The Role of Nuclear Energy
as part of a diversified mix
Dr Paul JA Howarth
Director of Research, Dalton Nuclear Institute
25th May 2006
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Vision to become a world leading centre for education & research on
nuclear technology
Activities cover full nuclear lifecycle with research portfolio of ~£50m
To act independently & authoritatively on advising government &
Theindustry
Victoria University ofon nuclear related issues
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Manchester
Nuclear is not the Answer!
A balanced and diversified mix of fossil,
renewables & nuclear is the answer!
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The Victoria University of Manchester
Nuclear is alive and well around the World
• Provides 16% of world’s electricity
• 440 nuclear reactors operating worldwide
• More than 11,000 reactor-years of operating experience
• 6 new plants connected in 2004
• 27 new plants under construction
• In Europe:
– Finland are constructing a 1600 MWe PWR (EPR)
– France to build EPR demonstrator at Flamanville & maintain
nuclear contribution
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Combining the strengths of UMIST and
The Victoria University of Manchester
Projected rundown of UK nuclear energy
14000
12000
10000 Hinkley B and
Hunterston B
retirements
8000
MWe Dungeness B
retirement Heysham 2 and
6000 Torness
retirements
Heysham 1 and
4000 Hartlepool
retirements
2000
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Sizewell B PWR AGR stations Magnox stations
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Attributes of Nuclear: Avoids more CO2
than Kyoto
Kyoto CO2 reduction target for
OECD countries:
700 million tonnes/year * CO2 avoided by nuclear power in
the OECD:
1200 million tonnes/year *
* Nuclear Energy and the Kyoto Protocol, Nuclear Energy Agency, 2002
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Safety Record
900
Deaths per TWe/y
800
700
World
600 OECD
500
400
300
200
100
4 1 0
0
Coal Natural Hydro Nuclear
Gas
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Volumes of Waste Produced
from 1GWe-year of Electricity
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Significant Improvements in Output
100.0
90.0
Load Factor %
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: WANO and Nuclear Energy Institute
US world Year
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New Plant Construction Experience Korea
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Advanced Light Water Generation 3 Systems
Westinghouse AP1000
1150MWe - simpler design with
passive systems relying on natural
processes to further improve safety
Has received certification in the US
Areva EPR
1600MWe - improved French/German
design with improve safety margin and
operational envelope.
Currently being constructed in Finland
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AP1000 Plant Simplifications
80% Fewer 45% Less 70% Less
50% Fewer 35% Fewer 80% Less Heating, Seismic Cable
Valves Pipe* Ventilating & Building
Pumps
Cooling Units Volume
* Safety Grade Compared to a conventional, 2-loop 600 MWe plant
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Modern nuclear costs are understood
and can be competitive
Typical costs are in range £20-30/MWh
All costs are accounted for …..
Capital
17%
Decommissioning
2%
41% Operations and
Maintenance
Fuel
25%
Spent Fuel Management
2% Financing
13%
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Nuclear economics are very sensitive
to investor risk
4.5
4 MIT
3.5
Chicago
Generating Cost p/kWh
2.5 OECD-2
RAE
2 DGEMP
Tarjanne
1.5 OECD- 1
0.5
4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13%
Discount Rate
Lower end of range Upper end of range Trend line for average
value
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Next Generation Technology: High Temperature
Gas-Cooled Reactors
• Small (~400 MWt) modular reactor
– Helium cooled
– Graphite moderated
– Direct cycle gas turbine
– High outlet temperature: 900°C
– Very high degree of inherent safety
• Prototype demonstration in South Africa by 2012/3
• High outlet temperature implies efficient hydrogen
generation through thermochemical cycles
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A Timeline for Replacement
Nuclear Build
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Possible Future Nuclear Capacity in the UK
14000
12000
10000
8000
MWe
6000
4000
2000
0
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
Existing stations Potential AGR life extension New Build
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Size of the Challenge
Electricity
? 100GWe
for H2
Generation
140GWe
~60GWe
Assumed
Installed Future
UK UK
Capacity Nuclear
Capacity 20GWe
~80GWe ~80GWe Renewables 20GWe
TODAY 2020+
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Thank You!
[email protected]
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