Research Liquified Natural Gas Market in Europe Februar 2011
Research Liquified Natural Gas Market in Europe Februar 2011
Liquefaction
47%
Regasification
15%
Shipping
38%
Source: Palm, Thomas Fredrik, The future of LNG in Europe and the
potential impact on the market power of the gas suppliers, May 2007
Exhibit 2 Exhibit 3
2009 EU Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel 2009 Share of Natural Gas in Primary Energy Consumption (%)
50%
Others Oil 45%
1% 36%
40%
Renewables 35%
9%
30%
24%
25%
Nuclear
Electricity 20%
14%
Natural Gas 15%
24% 10%
Solid Fossil
Fuels 5%
16% 0%
KL UK HJ TR IT RO IE BE LV LT LU SK EU ES AT DE DK CZ PT FR SI PL BG GR PI CH EE SE Source: 2010
Source: 2010 Eurogas Statistical Report, The European Union of the
Natural Gas Industry Eurogas Statistical Report, The European Union of the Natural Gas Industry
Exhibit 4 Exhibit 5
2009 Net Imports to EU27 from Non-EU 2009 Breakdown of EU27 LNG Supplies
Countries by Type of Transport
Algeria
Others* Libya
<1% Oman 1% 30%
Pipeline 3%
81% Norway
3%
Trinidad
Tobago Qatar
10% 25%
LNG
*Including Egypt
19% 11%
supplies from
sources which
cannot be Nigeria
identified 17%
Source: 2010 Eurogas Statistical Report, The European Union of the Source: 2010 Eurogas Statistical Report, The European Union of the
Natural Gas Industry Natural Gas Industry
Exhibit 6
2009 LNG Supplies in EU27
(LNG Net Imports)
2500
2000
(PJ - GCV)
1500
1000
500
0
EU27 Spain France UK Belgium Italy Portugal Greece
Source: 2010 Eurogas Statistical Report, The European Union of the Natural
Gas Industry
Note: PJ –GCV (1 PJ GCV = 25.6 million m3 gas )
Exhibits 7a and 7b show the current existing, proposed, approved and under construction
liquefaction and regasification facilities across Europe. Europe has made massive investments
in LNG terminals in recent years and will continue to do so in order to boost purchase of LNG
as it seeks to reduce dependence on gas piped from Russia and Algeria. Amid rising import
demand, more regasification terminals in Europe are needed to broaden connection with the
Middle East. The Middle East is expected to become the fastest growing LNG exporter in the
coming years. The region has vast gas reserves that can supply East Asia, Europe and North
America. Specifically, Qatar is expected to continue to aggressively expand exports. Europe is
adding about 65 billion in LNG import capacity with more than 150 billion of new capacity in the
10
planning stages. In the past, the ability to move more LNG to European markets has been
constrained by a lack of access to regasification capacity due to the number of available
terminals as well as the existence of long-term capacity rights held by a small number of
11
industry participants.
In May 2009 South Hook facility opened in the UK as Europe’s biggest terminal with
provisional capacity of 10.5 billion m³. The second development stage will mean twice this
amount can be delivered. This brings the annual transmission capacity of regasification
12
terminals in Europe (including Turkey) to around 130.6 billion m³. More terminals in Belgium,
13
France, Italy, Spain and the UK will be taken into service in the next few years. The transport
of LNG by road tankers is also well developed. NGVA Europe envisages an LNG Blue
Corridor, a road offering several LNG refueling possibilities for heavy vehicles, along the
14
Mediterranean coast.
10 Europe May Boost LNG Imports to Bypass Russian and Algerian Gas,
http://www.lngworldnews.com/europe-may-boost-lng-imports-to-bypass-russian-and-algerian-gas/; June 9th, 2010
11LNG in Europe, An Overview of European Import Terminals; King & Spalding, 2006
12 Nominal regasification capacity
13 Gas glut reaches Europe, Deutsche Bank Research, July 8, 2010
14 LNG Corridors the Right Solution for Europe, NGVA Europe, January 10, 2011
4 RREEF Research
Exhibit 7a
LNG Marine Terminals – Europe (Map A)
Antifer (La Poterie-Cap-d’Antifer), Upper Normandy Netherlands Zeebreege (Fluxys LNG) + Expansion
Conoco Philips-Essent, Eemshaven
Montoir-de-Bretagne + Expansion, Pays de la Loire Belgium
Port of Zeebreege, Exmar
Le Verdon (Le Verdon-sur-Mer), Aquitaine
Dunkerque, Nord-Pas-de-Calais
Bilbao, Vizcaya Province
Fos sur Mer, Fos Cavaou
Gijón + Espansion, Northern Asturias Region
France Fos sur Mer, Port of Marseille
Regansoa LNG, El Ferrol LNG/Mugardos, La Coruña Province Fos sur Mer, Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur
Proposed
Sagunto, Valencia Province
Under Construction
Cartegena + Expansion, Murcia Province
Approved
Huelva + Expansion(s), Huelva Province
Exhibit 7b
LNG Marine Terminals – Europe (Map B)
Sweden Estonia
Germany
Poland
(Endesa), Treiste, Province of Treiste & Muggia, Province of Treiste
Ukraine
(Eni) Approximate Location, Central or Northern Adriatic Sea
North Adriatic LNG Project, Rovigo, Province of Rovigo Approximate Location, Offshore Le Marche Region
La Spezia, Panigaglia, Province of La Spezia
Krk Island (Adria LNG) Approximate Location, Black Sea
Rosig nano Maritomo, Province of Liverno
Slovenia
Romania
Livorno, Province of Liverno Croatia Constanta, Black Sea
Taranto, Taranto Province
Castiglione della Pescaia, Province of Grosseto
Brindisi + Expansion, Province of Brindisi
Livorno OLT Cross Gas Italy Albania Approximate Location, Fier Region
Approximate location, between Sicily and Naples Sicily Approximate Location, Aliaga LNG, Gulf of Izmir
Offshore Porto Empedocle, Province of Agrigento Revythoussa + Expansion
Coriligliano Calabro, Province of Calabria
Priolo Gargalio-Augusta, Province of Syracuse, Island of Sicily San Ferdinando, Province of Regio Calabria
Cyprus
Gioia Tauro, Province of Calabria
Vassikiko (aka Vasilikos)
Source: California Energy Commission, June 2010
RREEF Research 5
Globally there is nearly twice as much regasification capacity operating or under construction
compared to liquefaction capacity. This imbalance is likely to remain an ongoing feature of the
LNG trade despite an unprecedented expansion in liquefaction capacity in global LNG markets
15
in 2009. According to Dealogic, the $18.3bn Papua New Guinea LNG development project
topped 2009 Project Finance deals. Exhibit 8 shows that a significant number of projects have
been completed in Poland, Netherlands and Russia over the past 5 years. Poland joined the
ever-growing list of countries importing Qatar’s LNG after signing a framework agreement with
Qatargas Operating Company in 2009. Polish state-controlled oil and natural gas company
PGNiG will be provided with approximately 1 million tonnes of LNG annually by Qatargas. The
issue of Poland's gas supply diversification intensified after the row between Ukraine and
Russia over prices which resulted in reduced gas deliveries to some eastern and southern
European states. Exhibit 9 shows that a significant number of LNG projects are in the pipeline
for Russia, followed by Italy and the UK.
Exhibit 8 Exhibit 9
Closed LNG Projects for Europe LNG Projects in the Pipeline for Europe
January 1, 2006 - December 31, 2010 16,000
3,000 14,000
2,500 12,000
(In $Millions) 10,000
(In $Millions)
2,000
8,000
1,500
6,000
1,000
4,000
500 2,000
0 0
Poland Netherlands Russion France SpainGreece Italy Multi Russion Italy United Romania France Poland Germany Spain Moldova
Federation Western Federation Kingdom
Europe
Note: Project finance and non project finance LNG deals Countries Note: Project finance and non project finance LNG deals
Source: Dealogic Projectware, January 2011 Source: Dealogic Projectware, January 2011
Demand for LNG, however, can be hindered by growing demand from other regions around
the world. Depleting North American gas reserves and rapid economic growth in China may
redirect gas supply from Europe in the future, resulting in higher gas prices that can lead to
16
fuel substitution. Nevertheless, Europe has a substantial cost advantage due to its vicinity to
major suppliers. Ultimately, demand for LNG is expected to increase strongly both in absolute
number and relative to pipeline imports over the coming years.
Conclusion
A strong need exists for LNG infrastructure investment in Europe. From a supply perspective,
European indigenous gas production is declining and security of supply is a big concern for the
region. Currently, Algeria, Russia and Norway supply 53% of EU27’s natural gas supply. An
increase in LNG imports from new suppliers would reduce the current supplier’s market power.
Moreover, LNG infrastructure offers great flexibility to the region because it is possible to
18
change supplier or receiver without changing existing infrastructure.
Simultaneously, gas demand is expected to increase considerably for the region. Natural gas
is generally considered more profitable as a fuel for electricity generation. Gas fired power
19
plants also produce twice the electricity per ton of CO2 emitted compared to coal fired plants.
Going forward, the emergence of tradable pollution rights and continual declining costs
throughout the value chain can further underscore the demand for LNG. Moreover,
technological progress has made LNG competitive with pipelines on increasingly shorter
distances.
From a global perspective, LNG demand is expected to exceed supply growth in 2011, driven
primarily on the back of demand from the developing regions of Asia, the Middle East and Latin
20
America. Overall, LNG and gas markets are expected to tighten over the next few years.
Regionally, gas prices in Europe are expected to gradually start picking up again in 2014.
Given an assortment of supply and demand factors presented above, LNG is expected to play
an increasingly critical role in the development of energy markets across Europe going
forward.
17 LNG Blue Corridors the Right Solution for Europe, NGVA Europe, January 10, 2011
18 Palm, Thomas Fredrik, The future of LNG in Europe and the potential impact on the market power of the gas
suppliers, May 2007
19 Palm, Thomas Fredrik, The future of LNG in Europe and the potential impact on the market power of the gas
suppliers, May 2007
20 Global LNG demand to exceed supply in 2011, Platts, January 12, 2011
RREEF Research 7
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