Tsunami Modelling and Implications for Disaster Mitigation in Palu City

Abstract

The City of Palu, Central Sulawesi is one of the regions in Indonesia which
are vulnerable to tsunami and require a preventive action plan and mitigation to
reduce potential risks. This study analyzed tsunami inundation zones and their
implications regarding disaster mitigation in the city. This study employed
quantitative approach using Geographical Information System (GIS) to map
tsunami disaster prone areas. Cost Distance was used to model tsunami disaster;
spatial analyst and network analyst were used to analyze the level of danger,
vulnerability, and risk of tsunami, and also the establishment of evacuation routes.
Analysis indicated the followings: (1) The City of Palu has large potential for
tsunami inundation, (2) tsunami danger area comprises 9,63% of total city area, (3)
tsunami vulnerable area 9,83% of total city area, (4) tsunami risk area 3,83% of total
city area, and (5) there are 50 shelters acting as evacuation points and 108
evacuation routes in around the city. The built up area around the coast of Palu Bay
area was identified as having high risk of tsunami disaster. Evacuation routes are
scattered in the built up areas with the number of routes corresponding to population
density.
 Introduction

Indonesia was ranked second as the country most frequently hit by the
tsunami with 71 events or almost 9% of the total tsunami in the world. The reason
why Indonesia was ranked second because of the geographical location of Indonesia
which is at the confluence of the three main plates forming the earth's crust, namely
the Eurasian Plate which moves to the southeast and the Indo-Australian Plate
which moves extensively in the Indian Ocean from the north (Aceh) to around the
Sea Timor in the east and the Pacific Plate that moves around the Pacific Ocean to
the north of Papua.

Based on historical experience, tsunami events are very dangerous for the
community of society in coastal areas, even though the area is far from areas prone
to underwater (tectonic or volcanic) earthquakes. Impact that can be caused large
tsunami disaster, which can be in the form of death, loss of property, destruction of
facilities and infrastructure, especially in coastal areas, causing economic and
business disruptions, and can even improve the psychological (traumatic) condition
of the community.

Actions that can be taken include making disaster mitigation documents,

building evacuation sites that can be used either naturally in the form of hills, or
artificial in the form of special buildings for community shelter during a disaster.
Moreover, the making of evacuation signs and evacuation routes and counseling to
the community so that the community becomes trained and does not panic when the
tsunami disaster actually occurs.

One of the many regions in the eastern part of Indonesia which has a large
potential of tsunami is Palu City and its surroundings. There have been four times
recorded around Palu Bay, namely in 1927, 1968 and 1996, and 2018 while around
Palu City (Central Sulawesi) there were 7 events. The area of Palu City and its
surroundings have several pieces of faults which have the potential to generate
strong enough earthquakes. The fault is the Palu-Koro Fault that extends from Palu
to the South and Southeast through the North South Sulawesi to the south of Bone
to the Banda Sea.

Specifically for tsunami events in Palu City and its surroundings, there has
not been a tsunami disaster hazard model study in the form of a tsunami immersion
range which is important in mitigation activities. Because before carrying out
mitigation activities, a scientific approach to the potential of tsunami hazards that
can occur around the city of Palu is needed. For this reason, it takes a study in the
form of tsunami modeling and its implications for disaster mitigation in Palu City
which is expected to be an input in disaster mitigation activities in the City of Palu.

The main objective of this study was to determine the tsunami inundation
zone and its implications for disaster mitigation activities in Palu City with several
targets, namely modeling tsunami inundation zones around Palu City with a
scenario of variations in run-up height on the coastline, knowing tsunami disaster
risk areas in the city of Palu, find an evacuation location in the event of a tsunami in
Palu City, and determine the tsunami evacuation route in the city of Palu.
 Theoretical Background

This study uses a quantitative approach with the analytical methods used
including descriptive analysis methods and evaluative analysis. In tsunami
modeling, a flooding / inundation approach is used with the help of spatial analyst
tools available in GIS software.
The parameter used is the tsunami wave height on the line beach, slope area, and
surface roughness coefficient. The equation used in tsunami inundation modeling in
this study can be seen in the following equation: (Berryman, 2006 in Putra, 2008).

..........Equation ( 1 )

Explanation:

HLoss = Tsunami height loss per 1 m inundation / inundation distance

n = The coefficient of surface roughness. sfsfsfsfsfsfsfsfsfsfsssfsfsf
Ho = The height of a tsunami wave on the coastline. Dsfsifssfi
S = The amount of surface slope The forms of tsunami disaster
mitigation are discussed.

The form of tsunami disaster mitigation discussed in this study is non-

physical action in the form of disaster assessment, including analysis of tsunami
hazard areas, vulnerable areas tsunami, tsunami disaster risk area, and determination
of evacuation location based on building code provisions and evacuation route
determination. The analysis technique used for the mitigation study is an overlay
technique with the help of spatial analyst and network analyst tools.
 Content and Discussion

1. History of Tsunami and The Characteristics of Palu City.

a. History of Earthqueke and Tsunami in Palu City
The Palu area is one of the active seismic areas in Indonesia because of
the fault fault segmentation has the potential to generate strong earthquakes,
namely the Palu-Koro Fault that extends from Palu to the South and
Southeast. Judging from the depth of the earth quake, earthquake activity in
this zone appears to be dominated by shallow depth earthquakes between 0
to 60 kilometers. Thus, the activity is at risk of causing a tsunami.
The complexity of the earthquake and tsunami in the city of Palu and its
surroundings is proven by several historical records earthquakes and
tsunamis that took place since 1927, such as the Palu earthquake and
tsunami of 1927, the Tambu 1968 earthquake and tsunami, and the Toli-Toli
and Palu 1996 earthquakes (Daryono, 2011).

b. Administrative Limits and Geographical Location of Palu City.

Palu City is geographically located in the middle of Donggala Regency.
Right along the shoreline of Palu Bay or extending from east to west, it is
located to the north of the linethe equator at coordinates 0.35 ° –1.20 ° North
Latitude and 120 ° –122.09 ° East Longitude. The area of Palu City is 369.46
km2 or 36,946 ha and consists of 8 Districts.
2. Analysis
a. Model the tsunami inundation zone around Palu City
Modeling of tsunami inundation zones is carried out using five run-up
altitude scenarios on the coastline, namely 1m, 2m, 5m, 10m, and 15m.
From the modeling It was shown that in the 1 meter run-up height scenario,
the tsunami bath flooded the Palu City area of 328.2 Ha where the majority
of the flooded area was still in the form of vacant land and few settlements.
The largest pool is in the North Palu District with an area of 112.06 ha or
34.14% of the total area inundated by tsunami with a height of 1 meter. The
smallest inundation area is in the East Palu District, which is only covering
an area of 14.60 ha or 4.45% of the total area of a 1 meter tsunami
inundation area.
In the tsunami modeling with a run-up height of 2 meters, the tsunami
inundation spread to the residents' ponds. The total area inundated in this
scenario is 706.25 Ha or an increase of 53.52% from the area of tsunami
inundation in the 1 meter run-up scenario. Districts with the largest
inundation area are North Palu District with an area of 202.5 ha or 30.09%.
While the smallest inundation area is East Palu District with an area of 33.85
ha with a percentage of 4.79%.
In the tsunami modeling with a run-up height of 5 meters, the
inundation of the tsunami increasingly spread to the mainland. Based on the
results of the modeling, the results show that a tsunami with a height of 5
meters has entered the residential area towards the center of Palu City. The
area with the smallest inundation area is East Palu District with an area of
117.29 ha, while the area with the largest inundation is North Palu District
with an area of 428.47 ha (28.12% of the total area of the inundation area at
the 5 meter run-up height).
At an altitude of 10 meters, a pool of tsunamis has spread to Palu River,
settlements around the river, some settlements and vacant land along the
coast the western side of the east, and other settlements that lead towards the
center of the city. The inundation area is even greater, namely 2380, 59 Ha,
where the largest inundation area is in North Palu District (619.39 Ha). In
fact, the South Palu Subdistrict and Tatanga Subdistrict which were not
flooded previously were predicted to be flooded with an area of 0.10 Ha and
7.92 Ha if there is a tsunami with a height of 10 meters.
Tsunami modeling with a 15-meter run-up height is considered a very
high hazard level. The results of the modeling at a height of 15 meters
indicate that the inundation of the tsunami is increasingly widespread and
spread towards the center of the city of Palu. The area of tsunami inundation
reaches 3458.56 ha or extends 31.16% of the tsunami inundation area at an
altitude of 10 meters. The largest inundation area is in North Palu District
and the smallest inundation area is in South Palu Subdistrict with an area of
842.84 Ha and 34.94 Ha respectively.

b. Safe Zone of Tsunami

In general, the tsunami hazard area of the City of Palu is 3558.56 ha or ±
9.63% of the total area of Palu City (the area of Palu City is 36,946 ha). All
sub-districts in Palu City have the potential to be affected by tsunamis, both
from low hazard levels to very high hazard levels, except South Palu District
and Tatanga District which do not have very high tsunami hazards.
Districts that have the largest area of tsunami hazard are North Palu
District, which is 842.84 Ha. The area of North Palu Subdistrict is 3171 Ha,
so that the total sub-district predicted to be flooded is 26.58% of the total
area. The district with the smallest tsunami hazard area is the South Palu
District

c. Tsunami Vulnerability Zone

The parameters used in determining the vulnerability level of Palu City
to tsunamis are building density, population of women, toddlers, and seniors,
and population density. From these parameters, 4 classifications of tsunami
vulnerability levels were obtained in Palu City, namely low, medium, high,
and very high vulnerability.
In general, the area of Palu City is included in the classification of high
vulnerability to tsunamis. Areas that have high vulnerability in Palu City are
1190.91 Ha or ± 32.78% of the total vulnerable areas in Palu City. Areas
with low vulnerability of 1103.20 Ha, medium vulnerability areas of
1076.50 Ha, and very high vulnerability areas of 262.61 Ha. If specified in
the sub-district category, the largest sub-district with the highest
vulnerability is District. North Palu Subdistrict (288.57 Ha), the sub-district
with the largest medium vulnerability area is Mantikulore Subdistrict
(304.61 Ha), the sub-district with the largest area of high vulnerability is
Mantikulore District (359.87 Ha), and the largest sub-district with the
greatest vulnerability is the District of South Palu (179.54 Ha)

d. Zona resiko bencana tsunami

The risk of a tsunami disaster is the result of an interaction between a
potential hazard and the level of vulnerability. The area at risk of tsunami in
Palu City is is 1416l, 02 Ha. Of the total area, the majority are high risk
areas, namely an area of 710.55 ha. If specified per category, low risk areas
have an area of 90.91 ha with the largest area in North Palu Subdistrict
(31.34 Ha), medium risk areas covering 402.59 Ha with the widest area in
Ulujadi District (127.15 Ha), and very high risk areas covering an area of
211.97 ha with the largest area in the district of East Palu (126.46 ha).

e. Prone location and Evacuation location

Vulnerable locations are locations of built up areas that have been
flooded (including risk zones) or that are close to the location of flooding.
Based on conditions in the field, there are 108 prone locations which are
generated in determining the evacuation route. Then, based on the priority
criteria for the evacuation location above and observations at the field, 161
evacuation locations were obtained, where most of the buildings could be
used as shelters in the form of religious buildings and also government and
education buildings.

f. Evacuation route
The network used in making tsunami evacuation routes is the road
network. The value of each road segment is the travel time of each
segment by entering the time value of the average person walking which is
equal to 0.75 m / sec. Based on the results of the evacuation route
determination, there were 108 selected evacuation routes and from 161
buildings / shelters that could be used as evacuation sites, there were 50
 selected locations. The location is divided into two groups based on
location, namely in the tsunami risk area and the tsunami risk-safe area.

Conclusion
Tsunami modeling is a first step to assess the extent of the potential of the City of
Palu in the tsunami disaster. The results of this modeling can be made direct input
to delineate areas that are hazardous to tsunamis. The actions taken as
implications for the form of tsunami disaster mitigation in Palu City are passive or
non-physical mitigation in the form of disaster studies including analysis of
tsunami hazard areas, tsunami prone areas, tsunami disaster risk areas, and
determining evacuation location based on building code provisions and
evacuation route determination. Geographically, Palu City has a huge potential for
the immersion of tsunami waves. The area built in Palu City is mainly located in
the coastal area of Palu Bay which has a high level of tsunami disaster risk, while
the route used as an evacuation route is spread through the built area with the
number of routes proportional to the population density in the region. Buildings /
shelters selected as evacuation buildings based on criteria for evacuation buildings
are spread mostly in areas not at risk of tsunami. However, there are a number of
evacuation locations that are in areas at risk of being hit by the tsunami.
Prioritizing the integration of tsunami disaster mitigation actions in Palu City into
spatial documents such as Regional Regulation Documents (Perda) RT / RW Palu
City, RDTRK, location permit, and Building Construction Permit (IMB)
according to the characteristics of the potential tsunami disaster in Palu City. The
importance of spatial mitigation based on tsunami disaster has also been
supported and based on laws such as Law No. 25 years 2004 concerning the
National Development Planning System (SPPN), Law No. 24 of 2007 concerning
Disaster Management, Law No. 26 of 2007 concerning Spatial Planning, and Law
No. 27 of 2007 concerning Management of Coastal and Small Islands.
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