Published in World Fire Statistics Bulletin No.

28, October 2012

Commentaries and Notes

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Excerpt: Fire Death Rate TrendsAn International

Perspective1
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The WFSC is pleased to include an excerpt from an issue of the Topical Fire Report Series published
by the U.S. Fire Administration, an entity of the Department of Homeland Securitys Federal Emergency
Management Agency (FEMA). The article Fire Death Rate Trends: An International Perspective
makes extensive use of WFSC historical data. We include this excerpt as an example of how other
organisations are applying WFSC data in their own work. To obtain the complete article free online,
please visit the USFA website at http://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v12i8.pdf. All
material below is taken from the USFA article.
Historically, the fire death rate in the United States has been higher than most of the industrialized
world.2 This has held true for both fire deaths and dollar-loss rates. The causes of the United States
prominent standing in this area are not entirely clear and have been the subject of debate for some
time. To compound the issue, the United States is comparatively safety conscious and one of the most
technologically-advanced nations in the world. To have such high fire death rates is perplexing for a
country that ranks so highly in those two areas. While today the United States still has one of the
highest fire death rates in the industrialized world, its standing has greatly improved. Falling from
among the top three nations in terms of the fire death rate two decades ago, the United States now has
the tenth highest fire death rate per million people, putting the Nation in the upper half of the countries
reviewed.3
This report explores the nature of the United States fire death problem and compares it to those of 23
other industrialized nations. The comparison reveals the magnitude of the fire death problem and
differences between the nations. Trends in overall rates and disparities between countries are also
explored.4
1
2

USFA-FEMA Topical Fire Report Series, Volume 12, Issue 8 (July 2011).
Fire death rates are determined by the number of deaths occurring to a specific population group divided by the total
population for that group. This ratio is then multiplied by a common population size. For the purposes of this report,
fire death rates are measured per 1 million persons. For example, the 2007 fire death rate per million population for
the United States is computed from the total number of fire deaths (3,750) divided by the total U.S. population
(301,621,000) multiplied by 1,000,000 persons. This rate is equivalent to 12.4 deaths per 1 million population.
Of the 27 countries whose fire-related data are presented in the World Fire Statistics Centre (WFSC) yearly Bulletins,
24 industrialised nations were reviewed. The relative standing of the United States is given in terms of this sample.
Countries reviewed were the United States, Australia, Austria, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Singapore,
Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom. Belgium, West Germany, and Czechoslovakia were
excluded because of limited pre-1992 data and because the latter two countries no longer exist.
Analyses are based on fire death data from the WFSC yearly Bulletins and population estimate data from the United
Nations (U.N.) Demographic Yearbook. Fire deaths, as presented by the WFSC, include firefighter deaths and an
adjustment for deaths unknown to fire brigades and/or hospitals, and for rounding. United States fire death
estimates from WFSC vary from year-to-year from those based on the U.S. Fire Administrations (USFAs) analysis of
mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and from the National Fire Protection Association
(NFPA) estimates. Analyses of the differences in these estimates from 1999 to 2007 (since the use of the
International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes for United States mortality data) show that the differences in
the WFSC estimates and USFAs analysis of the NCHS data average less than 1 per cent. The differences between

The Geneva Association

World Fire Statistics N 28 / October 2012

The International Fire Picture

Although reliable statistics are available for fire incidence and fire loss rates in the United States,
diverse recordkeeping and fire classification practices in different countries preclude reliable
international comparisons of these rates. Loss estimates can even vary within a country, depending on
the source of the information. This variation is especially true for data regarding monetary loss. The
monetary loss reported by a fire department can vary significantly from that assessed by an insurance
company. And both of these estimates may differ from the monetary loss as perceived by the owner or
occupant. Fire deaths, however, are generally less controversial as they are more readily identified and
consistently counted, although they too have reporting problems. In the United States, for example,
data on fire deaths can come from estimates derived from a statistical sample of fire departments5 or
from data collected from death certificates, coded and collated by proximate cause of death.6
Nonetheless, these two sources, more often than not, provide relatively similar numbers. Because of
these and similar considerations, the following analyses comparing the United States to other
industrialized countries are limited to fire deaths.7
Overall Fire Death Rate Trends
Table 1 is a trend comparison of the available international fire death rates. Data were not available for
all of the years in question for every country and the resulting trends do not always reflect the full 29
years between 1979 and 2007. However, fire death rate trends in 13 of the 23 nations reflect 23 or
more years of data. Six nations, the United Kingdom, the United States, Hungary, Sweden, Denmark,
and Japan, have data for all 29 years. The data demonstrate that, in general, fire death rates per million
population have been decreasing over the past decades. Of the countries studied, only Denmark,
Japan, and the Czech Republic recorded increases in their fire death rates per million population; all
other countries lowered their fire death rates and many by substantial margins.

the WFSC and the NFPA survey estimate of fire deaths, including firefighter deaths, average 6 per cent, with the
WFSC estimates consistently higher.
NFPA conducts an annual survey of fire departments. The survey sample is chosen from a statistically random
selection of United States fire departments. The NFPA estimates are created using stratified sampling techniques.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), NCHS, collects and disseminates United States vital
statistics data. These data are provided through contracts between NCHS and vital registration systems operated in
the various jurisdictions legally responsible for the registration of vital events. The NCHS mortality data from the
National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) are based on data collected from death certificates. Coding of medical
information on the death certificate follows World Health Organization rules specified in the ICD. As fire is not a
specific disease classification in the ICD, the counting of fire deaths can be subject to some interpretation.
Fire deaths, as presented by the WFSC, include firefighter deaths and an adjustment for deaths unknown to fire
brigades and/or hospitals, and for rounding. United States fire death estimates from WFSC vary from year-to-year
from those based on USFAs analysis of NCHS mortality data and NFPA estimates. Analyses of the differences in
these estimates from 1999 to 2007 (since the use of the ICD-10 for United States mortality data) show that the
differences in the WFSC estimates and USFAs analysis of the NCHS data average less than 1 percent. The
differences between the WFSC and the NFPA survey estimate of fire deaths, including firefighter deaths, average 6
percent, with the WFSC estimates consistently higher.

The Geneva Association

World Fire Statistics N 28 / October 2012

Death Rate Trends by Region

The changes in fire death rates by region are shown in Table 2. [WFSC Note: Table 2 not included in
excerpt.] Six regions, one of which is a single country, are identified as follows:

Western Europe: Switzerland, Netherlands, Austria, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Italy,
Germany, and Ireland;

Eastern Europe: Slovenia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, and Greece;

Oceania: Australia and New Zealand;

Japan;

North America: Canada and the United States; and

Scandinavia: Norway, Finland, Sweden, and Denmark.

The fit ratio (R2) shown in the table indicates the amount of variability between the data and the linear
trend line, which estimates the change in the death rate from 1979 to 2007. A higher fit ratio indicates
less variance in actual fire death rates compared to values predicted by the trend line. Fit ratios vary
from 0.0 to 1.0, with 0.0 indicating no fit and 1.0 indicating a perfect fit. It is important to note that
fluctuations evident in the regional fire death rates reflect both actual changes in fire death rates and
changes in the quality of fire data collected. The trend shown in Table 2 for Japan can be said to have
no fit at all. The lack of correlation for the Japanese trend line is an indication of the variability of the fire
death rate (and the underlying data) and reductions (or gains) derived from the trend data must be
viewed with caution. The Oceania and Scandinavian trends can also be said to have a moderate fit.
Figure 4 presents a comparison of the fire death rate trends from 1979 to 2007 of the remaining three
regions with strong trend fit ratios: Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and North America. Eastern
Europe and North America have steep trend lines, starting with very high fire fatality rates and ending in
the moderate range. In fact, North America and Eastern Europe experienced 67 and 66 percent overall
annual reductions in their fire death rates, respectively, comparing favorably to the 65 percent reduction
for Western Europe.

The Geneva Association

World Fire Statistics N 28 / October 2012

Other Influencing Factors

Further research is needed to
studied. The differences could
education, building practices
example, Japan has an acute
deaths considerably.8

reveal the source of the differences in the death rates of the nations
be due to a number of factors, including fire prevention practices and
and regulations, differences in lifestyle, and cultural attitudes. For
problem with incendiary suicide, which pushes up the number of fire

The proportion of seniors in a country could also be a possible factor in the difference between fire
death rates in countries. In the United States, the fire death rate from that segment is much higher than
that of the general population.9 Older adults face a greater risk of fire death than most people,10 as they
may have impaired mobility or senses, and have a greater chance to have reduced mental faculties due
largely to Alzheimers Disease.11 Japanese data suggest that the increase in their fire death rate is at
least partially due to their aging population.12 Whether age distribution has a strong effect on fire death
rates requires further investigation.
One of the difficulties in determining the cause of different fire death rates internationally is the lack of
data available. Nations do not share very much or very specific data with other countries, making indepth examination more difficult. Increased cooperation between nations in the future could shed more
light into the causes of fire deaths and effective preventative measures.

This article was published by The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The
Geneva Association). Articles, documents and recent publications of the Association can be found on its
website, at www.genevaassociation.org

8
9
10
11
12

Fire in the U.S. and Japan, NFPA, August 2003.

Trends in Older Adult Fire Death Rates (2003-2007).
Fire Risk to Older Adults in 2007, Topical Fire Report Series (Volume 11, Issue 10), USFA, February 2011.
Fire and the Older Adult, USFA, prepared by TriData Corporation, January 2006.
Global Concepts in Residential Fire Safety: Part 2Australia, New Zealand, and Japan, CDC, prepared by TriData
Corporation, 2008.