Introduction oo r century OY 9f mathematical probability has is origin in the Tyce atte erat apptoaches of measuring proba roma nical probaly, relative feequeney of occutencs toc ela eager we sal ey he asl Qassical Definition ‘The outcomes of. poet fandom experiment are termed as events, Feemcen pelt the opcurtence of an event 4 is defined as the creat and umber of favourable outcomes forthe occurrence af the total number of possible outcomes, ie, of favourable outcomes ‘Total number of outcomes Probability of an event = In this def ky to edition we have to axsure that the outoomes are beige ane Suppo a coins sed Ther are two pose Ahead and ‘ait Both are equally likely events ae The probably ofpting head = 1, Example 2: Suppose ad : namely 1a ste dis thoon. There are ix posible oto these events are equally likely to occur. 3 tt escola | B ample 3: Suppose a bag it a Suppose a bag contains 4 white and 6 red balls and a bal salad tert an a fandom. There are 10 equally ikelyevents Silt the hall drawn is white = 4/10 = 26, ara Tae Example 4: The 4 white and ¢ The prob: lity of getting an even number = robability of draving a red ball from a bag contai i black balls is zero. In this cas bal ian ig ack als zero. In his case the event of drawing a WW .STMARYSMBA Probability __ Example S : The probability of throwing a number less than 7 inthe toss. ‘off die with faces marked 1 to 6is 1. Inthis case the number of favourable sutcomes is equal to the number of possible outcomes. Therefore, the vent is called sure event. From the classical definition of probability and from the above- mentioned examples we obscrve that the probability of an event A is a real number lying between 0 to 1 (inclusive of these events), ie, 0 P(A) S1. We now define three types of events called ({) mutually exclusive events ; (ii) mutually exclusive and exhaustive events ; and independent events. ‘Two cvents A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if the ‘occurrence of one excludes the occurrence of the other. A set of events said tobe mutually exclusive and exhaustive ifallthe events are mutually exclusive and no other events is possible, Two events arc said to be independent if the occurrence of one event has no influence over the ccurrence of the other. The mathematical definition ofthese events wil be seen later. Example 1 : Consider the experiment of tossing a coin, The possible outcomes are Hand T and these two events are mutually exclusive Example 2 : Consider the experiment of drawing a ball from a bag containing 4 white, 5 black and 6 red balls, The events A—drawing a white ball, B-drawing a black ball, and C-drawing a red ball are mutvally txclusive, Also these events are mutually exclusive and exhaustive since ro other event is possible, In the case of smutually exclusive and exhaustive events the sum of the separate probabilities is one. 1 +$e1 eee Seu i (ie), P (head) + P(tail) = P(A) + PIB) +P) = 55 Fxample 3 : Consider the experiment of tossing two coins. The events ‘getting head in the first coin’ and ‘getting héad in the second coin’ are independent. The probabilities in the case of mutually exclusive and independent events are easily determined by using the theorems called ‘Addition and Multiplication theorems. Addition theorem is applied in -CO.NRthe case of mutually exelusive events and the multpliestion tf the eave ut independent events, We nov slate these thearems 1 2 p,. The events ‘Ist Addition Theorem, js head! nd the event ‘2ad coin is head’ are independent, Also the aa In the ease of a Set of mutually exclusive events, the prob i ae ae a Gate forthe occurrence of one or other of hese events is equal to th thcit separate probabillies py 2. p, PX Ps Udit nh es 4 (ict) ae P= PX Py Multiplication Theorem Hence the multiplication theorem is illustrated. In the case ofa set of independent events the probability (a) {in fayour and odds against an event occurrence of all these events is equal to the product of their se delat hie, rh Mp is the probability of success of an event and q is the probability lure of the event, then ratio © is called the odds in favour of the Ge) B= D.. By Ps mons Py q Example: Consider the example of drawing a ball at random containing 4 white, 6 black and 10 red balls. Suppose we are fn Ta UBT Gt Beng teh ball o6'@ Hck Ck eae {ie.), we say that the odds in favour of an event is 4 to 3 we mean daiceesdiva es he numberof favourable cases (othe numer of unfavourable eases 10 3 Weds against an event is $ co 7 we mean thatthe number of jvourable cases to the number of favourable cases is 4to 7. In the first and the rato is clled the odds against the event The probability that the ball drawn isred = 2 =p 0 ws the poabity ofthe een end ase the pray The probability that the ball is black = The number of ways of drawing a red or black bal 1s ‘Total number of ways = 21 eee Approach + The probability thatthe ball drawn is red or black = 26 ‘The set ofall possible outcomes of a random experiment is called the ee ete ple space S. These outcomes are called events. The union (4 UB) of any Las vents and Bis an event. The intersection (ANB) of two events A and aaeytne adipica theatres ieapeaiad in event. The complement 4" ofan event A is alo an event. Two events Example : Consider the experiment of tossing two coins, The possib RE iad a Cece: outcomes are (H, H), (H, 7), (T, #4) (T, 7). Suppose we are inter 8 of Probability tn he eyeot oth re beads Let be a sample space and 4 be an event in $, Then P (A) is called The probability thatthe Ist coin is head = } = p, {probability of the event if the following conditions are satisfied (i) Pye (i) P= (ii) WA and B are mutually exclusive events WWW .STMARYSMBA.CO.NABusiness $f P (aus) = P(A) + PB) The following important theorem can easily be proved axioms. Addition Theorem For any two ovents A and B in, P (AUB) = P(A) + P(B) ~ PLANE) This is also called the addition theorem on Probability. Note: £4 and B are disjoint, (ANB) = P (f) Conditional Probability Often we come across with certain events which are relate ‘occurrence of other events. For example, we may be interest ‘chance of an individual selected in the medical test given that he probability. We define the conditional probal Definition: Let A and B be apy two events in. The probability B given that the event A has already occured Is called the eu probability of B given thatthe event A has occured and is defi formula: P(AnB) P@) rans) Also, PBA) = FETS? where P(A) > 0 PAB) = where P (B) > 0. Multiplication Theorem Let A and B be the two events of 5. P (4B) = P(A). PO If, B, Care three events in $, then, P (ABC) = P(A). P(BIA).P (CIAB). Independent Events If events. and B arc independest then PB) = P(A). PB) or P(BiA) = PB) Trallour discussions we come across only with equally ikely events For caenlaing the probability of equally Tikely evens, we apply some of the results of permutations and combinations. Hence we give some of Whe essential results inthis direction Permutation Permutationisa process of finding arrangements of different things Consider three things 4, B and C, They can be arranged as followe: ABC, ACB, BCA, BAG, CAB, CBA There are 6 possible arrangements. Suppose there are 10 persons ‘and 2 prizes and all are equally capable of getting any of the prizes. Then Ihe wo prizes can be distributed in 109 ways. The number of ways of Arranging r diferent things at a time out of n things is given by the formula, Pe GaAi Where n ! = 1,2,3......mis the product of first positive integers. np, means the arrangement of things out of m things. Note: whenr =n, a Taxa = a! since 0 1 is conveniently taken as 1 Bxoaplet: 7P, 10P, 4P, = nP, = n(n-1) @-2) Example 2: The number of ways of giving 3 prizes among 10 persons o that each can get only one prize is10P, = 10 x 9X 8 = 720, Example 3: The number of different 3 digit numbers that can be formed out of the digits 0,1, 2, wume 9159 % 9X 8, WWW .STMARYSMBA.CO.NABusiness Stat Example 4: The number of ways of preparing car plates with 3 English alphabets beginning with M and 3 digits, the first being different from zeros (1 x 26 x 26) x (9 x 10x 10). ‘Combination Combination is a process of selecting r things out of m things Consider four things 4, B, C and D. We can select 3 out of 4 in th following ways. ABG, ABD, BCD and ADC. ‘To find the number of selections of things out of n things, we hay ‘a mathematical formula given by; Herene, means the number of selections, ofr things out of n thi Note 1: ney = 1 me, = 1 Relation between nc, and np, Lata ‘Numerical evaluation : 1x 6x5 1x2x3 ia = Wx9x8x7 _ SUTK2K3xK4 Fae 6XxSx4x3 _ 6x5 = Txax3xd 71x27 © Note 4 ae Example 1: The number of ways of selecting 3 balls from 4 white Sblack balls = 10c,. Example 2: The number of ways of selecting 2 white balls and 3 b balls out of 5 white and 6 black balls, = Se, X 6, = 10x15 = 150 Permutations and combinations are widely used in probability. We use thei in some of the problems inthe illustrations given below: Example 1: A coin is tossed twice. Find the probability of getting atleast one head Solution: The possible outcomes when a coin is tossed twice are (H,H), (H,1), (1, H), and (7, 7). Total number of possible outcomes = 4. ‘The favourable outcomes for the event ‘atleast one head’ are (H, H), (H, 7), (7, H). Number of favourable outcomes = 3. The probability of getting atleast one head = 3/4 Example2 : Three coins are tossed. Find the probability of getting (i) atleast one head, (i) exactly 2 heads olution : The possible outcomes are, (H, H, H), (H, H,), (Hy T, H), (T, H, 4); (H, T, 7), (7, H, T), (7, T, H), (T, T, 7). Nuniber of possible outcomes = 8. Number of favourable outcomes the event ‘atleast one head ‘The probability of getting atleast one head = Number of outcomes for the event ‘exactly 2 heads’ Probability for getting exactly heads Total number of outcomes = 2X2X2= 8 Example 3: Four coins are tossed. Find the probability of getting 2 heads and 2 tails Solution : Total number of outcomes = 2x 2x2x2= 16 Favourable outcomes for 2 heads and 2 tails are (H, H, T, T), (H, T, H,.7), (H, T, T, H), (T, H, H, T) (T, H, 7, H), (T, T, H, H). Number of favourable outcomes = 6, " Probability for 2 heads and 2 tails WWW .STMARYSMBA.CO.NA8 Business Statist Probability mm 5 “. Number of favourable outcomes = 30 Example 4 A perfect die is tossed twice. F:ind the probability of ail ofa : ae + Probability that the oumber chosen 30 Solution : When two dice are thrown, the posessible outcomes are : isgreaterthan 70 = 55 = 03 G0), 22), 43), (44), 0.5), 04.9) Qs), (22), (23), (2,4), (25), 200) GD, 82), 83), G4), 83), GES) (41), (4,2), 4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (49) GD, (52), 62). 6.4, (55), 629) 2), (62), 63), (6.4), (6.5), (25) + Total number of outcomes = 6x6 * = 3. The favourable outcomes for a total of 79 are (356), (4,5), ( and (63). ‘= Number of favourable outcomes =4 4 * The probability for getting atotalof9 = + = 1 Example $: An integer is chosen at random outt of the integers from 1 100, What is the probability tha, itis (i) multiple of 5, Gi) divisible by (Gil) greater than 70? Solution : Total number of possible outcomes = 100 (i) The number of ways of choosing integer which is « multiple 5= 20, “+ Probability thatthe chosen intege 1 isa multiple of 5 = 23, = 2 (i) There are 14 numbers from 1 to 100 vehich ae divisible by + Number of favourable outcomes = 14. : The probability that the number chosen is divisible by 7 14 Example 6:A bag contains 4 white and 6 black balls. Two balls are drawn it random. What is the probability that (a) both are white, (b) both are black, (c) one white and one black ? Solution: Number of white balls 4 Number of black balls 6 Total number of balls 0 Number of balls drawn 2 Number of ways of drawing 2 balls ez (@ Number of ways of drawing 2 white balls =4c, The probability of drawing 2 white balls 4x3 ores WiiO2 eyes 1, ~ “oxo ~ is 1x2 Gi) Number uf ways of drawing 2 black balls = 6c Probability that the balls drawn are black 6x5 Me KD eile aos 1x2 (ii) Number of ways of drawing one white and one black ball = hp x6 Probability of drawing one white and one black ball : mx SION.) 82 z iox9 ~ 15 1x2 Example 7 : In calculating the premium payable for Life Insurance policies, Insurance Companies use information derived from ‘mortality tables, Extract taken from a mortality table is given below WWW .STMARYSMBA.CO.NABusiness 381 Probability Males per 1,000 births Nt If (wo of these workers are selected at random to serve as —______ Number of males livi representatives, what isthe probability that atleast onewill get wage lower 1,000 than the average ? Sotution : Average wage Find the probability that @ male aged 25 will, (2) Attain the age of 45 years, (©) Attain the age of 45 years but not 75 (©) Not attain the age of 65 years, Number of workers Number of persons selected Number of ways of selecting 2 workers Number of workers with weekly wages Solution Jess than Rs, 77 =2 (@) Number of males aged 25 years = 958 Number of workers with weekly wages more than Rs. 77 4 Number of males aged 45 years = 905 The probability that a male aged 25 years will each the age of 45 = 205 Number of ways of selecting 2 workers with weekly wages more than RS.77 = 4c, Probability that atleast one will getwwages less than Rs. 77 = 1 — probability that both will get wages more than or equal to Rs. 77. (b) Number of males aged 75 years ~ 413, ‘Number of males reaching 45 years but not 75 years = 905 ~ 413 = 492. Probability that «male aged 25 year wll reach the age of eas SHAG but not 75 yeurs » 422 Feat & oss (6) Number of mates not reaching 65 years among those who 25 years old = 958 ~ 68) = 278 Probability thatthe male aged 25 years will not attain Exaple9: A sub-committee of 6 members sto be formed out of agroup consisting of 7 men and 4 women, Calculate the probability that the sub-committee will consist of (1) exactly 2 women, (2) atleast 2 women. Solution: Number of men Number of women Total number of persons Number of persons selected Example #: Given below are the weekly wages (in Rs.) of si ant e weekly wages (in Rs.) of six worl 2, 78-85, 79, 6k (2) Number of ways of selecting 2 women and 4 men WWW .STMARYSMBA.CO.NAProbability 33 Number of ways of selecting 6 persons . Probability of selecting exactly 5 210 rae 42 * iL Number of ways of selecting alcast two womes = [ex] + [Fo x5] +f = 20+ w+ 2 = 3m Probability of selecting alleast two women : an _ 3 © 462 * 66 Example 10: A candidate is selected for interview in three different posts. Théte are 3 candidates fr the frst post, 4for the second post and 2 forthe third post. Whats the probability that he willbe selected for one ofthe posts? Solution : Number of candidates inthe ist post 3 ‘Number of candidates in the 2nd post = 4 ‘Number of candidates in the 3rd post 2 ‘The probability that the candidate is sclected for three pos! 5+ ge 3 eopectively. ‘The probabilities that he is not selected for these posts are £ respectiv Fj and 5 respectively. ‘The probability that he wil be selected for one of the posts = 1 ~ Probability that be will not be selected for any of the posts Example 11 : The probabilities of 3 students A, B, C solving a problem and 1A poten opengl th 3 dudes ‘What is the probability that, (1) No one will solve the problem, 2). Only one will solve the problem, @) Atleast one will solve the problem? Solution: Probability of A solving the problem = Probability of B solving the problem = Probability of C solving the problem Probabilities of A, B, C not solving the problem are respectively. (Q) Probability of none solving the problem = Probability of4 not solving the problem x Probability of 2 not solving the problem x Probability of C not solving the problem. tye 263 ed Anke 4 Taam @ Probability of only one solving the problem = Probability ofA alone solving the problem + Probability of B alone solving the problem + Probability of C alone solving the problem. 1,243 hogy dey 8 1,2 a ey m4 3) Probability of etleast one solving the problem bility that no one will solve the problem. WWW .STMARYSMBA.CO.NAProbability Example 12: A machine consists of two parts and B. Ina sample of 10 é items in Part-A, there are 5 defectives and in a sample of 100 iteme j Number of candidates passed in Paper-B Part-B, there arc 10 defectives. One item is chosen from each of the Number of candidates failed in Paper-B samples and the machine is composed. What isthe probability that th Number of candidates failed in both Papers machine composed is non- defective ? ‘Therefore, AI Solution : The machine is non-defective only if both the parts are nom No, of candidates failed only in Paper detectives, ns re oe No) ot caiin eo ea ‘Total number of failed candidates The probability that the item from Part-A is non-defective = 25. No. of candidates passed in both the papers a (The probability that the candidate selected is passed in both he probability thatthe item from Part-B is non-defective ~ 2 ‘The probability that the item from Part-B defective = 5 the papers = 3 ‘Therefore, the probability that the machine is non-defective 3 90 ‘The probability that the candidate is failed only in A. ga fx02 Example 13: The results of examinations in two papers A and B for 20 ‘i y candidates were as fllows: (ii) The probability that he /she isfailed ind or B = 35 8 candidates passed in Paper-A “4 eee 7 candidates passed in Paper-B. Example 14: A husband and a wife appear 1 8 candidates failed in both Paper-A and Paper-B, ‘vacancies inthe same post. The probability of husband!’ selection is + IC out of these candidates one is selected, what is the probabil that be / she ‘and that of wife is 4. What is the probability that, fous sae es? 6 ‘of them will be selected, (Gi)_faifed only in A. 6 i) both of them wil (i) failed i A of B. Gi)_ only one of them will be selected, (ii) none of them will be selected.? Solution ; The probability that the husband is selected P(H) ‘Therefore, ‘The probability that he is not selected P(H) Let X and denote the set of students failing in papers A and ‘The probability that the wife is selected P(W) respectively Total number of candidates Number of candidates passed in Paper-A Number of candidates failed ia Paper-A ‘The protability that she is not selected PC) (i) The probability that both re seierted: 7 = PUD PW = XS WWW .STMARYSMBA.CO.NABe Business Statist (i) The probability that only one will be selected = Probability husbandis selected but not wife + Probability that wifes but not husband = Pi) KP) +PMHPR sie) Sela tac 2) RSET ag (ii) The probabifity that none willbe selected. PO). PM), a eee Ts a Example 15 : The odds are.9 to 5 against a person who is 50 years liv ing till he is 70 and 8 to 6 against a person who is 60 living tll he is 80. Find the probability tha atleast one of them will ive after 20 years. ‘The odds against 50 years old person living till he is70 is 9 to 5. ‘Therefore, the probability that he will live till 70 years. = To probability that he will not live till 70 years wn ‘The odds against 60 yeors old person living till 80 years are 8 to 6, Therefore the probability that he willie ki #0 years = 6 The probability that he will not live til 80 years -< The probability that atleast one of the persons will live 20 more years =1~ Probability that he will not live 20 more, years. Pipe Bite 32 Wi = 9 Example 16: Five men in a company of 20 are graduates. If3 men are picked out from this 20 persons at random, what is the probability that (@ all are graduates (i) atleast one is a graduate ? Total number of persons = 2 Number of graduates "5 ‘Number of non-graduates = 15 Probability a Number of persons selected =3 Number of ways of sclecting 3 persons out of age, 20 persons ‘Number of ways of selecting 3 graduates = 50, ooh (© Probability ha all the 3 selected are graduates = 35-- 5x4x3 M290 ots pols = joxi9xis ~ id 1x2x3 Gi) Probability that of the 3 selected one is a graduate = 1~ Probability that no one is a graduate Be oT ee A Fate Ne mae) ioe ae Example 17: Assuming that the ratio of male children to female children tobe 1:1, find the probability that in a family of 6 children, (i) all will be of the same sex i (i). there is atleast one boy and atleast one giel. Solution : 1 Probability that abirthismale = 5 i Probability that abirth is.afemale = > Number of children in the family = 6 (i Probability that all are of the same sex: The probability that all are males or females. = Probability for all males + Probability that all are females. 6 ‘ Z a) ak ped () +) 3-3 i) Probability that there is atleast one male and atleast one female, = 1 = Probability that all are males or females WWW .STMARYSMBA.CO.NABusiness Staristiog 31 2 Example 18 : Out of 1,000 persons bora, only 800 reach the age of 10 ‘out of every 1,(4X) who reach the age of 10, 850 reach the axe of 40. Out fof every thousand who reach the age of 40, 25 die in one year. What is th probability that 4 person would attain the age of 41 years ? Solution : The probability that a person will reach 10 years Th pba that beh lao each 0 year ™[obliy that be shew etc years) x [Probab ht elke wil reach 0 Je 800, 850 itn * ib The probly hat hehe wl a esc the geo 3 My BD 5 G55 Example 19: Two persons 4 and B toss a coin alternatively. The perso who gets head first wins the game, Find the chances of A and B winaing the game Solution : The probability of 4 winning the game = The probability of 4 getting head in the Ist tos + probability of 4 getting head in the 2nd toss + Probability of A getting head in the 3rd toss +... a WWW .STMARYSMBA.CO.NA Probability ‘The probability of 3 winning the game = 1 ~ Probability of A winning the game «1-224 3.00mi Example 20 : The probability that a student passes in Siatisties exitnir-tion is 2 and the probability that he/she will not pass in Mathematics examination is 59. The probability that he/she will pass in atleast one of the examinations is 4/5. Find the probability hat he/she wall pais in both the examinations, ‘Sdlution : The probability of passing in Statistics examination P(S) The probability of passing in’ Mathematics examinations P(M) = 49 ‘The probability of passing atleast one of these examinations is PUM = 45 But P(SUM) = P(S) + P(N - Pisin, +4 pany i W+™mM~3% 14 wat 5 Example 21 : There are 1,000 students in ¢ college; 400 of them arc in Tajni! medium (T) while others arc in English Medium (), Also among thie 1,000 students, 700 have taken Science courses (S) and others ar collises (A). There are 200 in Science courses with Tamil medium. A stutlent is selected at random and is found to be from Science cours What is the probability that he/she is in English medium ? Solttion : ‘The probability of passing in both the examinations P (SOM)We have to determine P (E/S) 500, 500, Eumple 23°C pau of dice ws thrown find the protabilty that the sum is 700 eithet ~ nor Now P(e) = 2 = 5 Boiwion: Tosi suner arouses = 66. The possible ways of geting atta of Tor Ih awe 11,6), (2.5) OA), 4 5.2) (6 1) and (3.6) 6 9) Number of ways of geting ? or tI = & umber of ways of geting neither Taor IY 636-8 = 28 7 Probab thatthe sum is nether? nor thas 28 = 368 mmple 4: An imestment consultant predicts that the dds agains he Note: We can also arrive at this result by using the definition conditional probability _ PUES) _ 500/100 _ 5 PEI) = "F) = Fo0r100 ~ 7 Example 22 : Suppose one persons selected at random from a group) ‘of 100 persons known to conform to the following pattera of political views. E Communist Socialist Democrat rice ofa certain stock will go up during the ext weck are 2:1 and the odds in ‘Men. 5 5 10 veut of the price remaming the same are 1 : 3. What is the probability that Eh Women 20 yes of thisstock will aa down during the nestwveck? : Total 5 Botution : the ods auainst te price voing upare 2:1 (ocala Sie 1a going i - i i ‘What is the probability that the man selected is a communist ? The probably that the price will go up = 5. ‘The odds in favour of the Solution : Let 4 be the event of selecting a man and B be the eve selecting a Communist, The event of interest i that the person sele is a communist given that he is a man, Therefore we have to pice remaining the same are 1:3 the probability P (B/A), ‘he probability thai the price will romain thesame = - The events. the Ps) & aes SABA). P(B) Aclusive and exhaustive. af y rus) = Teepe die ivan = 1-24 w= ixample 25: Out of 120 tickets numbered successively from 1 10 120, oncis Li 100 josen at random. What is the probability of getting a number which is a ie ecimipiso sr 1a tile of 5? a 100 100 10 jlution: Total number of outcomes = 120. lumber of favourable outcomes = 24 ample 26: 4, B, C are thtee mutually exclusive and exhaustive evens, ind PUB) aT LPC) = LPC) = PCB) lution: Since 4, B, Care mutually exclusive and exhaustive, (4) + P(B)+ P(C) = 1 P(C) = 3P(B) WWW .STMARYSMBA.CO.NABusiness Statistics 23 m2 Solution: P(nmmber is odd) = 2° (number is even) Let the P(number is even) = x (number is odd) = 2x Put P(L)+P(2) +P(3)-+P(4) + P(S)+ P66) Dxtr+deert2ety PCA) = 2P(By 2P(B)+ PCB) +3P(B) = 1 1 6P(B) = 1 eB) =) 4 Example 27: Three horses.t, &, Care in tace, is twice as likely to win. and 8 is wrice as likely to win as C. What are their respective probabilitics ‘winning? Solution: (1) = 27(8) PUB) = 2B) PA) = APO) P(A) + P(B)+ PCC) = 1 4P(C)+IP(C)EP(C) = 1 % ator xe 5 (0 The probability that te number isa peter squane = Pt) PA) 22th ee 22d puis iy The probabitty thatthe umber is perfect Square given that itis ereater than3 = PQ) TPC) = 1. PC) = Ina play of two dice, the thrower loses if his first throw is 2, 4or his first throw is a5 or 11. Find the ratio between his probability Probability of winning in the frst throw, (C.A. Foundation’93) ‘Total number of outcomes in at?stow of a pair of dice = 6x6 = 36 Fsvourable outcomes for getting 2,4 or 12 are (1,1), (1,3), 2,2), 1, 6,6), Number of favourable outcomes 4 PEAY = © ant (By = e Example 28 : Two urns contain respectively 10 white, 6 red and 9 black and 3 white, 7 red and 13 black balls. One ball is drawn from each urn ‘the probability that (1) both balls are red (i) both balls are ofthe same e a H svourable outcomes fora total of $ or 11 are (1, 4), @, 3), G2), (4, 1), (5,6), Solution: White ee es for a total of Sor LI are (1, 4), 2,3), (3,2), 4, 1), (5,6), ul le [9 INumber of favourable outcomes Una ay ae ce robability of getting 2, 4 of 12. =,— (i) Probability of drawing red ball from each urn ~ 36 25°25 625 i Probability of drawing both the balls of the same colour = P(Both White) + P(bath red) +P (oth black) ieante 6 bability of getting 5 or 1] = — iy of getting as 5 4 ‘The rato of the probability of losing to that of wining = 48 3 6 333 8 304024135 ample 31: There are two bags. The first conthins 2 red and 1 white ball Hereas the second bag has only 1 red and 2 white balls, one ball is taken out at midom from the fitst bag and is being putin the sécond. Then a ball is chosen andom froin the second bag, What is the probability thatthe last ball is red? Example 29 A die is londed in such a way that each odd number is likely to occur as each even number. Find (j) the probability that th rolled is a perfect square and (i) the probability that the number perfect square provided it is greater than 3, WWW .STMARYSMBA.CO.NAPro Solution: ie Red Tite Hf Case 1: Suppose the ball transferred Is red then B, contains 2 red and2 white balls, In this case the ball drawn fo Pelee ee ape iG Te! (Case 2: Suppose the ball transferred is white then the 2nd bag contains ia and3 white In this case the probability that the ball drawn is red = 5% ‘Since the two cases are mutually exclusive the probability that the ball i opeaslivioke izes Example 32: A committee of + people is to be selected from 3 officers production department, 4 officers of the purchase department, two off the sales department and one chartered accountant, Find the probabil forming the committee in the following manner. ') There must be one from each category i) I should have atleast one from the purchase department. iii) The chartered accountant must be inthe committe. Solution: Department Nuriber of persons Production 3 Purchase 4 Sales 2 cA 1 Number to be selected for the commnitice = 4 4) Total number of ways of selecting 4 out 10 = 10C, UO 1234 ‘Number of ways of choosing one from each department yX4C, x2CxIC, = 3x4x2x1 = 24 2a ++ The probabil of choosing one from each department = > = WWW .STMARYSMBA.CO.NA Business Statistics Jn) Probability that there atleast one from the purchase department = 1- Probability that none is from this departmen 6, Bee 4 210 10 2% 5 li) The probability that CA is in the committee ‘xample 33 : There are 100 students ina college of which 36 are boys study- ing statistics and 13 are girls not studying statistics, Ifthere are 55 girls inal, find the probability that a boy picked up at random is not studying statistics Solution: iudying | Not studying statistics | statisucs | Total Boys 36 9 45 Gils 2 1B 5s Totat 8 2 100 ifrom the above table total number af boys = 45 Boys not studying statistics = 9 eos 4 Prot silty that a boy picked up at random riot studying statistics. = sample 34: A sample of ? item is selected at random from a box containing 2 items of which 3 are defective. Find the possible number of defective com- ination of the said 3 selected items along with a probability of a defective ombination. ‘Total number of items Number of defective items Number of non defective items1 = e Business Statistics ifan examine is selected fom this group find i) the probsbiity that he isa a eae grade (i the probability that He isa science graduate gven thal Hea tone 60 (i te probability hat his scores below 80 given hat he Total number of defective combinations Number of ways of choosing 3 items out of 12 Number of ways of 3 items of 9 good ones ace isaBA, unipae Solutio 12x10 9x87 ‘otal of graduates = 400 1 ixans 1k2a3 Number of commerce graduate = 150 x2x3 Dex oe ata 4}, P(e is a commerce graduate) = —— = = Pa @ cera oy) 30 iy The number of graduates with score above 60 ‘The probability of choosing a defective combination = Number of science graduates with score above 60 220 Example 35: A certain production process produces items that are 10% tive, Each item is inspected before being supplied to customers but the i tor incorrectly classifies an item 10% of the times. Only items classifi ‘good are supplied. 1£20 items m all have been supplied how many items expected to be defective? Solution: Let be the event that the item produced is good and # be the. that is classified correctly by the inspector. PCA) = 0.90 P(B) = 0.90 q ‘An item swill be supplied if () it is good and it is correcily classified by inspector and (ji) itis a defective and wrongly classified by the inspector, ‘© The probability that an item is supplied = 0.90%.904.10x.10 = 0814001 = 0.82 55 1 Bin ‘Phe isa science graduate given that his soore is above 60) (iii) Number of B.A. graduates 120 ‘Number of BA's with score below 50 = 90) 3 4 itisknown that 40% of the students in a certain college are girls +. Required probability, = Example 37 2 and 50% of the students are above the median height. If 5 of the boys are above the median height what isthe probability that a randomly selected stu ‘eat ho is below the median beight is a girl. Answer the problem preparing join. probability table The probability that a good item is supplied = 0.81 ie Bos] os otal “The probability tha a defective item is supplied ~ 0.01 2 4 The probability that aniong the items supplied an item is defective = z Above the median height B a 6 = .40 | 0.10 450 Number of defective out of 820 items supplied = 820x-- = 10 Below the median height B 020 © | 030 050 a one ogo | o4o Example 36 : The records of 400 examinces are given below. Total Ecisational Qualification probability that @ person selected is gi given thatthe person selected is Score BA | BS [ BCom | To _030 3 Below 50 ou 30. oo 180 below median height = ‘* Bernsen s0e60 20 | 7 | m0. | “160 Above 60 lo 30. wu 6) | Tota no_| a0 so0_| WWW .STMARYSMBA.CO.NA398 Prot Example 38: In an examination 30% of the students have failed in mi ‘cs, 20% have failed in chemistry and 10% failed in both mathemati ‘chemistry. student is selected at random (i) what is the probability tl student has failed in mathematics if itis known that he has failed in che (Gi) what isthe probability that the student has failed either in mathes chemistry, Soluti 10% fatied in mathematics and chemistry 20% failed only in mathematics 10% failed onty in chemistry, From dhe ver diagram we see that 10 (i) PIC) = #2 2 95 PaLIC) = Gi) Plt orcy = RHOHIO 100 Example 39 : What is the probability that over a two day period the number ‘requests would cither be 11 or 12 of at a motor garage ifthe records of set fequests along with their probabilitics are as given below: Probability 6 065 1 0.10 Solution : Fora demand of) or 12 two 5,7), (6,6), (7,5) P(Demands 5 and 6) = 0.25%0.65 = 0.1625 P(Demands 6 and 5) = 0.65% 0.25 = 0,1625 P(Demands 5, 7) = 0.25%0.10 = 0,025 P(Demands6, 6) =0.65 x 0.65=0.4225 P(emands7, 5)=0.10 025 P{Demand of 11 to 12 in nwo days) lays the possibilities are (5,6), (6, 1 " 0225 3 nampiesos 6 PA = 2, OB) = 4, rYQ) = Etna 74) (94) Sotution: 1%) peasy = Pl) P= Wig Bea P(B) = P(AB)+P(AB) Aa) ee 4A) - pay 1p ye disease ‘B’ correctly, cance that Doctor “D” wl ign cy tans rhe cho thas pen wiley Hstoatne alec de F wsis is 40% and the chance of death by wrong diagnosis is 70%. mi eer bh dongs ict What iste chance tht his dicate was cornice a rhaion: Let tbe the even the dor aly diagnoses nd B be the event the = P(Ay=06 P(A)=04 P(B/A)= 0.4 pe]a)=07 ‘we have to find P(.4/B) ss rayP(aia) ay myesthooem M0) = ry aaray = Ca) AA) 06x04 DIATE, “Texod+04x07 0244028 52° 13 iz, 8, ,8,,8, and S, 1h A cmp hast peer eta os 8,8, ceasoatiote 20%, 20% , 2800, and 22 % of the tol Sa ape ae aa eas eae ie dec ial pe eee te ‘the proability that the unit so selected has come from either S, or S, WWW .STMARYSMBA.CO.NA“0 Busi Solution : Let D be the event of choosing defective i “4 P(S,)=0.30 PUDIS,) ae P(S;) = 0.20 ; EXERCISE 14 Oey is Define probability of an event. Give two examples s Explain the following terms with iustration ) Mutually exclusive events {i Mutually exclusive av exhaustive events (ii) Independent events a ete Aadition and multiplication theorems on probability Mlustarte them (S)D(DIS,) ‘by means af an example Tefine conditional probability State the theorem of compound probability. b AS, P(S,/D)+ (5, /D)= oe = —_0510140.228 04 03x,0140.2x.02 +0.28x 03+. 22¥.04 ity ofa total greater than 5, two dice are thrawn. Find the probs! ‘Three dice are thrown. Find the probability of geting a total greater than 15. 1k card is drawn from a well-shuifed pack of 52 cards;find the probability that the card drawn is fece card $A number is chosen out of the numbers (1,2,3..... 100) {jy What isthe prosbilty that itis a square number: (Gt) What is the probbility that its a multiple of er 7? ' black and 6 red balls, A ball is drawn at random. sat is rod of white 7 9. Abag contains 4 white ‘What 1s tne piobsbility 10, Atbag contains 6 balck and 5 red balls. Two balls are drawn at raniom ‘What is the probability hat they are ofthe same cofo 1: Acommitee of 45 to be formed out of 5 chartered accountants, 4 cost apcountants and 3 enginoers. What isthe probability that thatthe committee contains (i) alleast one enginecr, and (i) an engineer and a cost accountant ? 3 out oF d shots w 12, A petson is Known to hit the tar is known to hit 2 out of 3 shots when they both shoot 13. The probability that 3 students A,B and C can solve a proble 1/5. A problem is given (o 3 students. What isthe chance that, (i the problem i solved (i only one solves the problem ? 1A. The odd against student x slving a Busines Statistics problem are (2 6 and the odds in favour ofy solving the same problem are 14 to 16 {@) What isthe chance that the problem will be solve if ou oy 2 {Gy What is Ihe probability that they both, working independently of cach other, solve the problem ? tii) What isthe probability that neither solves the problem 7 ind the probability of the tar WWW .STMARYSMBA.CO.NA