PHASE8: FINAL PROJECT
Present by:
Carlos Angarita
Angelica Rocio Gil
Judy Marcela Peñaloza
Diego Andres Perilla
Present to:
Ricardo Javier Pineda
Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia
2019
Contenido
INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................. 3
SOLVED .............................................................................................................. 4
CONCLUSION .................................................................................................. 20
BIBLIOGRAPHY................................................................................................ 21
INTRODUCTION
In the present work different problems are developed based on the methods of
Laplace, Wald, Savage and Hurwicz, Markov Chains, with the aim of making the most
appropriate decisions for the optimization of costs and increase of profits. As well as in
the development of the proposed exercises, the knowledge acquired on Decisions is
applied under the uncertainty environment.
SOLVED
Problem 1. Decisions under a risk environment:
Decisions under a risk environment: To develop the task, it is necessary to consult the
following reference: Sanderson, C. (2006). Analytical Models for Decision Making. New
York, USA: McGrawHill Education Editorial. Available in the knowledge environment of
the course. A company dedicated to manufacturing different turned parts must decide
whether to manufacture a new product at its main plant, or if it buys it from an outside
supplier. The profits depend on the demand of the product. Table 10 shows projected
profits, in millions of pesos.
Table 1. Decision process for the commercialization of tha
producto
Low High
Demand High -
Decision average - medium -
low - demand
alternative utility utility
utility utility
demand demand
Manufacture 124 146 165 182
Subcontract 121 142 167 180
Buy 122 148 169 188
Lease 116 150 161 180
Leasing 119 148 167 183
Probabilities 0.32 0.28 0.15 0.25
Table 1. Decision alternatives according to the states of nature
According to the corresponding information in Table 1 and the Predicted Value of Perfect
Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVMI) and
Decision Trees, respond:
a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the
demand.
b. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable
(F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:
P(F/low) = 0,2 P(D/low) = 0,8
P(F/low average) = 0,36 P(D/ low average) = 0,64
P(F/high medium) = 0,33 P(D/ high medium) = 0,67
P(F/high) = 0,4 P(D/high) = 0,6
c. What is the expected value of market research information?
d. What is the efficiency of the information?
Paso 1 Arbol de la desición
Probabilities demand
Nodo 2 low 0,32 124 39,68
low average 0,28 146 40,88
Manufacture High medium 0,15 165 24,75
High 0,25 182 45,5
150,81
Nodo 3 low 0,32 121 38,72
low average 0,28 142 39,76
Subcontract High medium 0,15 167 25,05
High 0,25 180 45
148,53
Nodo 1 Nodo 4 low 0,32 122 39,04
low average 0,28 148 41,44
Buy High medium 0,15 169 25,35
High 0,25 188 47
152,83
Nodo5 low 0,32 116 37,12
low average 0,28 150 42
Lease High medium 0,15 161 24,15
High 0,25 180 45
148,27
Nodo 6 low 0,32 119 38,08
low average 0,28 148 41,44
Leasing High medium 0,15 167 25,05
High 0,25 183 45,75
150,32
Por valor esperado se obtiene: VEsIP
152,83 La decisión recomendada es comprar esperando un pago de 152,83 Nodo 4
Valor esperado con información perfecta
154,03
VEIP=|VECIP-VESIP|
VEIP 1,2
P(F/low) = 0,2 P(D/low) = 0,8
P(F/low average) = 0,36 P(D/ low average) = 0,64
P(F/high medium) = 0,33 P(D/highmedium) = 0,67
P(F/high) = 0,4 P(D/high) = 0,6
Favorable
Probabilidades previas Probabilidades Probabilidade probabilidad
Estado de la naturaleza
p(sj) condicionales s conjuntas es
low 0,32 0,2 0,06 0,20
low average 0,28 0,36 0,10 0,32
High medium 0,15 0,33 0,05 0,16
High 0,25 0,4 0,10 0,32
0,31
Desfavorable
Probabilidades previas Probabilidades Probabilidade probabilidad
Estado de la naturaleza
p(sj) condicionales s conjuntas es
low 0,32 0,8 0,26 0,37
low average 0,28 0,64 0,18 0,26
High medium 0,15 0,67 0,10 0,15
High 0,25 0,6 0,15 0,22
0,69
low 0,20 124
Nodo 2 Manufacture low average 0,32 146 155,966592
Nodo 4 High medium 0,16 165
favorable High 0,32 182
low 0,20 121
Subcontract low average 0,32 142 153,751511
Nodo 5 High medium 0,16 167
High 0,32 180
low 0,20 122
Nodo 1 Buy low average 0,32 148 158,739739
Nodo 6 High medium 0,16 169
High 0,32 188
low 0,20 116
Lease low average 0,32 150 154,35412
Nodo 7 High medium 0,16 161
High 0,32 180
low 0,20 119
Nodo 3 Leasing low average 0,32 148 156,223035
Nodo 8 High medium 0,16 167
High 0,32 183
low 0,37 124
Desfavorable Manufacture low average 0,26 146 148,446405
Nodo 9 High medium 0,15 165
High 0,22 182
low 0,37 121
Subcontract low average 0,26 142 146,136649
Nodo 10 High medium 0,15 167
High 0,22 180
low 0,37 122
Buy low average 0,26 148 150,12119
Nodo 11 High medium 0,15 169
High 0,22 188
low 0,37 116
Lease low average 0,26 150 145,48126
Nodo 12 High medium 0,15 161
High 0,22 180
low 0,37 119
Leasing low average 0,26 148 147,614263
Nodo 13 High medium 0,15 167
High 0,22 183
Valor esperado con información muestral
158,7397391 0,31
150,12119 0,69
152,7929402
Valor de la información muestral
Valor esperado con información muestral 152,79
Valor esperado sin información muestral 152,83
0,04
Eficiencia
Valor esperado información muestral 0,04
Valor esperado información perfecta 1,2
Eficiencia 3,333333333
En un mercado favorable se recomienda comprar con una ganancia de 158,
74, mientras que en un mercado desfavorable también se recomienda
comprar pero la ganancia seria de 150,12
CHECK WITH WINQSB
Problem 2. Decision in uncertainty:
The company is thinking of acquiring machinery with new technology to carry out its
workshop work. The purchase will be decided according to several alternatives presented
by the seller (adaptability), this to facilitate the implementation in the workshop. The
decision variables presented below represent the cost of adaptation that will arise after
acquiring the machinery and training the workers in their use. Table 11 shows the costs
in millions of currency units per technology.
Event
Alternative Does not fit Fits acceptably Fits successfully Fis well
Technology 1 780 810 818 860
Technology 2 880 820 855 820
Technology 3 830 875 878 900
Technology 4 630 872 812 910
Table 2. Uncertainty adaptation new technology
Determine the optimal size of the premises to be purchased, using the methods of
LAPLACE, WALD, HURWICZ AND SAVAGE. Hurwicz Alpha 0,70.
CHECK WITH WINQSB
Problem 3. Decision in uncertainty:
PLAYER B
81 83 93 78 84
PLAYER A
81 78 85 85 85
81 92 80 87 83
91 83 85 93 83
87 89 88 79 88
Table 3. Game strategy data
Find the saddle point of the data given below in table 12 for players A and B.
CHECK WITH WINQSB
Problem 4. Decision in uncertainty:
In order to determine the decision conditions in the market, the Game Theory will be used,
using the graphical solution of the type (2 x N) and (2 x M) to estimate the strategy and
value of the game for the following data:
PLAYER 2
ESTRATEGY
A B
PLAYER 1
I 93 97
II 88 86
III 78 87
Table 4. Data for matrix strategy mxn
y1 y2
PLAYER 2
Estrategy A pesar de que ya nos dio el punto de silla y se trata de una estrategia pura.
A B Maximin
La guía de actividades solicita que se desarrolle empleando una solución
PLAYER 1
x1 I 93 97 93 grafica
x2 II 88 86 86
x3 III 78 87 78
Mínima 93 97
Por filas
= -9y1+87
si y1 =0 97 0 1 MINIMAX
I si y1= 1 93 97 93
86 88
si y1=0 86 87 78
II si y1=1 88
si y1=0 87
III si y1=1 78
En la estrategia 1 un jugador gana 93 y el otro pierde 93
CHECK WITH WINQSB
Problem 5. Markov decision problem:
An insurance company charges its customers according to their accident
history. If you have not had accidents the last two years are charged US $
6000 (State 1); If you have had an accident in each of the last two years you
will be charged $ 6300 (State 2). If you had accidents the first of the last two
years US $ 5800 (State 3). The probabilities of the state according to historical
data of three years are:
STATES E1 E2 E3
E1 0,25 0,35 0,40
E2 0,28 0,42 0,30
E3 0,20 0,15 0,65
Table 5. Transition matrix of Markov chains
Determine what the average payment that the company will receive according to the data
in the table.
State If you
S1 have
If younot had accidents the last two years are charged
have $6.000,00
S2 had an accident in each of the last two years you will be charged
If you $6.300,00
S3 had accidents the first of the last two years $5.800,00
∑ EC1 0,25W + 0,28X + 0,20Y W
W E1 E2 E3 = 0,0 EC2 0,35W + 0,42X + 0,15Y X
X 0,25 0,35 0,40 = 1,0 q= WXYZ EC3 0,40W + 0,30X + 0,65Y Y
p=
Y 0,28 0,42 0,30 = 1,0 EC5 w+x +y = 1
Z 0,20 0,15 0,65 = 1,0
E1 E2 E3
0,2308 0,2359 0,5333
W X Y INDEP IGUAL A
-0,75 0,35 0,20 0,00 0,000000
0,42 -0,58 0,15 0,00 0,000000
0,40 0,40 -0,35 0,00 0,000000
1,00 1,00 1,00 0,00 0,000000
probabilida estados *
dwxyz probabilidad
S1 $6.000,00 0,2308 $ 1.385
S2 $6.300,00 0,2359 $ 1.486
S3 $5.800,00 0,5333 $ 3.093
the
premium to
pay $ 5.964
CHECK WITH WINQSB
Problem 6. Markov decision problem:
Suppose you get 6 types of Jeans brands in the Colombian market: Brand 1, Brand 2,
Brand 3, Brand 4, Brand 5 and Brand 6. The following table shows the odds that you
continue to use the same brand or change it.
STATE BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5 BRAND 6
BRAND 1 0,16 0,13 0,17 0,15 0,21 0,18
BRAND 2 0,17 0,21 0,17 0,14 0,16 0,15
BRAND 3 0,2 0,21 0,19 0,15 0,13 0,12
BRAND 4 0,13 0,2 0,19 0,2 0,13 0,15
BRAND 5 0,18 0,14 0,13 0,17 0,17 0,21
BRAND 6 0,13 0,22 0,2 0,22 0,19 0,04
Table 6. Probabilities of change and permanence in the brand
At present, brand, have the following percentages in market share respectively (20%,
25%, 15%, 15%, 20% y 5%) during week 4.
STATE BRAND 1 BRAND 2 BRAND 3 BRAND 4 BRAND 5 BRAND 6
BRAND 1 0,16 0,13 0,17 0,15 0,21 0,18
BRAND 2 0,17 0,21 0,17 0,14 0,16 0,15
BRAND 3 0,2 0,21 0,19 0,15 0,13 0,12
BRAND 4 0,13 0,2 0,19 0,2 0,13 0,15
BRAND 5 0,18 0,14 0,13 0,17 0,17 0,21
BRAND 6 0,13 0,22 0,2 0,22 0,19 0,04
E.I 0,2 0,25 0,15 0,15 0,2 0,05
P1 0,1665 0,179 0,1695 0,1625 0,1645 0,158
P2 0,162245 0,18512 0,1748 0,170685 0,16475 0,1424
P3 0,16274565 0,18520505 0,1745917 0,16994605 0,1636672 0,14384435
P4 0,16269535 0,18526263 0,1746594 0,1699877 0,16375315 0,14364177
CHECK WITH WINQSB
CONCLUSIONES
The development of this activity gives the student tools to make decisions in the field of
labor based on the reduction of costs, maximization of profits, and the probability of
future sales that are so important for companies.
Markov Chains are a tool that allows us to analyze the behavior of certain types of
processes which evolve according to the time and state they are in, predicting future
movement.
Through the development of this activity we put into practice the knowledge acquired in
the study of the Theory of Decisions course which are applicable to daily life in both
personal and professional matters.7
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Ibe, O. (2013). Markov Processes for Stochastic Modeling: Massachusetts, USA:
University of Massachusetts Editorial. Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=516
132&lang=es&site=eds-live
Dynkin, E. (1982). Markov Processes and Related Problems of Analysis: Oxford, UK:
Mathematical Institute Editorial. Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2048/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/logi
n.aspx?direct=true&db=e000xww&AN=552478&lang=es&site=ehost-live
