MAY/JUNE 2010 Yuli Lyman

Inside This Issue Coldwell Banker

Los Altos, CA 94022
> NEW STATE TAX CREDIT .................... 1 (650) 331-0168
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2 [email protected]
http://www.MyHomeGuide.net
> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2 DRE #01121833
> PENDING HOME SALES AT FIVE-MONTH
HIGH ...................................................... 3
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3
> CHART: SALES, PENDING & DOI ......... 4

The Real Estate

local market trends
Report Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
Apr 10 Mar 10 Apr 09
SAN MATEO COUNTY Median Price: $ 765,000 $ 800,000 $ 610,000
Av erage Price: $ 931,715 $ 992,399 $ 847,017
Home Sales: 323 304 293
Median Price Up Year-over-Year Inv entory : 1,930 1,697 1,745
Sale/List Price Ratio: 99.4% 99.5% 98.2%
The median price for single-family, re-sale homes NEW STATE TAX CREDIT Day s on Market: 45 43 65
was up 25.4% year-over-year in April, although it Just a reminder that the new state tax credit is not Day s of Inv entory : 111 103 133
was down 4.4% compared to March. limitless, as was the Federal tax credit. The state
The sales price to list price ratio, a good indicator tax credit is limited to $200,000,000 and is first-
come, first-served. closes on or after May 1, 2010. Taxpayers may not
of demand, for single-family, re-sale homes in San request a New Home Credit reservation if they
Mateo County was 99.4% in April. It went goes into effect on May 1, 2010 for first-time have entered into the contract before May 1, 2010.
Home sales were up 6.3% from March, and up home buyers and buyers of new, never-occupied
homes. The state has allocated a total of These tax credits are limited to the lesser of 5% of
10.2% year-over-year. the purchase price or $10,000. The tax credit must
$200,000,000 to be split evenly between both
Pending sales reached levels not seen since the groups. be applied over three years in amounts beginning
Spring of 2003. This bodes well for sales in the in the year the home was purchased.
next few months. The tax credit applies taxpayers who purchase a
qualified principal residence on or after May 1, In any event, please do not construe this as legal
Inventory also increased in April from March: up 2010, and before January 1, 2011. Additionally, or financial advice. Please contact your lawyer or
13.7%, and it was up 10.6% compared to April these tax credits are available for taxpayers who financial advisor if you intend to use the credit.
2009. This is the first time inventory has been purchase a qualified principal residence on or after For full information, go to:
higher than the year before since December 2008. December 31, 2010, and before August 1, 2011, http://www.ftb.ca.gov/individuals/New_Home_Credit.shtml
Seems like home owners are beginning to feel pursuant to an enforceable contract executed on or
more confident in the market. before December 31, 2010. The purchase date is Remember, the real estate market is a matter of
Of the 760 homes put on the market in April, only defined as the date escrow closes. Taxpayers may neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same.
61 were bank-owned. apply for the tax credits if they have entered into a For complete information on a particular neighbor-
contract before May 1, 2010, as long as escrow hood or property, call me.

San Mateo County Homes: Sales Price/Listing Price Ratio HOW TO READ THE CHART
102% The blue area is the number of days it would take
to sell all the homes for sale at the current rate of
101% sales.
100%
The green line shows the number of homes in
99% escrow. Normally, this line tracks closely with the
98%
red line, which shows actual sales.

97% As you can see, the two lines have diverged over
the past year. This is due to many homes being
96% put into escrow as short-sales, contingent upon
95% the banks’ approval. This is being done even be-
0 FMAMJ J A SOND 0 FMAMJ J A SOND 0 FMAMJ J A SOND 0 FMAMJ J A SOND 1 FMA fore the banks know about the short sale. Subse-
6 7 8 9 0 quently, many of these escrows do not close.
© 2010 rereport.com
 The Real Estate Report

Mortgage Rate Outlook

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Apr. 30, 2010 -- The last of the extraordinary props for the 5.36%. The FRMI includes rates for conforming, jumbo
Rates nation's mortgage and home sales markets have come and the GSE's "high-limit" conforming products in its
to an end. Just four weeks after the Federal Reserve calculation and so covers a wide swath of the market.
stepped away from the mortgage market comes the end The most popular alternative to the traditional fixed-rate
01-10 of first-time and trade-up homebuyer tax credits. Mean- mortgage -- a Hybrid 5/1 ARM -- sported an average
10-09 while, the effort to prop up failing homeowners though interest rate of 4.41% this week, down just a single
07-09
04-09 modification and other initiatives enjoys a continuing basis point from last week's 4.42%.
01-09 commitment.
With the removal of a program said to spur demand, we
10-08
07-08 While the Fed program of buying up $1.25 trillion of wonder what the rest of the "spring homebuying sea-
04-08 Mortgage-Backed Securities was easily the more impor- son" will look like. It is fair to say that the original tax
01-08 tant of the two -- after all, both homebuyers and home- credit which expired in November 2009 borrowed some
10-07 owners can enjoy low mortgage rates -- but the tax demand from the winter months of 2010, but all appear-
07-07
04-07 credit has arguably been a key element in fostering ances are that demand was starting to ramp up in
01-07 demand for home purchases, and spurring consumers March and probably in April. If it turns out that today's
10-06 to act. We won't know the actual results of the program midnight expiry of the extension borrowed demand from
07-06 for some time, until all tax filings for 2009 as well as for May and June, we could be in for a couple of very slow
04-06 months. Slowing sales coupled with short-sale or fore-
01-06
2010 have been completed, but the home-sale indica-
10-05 tors seem to suggest that there has been positive, closure-boosted inventories are unwelcome news for
07-05 measurable effect on weak housing markets. home prices, which would be pressured downward
04-05 again. That situation would be worsened considerably
01-05 Mortgage rates have remained low since the Fed exited by any rise in mortgage rates, the likelihood of which
10-04 the stage, and have trended lower over the last couple increases with every sign of recovery. All things consid-
07-04 of weeks as Greece's (and perhaps Spain's) economic
04-04 ered, It's hard to find much reason for strong optimism
01-04 issues have produced a run into the safe-haven invest- about the period just ahead for home sales, and even a
ment of US-backed debt. spurt of new hiring won't improve these fortunes very
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
HSH's market-spanning Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator soon.
(FRMI) remained unchanged this week at an average
The chart above shows the National
monthly average for 30-year fixed
rate mortgages as compiled by
HSH.com.

San Mateo County - April 2010

Single-Family Homes % Change from Year Before
Prices Prices
Cities Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend2 Inven
County $ 765,000 $ 931,715 323 692 1,930 111 99.4% 25.4% 10.0% 10.2% 72.6% 10.6%
Atherton $ 3,507,500 $ 3,715,550 4 6 50 319 97.5% 14.6% 16.8% -20.0% 100.0% -13.8%
Belmont $ 967,500 $ 1,012,990 12 42 81 94 98.2% 26.1% 28.7% 0.0% 82.6% 6.6%
Burlingame $ 1,329,000 $ 1,391,050 18 25 89 103 96.8% 44.9% 18.6% 50.0% 31.6% 25.4%
Daly City $ 534,000 $ 535,816 32 77 147 63 103.9% 9.0% 12.8% -3.0% 71.1% 23.5%
El Granada $ 672,500 $ 740,833 3 12 36 232 96.5% 28.7% 41.8% 50.0% 500.0% -7.7%
East Palo Alto $ 230,000 $ 244,393 21 49 79 41 98.2% -9.1% -3.6% 90.9% 75.0% -16.0%
Foster City $ 1,100,000 $ 1,085,710 7 12 37 104 100.9% 25.7% 16.2% 16.7% 9.1% -21.3%
Hillsborough $ 2,525,000 $ 3,020,000 10 11 83 209 95.6% -4.0% -1.5% 100.0% 266.7% 16.9%
Half Moon Bay $ 690,000 $ 710,154 13 9 75 147 94.8% 6.2% 8.6% 225.0% -18.2% -13.8%
Millbrae $ 900,000 $ 908,944 9 16 43 87 96.1% 5.9% 5.0% -18.2% 166.7% 43.3%
Menlo Park $ 1,214,000 $ 1,180,960 22 56 153 128 99.8% 17.9% -17.5% -8.3% 75.0% 10.9%
Montara $ - $ - 0 0 0 0 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Moss Beach $ 670,000 $ 670,000 1 2 19 493 97.2% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Pacifica $ 645,000 $ 694,667 21 38 108 97 97.9% 31.2% 36.5% 16.7% 72.7% 24.1%
Portola Valley $ 1,480,000 $ 1,559,000 5 9 38 168 101.2% 5.2% -1.2% -37.5% 200.0% 26.7%
Redw ood City $ 755,000 $ 829,114 37 83 225 111 100.8% 17.1% 21.1% 2.8% 93.0% 8.2%
Redw ood Shores $ 1,038,000 $ 1,005,930 7 10 20 41 97.8% 4.0% -2.4% 133.3% 150.0% 11.1%
San Bruno $ 542,000 $ 554,375 12 37 83 111 98.0% -4.9% 1.0% -20.0% 32.1% 31.7%
San Carlos $ 971,000 $ 973,875 20 31 91 87 100.9% 3.6% 5.8% 0.0% 82.4% 9.6%
San Mateo $ 860,000 $ 931,554 39 102 235 99 98.8% 42.1% 31.6% 18.2% 148.8% 25.0%
S. San Francisco $ 521,000 $ 538,195 21 47 111 88 102.8% 4.2% 0.7% -32.3% 4.4% -6.7%
Page 2 Woodside $ 945,000 $ 1,369,000 5 10 58 278 98.1% -28.6% -21.0% 66.7% 150.0% 9.4%
 San Mateo County Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Price Change
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0% 0 F M A M J J A S ON D 0 F M A M J J A S ON D 0 F M A M J J A S ON D 0 F M A M J J A S ON D 1 F M A
-20.0% 6 7 8 9 0
-30.0%
-40.0%
-50.0%

PENDING HOME SALES AT FIVE-MONTH HIGH Table Definitions

Washington, May 04, 2010 -- Pending home sales increased measurably lower sales,” he said. “Later in the second _______________
again in March, affirming that a surge of home sales is half of the year, and into 2011, home sales will likely
unfolding for the spring home buying season, according become self-sustaining if the economy can add jobs at
to the National Association of Realtors®. a respectable pace, and from a return of buyer demand Median Price
as they see home values stabilizing.” The price at which 50% of
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking
indicator based on contracts signed in March, rose 5.3 The PHSI in the Northeast declined 3.3 percent to 75.1 prices were higher and 50%
percent to 102.9 from 97.7 in February, and is 21.1 in March but remains 27.2 percent higher than March were lower.
percent above March 2009 when it was 85.0; this 2009. In the Midwest the index increased 1.2 percent to
follows an 8.3 percent increase in February. The data 98.9 and is 18.5 percent above a year ago. Pending Average Price
reflects contracts and not closings, which usually occur home sales in the South jumped 12.7 percent to an Add all prices and divide by
with a lag time of one or two months. index of 121.2, which is 28.3 percent higher than March the number of sales.
2009. In the West the index rose 1.9 percent to 99.9
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said favorable
and is 8.8 percent above a year ago.
affordability conditions have been working with the tax SP/LP
credit. “Clearly the home buyer tax credit has helped “Another encouraging sign is the improvement in the Sales price to list price
stabilize the market. In the months immediately availability for jumbo and second-home mortgages,” ratio or the price paid for
following the expiration of the tax credit, we expect (Continued on page 4) the property divided by the
asking price.

DOI
San Mateo County Condos- Prices & Sales Days of Inventory, or how
(3-month moving average—prices in $000's) many days it would take to
$700 200 sell all the property for sale
at the current rate of sales.
Median & Average Prices

180
$600 160
Condo Sales

140
$500
120
Pend
$400 100 Property under contract
80 to sell that hasn’t closed
$300 60 escrow.
$200 40
20
$100 0 Inven
0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND1 FMA Number of properties
6 7 8 9 0 actively for sale as of the
last day of the month.
San Mateo County - April 2010
Condos/Townhomes % Change from Year Before
Prices Prices
Cities Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend2 Inven
County $ 457,500 $ 498,659 78 283 671 144 99.0% 18.8% 16.8% 27.9% 148.2% 27.1%
Burlingame $ 490,000 $ 484,000 5 9 41 186 95.2% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Daly City $ 367,000 $ 336,688 8 27 50 83 102.4% 19.3% 10.0% 33.3% 145.5% 92.3%
Foster City $ 722,500 $ 677,125 8 30 59 105 101.5% 31.4% 14.5% 60.0% 150.0% -20.3%
Menlo Park $ 915,000 $ 865,750 8 10 42 116 98.1% 52.5% 18.1% 33.3% 150.0% -12.5%
Redw ood City $ 265,000 $ 265,000 1 6 25 551 101.9% -14.0% -14.0% -50.0% -25.0% 0.0%
Redw ood Shores $ 550,000 $ 635,714 7 16 44 116 98.5% -14.5% -1.1% 250.0% 60.0% 46.7%
San Bruno $ 215,000 $ 236,000 7 31 52 87 99.8% 7.5% 1.5% 0.0% 82.4% 67.7%
San Carlos $ 495,000 $ 556,143 7 16 41 104 99.1% -3.9% 15.8% 75.0% 100.0% 20.6%
San Mateo $ 370,000 $ 419,793 15 60 164 201 97.8% -14.0% -9.5% 15.4% 275.0% 42.6%
S. San Francisco $ 315,750 $ 346,125 4 36 55 138 101.9% -1.9% 10.8% -55.6% 111.8% 27.9% Page 3
The Real Estate Report
San Mateo County
Yuli Lyman
Coldwell Banker
Los Altos, CA 94022
(650) 331-0168
[email protected]
http://www.MyHomeGuide.net

This is not intended as a solicitation if your home is currently listed.

San Mateo County Homes - Sales, Pending & Days of Inventory

(3-month moving average)
700 Peak of buyers Market 250
600

Days of Inventory
200
Sales & Pending

500
400 150

300 100
200
50
100
0 0
0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND1 FMA
6 7 8 9 0

(Continued from page 3) sector, based on pending sales of sales. In developing the model for An index of 100 is equal to the
existing homes. A sale is listed as the index, it was demonstrated that average level of contract activity
Yun said. “As bank balance sheets pending when the contract has the level of monthly sales-contract during 2001, which was the first
strengthen, it is just a matter of been signed but the transaction activity parallels the level of closed year to be examined as well as the
time before lending of non- has not closed, though the sale existing-home sales in the first of five consecutive record
government-backed mortgages usually is finalized within one or following two months. There is a years for existing-home sales.
steadily opens up.” two months of signing. closer relationship between annual
First quarter metropolitan area
index changes (from the same
### The index is based on a large home prices and state home sales
month a year earlier) and year-ago
national sample, typically will be released May 11. Existing-
*The Pending Home Sales Index is changes in sales performance than
representing about 20 percent of home sales for April will be
a leading indicator for the housing with month-to-month comparisons.
transactions for existing-home reported May 24 and the next
This Real Estate Report is published and copyrighted by Information Designs. Information contained herein is deemed accurate and correct, but no warranty is implied