NO.

JAPAN INTERNATIONAL DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF HIGHWAYS

COOPERATION AGENCY (JICA) MINISTRY OF PUBLIC WORKS

THE STUDY
ON
PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP     SCHEME
FOR
TRANS JAVA TOLL ROAD
IN
THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

FINAL REPORT

MAIN TEXT

JANUARY 2007

SD
JR
07-09
 PREFACE

In response to a request from the Government of the Republic of Indonesia, the

Government of Japan decided to conduct “The Study on Public-Private Partnership (PPP)
Scheme for Trans Java Toll Road in the Republic of Indonesia” and entrusted it to the
Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).

JICA selected and dispatched a Study Team headed by Dr. Hani Abdel-Halim of Katahira
& Engineers International from April 2006 and January 2007. The team held discussions
with the officials concerned of the Ministry of Public Works as well as other officials
concerned, and conducted field surveys, data analysis and PPP financial scheme. Upon
returning to Japan, the team prepared this final report to summarize the results of the
study.

I hope that this report will contribute to development in the Republic of

Indonesia, and to the enhancement of friendly relationship between our two countries.

Finally, I wish to express my sincere appreciation to the officials concerned of

the Government of the Republic of Indonesia for their close cooperation extended to the
Study Team.

January 2007,

Kazuhisa MATSUOKA,
Vice President
Japan International Cooperation Agency
Mr. Kazuhisa MATSUOKA,
Vice President
Japan International Cooperation Agency

January 2007

Dear Sir,

Letter of Transmittal

We are pleased to submit herewith the Final Report of “The Study on Public-Private
Partnership (PPP) Scheme for Trans Java Toll Road in the Republic of Indonesia”. The
report compiles the results of the Study and includes the advices and suggestions of the
authorities concerned of the Government of Japan and your agency as well as the
comments made by the Ministry of Public Works and other authorities concerned in the
Republic of Indonesia.

The report includes review of previous feasibility study on the study road, and analyses
the present and future road network conditions and demand of transport in Java Island.
Revised cost estimate and transport demand are applied for the economic evaluation and
financial analysis of six established PPP options. An optimum PPP scheme is
recommended based on a comprehensive evaluation and assessment process that takes
into consideration the pros and cons of each option and the minimum financial
requirements by the Government of Indonesia. In addition, bidding guidelines and
implementation plan are included for the smooth and on-schedule implementation of the
toll road project.

We wish to take this opportunity to express our sincere gratitude to your agency and the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs. We also wish to express our deep gratitude to the Ministry of
Public Works as well as other Governmental Agencies concerned in the Republic of
Indonesia for the close cooperation and assistance extended to us during the Study. We
hope this report will contribute to the development of the Republic of Indonesia.

Very truly yours,

Dr. Hani Abdel-Halim

Team Leader,
The Study on Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Scheme for
Trans Java Toll Road in the Republic of Indonesia
LOCATION MAP
TABLE OF CONTENTS

Preface
Letter of Transmittal
Location Map
Abbreviations
Page

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND......................................................................................................... 1-1

1.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY ................................................................................ 1-2
1.3 STUDY CORRIDOR .................................................................................................. 1-2
1.4 SCOPE OF THE STUDY ........................................................................................... 1-2
1.5 SCHEDULE OF THE STUDY ................................................................................... 1-4
1.6 ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY .......................................................................... 1-4

PART I: YOGYAKARTA – SOLO – KERTOSONO TOLL ROAD DEVELOPMENT

CHAPTER 2 DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT

2.1 BACKGROUND OF THE PROJECT ...................................................................... 2-1

2.2 OBJECTIVE OF THE PROJECT ............................................................................. 2-2
2.3 NECESSITY OF THE PROJECT ............................................................................. 2-2
2.3.1 National Mid-Term Development Plan ........................................................ 2-2
2.3.2 Infrastructure Road Map ............................................................................... 2-4
2.4 SOCIOECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS IN PROJECT AREA .......................... 2-7
2.4.1 Population ..................................................................................................... 2-7
2.4.2 Economy ....................................................................................................... 2.7
2.4.3 Socioeconomic Framework .......................................................................... 2-9
2.5 ROAD NETWORK DEVELOPMENT .................................................................... 2-10
2.5.1 Arterial Road Network Development ........................................................... 2-10
2.5.2 Toll Road Development ................................................................................ 2-11
2.5.3 Indonesia Highway Corporation ................................................................... 2-15
2.6 TRANS JAVA TOLL ROAD ..................................................................................... 2-16
2.7 MAJOR COMPONENTS OF THE PROJECT ......................................................... 2-18
2.8 EFFECTS OF TOLL ROAD PROJECT ................................................................... 2-21
2.8.1 Direct Effects ................................................................................................ 2-21
2.8.2 Regional Effects ........................................................................................... 2-22

CHAPTER 3 TRAFFIC SURVEY AND DEMAND FORECAST

3.1 OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................................. 3-1

3.2 TRAFFIC SURVEY .................................................................................................. 3-1
3.2.1 Survey Method ............................................................................................. 3-1
3.2.2 Results of Traffic Survey .............................................................................. 3-3
3.3 DEMAND FORECAST ............................................................................................ 3-7
3.3.1 Basic Policy .................................................................................................. 3-7
3.3.2 OD Zoning System ....................................................................................... 3-7
3.3.3 Present and Future Trip Pattern .................................................................... 3-8

-i-
3.4 FUTURE TRAFFIC VOLUMES .............................................................................. 3-9
3.4.1 Basic Policy .................................................................................................. 3-9
3.4.2 Traffic Assignment Procedure ...................................................................... 3-9
3.4.3 Future Traffic Volume ................................................................................... 3-14

CHAPTER 4 COST ESTIMATION AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

4.1 REVIEW OF PROJECT COST ................................................................................ 4-1

4.1.1 Construction Cost ......................................................................................... 4-2
4.1.2 Land Acquisition Cost .................................................................................. 4-3
4.2 REVISED PROJECT COST ..................................................................................... 4-6
4.2.1 Major Items for Cost Estimate ...................................................................... 4-6
4.2.2 Review of Bridge Construction Cost ............................................................ 4-8
4.3 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS .......................................................................................... 4-11
4.3.1 Review of F/S Economic Analysis ............................................................... 4-11
4.3.2 Revised Economic Analysis ......................................................................... 4-14
4.3.3 Revised Economic Parameters ..................................................................... 4-15

PART II: FORMULATION OF PPP SCHEME

CHAPTER 5 OVERVIEW OF PPP

5.1 BENEFITS OF PROMOTING PPP............................................................................ 5-1

5.1.1 Definitions of PPPs......................................................................................... 5-1
5.1.2 Objectives of PPPs ....................................................................................... 5-3
5.1.3 Progress in PPPs ........................................................................................... 5-3
5.1.4 Survey of PPP Progress by Areas ................................................................. 5-7
5.1.5 Type of PPP .................................................................................................. 5-8
5.2 FACTORS FOR SUCCESS AND FAILURE FROM INTERNATIONAL
EXPERIENCES ........................................................................................................ 5-10
5.2.1 Road BOT Experiences in Asia .................................................................... 5-10
5.2.2 DBFO Road Experience in UK .................................................................... 5-12
5.2.3 Lessons Learned from International Experience:
Main Factors for Successful and Failed PPPs .............................................. 5-15

CHAPTER 6 REVIEW OF PPP ENVIRONMENT

6.1 REVIEW OF LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORK ........................................................ 6-1

6.1.1 Stages of Toll Road Financing ...................................................................... 6-1
6.1.2 Law and Regulation for Toll Road ............................................................... 6-1
6.1.3 Implementation Framework on Toll Road .................................................... 6-3
6.2 REVIEW OF ISSUES OF PREVIOUS ROAD BOT SCHEMES ............................ 6-9
6.2.1 Recent Toll Road Development Program ..................................................... 6-9
6.2.2 Issues of Previous Road BOT Schemes ........................................................ 6-11

- ii -
CHAPTER 7 STUDY ON PPP SCHEME

7.1 OPTIONS OF PROJECT SCHEME ......................................................................... 7-1

7.1.1 Objective to introduce PPP ........................................................................... 7-1
7.1.2 Options Considered ...................................................................................... 7-1
7.2 EVALUATION OF PPP OPTIONS ............................................................................ 7-4
7.3 PROJECT FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ........................................................................ 7-18
7.3.1 Scenario Setting and Major Assumptions ..................................................... 7-18
7.3.2 Results of Financial Study ............................................................................ 7-20
7.4 SUMMARY OF RESULTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................... 7-41
7.4.1 Pros and Cons Options ................................................................................... 7-41
7.4.2 Financial Evaluation ..................................................................................... 7-41
7.4.3 Sensitivity Analysis ........................................................................................ 7-42
7.4.4 Recommendations .......................................................................................... 7-47

PART III: RECOMMENDED PPP SCHEME AND IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

CHAPTER 8 RECOMMENDED PPP SCHEME

8.1 PPP SCHEME UNDER OPTION 6............................................................................ 8-1

8.1.1 Project Scheme ............................................................................................... 8-1
8.1.2 Evaluation on Option 6................................................................................... 8-3
8.2 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ON OPTION 6 .................................................................. 8-4
8.2.1 Scenario Setting and Major Assumptions....................................................... 8-4
8.2.2 Results of Financial Study.............................................................................. 8-6
8.3 PAYMENT MECHANISM ......................................................................................... 8-9
8.3.1 Upfront Payment ............................................................................................ 8-9
8.3.2 Service Payment ............................................................................................. 8-9
8.3.3 Required Subsidy Policy of MPW.................................................................. 8-11
8.4 SUBSIDY SCHEME................................................................................................... 8-11
8.4.1 Toll Road Investment Projects supported by Government ............................. 8-11
8.4.2 Infrastructure Policy Package in Indonesia .................................................... 8-12
8.5 MECHANISM OF PSO .............................................................................................. 8-13
8.5.1 Governing Law in Indonesia Concerning Application of PSO ...................... 8-13
8.5.2 Mechanism of PSO Application ..................................................................... 8-13
8.5.3 Implementation of PSO .................................................................................. 8-14
8.5.4 Aspects Required in regulating PSO .............................................................. 8-15
8.6 USE OF BLU .............................................................................................................. 8-15
8.7 WORK AND RISK SHARING .................................................................................. 8-15
8.7.1 Illustrative Work Sharing for Java Toll Road ................................................. 8-15
8.7.2 Illustrative Risk Sharing for Java Toll Road................................................... 8-17
8.7.3 General Risk Sharing...................................................................................... 8-17

CHAPTER 9 IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

9.1 DETAILED PLAN OF PUBLIC SECTOR TASKS ................................................... 9-1

9.1.1 Feasibility Study ............................................................................................. 9-1
9.1.2 Public Funding Arrangement.......................................................................... 9-1
9.1.3 Preparation of Tender Documents .................................................................. 9-1
9.1.4 Selection of PPP Company............................................................................. 9-2
9.1.5 Environmental Impact Assessment................................................................. 9-2

- iii -
 9.1.6 Land Acquisition of ROW.............................................................................. 9-2
9.1.7 Monitoring of Detailed Design and Construction .......................................... 9-3
9.1.8 Confirmation of Construction Completion..................................................... 9-3
9.2 DETAILED PLAN OF PRIVATE SECTOR TASKS.................................................. 9-3
9.2.1 Preparation of Tender ..................................................................................... 9-3
9.2.2 Detailed Design of Toll Road ......................................................................... 9-4
9.2.3 Construction of Toll Road .............................................................................. 9-4
9.3 DETAILED DESIGN OF TOLL ROAD..................................................................... 9-4
9.3.1 Organization ................................................................................................... 9-5
9.3.2 Toll Roads to be designed............................................................................... 9-5
9.3.3 Design Standards and Criteria ........................................................................ 9-6
9.3.4 Quality Assurance and Approval on Detailed Design .................................... 9-7
9.3.5 Change in Detailed Design ............................................................................. 9-8
9.3.6 The Detailed Design Schedule ....................................................................... 9-8
9.4 CONSTRUCTION OF TOLL ROAD......................................................................... 9-8
9.4.1 Organization ................................................................................................... 9-9
9.4.2 Scope of Construction Work........................................................................... 9-9
9.4.3 Construction Schedule.................................................................................... 9-10
9.4.4 Stage-by-Stage Construction .......................................................................... 9-10
9.4.5 Construction Supervision and Quality Assurance .......................................... 9-10
9.4.6 Change of Scope of Works ............................................................................. 9-11
9.4.7 Environmental Monitoring in Construction ................................................... 9-11
9.5 OVERALL IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE......................................................... 9-12

CHAPTER 10 MAINTENANCE AND OPERATION PLAN

10.1 MAINTENANCE PLAN ............................................................................................ 10-1

10.1.1 Maintenance System....................................................................................... 10-1
10.1.2 Inspection ....................................................................................................... 10-3
10.1.3 Maintenance Management.............................................................................. 10-4
10.1.4 Maintenance Work.......................................................................................... 10-6
10.1.5 Maintenance Criteria and Specifications ........................................................ 10-7
10.1.6 Monitoring/Quality Assurance ....................................................................... 10-8
10.2 OPERATION PLAN ................................................................................................... 10-8
10.2.1 Toll Collection Management .......................................................................... 10-9
10.2.2 Traffic Management Service .......................................................................... 10-10

CHAPTER 11 BIDDING GUIDELINES

11.1 OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................ 11-1

11.2 ROLE OF PPP CONTRACTOR................................................................................. 11-1
11.3 ROLE OF GOVERNMENT ....................................................................................... 11-2
11.4 OVERVIEW OF PAYMENT MECHANISM ............................................................. 11-2
11.5 PROCUREMENT PROCESS ..................................................................................... 11-4
11.6 TENDER EVALUATION ........................................................................................... 11-5
11.7 DIFFERENCES FROM CURRENT BIDDING DOCUMENTS ............................... 11-5

CHAPTER 12 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

12.1 CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................... 12-1

12.2 RECOMMENDATIONS............................................................................................. 12-5

- iv -
List of Tables

Page

Table 2.3-1 Performance Targets of National Road Development Scenarios ................... 2-4
Table 2.3-2 Annual Macroeconomic Indicators 2005 – 2009 ........................................... 2-5
Table 2.4-1 Population and Growth Rate .......................................................................... 2-7
Table 2.4-2 Trend of Economic Indicators........................................................................ 2-8
Table 2.4-3 Future Socioeconomic Growth Rates............................................................. 2-9
Table 2.7-1 Length of Study Road Segments.................................................................... 2-18

Table 3.2-1 Questionnaire Sheets (Sample) for WTP Survey............................................ 3-2

Table 3.2-2 Traffic Volume on the Study Section ............................................................ 3-4
Table 3.2-3 Traffic Volume on Tangelan-Merak Toll Road ............................................. 3-5
Table 3.2-4 Part of Summary Table of WTP Survey Result ............................................ 3-6
Table 3.4-1 Time Evaluation Value (Rp/hour) ................................................................. 3-11
Table 3.4-2 Observed and Assigned Traffic Volumes ...................................................... 3-12
Table 3.4-3 α and β for Diversion Rate ..................................................................... 3-14
Table 3.4-4 Growth of GRDP per Capita in Java Island (per year) ................................. 3-14
Table 3.4-5 Toll Rates of Existing Toll Roads ................................................................. 3-16
Table 3.4-6 Calculation Cases ......................................................................................... 3-17
Table 3.4-7 Future Traffic Volume of Case 1 ................................................................... 3-19
Table 3.4-8 Future Traffic Volume of Case 2 ................................................................... 3-20
Table 3.4-9 Future Traffic Volume of Case 3 ................................................................... 3-20

Table 4.1-1 F/S Construction Cost (Rp million)................................................................ 4-3

Table 4.1-2 Summary of Land Acquisition Cost ............................................................. 4-5
Table 4.2-1 Summary of Revised Project Cost (Rp million) ........................................... 4-9
Table 4.2-2 Number of Bridges and Boring Investigation Data ...................................... 4-10
Table 4.3-1 Economic Parameters of Economic Analysis ............................................... 4-12
Table 4.3-2 Main Items Applied in Economic Analysis .................................................. 4-13
Table 4.3-3 Case Set Up .................................................................................................. 4-14
Table 4.3-4 Economic Parameters (Yogyakarta – Kertosono) ......................................... 4-16
Table 4.3-5 Economic Parameters (Yogyakarta – Solo) .................................................. 4-16
Table 4.3-6 Economic Parameters (Solo - Kertosono) .................................................... 4-16
Table 4.3-7 Revised Sensitivity Analysis Result (Yogyakarta - Kertosono) ................... 4-18
Table 4.3-8 Revised Sensitivity Analysis Result (Yogyakarta - Solo) ............................. 4-19
Table 4.3-9 Revised Sensitivity Analysis Result (Solo - Kertosono) .............................. 4-20

Table 5.1-1 Summary of PPPs by Country and Sector in Europe ................................... 5-5
Table 5.1-2 Summary of PPP Institutional Development in Europe ............................... 5-6
Table 5.1-3 Summary of PPP Methods.............................................................................. 5-9
Table 5.2-1 Expressway BOT Concessions in Asia (as at ADB observation) ................. 5-11
Table 5.2-2 Operational Expressway BOT (as at ADB observation) .............................. 5-12

Table 6.1-1 Stages of Toll Road Financing ...................................................................... 6-1

Table 6.1-2 Toll Roads Laws and Regulations ................................................................ 6-2
Table 6.1-3 Toll Road Institutional Framework................................................................. 6-3
Table 6.1-4 Toll Road Provision Cycle.............................................................................. 6-4
Table 6.2-1 List of Toll Road Projects (1/2) .................................................................... 6-9
Table 6.2-1 List of Toll Road Projects (2/2) .................................................................... 6-10
Table 6.2-2 Tender Results of Batch I in June 2005 ........................................................ 6-11
Table 6.2-3 Tender Results of Batch II in October 2005 ................................................. 6-12
Table 6.2-4 Proposed Key Changes to the Concession Agreement (CA) under PPITA .. 6-13

-v-
Table 7.1-1 Outline of PPP Options ................................................................................. 7-2
Table 7.2-1 Evaluation of PPP Options ........................................................................... 7-11
Table 7.2-2 Comments from MPW .................................................................................. 7-13
Table 7.3-1 Assumption – Initial Investment Cost .......................................................... 7-19
Table 7.3-2 Assumption – Financing, OPEX, Depreciation & Tax ................................. 7-20
Table 7.3-3 Summary of Five Financial Results – Full Section (Jogjakarta – Kertosono) 7-21
Table 7.3-4 Financial Projections for Full Sections (Jogjakarta – Kertosono) .............. 7-23
Table 7.3-5 Financial Projections for Jogjakarta – Solo .................................................. 7-24
Table 7.3-6 Financial Projections for Solo – Kertosono .................................................. 7-25
Table 7.3-7 Financial Projection – Full Sections & Option 4 .......................................... 7-26
Table 7.3-8 Financial Projection – Full Sections & Option 5-1 ...................................... 7-27
Table 7.3-9 Financial Projection – Full Sections & Option 5-2 ...................................... 7-28
Table 7.3-10 Financial Projection – Full Sections – Option 6 ........................................... 7-29
Table 7.3-11 Financial Projection – Full Sections & Traditional Public Work with Operation
Outsourcing ………………………………………………………………... 7-30
Table 7.3-12 Financial Projection – Jogjakarta – Solo & Option 4 ................................... 7-31
Table 7.3-13 Financial Projection – Jogjakarta – Solo & Option 5-1 ................................ 7-32
Table 7.3-14 Financial Projection – Jogjakarta – Solo & Option 5-2 ................................ 7-33
Table 7.3-15 Financial projection – Jogjakarta – Solo & Option 6 ................................... 7-34
Table 7.3-16 Financial Projection – Jogjakarta – Solo & Traditional Public Work
with Operation Outsourcing ......................................................................... 7-35
Table 7.3-17 Financial Projection – Solo – Kertosono & Option 4 ................................... 7-36
Table 7.3-18 Financial Projection – Solo – Kertosono & Option 5-1 ............................... 7-37
Table 7.3-19 Financial Projection – Solo – Kertosono & Option 5-2 ............................... 7-38
Table 7.3-20 Financial Projection – Solo – Kertosono & Option 6 ................................... 7-39
Table 7.3-21 Financial Projection – Solo – Kertosono & Traditional Public Work
with Operation Outsourcing ......................................................................... 7-40
Table 7.4-1 Summarized Pros and Cons of Options.......................................................... 7-41
Table 7.4-2 Financial Evaluation of 6 Cases ..................................................................... 7-42
Table 7.4-3 Assumptions and Financial Evaluation on Four Options ............................... 7-43

Table 8.2-1 Assumption – Initial Investment Cost ............................................................ 8-5

Table 8.2-2 Financing Initial Capital Expenditure............................................................. 8-5
Table 8.2-3 Operation Cost, Depreciation and Tax Assumption........................................ 8-6
Table 8.2-4 Financial Projection – Solo – Kertosono & Option 6..................................... 8-8
Table 8.2-5 Summary of Financial Projection of Option 6................................................ 8-7
Table 8.7-1 Summary of Work Sharing among PU and the Private Sector ....................... 8-16
Table 8.7-2 Summary of Risk Sharing with Upfront Subsidy and
Ongoing Operational Subsidy ........................................................................ 8-17

Table 9.3-1 Toll Road Facilities......................................................................................... 9-5

Table 9.3-2 Typical Detailed Design Schedule.................................................................. 9-8
Table 9.4-1 Typical Construction Schedule....................................................................... 9-10
Table 9.5-1 Overall Implementation Schedule .................................................................. 9-12

Table 10.1-1 Part of Reference of Maintenance Specifications........................................... 10-7

- vi -
 List of Figures

Page

Figure 1.5-1 Study Flow Diagram....................................................................................... 1-5

Figure 1.6-1 Organization Chart ....................................................................................... 1-6

Figure 2.5-1 Toll Roads Short-Term Plan ......................................................................... 2-12

Figure 2.5-2 Toll Roads Long-Term Plan .......................................................................... 2-13
Figure 2.6-1 National Activity Centres in Java Island ...................................................... 2-17
Figure 2.6-2 Trans Java Toll Road Development Plan ...................................................... 2-17
Figure 2.7-1 Yogyakarta – Solo – Kertsono Toll Road ..................................................... 2-20
Figure 2.7-2 Semarang and Surabaya Toll Road Connections .......................................... 2-20

Figure 3.2-1 Traffic Survey Location Map ....................................................................... 3-2

Figure 3.2-2 Grouping of Vehicles .................................................................................... 3-3
Figure 3.2-3 Traffic Volume at Each Location .................................................................. 3-4
Figure 3.2-4 Traffic Growth of Toll Roads ....................................................................... 3-5
Figure 3.3-1 Study Area Zone Plan ................................................................................... 3-7
Figure 3.3-2 Future Desire Lines ...................................................................................... 3-8
Figure 3.4-1 Traffic Assignment for the Road Network in the Study Regions ................. 3-10
Figure 3.4-2 Speed-Flow Relationship ................................................................................... 3-10
Figure 3.4-3 Assignment Steps per Increment .................................................................. 3-12
Figure 3.4-4 Traffic Assignment Verification .................................................................... 3-13
Figure 3.4-5 Determination of αandβfrom WTP Survey Result ................................... 3-13
Figure 3.4-6 Searching the Maximum Revenue for the Study Section ............................. 3-15
Figure 3.4-7 Relationship between Toll Rate and WTP Data ............................................ 3-16
Figure 3.4-8 Traffic Volume in 2010 ................................................................................. 3-18
Figure 3.4-9 Traffic Volume in 2020 and 2030 ................................................................. 3-18
Figure 3.4-10 Assigned Traffic Volumes in 2006 and 2010 ................................................ 3-21
Figure 3.4-11 Assigned Traffic Volumes in 2020 and 2030 ................................................ 3-22

Figure 4.2-1 Typical Bridge over River ............................................................................ 4-6

Figure 4.2-2 Typical Bridge over Toll Road ..................................................................... 4-6
Figure 4.2-3 Standard Cross Section ................................................................................. 4-7
Figure 4.2-4 Typical Interchange ...................................................................................... 4-7
Figure 4.2-5 Rough Standard of Bridge Construction Cost by Bridge Type in Indonesia 4-10

Figure 5.1-1 PPP Structures .............................................................................................. 5-2

Figure 5.1-2 Cumulative Capital Value of PPPs in UK ..................................................... 5-6
Figure 5.1-3 Capital Value of Closed PPP Deals ............................................................... 5-7

Figure 7.3-1 Toll Revenue Comparison (Revenue max, socially accepted

and feasibility study) .................................................................................... 7-18
Figure 7.3-2 Initial Funds Raised by GOI (Billions of Rupiah).......................................... 7-22
Figure 7.3-3 Annual Service Payment (Millions of Rupiah) .............................................. 7-22
Figure 7.4-1 Government Expenditure and Net Contribution NPV Base (1/3) .................. 7-44
Figure 7.4-1 Government Expenditure and Net Contribution NPV Base (2/3) .................. 7-45
Figure 7.4-1 Government Expenditure and Net Contribution NPV Base (3/3) .................. 7-46

Figure 8.1-1 Summary of Structure and Government Expenditure Schedule..................... 8-2

Figure 8.2-1 Toll Revenue................................................................................................... 8-4

- vii -
Figure 8.5-1 Mechanism of PSO Development .................................................................. 8-14

Figure 9.3-1 Organization of Detailed Design .................................................................... 9-5

Figure 9.4-1 Organization of Construction ......................................................................... 9-9

Figure 10.1-1 Maintenance Procedure .................................................................................. 10-2

Figure 10.1-2 Maintenance Organization.............................................................................. 10-3

- viii -
 Appendix

Page

Appendix 3-1 OD Zoning Data ............................................................................................. A3-1-1

Appendix 4-1 Bridge List ...................................................................................................... A4-1-1

Appendix 7-1 Project Structure ............................................................................................. A7-1-1

Appendix 7-2 Payment Mechanism ...................................................................................... A7-2-1
Appendix 7-3 Risk Allocation ............................................................................................... A7-3-1

Appendix 8-1 Work Sharing between the Public Sector and the Private Sector ................... A8-1-1
Appendix 8-2 Risk Sharing between the Public Sector and the Private Sector..................... A8-2-1

Appendix 11-1 Invitation to Tender ........................................................................................ A11-1-1

- ix -
 ABBREVIATIONS

ASEAN : Association of South East Asian Nations

ADT : Average Daily Traffic Volume
BAPPENNAS : National Development Planning Agency
B/C : Benefit/Cost Ratio
BLU : Management of Public Service Agency
BOT : Build, Operate and Transfer
BPJT : Indonesian Toll Road Authority
CA : Concession Agreement
CCTV : Closed-Circuit TV
DBFO : Design, Build, Finance, and Operate
DGH : Directorate General of Highway
EIA : Environmental Impact Assessment
EIRR : Economic Internal Rate of Return %
GDP : Gross Domestic Products
GOI : Government of Indonesia
GOJ : Government of Japan
GRDP : Gross Regional Domestic Products
ITRA : Indonesia Toll Road Authority
ITT : Invitation to Tender
JARNS : Java Arterial Road Network
JBIC : Japan Bank for International Cooperation
JORR : Jakarta Outer Ring Road
KKPPI : National Committee for the Acceleration of Infrastructure Provision
LCC : Life Cycle Cost
MOF : Ministry of Finance
MPW : Ministry of Public Works
NPV : Net Present Value
OD : Origin-Destination
ODA : Official Development Assistance
OPEX : Operating Expenditures
PPP : Public-Private Partnership
PPITA : Private Provision of Infrastructure Technical Assistance
PQ : Pre-Qualification
PRC : People’s Republic of China
PSO : Public Service Obligation
PSP : Private Sector Participation
QC Consultant : Quality Control consultant
ROW : Light of Way
Rp. : Rupiah

-x-
RPJM : Mid-Term Development Plan 2005-2009
SPC : Special Purpose Company
STRADA : System for Traffic Demand Analysis
SUTT : High Voltage Aerial Cable
SUTET : Extra High Voltage Aerial Cable
TEV : Time Evaluation Value
TTC : Travel Time Cost
UKL : Environmental Management Plan
UNCITRAL : United Nations Commission on International Trade Law
UPL : Environmental Monitoring Plan
VCR : Vehicle Capacity Ratio
VFM : Value for Money
WTP : Willingness-To-Pay

- xi -
 CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION
 CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND

Java Island is the mainstay of socioeconomic activities of Indonesia as well as the

nucleus of prospective industrial development and diverse economic investment.
Economic activities in Java Island have been boomed by domestic and international
enterprises, which have inevitably induced remarkable development of road network
in Java Island. Due to the rapid development of economic activities, however, the
congestion level of trunk roads has reached to the critical limit in terms of physical
capacity and network function, and thus emergent increment of road capacity in duly
required. To cope with this situation and to support the booming socioeconomic
activities and further development in Java Island, many road development projects
are being implemented to attain substantial enhancement of the road transport
system in the island.

Previous toll road projects in Indonesia have been implemented by government

finance, foreign funds, Jasa Marga fund, BOT schemes and so forth. However, the
current economic conditions and financial uncertainty in Indonesia induce certain
constraints in project finance by the government, and conventional BOT schemes
has been depressed mainly due to intolerable risk for the private sector in terms of
demand, tariff, land acquisition and taxes. With the existing financial constraints,
new and stable sources of fund are required. This financial gap is expected to be
filled by the private sector that is also expected to be capable of improving the
quality of transport infrastructure services. The development of private sector
involvement in the provision of public services can be achieved through insuring
private as well as public benefits. The benefits through private sector participation
will be greater when the government clarifies the responsibilities of involved
governmental agencies, optimizes risk and work sharing between both public and
private sectors and develops supporting policies on competition and regulations.

The approach of applying PPP schemes in financing toll road projects is currently
applied in different countries. In Indonesia, however, it is still new financing
mechanism that requires to be carefully studied in order to successfully apply.
Applying PPP scheme on the study road has many objectives and is expected to
generate many benefits, including:

1-1
 - To provide a pilot PPP project that will open the market for more private sector
participation in financing public infrastructure projects.
- To develop, strengthen and open more business opportunities for the private
sector to carry out more roles in future.
- To reduce the life-cycle governmental burden in financing public infrastructure
projects which will support the national budget on the long term.
- To allow the utilization of private sector experience, efficiency, flexibility and
advanced technology in implementing and operating public projects.
- To deliver better and less expensive services to road users.

In response to the request of the Government of the Republic of Indonesia (GOI), the
Government of Japan (GOJ) has decided to conduct “The Study on Public-Private
Partnership (PPP) Scheme for Trans Java Toll Road in the Republic of Indonesia”.
Accordingly, JICA organized and dispatched a Study Team, from Katahira &
Engineers International (KEI) and PwC Advisory Co., Ltd. (PwC), a member firm of
PricewaterhouseCoopers, to Indonesia to commence the Study on April 2006. The
Final Report is scheduled to be submitted to the Government of the Republic of
Indonesia on January 2007.

1.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The objectives of the Study are:

1. To propose financially viable PPP scheme for the selected section of Trans Java
Toll Road based on the proposed PPP scheme; and
2. To transfer a set of PPP related knowledge and know how to the counterparts
during the course of the Study.

1.3 STUDY CORRIDOR

The road corridor under this Study is the section of “Yogyakarta ~ Surakarta (Solo) ~
Ngawi ~ Mantingan ~ Kertosono” with a total length of 219 km of Trans Java Toll
Road.

1.4 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

In order to achieve the objectives mentioned above, the Study will cover the
following items:

1. Collection and Review of Basic Information

1-2
 - Laws and regulations related to PPP road projects
- Status and progress of other donors’ activities related to the project

2. Review and Analysis of Relevant Data and Reports

- Central and provincial development plans by Sector
- Socioeconomic data and information (population, GDP, employment, etc.)
- Land use and ownership
- Natural conditions in the Study Area
- Environmental conditions
- Trend of other donors and NDOs activities

3. Review of Results of the Feasibility Study on the Study Road Section

- Present conditions
- Traffic and road network conditions
- Results of traffic demand forecast
- Engineering aspects
- Estimated cost
- Environmental conditions
- Economic viability
- Implementation strategy and plan

4. Traffic Surveys and Demand Forecast

- Field survey
- Supplementary traffic count surveys
- Willingness-to-Pay interview survey
- Review of demand forecast
- Simulation of toll levels and revenues
- Review of cost estimate

5. Formulation of Optimum PPP Scheme for Yogyakarta – Kertsono Section

- Information on pre-conditions PPP projects
- Interview with related government agencies, prospective operators/investors
and financial institutions.
- Optimum PPP scheme

6. Project Implementation Plan

- Proposed implementation plan based on work sharing between public and
private sectors
- Review of existing tender procedures and proposed procedures for the PPP
road project

1-3
 - Proposed evaluation points of the proposals

7. Effective Utilization of PPP Scheme

- Review existing BOT projects and identify problems
- Proposed improvements for implementation plans of PPP projects
- Identifying legislative hurdles which hamper PPP operations

8. Conclusions and Recommendations

1.5 SCHEDULE OF THE STUDY

The Study is commenced in April 2006 and the Final Report is scheduled to be
submitted by January 2007. Figure 1.5-1 shows the Study Flow Diagram.

1.6 ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY

The Study is carried out by JICA Study Team which is composed of the following
experts:

Dr. Hani ABDEL-HALIM Team Leader / PPP Scheme

Mrs. Yumiko NODA PPP Structure
Ms. Mariko OGAWA PPP Maintenance and Operation Plan
Mr. Soemu OSHITA PPP Construction Plan
Mr. Jon SIVERTSON Bidding Procedure (1)
Mr. Munehiko ETO Bidding Procedure (2)
Mr. Hiroo TAKEDA Toll Road Legislation
Dr. Shingo GOSE Toll Road Plan
Mr. Tatsuyuki SAKURAI Toll Road Policy Advisor

An Implementing Committee is set up to steer the Study effectively under the

initiative of the Ministry of Public Works. The committee is consisted of the
following:

Mrs. Sri Apriatini Soekardi Chairman; Director of General Planning,

Directorate General of highways, MPW
Mr. Soebagiono Secretary; Head of Sub Directorate of
Freeways and Toll Road Development,
Directorate of Freeways and Urban Road,
Directorate General of Highways, MPW

1-4
 2006
Year/Month
Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Study in Indonesia
Study in Japan
Study Place
Pre-Study in Japan

Reports
IC/R IT/R DF/R F/R

Formulation of PPP Scheme for the Study Section

Pre-Study
2.5 2.8 2.12
2.2 2.3 2.4 Collection and Review of Relevant Proposal for Project Implementation 2.10 2.11 2.13 2.14
Data and Reports Plan

① Collection and Review of

① Study on Overall Implementation
Development Plans Relevant
Plan
to the Study
② Study on Bidding Procedure
② Data Collection and Analysis

2.7
Formulation of PPP Scheme for
Yogyakarta – Kertsono Section Comments
on Draft
① Review of Preconditions Final
Holding of Workshop

1-5
Report
Submission of Final Report

　Preparation of Final Report

Study Items ② Interview Survey to Concerned Organizations from

Presentation of Inception Report

　Preparation of Draft Final Report

GOI

Collection and Review of Relevant Data

③ Study and Formulation of PPP Scheme
Discussion on Draft Final Report in Japan

Collection and Review of Basic Information

Proposal for Effective Utilization of
Presentation and Discussion on Draft Final Report, and

2.6
PPP Scheme
Review of F/S Results on the 2.9
Study Road Proposal for Effective Utilization of
2.2 PPP Scheme for Road Projects
① Results of Traffic Surveys and
Traffic Demand Forecast
② Toll Revenue Simulation
Analysis ① Analysis on Contracting Issues
③ Results of Estimated Project of Previous PPP Schemes
Cost
② Proposal of Guidelines

Report
　Preparation of Inception
Steering Committee
Meeting IC/P and Study (IT/R) (Proposal of Guidelines) (DF/R)
Organization (Draft PPP Scheme)

Stakeholder Meeting /
Workshop Stakeholder Meeting (1) Stakeholder Meeting (2) Workshop

* IC/R ： Inception Report IT/R ： Interim Report DF/R ： Draft Final Report F/R ： Final Report

Figure 1.5-1 Study Flow Diagram

1-5
 Mr. Nurdin Manurung Member; Director of Freeways and Urban
Road, Directorate General of Highways, MPW
Mr. Muhammad Irian Member; Secretary of BPJT, MPW
Ms. U. Hayati Triastuti, Member; Director of Transportation, Bappenas
Mr. Imron Bulkin Member; Director of PPP Development,
Bappenas
Mr. Ceppie Kurniadi Sumadilaga Member; Director of Bilateral Funding,
Bappenas
Mr. Agus Suprijanto Member; Director of Loan and Grant
Management, Ministry of Finance

The Study is supposed to be conducted in a manner of a joint work of Indonesian and

Japanese sides. In this context, the Ministry of Public Works allocated the Counterpart
Personnel as follows:

Mr. Herry Trisaputra Zuna Sub Directorate of Freeways and Toll Road
Development
Mr. Dedy Gunawan Sub Directorate of Freeways and Toll Road
Development
Mr. Rahman Arief Sub Directorate of Planning
Mr. Hardi Siahaan Toll Road Regulatory Board (BPJT)

The Organization Chart of the Study is shown in Figure 1.6-1.

Government of Indonesia Government of Japan

Implementing Directorate Japan International JICA

Committees General Cooperation Agency Advisory
of Highways (JICA) Committee

Counterpart Team JICA

Study Team

Figure 1.6-1 Organization Chart

1-6
 PART I

YOGYAKARTA – SOLO – KERTOSONO

TOLL ROAD DEVELOPMENT
 CHAPTER 2

DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT

 CHAPTER 2

DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT

2.1 BACKGROUND OF THE PROJECT

Compared with other ASEAN countries, Indonesia has a low density of road networks,
which give a density of 0.02 km per sq. km of land area. The road is rapidly getting
crowded as the number of motor vehicles increased more rapidly than the growth of
road network, particularly in Java Island, which accommodates the highest population
density and economic activities in the country.

The rapid socioeconomic growth at the southern and eastern areas of Java Island is
increasing the demand for better transportation facilities including road infrastructure.
Such areas are varying in terms of regional capacity, characteristics and potential.
Yogyakarta is known as a tourism area and the centre of education. Solo city has also
the same characteristics. Meanwhile, other cities along the corridor have potential as
centres of agriculture production and some tourism spots.

The Project Road is a section of Trans Java Toll Road, located in Central and East Java
that connects East Java and Central Java heading to Jakarta. The distribution of goods
from production areas to markets and the movement of people require higher travel
speed and shorter travel time to decrease travel cost with higher safety levels. The
development of a toll road will overcome the existing problems regarding the growth
in transport demand due to development in socioeconomic sectors.

The project’s main purpose is to provide an efficient road transport network in Java
Island in order to promote its rapid socioeconomic development. Java Island, with its
highest population density, is the mainstay of socioeconomic activities in Indonesia.
Due to the rapid development of economic activities, the congestion level of trunk
roads is expected to reach critical limits in the near future in terms of physical capacity
and network function. The proposed sections are critical components of Trans Java
Toll Road.

The current economic conditions and financial uncertainty in Indonesia induce certain
constraints in financial viability of projects. With the existing financial difficulties,
new and stable sources of fund are required through PPP schemes. In order to attract
the private sector participation, which is expected to improve the quality of the
transport services, the appropriate public sector’s support under PPP schemes will be

2-1
 required to lower financial requirements of the private sector down to the level
affordable by toll revenues.

2.2 OBJECTIVE OF THE PROJECT

The objectives of implementing the road project, between Yogyakarta – Solo –

Kertosono to Surabaya as a part of Trans Java Toll Road, are as follows:

・ To improve accessibility and capacity of road networks for the movement of

people and freight on this important transport corridor.
・ To promote national and regional socioeconomic development in corridor-impact
areas and cities along the road in eastern parts of Java Island
・ To increase productivity with repression of distributional cost and giving access to
regional and international markets
・ To provide an efficient road transport network in Java Island to promote its rapid
socioeconomic development

2.3 NECESSITY OF THE PROJECT

The economic growth and increase of social, economic and tourism activities within
the project area and along its corridor as well as the need to enhance the regional
development in central and eastern areas in Java Island, as per the targets of national
development plans, it can be said that this toll road project is the optimum alternative
to meet these requirements and conditions.

The Project Road has been declared in the RPJM (Mid-Term Development Plan
2005-2009) and also has been stated in the following:

・ Strategic Plan of the Ministry of Public Works, 2005-2009

・ Minister of Public Works Decree No. 369/KPTS/M/2005 on National Road
Network Master Plan to include toll road network master plan.
・ GOI has launched the Toll Road Acceleration Development Program through
Indonesia Infrastructure Summit I, January 2005.

2.3.1 National Mid-Term Development Plan

National road infrastructure in the National Mid-Term Development Plan of 2005 -

2009 represents an important sector that requires approximately Rp 25 trillion for
maintenance and upgrading, while the expected available fund is only Rp 15 trillion.
The needs for the development of strategic national road network including shortcut

2-2
roads, roads in isolated areas and in small islands and long span bridges is
approximately Rp. 50 trillion. The development of about 1,600 km of the highway
network in the three main islands of Java, Sumatra and Sulawesi requires a budget of
Rp 89 trillion in the five year plan. The Plan also states that the length of the national
road network will be expanded from 26,853 km to 34,828 km. To overcome this
financing gap, the funding scheme includes the involvement of the public sector
together with both domestic and foreign private sector.

The general policy of the plan includes the following major points:

・Harmonizing the road network system with the policy of national spatial planning
to support regional development and integrate with other infrastructure network
systems.
・Maintaining the performance of road infrastructure by optimizing the handling of
road network development to meet the transportation needs.
・Improving the accessibility of regional development in the framework of a unified
nation of the Republic of Indonesia.
・Promoting professional attitudes and institutional efficiency with human resources
independency in handling the road sector development.
・Encouraging the involvement of private sector and business circles to participate
with the public sector in developing the road network.

The following points are stated under the operational policy of the Plan:

・Prioritization in handling the development of strategic national roads has the

criteria of supporting the national economy as well as the completion of road
segments for optimum function in supporting developing areas, state-bordering
areas and isolated areas.
・Maintaining the existing road network in good operational conditions
・Increasing the strength of structures and capacity of roads in line with the increase
in demand for cargo movement and growth in traffic volumes.
・Establishing standards, guidelines and manuals on road development to support
regional autonomy as well as to optimize road operation and management.
・Providing information to stakeholders on road infrastructure operation and
encouraging investment for the acceleration of road development.

Goals of the Plan include the creation of reliable national road network with strategic
and collaborated interconnections to increase the accessibility and mobility for goods
and services from production centres to marketing areas. It has also the objective of
opening opportunities in road operation for the involvement of stakeholders including

2-3
 regional governments, private partners and the public sector.

Three scenarios; limited, moderate and ideal, are developed with different levels of
road network performance targets, as presented in Table 2.3-1. Based on each
performance target, road network improvement tasks are established regarding lengths
of roads under maintenance, rehabilitation, widening and construction. In addition,
required funds for national roads are estimated as Rp 30.0 trillion for the limited, Rp
45.0 trillion for moderate and Rp 75.0 for the ideal scenario. In addition, a fund of Rp
89.4 trillion is required to improve other roads under any of the three scenarios.

Table 2.3-1 Performance Targets of National Road Development Scenarios

Item Limited Scenario Moderate Scenario Ideal Scenario
Average Decrease: Increase: Increase:
Speed 44 km/hr to 42 km/hr 44 km/hr to 48 km/hr 44 km/hr to 55 km/hr
Road Condition

Good From 37 % to 28% From 37 to 31% From 37 to 40%

Moderate From 44% to 42% From 44% to 50% From 44% to 60%
Bad From 8% to 24% From 8% to 11% From 8% to 0%
Very Bad From 11% to 6% From 11% to 8% From 11% to 0%

2.3.2 Infrastructure Road Map

The Infrastructure Summit of January 2005 in Jakarta confirmed the Indonesian

Government intention to launch an extremely huge amount of new investments for the
development of infrastructure projects, including 38 toll road projects with investment
of about USD 9.5 billion in total. Such projects are now left to the investors, as Jasa
Marga is no longer the single operator and regulator assigned bt the Government.

Infrastructure development is now a pillar for the 5-year development strategy under
which the growth of GDP has the target of increasing from 4.9% in 2003 to 7.2% by
2009, reducing unemployment from 9% to 5.1% and the income poverty rate from
16.6% to 8.2% of Indonesia’s population. The targeted macroeconomic indicators are
presented in Table 2.3-2 for the years 2009 – 2009.

The Infrastructure Road Map established under the Strategic Initiatives to Accelerate
Infrastructure Development in Indonesia, Bappenas, addresses the private sector
participation with the following three policy initiatives:

1. General Policy Environment: Appropriate Guarantee for reducing uncertainty

a) Ensure predictability in rules and policies (including tariff and market
arrangement

2-4
Table 2.3-2 Annual Macroeconomic Indicators 2005 – 2009
Macro Indicators 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Inflation, CPI (%) 7.0 5.5 5.0 4.0 3.0
Nom. Exchange Rate (Rp/US$) 8,900 8,800 8,800 8,700 8,700
GDP Growth by Expenditure (%) 5.5 6.1 6.7 7.2 7.6
Current Account/GDP (%) 1.6 0.5 0.1 -0.2 -0.5
Foreign Reserves (US$ billion) 36.8 36.0 35.6 35.2 35.9
GDP/Capita (Rp thousand) 7,946 8,333 8,791 9,317 9,914
Budget Deficit/GDP (%) -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 0.0
Tax Revenue/GDP (%) 11.6 11.6 11.9 12.6 13.6
Debt Stock/GDP (%) 48.0 43.9 39.5 35.4 31.8
Open Unemployment (%) 9.5 8.9 7.9 6.6 5.1

b) Introduce enforceable contractual agreements, essential for mitigating non-

commercial investor risks
c) Policy certainty that can be offered, not a blanket “comfort letter”.
d) Commitment to accelerate infrastructure development and consistency with
the latest progress in other policy reform.
e) Policy direction for the management and mitigation of non-commercial risks,
such as political, economic, project, legal and other risks

2. Entry Policies: Reduced regulatory obstacles and facilitate fair competition

a) Reducing regulatory obstacles by facilitating reforms to remove obstacles for
private participation
b) Unbundling/liberalization of infrastructure sectors
c) Establishing fair competition, with models of competition such as deregulation,
BOT schemes and concessions for delegated management.

3. Pricing Policy: Reliable procedure and institutional setup for price determination
a) A simplified procedure for tariff setting
b) Strengthening/establishing regulatory body to oversee fair process of tariff
determination

Supportive Policies
1. Infrastructure Development Fund
a) Developing infrastructure development fund to tap domestic savings, by
creating an institutional framework/mechanism to raise funds from public and
institutional investors to support infrastructure development on a medium to
long term basis.

2-5
 b) Potential use of infrastructure development fund
2. Consolidate Indonesia Infrastructure Forum as a strategic partner of government
and as a conduit for private sector.

The issues and challenges in the transport sector are expressed as degradation in the
level-of-services as follows:

• Low quality and quantity of transportation services and un-integrated inter-

modal network services
• Inadequate government spending in transportation sectors needed to support
economic growth, to attain higher quality of welfare, and to facilitate regional
development
• Inadequate regulatory frameworks for fruitful public-private partnership in
transportation investment

The policy direction for the transportation sector has the targets of:

• Higher level-of-service: by rehabilitating and maintaining the existing infra-

structure to increase the quality of services to an acceptable level and by
enforcing law to attain safety.
• Greater integration: by developing a network of transportation that facilitates
inter-modal function, focusing along commercially viable corridors (demand
driven) while facilitating new investments for opening under-developed areas
(supply-driven).
• Better regulatory frameworks: for private participation and develop Blue Print
of national transportation system and roadmap strategy.
• Increasing mobility: by improving road quality performance to reduce road
user cost along national important corridors, e.g., Sumatra East Corridor and
North Java Corridor.
• Developing high grade network: along North-Coast Java and attracting private
investment
• Addressing bottleneck issues: in toll road industry, such as land acquisition,
tariff setting, government guarantee such as subsidy for low economic tariff
and low occupancy for pioneer transport services set by the government, etc.

2-6
2.4 SOCIOECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS IN PROJECT AREA

2.4.1 Population

Population data are based on the national census that is conducted every 10 years, with
the last one on the year 2000 and predictions of 2004. As presented in Table 2.4-1, the
average growth rate of population in Indonesia had decreased from 1.97% in the 1980s
to 1.43% in recent years, while it is increasing in Java Island from 1.3% to 1.5% in the
same period. Most of Indonesia population is concentrated in Java Island, which
occupies only an area of 7% of the total country and accommodates about 60% of the
population, without a well balanced regional distribution.

Table 2.4-1 Population and Growth Rate

Area Population (‘000) Annual Growth Rate (%)
Region 2
(km ) 1990 2000 2004 1980-90 1990-00 2000-04
DKI Jakarta 740 8,228 8,361 8,750 2.38 0.17 1.14
Java Barat 36,925 29,414 35,724 38,611 2.57 2.03 1.96
Java Tengah 32,800 28,516 31,223 32,543 1.17 0.94 1.04
DI Yogyakarta 3,133 2,913 3,121 3,223 0.57 0.72 0.81
Java Timur 46,690 32,488 34,766 36,482 1.08 0.70 1.21
Banten* 9,019 6,968 8,098 9,129 - 3.21 3.04
Java Island 129,306 107,527 121,293 128,738 1.30 1.21 1.50
Indonesia 1,860,360 178,500 205,843 217,854 1.97 1.49 1.43
* Was formed in 2000
Source: Statistical Yearbook of Indonesia – 2004, June 2005

2.4.2 Economy

For the year 2004, growth rate of Indonesian economy showed a better performance
than that of 2003. Based on GDP at 2000 constant prices, growth of Indonesian
economy in 2004 was 5.13 percent, as presented in Table 2.4-2. Almost all of the
sectors of economy, which compose the GDP, produced a positive growth in 2004,
except mining and quarrying sector.

The highest growth was reached by transportation and communication sector at 12.7
percent. Per capita national income at current prices increased from Rp 8.3 million in
2003 to Rp 9.5 million in 2004. At 2000 constant prices, the growth rate on the per
capita national income was 5.87% in 2004 compared with only 1.51% in 2003.

2-7
Table 2.4-2 Trend of Economic Indicators
Year Annual Growth Rate (%)
Indicator
2001 2002 2003 2004 2001 2002 2003 2004
At current market prices
GDP (billion Rp) 1,684,281 1,863,275 2,045,854 2,303,031 - - - -
GDP/Capita (Rp) 8,080,533 8,828,050 9,572,485 10,641,732 - - - -
GNP (billion Rp) 1,623,229 1,808,762 1,966,225 2,223,983 - - - -
GNP/Capita (Rp) 7,787,633 8,569,771 9,199,905 10,276,467 - - - -
NI (billion Rp) 1,507,590 1,644,412 1,778,660 2,046,297
NI/Capita (Rp) 7,232,838 7,791,094 8,322,295 9,455,426
At constant 2000 market prices
GDP (billion Rp) 1,442,984 1,506,124 1,579,559 1,660,579 3.84 4.38 4.88 5.13
GDP/Capita (Rp) 6,922,888 7,135,900 7,390,707 7,673,119 2.54 3.08 3.57 3.82
GNP (billion Rp) 1,376,774 1,449,767 1,498,328 1,580,111 6.10 5.30 3.35 5.46
GNP/Capita (Rp) 6,605,235 6,868,885 7,010,631 7,301,296 4.78 3.99 2.06 4.15
NI (billion Rp) 1,277,342 1,316,776 1,353,474 1,451,041 0.90 3.09 2.79 7.21
NI/Capita (Rp) 6,128,196 6,238,784 6,332,861 6,704,898 -0.35 1.80 1.51 5.87
GRDP (billion Rp at current market prices)
Java Island 809,942 926,110 1,031,446 - - - - -
DKI Jakarta 219,934 253,435 284,000 - - - - -
Java Barat 193,297 214,302 234,451 - - - - -
Java Tengah 136,131 156,418 175,106 - - - - -
DI Yogyakarta 14,577 16,713 18,839 - - - - -
Java Timur 195,763 226,957 254,381 - - - - -
Banten 50,241 58,284 64,670 - - - - -
GRDP (billion Rp at constant 1993 prices)
Java Island 243,772 253,104 264,108 - 3.88 3.81 4.35 -
DKI Jakarta 61,868 64,338 67,163 - 3.69 3.88 4.51 -
Java Barat 58,312 60,594 63,179 - 4.67 3.95 4.29 -
Java Tengah 42,305 43,776 45,605 - 3.42 3.55 4.11 -
DI Yogyakarta 5,187 5,395 5,616 - 4.00 3.85 3.70 -
Java Timur 58,750 60,754 63,252 - 3.34 3.40 4.11 -
Banten 17,350 18,246 19,293 - 5.45 4.60 6.04 -
Source: Statistical Yearbook of Indonesia – 2004, June 2005

Among all the provinces of Indonesia, DKI Jakarta has the highest GRDP with about
16.6% of total 30 provinces at 2003 current prices. The second and third ranks were
Java Timur (East Java) and Java Barat (West Java) with 14.9% and 13.7% of total 30
provinces, respectively.

2-8
2.4.3 Socioeconomic Framework

Socioeconomic growth parameters of Java Island applied in the future socioeconomic

frameworks of the related studies of Java Arterial Road Network Study, JARNS 2001,
Heavy Loaded Improvement Project II, HLIRP 2001 and the Feasibility Study on
Yogyakarta – Solo – Kertsono Toll Road, F/S 2006 are reviewed in relation to the
national and regional future growth rates. Applied growth of population shows the
same rates of 1.12% to the year 2010 and 1.09 to the year 2020.

Economic growth rates are developed under the 3 scenarios of high, medium and low
growth of GDP, in which the medium scenario is adopted in JARNS and HLIRP with
slightly different rates. This scenario is the base of estimating the expenditures on
roads in Java Island as a percentage of total roads expenditures and is utilized in the
forecast process of future OD matrices of JARNS. The HLIRP adopted also the
moderate scenario with a lower growth rate between 2005 and 2010.

The Feasibility Study on the project road applied adjustment factors to adjust the
framework based on the recent economic performance and the realization of existing
economic growth to reach the targets of the Government, as shown in Table 2.4-3. This
adjusted scenario is applied in the demand forecast process of this study as the most
newly developed scenario that reflects the latest developments in the Indonesian
economy and meets the established economic development targets produced under the
Infrastructure summit.

Table 2.4-3 Future Socioeconomic Growth Rates

Study Area 2005 - 2010 2010 - 2015 2015 – 2020
HLIRP-F/S Indonesia Population 1.33% 1.30% 1.30%
HLIRP-F/S Java Island Population 1.12% 1.09% 1.09%
JARNS Indonesia GDP – Moderate 5.40% 5.50% 5.60%
HLIRP Indonesia GDP – Moderate 5.10% 5.50% 5.50%
HLIRP Java Island GRDP – Moderate 3.78% 4.90% 5.34%
F/S Indonesia GDP – Adjusted 6.60% 7.12% 7.12%
F/S Java Island GRDP – Adjusted 6.34% 6.91% 6.91%

2-9
2.5 ROAD NETWORK DEVELOPMENT

2.5.1 Arterial Road Network Development

In 2001, a comprehensive study on the development Java Arterial Road Network

(JARNS) was completed with the objectives of establishing a 20-year road network
development plan that indicates the most economically feasible means of providing
future capacity and access needs, and formulating a series of 5-year implementation
plans indicating the forecast optimal timing of successive additions to and
improvements of the network. The initial stimulus for the study derived from a
number of different issues and concerns:

- The realization of the need for future road capacity expansion in Java
- The belief that there was a need for toll roads which would be provided through a
high decree of private sector participation
- The absence of an overall road network development plan that would coordinate
and prioritise government’s investment programs in arterial road network capacity
provision in Java Island, and
- The relative disarray in the planning and coordination of emerging a program for
toll road schemes available to the private sector.

A Road Network Development Plan with staged Implementation Programs for the
whole of Java Island were established for the strategic network that includes all
inter-urban roads of strategic significance in Java for a period of 20 years.

Under the Main Trunk Network, the creation of a major “backbone” for the Java
network has been formed as essential as a continuation of the strategy that has been
pursued by several other programs, including the North Java corridor program. The
overall objective here is to create a high-quality high-capacity route between the
western and eastern ends of Java, connecting the major cities and provincial capitals
and promoting the flow of long distance traffic through the economic heart of Java and
Indonesia.

Identification of the future need for toll roads in Java and their staged development
priorities was one of the original motivations of JARNS study. It was found that with
the exception of a number or predominantly urban or urban-fringe toll road schemes,
inter-urban traffic volumes are generally low to achieve financial viability roads based
on traditional BOT schemes for private sector financing.

2 - 10
2.5.2 Toll Road Development

The urban development in Indonesia had been increasing ever since the First Five
Year Development. This fact led to the increase of social and economic activities
which caused high growth in traffic volumes. Arterial roads, which were to be used for
long distance traffic had been confuse not only with collector roads but also local
roads. These situations caused traffic congestion and obstruction for targeted growth in
economic sectors.

Developing arterial road network requires a large amount of fund, while the national
budget was very limited. Although the basic principal is that a public road is
free-of-charge to use, the urgency of, and the insufficiency in the fund for, road
network development necessitate the governments to adopt toll road systems.
Collecting toll is justified by the beneficiary-pay principal for the new service
provided by expressways as long as free alternatives exist. Figures 2.5-1 and 2.5-2
shows the short-term and long-term development plans of toll roads in Java Island

The first toll road built in Indonesia was the “Jagorawi Toll Road” with a length of 46
km linking Jakarta to the outer suburbs of Bogor and Ciawi in March 1978. The
Government funded it through offshore loans and the issuance of Indonesia Highway
Corporation (Jasa Marga) bonds. Having been founded to operate the toll road on
March 1st, 1978 based on the Government Regulation No. 4 of 1978, later based on
Presidential Decree no. 38 of 1981, PT Jasa Marga (Persero) was appointed to operate
nine toll roads/bridges in Indonesia. At the end of 1980s, the Government invited the
private sector to take part in the development of the toll road network through Build,
Operate and Transfer (BOT) schemes. As of the beginning of 2006, 649.12 km of toll
roads are in operation in Indonesia, of which and 165 km are managed by private
operators.

In general, toll roads form part of the road infrastructure network. They were deemed
to be implemented in a self-sufficient context without straining the Government’s
budget. In order to give further strength to that investment concept, the regulatory
status of toll roads was alerted by the Road Law No. 38/2004. The government tends
to finance future toll roads through both approaches of fully private funds and
Public-Private Partnership (PPP) programs. In order to attract private sector, there are
steps that are done or being considered by the Government:

・Strengthening the institutional and regulatory framework for toll roads

・Establishing the Indonesian Toll Road Authority (BPJT) which will be responsible
for investment regulations on toll roads to replace Jasa Marga regulatory role

2 - 11
2 - 12
Source: Ministerial Decree 369, August 2005
Figure 2.5-1 Toll Roads Short-Term Plan
2 - 13
Figure 2.5-2 Toll Roads Long-Term Plan
・Formulating appropriate structure for the automatic adjustment of toll rates
・Applying transparent and competitive process
・Addressing issues on land acquisition and rights
・Establishing clear and sound policies to determine the proper conditions under
which Government support should be extended
・Formulating a road master plan including toll road master plan

Article 43(2) of the Road Law No. 38/2004 gives the new policy of the Government
regarding the development of toll roads, and the Government Regulation No. 15/2005
on toll roads, article 19-23 shows that for the toll road sections that indicate positive
economical viability but not financially viable, the Government will finance or
construct the respective toll road. After constructing the toll road, the Government
will practice contract management for the operation and maintenance of the facility.

For toll road sections with indications for positive economic viability but marginal
financial viability, they can be implemented by the Government and an enterprise in
which finance and construction can be conducted through a partnership scheme. For
toll roads having good economic and financial viability, they will be offered through
open and transparent investment tender process.

The Road Law No. 38/2004 encompasses the following regulations:

Indonesian Toll Road Authority (BPJT)

・Indonesian Toll Road Authority (BPJT) established by, and is responsible to the
Minister of Public Works.
・The Authority includes participants from the Government, stakeholders and the
public.
・BPJT’s basic responsibilities encompass the implementation of regulations and the
supervision of toll road operators in accordance with the policies and regulations
specified in Law No. 38 of 2004 and Government Regulation No. 15 of 2005.
・Major tasks to be carried out by the Government/BPJT include: project preparation,
invitation to pre-qualification (PQ & bidding), pre-bid conference, evaluation of
bids, appointment of successful bidder, contract signing and contract implantation.

Toll Rates
・Initial toll rates and subsequent toll rate adjustments are proposed by the investor
through BPJT and approved by the Minister of Public Works.
・The rates are calculated by taking into consideration the willingness-to-pay of toll
road users, savings in vehicle operating cost and the feasibility of the investment.
・Tariffs are regulated under a toll road authorization agreement; however, their

2 - 14
 application is subject to the official announcement of the toll road operation.
・Tariffs are subject to be reviewed and adjusted every two years with a coefficient
based on the inflation rate.

Land Acquisition
・The Government is responsible for the acquisition of land through the Ministry of
Public Works.
・Land Acquisition is funded either by the Government, State Owned Company or
Private Sector.
・The budget for land acquisition is determined by the Government.
・The toll road and the land on which it is built are the property of the Government.
・In case of land acquisition funds emanating from private parties if the cost exceeds
the approved budget, the shortfall will be compensated by an adjustment of the
concession or through other acceptable methods.

To cope with the problem of land speculation that has caused project-cost inflation
and uncertainty, it is expected that the Government will issue a regulation banning the
use of land designated for turnpike projects for other purposes. With this regulation,
land that has been earmarked for turnpike projects can not be sold except to the local
government at a price that is slightly higher than the market value. This will be a part
of the Government’s efforts to encourage investors to participate in future toll road
projects and to reduce the length of the land acquisition process.

2.5.3 Indonesia Highway Corporation

On March 1978, Indonesia Highway Corporation, PT Jasa Marga (Persero), was

established to operate the first section of toll roads in Indonesia. It was established as
a state-owned corporation whose business includes the construction, management and
maintenance of toll roads based on the Government’s Rules No. 4 and the Decision of
the Minister of Finance of No. 90/KMK.06/1978, about the capital of PT Jasa Marga
(Persero), dated February 27, 1978. The official document for establishment had been
legalized by The Minister of Justice by the Decision No.YA5/130/I, dated February
22, 1982. It had been registered at the Office of the Court of First Instance in Jakarta
No. 767 dated March 2, 1982 and had been announced in the State News of The
Republic of Indonesia, No. 73 dated September 10, 1982, addition number 1138.

March 9, 1978, the operation of first Toll Road in Indonesia was officially opened,
called Jagorawi Toll Road that covers Cawang-Cibinong for about 27 km. This Toll
road was operated right after it was officially opened. Until 1987, Jasa Marga was the
only toll road operator in Indonesia. As of the beginning of 2006, a total of 649.12 km

2 - 15
 of toll roads, or 74.6% of the whole toll roads in Indonesia, are operated by Jasa
Marga. At present, there are private sector operators who manage a total of about 165
of toll roads under BOT schemes.

With the establishment of BPJT that have the responsibilities of the implementation of
regulations and the supervision of toll road operators and the new roles of the
Directorate General of Highways (Bina Marga), the role of Indonesia Highway
Corporation became as an operator for toll roads. For private sector finance project,
Bina Marga activities include the preparation of business plans, technical and
environmental feasibility studies, detailed engineering design, construction
development, routine and periodic maintenance and traffic operation services.

At present, Jasa Marga is offering bonds and after several delays caused by regulatory
uncertainties, it is expected that it will go public via an initial public offering and will
sell some of its stock to raise funds required to finance new toll road projects.

2.6 TRANS JAVA TOLL ROAD

The Study Road between Yogyakarta and Kertsono is a part of Trans Java Toll Road
which connects Merak to the west with Surabaya to the east, with a total length of
863.7 km, of connecting the centres of social and economic activities in Java Island.
This road, which was called Pantura Road, has been pioneered in 1660s as the first
version of Trans Java Road to connect Banten in west Java with Banyuwangi in the
east with a length of 1400 km. Until now the road condition is far from satisfactory
with only small sections that served by toll road and most parts are still marked as bad
condition road.

The Trans Java Toll Road is essential for Java Island from the social, economic and
commercial points of view. It is the artery of land transportation in the island used by
50-70 thousand units of vehicles every day and more important than rail and sea
transport. Figure 2.6-1 shows the major national activity centres in Java Island that are
served by Trans Java Toll Road. Figure 2.6-2 shows the status of each section of Trans
Java Toll Roads as of the beginning of 2006.

Trans Java Toll Road has been a dream for decades. A notable connection between
Jakarta and West Tangirang, as a segment of the road, was completed in 1984. In East
Java, another segment was completed in 1986, connecting Surabaya and Gempol.
Jakarta Cikampek Toll Road, going eastward from Jakarta, was completed in 1988 to
be a busy road along the northern coast of Java.

2 - 16
 NATIONAL ACTIVITY CENTERS
IN JAVA ISLAND
NORTH

SERANG

JABODETABEK SEMARANG DSK

CIREBON

SURAKARTA
SURABAYA

DENPASAR DSK

BANDUNG DSK
CILACAP

YOGYAKARTA DSK

PHYSICAL DEVELOPMENT UNDER CONTROL

PRIMARY DEVELOPMENT CENTER

Scale :

SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT CENTER 0 20 60 120 Km

Figure 2.6-1 National Activity Centres in Java Island

Figure 2.6-2 Trans Java Toll Road Development Plan

2 - 17
2.7 MAJOR COMPONENTS OF THE PROJECT

Tasks of the project under this study involve all the works required for the new
construction of a toll road facility between Yogyakarta and Kertosono with a total
length of 219.018 kilometres. The Study Road is divided into 12 segments between
interchanges with the lengths shown in Table 2.7-1. It contains 13 interchanges and
one junction at its connection with Semarang – Kartosuro section of Trans Java Toll
Road. The road is planned to be constructed as divided with two lanes in each
direction that will require a right of way of 60 – 70 meters. During the feasibility
study stage, it was basically divided into the following four sections:

Section I: Ygyakarta – Surakarta (Solo)

Yogyakarta is characterised as a student and tourism city that is always busy with
domestic and foreign tourism. More than the cultural heritage, the city has beautiful
natural panorama. The existing road between the two cities, passing through 4 districts
with high agricultural productivity, was widened to 2 lanes in each direction; however,
the road is still characterized by traffic congestions due to the high traffic volumes and
traffic friction at built-up areas. In line with the increase of economic activities in the
area, the new toll road connection between the two cities is required.

Section II: Surakarta (Solo) – Mantingan

Surakarta is one of the big cities in Central Java and is the centre of trade, industry and
other services in the region. The limited-capacity road network in this heavily built-up
area with concentration of population density is handling high traffic volumes of
heavy vehicles that transport heavy commodity vehicles.

Section III: Mantingan – Ngawi

Ngawi, neighboring with Kapupaten Sragen, is expected to practice rapid development
in the near future. With Mantigan, being a growth center in the district, traffic volumes
are rapidly growing. Meanwhile, the capacities of the existing road networks, which
need improvement works, can not be well operated as distributed by mixed traffic and
heavy side friction.

Table 2.7-1 Length of Study Road Segments

Interchange Yogyakarta Prambanan Klaten Delanggu Kartosuro (Junction-I/C )
Kilometer 0+000 3+413 8+423 20+626 32+274 39+791 41+900
Length, km 3.413 5.010 12.203 11.648 7.517 2.109

Interchange Kartosuro (I/C) Solo Karanganyar Sragen Ngawi Madiun Caruban Nganujuk Kertosono
Kilometer 41+900/0+000 11+338 21+787 35+543 86+297 109+782 118+320 153+925 177+118
Length, km 11.338 10.449 13.756 50.754 23.485 8.538 35.605 23.193

2 - 18
Section IV: Mantingan - Kertosono
The corridor in this area region consists of built up and densely populated areas and
traffic is characterized with large volumes of heavy-duty vehicles transporting natural
products like oil, oil palms, tea and rubber destined for Kertosono.

To realize the Project, major tasks which are expected to be carried out by either the
Government or private sector based on the formulated work sharing program can be
setup as follows:

・ Fund Arrangement: based on the formulated PPP scheme and the sharing in the
financial responsibilities between both the Government and PPP entities of the
private sector, arrangements should be done to secure both public and private
funds for different steps of project implementation
・ Selection of Consultant: with the utilization of public funds under the PPP scheme,
consultants should be selected under the Governmental roles and those of the
financing agencies involved in providing funds for the Government.
・ Detailed Engineering Design: Due to the large volume and nature of works of the
Project, which composes of the construction of a large number of structures
including interchanges and bridges as well as the construction of the toll road
carriageway, the Project should be divided into several packages, to be designed
and implemented simultaneously.
・ Land Acquisition: as this task composes a high risk toward the implementation of
the project on schedule and it usually requires long time to finalize, it should be
started at earliest possible stages.
・ Environmental Impact Assessment: although high negative environmental impacts
are not expected, acquiring environmental clearance based on EIA with mitigating
measures for any expected impacts is necessary for such large-scale project.
・ Tender Documents: The ordinary procedure for the tendering stage is to be
conducted after the completion of the detailed engineering design stage which
includes the preparation of the tender documents; however, with the adoption of a
PPP scheme, early tendering stage is required to select the private sector partner
that will handle designated tasks under the scheme. This task includes the
sub-tasks of: Advertisement - Prequalification - Bidding – Contracting.
・ Construction: based on the source of utilized funds and the contracting agreement,
construction activities are defined under the work sharing concept. With the
limited time-frame for construction, the issue of land acquisition should be
completely cleared in advance.
・ Operation and Maintenance: are the two tasks that are completely carried out by
the private sector partner under any of the proposed PPP schemes of the Study.

2 - 19
 Rembang
Tuban
SEMARANG

Salatiga N GAWI
SURABAYA
S RAGEN IN T ERC H ANGE
INTER CH AN GE
Ngawi C ARU BAN
IN TE RC HA NGE NGA NJUK
Magelang S OLO
IN T ERC H ANGE I NT ERC H ANGE

KLA TEN Jombang

I NT ERC H ANGE
PR AMB ANAN
IN TERC H ANGE
KAR ANG A NYAR
I NT ERC H ANGE
Gempol
Surakarta MA DIU N

Madiun
I NT ER CH ANG E Kertosono EKNDERTPROSON
OJECT
YOGYAK ART A
IN TE RC HAN GE
K ART OSU RO
INT ER CH AN GE
O Probolinggo
D ELAN GGU
INTER CH AN GE

YOGYAKARTA

M alang
Pacitan Tulungagung
L EGEND :
Arterial Road
Primary Collector Road
Strategic Collector Road
Tol Road
Other Road

Figure 2.7-1 Yogyakarta – Solo – Kertosono Toll Road

Figure 2.7-2 Semarang and Surabaya Toll Road Connections

2 - 20
2.8 EFFECTS OF TOLL ROAD PROJECT

Fully access control roads, such as the Toll Road Project, have various and far
reaching effects on a variety of economic sectors and individuals as well, not only on
their areas of construction but also on other parts of the whole region or country.
Socioeconomic effects gained by the construction of fully access control roads can be
usually classified in two major categories; direct effects and indirect effects. Direct
effects are those benefits which road users directly receive by using the road as
savings in travel time and cost and can be basically evaluated on monetary basis to
some extent, while the indirect effects that are mostly represented as regional and
national development effects.

Since Indonesia aims to further nationwide and regional development, greater focus
should be placed on the regional development, or indirect, effects rather than the direct
effect and the profitability of applying toll on the road. Regional development will
bring a variety of benefits to the whole nation, and if adequate policies and investment
schemes accompany road development, regional development can be set efficiently
and equitably.

2.8.1 Direct Effects

1) Savings in Travel Time: This is the most important effect of the new road gained
through the reduction in trip distance and time due to its higher speed and
level-of-service compared with other ordinary roads.
2) Savings in Vehicle Operating Cost: Contribution to energy savings including fuel
and lubricant consumption as well as other savings in vehicle tyres, parts,
maintenance and capital consumption provide benefits on individual base as well
as on national level.
3) Improvement in Traffic safety: Higher safety for road traffic is a major benefit to
the road users as well as to the whole society. This benefit can be partially
expressed in monetary basis; however, the social impact has more effect.
4) More comfortable and safe driving: With the high level-of-service facility and
non-interrupted traffic, it is expected that travel on the road will be more
comfortable and safe for road users with reduced driver’s fatigue and other related
effects.
5) Decreasing congestion on ordinary roads: This benefit is not for the users of the
new facility but for drivers on the existing ordinary roads. By diverting a portion
of the traffic volume from ordinary roads to the new high level-of-service facility,
it is expected that congestions on the ordinary roads will be alleviated. In addition,
as new road facilities have the bypass function at built-up areas, through traffic

2 - 21
 moves outside centre of cities and towns along the road.
6) Improvement in punctuality: Toll roads with access control enable punctual arrival
at destinations, which help production centres to perform detailed scheduling of
transport for products and efficient logistic systems for different activities
distributed between different locations.
7) Betterment of environment: The better energy efficiency of vehicles on high
level-of-service roads will lead to reducing emission of exhausted gases and
improvement in air quality. In addition, less traffic on ordinary roads at city
centres and populated areas will result in better urban environment.
8) Promotion of mobility (long-distance bus service): With toll roads that provide
higher travel speeds than ordinary roads, inter-urban high-speed bus services can
be provided for long-distance public transport trips in shorter travel times.

2.8.2 Regional Effects

1) Betterment of nationwide development: Promotion of economic activities in rural

and local, including; industry, manufacturing, agriculture, tourism and commercial
activities, is an important task in the national development planning process. The
toll road plays an important role toward this end, which will result redistributing
excess agglomerated activities in metropolitan areas. This will consequently result
in creating demand by road investments, higher productivity, betterment of
economic activities distribution, increase in tax revenues, increase in exports,
increase in population and income in rural areas and enhanced national identity.
2) Improvement in living conditions: Better road infrastructure facilities will result in
widening life and employment opportunities, providing region-wide services such
as medical care and education as well as efficient recovery systems in case of
natural disasters.

2 - 22
 CHAPTER 3

TRAFFIC SURVEY
AND
DEMAND FORECAST
 CHAPTER 3

TRAFFIC SURVEY AND DEMAND FORECAST

3.1 OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this chapter is to review the future traffic volume of the F/S conducted
for the study section by GOI in February of 2006 in order to ensure the precision of
PPP scheme study. The following tasks were carried out for the review.

• Conducting traffic surveys including traffic volume count survey, road side OD
survey and willingness-to-pay (WTP) survey.
• Collecting and reviewing the trends of the past traffic volume and growth, and the
present toll rates of the existing toll roads to support the traffic analysis in
interpretation of its results and setting the socially acceptable level of toll rate.
• Reviewing procedure and factors for traffic demand forecast used in the F/S to
identify the issues for this study.
• Forecasting future traffic demand and assignment with JICA STRADA.

3.2 TRAFFIC SURVEY

3.2.1 Survey Method

Traffic survey was conducted on both May 2 (Tuesday) and May 3 (Wednesday) of
2006, which consists of the following surveys;

(1) Traffic Volume Count Survey for 24-hour and 12-hour

• Survey Location: Eight (8) locations for each as shown in Figure 3.2-1 that are
near the locations where the survey was conducted in the F/S.
• Survey Time: 6:00 AM to 6:00 AM of the next day for 24-hour.
6:00 AM to 6:00 PM for 12-hour.
• Survey Method Manual count by direction and vehicle type, data of which
was recorded at every 15 minutes.

(2) Roadside Origin and Destination (OD) Interview Survey for 12-hour.
• Survey Location: Eight (8) locations shown in Figure 3.2-1.
• Survey Time: 6:00 AM to 6:00 AM
• Survey Method: Around 20% out of the traffic were stopped at random, drivers
being interviewed.

3-1
 (3) Willingness-To-Pay (WTP) Survey
• Survey Location: Eight (8) locations including gas stations.
• Survey Time: 6:00 AM to 6:00 AM
• Survey Method: Interview with vehicle owners.
• Survey Format: Some examples shown in Table 3.2-1. Note that in order to
avoid the bias of individuals, five (5) kinds of questionnaire
sheets with various toll rates were prepared - one sheet is for
one interviewee.

- Legend –
24 hrs and OD Survey
12 hrs Survey
Study Section

Figure 3.2-1 Traffic Survey Location Map

Table 3.2-1 Questionnaire Sheets (Sample) for WTP Survey

Case A
for study purpose only
Road Type Travel time (hrs) Travel Cost (1,000Rp) Choice (pls. Check)
Sample ID Date　(month/day)
General Info.

Location Time Ordinary Road 5 0

Vehicle Gr. 1. ; 2. ; 3. ; 4. ; 5a. ; 5b. ; 6. ; 7a. ; 7b. ; 7c.
Toll Expressway 2 65
1-Address
Case B

1)20-29 2)30-39 3)40-49

Road Type Travel time (hrs) Travel Cost (1,000Rp) Choice (pls. Check)
2-Sex 3-Age
1-Male 2-Female 4)50-59 5)>60
4-Do you have a driving lisence 5-Total number of cars your family has Ordinary Road 3 0
Personal Information

1-Yes 2-No
6-Car availability 7-Occupation Toll Expressway 1.5 40
1-Always 1- Admin. 2- Professional 3- Tech./assist.
2-Often 4- Clerk 5- Sale/Services 6- Farmer/fisher Case C
3-Occasionally 7- Craftman 8- Production 9- Unskilled
4-Seldom 10- Student 11- House wife 12- Retired Road Type Travel time (hrs) Travel Cost (1,000Rp) Choice (pls. Check)
5-Not available 13- Jobless 14- Other

8-Monthly Income (1,000 Rp) Ordinary Road 1 0

1) <1,000 2) 1,001-5,000 3) 5,001-10,000
4) 10,001-20,000 5) >20,001
Toll Expressway 0.5 15
10- Trip OD
Where did you start this trip?

Landmark C ase A
Sheet 1
Where do you go this trip? Road Type T r a v e l t im e ( h r s ) T ra v e l C o s t (1 ,0 0 0 R p ) C h o ic e ( p ls . C h e c k )

Landmark O r d in a r y R o a d 5 0
11-Travel Time
How long does it take? Minutes
T o ll E x p r e s s w a y 2 80
Trip Information

C ase B
12- Trip purpose 13-Frequency
1.Work 7.Shopping/Eating How often do you use a car for this trip purpose and OD ? Road Type T r a v e l t im e ( h r s ) T ra v e l C o st (R p ) C h o ic e ( p ls . C h e c k )
2.Education 8.Sending/ Fetching 1) more than 90% of time
3.Home 9.Recreation 2) 70 - 90 % O r d in a r y R o a d 3 0
4.Selling/Delivering 10.Medical treatment 3) 50 - 70 %
5.Meeting/business 11.Social 4) 30 - 50 % T o ll E x p r e s s w a y 1 .5 30
6.Return to work place 12.Other 5) less than 30%
14- How much would you pay for travel time reduction of this trip
C ase C
by Urban Expressway ? Road Type T r a v e l t im e ( h r s ) T ra v e l C o st (R p ) C h o ic e ( p ls . C h e c k )
1) By 20% of travel time of this trip Rp
O r d in a r y R o a d 1 0
2) By 50% of travel time of this trip Rp
T o ll E x p r e s s w a y 0 .5 5

Common Sheet Sheet 2

3-2
3.2.2 Results of Traffic Survey
(1) Grouping of Vehicles
There are ten (10) types of vehicles surveyed in the study. They can be categorized
into three (3) groups following regulation in Indonesia except for such small vehicles
as motorcycles, etc. which are usually not allowed to use toll roads.
Grouping of Vehicles is as follows (refer to Figure 3.2-2):

Group-I
- Utility (sedan, jeep, etc.), Small public and cargo transport (oplet, pick-up, micro
truck, small bus, etc.).
Group I Group IIA Group IIB
Group-IIA
- Big bus, Truck with 2-axle

Group-IIB
- Truck with 3-axle or more Figure 3.2-2 Grouping of Vehicles

(2) Traffic Volume along the Study Section and Its Interpretation
The result of traffic volume count survey is shown in Table 3.2-2 and Figure 3.2-3
with comparing to the F/S. The result has the following tendency.

• Traffic volume counted in the study is smaller than that in the F/S. Difference in
total traffic volume between them is 10 to 30%.

The tendency of difference in traffic volume between both surveys is interpreted as

follows.
• Seasonal fluctuation as shown in Table 3.2-3
--The study’s survey was in early May of 2006, the F/S’s survey in September of
2005. While traffic volume in April and May when the study’s survey was
conducted is constantly smaller than in other months, traffic volume in
September is larger than in other months
• Influence of gasoline price hike as shown in Table 3.2-3
--Gasoline price has been almost double since November of 2005; the F/S’s
survey and the study’s survey conducted before and after gasoline price hike,
respectively.
--According to the table, traffic volume in 2006 is almost the same as that in
2004.

Since seasonal factor for traffic on toll roads has been prepared, average annual traffic
volume may be estimated to be smaller than that of the F/S but larger than that of the

3-3
 study. As for the influence of gasoline price hike, decrease of the traffic volume is
considered to be temporary phenomenon according to Figure 3.2-4, which shows the
past trend of the traffic growth after/before Asian Monetary Crisis in 1998. In several
years after 1998, the traffic growth has tendency to get back on the past growth trend
line. These trends seem to be true of the traffic on the arterial road where the traffic
survey was conducted.

Table 3.2-2 Traffic Volume on the Study Section

Grp-I Grp-IIA Grp-IIB Total
Section
F/S Study F/S Study F/S Study F/S Study
Yogya-Prambanan 34,498 - 3,024 - 703 - 38,225 -
Prambanan-Klaten 21,074 17,570 2,481 683 1,024 201 24,579 18,454
Yogya-Solo
Klaten-Delanggu 21,807 - 2,105 - 1,074 - 24,986 -
Delanggu-Kartosuro 19,158 17,670 2,111 923 1,113 239 22,382 18,832
Solo-Sragen 14,869 13,584 3,753 1,463 1,538 443 20,160 15,490
Solo-Mantingan
Sragen-Mantingan 9,961 7,424 1,690 1,517 1,214 641 12,865 9,582
Mantingan-Ngawi Mantingan-Ngawi 9,399 - 1,620 - 1,183 - 12,202 -
Ngawi-Maospati(S) N.A. 6,327 N.A. 789 N.A. 656 8,591 7,772
Maospati-Madiun(S) 10,894 - 880 - 319 - 12,093 -
Madiun-Caruban(S) 9,457 9,214 1,303 683 584 106 11,344 10,003
Ngawi-Kertosono
Ngawi-Caruban(N) 7,609 - 865 - 1,109 - 9,582 -
Caruban-Nganjuk 12,599 9,694 1,909 1,229 1,462 529 15,970 11,452
Nganjuk-Kertosono 10,766 10,250 1,701 815 1,050 611 13,517 11,676
Note: Group-I=Sedan,Jeep,Kijang,Taxi, Small/Medium Bus, Pick-up,Truck(3/4ton),)
Group-IIA=Large(55 seats),Truck(2xle)
Remarks
Group-IIB = 3axle, Trailer
(S): south route, (N): north route, F/S: September of 2005, Study: May of 2006

p
Secong G ayer G a la n
22.382
SURAKARTA
Kartosuro Palu 1 2 .2 0 2
BOYOLALI
Blando 1 2 .8 6 5 M a n tin g a n
Selo 18.832
24.986
Kaprekan Jetlonom G a m o lo n g 9 .5 8 2 NG
Muntilan Delanggu ng SRAGEN
KALIURANG SUKO 2 0 .1 6 0 7
Sangkal Putung Cawang
Ngu 1 5 .4 9 0
24.579
SLEMAN KLATEN SURAKARTA Ma
o su ro P a lu r
38.225 18.454 KARANGANYAR
Prambanan Grogal
Bulu 1 8 .8 3 2
YOGYAKARTA M
Krenderan C e m o ro s e w e
e la n g g u
Blimbing
Yogyakarta – Surakarta (Solo) Section Surakarta (Solo) - Mantingan Section

1 2 .2 0 2
M a n tin g a n B a n y u u rip
Pajeng
Padas 9 Banyuurip
9 .5 8 2 NGAW I
AGEN Padas 9.582
7 .7 7 2 1 1 .3 4 4 NGAWI 15.970
Wilangon 13.517
7.772
1 2 .0 9 3 11.344 NGANJUK
8 .5 9 1 12.093 Caruban Kertosono
M a o s p a ti 10 8.591
10.003 11.452 11.676
M A D IU N Maospati
GANYAR MADIUN

M AGETAN U le ra n MAGETAN Uleran

Mantingan - Ngawi Section Ngawi – Kertosono Section

Note; Figures in the F/S data
Figures in the study data

Figure 3.2-3 Traffic Volume at Each Location

3-4
 Table 3.2-3 Traffic Volume on Tangelan-Merak Toll Road
Year
Month
2003 2004 2005 2006
January 1,880,277 1,978,276 2,093,880 1,980,662
February 1,651,493 1,796,862 1,921,849 1,818,531
March 1,831,481 1,946,006 2,121,884 1,993,091
April 1,758,192 1,844,930 2,048,320 1,927,233
May 1,858,637 1,981,066 2,148,405 -
Traffic survey
June 1,860,102 2,013,991 2,156,877 -
conducted in
the F/S
July 2,004,239 2,129,871 2,310,138 -
August 1,912,491 2,101,240 2,270,167 -
September 1,894,286 2,068,690 2,244,444 -
October 2,029,482 2,161,946 2,066,010 -
November 1,842,182 2,072,564 1,881,388 Gasoline
- Price
hike
December 1,967,800 2,199,801 2,058,476 -
Total 22,490,662 24,295,243 25,321,838 7,719,517
Average 1,874,222 2,024,604 2,114,479 1,929,879
Gasoline Price
Remarks 2,400 Rp/l before and 4,500 Rp/l after October of 2005
Source: PT. MARGA MANDASAKTI, May 2006

400,000
LEGEND
Tangerang - Merak
350,000
Surabaya - Gempol
Asian Monetary Crisis
Inter Urban

Belawan - Tg. Morawa (North Sumatra)

TRAFFIC VOLUME (VEH / DAY)

300,000 Palimanan - Kanci (Cirebon)

Jagorawi ( Jkt - Bogor - Ciawi )

Jakarta - Cikampek
250,000
Cipularang ( Cikampek-
Padalarang/Bandung )
Jatingaleh - Kaligawe (Semarang)
200,000 Cawang - Tomang - Pluit (Jkt Inner
Urban

Ring Road)
Pondok Pinang - Kampung Rambutan
(JORR)
150,000 Jakarta - Tangerang

Prof. Dr. Ir. Sedyatmo ( Airport Toll

Road )
Padalarang - Cileunyi ( Bandung )
100,000

50,000

-
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
YEAR
Source: prepared with data from
MPW, May 2006 Figure 3.2-4 Traffic Growth of Toll Roads

(3) Roadside OD Survey

OD survey data were used for revising OD table established in the study conducted in
October of 2001 by the IBRD – “FINAL REPORT OF JAVA ARTERIAL NETWORK
STUDY (JARNS)”. The OD table was not prepared in the F/S, as the F/S forecasted
the future traffic volume on the toll road by using a theoretical method, the method of

3-5
which doesn’t require road network in the study regions.
(4) Willingness - To - Pay (WTP) Survey
The main purpose of WTP survey is to reflect its data to prediction of diversion rate.
An example of simplified summary table of WTP survey result is shown below for
reference (Table 3.2-4).

Table 3.2-4 Part of Summary Table of WTP Survey Result

No. Time Difference x 60 Toll Ratex1000 Toll Rate/Time difference
Sample
2 30 250
1 1.5 20 222
0.5 10 333
2 30 250
2 1.5 20 222
0.5 5 167
2 40 333
3 1.5 40 444
0.5 5 167
2 30 250
4 1.5 20 222
0.5 5 167
2 30 250
5 1.5 20 222
0.5 5 167
2 30 250
6 1.5 20 222
0.5 5 167
2 30 250
7 1.5 20 222
0.5 5 167
2 30 250
8 1.5 30 333
0.5 5 167
2 40 333
9 1.5 30 333
0.5 10 333
2 30 250
10 1.5 20 222
0.5 5 167
2 30 250
11 1.5 20 222
0.5 10 333
2 30 250
12 1.5 20 222
0.5 5 167
2 30 250
13 1.5 20 222
0.5 10 333
Note: total number of samples is 1,610.

3-6
3.3 DEMAND FORECAST

3.3.1 Basic Policy

In the study the demand forecast of the F/S was reviewed following the procedure
below.

• Present and future OD matrix tables of the IBRD study- “FINAL REPORT OF
JAVA ARTERIAL NETWORK STUDY (JARNS), 2001”- were utilized as the
basis of the study.
• Since OD table of the IBRD study covers entire Java Island, the scale of which
was simplified focusing on the regions where the study section is located.
• The present OD table was revised based on the roadside OD survey results
conducted by the study. As for the present traffic volume, adjustment was made
targeting around traffic volume obtained from both the F/S and the study from the
reasons described in Section 3.2.2(2).

3.3.2 OD Zoning System

OD zoning system applied in the study is shown in Figure 3.3-1 and in Appendix 3-1.

48
36
1 17

2 5
39 18 19
86 88
83 84
16 85
6 20
15 89 64
12 21
3 30 87
11 82 63
10 31 66
23 38 37 81 79 68 65
13 40 35 80 73
32 41 67
8 69 60
23
4 33 77 75 74 72 70 62 61
14 22 59
25
34 78 76
7 9 47 26 24 27 54
57
29 53 55 56
48 58
43 46 42 50
44
45 49 51 52

Figure 3.3-1 Study Area Zone Plan

3-7
3.3.3 Present and Future Trip Pattern

Figure 3.3-2 shows that high trip growth is expected in the future due to the rapid
socio-economic development in Java Island.

Jakarta
Semarang Surabaya
2
1
5
10
3 6
17
8 16
4
7
13 14
12 15
9
11

Yogyakarta

Year 2005

Jakarta
Semarang
Surabaya

2
1
5
10
3 6
17
8 16
4
7
13 14
12 15
9
11

Legend
: 50,000 veh/day
Yogyakarta
: 100,000 veh/day

: 200,000 veh/day

Year 2030

Figure 3.3-2 Future Desire Lines

3-8
3.4 FUTURE TRAFFIC VOLUMES

3.4.1 Basic Policy

The future traffic volume on the study section was reviewed following the policies
below.

• Present and future road network for the study regions established in the study of
IBRD (refer to Section 3.2.2(3)) is basically applicable.
• By adding toll roads of study section, Semarang - Solo section and Surabaya -
Kertosono section, to the above road network, basic road network for the traffic
assignment analysis is to be established.
• Toll roads of Semarang-Solo and Surabaya-Kertosono are to be constructed
before construction of whole/part of the study section.
• The national road in the north corridor is to be widened to 4-lane road in 2020.

Forecasting of future traffic volume on the study toll road in the F/S was carried out
without considering the road network by using theoretical method. However, for the
section between Solo and Kertosono, diversion traffic from national road in the north
corridor between Semarang and Surabaya shall be highly expected, since two toll
roads, one is from Semarang and the other is from Surabaya, to be connected with the
study section will be constructed earlier than construction of the study section
according to the Status of Land Acquisition for Toll Road, 7 April 2006, MPW.

3.4.2 Traffic Assignment Procedure

(1) Assignment Procedure

In the study, the capacity restraint assignment method was used, the method of which
is the most straightforward technique among the network models, and the most
efficient one, particularly where the number of the trip matrix is relatively large. This
assignment is based on the speed-flow relationship. The traffic assignment procedure
is shown in Figure 3.4-1 as a flow chart.

In this assignment technique, and calculating the required travel time for each link
according to its travel time and road conditions, the program determines the fastest
routes between each origin and destination by evaluating the travel time on links, and
assigns the trips between the given origins and destinations to these routes starting at
the destinations and getting back to the origins. As congestion increases to a certain
level as traffic volume increases, alternative routes are introduced to handle the
unassigned traffic. Zone-to-zone routing is built, which is the fastest path from each
zone to any other, all trips are assigned to these optimum routes.

3-9
 Computer software of the JICA STRADA (System for Traffic Demand Analysis) was
utilized for the traffic assignment, which has all necessary tools for transportation
planning and was developed to analyze transportation problems, model demand
forecast and develop project proposals.

Road Network Data Speed-Flow Relationship

Initial Speeds on Links Scenario of Toll Road

Toll Rate Development for
Traffic Assignment

Shortest Route using Shortest Route using Road

To be repeated up to the

Road Network Only Network including toll

(Without Project) roads
WTP Survey
Result
Last Increment

Diversion Rate Model for

Inter-Urban toll Road

OD Traffic Data Divided by

the Number of Increments

Assignment on Shortest Route on

Both Networks for Each

Assigned Traffic Volume

on Road Network

Figure 3.4-1 Traffic Assignment for the Road Network in the Study Regions

(2) Speed-Flow Relationship

The speed-flow relationship used in the course of the traffic assignment analysis is
shown in Figure 3.4-2. With the traffic volume increasing in traffic volume in excess
of 0.3 Qmax, the travel speed
begins to decrease gradually Vmax
up to Vmin which is about
0.10xVmax at Qmax. After
reaching Vmin, the travel speed
of Vmin is assumed to be kept
Vmin =
constantly in order to avoid 0.1Vmax
unrealistic assignments in the 0.3Qmax Qmax

assignment applications. Figure 3.4-2 Speed-Flow Relationship

3 - 10
(3) Time Evaluation Value
The time evaluation Value (TEV) is applied to evaluate the travel time on links of road
network in use for persons, either passenger or assistants in trucks , in all vehicle
categories. The TEV prepared in the F/S as shown in Table 3.4-1 was utilize as the
basis of estimating the TEV for the study. As for present and future TEV, it was
estimated by considering the inflation rate of 7.2%.

Table 3.4-1 Time Evaluation Value (Rp/hour)

Vehicle Category Java Sumatra Kalimantan Sulawesi
Light Vehicle 15,437 14,105 18,448 11,560
Mini Bus 17,159 15,679 20,506 12,850
Medium Vehicle 35,022 32,001 41,853 26,226
Big Bus 72,104 65,884 86,167 53,996
Source : Studi HLRIP, Ditjen Prasarana Wilayah 2001

(4) Incremental Assignment with Diversion Rate Method

This assignment incorporates the diversion rate method with the formula 3.4.2(1),
developed by the Japan Highway Public Corporation for inter-urban expressway, into
incremental assignment which divides the input OD traffic data into certain
increments and assigns each increment to the minimum route.

1
P= × 100 − − − − − − − − − − − −3.4.2(1)
1+ α (X / S)β
Where, P: Diversion Rate (%)
X : Toll Rate (Rp) / Time Difference (minutes)
= C /( t1 − t 2 )
t1 : Travel Time when passing a Non-Toll Road (minutes)
t2 : Travel Time when passing a Toll Road (minutes)
S : Future Shift Ratio
α , β : Local Factors

The diversion rate method is applied to estimate the proportion of traffic volumes
diverted from the future ordinary road network to the newly developed toll roads. The
factors having the greatest influence on the routes taken by drivers are the comparative
travel time and distance. Several diversion rate models have been developed for toll
roads within urban areas and for inter-urban toll roads. Since having been developed
for inter-urban toll roads such as the study section, the formula 3.4.2(1) was utilised
for the study.

3 - 11
 The steps of assignment per increment are shown in Figure 3.4-3.

Step 0: Initialize
Set the increment n=0 and the link traffic pattern X(0)=0.

Step 1: Link cost calculation

Calculate the link cost t(n) by the traffic pattern.

Step 2: Minimum routes search

Search two minimum routes under the link cost of t(n) : the route that
includes road links and the other that excludes them. The former search
covers the entire links in the network, ignoring the toll rate resistance.
The latter search avoids the road links in the network.

Step 3: Calculation of traffic diversion and assignment

Obtain the diversion rate by calculating the toll rate resistance and travel
time per OD pair on two minimum routes, apply the diversion rate to the
increment and assign it to two minimum routes to obtain the new link
traffic X(ｎ).

Step 4: Repeating of calculation

Set the increment n=n+1 and go to Step 1 up to the last increment.

Figure 3.4 -3 Assignment Steps per Increment

Table 3.4-2 and Figure 3.4-4 presents the results of traffic assignment verification
process on observed and assignment traffic volumes with a correlation factor of 0.91.

Table 3.4-2 Observed and Assigned Traffic Volumes

Location Section Observed(a) Assigned(b) (c=b-a) (d=c/a)
TC 01 Wates Yogyakarta - Wates 9,940 10,448 508 5%
TC 02 Tempel Yogyakarta - Magelang 15,987 14,668 -1,319 -8%
TC 03 Piyungan Wonosari - Yogyakarta 6,372 6,286 -86 -1%
TC 04 Karang Anyar Kr ANYAR - Palur 21,127 19,656 -1,471 -7%
TC 05 Magetan Madiun - Ngawi 7,414 7,050 -364 -5%
TC 06 Nganjuk Madiun - Nganjuk 11,452 10,298 -1,154 -10%
TC 07 Kediri Kertosono - Kediri 9,235 8,411 -824 -9%
TC 08 Kertosono Jombang - Kertosono 14,364 15,903 1,539 11%
TC OD1 Prambanan Yogyakarta - Klaten 17,247 21,533 4,286 25%
TC OD2 Boyolali Boyolali - Kertosura 11,865 12,456 591 5%
TC OD3 Kartosuro SOLO - Yogyakarta 17,600 21,087 3,487 20%
TC OD4 Palur PALUR - SRAGEN 15,490 13,119 -2,371 -15%
TC OD5 Mantingan Ngawi - Sragen 9,582 10,220 638 7%
TC OD6 Ngawi Caruban - Mantingan 7,772 7,324 -448 -6%
TC OD7 Nganjuk Kediri - Kertosono 9,235 12,406 3,171 34%
TC OD8 Nganjuk Kertosono - Nganjuk 11,676 9,330 -2,346 -20%

3 - 12
 25,000

20,000

Assigned Volumes (veh./day)

R = 0.91
15,000

10,000

5,000

0
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Observed Volumes (veh./day)

Figure 3.4-4 Traffic Assignment Verification

Local factors of α, βof the formula 3.4.2(1) were determined with the least square
method based on the WTP survey result as shown in Figure 3.4 -5 and Table 3.4-3.

100.00
90.00
Diversion Rate Curve
80.00 obtained from WTP
(P%)

Survey Data
rate (%))

70.00
(diversionRate

60.00
50.00
Diversion

40.00 WTP Data

30.00
P

20.00
Correlation Coefficient R2 = 0.9706
10.00
0.00
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
X (toll rate (Rp) / time difference (minutes))
X (Rp/Minute)

Figure 3.4 -5 Determination of αandβfrom WTP Survey Result

3 - 13
 Table 3.4-3 α and β for Diversion Rate
Vehicle Group α β
-6
Group- I* 7.220 x 10 2.095
Group- IIA** 3.088 x 10-6 2.095
-6
Group- IIB** 1.690 x 10 2.095
* : obtained from Figure 3.4-4
**: obtained by following the F/S method; toll rates of Group-IIA and Group-IIB are 1.5 times
and twice that of Group-I, respectively.

As for the Shift Ratio (S), it was determined based on the growth of GRDP per capita
of Java Island as shown in Table 3.4-4. The S after year 2020 was extended.

Table 3.4 -4 Growth of GRDP per Capita in Java Island (per year)
2005-2010 2010-2020
G ro w th o f G R D P (% ) 6 .3 4 6 .9 1
G ro w th o f P o p u la tio n (% ) 1 .1 2 1 .0 9
G ro w th o f G R D P p e r C a p ita (% ) 5 .1 6 5 .7 6
S h ift R a tio S (Y e a r 2 0 0 6 ; S = 1 .0 ) 1 .2 9 (2 0 1 0 ) 2 .2 6 (2 0 2 0 )
S o u rc e o f G R D P a n d P o p u la tio n (2 0 0 5 - 2 0 2 0 ): F / S R e p o rt

3.4.3 Future Traffic Volume

(1) Scenario of Toll Road Development

As described in Section 3.4.1, the scenario of toll road development was presumed as
follows:

• Toll roads between Semarang and Solo, and between Surabaya and Kertosono are
to be developed earlier than the study section.
• Either case that Yogya-Solo section only is constructed or that Solo-Kertosono
section only is constructed is considered.
• Operation of the study section will be opened from 2010.

(2) Assignment Cases

The following cases for traffic assignment were analyzed.
Semarang Surabaya

Yogya Matingan Ngawi Kertosono

Solo

Section I Section II Section III Section IV

Case1: with all sections in 2010, 2020 and 2030.

3 - 14
 Semarang Surabaya

Yogya Matingan Ngawi Kertosono

Solo

Section I Section II Section III Section IV

Case2: with section I only in 2010, 2020 and 2030.

Semarang Surabaya

Yogya Matingan Ngawi Kertosono

Solo

Section I Section II Section III Section IV

Case3: with section II, III and IV below in 2010, 2020 and 2030.

Semarang Surabaya

Yogya Matingan Ngawi Kertosono

Solo

Section I Section II Section III Section IV

Case4: without toll on all sections in 2010, 2020 and 2030 for Economic

(3) Study on Maximum Revenue Level

In order to search the maximum revenue level for the study section, the calculation
varying toll rates from Rp100/km to Rp 1,000/km as shown in Figure 3.4-6 was
carried out in Group-I with case 1 in 2010. From the calculated results, the maximum
revenue level of Group-I is presumed to be about Rp 400/km.
1,400

1,200
Revenue (million Rp)

1,000

800

600
Maximum
400 Revenue
Level
200

0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Toll Rate (Rp/km)

Figure 3.4-6 Searching the Maximum Revenue for the Study Section

3 - 15
 (4) Study on Toll Rate of Socially Acceptable Level
Table 3.4-5 shows the toll rates of existing toll roads by toll road type - inter-urban
type and urban type. According to the Table, toll rates of existing toll roads in
inter-urban toll roads vary from around Rp100/km to around Rp354/km.

Table 3.4-5 Toll Rates of Existing Toll Roads

LENGTH TOLL RATE (Rp) Opening
NO. Toll Road GROUP I GROUP IIA GROUP IIB
(KM) Toll Rate Per Km Toll Rate Per Km Toll Rate Per Km Year
1 Tangerang - Merak 72 15,000 208 21,000 292 26,000 361 1996
Interurban Toll Roads

2 Surabaya - Gempol 42 4,500 107 7,000 167 9,000 214 1986

3 Surabaya - Gresik 21 6,000 286 8,000 381 11,500 548 -
Belawan - Tg. Morawa (North
4 34.4 3,500 102 6,000 174 6,500 189
Sumatra) 1986
5 Palimanan - Kanci 26.3 3,000 114 3,500 133 5,000 190 1998
6 Jagorawi 46 4,500 98 6,000 130 8,000 174 1978
7 Jakarta - Cikampek 72 10,000 139 17,000 236 20,000 278 1987
Cipularang ( Cikampek-
8 41 14,500 354 22,000 537 29,000 707 2003
Padalarang/Bandung )
Jatingaleh - Kaligawe
1 24.6 3,000 122 4,000 163 5,000 203
(Semarang) 1983
Cawang - Tomang - Pluit (Jkt
Urban Toll Roads

2 18 4,500 250 6,000 333 7,500 417

Inner Ring Road) 1987
3 Jakarta - Serpong 7 3,000 429 5,500 786 6,500 929 1999
4 Ujung Pandang 7 1,500 214 2,500 357 3,000 429 -
Pondok Pinang - Kampung
5 14.8 5,000 338 5,000 338 5,500 372
Rambutan (JORR) 1995
6 Jakarta - Tangerang 27 3,000 111 3,500 130 4,500 167 1984
7 Prof. Dr. Ir. Sedyatmo 13.5 5,000 370 6,000 444 7,000 519 1985
8 Padalarang - Cileunyi 46.6 4,500 97 7,500 161 9,000 193 1991
Source: No. 309/KPTS/M/2005, No.374/KPTS/M/2005
No.165/KPTS/M/2006 from WPT
100.00
Figure 3.4-7 shows the relation- 90.00
ship between toll rate and 80.00
WTP DATA
D iv e r s io n R a t e ( P % )

diversion rate based on the WTP 70.00

P (diversion rate (%))

survey for Group-I in case that 60.00

difference in travel speeds 50.00
between vehicles using toll-road 40.00
and non-toll road is assumed to 30.00
be 60km/hour. It can be 20.00
anticipated that more than 70 % 10.00
of users will accept a toll rate of 0.00
Rp200/km according to the 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Figure. Toll Rate (Rp/km)

X (Rp/Minute)

Figure 3.4-7 Relationship between Toll

From both the Table and the Rate and WTP Data
Figure, a toll rate of Rp200/km
for Group-I could be regarded as socially acceptable level in the study.

3 - 16
 (5) Future Traffic Volume
Calculation Cases for Traffic Assignment
Future traffic volume on the study section was forecast for the cases shown in Table
3.4-6 considering the convenience for cash flow analysis, economic benefit analysis
and review of the F/S results. Regarding assignment cases in the Table, refer to
Section 3.4.3(2).

Table 3.4-6 Calculation Cases

Year
Assignment Case 10 20 30
S.A.L M.R.L S.A.L M.R.L S.A.L M.R.L
Toll Rate
200 400 400 800 800 1,000
(Rp/km)
Case 1
Case
Case1-10S Case1-10M Case1-20S Case1-20M Case1-30S Case1-30M
Name
Toll Rate
200 400 400 800 800 1,000
(Rp/km)
Case 2
Case
Case2-10S Case2-10M Case2-20S Case2-20M Case2-30S Case2-30M
Name
Toll Rate
200 400 400 800 800 1,000
(Rp/km)
Case 3
Case
Case3-10S Case3-10M Case3-20S Case3-20M Case3-30S Case3-30M
Name
- - - - - - -
Case 4 Case
Case4-1 Case4-2 Case4-3
Name
• Toll Rates of Group-I are presented here. Toll rates of Group-IIA and
Group-IIB were to be 1.5 times and twice those of Group-I, respectively.
• S.A.L: Socially Acceptable Revenue Level.
Remarks
• M.R.L: Maximum Revenue Level.
• Toll rates of S.A.L and M.R.L after 2010 were estimated at a inflation rate of
7.2%

Comparison with the F/S Results

Figure 3.4-8 shows the future total traffic volume on the toll road by segment in 2010
with the F/S results. The segment means a section between two interchanges
(regarding relationship between segment numbers and interchange names, refer to
Table 3.4-7). Traffic volume at the case1-10S in 2010 forecast by this study is
approximately corresponding to the F/S, the toll rate of which is Rp450/km for
Group-I. Traffic volumes forecast by the study in 2020 and 2030 are shown in case of
the toll rate of the socially acceptable level as shown in Figure 3.4-9. With respect to
the case numbers, refer to Table 3.4-6.

Traffic volume on Segment 1 (Yogay-Prambanan) obtained from the study is expected

to be much less than the results of the F/S. As the reasons for this, the following are
pointed out.

3 - 17
 • There are many alternative routes in the area.
• The arterial road running parallel with the toll road has been widened to 4-lane.

F/S
35000 Case 1-10S
Traffic Volume (V/Day)
30000 Case 1-10M
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 1314
Segment No.

Figure 3.4-8 Traffic Volume in 2010

F/S(2020)
Case 1-20S
140000
F/S(2030)
120000
Traffic Volume (V/Day)

Case 1-30S
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Segment No.

Figure 3.4-9 Traffic Volume in 2020 and 2030

Assigned Traffic Volume

Tables 3.4-7, 3.4 -8 and 3.4-9 show traffic volume of all calculation cases by vehicle
group except for case 4 and cases of maximum revenue level. Figures 3.4-10 and
3.4-11 show the distribution of the assigned traffic volumes with VCR (Vehicle
Capacity Ratio) - the former is for 2006 and 2010, the latter for 2020 and 2030.

3 - 18
 Table 3.4-7 Future Traffic Volume of Case 1

Mantingang-
Section Name Yogya - Solo Solo - Mantingang Ngawi - Kertosolo
Ngawi
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Segment Name Yogya - Pramb.- Klaten - Delanggu - Kartosuro- Solo - K. Anyar - Sragen - Ngawi - Madiun - Caruban - Nganjuk -
Pramb. Klaten Delanggu Kartosuro Solo K. Anyar Sragen Ngawi Madiun Caruban Nganjuk Kertosono
Distance (km) 8.42 12.20 11.65 7.52 13.45 10.45 13.76 50.75 23.49 8.54 35.61 23.19
Grp-I 26,765 18,920 19,439 16,834 17,092 20,109 13,255 8,872 10,393 8,997 11,107 9,778
Grp-IIA 2,244 2,178 1,841 1,846 1,395 1,640 3,384 1,512 823 1,222 1,641 1,519

F/S
Grp-IIB 533 913 958 993 270 317 1,401 1,106 305 558 1,281 957
Total 29,542 22,011 22,238 19,673 18,757 22,066 18,040 11,490 11,521 10,777 14,029 12,254
Grp-I 10,937 14,336 13,923 14,266 17,968 12,358 12,759 8,009 7,499 8,524 8,360 8,451
Grp-IIA 5,228 7,016 6,926 7,062 8,113 5,212 5,446 4,380 4,193 4,519 4,634 4,812

Case 1-10S
Grp-IIB 1,023 1,590 1,316

Study
1,597 1,625 2,025 1,519 1,522 1,355 1,272 1,354 1,359
Total 17,188 22,942 22,446 22,953 28,106 19,089 19,727 13,744 12,964 14,397 14,353 14,579

3 - 19
Grp-I 58,399 40,927 41,922 36,232 37,276 43,857 28,843 19,401 22,660 19,705 24,318 21,455
Grp-IIA 4,560 4,486 3,757 3,765 2,881 3,387 7,182 3,149 1,696 2,534 3,408 3,151

F/S
Grp-IIB 1,139 1,953 2,049 2,123 586 689 3,045 2,403 663 1,213 2,783 2,079
Total 64,098 47,366 47,728 42,120 40,743 47,933 39,070 24,953 25,019 23,452 30,509 26,685
Grp-I 13,933 21,098 20,156 23,127 27,911 29,787 30,200 16,875 13,240 15,541 15,215 20,572
Grp-IIA 6,389 9,731 9,424 10,484 12,177 10,066 10,244 9,311 8,165 9,167 9,289 11,342

Case 1-20S
Study
Grp-IIB 1,050 1,343 1,355 1,600 2,960 2,450 2,450 2,100 1,515 1,780 1,762 2,518
Total 21,372 32,172 30,935 35,211 43,048 42,303 42,894 28,286 22,920 26,488 26,266 34,432
Grp-I 109,722 76,895 78,764 68,073 69,345 81,586 53,656 36,092 42,154 36,657 45,238 39,913
Grp-IIA 8,567 8,429 7,058 7,074 5,359 6,301 13,361 5,858 3,156 4,713 6,339 5,862

F/S
Grp-IIB 2,139 3,670 3,849 3,989 1,090 1,282 5,664 4,471 1,234 2,257 5,178 3,867
Total 120,428 88,994 89,671 79,136 75,794 89,169 72,681 46,421 46,544 43,627 56,755 49,642
Grp-I 53,898 56,531 53,403 57,034 74,062 65,905 70,807 36,482 33,747 41,104 37,776 42,322
Grp-IIA 23,003 22,835 21,896 23,029 30,820 22,052 22,883 18,314 16,939 18,911 19,359 21,386

Case 1-30S
Grp-IIB 2,805 3,191 3,183 3,326 5,702 4,495 4,505 3,640 3,662 4,163 4,501 6,587

Study
Total 79,706 82,557 78,482 83,389 110,584 92,452 98,195 58,436 54,348 64,178 61,636 70,295
 Table 3.4-8 Future Traffic Volume of Case 2
Section Name Yogaya - Solo
Segment No. 1 2 3 4 5
Yogya - Pramb.- Klaten - Delanggu - Kartosuro-
Segment Name
Pramb. Klaten Delanggu Kartosuro Solo
Distance (km) 8.42 12.20 11.65 7.52 13.45
Grp-I 8,989 11,143 10,584 10,606 8,584
Case2-30S Case2-20S Case2-10S

Grp-IIA 4,275 5,531 5,382 5,392 4,243

Grp-IIB 411 652 652 652 536
Total 13,675 17,326 16,618 16,650 13,363
Grp-I 15,659 18,928 15,786 15,805 10,052
Grp-IIA 6,647 8,456 6,817 6,829 4,393
Grp-IIB 920 1,409 943 943 704
Total 23,226 28,793 23,546 23,577 15,149
Grp-I 51,063 50,422 49,417 49,830 47,294
Grp-IIA 21,673 21,136 20,127 20,287 19,159
Grp-IIB 2,406 2,457 2,675 2,687 2,336
Total 75,142 74,015 72,219 72,804 68,789

Table 3.4-9 Future Traffic Volume of Case 3

Mantingan -
Section Name Solo - Mantingan Ngawi - Kertosono
Ngawi
Segment No. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Solo - K. Anyar - Sragen - Ngawi - Madiun - Caruban - Nganjuk -
Segment Name
K. Anyar Sragen Ngawi Madiun Caruban Nganjuk Kertosono
Distance (km) 10.45 13.76 50.75 23.49 8.54 35.61 23.19
Grp-I 10,781 10,872 6,370 5,998 7,358 7,183 7,395
Case3-30S Case3-20S Case3-10S

Grp-IIA 5,120 5,214 3,286 3,203 3,856 3,945 4,138

Grp-IIB 857 857 622 607 762 759 735
Total 16,758 16,943 10,278 9,808 11,976 11,887 12,268
Grp-I 26,578 26,774 16,145 11,564 13,949 13,625 19,030
Grp-IIA 9,615 9,770 8,354 6,506 7,537 7,667 9,787
Grp-IIB 1,637 1,637 1,591 1,372 1,635 1,625 2,174
Total 37,830 38,181 26,090 19,442 23,121 22,917 30,991
Grp-I 58,124 61,393 29,062 30,444 40,048 36,692 40,608
Grp-IIA 18,669 19,285 14,371 15,348 18,183 18,596 20,377
Grp-IIB 2,704 2,715 2,569 3,176 3,884 3,829 5,885
Total 79,497 83,393 46,002 48,968 62,115 59,117 66,870

3 - 20
LEGEND :
( Mode: + 1 + 2 + 3 )
Traffic Flow
VCR<1.00
VCR<1.20
VCR<1.50
1.50<VCR
scale: 1mm =20000(pcu)

(a) Year 2006

LEGEND :
( Mode: + 1 + 2 + 3 )
Traffic Flow
VCR<1.00
VCR<1.20
VCR<1.50
1.50<VCR
scale: 1mm =20000(pcu)

(b) Year 2010

Figure 3.4-10 Assigned Traffic Volumes in 2006 and 2010

3 - 21
 LEGEND :
( Mode: + 1 + 2 + 3 )
Traffic Flow
VCR<1.00
VCR<1.20
VCR<1.50
1.50<VCR
scale: 1mm =30000(pcu)

Year 2020

LEGEND :
( Mode: + 1 + 2 + 3 )
Traffic Flow
VCR<1.00
VCR<1.20
VCR<1.50
1.50<VCR
scale: 1mm =50000(pcu)

Year 2030

Figure 3.4-11 Assigned Traffic Volumes in 2020 and 2030

3 - 22
 CHAPTER 4

COST ESTIMATION
AND
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
 CHAPTER 4

COST ESTIMATION AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

4.1 REVIEW OF PROJECT COST

To recognize the required investments for project implementation and to conduct both
the economic and financial analysis, the project costs should be accurately estimated.
The investment cost is estimated based on the engineering design of the different project
components and the payment for main construction equipment required for earth works
and structure works. The unit price for each item and component are based on latest
data received from the local government’s Basic Prices Guidelines and from the Journal
of Building Construction and Interior Material Prices. These obtained unit prices are
first compared with unit prices applied in the Feasibility Study reports for each section
of the toll road, then they were checked by the market prices of similar projects
considering the difference between supplier, dealer and distributor. In addition, the cost
for both routine and periodic maintenance works and that of toll road operation is
considered in this study based on information obtained from different toll road operators,
especially those applied by Jasa Marga as the biggest toll road operator in Indonesia.

The other main component, beside construction, maintenance and operation costs, is
land acquisition cost which plays very significant role in supporting the project
construction. This cost is determined and evaluated based on various external factors
including applied laws and regulation, biro crates experiences, socio community culture,
agrarian aspects etc.

In general, the applied unit costs in the Feasibility Study reports are reasonable when
compared with collected and analyzed unit costs of other resources. In addition,
quantities estimated based on the preliminary design of the Feasibility Study to be used
in constructing the project are accepted for the carriageway road sections only. As for
the structures along the toll road, including bridges and interchanges, information in the
preliminary design are not enough to accept their estimated costs as many items and soil
characteristics are not considered or underestimated.

It should be noted here that the project cost is estimated in the Feasibility Study for two
stages; an initial stage in which the toll road has a carriage way of two lanes for each
direction, while in the final stage the carriageway is composed of three lanes in each
direction.

4-1
4.1.1 Construction Cost

Under the Feasibility Study estimations, the quantities of major construction items are
calculated based on the design data, which are presented in the preliminary engineering
design drawings, including the existing road conditions. The main work items for
quantity calculation, among others, are described as follows:

- Clearing the working site:

This work covers clearing, demolished, banishment of bushes and burns clearance of
the working site, undertaken within ROW.

- Drainage Works
This work’s quantity is generally calculated based on its types, lengths and the type of
works.

- Asphalt Pavement
The asphalt treated base, asphalt concrete binder course and the asphalt concrete
wearing course pavement are used and calculated in ton unit weight. The quantity is
computed by width of cross section and the length time’s thickness of the design
pavement.

- Concrete Pavement
The volumes is calculated by multiplying width of cross sections time the distance
between those two cross sections, thickness 27 cm and 10 cm for lean concrete
comply with the typical cross section drawing.

- Structure Works
The concrete quantities are calculated based on the dimension and the structure
component forms the drawings design and the pay items.

- Toll Plaza and Toll Facility

At entrance and exit approach of interchange, toll plaza and toll facility are planned.

A summary of the construction cost estimated by the Feasibility Study for each of the
main items is presented in Table 4.1-1 for the 4 sections of the toll road.

4-2
 4.1-1 F/S Construction Cost (Rp million)
Jogjakarta Solo- Mantingan Ngawi-
No. Item Total
-Solo Mantingan -Ngawi Kertosono
Length (km) 41.9 56.1 34.0 87.0 219.0
1 General 12,326 17,464 8,942 22,238 60,970
2 Cleaning of site 6,202 6,086 3,642 9,085 25,015
3 Demolition - - - - -
4 Earth Works 64,889 319,379 153,755 532,869 1,070,892
5 Structure Excavation 3,133 9,352 2,878 7,225 22,588
6 Drainage 19,087 56,842 32,468 80,113 188,510
7 Sub-grade - - - - -
8 Base Course 45,541 20,630 8,750 22,094 97,015
9 Pavement 348,453 415,683 227,247 468,552 1,459,935
10 Structure Concrete 346,966 418,168 196,814 436,835 1,398,783
11 Structure Steel - - - - -
12 Other Works 134,909 169,944 94,266 243,293 642,412
13 Lighting 22,899 27,626 15,879 41,473 107,877
14 Toll Plaza Works 16,538 7,296 2,432 7,296 33,562
15 Protection of Utilities - - - - -
16 Toll Facility Works 18,567 4,323 7,039 4,323 34,252
Total 1,472,793 1,472,793 754,112 1,875,396 5,141,811

4.1.2 Land Acquisition Cost

(1) Method

A land value and prices survey is conducted to obtain the land value based on the land
use, through out the entire planned toll road and the adjacent area (if needed), with the
purpose of estimating the present value of land to be acquired for the construction of the
toll road. Coverage of the work for this task of the land price survey is a compilation of
land use price data, i.e.:
- Inventory and building investigation
- Mapping the land use value.
- Inventory of plantation and others goods

The working methods of the surveys can be grouped as follows:

- Collection of secondary data
- Survey of land use and land prices.

4-3
(2) Price Estimation of land Procurement

Analysis and calculation made based on seconded and field surveyed data were for the
price estimate of the lands, building, plantation and other goods that will be acquired.
These analytical results were put in the Land Value Map, which presents the
information regarding the land-use, and photo’s presenting actual land-use. The above
price estimates was presented in table form classified “Estimasi NJOP” (Tax Object
Selling Value Estimate) and “Estimasi Pasar” (Market Price Estimate).

Table 4.1-2 presents a summary for the estimated land acquisition costs for the four
sections of the toll road based on the four major items of land-use activities of lands,
buildings, trees/plants and utilities. It should be noticed that the estimated cost is the
same as the market price except for lands which is treated differently with an estimated
cost as the average of market price and estimated tax rate.

4-4
 Table 4.1-2 Summary of Land Acquisition Cost
Yogya - Solo (Rp. 1,000)
Item Min. Tax Rate Max. Tax Rate Ave. Tax Rate Min. Market Price Max. Market Price Ave. Market Price Tax Rate Est. Market Est. Cost Estimate
Lands 36,404,177 75,830,263 56,248,147 180,947,245 562,744,040 371,845,642 61,161,741 379,513,528 220,337,635
Buildings 246,959,219 246,959,219 246,959,219 246,959,219 246,959,219 246,959,219 246,959,219 246,959,219 246,959,219
Trees/Plants 12,931,706 12,931,706 12,931,706 12,931,706 12,931,706 12,931,706 12,931,706 12,931,706 12,931,706
Utilities 3,041,031 3,041,031 3,041,031 3,041,031 3,041,031 3,041,031 3,041,031 3,041,031 3,041,031
Sub Total 299,336,133 338,762,219 319,180,103 443,879,201 825,675,996 634,777,598 324,093,697 642,445,484 483,269,591
Contingency 29,933,613 33,876,222 31,918,010 44,387,920 82,567,600 63,477,760 32,409,370 64,244,548 48,326,959
Total Cost 329,269,746 372,638,441 351,098,113 488,267,121 908,243,596 698,255,358 356,503,067 706,690,032 531,596,550

Solo - Mantingan (Rp. 1,000)

Item Min. Tax Rate Max. Tax Rate Ave. Tax Rate Min. Market Price Max. Market Price Ave. Market Price Tax Rate Est. Market Est. Cost Estimate
Lands 48,345,922 66,422,038 57,383,980 408,020,307 1,348,699,258 878,359,783 56,947,075 786,965,235 421,956,155
Buildings 174,900,136 174,900,136 174,900,136 174,900,136 174,900,136 174,900,136 174,900,136 174,900,136 174,900,136
Trees/Plants 1,915,670 1,915,670 1,915,670 1,915,670 1,915,670 1,915,670 1,915,670 1,915,670 1,915,670
Utilities 230,491 230,491 230,491 230,491 230,491 230,491 230,491 230,491 230,491
Sub Total 225,392,219 243,468,335 234,430,277 585,066,604 1,525,745,555 1,055,406,080 233,993,372 964,011,532 599,002,452
Contingency 22,539,222 24,346,834 23,443,028 58,506,660 152,574,556 105,540,608 23,399,337 96,401,153 59,900,245
Total Cost 247,931,441 267,815,169 257,873,305 643,573,264 1,678,320,111 1,160,946,688 257,392,709 1,060,412,685 658,902,697

Mantingan - Ngawi (Rp. 1,000)

4-5
Item Min. Tax Rate Max. Tax Rate Ave. Tax Rate Min. Market Price Max. Market Price Ave. Market Price Tax Rate Est. Market Est. Cost Estimate
Lands 16,640,823 100,977,046 58,808,934 253,948,894 360,429,840 307,189,367 59,369,550 306,442,667 182,906,108
Buildings 97,855,540 97,855,540 97,855,540 97,855,540 97,855,540 97,855,540 97,855,540 97,855,540 97,855,540
Trees/Plants 3,912,149 3,912,149 3,912,149 3,912,149 3,912,149 3,912,149 3,912,149 3,912,149 3,912,149
Utilities 118,513 118,513 118,513 118,513 118,513 118,513 118,513 118,513 118,513
Sub Total 118,527,025 202,863,248 160,695,136 355,835,096 462,316,042 409,075,569 161,255,752 408,328,869 284,792,310
Contingency 11,852,703 20,286,325 16,069,514 35,583,510 46,231,604 40,907,557 16,125,575 40,832,887 28,479,231
Total Cost 130,379,728 223,149,573 176,764,650 391,418,606 508,547,646 449,983,126 177,381,327 449,161,756 313,271,541

Ngawi - Kertosono (Rp. 1,000)

Item Min. Tax Rate Max. Tax Rate Ave. Tax Rate Min. Market Price Max. Market Price Ave. Market Price Tax Rate Est. Market Est. Cost Estimate
Lands 41,270,306 227,957,040 134,958,527 543,687,900 1,357,884,000 950,785,950 112,947,812 941,070,000 527,322,106
Buildings 165,475,500 165,475,500 165,475,500 165,475,500 165,475,500 165,475,500 165,475,500 165,475,500 165,475,500
Trees/Plants 13,616,653 13,616,653 13,616,653 13,616,653 13,616,653 13,616,653 13,616,653 13,616,653 13,616,653
Utilities 204,600 204,600 204,600 204,600 204,600 204,600 204,600 204,600 204,600
Teak Trees 228,979 228,979 228,979 228,979 228,979 228,979 228,979 228,979 228,979
Sub Total 220,796,038 407,482,772 314,484,259 723,213,632 1,537,409,732 1,130,311,682 292,473,544 1,120,595,732 706,847,838
Contingency 22,079,604 40,748,277 31,448,426 72,321,363 153,740,973 113,031,168 29,247,354 112,059,573 70,684,784
Total Cost 242,875,642 448,231,049 345,932,685 795,534,995 1,691,150,705 1,243,342,850 321,720,898 1,232,655,305 777,532,622

4-5
4.2 REVISED PROJECT COST

4.2.1 Major Items for Cost Estimate

(1) Work Items

The revised project costs under this study on the toll road are estimated basically based
on reviewing F/S cost estimation. In order to support the construction of the toll road
project under the formulated different options of PPP schemes, the project cost is
aggregated by new groups of works coinciding options of PPP schemes and on intervals
or segments between interchanges. The work groups are roughly divided into structure
works such as interchanges and bridges or other works related to the road sections such
as sub-base, base, pavement and the rest of works for the main road.

1) Bridge
The bridge is further divided into two types; the bridge of the main toll road, mainly
over river as shown in Figure 4.2-1, and flyover for crossing roads, as shown in Figure
4.2-2. Bridges are counted separately for main road and flyover for each segment. The
cost is estimated in such an aggregated in term of bridge area in square-meters for every
segment, and multiplied by the average unit cost of Rp 7.5 million/m2, which is the
average value derived from currently constructed bridges works in the project regions in
Java Island. The following Section 4.2.2 provides detailed information on the bridge
issue regarding the preliminary design and cost estimate.

Figure 4.2-1 Typical Bridge over River

Figure 4.2-2 Typical Bridge over Toll Road

4-6
2) Pavement
The pavement includes all components of works above sub-grade, such as pavement of
27 m thickness concrete, 10cm lean concrete and aggregate base at shoulder. Standard
Cross Section is shown in Figure 4.2-3.

Figure 4.2-3 Standard Cross Section

3) Interchange
The interchange includes over bridges, tollbooths and toll facility. A typical interchange
is shown in Figure 4.2-4.

Toll Road

Toll Plaza

Figure 4.2-4 Typical Interchange

4) Works for main road

For the main road construction works, the rest of items in the cost estimation in Table
4.1-1, such as General, Earth Works and Lighting are aggregated. The construction costs
are also segregated by segment. The estimated land acquisition cost in the F/S is
calculated as average for NJOP and the market price.

4-7
 5) Total Cost
The revised cost estimation results are summarized as shown in Table 4.2-4. The
estimated total cost is Rp 5,777,985 million, which is 12.4% higher than the cost of Rp
5,141,811 million that was obtained in the F/S. The reason may be attributed to
duplication items in estimating construction cost. The bridge unit cost of Rp 7.5 million
/m2 includes all works pertaining bridge construction, such as mobilization and traffic
control during construction period, there must be some duplication in those items which
are included in the works for main road. These items can not be separated for main
works and bridge construction.

The results are adopted as construction cost for our further study with a difference of
12.4% in the total construction cost.

4.2.2 Review of Bridge Construction Cost

In the review of bridge construction costs, as presented in Figure 4.2-5, a unit cost of Rp
7.5 million per square meter was taken based on the construction cost experiences of the
same type bridges in Indonesia as bridges of this study from the following reasons.

• It is very difficult for the review to identify the construction costs for bridges, since
there are no descriptions on the construction costs one by one in the report.
• There are a few borehole drilling data comparing to the number of the bridges, as
shown in Table 4.2-5. Construction cost estimate without enough soil investigation
data tends to be under estimation for the bridge foundation costs.
• According to the bridge list in Appendix 4-1, many of piers do not have pile
foundations. Piers without piles especially in river areas tend to be easily damaged
due to scouring during flood even in relatively good ground conditions.
• With the depths of bearing strata indicated in Table 4.2-5, bridge substructures usually
require pile foundations.
• Bridge construction costs per square meter for bridges with PCI-Girder in Figure
4.2-5 are scattered around Rp 7.5 million /m2 level, costs of which shall be taken from
the conservative side view point because of the above situations.

Details of the bridges along the toll road, with a total of 67 bridges as components of the
toll road and another required 302 bridges for road crossings over the toll road, are
presented in Appendix 4-1 of the Bridge List.

4-8
 Table 4.2-1 Summary of Revised Project Cost (Rp million)

Jogjakarta - Solo Solo - Seragen

Segment 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Starting - Jogyakarta IC - Pranmanan IC - Klaten IC - Delanggu IC - Kartosuro IC - Kertosuro Jct - Solo IC - Krang Krang Ayar IC -
Segment
Jogyakarta IC Pranmanan IC Klaten IC Delanggu IC Kartosuro IC Kertosuro Jct Solo IC Ayar IC Seragen IC

Length (km) 8.42 12.20 11.65 7.52 13.45 10.45 13.76

Length (km) 3.41 5.01 12.20 11.65 7.52 2.11 11.34 10.45 13.76
Main road 1,166 43,912 70,093 74,425 40,770 29,947 135,963 110,858 147,435
Pavement 1,838 68,576 104,688 106,175 81,890 30,827 82,445 83,174 112,772
Bridge 29,130 94,290 187,815 153,105 79,410 34,020 96,938 149,250 109,170
Over bridge 13,508 50,918 121,755 97,335 53,775 7,193 64,170 35,768 74,828
On river 15,623 43,373 66,060 55,770 25,635 26,828 32,768 113,483 34,343
Interchange 7,039 15,572 17,986 17,986 17,986 3,387 0 15,086 15,086

4-9
Total (000,000Rp) 39,176 222,354 380,594 351,702 220,064 98,183 315,357 358,378 384,476
Land Acquisition 43,264 63,563 154,785 147,807 95,408 26,770 132,364 121,976 160,611
Grand Total 82,439 285,918 535,379 499,509 315,472 124,953 447,721 480,353 545,088

Seragen - Ngawi Ngawi - Kertosono

Code 8 9 10 11 12
Total
Seragen IC - Mantingan - Ngawi IC - Madiun IC - Caruban IC - Nganjuk IC -
Segment
Mantingan Ngawi IC Madigan IC Caruban IC Nganjuk IC Kertosono

Length (km) 50.75 23.49 8.54 35.61 23.19 219.03

Length (km) 20.90 29.85 23.49 8.54 35.61 23.19 219.03
Main road 203,085 271,199 235,306 81,494 427,099 222,925 2,095,677
Pavement 157,922 211,273 163,872 65,927 171,942 113,631 1,556,951
Bridge 202,065 187,635 208,800 36,630 214,253 151,695 1,934,205
Over bridge 99,683 144,203 126,698 25,808 160,305 78,128 1,154,070
On river 102,383 43,433 82,103 10,823 53,948 73,568 780,135
Interchange 15,086 0 20,683 15,086 15,086 15,086 191,152
Total (000,000Rp) 578,179 670,137 628,685 199,145 828,414 503,360 5,777,985
Land Acquisition 243,952 277,813 211,322 76,315 318,216 207,140 2,281,304
Grand Total 822,130 947,950 973,791 275,460 1,146,630 710,499 8,059,289

4-9
Table 4.2-2 Number of Bridges and Boring Investigation Data
Yogya Solo - Mantingan Mantingan
(Seragen) Ngawi – Kertosono
Solo ( Solo – Seragen) - Ngawi
Distance 53.24km 24.21 km 50.75 km 90.83 km
Bridges
on the 39 11 7 10
Toll Road
Bridges
over the
85 74 46 97
Toll
Road
Boring
B1 B2 B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B1 B2 B3 B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 B8 B9
No.
Boring
30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
Depth
m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m

Bearing
13 1.0 6 2 9 16 2 6 2 8 11 8 16 16 20 22 28 12 16
Layer
m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m
Depth

30 : Construction cost experiences of PC

I Girder Bridges in Indonesia.
Steel Long Brg. : Average cost for each bridge type
Construction Cost Million Rp/m2

Steel Box Brg.

20 PC Composit Brg.
Steel Truss Brg. Gebang Brg. Tanggulangin Brg.
PC Bridge
10
PC I-Girder Brg.

Nagreg Brg.

Balaraja Brg. Peterongan Brg.

Figure 4.2-5 Rough Standard of Bridge Construction Cost by Bridge Type in Indonesia

4 - 10
4.3 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

4.3.1 Review of F/S Economic Analysis

The Feasibility Study estimated the economic parameters of Benefit/Cost ratio (B/C),
Economic Internal Rate of Return % (EIRR) and Net Present Value (NPV) based on the
costs estimated as presented in Section 4.1 of this Chapter and the benefits expected to
be gained by the implementation of the toll road project, as presented in the following
sections.

(1) Cost

1) Construction Cost
Construction cost summarized in the previous section and land acquisition cast were
included in the toll road construction cost.
2) Engineering cost for design and construction supervision is not included
3) Operation and Maintenance Cost
Operation and maintenance cost covering the operation and the runtime and the periodic
maintenance works.
- The runtime maintenance cost was used for clearing the area, cutting plantation,
and overlay and for the similar types works. The cost amount was estimated 5%
from the construction cost.
- Operation and periodic maintenance cost such as structure rehabilitation works
(overlay), and the similar types, and its implementation once in ten (10) years,
10% of construction cost.
- Road upgrading cost was a cost for toll roads widening works to final stage.

(2) Benefit

1) Reduction of Vehicle Operation Cost

Economic benefit, which can be derived by toll roads construction, is increasing
efficiency of vehicle operation cost. VOC on the arterial roads for different vehicle
categories are follows:
- Passenger car (Group I): Rp 1,294/km with a speed of 30 km/hour
- Class IIA vehicle: Rp 5,678/km with a speed of 25 km/hour
- Class IIB vehicle: Rp 4,189/km with a speed of 25 km/hour

Whiles the VOC on the toll roads are as follows:

- Passenger car (Group I) : Rp 1,000/km with a speed of 80 km/hour
- Class IIA vehicle: Rp 5,348/km with a speed of 65 km/hour

4 - 11
 - Class IIB vehicle: Rp 3,675/km with a speed of 60 km/hour

2) Travel Time Cost Saving

By using toll road, travel time can be saved. The saved travel times were converted to
monetary value using time evaluation. This is Travel Time Cost (TTC) saving merit.
The time evaluation is estimated as follows:

- Passenger car (Group I): time value is Rp 21,002/hour

- Class IIA vehicle: time value is Rp 98,097/hour
- Class IIB vehicle: time value is Rp 19,604/hour

The adopted time values are those of “Heavy Loaded Road Improvement Project Master
Plan Review Study” by Bina Marga in 2001, for Bus and Passenger Car and JARNS
(Java Arterial Road Network Study) in 2001 for trucks. The values are adjusted to 2005
price based on the latest five (5) years average inflation rate, 8% per annum.

3) The assumption
The assumption used for the evaluation is as follows:
- Basic Year Operation: 2009
- Observation time period: 35 years
- Price level: 2005
- Alternatives of Discount Rate : 12.75%, 15%, and 20%

(3) Result of Economic Analysis

The three economic parameters of B/C Ratio, NPV and EIRR are summarized in Table
4.3-1.

discount Solo - Mantingan- Ngawi -

Yogya - Solo
rate Mantingan Ngawi Kertosono
B/C Ratio
12.75% 2.04 2.45 2.21 2.60
15.00% 1.87 2.03 1.83 2.15
20.00% 1.53 1.43 1.29 1.52
NVP
12.75% 3,822,547 3,638,136 1,452,214 4,767,380
15.00% 2,712,618 1,200,091 931,964 3,210,856
20.00% 1,279,644 896,761 293,031 1,289,254
IRR 32.98% 26.74% 24.69% 27.62%
Table 4.3-1 Economic Parameters of Economic Analysis

4 - 12
(4) Examination of the Analysis

The above analysis is examined by checking O&M cost, VOC benefit and TTC benefit
for the years of 2010, 2025 and 2040. The result is shown in Table 4.3-2.

Table 4.3-2 Main Items Applied in Economic Analysis

Item Yogya - Solo Solo - Mantingan Mantingan- Ngawi Ngawi - Kertosono

Traffic Volume (million)

2010 402 v-km 339 v-km 144 v-km 355 v-km
2025 1,213 v-km 1,019 v-km 435 v-km 1,071 v-km
2040 2,778 v-km 2,335 v-km 995 v-km 2,090 v-km
O&M (Rp million) /v-km /v-km /v-km /v-km
2010 97,498 243 73,640 217 37,706 262 93,137 262
2025 415,582 343 103,618 102 53,056 122 131,053 122
2040 1,318,296 475 138,858 59 71,100 71 175,624 84
Benefit VOC (Rp million) /v-km /v-km /v-km /v-km
2010 381,196 948 231,696 683 118,327 822 350,599 988
2025 1,126,069 928 694,468 682 356,448 819 1,055,374 985
2040 2,198,864 792 1,590,474 681 816,348 820 2,417,009 1,156
Benefit TTC Rp million) /v-km /v-km /v-km /v-km
2010 230,735 574 261,889 773 94,173 654 270,155 761
2025 685,935 565 779,520 765 279,896 643 803,729 750
2040 1,339,408 482 1,785,315 765 641,040 644 1,840,723 881

These three components are considered to be interrelated to traffic volume in terms of

vehicle-kilometer. For O&M cost the coefficients are decreasing for future years, except
Yogya – Solo section.Therefore, for this section O&M cost is inflated using 8% per annum.

Including the section the average cost for O&M is Rp 196.8 /v-km. This is considered
as a unit cost for O&M, proportional to traffic volume (v-km).

VOC benefit figures are not so fluctuated, as they must be related closely to traffic
volume (v-km), but it varies by section. Solo – Mantingan section is the lowest with 682
and Ngawi – Kertosono section is highest of 988.

As for TTC benefit, the figures are also not fluctuated. But, the tendency is rather
different. The lowest figure is that of Yogya – Solo section and it suddenly reduced to
482. The highest is for Solo – Mantingan section followed by Ngawi – Kertosono
section. For the latter section it raised up to 881 in 2040.

The examination shows those figures are favorable for Ngawi – Kertosono section and
adverse for Yogya – Solo section. If the figures were same as the other sections the
economic indices will become higher for this section.

4 - 13
 In addition, the engineering cost for the detailed design of the project and construction
supervision is not considered in the economic analysis, which can be estimated as about
4% for detailed design and 4% for construction supervision.

4.3.2 Revised Economic Analysis

(1) Case set up

Three cases are set up for economic analysis in order to compare economic viability of
the section of toll road under operation. It is assumed that The Trans Java Toll Road
outside of the Study Area will be operated by traffic by the year when the study Toll
Road will be open. The sections of Semarang – Solo and Kertosono – Surabaya will be
connected to the Study Toll Road to complete the Trans Java Toll Road. A section of toll
road in the Study area between Yogya and Solo is branched outside of Trans Java Toll
Road. Therefore, in addition to the case of constructed the whole of the Study Road
between Yogyakarta and Kertosono, the two sections of the Study Road Yogyakarta –
Solo and Solo – Kertosono sections are considered independently, as presented in Table
4.3-3.

Table 4.3-3 Case Set Up

Case Yogyakarta – Solo Solo – Kertosono
1 Open Open
2 Open -
3 - Open

(2) Cost

1) Construction cost
The construction cost summarized in Table 4.2-4 is used, but land acquisition cost is not
included.
2) Operation and maintenance cost
Routine maintenance works such as cleaning of roadway; bush cutting and toll road
operation cost are considered to be proportional to traffic volume (vehicle-km). A
coefficient of 196.8 derived from F/S is used. For major maintenance and repair works,
5% of construction cost for every 5 year is included.
3) Engineering Cost
The engineering cost for the detailed design of the project and construction supervision
is considered as about 4% for detailed design and 4% for construction supervision.

4 - 14
 (3) Benefit

Traffic flow diverted to toll expressway can enjoy benefit by improved traffic flow. The
remaining traffic on ordinary roads can also enjoy merit by improved traffic flow due to
reduction of traffic volume attained by diversion to toll expressway. To simulate such a
situation traffic assignment procedure is employed. Traffic volume along the study road
is obtained by traffic assignment procedure using OD tables, road network. Changes of
traffic condition through out study area is compared by “with and without” the project
road basis. Quantitative amount of vehicle-km (v-km) and vehicle-hour (v-hr) are
accumulated during assignment process.

1) VOC reduction
To obtain VOC reduction merit, unit VOC cost as used in F/S is applied to average
speed calculated v-km divided by v-hr for toll road and non toll road for 3 vehicle
categories, with and without cases.

2) TTC savings
Total accumulated amount of veh-hr for without case subtracted by with each case is a
total save travel time within study area. This amount of saved time multiplied by time
evaluation of each vehicle categories is monetary conversion of saved time. This is a
procedure to get the savings in TTC.

4.3.3 Revised Economic Parameters

(1) Presumptions for Economic Analysis

The applied values of veh-km and veh-hr as well traffic parameters for each of the three
cases are estimated through the traffic assignments applying JICA STRADA programs.
The following presumptions are applied for the economic analysis:

- Implementation Schedule
Year 2007: Land acquisition and detailed engineering design
Year 2008: Construction of 40% of the project
Year 2009: Construction of 60% of the project
Year 2010: Operation

- Evaluation Period
This period is considered as 30 years of operation from the year 2010 to 2039.

4 - 15
- Widening Cost
Additional widening cost is added to increase the number of lanes from 2 lanes in
each direction to 3 lanes when the traffic volumes reach the level of 64,100 veh/day.
Widening costs are:
Yogyakarta – Solo: Rp 352,528 million in year 2027
Solo – Kertsono: Rp 1,272,416 million in year 2031

(2) Results of Economic Analysis

Tables 4.3-4, 4.3-5 and 4.3-6 present the estimated economic parameters for the cases
of:

Case 1: Yogyakarta - Kertosono

Case 2: Yogyakarta – Solo
Case 3: Solo - Kertosono

Table 4.3-4 Economic Parameters (Yogyakarta – Kertosono)

Discount Rate 12.75% 15.00% 20.00%
B/C 2.161 1.887 1.437
NPV (Rp million) 10,491,465 7,1562,916 2,907,368
EIRR % 28.18 28.18 28.18

Table 4.3-5 Economic Parameters (Yogyakarta – Solo)

Discount Rate 12.75% 15.00% 20.00%
B/C 2.038 1.779 1.353
NPV (Rp million) 2,122,829 1,418,426 531,195
EIRR % 26.73 26.73 26.73

Table 4.3-6 Economic Parameters (Solo - Kertosono)

Discount Rate 12.75% 15.00% 20.00%
B/C 1.904 1.655 1.246
NPV (Rp million) 6,047,488 3,917,406 1,223,617
EIRR % 24.51 24.51 24.51

The results show that Case 1 of implementing the whole Study Road from Yogyakarta
to Kertosono gives the highest economic parameters compared with implementing only
a section of the road.

4 - 16
(3) Sensitivity Analysis

A sensitivity analysis is carried out on the three cases of project implementation to take
into account the uncertainty of assumptions and to determine the potential of each
project road for unexpected increase in construction costs or decrease in benefits.

The cases considered in this sensitivity analysis are those of unexpected increase or
decrease in the project costs or benefits by 10% and 20% under the three applied
discount rates of 12.75%, 15% and 20%.

Results of the sensitivity analysis are presented in Tables 4.3-7, 4.3-8 and 4.3-9 for the
different three cases of project implementation of:

1. Yogyakarta – Kertosono
2. Yogyakarta – Solo
3. Solo - Kertosono

The results show that the Project is economically feasible and give the indication that,
from the economic point of view, the whole road should be implemented from
Yogyakarta to Kertosono, which is the case that gives higher economic parameters.

4 - 17
 Table 4.3-7 Revised Sensitivity Analysis Result (Yogyakarta - Kertosono)

Map of Sensibility Analysis Results of Analysis

discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate
12.75% 15.00% 20.00% 12.75% 15.00% 20.00% 12.75% 15.00% 20.00%
cost -10% cost 0 cost +10% B/C 2.386 2.082 1.584 2.377 2.076 1.580 2.532 2.222 1.705
NPV 12,477,957 8,699,230 3,877,386 12,444,321 8,674,419 3,863,750 12,997,886 9,203,998 4,351,198
benefit +10% benefit +10% benefit +10% EIRR 30.75% 30.75% 30.75% 30.73% 30.73% 30.73% 33.24% 33.24% 33.24%
cost -10% cost 0 cost +10% B/C 2.302 2.020 1.550 2.161 1.887 1.437 2.272 1.995 1.532
NPV 11,045,030 7,682,495 3,394,817 10,491,465 7,152,916 2,907,368 10,931,532 7,586,647 3,321,319
benefit 0 benefit 0 benefit 0 EIRR 30.47% 30.47% 30.47% 28.18% 28.18% 28.18% 30.14% 30.14% 30.14%
cost -10% cost 0 cost +10% B/C 2.072 1.818 1.395 1.945 1.699 1.293 2.044 1.795 1.379
NPV 9,092,175 6,160,993 2,438,435 8,538,609 5,631,413 1,950,986 8,978,676 6,065,144 2,364,937
benefit -10% benefit -10% benefit -10% EIRR 27.64% 27.64% 27.64% 25.58% 25.58% 25.58% 27.33% 27.33% 27.33%

discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate

4 - 18
12.75% 15.00% 20.00% 12.75% 15.00% 20.00% 12.75% 15.00% 20.00%
cost -20% cost 0 cost +20% B/C 2.955 2.607 2.020 2.593 2.265 1.724 2.310 2.002 1.504
NPV 15,504,307 11,255,081 5,795,029 14,397,176 10,195,922 4,820,131 13,290,045 9,136,762 3,845,234
benefit +20% benefit +20% benefit +20% EIRR 39.28% 0.00% 0.00% 33.22% 33.22% 33.22% 29.00% 29.00% 29.00%
cost -20% cost 0 cost +20% B/C 2.463 2.173 1.683 2.161 1.887 1.437 1.925 1.668 1.253
NPV 11,598,596 8,212,075 3,882,265 10,491,465 7,152,916 2,907,368 9,384,334 6,093,757 1,932,470
benefit 0 benefit 0 benefit 0 EIRR 34.76% 0 0 28.18% 28.18% 28.18% 24.64% 24.64% 24.64%
cost -20% cost 0 cost +20% B/C 1.970 1.738 1.347 1.729 1.510 1.149 1.540 1.334 1.003
NPV 7,692,885 5,169,069 1,969,502 6,585,753 4,109,910 994,605 5,478,622 3,050,751 19,707
benefit -20% benefit -20% benefit -20% EIRR 26.95% 26.95% 26.95% 22.90% 22.90% 22.90% 20.05% 20.05% 20.05%

4 - 18
 Table 4.3-8 Revised Sensitivity Analysis Result (Yogyakarta - Solo)

Map of Sensibility Analysis Results of Analysis

discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate
12.75% 15.00% 20.00% 12.75% 15.00% 20.00% 12.75% 15.00% 20.00%
cost -10% cost 0 cost +10% B/C 2.388 2.094 1.607 2.241 1.956 1.489 2.388 2.094 1.607
NPV 2,665,141 1,862,514 845,197 2,539,691 1,742,453 734,612 2,665,141 1,862,514 845,197
benefit +10% benefit +10% benefit +10% EIRR 31.62% 31.62% 31.62% 29.19% 29.19% 29.19% 31.62% 31.62% 31.62%
cost -10% cost 0 cost +10% B/C 2.171 1.904 1.461 2.038 1.779 1.353 2.143 1.880 1.444
NPV 2,248,279 1,538,487 641,780 2,122,829 1,418,426 531,195 2,223,006 1,517,108 625,294
benefit 0 benefit 0 benefit 0 EIRR 28.92% 28.92% 28.92% 26.73% 26.73% 26.73% 28.61% 28.61% 28.61%
cost -10% cost 0 cost +10% B/C 1.954 1.714 1.315 1.834 1.601 1.218 1.928 1.692 1.299
NPV 1,831,417 1,214,461 438,363 1,705,967 1,094,399 327,778 1,806,144 1,193,081 421,877
benefit -10% benefit -10% benefit -10% EIRR 26.18% 26.18% 26.18% 24.21% 24.21% 24.21% 25.89% 25.89% 25.89%

discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate
12.75% 15.00% 20.00% 12.75% 15.00% 20.00% 12.75% 15.00% 20.00%
cost -20% cost 0 cost +20% B/C 2.787 2.458 1.904 2.445 2.134 1.624 2.178 1.886 1.416

4 - 19
NPV 3,207,454 2,306,602 1,159,199 2,956,553 2,066,480 938,029 2,705,651 1,826,357 716,859
benefit +20% benefit +20% benefit +20% EIRR 37.50% 37.50% 37.50% 31.62% 31.62% 31.62% 27.55% 27.55% 27.55%
cost -20% cost 0 cost +20% B/C 2.322 2.049 1.587 2.038 1.779 1.353 1.815 1.571 1.180
NPV 2,373,730 1,658,549 752,365 2,122,829 1,418,426 531,195 1,871,927 1,178,304 310,025
benefit 0 benefit 0 benefit 0 EIRR 33.04% 33.04% 33.04% 26.73% 26.73% 26.73% 23.34% 23.34% 23.34%
cost -20% cost 0 cost +20% B/C 1.858 1.639 1.270 1.630 1.423 1.083 1.452 1.257 0.944
NPV 1,540,006 1,010,495 345,531 1,289,105 770,373 124,361 1,038,203 530,250 -96,809
benefit -20% benefit -20% benefit -20% EIRR 25.49% 25.49% 25.49% 21.62% 21.62% 21.62% 18.92% 18.92% 18.92%

4 - 19
 Table 4.3-9 Revised Sensitivity Analysis Result (Solo - Kertosono)

Map of Sensibility Analysis Results of Analysis

discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate
12.75% 15.00% 20.00% 12.75% 15.00% 20.00% 12.75% 15.00% 20.00%
cost -10% cost 0 cost +10% B/C 2.238 1.954 1.483 2.095 1.820 1.371 2.238 1.954 1.483
NPV 7,747,977 5,316,208 2,219,601 7,320,962 4,907,538 1,843,187 7,747,977 5,316,208 2,219,601
benefit +10% benefit +10% benefit +10% EIRR 28.82% 28.82% 28.82% 26.69% 26.69% 26.69% 28.82% 28.82% 28.82%
cost -10% cost 0 cost +10% B/C 2.034 1.776 1.348 1.904 1.655 1.246 2.007 1.753 1.332
NPV 6,474,504 4,326,076 1,600,032 6,047,488 3,917,406 1,223,617 6,388,478 4,253,303 1,543,918
benefit 0 benefit 0 benefit 0 EIRR 26.46% 26.46% 26.46% 24.51% 24.51% 24.51% 26.17% 26.17% 26.17%
cost -10% cost 0 cost +10% B/C 1.831 1.598 1.213 1.714 1.489 1.121 1.806 1.578 1.199
NPV 5,201,030 3,335,944 980,462 4,774,015 2,927,274 604,048 5,115,004 3,263,171 924,349
benefit -10% benefit -10% benefit -10% EIRR 24.03% 24.03% 24.03% 22.27% 22.27% 22.27% 23.76% 23.76% 23.76%

4 - 20
discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate discount rate
12.75% 15.00% 20.00% 12.75% 15.00% 20.00% 12.75% 15.00% 20.00%
cost -20% cost 0 cost +20% B/C 2.620 2.300 1.762 2.285 1.986 1.495 2.026 1.747 1.299
NPV 9,448,466 6,715,011 3,215,586 8,594,436 5,897,670 2,462,756 7,740,405 5,080,329 1,709,927
benefit +20% benefit +20% benefit +20% EIRR 33.95% 33.95% 33.95% 28.82% 28.82% 28.82% 25.24% 25.24% 25.24%
cost -20% cost 0 cost +20% B/C 2.183 1.916 1.468 1.904 1.655 1.246 1.689 1.456 1.082
NPV 6,901,519 4,734,747 1,976,447 6,047,488 3,917,406 1,223,617 5,193,458 3,100,065 470,788
benefit 0 benefit 0 benefit 0 EIRR 30.02% 30.02% 30.02% 24.51% 24.51% 24.51% 21.49% 0 0
cost -20% cost 0 cost +20% B/C 1.747 1.533 1.175 1.523 1.324 0.997 1.351 1.165 0.866
NPV 4,354,572 2,754,483 737,308 3,500,541 1,937,142 -15,522 2,646,511 1,119,801 -768,351
benefit -20% benefit -20% benefit -20% EIRR 23.42% 23.42% 23.42% 19.94% 19.94% 19.94% 17.47% 17.47% 17.47%

4 - 20