Watershed: At the
Precipice or Over the
Falls - Facing Up to Our
Water Scarce Future
Jack Smith,
Director CACOR, Adjunct
ProfessorTelfer School of Management
Being Open to Surprise Involves
Outside-In More Than Inside-Out
The World.....
Scanning
I. world you know >>>>>
Monitoring Scenario Building
… II. world you don’t know
Weak Signals
…& III. world you don’t know… you don’t know.
Resilience & Foresight
• Resilience involves accepting that there
are unknown, unknowns – real surprises –
that require empathy, agility and
imaginative-analytical, anticipatory
strategies and tools: i.e. foresight;
• Institutions can add resilience when they
engage in collaborative learning , what if
simulations and scenarios, and challenge
the accepted wisdoms;
• Foresight involves creating circumstances
under which resilience can be increased
through exploration of diverse pathways,
and how organizations approach the
restoration of order following shocks.
Sources of Disruption
• Mind Set: Institutional Linearity-Rigidity in assumptions, structures and
preparedness strategies; ( Maginot Line, Blitzkreig; Vietnam;)
•New Models: e.g. new societal capacities - digital education, disaggregation of
services; social networks
•Technology Shift: Succession – Breakthrough, and Transformative
Technologies; (Hiroshima; Singularity- quantum- nano-self assembly; synthethic
biology, drones-robotics)
• Arrogance-Comfort: Self Delusive Narratives; ( 9-11; Global Finance 2008,
Iran nuclear )
• Power of Nature: “Gaia” planetary techtonics-Evolutionary – naturally
occurring - recurring earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes, typhoons, hurricanes etc.
• Doomsday “Unthinkables” - horrific; pervasive and complex; comprehensive
and costly beyond our capabilities for restoration; (asteroid hit; gulf stream shift,
rapid polar melt, nuclear winter, solar flare heat thrust, “ grey goo”)
Water Themes
• Water & energy seem to be the two key sustainability challenges facing us all;
water is a growing concern;
• The composition of our shared atmosphere has significantly changed from
that of our ancestors – water cycles are central to this;
• There are fossil energy substitutes – but not for water;
• However there may be technologies to improve water purification and
potability – e.g. Nanofiltration + we are only now learning conservation
• Canada ( and others), blessed by water presence, persist in the myth of super
abundance of good quality water – leads to water waste and reluctance to
value;
• Some key economic producers and important sectors are constrained by
water scarcity- e.g. Alberta oil sands, agriculture, mining
• Our major water sheds are showing strain; erosion; flash floods, Great lakes
levels, Prairies droughts, Glacial retreat, Arctic ponds, peat lands ( 12% of
surface cover ) and ice cover, and declining average flows of rivers in
populated zones: window for action is beginning to close
I. The Changing Climate and Canada’s
Water by Dr. James P. Bruce
• Our citizens continue to believe we are plentiful in high quality water, so
attitudes toward water preservation are difficult to adjust;
•International Geosphere-Biosphere Program has measured composite change
since 1980: measuring sea levels, global mean temperatures, Arctic sea ice and
CO2 concentrations in atmosphere ( key driver of other three) – all are rising;
•Until 1960s natural forces led the cycle but since then human interventions have
dominated – CO2 now rising from 340 ppm in 1980 to 387 ppm in 2009
• Canada is especially affected given climatic diversity, Arctic impacts, 3 seas;
•Water quality and quantity is showing affects in; increased frequency of heavy
rains creating toxic runoff- eutrophication and erosion; flash floods and drought
cycles in Prairies; lower average river flows;
• Rockies, Arctic glaciers and winter ice covers are showing clear declines of
20% and more since 1960s
• There are substitutes for fossil fuels but none for water
II. Carrying Capacity and Water
Limits by Dr Ted Manning
• Water is now the most common limit to sustainability – e.g. in resorts, farming,
energy production;
• Limits are easier to understand when they are most visible- e.g. Maldives,
Cozumel; China has plentiful water but clean water is lacking;
• Clean water has a visible price in time, effort or cost;
•Canada is only starting to meter and charge for water – about $ 100 per month for
an average family in Ottawa;
•Water availability now affecting investment decisions- e.g. cruise ships port
choices;
• When towns were small water was a convenient way of waste disposal- this has
changed for most communities;
• Where water costs are real and significant, changes in behaviour follow ;
• Tourism is a leading innovator- grey water for golf; rainwater capture and aquifer
protection, desalinization with solar systems, end use efficiency devices;
•May become a zero sum game and may take a crisis to prompt change
III.Final Ecological Threshold in High Arctic
Ponds by John Smol and Marianne Douglas
• Ponds are drying up faster than expected in the Arctic
ecosystem;
• Climate change is the most likely reason;
• Data is observational over a 24 year period
•A Key Ecological tipping point has now been passed-
Arctic ponds that were permanent for millenia are now
ephemeral;
• The consequences are likely more severe than just is the
water cycle as these ponds provided food, breeding beds
etc. – now need more complex modeling to understand
IV. A Modern Dynamic Water
Treaty by Dr. David Brooks
• Water treaties are important allocators for life support;
•Quantitative sharing is deficient: securitization and rigidity;
• Fixed allocations today may be impossible to sustain over time;
• Unlike land water is mobile and many times usage is possible;
• Most treaties focus on equitable and reasonable use – no longer adequate ;
•Dr. Brooks advocates 5 additional principles : 1) define rights; 2) equality in
rights and responsibilities; 3) priority to demand management ; 4) acceptance of
historic local forms of management; 5) continuous quality monitoring and
mediation of conflicts
• New institutional structures may be required- bilateral commision
5. Sustainable Development
and Water Policy
By Ralph Pentland
• In 20th century energy consumption rose by 12.5 and water by 9 fold;
• The world cannot sustain water usage at developed country rates
without major technology changes to enable reuse;
• New approaches can offer synergies – e.g. - saving water saves
energy;
• If ecological carrying capacity is exceeded, economic activity will
experience a jolt- downward;
• We are heading toward a precipice- because hundreds of millions
depend upon food grown with water from diminishing ground water;
• Regulatory trends are not helping us- away from precaution, under
valued economies of water value and assumptions of endless supply
• E.G.> US-Can border issues loop holes on prospects for future water
transfer ( subsequent news item re Canadian Water Issues Council
treaty concerns
6. A Watershed Moment for Democracy
By Matt Retallack
• Water stress is already present in Canada;
• Canada has five (macro, geo-political, cross regional) watersheds each
with different dynamics, stakeholders : 1) Atlantic – includes Great
Lakes; 2) Hudson Bay- Continental divide to Quebec; 3) Arctic Ocean
;4) Pacific – from Rockies and divide west; 5) Gulf of Mexico – small
arc of southern Prairies
• All are shared with US which constrains Canadian scope for action
( CWI Council) ;
• Stress is apparent in Great Lakes, Prairies and Hudson Bay domains
of the five watersheds
• Serious investment has yet to start on systemic conservation, e.g.
Widespread metering and charging value;
• Multi-jurisdictional complexity is holding back sensible policies,
innovation;
Strategic Policy
Implications
It is time for more aggressive public , community and institutional
engagement on water strategies
Canada can be an exemplary model for future practices – as long
as the real costs of water can be integrated into municipal economies;
Smart regulatory measures aligned with conservation strategies
and sensible US-Canada interests will be critical;
Technology innovations in water metering, management, minimal
usage and filtration must be supported in new targeted R&D;
Water treaties are an essential part of future democratic governance
and should be better funded to reflect this critical role
