Rupture along a billion-year-old plate boundary in Botswana?

- Stephen Hicks | Seismologist

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Rupture along a billion-year-old plate boundary in Botswana? Tectonic

4/4/2017 49 Comments

Debates
Largest earthquake to hit Africa for 11 years
On Monday 4 April 2017 at 17:40 UTC, a magnitude 6.5 earthquake struck in central Botswana, Africa. The
rupture occurred at an approximate depth of 30 km (19 miles). Very strong shaking (Intensity 7) was felt close
to the epicentre and weak shaking (Intensity 3) was reported 500 km away in Johannesburg, South About
Africa. This earthquake is the largest to have struck mainland South Africa for over eleven years.
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Doublet
Map showing earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 and greater that have occurred in Southern Africa since detailed records
Earthquake
began (1900 onwards). Earthquake Early Warning
Earthquakes
Episodic Tremor And Slip
ETS
The largest earthquakes in southern Africa are concentrated in the
Japan
eastern countries of Tanzania, Malawi, and Mozambique, where the
Kaikoura
continent is slowly pulling apart (rifting) in an east-west orientation.
Mexico
This rifting forms the boundary between the Nubian and Somali plates
New Zealand
(part of the larger African plate) and results in normal faulting
Ocean Bottom
earthquakes. For example, the 2006 magnitude 7.0 Mozambique
Seismometer
earthquake, which caused several fatalities, was a normal faulting
Pacific Northwest
earthquake, which ruptured the southern end of the East African Rift.
Philippines
Science Communication
The April 2017 Botswana event is also classified as a normal faulting
Seismic Hazard
earthquake, yet its focal mechanism, which shows the orientation of
Slow Slip Events
extension, is approximately perpendicular to the East African rift.
Tsunami
Therefore, a different geological structure, which may somehow be
broadly related to the East African rift, may have been responsible for
this earthquake. RSS Feed
Top: Focal mechanism ('beach-ball')

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Rupture along a billion-year-old plate boundary in Botswana? - Stephen Hicks | Seismologist

for the Botswana earthquake

Earthquakes in Botswana are extremely rare. Given that this event indicating extension in anortheast-
has occurred over 1000 km from the nearest tectonic plate boundary, southwest direction. Bottom:
we call these types of events 'intraplate earthquakes'. It is likely that schematic block diagram showing
the rupture occurred partly due to the gradual transfer of push and sense of crustal movement during
pull stresses from the East African Rift toward the more stable part of normal faulting.
the continent. Occasionally, this stress is released along pre-existing
weaknesses in Earth's crust as earthquakes. It is fundamentally the
same reason why quakes occasionally occur in other stable regions
such as the United Kingdom and the midwestern states of North
America.

Recorded earthquakes in Botswana from the USGS catalogue

As with all earthquakes, there will

be some aftershocks of this
rupture. From the nearest real-
time seismometer station located
~270 km away from the epicentre,
smaller-sized aftershocks can be
clearly seen occurring in the
hours ensuing after the
mainshock.

Two aftershocks have been

recorded by Germany's GEOFON
monitoring system. One of these
aftershocks had a magnitude of
4.6; the other magnitude 4.1.

Based on Bath's aftershock law,

it is plausible to expect
aftershocks as large as
magnitude 5.4.

Possible complexity in the rupture

Early estimates of the earthquake's depth suggest that it occurred
deep within the continent (in the mid-lower crust). Therefore, there is

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Rupture along a billion-year-old plate boundary in Botswana? - Stephen Hicks | Seismologist

likely to be very little data available from possible surface ruptures.

When a large global earthquake occurs, the GEOSCOPE seismic

observatory, based at IPGP in Paris, automatically calculate rupture
'source-time functions'. These graphs show how the amount of
energy released by the earthquake changes during the rupture.
Multiple peaks in the rupture function
The GEOSCOPE solution (right) shows at least two distinct peaks in indicate multiple fault ruptures.
energy release, possibly indicating that the earthquake was Source: Geoscope / IPGP
(http://geoscope.ipgp.fr)
composed of multiple, distinct ruptures.

This complex source time function can also be seen from the rare
seismic waveforms from distant stations.

Displacement seismic waveforms

from a recording station in Armenia.
Some complexity within the first 10
seconds of rupture (circled) can be
seen.

Stresses from Eastern Africa?

The central and western areas of Southern Africa are assumed to be tectonically very stable. The geology of
the region is typically referred to as the 'Kaapvaal Craton'. Craton means a strong region of a continental
tectonic plate that are typically stable for over a billion years. The Kaapvaal Craton contains rocks that are 3.6
to 2.5 billion years old. Large earthquakes in such stable tectonic environments occur very rarely.

Comparing the location and mechanism of the Botswana earthquake with a regional geological map reveals
that the earthquake's epicentre may have occurred close to the boundary between Kaapvaal rocks and those
of the Limpopo Belt - a distinct group of metamorphosed rocks with a slightly younger age of ~1.8 billion years
old. This may simply just be a coincidence. Furthermore, given the lack of nearby seismic stations, this exact
location may be uncertain. Nevertheless, it is worth considering what implications such a relationship may
have.

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Rupture along a billion-year-old plate boundary in Botswana? - Stephen Hicks | Seismologist

2017 Botswana earthquake epicentre (red star) together with focal mechanism (blue beach ball) plotted on a regional
geological map from Brown et al. (2008). The red arrows indicate the direction of horizontal extension during the
earthquake.

Dr Eddie Dempsey is a geologist from the University of Durham; he specialises in analysing the structure of
rocks that have been deformed deep within the crust. He agrees that there may be an influence on the
stresses and resulting strains caused by rifting in East Africa. Stress may eventually be released along old but
relatively weak tectonic suture zones to form occasional quakes like the Botswana event. Such old cratonic
rocks, however, are typically very layered (high seismic anisotropy), which may complicate our analyses of
this quake using seismic waves.

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Rupture along a billion-year-old plate boundary in Botswana? - Stephen Hicks | Seismologist

Re-activation of an ancient tectonic boundary?

One research paper from the 1980s studied the nature of the geological contact between Kaapvaal and
Limpopo further to the east in South Africa. Based on small changes in gravity across the two groups of rocks,
the study interpreted that this geological contact demarcates an ancient (pre-Cambrian) plate boundary
between two colliding plates.

Is it therefore possible that the inherent weakness of this ancient, billion-year-old plate boundary ruptured
during the 2017 Botswana earthquake? Whilst the craton as a whole stands strong, discrete weak points
could still be exploited by shifting tectonic stresses. Yet our first estimates of the earthquake's location are
somewhat uncertain; therefore, much more research including on-the-ground field studies, as well as analysis
of satellite and geophysical data will be needed in the next few months to better answer this question.

What we do know though is that earthquakes caused by intraplate deformation will always be surprising to us;
they have the potential to produce very large and damaging earthquakes. Dr Susan Hough, a seismologist at
the United States Geological Survey says that stable continental crust may occasionally produce earthquakes
as large as magnitude 7.5.

Everyone around the world, even those living in the most stable tectonic areas, should try to familiarise
themselves with some simple procedures to follow if they experience shaking caused by an
earthquake should the unexpected ever occur.

Update 1 (05/04): Interplay between tectonics and earthquake activity in southern Africa
I have made a quick map showing the distribution of ridges, rifts and micro-plates in Southern Africa and how
these relate to earthquake activity in the region. Overall, the picture is very complicated but shows the main
network of structures that may have contributed to the Botswana earthquake.

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Rupture along a billion-year-old plate boundary in Botswana? - Stephen Hicks | Seismologist

Update 2 : Gravity sheds light on the possible fault(s) that ruptured

I have found a research paper from 2002 written by Ranganai et al. that maps small changes in gravity over
south-eastern Botswana to interpret the location of ancient geological provinces and faults.

The April 2017 earthquake occurred in a highly deformed region separating the Kaapvaal Craton from the
Zimbabwe Craton. The paper calls this region the LimpopoShashe Belt. This belt is composed of many
northwest-southeast trending shear zones and reverse (thrust) faults that were formed as the Kaapvaal and
Zimbabwe cratons slammed into each other billions of years ago (during the Archean eon). The authors
speculate that this collision might have been similar to the same mountain building process that has resulted
in the present-day Himalayan chain.

As the map shows below, the Mahalapye Shear Zone may be related to the fault that ruptured in April 2017.
The orientation of the fault is parallel to the orientation of the focal mechanism. However, the rupture was
extensional - not compressional like the mapped fault. Therefore, it is possible that the regional extensional rift
tectonics in Southern Africa have reverse the sense of motion of these faults in a so-called stress inversion .

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Rupture along a billion-year-old plate boundary in Botswana? - Stephen Hicks | Seismologist

Gravity map of the southeastern Botswana region overlain with interpreted fault locations and the 2017 Botswana
earthquake. Gravity map comes from Ranganai et al. (2002).

With the possible complexity of this earthquake that was suggested by the early data, it is possible that more
than one of these closely-spaced faults ruptured during the magnitude 6.5 earthquake. More detailed analysis
will be needed to look at this possible scenario.

Further information

Earthquake Report from Dr. Jay Patton

USGS earthquake page
EMSC earthquake page
UC Berkeley Seismo Blog

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49 Comments

Januka 4/4/2017 15:51:49

Very nice summary Stephen!

Reply

Stephen Hicks 5/4/2017 08:06:40

Thank you for your comment!

Reply

Adele 4/4/2017 18:30:06

Excellent article. Thank you.

Reply

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Rupture along a billion-year-old plate boundary in Botswana? - Stephen Hicks | Seismologist

Stephen Hicks 5/4/2017 08:06:59

Thank you!

Reply

Ana Admira 4/4/2017 19:20:35

that is an important information

Reply

Stephen Hicks 5/4/2017 08:11:56

Thank you for reading!

Reply

Flip Nothling 4/4/2017 22:58:37

Thank you. Interesting article.

Could the earthquake be related to the Limpopo-Okavango rift which developed and stopped, with the break up of
Gondwana? The earthquake appears to be to the south of the dykes but the extension seems to have the correct
direction. (I am not a geologist.)

Reply

Stephen Hicks 5/4/2017 08:16:27

Interesting points - thanks for commenting. It's possible that the earthquake might have been partly induced by
Limpopo-Okavango. These will be part of the scientific questions that need to be asked. You certainly sound
like a geologist!

Reply

Evan Proxie 5/4/2017 02:13:46

Please get deformation data. Maybe it will provide clues to what exactly happened. This is very puzzling indeed.
Possibly a new fault line is being created or an entire tectonic plate is about to split. Hidden super volcano maybe I am
still looking at data

Reply

Stephen Hicks 5/4/2017 08:14:05

Interesting points - thanks for reading!

Reply

Penny Rees 5/4/2017 06:39:09

Most informative, thank you. Has anyone considered the fact that evidence points to seismic activity resulting from
fracking and that fracking is now being g undertaken in Botswana

Reply

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Rupture along a billion-year-old plate boundary in Botswana? - Stephen Hicks | Seismologist

Stephen Hicks 5/4/2017 08:14:50

Interesting, but I don't think fracking could directly produce such a large magnitude earthquake. Thanks for
reading the post!

Reply

Paul Gray 5/4/2017 08:24:51

It is doubtful that fracking at this stage, has anything to do with this event, but it is most interesting.
There appears to be the geological faults, and additionally, areas of ancient magma outpouring, as well as
extinct volcanoes and pipes. Some seem to relate to fault areas and others quite remote.

Reply

Dion van Zyl 5/4/2017 07:02:24

Yes as mid-west USA and the UK have only experienced these recently since the advent of Fracking?...
Certainly not a geologist but 2 and 2 are bound to add up pretty close to 4,..
Overlaying maps could assist,. http://www.survivalinternational.org/news/9762
Thanks for the insights Steven!

Reply

Stephen Hicks 5/4/2017 08:17:08

Interesting point, but I don't think fracking could directly produce such a large magnitude earthquake. Thanks
for reading my post.

Reply

Peter Bateman 6/4/2017 00:53:07

The fracking that was carried out in Botswana had been carried out at a depth of 300 - 400 meters a
few years ago in sedimentary and therefore more plastic material. Fracture propagation is generally
horizontal in this type of material following along material with a similar overburden pressure and
similar material competency. This tectonic quake has happened at a suggested depth of 30,000
meters in a totally different material in a different location.

Penny Price 5/4/2017 08:19:05

Thank you for pulling together this very informative article so quickly. Appreciated.

Reply

Stephen Hicks 5/4/2017 19:54:56

Hi Penny, thanks for your comment.

Reply

Raf 5/4/2017 08:41:31

Very interesting and accurate summary. Bye from Italian geographers

Reply

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Jerome Dyment 5/4/2017 08:45:49

The East African Rift does not separate the African and Indian plates, as mistakenly written, but the Nubian and
Somali plates which together were earlier seen as a single African plate.

Reply

Stephen Hicks 5/4/2017 10:52:26

Hi Jerome

Many thanks for your comment and providing your expertise. Yes you were correct - I have now changed the
text to reflect this.

Thanks again,
Stephen

Reply

Jrme Dyment 7/4/2017 14:02:45

Great. The problem stll appears in the figure of update 1. Good job by the way, please continue!

David 5/4/2017 10:17:54

Great article. I can't clearly make out from the map if the 12 hours earlier South African earthquake was on the same
ancient plate boundary.

Reply

Stephen Hicks 5/4/2017 10:55:31

Hi David

Thanks for your comment. I don't see any evidence that the Botswana quake was in any way related to the
SA event. They are too far apart and the SA quake was much smaller.

Stephen

Reply

Bokamoso 5/4/2017 15:25:45

I'm reading this from Botswana, very interesting. But in Moiyabana village Steve, where the quake initially started, it left
a rapture in the ground. Does that therefore mean there is high possibility of yet another quake. Um saying this
because the quake happened yet again in the early hours of the morning today

Reply

Stephen Hicks 6/4/2017 08:22:27

Dear Bokamoso

There will certainly be aftershocks, but unfortunately we cannot tell when and where the next one will occur. If
you have a photo of the rupture, feel free to email it to me at [email protected]

Thanks
Stephen

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Reply

Desmond Peach 5/4/2017 16:32:36

Thank you for a splendid explanation of the situation in Botswana and surroundinding countries pertaining to the
recent earth quake. The weanessesi in th Craton layer and the effect of gravity.on the stress plates was most
interesting.

Reply

Stephen Hicks 5/4/2017 19:55:39

Desmond, thank you for commenting - I'm glad the post was understandable for you.

Reply

Abraham 5/4/2017 18:46:25

I thought the Tectonics are drifting towards North East in Africa. ..?Nice article and informative though.

Reply

Gaolatlhe 5/4/2017 19:25:57

Thanks Stephen for this eye opening article.

Reply

Gwandu 5/4/2017 19:28:17

Hi Steve thanks for the informative article. I am a geologists at Botswana Geoscience Institute. I suggest we should
wait for data from all local seismic stations to accurately locate the epicentre. Then post earthquake high res satellite
images can be used and compared with pre-earthquake images to check for any ground changes. Also both gravity
and magnetic survey can follow ti check any differences in terms of subsurface structures.

Reply

Stephen Hicks 5/4/2017 19:57:19

Hi Gwandu.

Many thanks for taking the time to comment. This article was originally meant for a scientific audience but I'm
glad it has stimulated some public interest. I will send you an email separately.

Many thanks,
Stephen

Reply

Mark Green 5/4/2017 21:20:51

Hi

I just wanted to say that this is the best science article I've read in ages. Obviously written by an expert in the field but
also incredibly well explained to the lay reader.

You should start firing this post off to every popular scientific journal in the world because you're good at this.

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Reply

Stephen Hicks 6/4/2017 08:20:49

Hi Mark,

Thank you very much indeed - that is very flattering to hear :).

Stephen

Reply

Christiaan Botha 7/4/2017 09:58:33

Hi Stephen, I think I was as surprised as Mark to learn that it was written for the scientific guys. If more
scientific people write like this, we that have near no knowledge will read more of these articles as well. But,
I'm sure some of your buddies appreciate the trend in which you did write it as well. Thereby I do not claim to
understand everything, But thank you very much

Reply

Phyllis Elias 6/4/2017 08:15:01

Thank you for the clearest article I have ever had the pleasure of reading. I am sure that the children of Botswana will
find it totally absorbing, since most of them will never have experienced a seismic event, but will be agog to know all
they can about this one. I am passing the link to friends who are teachers in that wonderful country, as I know they will
find it a huge help too.

Reply

Stephen Hicks 6/4/2017 08:20:14

Dear Phyllis

Many thanks for your kind comment - I hope you found it useful.

Stephen

Reply

Thabiso 6/4/2017 10:27:38

This is the most informative article on this earthquake that i have come across so far. I have read Ranganai et al 2002
before from doing my research at ORI. Used to call it the genesis paper about the Okavango. So i think the overlaying
of the maps maybe on to something. I love Gwandu's thoughts too. Hope you both get in touch.Keep us updated.

Reply

Abel 6/4/2017 13:44:21

Good work and many thanks.

The actual epicenter is currently not accessible due to heavy sand and thick bushes. Based on the geological setting
of that area is the faulting can either be strike slip fault or normal fault since is on extensional zones. At the moment is
only speculations and assumptions. More reality will be revealed as team reaches the actual area. I was 170km when
it happened.

Reply

Kenneth Toteng 6/4/2017 18:28:28

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Rupture along a billion-year-old plate boundary in Botswana? - Stephen Hicks | Seismologist

Very interesting indeed. This quake as reported by neighbouring residents to the epicentre was more like a volcano
that failed. They reported of a very loud explosion that occured there.

Reply

Fulvio 6/4/2017 21:12:49

Excellent summary. We've been in the field right after the earthquake and I can confirm that there is no rupture at the
surface. There is a thick drape of quaternary sands in the area, at least 120/130 meters.
The epicenter is along a well known shear zone that runs across the country, it is surprising though that such an old
structure can be reactivated by distant extensional tectonics. I don't believe in the direct link between fracking and
shaking... but what about all the blasting carried in the area by the mines? As shown in your map in the mining areas
of SA mine-related earthquakes are common. Am I wrong?

We might be back with some geophysical equipment to check if we can imagine the displacement.

Reply

Stephen Hicks 7/4/2017 06:42:48

Dear Fulvio

Thank you so much for your insightful comment. It would be great to collaborate on some studies on the
earthquake. I am trying to apply for some funding in the UK to help support the effort. Feel free to send me
an email at [email protected].

Thanks,
Stephen

Reply

Abel 10/4/2017 10:28:10

Hi Fulvio
Just a question here regarding your comments.
1. Did you say you actually went to the epicenter and found no ground rapture?
I went to the area and we failed to reach the epicenter due to thick sand and thick bush cover.
I however been as a close as 50km from the area and there are visible cracks on the ground through the
Kalahari sand cover. The Gope settlements which is also in close proximity to the epicenter has also suffered
serious ground cracks. Surely the ground has suffered some 2 degree rapture for the quake.

Reply

Fulvio 10/4/2017 11:02:49

Hi Abel,
We drove along the CKGR fences and no signs of displacements or fractures. We were 5 km away
from the epicenter. Unfortunately we've got there late in the afternoon and didn't have much time for
exploring around.
We heard of the damages at Gope. Several houses have been damaged also in Moiyabana 120 km
away from the epicenter.

Can you share the coordinates of the fractures you have found?

Stephen Hicks 10/4/2017 12:11:40

Dear Abel,

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Rupture along a billion-year-old plate boundary in Botswana? - Stephen Hicks | Seismologist
Thank you for noticing the possible rupture. If you took any photos, could you please send them to
me at [email protected] please? I can send post them on the blog for many people to see.

Thanks,
Steve

Paul Masilo 6/4/2017 23:11:25

Please update us after you get more data regarding the closely spaced fault rapture.
Usually these plate faults tend to collide and slide over each other and not reverse as it might be the case in Kaapvaal
and Zimbabwe cratons. Also if the Mahalapye shear zone had a direct impact or relationship with 7.5 quake in April
2017

Reply

Trevor Thompson 9/4/2017 06:29:09

Most interesting discourse......

Reply

Ellie Martin 9/4/2017 19:27:51

Hi, I'm not a geologist or anything remotely related, I just find this sort of thing very interesting. I check the USGS
quake site a couple times a day. I noticed the cluster of quakes in Botswana this morning, then went on Google to see
what was up. Before I found your article, I learned about the Okavango Delta. Living in the Prairies in Canada, I found
the idea that even geographically stable areas can have big quakes a tad unnerving. LOL I find this all quite
fascinating.

Reply

Harold Van Zyl 19/4/2017 08:52:45

Hi Stephen,

Very informative article. Last year May when my wife and myself drove through the village of Hatsalatladi about 80 km
south of the epicenter, there was a massive rupture which ran obliquely across the road and disappeared into the
bush. This rupture could only have been cause by natural phenomenon. I followed the fracture for about 500 m. Took
some photos of the structure, even one with my wife standing waist deep in one of the trenches. I can make these
photos available to you, it does seem like we are dealing with a reactivation of some very old tectonic plates in the
area. We don't really expect that kind of activity in this region. Most earthquakes here are associated with the deep
gold mining in south Africa and some activity in the northeastern part of the country as a result of the southern most
part of the African Rift Valley Structure.
Regards.

Harold.

Reply

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