Will 21C capitalism be as C unequal as 19 capitalism?
Thomas Piketty Paris School of Economics Lecture at Van Leer Jerusalem Institute January 14th 2010
Q.: What do we know about the long run tendancies of income & wealth distribution in capitalist economies? A.: Very little! Heated discussions & theoretical speculations for centuries... But relatively little scientific knowledge & data collection so far in this lecture, I will try however to provide the best educated guess about the future, for two reasons: (a) we need answers; (b) we have more research than ever before
We need answers
Long run distributional trends = key question asked by 19C economists Many came with apocalyptic answers Ricardo-Marx: a small group in society (land owners or capitalists) will capture an ever growing share of income & wealth; no balanced development path can occur During 20C, a more optimistic consensus emerged: growth is a rising tide that lifts all boats (Kuznets 1953; cold war context)
We need answers (contd)
But inequality since 1970s destroyed this fragile consensus (US 1977-2007: >50% of total growth was absorbed by top 1%) 19C economists raised the right questions; we need to adress these questions again; we have no strong reason to believe in balanced development path 2007-2009 crisis also raised doubts about balanced devt path will stock options & bonuses, or oil-rich countries & China, or tax havens, absorb an ever growing share of world ressources in 21C capitalism?
We have more research
Top income project: Piketty JPE03, PikettySaez QJE03, Atkinson-Piketty Oxford University Press 2007 & 2010 series for 20+ countries over 20C Wealth project: Piketty-Postel-Vinay-Rosenthal Wealth concentration in France 1807-1994 AER06 On the long-run evolution of inheritance, France 1820-2050, WP09 On-going work UK & US with Atkinson-Saez
Q.: What do we know about the long run tendancies of income & wealth distribution in capitalist economies? Can we return to 19C inequality? A.: Yes, and it can get even worst (1): 20C decline in inequality of inherited weatlh = mostly accidental (1914-45 shocks); nothing structural (2): Since 1970s, inequality in labor income has reached unheard of levels; not much to do with merit; grabbing hand; not virtuous invisible hand
30%
Fall of Rentiers & Rise of Working Rich
United States United Kingdom France
Top Percentile Income Share
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
50%
Are the U.S. the Future?
United States
Top Decile Income Share
45%
France
40%
35%
30%
25%
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
There are two ways to get rich
Y = YK + YL & Y K = r W With Y = total income YK = capital income & YL = labor income, W = total wealth (=K if closed econ, no govt) r = average rate of return Typically: W/Y=600%, r=5%, so that capital share = YK/Y = 30% Inequality comes from inequality of labor income YL & inequality of inherited wealth W (but wealth also comes from savings)
Orders of magnitude for Y & W
France 2010: National income Y = 1 700 billions (i.e. 35 000 per adult) W = 9 500 billions (200 000 per adult) W/Y = 560%: on average individual wealth = about 5.5-6 years of income On average: YL = 26 000 & YK = 9 000 capital share = 25% average rate of return r = 4.5% There are still two ways to get rich
The human capital illusion
Illusion n1: today human capital has replaced old-style capital ; modern growth = decline of coupon-clipping rentiers & triumph of meritocracy In fact, non-human wealth W (i.e. real estate + financial assets) & capital income YK (i.e. rent + dividend + interest) did not disappear at all: capital share stable around 30% since 19C ! But W/Y did follow a very pronounced U-shaped pattern during 20C long-lasting illusion
Wealth-income ratio in France 1820-2008
900% 800% 700% 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100%
Private wealth as a fraction of national income
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
The war of ages illusion
Illusion n2: today the war of generations has replaced old-style class war ; modern wealth accumulation = life-cycle savings, not inherited wealth It is true that inheritance virtually disappeared during 1950s-60s; but this was a purely transitory phenomenon Key intuition: with r>g (r=4-5% vs g=1-2%), wealth coming from the past is being capitalized faster than growth, and is bound to dominate wealth coming from labor savings
40% 36% 32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0%
Annual inheritance flow as a fraction of national income, France 1820-2008
Economic flow (computed from national wealth estimates, mortality tables and observed age-wealth profiles)
Fiscal flow (computed from observed bequest and gift tax data, inc. tax exempt assets)
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
40% 36% 32% 28% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0%
Annual inheritance flow as a fraction of disposable income, France 1820-2008
Economic flow (computed from national wealth estimates, mortality tables and observed age-wealth profiles) Fiscal flow (computed from observed bequest and gift tax data, inc. tax exempt assets)
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Can wealth inequality 19C ?
Wealth inequality: astronomical levels around 1900-1910: Top 1% share 50%; Top 10% share 90%; tiny middle class Inequality started only after 1914 Today: Top 1% 20%, Top 10% 50%, Middle 40% 40%, Bottom 50% < 10%... Why no recovery since 1945? Progressive tax & income growth? This can change & todays top wealth shares are probably under-estimated: tax havens etc. Impact of 07-09 crisis on W inequality? ?
Wealth concentration, Paris and France, 1807-1994
80% 70% 60% 50%
1847 1857 1867 1913 1902 1877 1887 1929
40% 30% 20%
1807
1817
1827
1837
1938
Top 1% wealth share (Paris)
Top 1% wealth share (France)
1827 1847 1867 1887 1907 1927
1947 1956
1807
1947
1967
1987
1994
Top Heirs vs Top Labor Earners
What is the best way to get rich? Inheritance or labor income? Lifetime perspective on inequality Bottom 50% labor earners vs Top 50% heirs we are already back to 19C Top 10% heirs vs Average labor income we are still far from 19C but we are on the way
120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
1850
Top 50% inheritance vs bottom 50% lifetime labor income received by cohorts 1850-2000
top 50% inheritance as a fraction of bottom 50% lifetime pre-tax labor income ressources (about 15 000 x 60yrs)
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0%
Top 10% inheritance vs average lifetime labor income received by cohorts 1850-2000
top 10% inheritance as a fraction of average lifetime pre-tax labor income ressources
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2000% 1800% 1600% 1400% 1200% 1000% 800% 600% 400% 200% 0%
Top 1% inheritance vs average lifetime labor income received by cohorts 1850-2000
top 1% inheritance as a fraction of average lifetime pre-tax labor income ressources
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
The Working Rich Illusion
US 77-07: >50% of total growth was
absorbed by top 1%
Technological story: This is because the marginal product of the working rich has risen enormously Very nave view of the top labor market! Grabbing hand story: When pay setters set their own pay, there are no limits to rent extraction unless confiscatory marginal tax rates at the very top Memo: US top rate (1m$+) 1932-80 : 82%
50%
Are the U.S. the Future?
United States
Top Decile Income Share
45%
France
40%
35%
30%
25%
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
25%
Are the U.S. the Future? (contd')
20%
15%
10%
5%
Top 1% (incomes above $398,900 in 2007)
Top 5-1% (incomes between $155,400 and $398,900)
Top 10-5% (incomes between $109,600 and $155,400)
0%
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Why do we care?
Lenin 1916: WW1 as the product of 19C capitalist inequality (Imperialism, the highest stage of capitalism: nationalism as working class opium; imperialism due to competition over foreign assets between capitalists) a bit simplistic, but not completely wrong: unregulated capitalism knows no limit and can create huge social & political tensions; the level of inequality around 1900-1910 was truly astonishing
Why do we care? (contd)
21C capitalism can be even worst: rentiertype 19C inequality + working-rich inequality + global scale, weak govts, tax havens... Democracies rely on meritocratic values; capitalism can destroy these values; Golden-age postwar meritocratic societies were built upon transitory illusions ; they are fragile & can disappear Some of todays economists seem ready to accept & justify any inequality level (just like mainstream economists around 1900); but societies wont accept
What shall we do?
I turned 18 in 1989; I dont want USSR; I believe in markets for efficiency & freedom But we need tough regulation & tax policy; this will require violent fights against tax havens & the rich; not just a few quiet G20 summits 20C inequality compression = temporary illusion due to the wars: old wealth destruction + war-induced political reaction Lets try to make 21C anti-inequality policies less violent & more durable
