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Introduction To Probability: Lesson Notes and Examples: Key Words

This document provides an introduction to probability concepts including experiments, outcomes, events, and key probability rules and formulas. It defines an event as a set of possible outcomes from an experiment. It explains that the probability of two mutually exclusive events equals the sum of their individual probabilities, while the probability of two non-mutually exclusive events is their sum minus their intersection. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating probabilities of compound events using formulas and representations like probability trees.

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56 views4 pages

Introduction To Probability: Lesson Notes and Examples: Key Words

This document provides an introduction to probability concepts including experiments, outcomes, events, and key probability rules and formulas. It defines an event as a set of possible outcomes from an experiment. It explains that the probability of two mutually exclusive events equals the sum of their individual probabilities, while the probability of two non-mutually exclusive events is their sum minus their intersection. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating probabilities of compound events using formulas and representations like probability trees.

Uploaded by

mirelaasman
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Introduction to Probability: Lesson Notes and Examples

Key wordsExperiment Outcome Event

Example Experiment: Pick a card from a standard pack of 52 cards Outcomes: 2 of hearts, 9 of clubs, ace of spades, etc. Event: picking a card with an even number on. P(even number) = (2, 4, 6, 8, or 10 of each suit)

Definition: An event is a set of possible outcomes. Key results Let A and B be two events. ! 0 ! P(A) ! 1 ! P(A not happening) = 1 P(A) Note: P(A) is short for the probability of A. Note: A means not A

! If A and B are mutually exclusive (so that they cannot occur at the same time), then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) N.B. P(A B) means P(A or B) A B

More generally, if A and B are not mutually exclusive: P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)
A A AND B B

Example: A university has 4000 first year undergraduates 2800 live in halls 1000 live in privately-rented accommodation 500 study medicine 340 of the medical students live in halls. A student is picked at random. Let H be the event the student lives in halls; R in privately-rented accommodation; M that they study medicine. Then the above information can be represented by the probabilities:

P(H) = P(M) =

P(R) = P(M H) =

So,

P(H

R) =

(you can add the probabilities since H and R are mutually

exclusive you cant live in both types of accommodation at the same time). But P(H M) = P(H) + P(M) P(H " M) = be a medical student and live in halls). Independent events A and B are independent if the probability of one happening isnt affected by whether the other happens or not. If A and B are independent, then: P(A B) = P(A) # P(B). Example: A dice is thrown twice. Find the probability a) of getting a 4 on both occasions; b) that neither number is a 2; c) both numbers are the same. a) When you throw a dice twice, the outcomes of the throws are independent of each other. So P(4 AND 4) = b) P(not 2 AND not 2) = (H and M are not mutually exclusive you can

c) P(both numbers are the same) = P(1, 1) + P(2, 2) ++P(6, 6) =

Some key techniques: Sample space diagrams: Eg two dice are each numbered 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 6. They are both thrown and their scores are added together. There are 36 equally likely combinations of scores:1 2 3 3 4 4 7 Second dice 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 6 7 8 8 9 9 12 P(total is 5) = P(total is even) = P(total score is at least 6)

1 2 2 3 3 6

First dice

Tree diagrams Eg Lydia buys a ticket in her school fetes raffle and tombola. The probability that she wins a prize in the raffle is 1/80 and in the tombola is 1/10. Find the probability that she wins: a) 2 prizes; b) at least one prize. R = wins prize in raffle, T = wins prize in tombola.
T

R Not T T

Not R Not T

The events of winning a prize in the raffle and in the tombola are independent of each other. Therefore: a) P(2 prizes) = P(R AND T) =

b) P(at least one prize) = 1 P(no prizes) =

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