PART 4

OUTLOOK
ALIGNING THE FUTURE
resources and capacities to achieve its individual
goals and, at the same time, cooperate regionally

OF FISHERIES AND
and internationally in order to organize collective
solutions to global issues of food securit y. They

AQUACULTURE WITH
stressed that, in a world of increasingly
interlinked institutions, societies and economies,

THE 2030 AGENDA

coordinated efforts and shared responsibilities
are essential. 3 According to a UN report, 4 the

FOR SUSTAINABLE
current world population of more than 7.4 billion
is projected to reach 8.5 billion in 2030 and

DEVELOPMENT
9.7 billion in 2050, with most of the increase
occurring in developing regions. Ensuring
adequate food and nutrition securit y to this
Food securit y and nutrition represent a global growing population is a daunting challenge. The
challenge, as hunger and malnutrition remain fisheries and aquaculture sector plays and can
among the most devastating problems facing the continue to play a prominent role in world food
world. The Millennium Development Goals securit y. Fish is a vital source of food including
(MDGs) included a target of halving the micronutrients, particularly for many low-income
proportion of people who suffer from hunger populations in rural areas, and the sector also
between 1990 and 2015. According to The State of contributes to economic growth and development
Food Insecurity in the World 2015,1 this target was by being a source of employment, livelihoods and
almost met at the global level, but progress was income to millions of people engaged in fish
uneven across countries and there remained har vesting, culturing, processing and trade. This
almost 780 million undernourished when the key role has become even more important
MDGs concluded in 2015. The 2030 Agenda for through the significant changes being
Sustainable Development and the new experienced by the sector in recent decades, and
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which especially in the last two. With differences
succeed the MDGs, have the ambitious aim of among regions and countries, these
ending povert y and hunger by 2030. Food transformations include: the stabilization of total
securit y goes beyond g uarding against hunger capture fisheries production at 90 –95 million
and malnutrition as it exists when “all people, at tonnes since mid-1990s; the rapid increase in
all times, have physical, social and economic global aquaculture production, reaching about
access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food 74 million tonnes in 2014 and outpacing all other
which meets their dietar y needs and food food-producing systems; the globalization of the
preferences for an active and healthy life.” 2 In industr y, with substantial growth in world trade
this regard, in 1996, the Rome Declaration on in fish and fisheries products, particularly in
World Food Securit y and the World Food Summit value terms; and the rising demand for fish and
Plan of Action laid the foundations for diverse fisher y products.
paths to the common objective of food securit y, at
the individual, household, national, regional and Whether the present trends in the sector continue
global levels. They indicated that each nation will depend on a number of important
needed to adopt a strateg y consistent with its uncertainties. A key question is: Which will the

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 THE STATE OF WORLD FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE 2016

future perspectives of development for this sector by the agricultural market model Aglink-Cosimo
be? Population and income growth, together with elaborated jointly by the OECD and FAO. The
urbanization and dietar y diversification, are projections are elaborated annually and
expected to create additional demand and to published in the OECD-FAO Agricultural
continue to change the composition of food Outlook publication. 8 They provide, for a ten-year
consumption towards a growing share of animal horizon, an outlook for the sector in terms of
products, including fish, in developing countries. potential production, use (human consumption,
New and traditional demand for fisher y products fishmeal and fish oil), prices and key issues that
from both capture fisheries and aquaculture will might inf luence future supply and demand. They
put growing pressure on fisheries resources, and also highlight regional v ulnerabilities, changes in
the future of the sector, being inf luenced by comparative advantage, price effects, and
internal and external driving forces, is complex potential adaptation strategies in the sector.
and uncertain. However, the results should not be considered as
forecasts but plausible trends that provide
This Outlook section is composed of two distinct insights into how the sector may develop, taking
parts. The first part describes the most plausible note of specific assumptions regarding: the future
trends for the fisher y and aquaculture sector in macroeconomic environment; international trade
the next decade, while the second part outlines rules and tariffs; frequency and effects of El Niño
the expectations and roles of the 2030 Agenda, phenomena; absence of other severe climate
the SDGs and FAO’s Blue Growth Initiative (BGI) effects and of abnormal fish-related disease
in shaping future developments. outbreaks; fisher y quotas; longer-term
productivit y trends; and the absence of market
shocks. Should any of these assumptions change,
Expected trends in fish the resulting fish projections would be affected.

supply and demand Production

Under the set of assumptions used in the fish
As indicated in the Outlook of The State of World model and as stimulated by technological
Fisheries and Aquaculture 2014, 5 presenting the improvements and higher demand for fish,9 total
results of specific fish projections is a standard world fisher y production (capture plus
feature of this publication. This edition presents aquaculture) is projected to expand over the
the key results for the period 2016 –2025 for the period, reaching 196 million tonnes in 2025
FAO fish model. 6 This model was developed by (Table 22). This represents an increase of
FAO in 2010 in collaboration with the 17 percent between the base period (average
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and 2013 –15) and 2025, but indicates a slower annual
Development (OECD) with a view to gaining growth compared with the previous decade
insights as to the potential path of development (1.5 percent versus 2.5 percent). The absolute
for the fisheries and aquaculture sector. 7 The growth will be about 29 million tonnes by 2025
dynamic policy specific partial equilibrium model compared with the average 2013 –15 level.
on fish is at present a stand-alone model using Almost all of the increase in production will
the same macroeconomic assumptions and the originate from developing countries. Their share
same feed and food prices employed or generated in total output will increase from 83 percent in

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PART 4 OUTLOOK

the base period to 85 percent in 2025. A more accounting for 62 percent of world output. Other
marked expansion is expected in Asia, with its major increases are expected in Latin America, in
share in total production rising from 70 percent particular in Brazil (104 percent higher) due to
to 73 percent. Of the additional 29 million significant investments in the sector. African
tonnes of output by 2025, 25 million tonnes will production will also expand over the projected
be produced in Asia, 1.8 million tonnes in Latin period by 35 percent (reaching 2.3 million tonnes)
America and the Caribbean, 1.6 million tonnes due partly to the additional capacit y put in place
in Africa, 0.7 million tonnes in Europe, and the in recent years, but also in response to rising
rest in Oceania and North America. About local demand from higher economic growth, and
91 percent of total fisher y production, or local policies promoting aquaculture.
178 million tonnes, is estimated to be destined
for direct human consumption. Freshwater species, such as carp, catfish
(including Pangasius) and tilapia, will account for
Surging demand for fish and fisher y products will most of the increase in aquaculture production
mainly be met by growth in supply from and represent about 60 percent of total
aquaculture production, which is expected to aquaculture production in 2025. Production of
reach 102 million tonnes by 2025, 39 percent higher-value species, such as shrimps, salmon
higher than the base period level. Aquaculture and trout, is also projected to continue to grow in
will remain one of the fastest-growing sectors for the next decade.
animal food production, although its annual
growth rate is estimated to decline from The share of aquaculture in total fisher y
5.4 percent in the previous decade to 3.0 percent production will grow from 44 percent on average
in the projection period. This slowdown in in 2013 –15 to surpass capture fisheries in 2021. In
expansion will be mainly due to: constraints on 2025, this share will reach 52 percent (Fig ure 34).
the availabilit y and accessibilit y to water of good This development highlights a new era,
qualit y; competition from alternative uses for indicating that aquaculture will increasingly be
optimal production locations; availabilit y of fish the main driver of change in the fisheries and
seeds and feeds in the requisite qualit y and aquaculture sector. Nonetheless, the capture
quantities; insufficient investments in fisheries sector will remain dominant for a
infrastructure in regions endowed with natural number of species and vital for domestic and
resources for aquaculture production; capital international food securit y. Capture fisher y
constraints; and challenges in governance and production is projected to increase by about
reg ulator y framework. Furthermore, even if 1 percent, reaching more than 94 million tonnes
slightly declining, the still high costs of fishmeal, in 2025. This slight improvement is expected to
fish oil and other feeds will remain a be due to a combination of factors, several of
constraining factor (as only about 30 percent of which will be dependent on progress towards
the species do not need any feed concentrates to meeting SDG targets (see below), including: the
grow). Developing countries will maintain their recover y of certain stocks following improved
key role in aquaculture production, with a share management regimes by some countries; some
of 95 percent of total production. They are growth in har vests in those few countries not
expected to capture 96 percent of the additional subject to strict production quotas; declining oil
fish output growth in the projection period. prices; and enhanced utilization of fisher y
However, aquaculture production should production through reduced onboard discards,
continue to expand also in developed countries waste and losses as required by changes in
(rising 26 percent in the next decade) and in all legislation or stimulated by high fisher y prices
continents, with variations across countries and (including for fishmeal and fish oil). At the
regions in the product range of species and beginning of the outlook period, capture
products. Asian countries will remain the main production is not expected to increase ver y much,
producers, representing 89 percent of total due mainly to the El Niño effect on South
production in 2025, and with China alone American fisheries. In El Niño years,10 this »

| 172 |
 TABLE 22

MAIN RESULTS OF THE FISH MODEL: COMPARISON 2025 VS 2013–15: PRODUCTION

(LIVE WEIGHT EQUIVALENT)

PRODUCTION OF WHICH AQUACULTURE

GROWTH OF GROWTH OF
AVERAGE AVERAGE
2025 2025 VS 2025 2025 VS
2013–15 2013–15
2013–15 2013–15
(Thousand tonnes) (%) (Thousand tonnes) (%)
WORLD 166 889 195 911 17.4 73 305 101 768 38.8
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 29 018 29 305 1.0 4 393 5 521 25.7
North America 6 582 6 617 0.5 584 717 22.9
Canada 1 020 1 011 –0.9 159 211 32.8
United States of America 5 562 5 606 0.8 425 506 19.1
Europe 16 637 17 362 4.4 2 911 3 737 28.4
European Union 6 654 6 810 2.3 1 273 1 385 8.9
Norway 3 586 4 263 18.9 1 325 1 963 48.1
Russian Federation 4 419 4 516 2.2 161 216 34.5
Oceania developed 778 815 4.8 183 237 29.5
Australia 228 229 0.4 76 91 20.6
New Zealand 550 586 6.5 108 146 35.8
Other developed 5 022 4 510 –10.2 716 830 15.9
Japan 4 318 3 728 –13.7 651 743 14.1
South Africa 549 601 9.5 4 4 –1.5
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 137 871 166 606 20.8 68 911 96 247 39.7
Africa 9 699 11 208 15.6 1 696 2 287 34.8
North Africa 3 071 3 192 3.9 1 153 1 284 11.3
Egypt 1 498 1 646 9.9 1 138 1 268 11.4
Sub-Saharan Africa 6 628 8 015 20.9 543 1 002 84.6
Ghana 332 365 9.9 38 75 97.0
Nigeria 1 055 1 394 32.1 306 579 89.3
Latin America and
14 424 16 245 12.6 2 702 3 780 39.9
Caribbean
Argentina 840 906 7.9 4 6 53.9
Brazil 1 327 1 972 48.6 560 1 145 104.4
Chile 3 084 3 514 13.9 1 138 1 314 15.5
Mexico 1 730 1 876 8.4 193 297 54.2
Peru 4 914 5 111 4.0 117 111 –5.1
Asia and other Oceania 113 748 139 154 22.3 64 513 90 180 39.8
China 62 094 78 717 26.8 45 263 62 962 39.1
India 9 434 11 570 22.6 4 830 6 880 42.4
Indonesia 10 543 12 411 17.7 4 211 5 761 36.8
Philippines 3 142 3 429 9.1 795 982 23.5
Republic of Korea 2 039 1 980 –2.9 470 536 14.1
Thailand 2 719 2 965 9.0 942 1 191 26.4
Viet Nam 6 257 7 816 24.9 3 361 4 802 42.9
LEAST-DEVELOPED
13 950 17 181 23.2 3 328 5 470 64.4
COUNTRIES
OECD1 31 135 31 842 2.3 6 165 7 628 23.7
1
Organisation for Economic Co–operation and Development.
SOURCE: OECD and FAO.

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 PART 4 OUTLOOK

» climatic phenomenon is expected to cause a population growth and meat prices on the
2 percent decline in world capture fisheries, with demand side; and limited increase in capture
stronger effects on catches of anchoveta fisheries production and costs for feed, energ y
har vested by Peru and Chile. and crude oil on the supply side. In nominal
terms, average fish prices are all expected to
The portion of capture fisheries yield used to decline further in the first part of the projection
produce fishmeal will be about 16 percent by period due to slower economic growth, sluggish
2025, about 1 percent less than in the base demand in some key markets, and lower input
period. This will be due mainly to the growing costs. However, in the last five years of the
demand for human consumption of fish species outlook period, prices are expected to
previously used for reduction, as well as more subsequently stabilize and grow slightly, and
limited availabilit y of raw material and more then remain on an elevated plateau by the end of
fishmeal produced from by-products. The share the decade. In 2025, average producer prices are
of capture production reduced into fishmeal and/ projected to be slightly higher than during the
or fish oil will be slightly smaller in El Niño years 2013 –15 base period, as demand growth is
owing to lower anchoveta catches. In 2025, expected to outpace supply. However, the average
fishmeal and fish-oil production, in product prices for traded products for human
weight, should be 5.1 million tonnes and consumption, fishmeal and fish oil are projected
1.0 million tonnes, respectively. In that year, to be slightly lower in 2025 relative to the base
fishmeal production will be 15 percent higher period. Yet, in real terms, all prices are projected
compared with the 2013 –15 average, but about to decline somewhat from the peak of 2014, but
96 percent of the increase will stem from then remain on a high plateau (Fig ure 35).
improved use of fish waste, cuttings and
trimmings. As more fish is consumed as fillets or Capture fisheries are expected to remain under
in other prepared and preser ved forms, a growing restrictive production quotas while demand for
share of its residual production, such as heads, certain species continues to be sustained. In
tails, bones and other offal resulting from nominal terms, the average price for wild fish
processing, is expected to be reduced into (excluding fish for reduction) is projected to grow
fishmeal and fish oil. Fishmeal produced from by more than that for farmed fish (7 percent
fish waste will represent 38 percent of world compared with 2 percent) between the base
fishmeal production in 2025, compared with period and 2025, with average annual growth
29 percent for the 2013 –15 average level. The use rates of 1.0 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively,
of fish by-products can affect the composition over the projection period. However, the overall
and qualit y of the resulting fishmeal and/or fish price of fish caught in the wild will remain lower
oil with, in general, less protein, more ash than that for farmed fish. This is partially
(minerals) and increased levels of small amino explained by the increasing share of lower-value
acids (such as glycine, proline, hydrox yproline) fish in overall catches. The limited increase in the
compared with those obtained from whole fish. average aquaculture price is also due to the
This difference in composition may hinder decline of feed prices from the high levels
increased use of fishmeal and/or fish oil in feeds recorded in 2011–12 as well as better feed
used in aquaculture and livestock farming. conversion ratios and continuing productivit y
However, the fish model and its projections do gains (even though at a slower pace than in
not take these changes into consideration. previous decades). In real terms, both capture
and aquaculture prices are expected to decline by
Prices about 13 percent and 17 percent, respectively,
On average, fish prices were lower in 2015 during the outlook period.
compared with the peaks recorded in 2014. In the
next decade, the main drivers affecting world fish Fishmeal prices increased significantly from 2006
prices for capture, aquaculture and to 2013, peaking at US$1 747 per tonne in 2013.
internationally traded products will be: income, Since then, there has been a slight decline, but »

| 174 |
 FIGURE 34

GLOBAL CAPTURE FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION TO 2025

120
MILLION TONNES (LIVE WEIGHT EQUIVALENT)

100

80

60

40

20

0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Aquaculture for human Total capture fisheries Capture fisheries for human
consumption consumption

SOURCE: OECD and FAO.

FIGURE 35

GLOBAL FISH PRICES IN NOMINAL AND REAL TERMS TO 2025

NOMINAL REAL
3 500 3 500

3 000 3 000

2 500 2 500
US$/TONNE

US$/TONNE

2 000 2 000

1 500 1 500

1 000 1 000

500 500

0 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Food fish traded Aquaculture Food fish traded Aquaculture

Fish oil Capture Fish oil Capture
Fishmeal Fishmeal

Note: Food fish traded: world unit value of trade for human consumption (sum of exports and imports). Aquaculture: FAO world unit
value of aquaculture fisheries production (live weight basis). Capture: FAO estimated value of world ex-vessel value of capture fisheries
production excluding for reduction. Fishmeal: 64–65% protein, Hamburg, Germany. Fish oil: any origin, Northwest Europe.
SOURCE: OECD and FAO.

| 175 |
 PART 4 OUTLOOK

» prices have remained high. By 2025, the average feed for aquaculture, livestock and other animals.
fishmeal price is expected to be 14 percent lower World apparent fish consumption is projected to
in nominal terms and 30 percent lower in real increase by 31 million tonnes (Fig ure 36) in the
terms compared with the base period. The only next decade to reach 178 million tonnes in 2025
exceptions will be in El Niño years due to (Table 23). On a per capita basis, apparent fish
reduced catches in South America, in particular consumption will be 21.8 kg (live weight
for anchoveta, which is mainly used for reduction equivalent) in 2025, 8 percent above the base
into fishmeal and fish oil. Starting from ver y high period level of 20.2 kg. The driving force behind
levels, fish-oil prices are expected to decline in this increase will be a combination of rising
the period 2016 –2025, but still remain higher incomes and urbanization interlinked with the
than fishmeal prices. The average fish-oil price is expansion of fish production and improved
projected to decline by 3 percent in nominal distribution channels. However, consumption
terms, and by 21 percent in real terms, between will grow at a slightly slower pace than in the
the base period and 2025. historical period, in particular in the second half
of the outlook period, when fish will start to
The average price of traded fish products will also become more expensive in comparison with meat.
decline over the outlook period, with a 5 percent The annual growth rate of per capita apparent
decrease in nominal terms and a fall of about fish consumption is projected to decline from
23 percent in real terms by 2025. The main 1.9 percent in the past decade to 0.8 percent over
drivers for this decline will be the competitive the next ten years. With human consumption of
prices of substitutes, in particular chicken, the farmed species exceeding that of capture fisheries
slowdown in demand from key markets due to for the first time in 2014 (see section Fish
sluggish economic growth, and the reduced consumption, p. 70), aquaculture is expected to
production and marketing costs of aquaculture further increase its share and provide 57 percent
products due to lower transport and feed costs. of fish for human consumption in 2025.
Owing to the already low or minimal import
tariffs in the main importing developed Per capita fish consumption is expected to increase
countries, international fish trade is projected to in all continents, with Asia, Oceania and Latin
remain relatively liberal, and global price changes America and the Caribbean showing the fastest
should continue to be readily transmitted from growth. In particular, major increases are
one market to another. However, in many projected in Brazil, Peru, Chile, China and Mexico.
developing countries, import tariffs and licences Apparent fish consumption will remain static or
can continue to play a significant role. Price decrease in a few countries, including Japan, the
changes in international markets will have Russian Federation, Argentina and Canada. A
spillover effects on non-traded species as well. slight increase (2 percent) is projected for Africa.
For individual fisher y commodities, price This growth will be enhanced by increasing
volatilit y could be more pronounced due to African aquaculture production and imports.
supply swings caused by drastic changes in catch Disparities in fish consumption will remain
quotas and disease outbreaks in the aquaculture between developed and developing countries, with
sector as well as f luctuations in feed costs. the latter having lower levels of consumption,
although the gap is narrowing. In developing
Consumption countries, annual per capita fish consumption will
Fish is expected to remain predominantly utilized rise from 19.6 kg in the base period to 21.5 kg in
for human consumption, making a valuable and 2025. In the same period, per capita fish
nutritious contribution to diversified and healthy consumption in developed countries is estimated
diets. The main utilization for non-food uses will to increase from 22.7 kg to 23.4 kg. However, if
continue to be reduction into fishmeal and fish sub-Saharan Africa is excluded, per capita fish
oil, and other uses will be for ornamental consumption in 2025 in developing countries will
purposes, aquaculture purposes (fingerlings, fr y, reach 24.3 kg, being higher than consumption in
etc.), bait, pharmaceutical purposes and as direct developed countries. Overall, developing countries »

| 176 |
 TABLE 23

MAIN RESULTS OF THE FISH MODEL: COMPARISON 2025 VS 2013–15: FOOD FISH
SUPPLY (LIVE WEIGHT EQUIVALENT)

FOOD FISH SUPPLY PER CAPITA FISH CONSUMPTION

GROWTH OF GROWTH OF
AVERAGE AVERAGE
2025 2025 VS 2025 2025 VS
2013–15 2013–15
2013–15 2013–15
(Thousand tonnes) (%) (kg) (%)
WORLD 146 648 177 679 21.2 20.2 21.8 7.9
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 31 917 33 950 6.4 22.7 23.4 3.1
North America 8 381 9 339 11.4 23.6 24.3 3.0
Canada 801 851 6.2 22.5 21.8 –3.1
United States of America 7 580 8 488 12.0 23.7 24.6 3.8
Europe 15 568 16 605 6.7 20.8 22.2 6.7
European Union 11 082 12 181 9.9 22.0 23.9 8.6
Norway 274 317 15.7 53.3 55.3 3.8
Russian Federation 3 171 2 979 –6.1 22.1 21.1 –4.5
Oceania developed 760 1 014 33.4 27.0 31.7 17.4
Australia 646 893 38.2 27.3 33.0 20.9
New Zealand 115 122 6.1 25.5 24.7 –3.1
Other developed 7 207 6 992 –3.0 26.5 24.6 –7.2
Japan 6 362 6 035 –5.1 50.2 49.1 –2.2
South Africa 417 430 3.1 7.7 7.4 –3.9
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 114 732 143 730 25.3 19.6 21.5 9.7
Africa 10 881 14 655 34.7 10.0 10.2 2.0
North Africa 2 803 3 553 26.8 15.6 16.7 7.1
Egypt 1 875 2 446 30.5 20.9 22.5 7.7
Sub-Saharan Africa 8 078 11 102 37.4 8.9 9.1 2.2
Ghana 639 656 2.7 23.9 19.5 –18.4
Nigeria 2 097 2 910 38.8 11.8 12.5 5.9
Latin America and
6 302 8 476 34.5 10.0 12.2 22.0
Caribbean
Argentina 207 192 –7.2 4.8 4.0 –16.7
Brazil 1 972 2 841 44.1 9.6 12.7 32.3
Chile 253 314 24.1 14.2 16.0 12.7
Mexico 1 610 2 117 31.5 12.8 14.9 16.4
Peru 675 969 43.6 21.8 27.6 26.6
Asia and other Oceania 97 549 120 599 23.6 23.5 26.4 12.3
China 54 128 66 747 23.3 39.5 47.2 19.5
India 7 755 9 758 25.8 6.0 6.7 11.7
Indonesia 8 896 11 206 26.0 35.0 39.4 12.6
Philippines 3 091 3 703 19.8 31.2 31.9 2.2
Republic of Korea 2 924 3 340 14.2 58.4 64.3 10.1
Thailand 1 859 1 879 1.1 27.5 27.4 –0.4
Viet Nam 3 275 3 846 17.4 35.4 37.7 6.5
LEAST-DEVELOPED
12 170 15 978 31.3 13.2 13.6 3.0
COUNTRIES
OECD1 32 314 35 410 9.6 24.7 25.8 4.5
1
Organisation for Economic Co–operation and Development.
Source: OECD and FAO.

| 177 |
 PART 4 OUTLOOK

» are projected to eat 93 percent of the additional fish oil is expected to be increasingly processed
fish available for human consumption during the for direct human use as it is considered beneficial
projected period. The 10 percent increase in their for a wide range of biological functions.
apparent per capita fish consumption will be due
to the combination of several factors affecting the Trade
intake of animal proteins at expense of other Fish and fisher y products will continue to be
food. These factors include: rising living highly traded, fuelled by increasing consumption
standards; population growth; rapid of fisher y commodities, trade liberalization
urbanization; growing recognition of fish as policies, globalization of food systems, and
healthy and nutritious food; and technological technological innovations in processing,
developments in food, processing, packaging and preser vation, packaging and transportation.
distribution. The slight increase in the high rates About 36 percent of total fisher y production
of per capita consumption in developed countries including trade between member States of the
ref lects, among other things, slowing population European Union (intra-EU trade) is expected to
growth and dietar y shifts that are already under be exported 11 in the form of different products for
way. Moreover, consumers, especially in more- human consumption or non-edible purposes in
developed economies, are increasingly concerned 2025 (excluding intra-EU trade, the fig ure is
about sustainabilit y issues, animal welfare and 31 percent). A share of this trade might consist of
food safet y, which may also affect their species traded in different stages of processing
consumption patterns, including for fisher y among countries and regions. This makes the
products. A sizeable and growing share of fish fisheries and aquaculture sector rather complex
consumed in developed countries will be met and globalized.
by imports.
World trade in fish for human consumption is
Notwithstanding the increased availabilit y of fish expected to exceed 46 million tonnes in live
to most consumers, the rise in fish consumption weight equivalent in 2025, up 18 percent from the
will not be homogenous among countries and base period (Table 24), with a slowdown in its
within countries in terms of quantit y and variet y annual growth rate from 2.3 percent in 2006 –
consumed. As the fisheries and aquaculture 2015 to 1.9 percent in 2016 –2025. This decline
sector will remain one of the most globalized of will be caused by high prices, slower growth of
all food sectors, consumers will also be exposed fisher y production and stronger domestic demand
to the impacts of global trends as supply chains in some of the major exporting countries.
lengthen and as growing urbanization and Aquaculture will contribute to a growing share of
improved distribution increase the range of the international trade in fisher y commodities for
products available. human consumption.

Consumption of fishmeal and fish oil will remain The next decade will be characterized by an
characterized by the traditional competition increasing role of developing countries in fisher y
between aquaculture and livestock for fishmeal, trade, and a corresponding decline in the share of
and between aquaculture and dietar y developed economies. In the next decade,
supplements for direct human consumption for developing countries will continue to lead fisher y
fish oil, but will be constrained by the rather exports of fish for human consumption,
stable production. Due to still high prices and notwithstanding a slight decline in their share in
major innovation efforts, it is expected that the total trade of fish for human consumption (from
percentage of fishmeal and fish oil in compound 67 percent in the base period to 66 percent in
feeds in aquaculture will continue its downward 2025). Due to their primar y role in fisher y
trend (Fig ure 37), and fishmeal and fish oil will production, the bulk of the growth in fish exports
be more frequently used as strategic ingredients is projected to originate from Asian countries,
to enhance growth at specific stages of fish which will account for about 67 percent of the
production. Being rich in omega-3 fatt y acids, additional exports by 2025. In the same year, »

| 178 |
 FIGURE 36

ADDITIONAL FISH CONSUMED IN 2025

Africa
100 12%
90 Asia
80 73%
PERCENTAGE

70
60 Latin America China
50 and Caribbean India
40 7%
Indonesia
30 Europe
Bangladesh
20 4%
Viet Nam
10 North America
0 3% Other Asia
2025 Oceania
1%
Developing countries
Developed countries

SOURCE: OECD and FAO.

40
FIGURE 37
30
PERCENTAGE

SHARE OF FISHMEAL USED AS FEED IN AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION OF SALMON

20

AND SHRIMP
10

0
40
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

SALMON SHRIMP
1995 2000 2005 302010 2015 2020 2025 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
PERCENTAGE

Fishmeal Oilseed meal

SALMON SHRIMP
20
Fishmeal Oilseed meal

10

0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

SALMON SHRIMP

Fishmeal Oilseed meal

SOURCE: OECD and FAO.

FIGURE 38

RELATIVE SHARES OF AQUACULTURE AND CAPTURE FISHERIES IN PRODUCTION

AND CONSUMPTION
GLOBAL FISH PRODUCTION GLOBAL FISH CONSUMPTION

44% 2013–2015 56% 52% 2025 48% 50% 2013–2015 50% 57% 2025 43%

Capture fisheries Aquaculture Capture fisheries for Aquaculture for

human consumption human consumption

SOURCE: OECD and FAO.

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 PART 4 OUTLOOK

» Asian countries are expected to slightly increase Main uncertainties

their share in world exports for human Many factors can affect the fish projections
consumption from 50 to 53 percent as a result of reported in this section. The next decade is likely
further expansion of their aquaculture to see major changes in the environment,
production. At the countr y level, China, resources, macroeconomic conditions,
Viet Nam and Norway will be the world’s largest international trade rules and tariffs, market
fish exporters. characteristics, and social conduct. Their effects
may inf luence production and fish markets in the
Owing to their slow but continuous economic medium term.
recover y, demand for seafood in major developed
economies in Japan and in Europe and North Climate change, variabilit y and extreme weather
America is expected to be revitalized, with events are also compounding threats to the
growing imports of fish for human consumption. sustainabilit y of capture fisheries and
Due to stagnating domestic fisher y production, aquaculture development in marine and
overall, developed countries will remain highly freshwater environments.12 Impacts occur as a
dependent on external supplies to satisf y their result of both gradual atmospheric warming and
domestic demand, with their imports expected to associated physical (sea surface temperature,
increase by 20 percent over the Outlook period. ocean circulation, waves and storm systems) and
However, although developed countries will chemical changes (salinit y content, ox ygen
continue to dominate world imports of fish and concentration, and acidification) of the aquatic
fisher y products for human consumption, their environment.13 This could lead to: warming water
share in global imports will decrease from temperatures; changing ocean currents and
54 percent in 2013 –15 to 53 percent in 2025. Southern Oscillation; sea-level rise; changes in
Import expansion for developing countries will rainfall, river f lows, lake levels, thermal
consist of supplies of raw material for their structure, and storm severit y and frequency; and
processing sectors for subsequent re-export and, ocean acidification. These impacts could result in
increasingly, of products destined to meet changes in catch quantit y and composition, and
surging domestic consumption, in particular for in fish distribution. Moreover, extreme weather
species not produced locally. Increasing imports events and sea-level rise are anticipated to affect
are expected to be recorded by several Asian fisheries-related infrastructure such as ports and
countries (including Indonesia, the Philippines f leets, further raising the costs of fishing,
and Viet Nam), Brazil, and selected countries in processing and distribution activities. These
the Near East and in Africa. possible events would take place in the context of
other global social and economic pressures on
Exports of fishmeal are projected to remain natural resources and ecosystems, including
steady at base period levels (3.0 million tonnes in environmental degradation and increasing land
product weight), with an overall increase of and water scarcit y.
15 percent in 2016 –2025. Developing countries
will remain the main exporters and importers of In the coming decade, capture fisheries
fishmeal. Owing to their leading role in production is projected to remain rather stable.
aquaculture production, Asian countries will However, the real prospects for capture
remain the main importers of fishmeal. Peru will fisheries are rather difficult to determine
be the leading exporter of fishmeal, followed by because they depend on the natural
the United States of America, Chile and Thailand. productivit y of fish stocks and ecosystems, and
Fish-oil exports are expected to increase (by are subject to many variables and uncertainties.
9 percent) over the period 2016 –2025. Due to Moreover, illegal unreported and unreg ulated
salmon farming and growing demand for fish to (IUU) fishing and the overcapacit y of fishing
be consumed as food, European countries will f leets globally are other important threats
represent the main importers, with a 57 percent affecting the sustainabilit y of fisheries
share of global fish-oil imports in 2025. resources. In addition, the ongoing practice of »

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 TABLE 24

MAIN RESULTS OF THE FISH MODEL: COMPARISON 2025 VS 2013–15: TRADE

(LIVE WEIGHT EQUIVALENT)

EXPORTS IMPORTS
GROWTH OF GROWTH OF
AVERAGE AVERAGE
2025 2025 VS 2025 2025 VS
2013–15 2013–15
2013–15 2013–15
(Thousand tonnes) (%) (Thousand tonnes) (%)
WORLD 39 149 46 359 18.4 38 340 46 359 20.9
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 13 097 15 707 19.9 20 793 24 447 17.6
North America 2 978 3 685 23.7 5 747 7 348 27.9
Canada 792 781 –1.4 650 701 7.8
United States of America 2 186 2 905 32.9 5 097 6 647 30.4
Europe 8 783 10 422 18.7 10 252 11 699 14.1
European Union 2 470 3 001 21.5 7 818 9 137 16.9
Norway 2 930 3 700 26.3 285 180 –36.8
Russian Federation 1 983 2 448 23.4 1 079 1 133 5.0
Oceania developed 483 487 0.8 568 799 40.7
Australia 61 40 –34.4 516 748 45.0
New Zealand 422 447 5.9 52 51 –1.9
Other developed 854 1 112 30.2 4 225 4 601 8.9
Japan 639 864 35.2 3 668 3 841 4.7
South Africa 165 183 10.9 234 351 50.0
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 26 052 30 652 17.7 17 547 21 912 24.9
Africa 2 110 1 483 –29.7 3 949 5 527 40.0
North Africa 622 603 –3.1 687 1 247 81.5
Egypt 26 20 –23.1 404 820 103.0
Sub-Saharan Africa 1 488 880 –40.9 3 263 4 280 31.2
Ghana 31 30 –3.2 335 321 –4.2
Nigeria 11 9 –18.2 1 053 1 525 44.8
Latin America and
4 430 5 194 17.2 2 431 3 272 34.6
Caribbean
Argentina 680 762 12.1 58 60 3.4
Brazil 40 48 20.0 757 991 30.9
Chile 1 512 1 767 16.9 120 118 –1.7
Mexico 185 161 –13.0 407 750 84.3
Peru 649 879 35.4 148 203 37.2
Asia and other Oceania 19 513 23 975 22.9 11 166 13 113 17.4
China 7 759 11 257 45.1 3 413 2 884 –15.5
India 1 063 947 –10.9 25 25 0.0
Indonesia 1 320 1 408 6.7 182 509 179.7
Philippines 413 322 –22.0 359 596 66.0
Republic of Korea 662 410 –38.1 1 637 1 870 14.2
Thailand 2 082 2 624 26.0 1 694 1 867 10.2
Viet Nam 2 651 3 669 38.4 278 413 48.6
LEAST-DEVELOPED
1 462 1 178 –19.4 1 018 1 089 7.0
COUNTRIES
OECD1 13 266 15 415 16.2 20 760 24 800 19.5
1
Organisation for Economic Co–operation and Development.
Source: OECD and FAO.

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 PART 4 OUTLOOK

» f leets moving their operations from depleted Summary of main outcomes from projections
areas to new areas can cause a long-term The following major trends for the period up to
decline in global catches as overfishing spreads. 2025 emerge from the analyses:
These situations are also linked with, and
exacerbated by, the poor governance „ „World production, total consumption, food
characterizing several fisheries activities. demand and per capita food consumption will
increase over the next decade; however, the
It is expected that future growth in fish rate of these increases will slow over time.
production and related fish consumption will „ „World capture production is projected to
mainly originate from aquaculture (Fig ure 38). increase only slightly if overfished stocks are
However, many factors might affect the prospects well managed, while expanding world
for this sector. These include: land and water and aquaculture production is projected to fill the
associated conf licts; feed, seed 14 supply and supply–demand gap, albeit growing more
genetic resources; environmental integrit y and slowly than in the past.
disease problems; development and adoption of „ „The major changes in demand are in
new and improved farming technologies; market, developing countries, where continued but
trade and food safet y; climate change; investment slowing population growth, rising per capita
capital impediments; and problems that can incomes and urbanization will all increase the
originate from ung uided and unmonitored demand for fisher y products.
aquaculture practices. Aquaculture is also „ „Prices will decline in real terms but remain on
expected to continue to grow through a high plateau.
intensification, species diversification, expansion „ „Trade in fish and fisher y products is expected
into new milieus (including moving farther into to increase more slowly than in the past
offshore marine waters) and through the decade, and the share of fish production being
introduction of innovative, more-resource- exported is projected to remain stable.
efficient farming technologies. Well-advised „ „Progress in ensuring the sustainabilit y of
policies and strategies backed by strong research capture fisheries and aquaculture and their
programmes will be of paramount importance in contribution to the fight against hunger and
overcoming production constraints. povert y and to economic and social
development is critical, emphasizing the
Consumer concerns related to issues such as crucial importance of integrated approaches to
animal welfare, food qualit y, production and the implementation of the 2030 Agenda and all
processing methods may cause further its relevant SDG targets.
uncertainties in the fish sector. Especially in
more-aff luent markets, consumers are
increasingly requiring high standards of qualit y The 2030 Agenda for
assurance and demanding g uarantees that the
fish they purchase are produced sustainably. Sustainable Development
Stringent qualit y- and safet y-related import
standards, together with requirements for
and the fisheries and
products meeting international animal health aquaculture sector
and environmental standards and social
responsibilit y requirements, might act as barriers At the United Nations Sustainable Development
to small-scale fish producers and operators Summit on 25 September 2015, leaders of UN
attempting to penetrate international markets Member States adopted the 2030 Agenda for
and distribution channels. Future prices might Sustainable Development,15 which includes a set
be inf luenced not only by higher feed prices but of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
also by the introduction of more rigorous The 2030 Agenda defines global sustainable
reg ulations on the environment, food safet y, development priorities and aspirations for 2030
traceabilit y and animal welfare. and seeks to mobilize global efforts to benefit

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 THE STATE OF WORLD FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE 2016

people, planet, prosperit y, peace and partnership. FAO emphasizes that food and agriculture are
It not only covers the SDGs but also the Addis key to achieving the 2030 Agenda. 20 FAO’s tasks
Ababa Action Agenda 16 on financing for and work are in fact already contributing to
development as well as the Paris Agreement 17 on progress towards almost all SDGs. Both the SDGs
climate change. The SDGs aim, by 2030, inter and FAO’s Strategic Framework are geared
alia, to: end povert y and hunger; further develop towards tackling the root causes of povert y and
agriculture; support economic development and hunger, building a fairer societ y, and leaving no
employment; restore and sustainably manage one behind. In particular, SDG 1 (End povert y in
natural resources and biodiversit y; fight all its forms) and SDG 2 (End hunger, achieve
inequalit y and injustice; and tackle climate food securit y and improved nutrition and
change. The SDGs are truly transformative.18 promote sustainable agriculture) ref lect FAO’s
They are interlinked, calling for new vision and mandate. Other SDGs covering gender
combinations in the ways policies, programmes, (SDG 5), water (SDG 6), economic growth and
partnerships and investments pull together to employment and decent work (SDG 8), inequalit y
achieve the common goals. (SDG 10), production and consumption (SDG 12),
climate (SDG 13), oceans (SDG 14), biodiversit y
The 2030 Agenda strives for a world that is (SDG 15), and peace and justice (SDG 16) are also
just, rights-based, equitable and inclusive.19 It highly relevant, while the agreed means of
commits stakeholders to work together to implementation and the revitalized global
promote sustained and inclusive economic partnership (SDG 17) provide the basis for
growth, social development and environmental realization of the 2030 Agenda in all food and
protection, and to benefit all, including agriculture sectors, including fisheries,
women, children, youth and future aquaculture and post-har vest fisheries.
generations. The new agenda envisages a world
of universal respect for human rights, equalit y The importance of oceans, seas and coasts as
and non-discrimination, and the over-riding well as rivers, lakes and wetlands – including
message of the new agenda is “to leave no one their resources and ecosystems as utilized by
behind”, to ensure “targets met for all fisheries and aquaculture – for sustainable
nationals and peoples and for all segments of development is now widely recognized by the
societ y”, and “to reach the furthest behind international community. This was evident at
first”, with two dedicated goals on combating the 1992 Rio Summit, as embodied in Chapter 17
inequalit y and discrimination. (as well as in Chapters 14 and 18) of Agenda 21,
and runs through the historic 1995 Code of
Through the 2030 Agenda, nations acknowledge Conduct for Responsible Fisheries (the Code). It
the imperative of a revitalized global partnership: has been promoted most recently in the Rio+20
“an intensive global engagement in support of outcome document, 21 where Members called for
implementation of all the goals and targets, “holistic and integrated approaches to
bringing together Governments, civil society, the sustainable development that will guide
private sector, the United Nations system and humanity to live in harmony with nature and
other actors and mobilizing all available lead to efforts to restore the health and integrity
resources.” The revitalized global partnership will of the Earth’s ecosystem.”
endeavour to deliver the means of implementation
of the 2030 Agenda through “domestic public Several SDGs are relevant to fisheries and
resources, domestic and international private aquaculture and to the sustainable development of
business and finance, international development the sector (see section Global agenda – global
cooperation, international trade as an engine for ambitions, p. 80). Indeed, SDG 14 (Conserve and
development, debt and debt sustainability, sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine
addressing systemic issues and science, resources for sustainable development) expressly
technolog y, innovation and capacity-building, and focuses on the oceans, underlining the importance
data, monitoring and follow-up.” of the conservation and sustainable use of the

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PART 4 OUTLOOK

oceans and seas and of their resources for their livelihoods, food securit y and nutrition.
sustainable development, including through their Furthermore, the vital contributions of fisheries
contributions to poverty eradication, sustained and aquaculture to the world’s well-being and
economic growth, food security and creation of prosperit y are being compromised by poor
sustainable livelihoods and decent work. governance, management and practices, while
IUU fishing remains an obstacle to achieving
To allow oceans, seas and marine resources to sustainable fisheries.
continue to contribute to human well-being,
SDG 14 recognizes the need to manage and Several SDG 14 targets call for specific actions in
conser ve marine resources while supporting fisheries inter alia: effectively reg ulate
those ecosystem ser vices that are of crucial har vesting; end overfishing and IUU fishing;
importance for humans. A more sustainable use address fisheries subsidies; increase economic
of resources, changes in production and benefits from sustainable management of
consumption patterns, and improved fisheries and aquaculture; provide access for
management and reg ulation of human activities small-scale fishers to resources and markets;
can help reduce negative environmental impacts implement provisions of the United Nations
and allow current and future generations to Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
benefit from aquatic ecosystems. Promoting Other SDG 14 targets cover marine pollution
sustainable fishing and fish farming practices prevention and reduction, management and
will not only contribute to resource and protection of marine and coastal ecosystems all
ecosystem management and conser vation but of which are also important priorities for
ensure the world’s oceans and seas are able to sustainable fisheries and aquaculture. Thus,
deliver nutritious food. SDG 14 spells out the need for cooperation and
coordination among all stakeholders for more
Along with important contributions to global sustainable fisheries management and better
food and nutrition securit y, livelihoods and conser vation of resources. It creates a framework
national economic growth, oceans, seas and to sustainably manage and protect marine and
inland waters provide valuable ecosystem goods coastal ecosystems.
and ser vices for the planet. About 50 percent of
carbon in the atmosphere that becomes bound in Today’s holistic approach to sustainable
natural systems is cycled into the oceans and management and development of fisheries and
inland waters. However, these same oceans and aquaculture, as promoted by FAO’s Blue Growth
inland waters are under threat from Initiative (see below), aims at reconciling economic
overexploitation, pollution, declining growth with improved livelihoods and social
biodiversit y, expansion of invasive species, equity. It balances the sustainable and socio-
climate change and acidification. Stresses caused economic management of natural aquatic resources
by human activit y on the oceans’ life support with an emphasis on efficient resource use in
systems have reached unsustainable levels. capture fisheries and aquaculture, ecosystem
services, trade, livelihoods and food systems.
Today, 31 percent of commercially important
assessed marine fish stocks worldwide are National, regional and global efforts by fisheries
overfished (see section The status of fisher y and aquaculture stakeholders aiming to achieve
resources, p. 38). Mangroves, salt marshes and the 2030 Agenda will benefit from past and
seagrass beds are being cleared at an alarming ongoing processes of collaboration, mutual
rate, exacerbating climate change and global support and international consensus building.
warming. Aquatic pollution and habitat Measures aiming at the implementation of the
degradation continue to threaten fisheries and Code will prove the basis for implementation of
aquaculture resources in both inland and marine relevant SDG targets. Reporting on Code
waters. At risk are hundreds of millions of people implementation efforts to FAO’s Committee on
who depend on fisheries and aquaculture for Fisheries (COFI) and its Sub-Committees on

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 THE STATE OF WORLD FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE 2016

Trade and Aquaculture will demonstrate progress The 2030 Agenda places an emphasis on capacit y-
made towards the 2030 Agenda as reported by development efforts, especially those
national fisheries administrations, regional strengthening the policy environment,
fisher y bodies (RFBs), and international civil institutional arrangements and collaborative
societ y organizations (CSOs) and processes that will help empower fishing and
intergovernmental organizations. The aquaculture communities, CSOs, seafood value-
international fisheries communit y can build on a chain actors and public entities. Given the
solid framework of international instruments, multidimensional and interlinked nature of the
including the Code, supporting fisheries SDGs, effective coordination and strategic
governance worldwide. integration of policy and implementation efforts
addressing multiple SDG targets will be key to
The 2030 Agenda highlights the importance of achieving lasting and constructive changes in
building partnerships and strengthening policies and institutions, as well as participation
stakeholder participation as key to progress and in and commitments to actions at the local,
success to promote and effectively implement countr y and international levels. In many cases,
activities in support of specific as well as developing solutions to challenges in fisheries
interlinked SDG targets. International examples and aquaculture will require interactions and
of such ongoing initiatives in the fisheries and collaboration with, and support from,
aquaculture sector include: stakeholders and institutions outside the sector.
The 2030 Agenda encourages such interactions
„ „the Global Partnership for Climate, Fisheries and processes that will lead to more integrated,
and Aquaculture 22 (covering SDGs 2, 13 and 14); efficient, inclusive and better coordinated
„ „the promotion and implementation by local, initiatives as they address multiple SDG targets.
national and international CSOs and multiple
governments of the Voluntar y Guidelines for It will be of paramount importance for
Securing Sustainable Small-Scale Fisheries in governmental and non-governmental stakeholders
the Context of Food Securit y and Povert y in fisheries and aquaculture to familiarize
Eradication 23 (SDGs 1, 2, 5, 8 and 14); themselves with the 2030 Agenda and the SDGs,
„ „cooperation between national institutions and and to further promote awareness and action
between FAO, the International Maritime towards their achievement. Of significant relevance
Organization, and the International Labour is SDG 17 (means of implementation and global
Organization (ILO) in the fight against IUU partnership for sustainable development), which
fishing and other crime associated with fishing covers commitments on finance, technolog y,
through: support to national and regional capacity building, trade, policy and institutional
plans of actions to combat IUU fishing; coherence, multistakeholder partnerships and data,
implementation of the Voluntar y Guidelines for monitoring and accountability.
Flag State Performance; 24 development of the
Global Record of Fishing Vessels; 25 and FAO is advising Members on SDG
implementation of FAO’s Port State Measures implementation policies and processes, including
Agreement, 26 ILO’s Work in Fishing follow-up, monitoring and review. It is
Convention 188 27 and other instruments on collaborating with UN-Oceans, the UN Statistical
safet y at sea and decent work in fisheries Division, the Inter-Agency Expert Group on SDG
(SDGs 14 and 8); indicators, the Inter-Agency Task Force on
„ „support to implementation, monitoring and Financing for Development outcomes and means
review of efforts related to SDG 14.c on of implementation of the 2030 Agenda, and other
UNCLOS and other relevant binding and partners. FAO is also contributing to the High-
voluntar y oceans governance instruments level Political Forum on Sustainable
through consultation and coordination within Development, 29 which is the main platform for
and beyond the UN-Oceans 28 interagency SDG follow-up and review and which may draw
collaboration mechanism (SDGs 14 and 17). on the work of other intergovernmental bodies

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PART 4 OUTLOOK

and fora that review progress and discuss policies „ „Target 14.6: By 2020, prohibit certain forms of
in specific areas, including the Committee on fisheries subsidies which contribute to
World Food Securit y and FAO’s Technical overcapacit y and overfishing, eliminate
Committees such as COFI. subsidies that contribute to illegal, unreported
and unreg ulated fishing and refrain from
Monitoring progress introducing new such subsidies, recognizing
Through an unprecedented consultative process that appropriate and effective special and
driven by UN Members, the adopted SDG differential treatment for developing and least
framework contains a set of 169 targets and developed countries should be an integral part
231 indicators to measure and monitor progress of the World Trade Organization fisheries
at the global level. subsidies negotiation.
Indicator 14.6.1: Progress by countries in the
Sustainable Development Goal 14 comprises ten degree of implementation of international
targets – with several explicitly addressing instruments aiming to combat illegal,
fisheries-related issues and others with direct unreported and unreg ulated fishing.
implications for the fisheries sector. The „ „Target 14.b: Provide access for small-scale
fisheries-related targets call for actions to: artisanal fishers to marine resources
effectively reg ulate har vesting and to end and markets.
overfishing, IUU fishing and destructive fishing Indicator 14.b.1: Progress by countries in the
practices; address fisheries subsidies; increase degree of application of a legal/reg ulator y/
economic benefits from sustainable management policy/institutional framework which
of fisheries and aquaculture; and secure access recognizes and protects access rights for small-
for small-scale artisanal fishers to fisher y scale fisheries.
resources and markets. The other targets relate to
marine pollution prevention and reduction, FAO will collaborate with and support custodian
management and protection of marine and agencies for other SDG 14 targets, for example,
coastal ecosystems, and implementation of SDG 14.c (collaboration between UN Division for
UNCLOS and applicable existing regional and Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea, FAO and
international regimes. other members 31 of UN-Oceans):

All targets are supported by agreed indicators „ „Target 14.c: Enhance the conser vation and
established by the Inter-Agency and Expert sustainable use of oceans and their resources
Group on SDGs and adopted by the UN by implementing international law as ref lected
Statistical Commission. 30 FAO has been identified in the United Nations Convention on the Law
as custodian for some 20 indicators, while of the Sea, which provides the legal framework
contributing to some 5 – 6 additional indicators. for the conser vation and sustainable use of
FAO is custodian agency for three SDG 14 oceans and their resources, as recalled in
targets, namely: paragraph 158 of “The future we want”.
Indicator 14.c.1: Number of countries making
„ „Target 14.4: By 2020, effectively reg ulate progress in ratif ying, accepting and
har vesting and end overfishing, illegal, implementing through legal, policy and
unreported and unreg ulated fishing and institutional frameworks, ocean-related
destructive fishing practices and implement instruments that implement international law,
science-based management plans, in order to as ref lected in UNCLOS, for the conser vation
restore fish stocks in the shortest time feasible, and sustainable use of the oceans and
at least to levels that can produce maximum their resources.
sustainable yield as determined by their
biological characteristics. The indicators expected to help monitor progress
Indicator 14.4.1: Proportion of fish stocks on the above SDG targets 14.6, 14.b and the
within biologically sustainable levels. fisheries component of 14.c are composite

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 THE STATE OF WORLD FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE 2016

indicators developed on the basis of the existing BGI, FAO mobilizes international support to
mechanism for monitoring implementation of the provide incentives and assistance to developing
Code by COFI Members through biennial Code countries so they can adapt and upscale
sur veys. They will therefore contribute to and implementation of blue growth strategies at the
support the reporting process for global local, national and regional levels to secure
monitoring of fisheries-related targets of the 2030 political commitment and governance reform.
Agenda. Recently, response rates by COFI The BGI brings together policies, investment,
Members have increased dramatically, following innovation and public–private partnerships that
the launching of the more accessible online Code underpin sustained growth and give rise to new
reporting system. economic opportunities in fish har vesting and
utilization and in ecosystem goods and ser vices.
Additional efforts to assess progress in fisheries
management are ongoing. These could assist In order to help achieve the SDGs, 34 FAO and its
related national, regional and global initiatives, Members and partners have been mainstreaming
and also support national and global SDG the BGI across both the Near East and North
monitoring measures. In this context, FAO Africa region and the Asia and Pacific region. 35
actively contributed to the 2016 Expert Meeting 32 The Asia and Pacific BGI currently focuses on
on improving progress reporting and working sustainable aquaculture development to reverse
towards implementation of Aichi Biodiversit y environmental degradation and ameliorate
Target 6, which developed a draft conceptual competition for mangrove space and freshwater
framework that could be used as g uidance by resources. Responsible management and
parties to the Convention on Biological Diversit y sustainable development of aquaculture can also
(CBD) in reporting on their implementation offer good work opportunities to Asian fish
towards the achievement of Target 6 on farmers, in particular youth, while
sustainable fisheries. The meeting identified a set simultaneously boosting their income and
of actions and potential indicators related to nutrition securit y, and safeg uarding their natural
achieving Target 6 and discussed ways to resources. This initiative is a good example of the
facilitate this through improved coordination t ype of actions required to ensure aquaculture
among the CBD, FAO and RFBs. becomes environmentally sound and truly
sustainable in line with the SDGs.
In addition, within the framework of the FAO/
GEF Coastal Fisheries Initiative, specific efforts Similarly, a comprehensive study is under way
are ongoing to develop and implement a with a view to unleashing the potential of blue
fisheries performance evaluation system that growth in the Near East and North Africa. In this
can be used to: (i) effectively evaluate the region, activities include: promoting desert
impacts of coastal fisheries projects; (ii) monitor aquaculture in Algeria; assessing livelihoods of
changes in environmental, social and economic fishing communities along the Nile River in
benefits of fisheries; and (iii) support knowledge Eg ypt and the Sudan; improving value chains in
sharing through identif ying pathways for Tunisia to ensure that women har vesting clams
implementation of management strategies to receive greater and diversified income; and
achieve sustainable fisheries. promoting the Nouakchott Declaration on the
reduction of losses and waste in the fisheries
The FAO Blue Growth Initiative and the SDGs sector. Fisheries and aquaculture also provide an
The FAO Blue Growth Initiative (BGI), 33 based on excellent opportunit y to create rural employment,
the sound principles of the Code, directly especially for youth, thereby allowing them to
contributes to a wide range of SDGs (see section remain in their own villages with gainful
Global agenda – global ambitions, p. 80). It employment, rather than having to migrate to
prioritizes balancing the sustainable urban areas or abroad in search of work. This
environmental, social and economic aspects of study should provide valuable information on the
use of our living aquatic resources. Through the feasibilit y of developing aquaculture in arid

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PART 4 OUTLOOK

zones and assessing the potential social and increased emphasis on the ser vices provided by
economic benefits that can accrue from improved coastal, oceanic and freshwater ecosystems, while
value chains and reductions in losses and waste, simultaneously minimizing environmental
which in turn will be important factors in pollution, loss of biodiversity and unsustainable
meeting the SDGs and delivering blue growth. use of aquatic resources. Moreover, the charter
aims to maximize economic and social benefits
Blue growth is especially relevant for Small for the population, and fully engages key sectors
Island Developing States (SIDS) and coastal areas as partners, including fisheries and aquaculture,
around the globe. Cabo Verde is extremely the seafood industr y, marine and coastal tourism,
v ulnerable to the effects of climate change and scientific research and shipping. Successful
climate-related disasters, which have direct implementation of this charter would be a good
impacts on food and nutrition securit y and example for other SIDS as a means to meet SDG
livelihoods. However, SIDS such as Cabo Verde targets and benefit from blue growth.
are best poised to develop and promote
economically viable, technically feasible and The 2030 Agenda provides the framework,
culturally acceptable development strategies that processes, stakeholder engagement and
support conser vation and sustainable use of the partnerships that can: (i) allow present and future
oceans. Cabo Verde worked with FAO to develop generations to benefit from aquatic resources; and
a blue growth charter, recently adopted by the (ii) help the fisheries and aquaculture sector to
Government of Cabo Verde, for implementation feed a growing population with nutritious food
at the national level. 36 The charter highlights the and provide economic prosperity, employment
countr y’s commitment to blue growth, and places opportunities and well-being. n

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NOTES
1 FAO, IFAD & WFP. 2015. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 15 UN. 2015. Transforming our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
2015. Meeting the 2015 international hunger targets: taking stock of Development [online]. Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 25
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4 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Adoption of the Paris Agreement [online]. FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1.
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6 For more information on the FAO fish model: FAO. 2012. The State of 19 United Nations Development Group. 2015. Mainstreaming the 2030
World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2012, pp. 186–193. Rome. 209 pp. (also Agenda for Sustainable Development. Reference Guide to UN Country
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wp-content/uploads/2015/10/UNDG-Mainstreaming-the-2030-Agenda-
7 For more information on efforts to integrate fish in overall agricultural
Reference-Guide-Final-1-February-2016.pdf
analysis: Ababouch, L., Taconet, M., Plummer, J., Garibaldi, L. &
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knowledge for all: the case of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the 21 UN. 2012. The future we want. Outcome document of the United
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Press, Taylor & Francis Group. 474 pp. 22 FAO. 2016. Global Partnership for Climate, Fisheries and Aquaculture.
8 This section is mainly based on the results of the fish model as included In: FAO [online]. Rome. [Cited 8 May 2016]. www.fao.org/pacfa/en/
in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025. More information 23 FAO. 2015. Voluntary Guidelines for Securing Sustainable Small-Scale
about the publication is available at www.agri-outlook.org/ and the entire Fisheries in the Context of Food Security and Poverty Eradication. Rome.
publication, including the fish chapter, is available at: OECD. 2016. 18 pp. (also available at www.fao.org/3/a-i4356e.pdf).
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook. In: OECD [online]. [Cited July 2016].
24 FAO. 2014. Voluntary Guidelines on Flag State Performance. In: FAO
www.agri-outlook.org/publication/
Fisheries and Aquaculture Department [online]. Rome. [Cited 8 May 2016].
9 In this section, the term “fish” indicates fish, crustaceans, molluscs and www.fao.org/fishery/topic/16159/en
other aquatic animals, but excludes aquatic mammals, crocodiles, caimans,
25 FAO. 2009–2016. Global Record of Fishing Vessels Refrigerated
alligators, seaweed and other aquatic plants.
Transport Vessels and Supply Vessels. In: FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture
10 In the model, the years affected by the El Niño phenomenon are set at Department [online]. Rome. Updated 12 February 2015. [Cited 8 May
the beginning of the Outlook period and 2021. 2016]. www.fao.org/fishery/global-record/en
11 Including fishmeal converted into a live weight equivalent basis. 26 FAO. 2016. Agreement on Port State Measures to Prevent, Deter and
12 FAO. 2016. Climate change and food security: risks and responses. Eliminate Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing. Accord relatif aux
Rome. 110 pp. (also available at www.fao.org/3/a-i5188e.pdf). mesures du ressort de l’État du port visant à prévenir, contrecarrer et éliminer
13 IPCC. 2013. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. la pêche illicite, non déclarée et non réglementée. Acuerdo sobre medidas
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the del Estado rector del puerto destinadas a prevenir, desalentar y eliminar la
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, pesca ilegal, no declarada y no reglamentada. Rome/Roma. 100 pp.
G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex (also available at http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5469t.pdf).
& P.M. Midgley. Cambridge, UK, and New York, USA, Cambridge 27 International Labour Organization. 2007. C188 - Work in Fishing
University Press. 1535 pp. Convention, 2007 (No. 188) Convention concerning work in the fishing
14 Fish seed indicates eggs, spawn, offspring, progeny or brood of the sector. In: ILO [online]. [Cited 8 May 2016]. www.ilo.org/dyn/normlex/
aquatic organism (including aquatic plants) being cultured. At this infantile en/f?p=NORMLEXPUB:12100:0::NO::P12100_ILO_CODE:C188
stage, seed may also be referred to or known as fry, larvae, postlarvae, 28 UN-Oceans. 2015. UN-Oceans – an interagency collaboration
spat and fingerlings. Seed may originate from two main sources: captive mechanism on ocean and coastal issues within the UN system. In:
breeding programmes; and caught from the wild. UN-Oceans [online]. [Cited 8 May 2016]. www.unoceans.org/
29 The UN High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development will
have the central role in overseeing the follow-up and review processes at
the global level: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/hlpf

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NOTES

30 UN. 2016. Report of the Inter-Agency and Expert Group on 34 Op. cit., see note 18.
Sustainable Development Goal Indicators [online]. E/CN.3/2016/2/ 35 Both initiatives contribute to the following SDGs: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 10,
Rev.1* 19 February 2016. [Cited 8 May 2016]. http://unstats.un.org/ 12, 13, 14, 15, 17. See: UN. 2016. Sustainable Development Goals. In:
unsd/statcom/47th-session/documents/2016-2-SDGs-Rev1-E.pdf UN [online]. [Cited 8 May 2016]. https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/
31 Op. cit., see note 28 for full list of UN-Oceans members. topics/sustainabledevelopmentgoals
32 FAO, SCBD & IUCN-CEM-FEG. 2016. Report of the Expert Meeting 36 ECOLEX. 2105. Resolution No. 112/2015 approving the Charta
on Improving Progress Reporting and Working Towards Implementation of promoting the improvement of marine sector in Cape Verde. In: ECOLEX
Aichi Biodiversity Target 6. Rome, Italy, 9–11 February 2016 [online]. [Cited [online]. [Cited 8 May 2016]. www.ecolex.org/ecolex/ledge/view/Recor
8 May 2016]. www.cbd.int/doc/meetings/sbstta/sbstta-20/information/ dDetails;DIDPFDSIjsessionid=C4922D7CD7A73B317E1BEF86F6536C1E?i
sbstta-20-inf-27-en.pdf d=LEX-FAOC152135&index=documents
33 FAO. 2016. Blue growth – unlocking the potential of seas and oceans.
In: FAO [online]. [Cited 8 May 2016]. www.fao.org/zhc/detail-events/
en/c/233765/

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