Review of Financial Results Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2013
Note: All statements in this presentation that are not historical facts should be considered as forwardlooking statements. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forwardlooking statements. Although we believe that our plans, intentions and expectations reflected in, or suggested by, such forward looking statements are reasonable, we can give no assurance that such plans, intentions, or expectations will be achieved. Such risks, uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to, (1) changes in general and local economic and industry and business conditions and impacts of the sustained homebuilding downturn, (2) adverse weather and other environmental conditions and natural disasters, (3) changes in market conditions and seasonality of the Companys business, (4) changes in home prices and sales activity in the markets where the Company builds homes, (5) government regulation, including regulations concerning development of land, the home building, sales and customer financing processes, tax laws, and the environment, (6) fluctuations in interest rates and the availability of mortgage financing, (7) shortages in, and price fluctuations of, raw materials and labor, (8) the availability and cost of suitable land and improved lots, (9) levels of competition, (10) availability of financing to the Company, (11) utility shortages and outages or rate fluctuations, (12) levels of indebtedness and restrictions on the Companys operations and activities imposed by the agreements governing the Companys outstanding indebtedness, (13) the Company's sources of liquidity, (14) changes in credit ratings, (15) availability of net operating loss carryforwards, (16) operations through joint ventures with third parties, (17) product liability litigation, warranty claims and claims by mortgage investors, (18) successful identification and integration of acquisitions, (19) significant influence of the Companys controlling stockholders, (20) changes in tax laws affecting the after-tax costs of owning a home, (21) geopolitical risks, terrorist acts and other acts of war, and (22) other factors described in detail in the Companys Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended October 31, 2012. Except as otherwise required by applicable securities laws, we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, changed circumstances or any other reason.
Improving Operating Results
Total Revenues
$ in millions
Homebuilding Gross Margin
20.3%
22.6%
$592 $358
$423
$478
17.0%
18.9%
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Pre-tax Income (Loss)
Total SG&A & Interest Expenses as a % of Total Revenues
SG&A
Interest
$34 $10
13.8% 9.6% 12.2% 11.8% 10.6% 8.0%
7.5%
6.7%
($1)
($21)
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
$ in millions
Number of 4 4 5 Sundays
Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
$139 $145 $191 $115 $167 $222 $118 $200 $224 $114 $203 $250 $149 $164 $185 $106 $175 $199 $130 $168 $163
$69 $86 $109
Includes unconsolidated joint ventures.
5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 May-11 May-12 May-13 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13
$112
$167 $160 $115 $177 $161 $124 $169 $169 $95 $133 $150
4
Dollar Amount of Net Contracts Per Month
Monthly Net Contracts Per Active Selling Community
3.2 3.6
3.3
3.4
2.1 2.8
2.8
2.6 2.8
3.1 2.6
2.4
2.7
2.5 2.2
2.6
1.4 2.2
2.1
2.5 2.3
2.3
Nov-12
4 385
Aug-12
Aug-13
May-12
Number of Sundays
May-13
Dec-11 Dec-12 Monthly Net Contracts
Jan-12 Jan-13
Feb-12 Feb-13
Mar-12 Mar-13
Apr-12 Apr-13
May-12 May-13
Jun-12 Jun-13
Jul-12 Jul-13
Aug-12 Aug-13
Sep-12 Sep-13
Oct-12 Oct-13
Nov-12 Nov-13
297
409
457
550
528
622
612
640
635
688
506
534
506
583
529
451
484
433
495
417
464
465
Includes unconsolidated joint ventures.
Nov-13
4 382
Jan-12
Jan-13
Feb-12
Feb-13
Sep-12
Sep-13
Jul-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Dec-12
Jun-13
Apr-12
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-12
Mar-12
Mar-13
Oct-13
2.0 1.8
5
Annual Net Contracts Per Active Selling Community
Actual Seasonally Adjusted
Average: 54.2 Average: 44.0
48.1 47.2
42.7
48.2 39.0 38.7
52.3
56.6 53.7 34.2 25.2 17.7 23.3 23.1 21.3
28.1 30.7
1998
2003
2011
1997
1999
2000
2001
2002
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
Calculated based on a five quarter average of active selling communities, excluding unconsolidated joint ventures.
2013
Net Contracts per Community, Trailing Twelve Months
50.0
40.1 40.0
38.6 33.7 33.6 30.9 30.5 29.6 28.2
30.0
27.3
27.1
26.7 23.2
20.0
19.6
10.0
0.0 MDC (Sep Q3) NVR (Sep Q3) Beazer (Sep Q4) Hovnanian (Oct Q4) KB Home (Aug Q3) Lennar (Aug Q3) Stan Pac (Sep Q3) Meritage (Sep Q3) Pulte (Sep Q3) M/I Homes (Sep Q3) Ryland (Sep Q3) Toll (Jul Q3) DR Horton (Sep Q4)
Calculated based on year-end average of actual selling communities, excluding unconsolidated joint ventures. Source: Company SEC filings, press releases as of 12/12/13
Active Selling Communities
During fiscal 2013, we opened 91 communities and closed out 71 communities.
Consolidated Newly Identified Consolidated Legacy
192 186
172 26
175
26
177
20
21
19
165
172
146
149
158
Oct. 12
Unconsolidated Joint Ventures
Jan. 13
18
Apr. 13
13
Jul. 13
12
Oct. 13
10
17
Active selling communities are open for sale communities with 10 or more home sites available.
Increasing Lots Controlled
Deliveries Net Additions
3,900
Net additions of approximately 7,100 lots in excess of deliveries, over six quarters
2,700 2,400
3,800
1,800 1,750
1,387
1,816
1,600 1,188
1,424
1,502
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
Note: Net additions include new options, new lots purchased but not previously optioned and walk aways from new options, including unconsolidated joint ventures. Note: Deliveries include unconsolidated joint ventures.
Backlog Growth Should Lead to Increased Revenues
Backlog $
($ in millions)
Backlog #
$848
$742
2,392 2,145
Q4 2012
Includes unconsolidated joint ventures.
Q4 2013
Q4 2012
Q4 2013
10
Gross Margin Improvements
18.2%
18.3%
16.5%
17.4%
Q2 11
14.8%
Q3 11
15.3%
Q4 11
15.5%
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
17.0%
Q2 13
18.9%
Q3 13
20.3%
% of Deliveries from Newly Acquired Land
39%
43%
58%
58%
61%
67%
71%
74%
76%
77%
76%
Excludes interest related to homes sold. During the fourth quarter of 2013, there were $19.2 million of impairment reversals related to deliveries, compared to $20.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2012.
Q4 13
11
22.6%
Leveraging our SG&A Expenses
21.9%
20.3%
10.6%
17.1%
13.8%
13.9%
16.3%
12.2%
12.4%
11.8%
16.9% 10.0%
* 9.2%
Q1 11
Q1 12
Q1 13
Q2 11
Q2 12
Q2 13
Q3 11
Q3 12
Q3 13
Q4 11
Q4 12
$ in millions
$55
$46
$49
$52
$47
$52
$47
$48
$56
$58
$49
Total SG&A excluding unusually high expenses(1)
Actual total SG&A
Note: Total SG& A as a percentage of total revenues. Total SG&A includes homebuilding selling, general and administrative and corporate general and administrative. * Hovnanian excludes $8.5 million of unusually high expenses due to a substantial increase in our construction defect reserve based on our annual actuarial study, as well as a reserve for a receivable from a prior year land sale.
Q4 13
$63
12
Reloading Our Land Position
Lots Purchased or Optioned Since January 31, 2009
Lots Communities
Roll Forward First Quarter
Total Additions Walk Aways Net Change Total Additions Walk Aways Net Change 1,800 -200 1,600 3,100 -400 2,700
Roll Forward Second Quarter
Purchased 16,100
507(1) Optioned 13,300
Roll Forward Third Quarter(2)
Total Additions Walk Aways Net Change 4,100 -200 3,900 4,500 -700 3,800
Roll Forward Fourth Quarter
Joint Venture 4,500 35
Total Additions Walk Aways Net Change
Total
33,900
542
As of October 31, 2013 approximately 22,500 lots remaining.
Notes: (1) Excludes 112 communities where we walked away from all of the lots in those communities. (2) Third quarter 2013 total additions included 4,000 new options and 100 lots purchased but not controlled prior to 05/01/13.
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Land Positions by Geographic Segment
October 31, 2013 # Lots Owned Segment Northeast Mid-Atlantic Midwest Southeast Southwest West Total Excluding Mothballed Lots 1,088 2,353 2,488 860 2,337 715 9,841 Mothballed Lots 1,003 280 108 495 0 4,599 6,485 Optioned 2,677 2,965 1,948 2,480 4,723 730 15,523 Total 4,768 5,598 4,544 3,835 7,060 6,044 31,849
86% of options are newly identified lots Excluding mothballed lots, 79% of owned and optioned lots are newly identified lots
Excluding unconsolidated joint ventures.
15
Mothballed Lots
As of October 31, 2013
# of Lots Northeast (NJ, PA) Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, VA, WV) Midwest (IL, MN, OH) Southeast (FL, GA, NC, SC) Southwest (AZ, TX) West (CA) Total 1,003 280 108 495 0 4,599 6,485
In 50 communities with a book value of $116 million net of impairment balance of $432 million Unmothballed approximately 3,600 lots in 63 communities since January 31, 2009
16
Adjusted Hovnanian Stockholders Equity
$ in millions
$494
($433)
10/31/2013
Adjusted 10/31/2013
(1)
(1) Total Hovnanian Stockholders Deficit of $(433) million with $927 million valuation allowance added back to Stockholders Equ ity .
17
Credit Quality of Homebuyers
Fiscal Year 2013:
Fiscal Year 2012:
Average LTV: 85% Average CLTV: 85% ARMs: 3.1% FICO Score: 746
Average LTV: 87% Average CLTV: 87% ARMs: 2.3% FICO Score: 739
Capture Rate: 71%
Capture Rate: 76%
*Loans originated by our wholly-owned mortgage banking subsidiary.
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Hovnanian Mortgage Breakdown*
Fiscal Year 2013
Prime (Full Doc: Conforming) 62.7% VA 11.2%
FHA 21.5%
Fiscal Year 2012
All Jumbo Loans 3.0% USDA 1.6%
Prime (Full Doc: Conforming) 53.7%
FHA 27.8%
VA 13.9%
All Jumbo Loans 1.6%
USDA 3.0%
*Loans originated by our wholly-owned mortgage banking subsidiary.
19
Debt Maturity Profile
October 31, 2013 ($ in millions)
Since October 2008, reduced debt by more than $975 million
$577 $374 $259 $220 $82 $121 $87 $195
Current 2013 Liquidity Position (1)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Senior Unsecured Notes 2% & 5% Senior Secured Notes Senior Unsecured Exchangeable & Amortizing Notes Senior Secured Notes
Note: Shown on a fiscal year basis, at face value. Excludes TEU. .(1) Current Liquidity Position is $324.3 million of homebuilding cash, including $5.2 million of restricted cash required to collateralize letters of credit, and $49.2 million of availability under revolving credit facility as of October 31, 2013.
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($ in Millions)
Liquidity Target We are comfortable at the lower end of the range
$374
$279
(1) (2)
(1) Liquidity Position 07/31/13 is $226.7 million of homebuilding cash, including $5.2 million of restricted cash required to collateralize letters of credit, and $52.2 million of availability under revolving credit facility as of July 31, 2013. (2) Current Liquidity Position 10/31/13 is $324.3 million of homebuilding cash, including $5.2 million of restricted cash required to collateralize letters of credit, and $49.2 million of availability under revolving credit facility as of October 31, 2013.
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Inventory Turnover
2.1 1.7 1.4 1.1
2002
2011
2012
Inventory turnover derived by dividing cost of sales, excluding capitalized interest, by the five quarter average homebuilding inventory, excluding capitalized interest and inventory not owned.
2013
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Appendix
23
Fourth Quarter Results
($ in millions)
2013 $490 1,315 202 6.5 $848 2,392 1,816 $592 22.6% 10.6% $36
2012 $513 1,443 189 7.6 $742 2,145 1,750 $487 18.3% 10.0% ($8)
% Change -4% -9% 7% -14% 14% 12% 4% 22% +430 bps +60 bps
1) Net Contracts ($ value)1 2) Net Contracts (units)1 3) Communities1 4) Contracts per Community1 5) Backlog ($ value)1 6) Backlog (units)1 7) Deliveries1 8) Total Revenues 9) Homebuilding Gross Margin 10) Total SG&A as a Percentage of Total Revenues Income (Loss) Before Income Taxes Excluding Land11) Related Charges, Expenses Associated with the Debt Exchange Offer and Gain on Extinguishment of Debt (2)
(1) Includes unconsolidated joint ventures. (2) Includes inventory impairment loss and lot option write-offs, as well as unconsolidated joint venture investment and land-related charges.
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Land Positions by Geographic Segment
October 31, 2013 Years Supply Owned Excluding Mothballed Lots 1.8 3.8 3.8 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 Investment in Land (raw land, finished lots and lots under development) ($ in millions) $184 $93 $47 $38 $113 $80 $555
Segment Northeast Mid-Atlantic Midwest Southeast Southwest West Total
TTM Deliveries 617 623 657 535 2,331 503 5,266
Mothballed Lots 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.0 9.1 1.2
Optioned 4.3 4.8 3.0 4.6 2.0 1.5 2.9
Total 7.7 9.0 6.9 7.2 3.0 12.0 6.0
Excluding unconsolidated joint ventures.
25
Unsold Homes per Community
633 started unsold homes at 10/31/13, excluding models 4.7 average started unsold homes per community since 1997 As of October 31, 2013, 3.3 started unsold homes per community 9.0
# Homes / Community
6.0
3.0
0.0
Excluding unconsolidated joint ventures.
Oct-97 Apr-98 Oct-98 Apr-99 Oct-99 Apr-00 Oct-00 Apr-01 Oct-01 Apr-02 Oct-02 Apr-03 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13
Started Unsold Homes Models
26
Owned Lots % Development Costs Spent
As of October 31, 2013
54% 38%
8%
>80% developed 30% - 80% developed <30% developed
Excluding unconsolidated joint ventures.
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$ in Millions
Oct-08
$727 $643 $500 $468 $394 $362 $385 $356 $336 $353 $345 $360 $576 $570 $503 $357 $374 $381
$1,134 $1,020 $776 $686 $559 $562 $586 $560 $521 $522 $561 $628
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12
$469 $464
$413 $370 $369 $418
Excluding Inventory Not Owned, on-your-lot construction, assets outside the US and option deposits and pre-development costs.
Land (raw land, finished lots and land under developm ent)
Jan-13 $495 Apr-13 $447 Jul-13 13-Oct
28
$504 $555
$436 $338
Inventory Breakdown
Sold and Unsold hom es (including land, land developm ent and WIP)
Payments for Loan Repurchases and Make Whole Requests
As of October 31, 2013
$ in millions
13 of 18 loans were small second lien repurchases.
$2.6 $1.6 $1.5 $1.0
$1.6
$0.7 FY 2012
10 loans
FY 2008
Settlements 28 loans
FY 2009
28 loans 41 loans
FY 2010
17 loans 98 loans
FY 2011
29 loans 39 loans
FY 2013
18 loans
58 loans
Repurchase Inquires 45 loans
66 loans
As of October 31, 2013, reserve for loan repurchases and make whole requests was $11.0 million.
Note: All of these losses had been adequately reserved for in prior periods.
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30