:,1'. Pi. ( 1992): "'rr'.adi kic3nd.l. Irldu~t:t.'-ies: Yoderni eat?. or, arid O t h e r . Prc;blatns", i.17 . . K . I . ! . ' ~ . ! : ~ . ~ , ? ..-..,7:hg!-!~?tr-?ti.~-&chL~~,~ A c y a F~f1.13.Al;- 1~9, ?':~ir-uvanar~.;:ltatji~i*~rn.

Thomas Isaac i'>. and i+audy.fiam Mar-rot~ar ( 1 9 9 2 ) : "Estimates o.6 Trac$e Uccoui?% 13 f k:sra : a 1 ';75-.7h .?~nl=i 1988.-8I " ~.lc71~:~~~-.~g.~~~a~~r:..2.46, C e r ~ t r c --fur Revvi tipmet'ttl S t i;dl :=s l h i t- i-rvananthapuram.

Tsaac, F?edcly, Ratn arid Ui~vvut-y , Nat a , ( 1992; : "Ray i o i ~ c ~ l Thui;las Terms uS T~.aCju+at-. t;:etPal a" W.qr.b;$-c~ , . . J?gp-tr. . r 1 . c i .2 . 4 ? . , Centre f o r Devel.opmerrt 3 t u d i es T h i ruv a n a n thapur-aln.

'Thofiat; Isaac 7 h . and T'ha?-&!::an,Ili chae:!. ii : An Enquivy i n t o t h e N i s k a r ical Fccm{-.s ~f 1nduatrj.al f~acl;hnrdnsr;s 09: Kerala & fitud.j/ OC 1 ' r . a v s . n ~ ~ ; - ; ? i n I . , Centre f o r i j e v e l apment 5 t c i d i es ! h :r ~nv&nari.tnapur. sic,

, -.

: saai 7 .M. a , i d Duvvttr i, i 1 9 9 2 )r T r e n d ar?d Patter11 Qf It: t e ~ . - S t a - tTr-ad& s il.!: Eeu-a:ia, ~?.rrt.~~.n:~-.--~;ip~t: r f orthecsming) Centrs f crr Deval ~pcrtwt3f: S-tudierj, 7't-IAruvartar~rt~apcrr.~m.
1'lwnls.s

Ver-ghestr f A , i I YS?! ''L.and I . 1r! Kal,-aZa w i t h Spacral H~.Fc?~.G~IL to B Tr.ans!:ers i n two Vi i Lsyas", K . Phi 1 . 'T'heeis, Cuntrs .For i)ev.ni opmsnt B3:ud:i e s i 1'3i i+~tvanan-L!~.ap~ii-din,

..