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Binomial, Poisson, and Normal Distributions

Binomial, Poisson, And Normal Distributions

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105 views

Binomial, Poisson, and Normal Distributions

Binomial, Poisson, And Normal Distributions

Uploaded by

Mark
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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SMARTLY

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

BINOMIAL, POISSON, AND NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS

Probability Distribution Families

Probability distribution family: A way to model a group of


situations that show similar predictable patterns. Every probability
distribution family has a set of conditions that a situation must meet
in order to be modeled with that distribution.
Outcome of interest: The particular outcome in a probability
distribution whose probability you’re trying to find, often denoted
as k.
Parameter: A value that relates a probability distribution family
Predicting outcomes of a dice roll
to a specific situation. It tells us how to tweak the distribution to with the discrete uniform distribution
properly model this situation. family. P(X = x) =1/k

Probability distribution function: A formula that uses the values


of a specific situation’s parameters to tell us the probability of an
outcome of interest.

Binomial Distributions

Binomial distribution: The spread of successes in independent


yes/no experiments that have a constant probability.
Trial: An independent experiment with only two possible outcomes.
The number of total trials in a binomial distribution is written as n.
Success: The desired outcome of a trial. The number of successes
you’re interested in is often written as k.
Binomial random variable: A random variable with n independent Binomial distribution with n=10 trials
trials with two outcomes (success/failure) where the probability of and a p=70% chance of success on
each trial.
success for each trial is constant.
n x p: The mean of a binomial distribution is the total number of
trials multiplied by the probability of success on each trial.

©2016
©2015 Pedago, LLC. All rights reserved
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS SMARTLY
SMARTLY

Poisson Distributions

Poisson distribution: A probability distribution family used to model


the probability of events in a fixed interval that occur at a known
average rate.

Lambda, l: The Poisson distribution’s only parameter—the average


rate of events per fixed interval. Lambda is also the mean of a
Poisson distribution.

The Poisson distribution has four conditions: your random variable Poisson distributions with l=1, l=4,
is discrete and infinite, there is a known average success rate in the and l=10.
fixed interval, the successes are independent of each other, and it’s
not meaningful to talk about failure rate.

Introduction to Normal Distributions

Normal distribution: A commonly used continuous probability


distribution known for its bell-shaped, unimodal, symmetric curve.
Often used to model natural population phenomena like heights,
lengths, and weights.

The mean, m, and the standard deviation, s, are the two


parameters that define a normal curve.

Cumulative probability: The probability of a range of values, used


when dealing with continuous distributions.

Central Limit Theorem (CLT): The distribution of the means


of many samples from a population will be roughly normally
distributed, even if the underlying population distribution is not
normal.

The Empirical Rule

Empirical rule: If a data set is normally distributed, 68% of the data


will fall within one standard deviation from the mean. Also called
the 68-95-99.7 rule, since 95% of the data falls within two standard
deviations of the mean, and 99.7% of the data falls within three.
You can use the Empirical rule in reverse to determine if a trend is
normally distributed by measuring how much of the data is within
one standard deviation of the mean.

©2016
©2015 Pedago, LLC. All rights reserved
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS SMARTLY
SMARTLY

Z-Scores and the Standard Normal Distribution

Z-score: In a normal distribution, this score tells us how many


standard deviations a value is from the mean.

Z-score formula: To calculate the Z-score for a value of X, subtract


the mean from X and then divide by the standard deviation.

Z = (X – m) ÷ s

Standard normal distribution: A normal distribution with a mean of


0 and a standard deviation of 1. Z-scores let us convert any normal
distribution to the standard one. Finding the cumulative probability of
values greater than Z=1.50.
Z-table: Allows us to find the cumulative probability associated with
a Z-score. The first column shows the first two digits of a Z-score,
and the top row shows its second decimal.

Cumulative Z-table: Gives the cumulative probability for values


less than Z.

Cumulative from mean Z-table: Gives the cumulative probability


for values between 0 and Z.

Complementary cumulative Z-table: Gives the cumulative


probability for values greater than Z.

Cumulative Z-tables are the only ones that have values for both
positive and negative Z-scores. Sometimes, you will have to be
creative with which Z-score and Z-table you use to find a specific
value.

©2016
©2015 Pedago, LLC. All rights reserved

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