CHAPTER 2

PROBABILITY

Dr Fik_2017
Terminology
Probability is a measure that is associated with how certain we are of outcomes of a particular experiment or
activity.

An experiment is a planned operation carried out under controlled conditions. If the result is not
predetermined, then the experiment is said to be a chance experiment. Flipping one fair coin twice is an
example of an experiment.

A result of an experiment is called an outcome. The sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible
outcomes.

Three ways to represent a sample space are: to list the possible outcomes, to create a tree diagram, or to
create a Venn diagram. The uppercase letter S is used to denote the sample space. For example, if you flip
one fair coin, S = {H, T} where H = heads and T = tails are the outcomes.

An event is any combination of outcomes. Upper case letters like A and B represent events. For example, if
the experiment is to flip one fair coin, event A might be getting at most one head. The probability of an event
A is written P(A).
The probability of any outcome is the long-term relative frequency of that outcome. Probabilities are
between zero and one, inclusive (that is, zero and one and all numbers between these values). P(A) = 0
means the event A can never happen.

P(A) = 1 means the event A always happens. P(A) = 0.5 means the event A is equally likely to occur or not
to occur. For example, if you flip one fair coin repeatedly (from 20 to 2,000 to 20,000 times) the relative
frequency of heads approaches 0.5 (the probability of heads).

Equally likely means that each outcome of an experiment occurs with equal probability. For example, if you
toss a fair, six-sided die, each face (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6) is as likely to occur as any other face. If you toss a
fair coin, a Head (H) and a Tail (T) are equally likely to occur. If you randomly guess the answer to a
true/false question on an exam, you are equally likely to select a correct answer or an incorrect answer.
To calculate the probability of an event A when all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely,
count the number of outcomes for event A and divide by the total number of outcomes in the sample space.

For example, if you toss a fair dime and a fair nickel, the sample space is {HH, TH, HT, TT} where T = tails
and H = heads. The sample space has four outcomes. A = getting one head. There are two outcomes that
meet this condition {HT, TH}, so P(A) = 2/4 = 0.5.
Suppose you roll one fair six-sided die, with the numbers {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} on its faces. Let event E =
rolling a number that is at least five. There are two outcomes {5, 6}. P(E) = 2/6. If you were to roll the die
only a few times, you would not be surprised if your observed results did not match the probability. If you
were to roll the die a very large number of times, you would expect that, overall, 2/6 of the rolls would
result in an outcome of "at least five". You would not expect exactly 2/6.

This important characteristic of probability experiments is known as the law of large numbers which
states that as the number of repetitions of an experiment is increased, the relative frequency obtained in
the experiment tends to become closer and closer to the theoretical probability. Even though the
outcomes do not happen according to any set pattern or order, overall, the long-term observed relative
frequency will approach the theoretical probability. (The word empirical is often used instead of the word
observed.)
"OR" Event:
An outcome is in the event A OR B if the outcome is in A or is in B or is in both A and B. For example, let A
= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} and B = {4, 5, 6, 7, 8}. A OR B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8}. Notice that 4 and 5 are NOT listed
twice.

“U”
"AND" Event:
An outcome is in the event A AND B if the outcome is in both A and B at the same time. For example, let A and
B be {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} and {4, 5, 6, 7, 8}, respectively. Then A AND B = {4, 5}.

The complement of event A is denoted A′. A′ consists of all outcomes that are NOT in A. Notice that P(A) +
P(A′) = 1.

For example, let S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and let A = {1, 2, 3, 4}. Then, A′ = {5, 6}. P(A) = 4/6 , P(A′) = 2/6, and
P(A) + P(A′) = 4/6 +2/6 = 1
The conditional probability of A given B is written P(A|B). P(A|B) is the probability that event A will occur
given that the event B has already occurred. A conditional reduces the sample space. We calculate the
probability of A from the reduced sample space B. The formula to calculate P(A|B) is P(A|B) = P(A AND B)
P(B) where P(B) is greater than zero.

For example, suppose we toss one fair, six-sided die. The sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Let A = face is 2
or 3 and B = face is even (2, 4, 6). To calculate P(A|B), we count the number of outcomes 2 or 3 in the sample
space B = {2, 4, 6}. Then we divide that by the number of outcomes B (rather than S).

We get the same result by using the formula. Remember that S has six outcomes.
It is important to read each problem carefully to think about and understand what the events are.

Understanding the wording is the first very important step in solving probability problems. Reread the
problem several times if necessary.

Clearly identify the event of interest. Determine whether there is a condition stated in the wording that would
indicate that the probability is conditional; carefully identify the condition, if any.
GAME 1

The sample space S is the whole numbers starting at 1 and less than 20.
Independent and Mutually 
Exclusive Events
Independent and mutually exclusive do not mean the same thing.
Independent Events
Two events are independent if the following are true:
• P(A|B) = P(A)
• P(B|A) = P(B)
• P(A AND B) = P(A)P(B)

Two events A and B are independent if the knowledge that one occurred does not affect the chance the
other occurs. For example, the outcomes of two roles of a fair die are independent events. The outcome of
the first roll does not change the probability for the outcome of the second roll. To show two events are
independent, you must show only one of the above conditions. If two events are NOT independent, then we
say that they are dependent.
Sampling may be done with replacement or without replacement.

• With replacement: If each member of a population is replaced after it is picked, then that member has the
possibility of being chosen more than once. When sampling is done with replacement, then events are
considered to be independent, meaning the result of the first pick will not change the probabilities for the
second pick.

• Without replacement: When sampling is done without replacement, each member of a population may be
chosen only once. In this case, the probabilities for the second pick are affected by the result of the first pick.
The events are considered to be dependent or not independent.

If it is not known whether A and B are independent or dependent, assume they are dependent until you
can show otherwise.
Mutually Exclusive Events
A and B are mutually exclusive events if they cannot occur at the same time. This means that A and B do
not share any outcomes and P(A AND B) = 0.

For example, suppose the sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}. Let A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}, B = {4, 5, 6,
7, 8}, and C = {7, 9}. A AND B = {4, 5}. P(A AND B) = 2/10 and is not equal to zero. Therefore, A and B are
not mutually exclusive. A and C do not have any numbers in common so P(A AND C) = 0. Therefore, A and
C are mutually exclusive.

If it is not known whether A and B are mutually exclusive, assume they are not until you can show
otherwise. The following examples illustrate these definitions and terms.
EXAMPLE
Flip two fair coins.
The sample space is {HH, HT, TH, TT} where T = tails and H = heads. The outcomes are HH, HT, TH, and TT. The
outcomes HT and TH are different. The HT means that the first coin showed heads and the second coin showed
tails. The TH means that the first coin showed tails and the second coin showed heads.

• Let A = the event of getting at most one tail. (At most one tail means zero or one tail.) Then A can be written as
{HH, HT, TH}. The outcome HH shows zero tails. HT and TH each show one tail.

• Let B = the event of getting all tails. B can be written as {TT}. B is the complement of A, so B = A′. Also,
P(A) + P(B) = P(A) + P(A′) = 1.

• The probabilities for A and for B are P(A) = 3/4 and P(B) = 1/4

• Let C = the event of getting all heads. C = {HH}. Since B = {TT}, P(B AND C) = 0. B and C are mutually exclusive.
(B and C have no members in common because you cannot have all tails and all heads at the same time.)

• Let D = event of getting more than one tail. D = {TT}. P(D) = 1/4

• Let E = event of getting a head on the first roll. (This implies you can get either a head or tail on the second roll.)
E = {HT, HH}. P(E) = 2/4

• Find the probability of getting at least one (one or two) tail in two flips. Let F = event of getting at least one
tail in two flips. F = {HT, TH, TT}. P(F) = 3/4
EXAMPLE 

Let event G = taking a math class. Let event H = taking a science class. Then, G AND H = taking a math
class and a science class. Suppose P(G) = 0.6, P(H) = 0.5, and P(G AND H) = 0.3. Are G and H
independent?

If G and H are independent, then you must show ONE of the following:

• P(G|H) = P(G)
• P(H|G) = P(H)
• P(G AND H) = P(G)P(H)

a. Show that P(G|H) = P(G).

b. Show P(G AND H) = P(G)P(H).

Note
The choice you make depends on the information you have. You could choose any of the methods
here because you have the necessary information.
a. Show that P(G|H) = P(G).

Solution
P(G|H) = P(G AND H)/P(H) = 0.3/0.5 = 0.6 = P(G)
b. Show P(G AND H) = P(G)P(H).

Solution
P(G)P(H) = (0.6)(0.5) = 0.3 = P(G AND H)
Since G and H are independent, knowing that a person is taking a science class does not change the chance
that he or she is taking a math class. If the two events had not been independent (that is, they are dependent)
then knowing that a person is taking a science class would change the chance he or she is taking math.
Two Basic Rules of Probability
The Multiplication Rule
The Addition Rule
The Multiplication Rule
If A and B are two events defined on a sample space, then: P(A AND B) = P(B)P(A|B).

This rule may also be written as: P(A|B) = P(A AND B)/P(B)

(The probability of A given B equals the probability of A and B divided by the probability of B.)

If A and B are independent, then P(A|B) = P(A). Then P(A AND B) = P(A|B)P(B) becomes P(A AND B) = P(A)P(B).
The Addition Rule
If A and B are defined on a sample space, then: P(A OR B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A AND B).

If A and B are mutually exclusive, then P(A AND B) = 0. Then P(A OR B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A AND B) becomes
P(A OR B) = P(A) + P(B).
EXAMPLE

Husin is trying to choose where to go on vacation. His two choices are: A = New Zealand and B = Alaska

• Husin can only afford one vacation. The probability that he chooses A is P(A) = 0.6 and the probability that
he chooses B is P(B) = 0.35.

• P(A AND B) = 0 because Husin can only afford to take one vacation

• Therefore, the probability that he chooses either New Zealand or Alaska is P(A OR B) = P(A) + P(B) = 0.6
+ 0.35 = 0.95.

Note that the probability that he does not choose to go anywhere on vacation must be 0.05.
EXAMPLE

Haris plays college soccer. He makes a goal 65% of the time he shoots. Haris is going to attempt two goals in
a row in the next game. A = the event Haris is successful on his first attempt. P(A) = 0.65. B = the event Haris
is successful on his second attempt. P(B) = 0.65. Haris tends to shoot in streaks. The probability that he makes
the second goal GIVEN that he made the first goal is 0.90.

a. What is the probability that he makes both goals?

b. What is the probability that Carlos makes either the first goal or the second goal?
c. Are A and B independent?
d. Are A and B mutually exclusive?
Solution

a. What is the probability that he makes both goals?

The problem is asking you to find P(A AND B) = P(B AND A). Since P(B|A) = 0.90: P(B AND A) =
P(B|A) P(A) = (0.90)(0.65) = 0.585

Haris makes the first and second goals with probability 0.585.

b. What is the probability that Haris makes either the first goal or the second goal?
The problem is asking you to find P(A OR B).

P(A OR B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A AND B) = 0.65 + 0.65 - 0.585 = 0.715

Haris makes either the first goal or the second goal with probability 0.715.
c. Are A and B independent?
No, they are not, because P(B AND A) = 0.585.

P(B)P(A) = (0.65)(0.65) = 0.423

0.423 ≠ 0.585 = P(B AND A)

So, P(B AND A) is not equal to P(B)P(A).

d. Are A and B mutually exclusive?

No, they are not because P(A and B) = 0.585.

To be mutually exclusive, P(A AND B) must equal zero.

Exercise 2

A community swim team has 150 members. Seventy‐five of the members are advanced swimmers. Forty‐
seven of the members are intermediate swimmers. The remainder are novice swimmers. Forty of the
advanced swimmers practice four times a week. Thirty of the intermediate swimmers practice four times a
week. Ten of the novice swimmers practice four times a week. Suppose one member of the swim team is
chosen randomly.

a. What is the probability that the member is a novice swimmer?

b. What is the probability that the member practices four times a week?
c. What is the probability that the member is an advanced swimmer and practices four times a week?
d. What is the probability that a member is an advanced swimmer and an intermediate swimmer? Are being
an advanced swimmer and an intermediate swimmer mutually exclusive? Why or why not?
e. Are being a novice swimmer and practicing four times a week independent events? Why or why not?
Tree Diagrams
A tree diagram is a special type of graph used to determine the outcomes of an experiment. It consists of
"branches" that are labelled with either frequencies or probabilities. Tree diagrams can make some probability
problems easier to visualize and solve.

The following example illustrates how to use a tree diagram.

EXAMPLE

In an urn, there are 11 balls. Three balls are red (R) and eight balls are blue (B). Draw two balls, one at a time,
with replacement.

"With replacement" means that you put the first ball back in the urn before you select the second ball. The tree diagram using
frequencies that show all the possible outcomes follows.

a. List the 24 BR outcomes: B1R1, B1R2, B1R3, ...

b. Using the tree diagram, calculate P(RR).
c. Using the tree diagram, calculate P(RB OR BR).
d. Using the tree diagram, calculate P(R on 1st draw AND B on 2nd draw).
e. P(R on 2nd draw GIVEN B on 1st draw) = P(R on 2nd|B on 1st).
f. Using the tree diagram, calculate P(BB).
g. Using the tree diagram, calculate P(B on the 2nd draw given R on the first draw).
In an urn, there are 11 balls. Three balls are red (R) and eight balls are blue (B). Draw two balls, one at a time,
with replacement.
The first set of branches represents the first draw. The second set of branches represents the second draw.
Each of the outcomes is distinct. In fact, we can list each red ball as R1, R2, and R3 and each blue ball as B1,
B2, B3, B4, B5, B6, B7, and B8. Then the nine RR outcomes can be written as:

R1R1; R1R2; R1R3; R2R1; R2R2; R2R3; R3R1; R3R2; R3R3

The other outcomes are similar.

There are a total of 11 balls in the urn. Draw two balls, one at a time, with replacement. There are 11(11) = 121
outcomes, the size of the sample space.
a. List the 24 BR outcomes: B1R1, B1R2, B1R3, ...

Solution
a. B1R1; B1R2; B1R3; B2R1; B2R2; B2R3; B3R1; B3R2; B3R3; B4R1; B4R2; B4R3; B5R1; B5R2; B5R3;
B6R1;B6R2; B6R3; B7R1; B7R2; B7R3; B8R1; B8R2; B8R3

b. Using the tree diagram, calculate P(RR).

Solution
b. P(RR) =(3/11)(3/11) = 9/121
c. Using the tree diagram, calculate P(RB OR BR).

Solution
c. P(RB OR BR) = (3/11)(8/11) + (8/11)(3/11)= 48/121

d. Using the tree diagram, calculate P(R on 1st draw AND B on 2nd draw).

Solution
d. P(R on 1st draw AND B on 2nd draw) = P(RB) = (3/11)(8/11) = 24/121
e. Using the tree diagram, calculate P(R on 2nd draw GIVEN B on 1st draw).

Solution
P(R on 2nd draw GIVEN B on 1st draw) = P(R on 2nd|B on 1st) = 24/88 = 3/11

This problem is a conditional one. The sample space has been reduced to those outcomes that already have a blue
on the first draw. There are 24 + 64 = 88 possible outcomes (24 BR and 64 BB). Twenty‐four of the 88 possible
outcomes are BR. 24/88 = 3/11 .

f. Using the tree diagram, calculate P(BB).

Solution

f. P(BB) = 64/121
g. Using the tree diagram, calculate P(B on the 2nd draw given R on the first draw).

Solution
g. P(B on 2nd draw|R on 1st draw) = 8/11

There are 9 + 24 outcomes that have R on the first draw (9 RR and 24 RB).
The sample space is then 9 + 24 = 33.

24 of the 33 outcomes have B on the second draw. The probability is then 24/33 .
EXAMPLE
An urn has three red marbles and eight blue marbles in it. Draw two marbles, one at a time, this time without 
replacement, from the urn. "Without replacement" means that you do not put the first ball back before you select 
the second marble. Following is a tree diagram for this situation. 

The branches are labelled with probabilities instead of frequencies. The numbers at the ends of the branches are 
calculated by multiplying the numbers on the two corresponding branches, for example, 
NOTE:
If you draw a red on the first draw from the three red possibilities, there are two red marbles left to draw on
the second draw. You do not put back or replace the first marble after you have drawn it. You draw without
replacement, so that on the second draw there are ten marbles left in the urn.

Calculate the following probabilities using the tree diagram.

a. P(RR) = ________

b. Fill in the blanks:

c. P(R on 2nd|B on 1st) =
d. Fill in the blanks.

e. Find P(BB).

f. Find P(B on 2nd|R on 1st).
Venn Diagrams
A Venn diagram is a picture that represents the outcomes of an experiment. It generally consists of a box that
represents the sample space S together with circles or ovals. The circles or ovals represent events.
Example
Example
Example
THANK YOU