The heart has its reasons of which reason knows nothing
Blaise Pascal
Gut Feelings:
Short Cuts To Better Decision Making
Gerd Gigerenzer
Max Planck Institute for Human Development
Berlin
An intuition is a judgment
(i) that appears quickly in consciousness,
(ii) whose underlying process we are not fully aware of, yet
(iii) is strong enough to act upon.
She works by intuition and feeling... If she abandons her
natural naivet and takes up the burden of guiding and
accounting for her life by consciousness, she is likely to
lose more than she gains, according to the old saw that
she who deliberates is lost.
Stanley Hall, 1904
April 8, 1779
If you doubt, set down all the Reasons, pro and con, in opposite Columns on
a Sheet of Paper, and when you have considered them two or three Days,
perform an Operation similar to that in some questions of Algebra; observe
what Reasons or Motives in each Column are equal in weight, one to one,
one to two, two to three, or the like, and when you have struck out from both
Sides all the Equalities, you will see in which column remains the Balance.
[]
This kind of Moral Algebra I have often practiced in important and dubious
Concerns, and tho it cannot be mathematically exact, I have found it
extreamly useful. By the way, if you do not learn it, I apprehend you will
never be married.
I am ever your affectionate Uncle,
B. FRANKLIN
What Is the Process Underlying Intuition?
Gods voice; mysterious and inexplicable
Biases due to cognitive limitations
Optimal weighting of all reasons
Fast and frugal heuristics
Intuitions in Sports
When a man throws a ball high in the air and catches it again,
he behaves as if he had solved a set of differential equations in
predicting the trajectory of the ball... At some subconscious
level, something functionally equivalent to the mathematical
calculation is going on.
Richard Dawkins, The Selfish Gene
Gaze heuristic
Gaze heuristic
Gaze heuristic
Gaze heuristic
Gaze Heuristic
How to intercept a potential pray or mate?
bats, birds, dragonflies, hoverflies, teleost fish, houseflies
How to avoid collisions?
sailors, aircraft pilots
Where to run to catch a ball?
Shaffer et al., 2004, Psychological Science; McLeod et al., 2003, Nature
How to infer intention from gaze?
Baron-Cohen 1995; Blythe et al., 1999; in Gigerenzer et al., 1999,Simple Heuristics That Make us Smart
Intuitions About Investments
How to make investment decisions?
Optimal Asset Allocation Policy
Mean-Variance-Model
Harry Markowitz
Optimization or Heuristic?
Optimal Asset Allocation Policy
Mean-Variance-Model
1/N
Allocate your money equally
to each of N funds
Harry Markowitz
When Is Intuition Better Than Optimization?
1/N
Allocate your money equally
to each of N funds
Ecological rationality of 1/N:
1. Predictive uncertainty: large
2. N: large Harry Markowitz
3. Learning sample: small
DeMiguel, Garlappi & Uppal in press, Review of Financial Studies
Oktober 2007
1/N
How do parents divide investment between their children?
Hertwig et al., Psychological Bulletin 2002
How do children divide resources in the Ultimatum game?
Takezawa et al., J of Economic Psychology 2006
How do people allocate financial resources?
Hubermann & Jiang, Journal of Finance 2006
How to weight reasons to make good predictions?
Dawes Rule; see Hogarth & Karelaia, Psychological Review 2007
Intuitions About Customers
Correct Predictions (%) How to Distinguish Active from Inactive Customers?
Wbben & Wangenheim 2008 Journal of Marketing
Four Misconceptions
1. Heuristics produce second-best results; optimization is always better.
2. Intuition relies on heuristics only because of cognitive limitations.
3. People use heuristics only in routine decisions of little importance.
4. More information, time, and computation is always better.
Research Questions
What Are the Mechanisms of Intuition?
The Study of the Adaptive Toolbox
When Are Intuitions Successful?
The Study of Ecological Rationality
How to Design Intuitive Decision Systems?
Adaptive Design
Gigerenzer 2008. Gut Feelings: Short Cuts To Better Decision Making. Penguin
Gigerenzer 2008. Rationality for Mortals. OUP
I.
What Are the Mechanisms of Intuition?
Heuristics Underlying Intuition
1. Gaze heuristic
2. 1/N (Equality)
3. One-reason decision making
Take-the-best: Gigerenzer & Goldstein 1996 Psychological Review
Fast & frugal trees: Martignon, Katsikopoulos & Woike 2008, J of Mathematical Psychology
Priority heuristic: Brandsttter, Gigerenzer & Hertwig 2006 Psychological Review
4. Recognition
Recognition heuristic: Goldstein & Gigerenzer 2002 Psychological Review
Fluency heuristic: Schooler & Hertwig 2005 Psychological Review
5. Default heuristic
Johnson & Goldstein 2003 Science
6. Satisficing
Simon 1955 Quarterly J of Economics
7. Imitate the majority/successful
Boyd & Richerson 2005 The Origin and Evolution of Cultures
Gigerenzer 2008. Gut Feelings: Short Cuts To Better Decision Making. Penguin
II.
When Are Intuitions Successful?
Evidence
The results [of 45 studies] firmly demonstrate that noncompensatory
strategies were the dominant mode used by decision makers.
Compensatory strategies were typically used only when the number
of alternatives and dimensions were small.
Ford et al. 1989. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, p. 75
Evaluation
Lexicographic heuristics are
more widely adopted in practice than it deserves to be
naively simple and
will rarely pass a test of reasonableness.
Keeney & Raiffa 1993. Decisions with multiple objectives, p. 77-8
Two Heuristics
no trade-off trade-off
Take-the-best Tallying (1/N)
Search rule: Look up the cue with the Search rule: Look up a cue randomly.
highest validity
Stopping rule: If cue values differ Stopping rule: After m (1 < m M) cues,
(+/-), stop search. If not, look up stop search.
next cue.
Decision rule: Predict that the Decision rule: Predict that the alternative
alternative with the positive cue with the higher number of positive
value has the higher criterion cue values has the higher criterion
value. value.
dont add dont weight
Robust Inference with Cognitive Heuristics
75
70 Take-the-best
Accuracy Tallying (1/N)
(% correct) Multiple Regression
65 Minimalist
60
55
Czerlinski, Gigerenzer,
Fitting Prediction & Goldstein (1999)
Ecological Rationality of Heuristics
Take-the-best Tallying
noncompensatory compensatory
Weight
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5
Cue Cue
Martignon & Hoffrage (1999), In Gigerenzer et al., Simple heuristics that make us smart. Oxford University Press
Unconscious selection of heuristics
100
Choices predicted by Take The Best (%)
Noncompensatory
90
Feedback
80
70
60
50
40 Compensatory
30 Feedback
20
10
0
0-24 25-48 49-72 73-96 97-120 121-144 145-168
Feedback Trials
Rieskamp & Otto 2006 JEP:General
Which city has the higher population?
Cues: soccer team, university, state capital, intercity train line, exposition site
Predictive accuracy
etc
Sample size
Gigerenzer & Brighton 2009 topiCS
Professors Salaries
Cues: rank, gender, years in current rank, highest degree earned, years since
Predictive accuracy highest degree earned
Sample size
Brighton 2007
Rent per acre in Minnesota
Predictive accuracy Cues: density of diary cows, proportion of pasture land, etc
Sample size
Temperature in London 2000
More-Is-Better in Fitting
Less-Is-More in Prediction
Gut Feelings
1. Quick in consciousness; underlying process not in awareness; guides action.
2. Underlying process: Fast and frugal heuristics.
3. Heuristics can outperform optimization techniques, because they exploit
(i) evolved mental capacities and
(ii) environmental structures.
4. More time, information, and computation is not always better.
More
Gerd Gigerenzer
Gut Feelings: Short Cuts To Better Decision Making
Penguin 2008
