HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

17 November, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

MAJOR CURRENCY VIEW POINT
Prev.
Close Chg. % Chg. Rupee Continues Southward Journey Ahead of FCNR Redemption
Close
USDINR 67.950 67.743 0.207 0.31% The Indian rupee yesterday weakened for the fourth consecutive
DXY INDX 100.320 100.44 -0.120 -0.12% session to hit a fresh five- month low against the US dollar after the
EURUSD 1.070 1.070 0.000 0.00% country's trade deficit widened to a 10-month high ahead of FCNR
GBPUSD 1.242 1.242 0.000 -0.01% related outflow. The country is expected to around $13.5 billion
payment in coming two weeks. Beside foreign fund outflow the
USDJPY 109.060 109.67 -0.610 -0.56%
widening trade deficit also weigh on rupee weakness.
DG USDINR 68.106 68.101 0.005 0.01% FIIs have sold $441.40 million in debt and bought $6.2 billion in equity
till date this year.
GLOBAL INDICES India's trade deficit widened to $10.16 billion in October against $9.69
billion a year ago due to higher gold imports which jumped 108.4% to
Prev. $3.5 billion. Export grew 9.59% due to higher exports of gems &
Close Chg. % Chg. Jewellery, engineering goods and readymade garments. Imports
Close
expanded 8.11%.
SGX NIFTY 8127.0 8102.0 25 0.31%
The home currency closed at 67.95 a dollar-a level last seen on 28
NIFTY 8111.6 8108.5 3 0.04% June, down 0.31% from its previous close of 67.74. It opened at 67.71
SENSEX 26298.7 26304.6 -6 -0.02% against the US dollar and touched a low of 67.99--a level last seen on
HANG-SENG 22315.8 22280.5 35 0.16% 27 June.
NIKKEI 17870.3 17862.2 8 0.05% Bond yield fell in the sixth out of seven trading sessions and hit a fresh
seven-and-half year low. The benchmark 10-year government bond
SHANGHAI 3194.4 3205.1 -11 -0.33%
yield was trading at 6.445%-a level last seen on 21 May 2009,
S&P INDEX 2176.9 2180.4 -3 -0.16% compared to Tuesday's close of 6.534%.
DOW JONES 18868.1 18923.1 -55 -0.29% Technically, USDINR outlook remains bullish with higher side
NASDAQ 5294.6 5275.6 19 0.36% resistance at 68.20 and support 67.54.
FTSE 6749.7 6792.7 -43 -0.63%
Moodys maintain Indias Baa3 Rating with Positive Outlook
CAC 4501.1 4536.5 -35 -0.78%
Moodys retain countrys rating at Baa3 with Positive outlook amid
DAX 10663.9 10735.1 -71 -0.66% economic and institutional reforms, though the reform effort hasnt yet
achieved conditions that would support upgrade to Baa2. Agency still
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Provisional Rs. In Cr)
expects measures taken to date, along with further reforms, will
in time achieve the objectives and support to upgrade to Baa2. A
Segment 16-Nov-16 15-Nov-16 broad range of policies have been implemented that are conducive to
moderate inflation and limited current account deficits. In addition, a
Equity -2325.70 -1432.34 number of policy reforms, if effective, would lead to higher investment
Debt -2290.62 -1096.48 and more efficient savings. However, private investment has not yet
picked up in response to the governments measures.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Dollar Retreat From 14 Year High Ahead of Fed Chair Yellen Testimony
The dollar index reached 100.57, which was its highest since April 2003 before retreating to 100.42, up 0.2% yesterday. It has risen
3.5% over eight days, which would be the biggest such increase since May 2015
The dollar pares some losses against major rivals ahead of another flurry of economic reports and the testimony of Federal Reserve Chair
Janet Yellen before Congress today. Today, the dollar pared losses against the yen after BoJ announced special buying operation for
Japanese govt. bonds. It last down 0.2% against the yen at 108.87, versus a session high of 109.30 yen.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR NOV. FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations
The USDINR Nov. Future forms higher highs and lows on daily chart.
The pair sustained above long term moving averages indicating strength in the up trend.
MACD crossed MACD Average Upward near zero line indicating bullishness.
The pair would continue trading with bullish bias with higher side resistance at 68.26 and support 67.48.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Near Month Fut. Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View

USDINR 68.07 67.94 67.38 67.52 67.80 68.22 68.36 68.64 Long Unwinding
EURINR 72.88 72.86 72.36 72.52 72.70 73.04 73.20 73.38 Bearish
GBPINR 84.55 84.59 83.80 84.08 84.31 84.83 85.11 85.34 Bearish
JPYINR 62.09 62.12 61.59 61.77 61.93 62.27 62.46 62.62 Short Covering

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low

USDINR 67.25 66.34 67.99 66.34 68.79 66.05 67.20 66.88 66.79 66.97 67.10
EURINR 75.64 72.45 75.64 72.45 77.49 70.24 73.08 73.28 74.10 74.50 74.84
GBPINR 85.11 82.31 85.11 80.89 101.87 80.89 84.06 82.57 84.30 86.25 91.16
JPYINR 66.11 62.33 66.11 61.85 68.11 53.51 62.52 63.72 64.62 64.97 63.07

CURRENCY MOVEMENT

Open Chg. In
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Chg. in OI Volume
Interest Volume
SPOT USDINR 67.71 67.99 67.61 67.95 0.21 -- -- -- --
USDINR NOV. FUT. 67.81 68.08 67.66 68.07 0.30 2375387 738705 3060636 -1140873
SPOT EURINR 72.82 72.89 72.58 72.76 -0.22 -- -- -- --
EURINR NOV. FUT. 72.92 73.02 72.68 72.88 -0.17 27165 2313 53335 -1871
SPOT GBPINR 84.45 84.74 84.27 84.39 0.29 -- -- -- --
GBPINR NOV. FUT. 84.54 84.87 84.36 84.55 0.43 26870 -2300 50373 -30959
SPOT JPYINR 62.02 62.18 61.85 61.95 -0.62 -- -- -- --
JPYINR NOV. FUT. 62.30 62.30 61.96 62.09 -0.56 21024 1617 66873 19359

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

11/16/2016 15:00 UK Claimant Count Rate Oct 2.30% 2.30% 2.30%
11/16/2016 15:00 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Sep 4.90% 4.80% 4.90%
11/16/2016 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 11-Nov -- -9.20% -1.20%
11/16/2016 19:45 US Industrial Production MoM Oct 0.20% 0.00% -0.20%
11/16/2016 19:45 US Capacity Utilization Oct 75.50% 75.30% 75.40%
11/16/2016 19:45 US Manufacturing (SIC) Production Oct 0.30% 0.20% 0.20%

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
11/17/2016 15:30 EC Construction Output YoY Sep -- 0.90%
11/17/2016 15:30 EC CPI YoY Oct F 0.50% 0.40%
11/17/2016 19:00 US Housing Starts Oct 1160k 1047k
11/17/2016 19:00 US Building Permits Oct 1195k 1225k
11/17/2016 19:00 US CPI YoY Oct 1.60% 1.50%
11/17/2016 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 12-Nov 257k 254k
11/17/2016 19:00 US Continuing Claims 5-Nov 2030k 2041k

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani ([email protected])
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar([email protected])

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: [email protected]

Disclosure:

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