Test 4C AP Statistics Name: Direetions: Do all of your work on these sheets. Part 1: Multiple Choice. Circle the letier corresponding to the best answer, 1. A vatiable grows exponentially over time if (@ it increases by the addition of a fixed amount to the variable as time increases by a fixed amount. (b) it increases by squating its value whenever time is increased by a certain fixed amount. (©) it increases by multiplication by a fixed amount as time increases by a fixed amount. @ itinereases by the logarithm of its value whenever time is increased by # certain fixed amount, (©) none of these, A business has two types of employees, managers and workers, Managers earn either $100,000 or {$200,000 per year. Workers earn either $10,000 or $20,000 per year. The number of male and female managers at each salary level and the number of male and female workers at each salary level are given in the two tables below. Managers Horkers Hale Fenale Wale Female 3100,000 80-20, 310,000 30 20 $200,000 20 30 $20,000 20 80 2, The proportion of male managers who make $200,000 per year is (@ 0.067. (b) 0.133. (© 0.200. @ 0.400. © 0.667. 3. From these data we may conclude that (@) the mean salary of female managers is greater than that of male managers. (b) the mean salary of males in this business is greater than the mean salary of females. (©) the mean salary of female workers is greater than that of male workers. @ this is an example of Simpson's paradox. (©) allof the above. “An article in the student newspaper of a large university had the headline “A's swapped for evaluations?” The article included the following. ‘According to a new study, teachers may be more inclined to give higher grades to students, hoping to ‘gain favor with the university administrators who grant tenure. The study examined the average grade ‘and tenching evaluation in a large number of courses in order to investigate the effects of grade inflation ‘on evaluations, “Tam concerned with student evaluations because instruction has become a popularity ‘contest for some teachers,” said Professor Smith, who recently completed the study. Results showed that higher grades directly corresponded to a more positive evaluation, 4. Which of the following would be a valid conclusion to draw from the study? (@ A teacher can improve his or her teaching evaluations by giving good grades. (b) A good teacher, as measured by teaching evaluations, helps students learn better, resulting in higher grades. (©) Teachers of courses in which the mean grade is above average apparently tend to have above~ average teaching evaluations. (@ Teaching evaluations should be conducted before grades are awarded. (©) All ofthe above. Chapter 4 1 Test 4CPart 2: Free Response Answer completely, but be concise. Show your thought process clearly. i 5, A business school conducted a survey of companies in its state, ‘They mailed a questionnaire to 200 small companies, 200 medium-sized companies, and 200 large companies. The rate of nonresponse is important in deciding how reliable survey results are, Here are the data on response to this survey: Snail | Nediun | Large Response [125 on 40 No response |_75 | 119 T60 Total 200 | 200 200 @ What was the overall response rate? (b) Calculate appropriate conditional distributions (in percents) to show how nonresponse is related to the size of the business. (©) Draw a bar graph to compare the nonresponse percents for the three sizes of companies, (@) Use your work in (b) and (¢) to deseribe how nontesponse is related to the size of the business. Chapter 4 2 Test 4c6. Foresters are interested in predicting the amount of usable lumber they can harvest from various tree species. ‘The following data have been collected on the diameter of Ponderosa pine trees (in inches), measured at chest height, and the yield in board feet, Note that a board foot is defined as a piece of lumber 12 inches by 12 inches by 1 inch, (a) Use your calculator to construct a scatterplot that would help the ameter | Ba. Fe Diameter | PS- FeSt | foresters make their predictions, Describe what you see. 20 13 20 Fy a 294 19 28 32 123 22 52 38 asa 2s 56 7 16 (b) One forester suggests that a reasonable model for predicting amount of a1 aaa usable lumber (y) from Ponderosa pine diameter (x) is y=ax*. Use your ae ae calculator to perform a transformation that linearizes the data if the ae os forester’s suggested model is correct. Then find the equation of the least- 39 231 ‘squares line for the transformed data, Record the equation below. Define 23 ie7 | any variables you use. at 22 31 205 23 37 39 265 (©) How well does the linear model you calculated in (6) fit the transformed data? Justify your answer with graphical and numerical evidence, (@ Use your model fiom (b) to predict the amount of usable lumber from a Ponderosa pine with diameter 30 inches. Show your method, (©) Suggest a different transformation, involving logarithms, that would help linearize the data. Chapter 4 3 Test 4C7. There is a positive association between the number of drownings and ice cream sales. Is the association between these two variables most likely due to causation, confounding, or common response? Justify your answer. 8, Accompany tests two treatments for an illness. The following table shows outcomes by treatment for each trial. Trial 1 Trial 2 Treatment A Treatment B Treatment A____Treatment B Cases 200 200 Cases’ 100 400 Cured 40 30 Cured 85 300 @) Calculate the percent of cases that are cured in Trial 1 for each treatment. Then do likewise for ‘Trial 2, (b) Use the tables above to create a two-way table that shows the relationship between treatment used and treatment outcome. (©) Calculate the percent of cases that are cured with each treatment, (@ Explain your findings in (a) and (¢). Ipledge that I have neither given nor received aid on this tes, Chapter 4 4 Test ACTest 5D AP Statistics Name: Directions: Work on these sheets. Part 1: Multiple Choice. Circle the letter corresponding to the best answer. 1. Which of the following is CORRECT? (a) We do not need to randomize if our sample size is sufficiently large. (b) A large sample size always ensures that our sample is representative of the population, (©) Ifall other things are equal, we need a larger sample size for a larger population. (@ Ina properly chosen sample, an estimate will be less variable with a large sample size and hence more precise. (©) Inrandom samples, the randomization ensures that we get precise and accurate estimates. 2. A survey was done in the town of Mechanicsville to estimate the proportion of ears that are red and ‘made by companies based in Japan, A random sample of 25 cars from a student parking lot at Lee- Davis High School was taken. Which of the following is NOT CORRECT? (@ This sample may not be representative of the cars in Mechanicsville because mainly students park at Lee-Davis High School. (©) Ifthe particular parking space is vacant, we can simply select another parking space at random because it is unlikely that a space being vacant is related to the color or manufacturer of the car. (©) It would be dangerous to simply select the first 25 parking spaces in the lot closest to the ‘auditorium because there are a number of parking spaces there reserved for Drivers Bd vehicles, whose primary color is white. (@ A different team doing the sampling independently would obtain different answers for their sample proportions. (©) The results will be the same regardless of the time of day that the sample is taken. 3. The following numbers appear in a table of random digits: 30683 5027938224 09844 13578 2625112708 24604 {A scientist will be measuring the total amount of woody debris in a random sample (n = 5) of sites selected without replacement ftom a population of 45 sites, The sites are labeled 01, 02,... , 45 ‘and she starts at the beginning of the line of random digits and takes consceutive pairs of digits. Which of the following is correct? (@ Her sample is 38, 25, 02, 38, 22 (b) Her sample is 38, 68, 35, 02, 22 (©) Her sample is 38, 35, 27, 28, 08 (@) Her sample is 38, 65, 35, 02, 79 (©) Her sample is 38, 35, 02, 22, 40 4, A committee on community relations in a college town plans to survey local businesses about the importance of students as customers, From telephone book listings, the committee chooses 150 businesses at random. Of these, 73 return the questionnaire mailed by the committee. The population for this study is (a) all businesses in the college town. (b) all businesses. (6) the 150 businesses chosen. (@) the 73 businesses that returned the questionnaire, (©) the committee on community relations. Chapter 5 ' ‘Test SD5. A new headache remedy was given to a group of 25 subjects who had headaches. Four hours after taking the new remedy, 20 of the subjects reported that their headaches had disappeared, From this ( information you conclude (a) that the remedy is effective for the treatment of headaches. (b) nothing, because the sample sizo is too small. (©) nothing, because there is no control group for comparison, (@ that the new treatment is better than aspirin, (©) that the remedy is not effective for the treatment of headaches, 6. An experimenter wishes to test whether or not two types of fish food (a standard fish food and a new product) work equally well at producing fish of equal weight after a 2-month feeding program. ‘The experimenter has 2 identical fish tanks (I and 2) to put fish in and is considering how to assign the 40 tagged fish to the tanks. To properly assign the fish, one step would be to (a) put all the odd tagged numbered fish in one tank, the even in the other, and give the standard food type to the odd numbered ones. (®) obtain pairs of fish whose weights are virtually equal at the start of the experiment and randomly assign one to tank 1 and the other to tank 2, with the feed assigned at random to the tanks, (c) proceed as in (b), but put the heavier of the pair into tank 2. (@) assign the fish at random to the two tanks and give the standard feed to tank I. {@) not proceed as in (b) because using the initial weight in (b) is a nonrandom process, Use the initial length of the fish instead, 71. A student wishes to examine the effect of wing width and wing length on the length of flight of a paper airplane, There are 4 different models of airplanes. Which of the following is NOT correct? (a) A factor (such as wing width) is an explanatory variable under control of the experimenter. (b) The order of flights was randomized to remove the influence of any other variables upon the ‘light distance of each flight. (©) It would be better to make four copies of each model of plane to give some feel for the plane- to-plane variations. (@ Flying each model four times would give information about the variation in flight length for each model, (@) Planned experiments (where randomization can take place) provide some of the strongest evidence in trying to establish a causal relationship. 8, An experiment was conducted where you flew paper airplanes after modifying wing width and ‘wing length. There were four different models of airplane. One design consideration was the choice between flying each plane four times or making four copies of each model, each of which is flown once. Which of the following is NOT correct? (@ Flying multiple copies of each model (that is, separate planes of each model) could give information on variability in flight due to fabrication effects (that is, how you made the plane). (b) Flying a single copy of each model four times could give information on variability in Aight due to changes in initial launch conditions. (© The differences in flight length among the different models give information on the “effects” of the design factors: wing width and wing length. (A The response variable is flight length; the explanatory variables are wing width and wing lenght. { (©) The net effect, whether flying each plane four times or flying four copies of each model once, ‘would be the same, Chapter 5 2 ‘Tost SDPart 2: Free Response “Answer completely, but be concise. Write sequentially and show all steps. 9. Do you trust the Internet? You want to ask a sample of college students the question “How much do you trust information about health that you find on the Internet—a great deal, somewhat, not much, or not at all?” You try out this and other questions on a pilot group of 10 students chosen from your class, ‘The class members are Anderson Deng Glaus ‘Arroyo De Ramos —_“Helling Batista Drasin Husain Bell Eckstein Johnson Burke Femandez Kim Cabrera Fuller Molina Calloway Garcia Morgan Delluct Gandhi Murphy Neguyen Palmicro Pescival Prince Pari Richards Rider Rodriguez Samuels Shen Tse Velasco Wallace Washburn Zabidi Zhao Choose an SRS of 10 students, Use Table B, shown below, beginning at line 117. Explain your method clearly, 117 38167 98532 62183 70632 23417 118 73190 32533 04470 29669 84407 119 95857 07118 67664 92099 58806 120 35476 55972 39421 65850 04266 26185 90785 66979 35435 4144g 65956 9e624 43742 75532 86382 34826 11937 10. Canada requires that cars be equipped with “daytime running lights,” headlights that automatically ‘come on at a low level when the car is started. Many manufacturers are now equipping cars sold in the United States with running lights. Will running lights reduce accidents by making cars more visible? (a) Describe the design of an experiment to help answer this question, In particular, what response variables will you examine? (b) What cautions do you see that might apply to an experiment on the effects of running lights? Chapter 5 3 Test SD11, Does ginkgo improve memory? The law allows marketers of herbs and other natural substances to make health claims that are not supported by evidence, Brands of ginkgo extract claim to “improve memory and concentration.” A randomized comparative experiment found no evidence for such effects. ‘The subjects were 230 healthy people over 60 years old. They were randomly assigned to ginkgo or a placebo pill (a dummy pill that looks and tastes the same). All the subjects took a battery of tests for learning and memory before treatment started and again after six weeks, (@ What are the explanatory and response variables in this experiment? (b) Outline the design of this experiment, (©) The study was double-blind, What does this mean? (@) Use Table B, starting at Line 103 (below), and choose only the first 5 members of the ginkgo group. 103, 45467 71709 7558 00095 32863 29485 82226 © 90056. 104 52711 38889 9307460227 40011 asa4s «48767 52573, 105 95592 94007 69971 92481 6077953791 17297 59335, 106 68417 3501315529 72765 95089, 57067 S0211 47487 pledge that I have neither given nor received aid on this test Chapter 5 4 ‘Test SDTest 6C AP Statistics Name: Directions: Work on these sheets. Part 1: Multiple Choice. Circle the letter corresponding to the best answer. 1. An assignment of probabilities must obey which of the following? (a) The probability of any event must be a number between 0 and 1, inelusive. (6) The sum of the probabilities ofall outcomes in the sample space must be exactly 1. (6) The probability of an event is the sum of the outcomes in the sample space that make up the event, (@) Allof the above. (©) Only (a) and (b) are true. 2, Event A occurs with probability 0.2, Bvent B occurs with probability 0.8. If A and B are disjoint (mutually exelusive), then (a) P(A and B) = 0.16. (b) P(A or B)= 1.0. (©) P(A and B) = 1.0. (@) P(A or B)= 0.16. (©) both (@) and (b) are true. 3, A fair coin is tossed four times, and each time the coin lands heads up. If the coin is then tossed 1996 more times, how many heads are most likely to appear for these 1996 additional tosses? (@ 996 (b) 998 (© 1000 @ 1996 (©) None of the above. The answer is 4. A die is loaded so that the number 6 comes up three times as often as any other number. What is the probability of rolling a 1 or a6? @) 13 () 1/4 © 12 @ 28 (@) None of the above. The answer is Questions 5 and 6 relate to the following: In a particular game, a fait die is tossed, Ifthe number of spots showing is either four or five, you win $1. Ifthe number of spots showing is six, you win $4. ‘And if the number of spots showing is one, two, or three, you win nothing. You are going to play the game twice, 5, The probability that you win $4 both times is (a) 6. (b) 13. ©) 1136. @ 14. © 112, Chapters 1 Test6c6. ‘The probability that you win at least $1 both times is @ 12. () 436, © 186. @ 14, © 34. Questions 7 and 8 relate to the following: An event A will occur with probability 0.5, An event B will ‘occur with probability 0.6. The probability that both A and B will occur is 0.1. 7. The conditional probability of A, given B (@) is0.5. (b) is 0.3. () is0.2. (@) is 6. (©) cannot be determined from the information given, 8. We may conclude that (a) events A and B are independent, (b) events A and B are disjoint. (©) either A or B always occurs, (@) events A and B are complementary, (©) none of the above is correct. 9, Experience has shown that a certain lie detector will show a positive reading (indicates a lic) 10% of the time when a person is telling the truth and 95% of the time when a person is lying. Suppose that a random sample of $ suspects is subjected to a lie detector test regarding a recent one-person crime. Then the probability of observing no positive reading if all suspects plead innocent and are telling the truth is (@) 0.409. (b) 0.735. © 0.00001. @) 0.591, (©) 0.99999, 10. If you buy one ticket in the Provincial Lottery, then the probability that you will win a prize is 0.11. If you buy one ticket each month for five months, what is the probability that you will win at least ‘one prize? (@) 0.55 (b) 0.50 (©) 0.44 @) 045 © 056 Chepter 6 2 Test 6CPart 2: Free Response “Answer completely, but be concise, Write sequentially and show all steps. 11. Many fire stations handle emergency calls for medical assistance as well es those requesting firefighting equipment. A particular station says that the probability that an incoming call is for medical assistance is 0.85, This can be expressed as P(call is for medical assistance) = 0.85. (a) Give a relative frequency interpretation of the given problem. (b) What is the probability that a call is not for medical assistance? (© Assuming that successive calls are independent of one another, calculate the probability that ‘two successive calls will both be for medical assistance. (@ Still assuming independence, calculate the probability that for two successive calls, the first is for medical assistance and the second is not for medical assistance, (@) Still assuming independence, calculate the probability that exactly one of the next two calls will be for medical assistance, (© Do you think that it is reasonable to assume that the requests made in successive calls are independent? Explain briefly. 12, Approximately 30% of the calls to an airline reservation phone line result in a reservation being made, (@) Suppose that an operator handles 10 calls. What is the probability that none of the 10 results in a reservation? (b) What assumptions did you make in order to calculate the probability in (a)? (©) What is the probability that at least one call results in a reservation being made? Chapter 6 3 Test 6c13, May has applied to both Harvard and the University of Florida. She thinks the probability that Harvard will admit her is 0.4, the probability that Florida will admit her is 0.5, and the probability that both will admit her is 0.2. (2) Make a Venn diagram with the probabilities given marked, (b) What is the probability that neither university admits May? (©) What is the probability that she gets into Florida but not Harvard? 14, Heart disease is the number 1 killer today. Suppose that 8% of the patients in a small town are known to have heart disease, And suppose that a testis available that is positive in 96% of the patients with heart disease, but is also positive in 7% of patients who do not have heart disease: If a person is selected at random and given the test and it comes out positive, what is the probability that the person actually has heart disease? pledge that Ihave nelther given nor recelved ald on this test: Chapter 6 4 Test 6c