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Technical view June 2014
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June 2014
Sensex: Monthly View
CMP: 24214.34 (+8.03%) Resistance: 25175-25500-26000 Support: 24000-23500-23000
June 2014 AXIS Securities Ltd 2
Technical view
Sensex witnessed a strong rally of 1800 points in May 2014. In the process it has marked all time high of
25375 with strong volume and closed near all time closing high level at 24217. Most of the index stocks have
shown good strength and outperformed index. Banking, Capital goods, Cons durable, Realty, Metal and
Power sector were major contributors to this rally while FMGC, Healthcare and IT sectors underperformed.
This indicates bullish sentiment in the Near term/ Short term.
On the monthly chart Sensex has formed bullish candle with long upper shadow indicating selling at
higher level. Sensex has given the breakout of contracting triangle pattern in month of March 2014 at 21500
level, Pattern breakout suggests Sensex could move in range of 27000-29000 in short to medium term. The
index is moving in a Higher Top and Higher Bottom formation on the monthly chart. This indicates
sustained strength and that positive momentum is likely to continue in the coming months.
Sensex is well placed above its important moving averages [50 dma (22940), 100 dma (21925) and 200 dma
(21035)]. On the daily chart Golden crossover, which happened in the month of October 13 is still
intact, the 50 day SMA has crossed above the 200 day SMA indicating that the Medium / Long term trend
of Sensex continues to remain positive, albeit after a small correction.
Sensex chart pattern indicates 25175-25500 is likely to act as a resistance on the upside. Minor dips in Sensex
are expected to get good support at 24100-23700. Any breakout above 25500 on closing basis would attract
more euphoric buying in the market and Sensex can rally up to 26000-26500 in the short term. However, If
Sensex breaks 23700, that will accelerate selling pressure and we could see downward move up to 23000-
22600 in the short term.
Sensex weekly indicator RSI is inching up above 50 marks along with positive crossover, Daily RSI has
given positive crossover indicating further strength. The weekly and daily momentum Oscillator stochastic
has turned upward from oversold zone with a positive crossover supporting bullish sentiment ahead. Short
term and medium term MACD indicators are placed in positive zone suggesting index would remain
strong in short/ medium term.
We expect Sensex will continue its upward rally and is expected to move to the range of 25500-26000 levels.
Sensex is expected to trade in the range of 23000-26000 range for the month of June 2014. Minor dip Any
minor dip or minor correction in Sensex should be used as buying opportunity. Preferred strategy would
be to buy bullish stocks on dips.
June 2014 AXIS Securities Ltd 3
Technical view
S&P CNX NIFTY: Monthly view
CMP: 7229.95 (+7.97%) Resistance: 7340-7550-7650 Support: 7180-7100-6900
June 2014 AXIS Securities Ltd 4
Technical view
Nifty witnessed a strong rally of 533 points in May 2014. In the process it has marked all time high of 7563
with strong volume and closed near all time closing high level at 7229. Most of the index stocks have shown
good strength and outperformed index. Banking ,Capital goods, Cons durable, Realty, Metal and Power
sector were major contributors to this rally while FMGC, Healthcare and IT sectors underperformed. This
indicates bullish sentiment in the Near term/ Short term.
On the monthly chart Nifty has formed bullish candle with long upper shadow indicating selling at higher
level. Nifty has given the breakout of contracting triangle pattern in month of March 2014 at 6400 level,
Pattern breakout suggests Nifty could move in range of 7800-8000 in short to medium term. The index is
moving in a Higher Top and Higher Bottom formation on the monthly chart. This indicates sustained
strength and that positive momentum is likely to continue in the coming months.
Nifty is well placed above its important moving averages [50 dma (6850), 100 dma (6535) and 200 dma
(6255)]. On the daily chart Golden crossover , which happened in the month of October 13 is still intact
, the 50 day SMA has crossed above the 200 day SMA indicating that the Medium / Long term trend of
Nifty continues to remain positive, albeit after a small correction.
Nifty chart pattern indicates 7450-7560 is likely to act as a resistance on the upside. Minor dips in Nifty are
expected to get good support at 7200-7100. Any breakout above 7560 on closing basis would attract more
euphoric buying in the market and Nifty can rally up to 7650-7800 in the short term. However, If Nifty
breaks 7100,that will accelerate selling pressure and we could see downward move up to 7000-6900 in the
short term.
Nifty weekly indicator RSI is inching up above 50 marks along with positive crossover, Daily RSI has given
positive crossover indicating further strength. The weekly and daily momentum Oscillator stochastic has
turned upward from oversold zone with a positive crossover supporting bullish sentiment ahead. Short
term and medium term MACD indicators are placed in positive zone suggesting index would remain
strong in short/ medium term.
We expect Nifty will continue its upward rally and is expected to move to the range of 7560-7650 levels.
Nifty is expected to trade in the range of 7100-7600 range for the month of June 2014. Minor dip Any minor
dip or minor correction in Nifty should be used as buying opportunity. Preferred strategy would be to buy
bullish stocks on dips.
June 2014 AXIS Securities Ltd 5
Technical view
Stock trend:
The trend for Nifty 50 stocks are as given under:
Bullish trend:
ACC, AMBUJA, BANKOFBARODA, BPCL, CAIRN, COAL INDIA, GAIL, HEROMOTOCO, HINDALCO,
ICICIBANK, IDFC, INDUSINDBANK, KOTAKBANK, L&T, M&M, MARUTI, NMDC, PNB,
RELIANCEIND, SBI, TATA STEEL, TECH MAHINDRA, ULTRATECH, UNITED SPIRITS, BHEL, DLF,
GRASIM, ONGC, SSLT, TATA POWER, BHART IAIRTEL, HDFC BANK
Bearish trend:
DRREDDY, INFOSYS, WIPRO, CIPLA
Sideways trend:
ASIANPAINT, BAJAJAUTO, HCLTECH, HDFC, ITC, LUPIN, SUNPHARMA, TATAMOTORS, TCS,
JINDALSTEEL, NTPC, HINDUNILEVER, POWERGRID
June 2014 AXIS Securities Ltd 6
Technical view
Sector Analysis
The following section contains our technical view on and analysis of trends in sectors for the month of June 2014.
Note: Stocks marked in BLUE are Nifty-50 stocks.
Auto CMP: 4493.77(+8.39%) Resistance: 15300-16100-17130 Support: 14000-13750-13650 Short term trend: Bullish
For the fourth consecutive month the Bse Auto index extended
its uptrend registering all time high of 15074.
On the monthly chart index has formed a strong bullish candle
and has decisively broken out of the Upward sloping Channel
which signals bullish bias.
This rally is accompanied with high volumes which are above
average compared to previous months.
The medium as well as long term trend continues to remain
bullish as index is forming higher top and higher Bottom
formation across all the time frames.
An appropriate strategy is to buy bullish stocks near major
supports at 14000-13750 levels. Important resistance levels for
the month are 15300-16100
Bullish trend: Bosch, CumminsInd, ExideInd, Heromotoco, M&M, Maruti, MothersonSumi.
Bearish trend: None
Sideways trend: BajajAuto, MRF Tyres, TataMotors
Banking
CMP: 16953.86 (+15.28%) Resistance: 17990-18420-19890 Support: 16540-16110-15720 Short term trend: Bullish
With 15% strong gains index has witnessed a decisive
breakout of its three years horizontal Channels resistance of
15000-15200 levels.
On the monthly chart index has formed a strong sizable
bullish candle with high volumes indicating bullish
sentiments
Index is trending higher across all the time frames forming
higher Top and higher Bottom formation
The monthly strength indicator RSI and the momentum
oscillator Stochastic are both in bullish mode supporting
bullish sentiments ahead.
Important support levels for the month are 16540 and 16110
while resistance levels are 17990 and 18420
An appropriate strategy is to buy bullish stocks near major
supports
Bullish trend: Bank Of Baroda, Bank Of Ind., Canara Bank, Federal Bank, ICICI Bank, Indusind Bank, Kotak Bank, PNB,
SBIN, Yes Bank , HDFC Bank
Bearish trend: None
Sideways trend: None
June 2014 AXIS Securities Ltd 7
Technical view
Cap. Goods CMP: 14716.81(+21.44%) Resistance: 15660-16860-17890 Support: 14320-13570-12950 Short term trend: Bullish
The BSE Cap. Goods index has outperformed the
Sensex.
On the monthly chart index has formed a sizable
bullish candle and it has also broken out of its earlier
resistance zone of 11300 on a closing basis
With previous month's high (15654) index is
approaching towards its earlier Top of 16860 and any
sustainable rally above this would open fresh upside
On the weekly as well as on monthly chart index has
witnessed shift of trend to the upside
An appropriate strategy is to buy and accumulate the
bullish stocks near support zone
Important support levels for the month are 14320-
13570 while resistance exists at 15660-16860.
Bullish trend: ABB, AIA Engi, Alstom Ind, Bharat Electronics, Fag Bearings, Havells Ind, IL&FS Transportation, Lakshmi
Machine, L&T, Pipavav Defence, SKF Ind, Sadbhav Engineering Ltd, Siemens, Suzlon Energy, Thermax Ltd, Va Tech
Wabag, BHEL, Jindal Saw, Punj Lloyd Ltd.
Bearish trend: None
Sideways trend: None
Cons. Durable CMP: 7713.46(+18.35%) Resistance: 8350-8470-8580 Support: 7480-7280-6860 Short term trend: Bullish
Bse Cons.Durable has outperformed the Bse Sensex
gaining 18%
Index has given a strong breakout to its 10 months
consolidation range (6600-5300 levels) representing
positive bias.
On the monthly chart index formed a strong bullish
candle and also registered a new all-time high at 8462
This rally is coupled with rising volumes indicating
increasing participation
On the monthly chart if index trades and closes above
8250 then it may scale further upwards
The monthly RSI and Stochastic are in bullish mode
supporting bullish sentiments
An appropriate strategy is to buy and accumulate near
support zone. Important support levels for the month
are 7480-7240 while resistance exists at 8350 and 8470
Bullish trend: Bajaj Electricals, Blue Star, PC Jweller, Rajesh Exports, Titan Ind, Whirpool
Bearish trend: None
Sideways trend: Gitanjali Gems, TTK Prestige Ltd., Videocon, VIP Ind.
June 2014 AXIS Securities Ltd 8
Technical view
FMCG
CMP: 6864.13 (+1.49%) Resistance: 7000-7120-7360 Support: 6610-6450-6220 Short term trend: Bullish
The benchmark index has underperformed the BSE
Sensex. Index has witnessed marginal gain of 1.50%.
On the monthly chart index has formed a Doji
candlestick formation representing indecisiveness
Since past one year index is consolidating within a
narrow range of 7000-6300 levels representing
sideways trend across all the time frames
With prior months high index has witnessed an
intra-month upside breakout at 7100 levels however
it closed below the same. Any decisive close above
7100 would result in bullish breakout
The monthly RSI has turned flat indicating absence
of strength on either side
An appropriate strategy is to buy bullish stocks on
major breakout of 7100. Important support levels are
6610-6450 while resistance levels are 7000-7120
Bullish trend: Dabur Ind, Marico, United Breweries, UNITEDSPIRITS
Bearish trend: None
Sideways trend: Colgate, Godrej Consumer, HINDUNILEVER, ITC, Nestle, Tata Global
Healthcare CMP: 10315.41 (-4.11%) Resistance: 10600-10750-10900 Support: 10070-9880-9430 Short term trend: Nuetral
The benchmark index has underperformed the BSE
Sensex losing 4%
For the fourth consecutive month index has extended its
sideways consolidation within 10900-10000 levels
This signals selling pressure at higher levels as well as
absence of strength on either side.
On the upside any decisive move above 10893 would
cause further rally however a close below 9880 would
cause profit booking
The monthly RSI and Stochastic indicators are both in
negative mode along with negative crossover indicating
weakness
An appropriate strategy is to buy on breakout.
Important support levels for the month are 10070 -9880
while resistance levels are 10600 and 10750
Bullish trend: Aurobindo Pharma, Ipca Labs , Piramal Enter
Bearish trend: Cadila Healthcare, Cipla, Divis Lab, DrReddy, GlaxoSmithKline , Strides Arcolab, Wockhadt
Sideways trend: Apollo Hospital, Biocon, Glenmark, Lupin, Ranbaxy, Sunpharma
June 2014 AXIS Securities Ltd 9
Technical view
IT CMP: 8455.36 (-3.39%) Resistance: 9050-9400-9700 Support: 8250-8000-7600 Short term trend: Bearish
The BSE IT index has under-performed the BSE Sensex in
May.
On the monthly chart the index is moving in an upward
slanting channel formation and had witnessed selling
from channel resistance at 9800, it eventually moved
towards the lower end of the channel.
The pattern indicates that the index is likely to continue
its downward momentum and is likely to come down
towards its channel support placed at 8000 level.
However, if the index manages to move above 9050 level
it can witness buying which would lead it towards 9400-
9700 levels.
On the monthly and weekly chart the RSI is in the
negative zone indicating negative bias.
Important resistances for the month are placed at 9050
and 9400. Important supports for the month are placed at
8250 and 8000
An appropriate strategy is to sell at current levels and
buy on declines or buy above 9050 level and sell on
rallies.
Bullish trend: Mindtree, TechMahindra
Bearish trend: Hexaware, Infosys, OracleFin, Wipro
Sideways trend: HCLTech, Mphasis, TCS
Metals CMP: 12292.69 (+23.16%) Resistance: 13520-13890-14100 Support: 12010-11850-11550 Short term trend: Bullish
The BSE Metals index has out-performed the BSE Sensex
in May.
The index has broken above its long term downward
moving channel at 8850 level and has seen a huge follow-
up in the month of May with huge volumes confirming
the breakout.
The index has also crossed above important resistance of
11550 which would now become an important support
area on the downside.
The pattern suggests that the index is likely to move
further upwards towards 13520-13890 levels.
The Monthly and weekly RSI continue to remain positive
indicating positive bias.
An appropriate strategy is to buy at current levels and on
dips and sell on rallies near important resistances placed
at 13520 and 13890. Important supports exist at 12010 and
11850.
Bullish trend: COALIND, Hindalco, Hindzinc, JSWSTEEL, NMDC, SAIL, SSLT, TATASTEEL
Bearish trend: BhusanSteel
Sideways trend: JINDALSTEEL
June 2014 AXIS Securities Ltd 10
Technical view
Oil & Gas CMP: 10854.09 (+13.367%) Resistance: 11250-11840-12340 Support: 11010-10580-10300 Short term trend: Bullish
The BSE Oil and Gas index has out-performed the BSE
Sensex in May.
For the past many months the index was moving in a
Symmetrical Triangle formation and has moved
upwards by 2200 points in 3 months after more than 35
months of consolidation indicating strength.
The index is now placed at stiff resistance at 11250. If the
index manages to cross above 11250 it would witness
further buying which would lead the index towards
11840-12340 levels
However if the index cannot cross above 11250 it would
witness consolidation activity within the range of 11250-
10300 levels.
Monthly & weekly RSI are trading above their respective
reference lines indicating positive bias.
An appropriate strategy is to buy at current levels and
on declines and sell on rallies.
Important Resistance levels for the month are placed at
11250 and 11840. Important Supports are placed at 11010
and 10580.
Bullish trend: BPCL, Cairn, GAIL, HPCL, IGL, IOC, OIL, ONGC, Petronet, RELIANCEIND
Bearish trend: None
Sideways trend: None
Power CMP: 2166.65 (+28.47%) Resistance: 2450-2750-3000 Support: 2050-1820-1650 Short term trend: Bullish
The BSE Power index has out-performed the BSE Sensex
in May.
The index has witnessed a breakout of the Triangle
formation at the 1820 levels in the month of May.
The chart pattern suggests that the index is likely to
move upwards and continue its buying momentum up
to key resistances placed at 2450-3000 levels.
The breakout has been accompanied by higher than
average volume which confirms the reversal of trend to
upwards.
Weekly & Monthly RSI are both trading above the
reference lines indicating positive bias.
Important supports for the month are placed at 2050 and
1820. Important Resistances are placed at 2450 and 2750.
An appropriate strategy is to buy at current levels and
on declines and sell on rallies.
Bullish trend: ABB, Adani Power, BHEL, CESC, GMRINFRA, JPAssociates, JSWENERGY, NHPC, PTC, Relinfra, Rpower,
Siemens, TataPower, Thermax, Torrent Power
Bearish trend: None
Sideways trend: NTPC, Powergrid, Crompton
June 2014 AXIS Securities Ltd 11
Technical view
Realty CMP: 1894.34 (+35.62%) Resistance: 2100-2250-2400 Support: 1850-1730-1650 Short term trend: Bullish
The BSE Realty index has out-performed the BSE
Sensex in May.
The index has finally broken above the upward
sloping trendline placed at 1650 after a consolidation
of many weeks.
The chart pattern suggests that the index is likely to
witness further buying which would take the index
towards 2100-2300 levels.
The breakout has been accompanied by higher than
average volume which confirms the reversal of trend
to upwards.
Monthly & weekly RSI are trading above their
respective reference lines indicating positive bias.
An appropriate strategy is to buy at current levels and
on declines and sell on rallies towards important
resistances placed at 2100 and 2250. Important
supports are placed at 1850 and 1730.
Bullish trend: DLF, GodrejProp, HDIL, IBREALEST, M&M Fin, Omaxe, Prestige, Sobha, Unitech
Bearish trend: None
Sideways trend: AnantRaj, DBREALTY, Oberoi Realty, Phoenix Mills
June 2014 AXIS Securities Ltd 12
Technical view
Monthly Technical Picks: June 2014
Buy Range Stop Loss Target
Oil & Gas
Reliance Industries Ltd 1,100-1080 1,050 1,180
Steel & Power
Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. 325-319 305 360
FMCG
Godrej Industries Ltd 316-310 300 340
Telecom Services
Reliance Communications Ltd 150-145 140 172
** The stocks are in monthly bearish trend, however as they are placed at multi-month support zone, we expect pull-back
action in these stocks from the support zone.
Monthly Call Performance: May 2013
Stock Buying Range
Stop
Loss
Target Remark
Hindpetro 335-329 315 366 Tgt Achieved
Divis Lab 1,360-1,340 1,310 1,430 SL Triggered
Bajaj Fin Serv 820-806 780 880 Closed @790
Hindalco 132-128 122 146 Tgt Achieved
June 2014 AXIS Securities Ltd 13
Technical view
Monthly Support and Resistance for Nifty 50 stocks
Name Monthly Close R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2
ACC 1337 1551 1444 1353 1245 1154
AMBUJACEM 218 266 242 217 193 168
ASIANPAINT 508 587 547 524 485 462
AXISBANK 1836 2173 2004 1761 1592 1348
BAJAJ-AUTO 1944 2214 2079 1960 1824 1705
BANKBARODA 843 1101 972 881 752 662
BHARTIARTL 344 378 361 333 316 288
BHEL 242 352 297 237 182 122
BPCL 522 655 589 522 455 389
CAIRN 338 384 361 345 322 306
CIPLA 385 450 417 392 360 335
COALINDIA 371 485 428 360 303 235
DLF 210 278 244 191 157 104
DRREDDY 2461 2996 2728 2487 2220 1979
GAIL 378 471 424 390 344 310
GRASIM 3179 3704 3442 3012 2750 2321
HCLTECH 1419 1576 1497 1377 1298 1178
HDFC 877 1028 952 881 806 735
HDFCBANK 793 929 861 786 718 644
HEROMOTOCO 2346 3089 2717 2416 2045 1744
HINDALCO 148 181 164 147 131 113
HINDUNILVR 603 654 629 590 564 525
ICICIBANK 1418 1772 1595 1416 1240 1061
IDFC 126 167 147 127 107 87
INDUSINDBK 534 647 590 531 474 415
INFY 2939 3513 3226 3053 2766 2593
ITC 342 408 375 355 322 302
JINDALSTEL 298 368 333 285 249 201
KOTAKBANK 869 1026 947 872 794 719
LT 1546 1851 1698 1475 1322 1099
LUPIN 936 1074 1005 954 885 833
M&M 1236 1420 1328 1186 1094 953
MARUTI 2272 2853 2563 2214 1924 1575
MCDOWELL-N 2818 3043 2931 2761 2649 2479
NMDC 170 211 190 169 148 127
NTPC 161 201 181 147 127 93
ONGC 378 478 428 375 326 273
PNB 944 1224 1084 928 787 631
POWERGRID 122 152 137 120 104 87
RELIANCE 1065 1265 1165 1045 945 825
SBIN 2542 3271 2906 2471 2107 1671
SSLT 280 355 318 248 211 141
SUNPHARMA 611 677 644 608 575 539
TATAMOTORS 415 487 451 429 393 371
TATAPOWER 104 130 117 96 83 63
TATASTEEL 475 560 517 453 410 346
TCS 2141 2385 2263 2131 2009 1878
TECHM 1923 2075 1999 1863 1787 1651
ULTRACEMCO 2382 2899 2641 2296 2037 1692
WIPRO 506 562 534 504 477 447
June 2014 AXIS Securities Ltd 14
Technical view
Technical Team
Rajesh Palviya
AGM Research - Head Technical Analyst
Nirav Chheda
Technical Analyst
Vaishnavi Jagtap
Technical Analyst
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