come the basis on which pollsters pre-
dict elections, statisticians set insurance 46. Evelynne at the Well
rates, scientists conduct research, and The first guest to arrive is Evelynne, apprenticed to
handicappers calculate the odds of win- the Lady of the Lake. What is the probability that Mer-
ning horse races and lotteries. lin's and Evelynne's tosses both come up heads?
Five will get you ten that you'll be
using the formula long after you finish
these puzzles! 47. And Percival Makes
Three
Percival, aide to the Wizard of the Woods, tosses the
45. The Well of Wisdom next coin. What is the probability that all three coins
will come up heads?
Once a year apprentice wizards, witches, sorcerers,
and sorceresses come from many different kingdoms to
a conference at which they learn about new potions and
omens. 48. Four Coins in the Well
This year they meet in the kingdom Merlin serves as
Chief Wizard. Of the thirty apprentices he invites, only Vivienne, student of the Woodland Sorcerer, tosses
two are unable to attend, having been wounded fight- fourth. What are the odds for heads coming up in all
ing off a sudden influx of dragons. four tosses?
As the apprentices come in, Merlin gives them each a
gold coin to toss into the Well of Wisdom. If the toss of
the coin matches the previous toss—whether it was
heads or tails—the apprentice who pitches it will ac-
49. Oberon's Toss
quire a new power.
Wizard Merlin will toss the first gold coin. What Suppose Vivienne's coin comes up tails. What are the
chance is there that it will come up heads? chances that Oberon's coin, tossed right after Viv-
ienne's, comes up tails?
Clue on page 91. Clues on pages 91-92.
Answer on pages 122-123. Answers on pages 123-125.