Climate Ready

BACLIAT: Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool

Contents

Introduction Section 1: Assessing the impacts of a changing climate Section 2: The business case for adapting to a changing climate Section 3: Climate change projections for the 21st Century Section 4: BACLIAT Workshop Section 5: Threats and opportunities for all sectors arising from a changing climate

1 2 4 6 10

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Examples of Sectoral Impacts 19 Building design and construction 22 Business, e.g. Motor manufacturing 25 Section 6: Further support 28

Introduction
The weather already significantly affects economic activity. As the climate changes, all sectors of UK business will be faced with preparing for a range of new threats and opportunities.
This report presents an overview of climate change impacts and shows how the BACLIAT tool can be used in a workshop setting to help businesses and organisations adapt to the changing climate. BACLIAT is aimed at business managers as well as those in business-facing organisations and is based on practical experience of working with businesses. The BACLIAT process can also be tailored to suit the needs of non-business organisations. Originally developed by UKCIP, BACLIAT has been updated and incorporated into the Environment Agencys Climate Ready Support Service.

BACLIAT: Business Areas Climate Assessment Tool

Section 1: Assessing the impacts of a changing climate

The Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool (BACLIAT) provides a simple process for organisations to assess the potential impacts of climate change on their business.

BACLIAT can be used at the level of a single organisation or an entire business sector. It recognises that a changing climate affects all business areas, and not just the more obvious ones of product design or service delivery. BACLIAT invites consideration of the opportunities as well as the threats from a changing climate, under the following headings:

logistics: vulnerability of supply chain, utilities and transport infrastructure finance: implications for investment, insurance and stakeholder reputation  markets: changing demand for goods and services  process: impacts on production processes and service delivery  people: implications for workforce, customers and changing lifestyles  premises: impacts on building design, construction, maintenance and facilities management  management implications: identification of key areas of action and activities required

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Section 1: continued

The basis of all climate change impacts assessment is to consider the expected changes to the climate and ask the question: What will this do to my sector or business?. Using your own knowledge or that of other specialists, you can then suggest what will be the likely threats and opportunities of different climatic conditions. In speculating about future impacts it is useful to start by considering how weather currently affects your operations, and those of your competitors and sector. These initial assessments of impacts can form part of the first tier of the risk-based approach to decision making. It is important to keep a record of the assessment process so that it can be revisited and reviewed as part of a robust risk assessment process. Example assessments for generic impacts on sectors can be found in Section 5. Before you can begin your BACLIAT assessment you will need to define the context for your enquiry.

The context is defined under these seven headings. time: over what time period are you interested in the climate impacts?  location: where are you interested in finding out about climate change impacts?  greenhouse gas emissions: how should you take account of different projections for greenhouse gas emissions?  sector: which sector(s) are you considering? socio-economic outlook: what will the UK and your sector look like in the time period you are considering?  business areas: which business areas within your organisation are at greatest risk? climate variables: which are the important climate variables when considering climate impacts? Business organisations are encouraged to make use of a risk-based approach to decision making, particularly where long-term planning or investment is involved.

BACLIAT: Business Areas Climate Assessment Tool

Section 2: The business case for adapting to a changing climate

The business case for adapting to a changing climate can be made in terms of maximising profits, managing risks and making the most of strategic opportunities.

An understanding of the likely business risks and opportunities, and why a planned approach should be taken is also required (see Figure 1). Some companies will also be driven to adapt by regulatory and other requirements.

Other requirements that could drive business adaptation include:  planning policy  thresholds within contracts or service level agreements (for example, a facilities management company being required to guarantee they will not close the building for more than 3 days in a year)  requirements for contractors to local authorities that have adaptation as a local priority Potential future requirements include:   updating of industry codes and standards to take account of the changing climate  legal upper temperature limit for workplaces  requirements of insurers or insurance products that take account of the climate risk

Managing risks and exploiting opportunities

The climate impacts summarised in Section 5 will directly affect sales, productivity, input costs and overheads, and could translate to a range of new or increasing business risks (see Figure 1). The impacts of climate change could also present some strategic opportunities for business. For example, there may be business development opportunities arising from new or growing markets, new production possibilities, or opportunities arising from being better placed than competitors to deal with climate risks (first mover advantage).

Regulatory and other requirements

The Climate Change Act 2008 created a framework for building the UKs capacity to adapt. Under the Act, the UK government has the power to require public authorities and some businesses such as utilities and transport operators to report how they are assessing and managing the risks of climate change. Its influence could extend much further throughout the public and private sectors through supply chains, and growing awareness of climate vulnerabilities highlighted by the National Risk Assessment (NAP), also part of the Climate Change Act.

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Section 2: continued

Why take a planned approach?

Climate change is an on-going, long-term phenomenon with a degree of uncertainty attached to it and as such it is often difficult to see how its effects can be managed within the short planning horizons of a commercial organisation. Therefore, it is tempting to wait for changes to take effect and respond to them as they happen. Much adaptation will be passive or occur in a reactive way. However, this is inherently a more risky approach and a planned approach is more likely to lead to efficient adaptation. Four arguments for taking a planned approach to adaptation are outlined below. 1.   Difficulty in recognising the climate signal. Weather and climate are different. Weather is what happens outside your window each day. Climate is a long term trend (usually over 30 years). Consequently extreme weather events can make the longer term climate trends harder to see, allowing uncertainty to creep into the decision-making process. 2.   Adaptive capacity needs to be built over time. For example, information may be required in order to: determine the best adaptation option; understand synergies and conflicts in the broader context; re-write relevant policies, plans and procedures; and assign roles and responsibilities. All of this requires a certain amount of forward planning and time.

3.   Retrofitting is often more expensive. Maintenance programmes, new buildings or the replacement of old equipment represent an opportunity to take account of the future climate even if no impacts are currently being felt. Although there may be costs associated with this, in many cases it is likely to be cheaper in the long run. 4.   Planning ahead is still possible in the face of uncertainty. It is true that there is considerable uncertainty surrounding future climate impacts. A risk-based approach allows you to make decisions in the face of uncertainty and is more likely to lead to efficient adaptation.

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2

The scientific case for climate change

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A range of risks & opportunities Climate change Reputational risk

Pages 10

Potential impacts on: Markets Logistics Process Finance

Environmental risk Operational risk Financial risk Health & safety risk

People Premises Strategic risk Production opportunity Market opportunity

The case for a planned approach

Page 4

Figure 1: Building the business case for adaptation. Image adapted from UKCIP Changing climate for business, 2010.

BACLIAT: Business Areas Climate Assessment Tool

Section 3: Climate change projections for the 21st Century

Unavoidable climate change in the UK.

In the UK climate change is expected to mean the following: Changes to the long-term/seasonal averages:  generally warmer, drier summers  milder, wetter winters rising sea levels Changes in extremes:  more very hot days  more intense downpours of rain  fewer days with frost

UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk give projections for a range of climate variables at a resolution of 25 km across the UK. Projections are made for three emissions scenarios (High, Medium and Low), which make different assumptions about future technologies and economic growth, and therefore the levels of greenhouse gas emissions we can expect.

Dealing with uncertainty

There is a high level of certainty that climate change is happening and is being largely driven by greenhouse gas emissions. However, there are uncertainties relating to the future rates and geographical distribution of these changes. In order to help deal with this, the UKCP09 projections are probabilistic in nature, allowing users to identify the change associated with different levels of confidence. Figures 2 and 3 show a small selection of the information available from UKCP09 at the 10, 50 and 90% probability levels. The current evidence suggests that the change is very unlikely to be less than that indicated by the 10% probability level, or more than indicated by the 90% probability level.

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10% probability level Very unlikely to be less than

50% probability level Central estimate

90% probability level Very unlikely to be greater than

Winter
70

50

30

10 0

10

30

50

70

Summer

Figure 2: Change in winter and summer precipitation for the 2050s (20402069) under the High emissions scenario. Image UK Climate Projections 2009

10% probability level Very unlikely to be less than

50% probability level Central estimate

90% probability level Very unlikely to be greater than

Summer
0

10

Change in summer mean temperature (C) for the 2050s, High emissions scenario

Figure 3: Change in summer mean temperature for the 2050s (20402069) under the High emissions scenario. Image UK Climate Projections 2009

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Table 1: Estimated annual number of warm days (temperature greater than 25C) (High emissions scenario, central estimate)

Location London Derry Plymouth

Source: UK Climate Projections, 2009

Baseline (19611990) 15 1 3

2040s 50 3 21

Unavoidable climate change

Due to the inertia in the climate system, we are already committed to a certain amount of climate change as a result of the greenhouse gases emitted in the past. The time lag between emission and the resulting temperature change is around 3040 years. Figure 4 shows the effect on projected global temperature of past greenhouse gas emissions, which will influence our climate until around the mid-century. These are changes that we are already committed to. Although it is important to reduce emissions now to avoid the amount of change that is associated with the top of the High emissions line in Figure 4, we also need to adapt to the changes that are unavoidable.

Global climate change

Increasingly, businesses operate in global markets and rely on global supply networks. Thus the way the climate is expected to change outside the UK will have implications for businesses based here as they make plans to adapt. For example, in Asia, as well as increasing temperatures, we currently expect increasing precipitation across most of the continent, an increasing intensity of tropical cyclones, snow melt leading to floods and water shortages in areas that already suffer from water stress. Figure 5 shows the expected increase in hot days and heavy rainfall days in Asia.

What about extremes?

The maps in Figures 2 and 3 show seasonal averages. However, it is often the extremes of climate that are the main concern for business. The UKCP09 probabilistic projections and the Weather Generator (WG) allow users to explore changes in the frequency of some extreme events. Table 1 shows the sort of information that can be obtained using the Weather Generator. In this case, the expected increase in the annual number of warm days is shown for the 2040s under the High emissions scenario.

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5

High emissions

Temperature change (C)

Low emissions
1

0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Year
Figure 4: Temperature change associated with High and Low emissions scenarios over the 21st century. Image UK Climate Projections 2009

160

Number of hot days (>30 C)

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Number of heavy rainfall days (100mm/day)

12 10 8 6 4 2 0

1990 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

2080

2100

Figure 5: Projected number of hot days (>30C) and heavy rainfall days (>100 mm/day) in Asia Source: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/figure-10-2.html

BACLIAT: Business Areas Climate Assessment Tool

Section 4: BACLIAT Workshop

Business areas and future climate The objective of this workshop is to draw upon employee knowledge to brainstorm potential future impacts of climate change on a business, organisation or sector.

The objective of this workshop is to draw upon employee knowledge to brainstorm potential future impacts of climate change on a business, organisation or sector. You can run BACLIAT workshops: at an individual company  within departments/divisions of larger organisations for a sector group  to raise awareness of a group of business managers from several companies You can expect the following outcomes:  increased awareness of the range of threats and opportunities that climate change could bring, many of which will not have been experienced in the past  a good idea of how climate risks are spread across different business areas You will be in a better position to: carry out a climate change risk assessment

The workshop process has four steps: 1 Underpinning knowledge Before the workshop, make sure you understand how the climate is likely to change and the difference between climate and weather 2 Preparing for the workshop Make sure you have everything you need to deliver a successful workshop 3 Running the workshop Step by step guide to how to deliver the workshop 4 After the workshop Thoughts and ideas about how to use the meeting outputs to contribute towards developing strategy and policy

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Step 1: Underpinning knowledge

In the UK we can generally expect the following from climate change:  warmer, drier summers  milder and wetter winters  rising sea levels

BACLIAT Business Areas BACLIAT uses a set of six generic business areas, developed in partnership with a range of UK trade associations and professional bodies. These six areas are designed to be applicable to any type of business or sector. Under each there will be several potential threats and benefits for your business arising from climate change. The six areas are:

 more very hot days and heatwaves Markets  more intense downpours of rain Process  a possible increase in storms in the winter  Logistics Before you start assessing the potential impacts of future climate change, it is important to be clear on the difference between weather and climate. Climate describes the average and variability of weather over an extended period (usually 30 years). The weather describes what is happening at any point in time including events such as heatwaves, rain, snow, sleet and high winds. In most cases it is extreme weather events that affect businesses rather than climate trends.  People  Premises Finance The six headings and some generic impacts are given in Table 2. Running the workshop will uncover impacts specific to your business.

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Table 2: Generic impacts in BACLIAT business areas

Business area Markets

Generic impacts  Increasing or decreasing demand for some products and services  New requirements of existing products and services  Emerging markets for new products and services  Changing customer behaviour  Marketing opportunities  Unable to satisfy increased demand or segments of the market  Competitors position enhanced or reduced by climate change  Advantages for early movers in response to changed markets and lifestyles  Impacts on climate-sensitive processes or equipment  Impacts on climate-sensitive activities  Exceedence of limits set out in policies, procedures or contracts  Disruption of supply chain due to transport disruption  Disruption of supply chain due to impact on suppliers  Disruption of supply chain due to raw material price or availability  Disruption to utilities supply  Changing packaging or distribution process requirements  Impacts on thermal comfort of employees  Impacts on thermal comfort of customers, suppliers or others  Impacts of inclement weather on outdoor staff Recruitment-related issues  Business implications of climate-driven social trends  Damage or degradation of building fabric  Impacts on the internal environment  Impacts on the outdoor environment  Insurance related issues  Investment related issues  Potential new liabilities

Process

Logistics

People

Premises

Finance

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Step 2: Preparing for the workshop

Review Check the six generic business areas (markets, process, logistics, people, premises and finance) are appropriate for your company/sector. You may wish to amend these areas; for example, you could use the headings offered by the CBI report,* or develop a set of headings that match your organisational structure. The latter approach may be useful when moving towards assigning responsibility for implementing adaptation measures.
* Future Proof: Preparing your Business for a Changing Climate, CBI, 2009 www.ukcip.org.uk/wordpress/wp-content/PDFs/CBI_Futureproof _Preparing-business-for-CC.pdf (398KB)

The Workshop  Explain the purpose of the workshop. If you are planning to use it as a starting point for a climate risk assessment, explain where it fits into the bigger picture.  Provide participants with the headline climate change messages.  Explain that you are going to look at how to live with the changing climate (adaptation) and how it is different from reducing greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation).  Ask participants to think about the first business area, e.g. Markets. What are the opportunities and challenges the organisation will face in the future as a result of the changing climate?  Encourage participants to think of things that have happened in the past and could become more frequent with climate change as well as more imaginative suggestions of impacts that have not yet happened.  On post-it notes, ask participants to write their thoughts and stick them on to the sheet in the appropriate column.  As the number of post-its builds, think about grouping similar thoughts together.  Repeat the process for each of the theme headings. Once the group has grasped the idea, you could try completing 2 sheets at a time. Dont worry about ideas being captured under the wrong headings. Similarly it does not matter about duplication, as this can be tidied up before the information is used as part of a climate risk assessment or other study.  Once all the sheets are completed, give participants a limited number of sticky dots. Ask them to vote with the dots for the ideas that are the most urgent to tackle for the business / organisation, or some other criteria that suits your requirements.  Use the results of this dotmocracy to form the basis of a management response, which could include the adoption of climate risk in policies and process such as marketing, facilities management, process efficiency, business resilience planning, insurance, investment, risk registers etc.

Who to invite  The wider the range of participants involved (for example representatives from different business area, functions, locations, responsibilities etc.) the richer the output will be.  Give yourself about an hour though larger companies or those with a wide variety of location or activities may need longer.

Step 3: Running the workshop

You will need the following to run the workshop Flipchart paper  Post-it notes  Pens  Blu Tack  Sticky dots Additionally you may wish to prepare a presentation or handout outlining the extreme weather events you have experienced and the expected longer term changes to the climate.

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Step 4: After the workshop

To use the information for awareness raising or as the start of a climate risk assessment it will need to be tidied up:  Remove duplicates.  You can discard the BACLIAT headings in favour of a structure that works for you, for example, to fit with your organisational structure this allows responsibility for each area of risks to be assigned and for the appropriate people to be involved in further discussions.  Re-express each impact so that it is clear what the climate/weather driver is, where the impact will be felt and what the business consequences are.

 You may also find value in developing a list of climate risks that include past events and events that will continue to happen as climate changes (at a decreased on increased frequency) as well as potential impacts that have not yet been experienced. Now that you have some idea of how climate change could affect you, you may wish implement a risk assessment to identify a set of priority climate risks or you may wish to use the workshop outputs as part of a more rigorous approach to developing an adaptation plan or strategy, for example by using the Adaptation Wizard.

Figure 6: Outputs from the BACLIAT process

Finance Premises People Logistics Process Markets Opportunities

Management Actions

Threats

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BACLIAT: Business Areas Climate Assessment Tool

Section 5: Threats and opportunities for all sectors arising from a changing climate
The table below shows just a few examples of typical impacts that the BACLIAT workshop can reveal. They can be applied to virtually all business sectors, but should not be treated as definitive nor comprehensive assessments of the climate risks for business.
Logistics: vulnerability of supply chain, utilities and transport infrastructure
Threats  Vulnerability of supplies of goods and services (e.g. raw materials, components)  Disruption to utilities, especially electricity supply, water supply and sewerage  Vulnerability of transport and delivery systems for goods and services in and out Examples of potential impacts Agriculture: increased demand for water in summer but supply vulnerable in hotter, drier summers Retail: transport systems vulnerable (e.g. floods, landslips) for delivery of products to retail outlets Manufacturing: disruption to production through failure of electricity supply from storm damaged power lines. Manufacturing: vulnerability of just in time delivery systems to disruption in transport (see retail above) Opportunities  Maintaining supply and transport of goods and services through awareness and adaptation planning  Create secure systems of water storage and electricity generation on site

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Finance: implications for investments, insurance and stakeholder reputation

Threats  Failure to climate-proof creates difficulties in securing investment and/or insurance cover at reasonable cost  Potential liabilities are associated with previous actions which future changes in climate may reveal as vulnerable  Potential liabilities if climate change is not factored into long-term decisions about the future Examples of potential impacts Insurance policies: check stance of Association of British Insurers on undefended flood risks and impacts on premiums Investment issues: possibility of new tests for climate-proofing of development projects and Operating and Financial Review (OFR) reporting Liabilities: new liabilities on historic projects may occur but remedial action is unlikely to be cost-effective Future developments: improved specification that takes account of future climate is likely to be cost-effective in most (but not all) cases Opportunities  Evidence of climate-proofing enhances reputation with all stakeholders, provides security for investment and opportunity for reduced insurance premiums  Potential risks reduced and liabilities diminished through pro-active risk assessment and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies

Markets: changing demand for goods and services

Threats  Decreased or disappearing demand for present range of goods and/or services  Competitors position enhanced by changing climate Examples of potential impacts Tourism: Mediterranean summer becomes too hot so more holidays taken in UK Agriculture: more demand for warm weather food and drink products Urban lifestyles: warmer summers encourage al-fresco eating, pavement cafes, siestas Leisure: less snow for winter sports in Scotland and Alps Opportunities  New products or modifications to existing products to respond to changing market  Become an early mover in response to changed markets and lifestyles  Undertake market research and product development with climate change in mind

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Process: impacts on production processes and service delivery

Threats  Increased difficulties or entirely new problems affecting production process and service delivery arising from increased temperature (especially in the south), extreme events of storms and torrential rain Examples of potential impacts Building construction: fewer delays on site through frosts but vulnerability of structure during construction from more torrential rain and storm damage Food and drink production: additional temperature control required Leisure: pitches, parks, golf links vulnerable to drought Engineering: greater temperature control required for sensitive production processes Opportunities  Some aspects of production process or service delivery made easier as a result of changing climate (e.g. fewer frosts to damage agricultural crops)

People: implications for workforce, customers and changing lifestyles

Threats  Threat to working conditions and travel arrangements for staff  Failure to attract or retain staff through reputation as poor employer (e.g. business not climate proofed, no training on impacts and adaptation) Examples of potential impacts Agriculture, construction, forestry: external workforce exposed to increased sunlight and temperatures in summer Offices, retail etc.: internal environment uncomfortable as a result of increased summer temperatures Housing: more northerly locations could become more attractive as residential locations as the south gets hotter Leisure: generally more outdoor activity Opportunities  Opportunity to improve working conditions for staff  Opportunity to improve travel arrangements for staff (e.g. walk/cycle) Reputational opportunities as good employer increases recruitment and retention of high quality staff  Avoid high cost technical fixes by low cost management fixes (e.g. siestas)

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Premises: impacts on building design, construction, maintenance and facilities management

Threats  Vulnerability due to proximity to potential riverine, coastal and urban flooding  Building fabric vulnerable to wind, rain and storm  Building structure vulnerable to storm and subsidence  Internal environment: challenge of coping with increased summer temperatures (without adding to greenhouse gases) Examples of potential impacts All building projects: need to insist on use of future rather than historic climate data for both new-build and refurbishment Major infrastructure investment: systematic risk assessment should include climate change alongside other risks Retail sites: Premises inaccessible due to car park flooding Existing buildings: challenge of refurbishing to climate-proofed standards Opportunities  Include expected climate through lifetime of building in specification for sustainable design and construction of new-build  Maintain, manage and refurbish premises to an enhanced specification to anticipate climate change  Optimise location of premises with regard to flooding, logistics and employee preference in new development

Management implications: identification of key areas of action and activities required

Threats  Business failure or reduced profits if climate change is not included in policy, management structure and procedures nor in job descriptions of appropriate staff and not supported by senior management Examples of potential impacts Climate risks treated as risk management exercise:  risk analysis undertaken (and ignored if no real risk!) and integrated with other decision-making procedures  inclusion of climate risks in appropriate management policies  identification of appropriate roles and responsibilities of key members of staff  help to build capacity in other organisations where some of the risk is located (e.g. suppliers) Opportunities  Pro-actively manage climate impacts and adaptation issues  Adopt risk management approach to management of climate change issues  Mainstream climate impacts and adaptation into conventional business strategy and management

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Examples of Sectoral Impacts

Agriculture
The table below shows the outcomes of the BACLIAT checklist applied to businesses in the agriculture sector. These are edited highlights from a CCFB workshop using the BACLIAT checklist they are not to be treated as definitive nor comprehensive assessments of the climate risks for this sector.

Logistics: vulnerability of supply chain, utilities and transport infrastructure

Threats  More refrigerated distribution and storage required and problems with livestock transportation in summer heat conditions  Floods, landslips and so on disrupting transport infrastructure in the short- and long- term, creating problems with raw materials in and goods out  Limited availability of water (Section 57 of Water Resources Act restricts agricultural use of water) and potential interruption of supply (and/or cost increase) to irrigation systems in glasshouses and poly-tunnels Opportunities  Supplying local markets either in UK generally or very locally, provides for local sourcing and regional distinctiveness offering a new marketing approach with reduced food miles  On-site processing to supply local markets and add value  Build relationships with water companies for farmers to provide water storage facility on their land and provide on-site water storage generally

Finance: implications for investment, insurance and stakeholder reputation

Threats  Investment in equipment ties farmer into the relevant crop until capital is paid off, so difficult to change crops  Agriculture perceived as a poor industry in which to invest as it is vulnerable to climate change  Investment may not be available to respond to impacts of changing climate (e.g. hardstanding around buildings to deal with winter mud) Opportunities  Consider risks and opportunities of climate change within (say) a 5 year business plan  Evidence of climate-proofing business improves reputation with investors, insurers and other stakeholders and may liberate investment funding

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Markets: changing demand for goods and services

Threats  Loss of traditional markets, loss of local competitive advantage, and new competition in existing markets (e.g. as a result of global climate change)  Quality issues relating to climate (e.g. overheating of grain) and supermarkets demanding washed produce which is very water intensive  Maintaining a supply to markets Opportunities  UK can compete with other countries by growing new products that need a warmer climate  Changing customer demand in response to climate (more salads and fresh fruits)  Diversification into new areas such as tourism, biomass, renewables and manufacturing (hemp)

Process: impacts on production processes and service delivery

Threats  Existing crops may no longer be viable in new climate conditions  Problems of access to land especially in flood or torrential rain conditions  Less frequent frosts will affect quality of certain crops, reduce soil conditioning and reduce kill-off of pests and diseases  Water quality reduced in summer Opportunities  New species and varieties of plants can be grown (e.g. English vineyards for English wines) and new types of livestock (e.g. buffalo for English mozzarella)  Crops for renewable energy and transport fuel  Better growing conditions (higher temperatures and increased carbon dioxide) for existing crops will increase productivity

People: implications for workforce, customers and changing lifestyles

Threats  Difficult to respond to increased demand for staff leading to staff shortages or unskilled staff  Staff need training in new skills associated with new crops, new technologies and new approaches to land management  Exposure of workforce to increased sun and skin cancer risk Opportunities  Possible increased local employment opportunities arising from new crops, livestock etc.  Provide staff training to respond to diversification of employment patterns, new crops, technologies, land management etc.

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Premises: impacts on building design, construction, maintenance and facilities management

Threats  Farm buildings vulnerable to extremes of wind, summer heat, driving rain a particular concern for animal welfare (e.g. summer shade for pigs)  Curtilages to buildings vulnerable to extreme downpours of rain, flash flooding and increased run-off and erosion  Existing buildings not adapted to new climate, especially in hot summer conditions Opportunities  Generally milder winters requiring less winter housing for livestock  Farmers diversifying can convert existing buildings to other uses (e.g. residential accommodation and tourist information/education centres) designed to take account of future climates  Threat to existing buildings provides an opportunity to create climate-proofed new buildings

Management implications: identification of key areas of action and activities required

Threats  Diversification generally including cultivation of new crops could mean that farmers are moving into areas in which they have no experience and are therefore more vulnerable  Risk of reactive adaptation rather than adaptation responses based on long-term planning  More outsourcing and use of contractors could mean that farmers are less flexible and more reliant on contractors Opportunities  Consider risks and opportunities of climate change within (say) a 5 year business plan  Staff development training and education could include overseas trips to other farms that are g  rowing crops which UK will be able to grow in new climatic conditions

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Building design and construction

The table below shows the outcomes of the BACLIAT checklist applied to businesses in the building design and construction sector. These are edited highlights from a CCFB workshop using the BACLIAT checklist they are not to be treated as definitive nor comprehensive assessments of the climate risks for this sector.

Logistics: vulnerability of supply chain, utilities and transport infrastructure

Threats  Flooding, especially flash flooding, will disrupt transport for site deliveries  Site work more difficult therefore more pre-fabrication therefore longer delivery lines for materials/components that will be vulnerable to extreme events, and generate more carbon dioxide emissions  Utilities generally (energy distribution, drainage infrastructure) vulnerable to extreme weather events Opportunities  Specify building solutions where production is close to point of use, including pre-fabricated buildings and components  Use local sourcing to reduce travel miles and vulnerability to transport disruption  Opportunities for timber production (more carbon dioxide growth) for use where lightweight construction is appropriate

Finance: implications for investment, insurance and stakeholder reputation

Threats  Construction industry needs clarification of design standards in the face of changing climate and performance indicators of well-adapted buildings  Implications for insurance (of buildings, professional indemnity, employers liability) for existing buildings, new buildings and during the construction process Opportunities  Clients attracted to designers and contractors with evidence of climate future-proofing in building projects  Good risk management will appeal to financiers and insurers and provides opportunity to market risk management expertise  Good reputation attracts good staff, customers and investors

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Markets: changing demand for goods and services

Threats  Building fabric generally vulnerable to increased temperatures, driving rain and other extreme events  Could NHBCs 10 year guarantee period need extending?  Existing buildings not well-adapted to new climate, especially in hot summer conditions, leading to reduced value of existing buildings if they are not future climate-proofed Opportunities  Opportunities for concrete in situations where high thermal mass is appropriate, especially by recycling waste materials from other industries, thereby reducing use of virgin materials  Specify flood-resistant solutions in vulnerable locations

Process: impacts on production processes and service delivery

Threats  Excessive heat in summer will affect on-site construction processes  Need to damp down on-site dust in dry summer conditions  Extreme rainfall events make muddy site conditions and restrict on-site days  Partly completed structures more vulnerable to wind and storm damage Opportunities  Fewer frosts reducing interruptions to on-site processes  Developing expertise and technology in water management and drainage  Developing expertise in the design of well-adapted buildings  Developing expertise in managing construction processes in response to climate change

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People: implications for workforce, customers and changing lifestyles

Threats  Extreme discomfort in summertime in all building types, especially in the south  On-site workforce exposed to increased ultraviolet (UV) radiation and temperatures  Dissatisfied occupants of buildings that are not fit-for-purpose (e.g. building occupiers experiencing flooding, inadequate drainage, lack of solar control and cooling, problems with air tightness, driving rain and winds) Opportunities  Greater comfort and lower fuel bills in winter  Training staff on climate change issues including design, on-site activities and so on (applies at many levels, degree, HND, individual trades)  Some locations that are currently not popular because of poor weather will become more attractive as the climate changes

Premises: impacts on building design, construction, maintenance and facilities management

Threats  Risk of flooding to properties and building sites  Provision of cooling through installation of air-conditioning will increase capital cost, running costs and emissions of greenhouse gases  Poor working conditions on site including in site huts particularly in higher summer temperatures Opportunities  Clients will require increased maintenance of existing buildings  Opportunities for high thermal mass building solutions which can reduce air-conditioning requirements  Opportunity to develop expertise and reputation in climate-related building issues

Management implications: identification of key areas of action and activities required

Threats  Danger of ignoring climate change issues altogether  Danger of over-reacting to climate change issues  Unforeseen or unplanned-for regulations  Ultimately business failure  Influence regulations, especially Building Regulations, through trade and professional bodies and other stakeholders Opportunities  Putting climate change into management and planning systems thus climate future-proofing business and buildings  Make full use of climate scenarios and other weather prediction services

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Business, e.g. Motor manufacturing

The table below shows the outcomes of the BACLIAT checklist applied to businesses in the motor manufacturing sector. These are edited highlights from a CCFB workshop using the BACLIAT checklist they are not to be treated as definitive nor comprehensive assessments of the climate risks for this sector.

Logistics: vulnerability of supply chain, utilities and transport infrastructure

Threats  Significant supply chain interruptions to intensive production schedules and resulting cost implications  Vulnerable transport systems, on which global supply chain depends, carrying high value products around the world (e.g. one ship carries 30 million worth of product) Opportunities  Opportunities for concrete in situations where high thermal mass is appropriate, especially by recycling waste materials from other industries, thereby reducing use of virgin materials  Specify flood-resistant solutions in vulnerable locations

Finance: implications for investment, insurance and stakeholder reputation

Threats  Failure to climate-proof company, product range, premises and so on will increase potential for legal action, increase insurance premiums and reduce confidence among investors Opportunities  Demonstrating that climate risks are integrated into business planning improves reputation with investors, insurers and other stakeholders

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Section 5: continued

Markets: changing demand for goods and services

Threats  Increasing globalisation of markets may require products to operate in even wider range of climates, but many cars already designed to operate in harsher climates  Vehicles to tolerate new extremes of climate, including greater intensity of rainfall (affecting seals, tolerances, wipers, tyres) and increased need for cooling Opportunities  Globalisation of markets may permit a one size fits all specification for a wide range of climates  Design and produce low-energy technologies for cooling interior of vehicles  Include new technology in vehicles to warn drivers of weather-related hazards  Increased demand for (summer) recreational vehicles

Process: impacts on production processes and service delivery

Threats  Process environment will become hotter with increased need for cooling of some sort  Increased drying time for painted products as a result of increased humidity

People: implications for workforce, customers and changing lifestyles

Opportunities Threats  Possible introduction of regulation on maximum working temperature in process environment  Health hazards arising from excessive heat and respiratory problems and possible increased absenteeism  Changing holiday patterns of workforce with more even distribution throughout the year will aid continuous production  Staff training including learning from operation of plant in other climates similar to those expected for the UK

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Premises: impacts on building design, construction, maintenance and facilities management

Threats  Buildings generally vulnerable to extremes of wind, summer heat, driving rain and so on particularly addressing comfort conditions for workforce and performance conditions for production processes  Existing buildings difficult to adapt to new climatic conditions Opportunities  Lower heating costs in winter  Design new buildings in anticipation of changed climate

Management implications: identification of key areas of action and activities required

Threats  Perceived lack of suitable data on future climate as a basis for quantified decision making  Review vulnerability of supply chain and logistics, particularly extreme events, as these seem to be priority areas  Some product components and testing regimes may need adaptation to cope with climate change Opportunities  Processes may be influenced by climate change but global experience will help the industry to adapt  Demonstrating that climate risks are integrated into business planning improves reputation with investors, insurers and other stakeholders

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Section 6: Further support

The Climate Ready Support Service helps business and organisations to adapt to the changing climate.

UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) provide probabilistic information on expected changes in the UKs climate at a regional level throughout the 21st century. http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk The UKCP09 package also includes a Weather Generator, which enables users to estimate the increasing (or decreasing) frequency of specific weather types such as heatwaves or heavy downpours of rain. The Weather Generator is available through an online facility enabling users to access the information at different levels of detail and to customise it for their purposes.

GOV.UK All government services and information will be transferred to a single website by March 2014. Search or navigate through topics, departments, policies, news and publications. Please note that this is a work in progress, and will change over time. www.gov.uk Business in the Community (BitC) Business in the Community is a membership organisation that aims to mobilise business for good. www.bitc.org.uk/environment/issues.html Confederation of British Industry (CBI) The CBI is the premier lobbying organisation for UK business on national and international issues. It works with the UK government, international legislators and policymakers to help UK businesses compete effectively. It has a programme of work on climate change led by its group of energy and climate change experts. www.cbi.org. uk/business-issues/energy-and-climate-change Federation of Small Business (FSB) FSB is a campaigning pressure group promoting and protecting the interests of the self-employed and owners of small companies. In addition to its lobbying role, it offers a wide range of services to business. www.fsb.org.uk

Other sources of information

Environment Agency The Environment Agency provides environmental protection and improvement in England and Wales. It works with businesses and other organisations to prevent damage to the environment by providing education and guidance. www.environment-agency.gov.uk Working in partnership, Climate Ready had developed practical guidance and tools to help organisations identify and evaluate climate change adaptation strategies, including how to assess the costs and benefits of different options. www.environment-agency.gov.uk/climateready

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Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Climate change partnerships in the UK (Defra) Defra takes the lead on adaptation to climate The English regions and the devolved administrations change in the UK. Its website provides a useful all now have climate change impacts partnerships overview of climate change adaptation and outlines the that bring together local stakeholders who share an governments approach for developing policy in this interest in climate change issues. The partnerships area. www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/adapting. share information and provide a focal point for action Content from Defra will be moving to GOV.UK in 2013, on climate change in their communities. Some focus only please see www.gov.uk/government/organisations on climate change impacts and adaptation, while others /department-for-environment-food-rural-affairs also incorporate work on climate change mitigation. Links to these partnerships can be found on the Climate Adaptation is a devolved issue and the devolved UK website. www.climateuk.net administrations are developing their own programmes. Climate UK is the national network of climate change http://wales.gov.uk/topics/environmentcountryside partnerships which seeks to maximise the benefit of the /climatechange/?lang=en work of each partnership. www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Environment Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) /climatechange The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for the assessment www.doeni.gov.uk/index/protect_the_environment of climate change. It was established by the United /climate_change.htm Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) the world with a clear scientific view on the current DECC was created in 2008 to bring together the state of knowledge in climate change and its potential governments climate change and energy policy areas. environmental and socio-economic impacts. It leads on work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and www.ipcc.ch on international adaptation initiatives. www.decc.gov.uk and www.gov.uk/government/topics/climate-change

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