Conversion
month
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
New
customers
80
88
105
110
115
128
137
151
161
168
80
88
105
110
115
128
137
151
161
Jan-13
78
Feb-13
75
88
Mar-13
72
86
103
78
163
261
0
97.50%
100.00%
98.10%
97.27%
99.13%
100.00%
99.27%
98.68%
98.14%
1
93.75%
97.73%
98.10%
96.36%
97.39%
95.31%
94.16%
96.03%
95.65%
# of retained customers in month
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
70
69
67
82
78
77
103
98
94
107
106
102
114
112
128
362
465
580
% of retained customers in lifetime month
2
3
4
5
90.00%
87.50%
86.25%
83.75%
93.18%
88.64%
87.50%
86.36%
93.33%
89.52%
87.62%
85.71%
92.73%
90.00%
88.18%
83.64%
91.30%
85.22%
84.35%
83.48%
92.97%
89.84%
85.94%
89.05%
86.13%
89.40%
Jul-13
66
76
92
99
105
122
136
Aug-13
66
73
90
97
98
119
129
149
Sep-13
65
72
86
92
97
115
122
145
158
696
821
952
6
82.50%
82.95%
81.90%
81.82%
7
82.50%
81.82%
78.10%
8
81.25%
79.55%
A1
Oct-13
64
70
82
90
96
110
118
135
154
167
1,086
B1
9
80.00%
Customer lifetime estimates
Jan/ 13
Cohort
Lifetime month
0
Retained customers
Lost customers
Lifetime months of the lost customers
Total (months)
Average customer lifetime (months)
Average customer lifetime (years)
MRR
Total
Average customer LTV
Feb/ 13
Cohort
78
2627
32.84
2.74
$7,650
$265,361
$3,317
Lifetime month
0
Retained customers
Lost customers
Lifetime months of the lost customers
Total (months)
Average customer lifetime (months)
Average customer lifetime (years)
MRR
Total
Average customer LTV
Mrz/ 13
Cohort
88
2527
28.72
2.39
$7,988
$245,650
$2,791
Lifetime month
0
Retained customers
Lost customers
Lifetime months of the lost customers
Total (months)
Average customer lifetime (months)
Average customer lifetime (years)
103
2776
26.44
2.20
MRR
$9,145
Total
$329,865
Average customer LTV
Apr/ 13
Cohort
$3,142
Lifetime month
0
Retained customers
Lost customers
Lifetime months of the lost customers
Total (months)
Average customer lifetime (months)
Average customer lifetime (years)
MRR
Total
Average customer LTV
Mai/ 13
Cohort
107
3013
27.39
2.28
$9,988
$498,434
$4,531
Lifetime month
0
Retained customers
Lost customers
Lifetime months of the lost customers
Total (months)
Average customer lifetime (months)
Average customer lifetime (years)
MRR
Total
Average customer LTV
Jun/ 13
Cohort
114
2732
23.76
1.98
$11,678
$843,957
$7,339
Lifetime month
0
Retained customers
Lost customers
Lifetime months of the lost customers
Total (months)
Average customer lifetime (months)
Average customer lifetime (years)
MRR
128
3107
24.27
2.02
$12,876
Total
Average customer LTV
Jul/ 13
Cohort
$783,078
$6,118
Lifetime month
0
Retained customers
Lost customers
Lifetime months of the lost customers
Total (months)
Average customer lifetime (months)
Average customer lifetime (years)
MRR
Total
Average customer LTV
136
2777
20.27
1.69
$12,987
$1,901,643
$13,881
ime month
1
75
3
3
72
3
6
70
2
6
69
1
4
67
2
10
66
1
6
66
0
0
$7,536
$7,234
$6,982
$6,876
$6,780
$6,678
$6,567
86
2
2
82
4
8
78
4
12
77
1
4
76
1
5
73
3
18
72
1
7
$7,688
$7,232
$6,998
$6,890
$6,789
$6,679
$6,589
103
0
0
98
5
10
94
4
12
92
2
8
90
2
10
86
4
24
82
4
28
$8,897
$8,678
$8,569
$8,432
$8,352
$8,152
$7,988
ime month
ime month
ime month
1
106
1
1
102
4
8
99
3
9
97
2
8
92
5
25
90
2
12
87
3
21
$9,657
$9,222
$8,901
$9,201
$9,468
$9,688
$9,218
112
2
2
105
7
14
98
7
21
97
1
4
96
1
5
90
6
36
87
3
21
$11,546
$11,321
$11,678
$11,755
$11,868
$11,890
$11,985
122
6
6
119
3
6
115
4
12
110
5
20
106
4
20
102
4
24
98
4
28
$12,546
$12,433
$12,399
$12,976
$12,662
$12,671
$12,680
ime month
ime month
ime month
1
129
7
7
122
7
14
118
4
12
112
6
24
107
5
25
102
5
30
97
5
35
$12,756
$13,345
$13,456
$13,849
$14,275
$14,752
$15,276
10
11
12
59
60
65
1
8
64
1
9
62
2
20
60
2
22
59
1
12
22
1
59
22
0
1320
$6,454
$6,342
$6,157
$6,032
$5,909
$2,241
$2,195
10
11
12
59
60
70
2
16
67
3
27
65
2
20
64
1
11
62
2
24
16
0
0
15
1
960
$6,459
$6,193
$6,040
$5,890
$5,745
$1,771
$1,727
10
11
12
59
60
80
2
16
78
2
18
75
3
30
73
2
22
70
3
36
15
0
0
14
1
900
$7,715
$7,653
$7,507
$7,364
$7,224
$2,925
$2,869
10
11
12
59
60
85
2
16
82
3
27
80
2
20
77
3
33
75
2
24
18
0
0
17
1
1080
$9,149
$9,128
$9,078
$9,028
$8,979
$6,933
$6,895
10
11
12
59
60
84
3
24
81
3
27
78
3
30
75
3
33
72
3
36
12
0
0
12
0
720
$12,085
$12,115
$12,189
$12,263
$12,337
$16,396
$16,496
10
11
12
59
60
95
3
24
91
4
36
88
3
30
85
3
33
81
4
48
14
1
59
13
1
840
$12,689
$12,692
$12,699
$12,706
$12,713
$13,039
$13,046
10
11
12
59
60
93
4
32
89
4
36
85
4
40
81
4
44
77
4
48
9
0
0
8
1
540
$15,843
$16,020
$16,451
$16,895
$17,350
$60,552
$62,183
Notes
1) It is assumed that no customer stays longer than 60 months. You might increase this
interval, but generally speaking, making predictions more than 5 years into the future is very
speculative.
2) To keep it simple, no discount rate is applied to future revenues.
3) All violet values are estimates.
4) Future churn is estimated by extrapolating from the cohort's historic churn rate. The same
goes for the MRR development.
5) For older cohorts, the forecasting reliability is (obviously) better than for younger ones.
For very young cohorts, forecasting lifetime value based on the cohort's first few lifetime
months doesn't make sense, that's why I haven't included the August and September
cohorts below. However, you can forecast those cohorts' lifetime by taking older cohorts'
data as a proxy (not done here).
Disclaimer: Please be aware that his model may be inaccurate, incorrect or misleading, use
it at your own risk, yada yada yada.
Feel free to distribute. If you distribute a modified version, please make it clear that you've
made changes.
If you have any questions or comments:
[email protected]
Created by Christoph Janz
at Point Nine Capital
