Develop Predictive Maintenance
Algorithms using MATLAB
Dr. Sarah Drewes, MathWorks Consulting Services
© 2015 The MathWorks, Inc.
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Different Types of Learning
Machine Learning
Supervised Unsupervised • Discover a good internal representation
Learning Learning • Learn a low dimensional representation
• Output is a choice between classes
Classification • (True, False) (Red, Blue, Green)
Regression • Output is a real number (temperature,
stock prices)
2
Classification in Predictive Maintenance
Parameters/Predictors: Sensor data, control settings
Classes/States: Failure states, time horizon until failure/ material fatigue
Goal: Predict failure from sensor data
Prerequisites:
- Machine-readable data format
- Sufficient historical data containing meaningful information
3
Classification model generation
@MONDI Gronau
Sensor Data Parameters/Predictors
(10-100 /plant)
update ~ 60-90
min.
Quality State
Classes/States:
1: ok
2: failure
Which sensor measurements indicate machine failure?
4
Classification model generation
Basic Workflow
Preprocess Data
Choose Algorithm
Fit Model
Evaluate Model
Choose Model
Make Predictions
5
Classification model generation-
Prepare data
• Preprocess sensor data: clean invalid data, disregard constant values,
identify data types
• Aggregate per time stamp
Sensor Data
(10-100 /plant)
update ~ 60-90
min.
Quality State
6
Classification model generation
Basic Workflow
Preprocess Data
Choose Algorithm
Fit Model
Evaluate Model
Choose Model
Make Predictions
7
Classification model generation
Choose algorithms
Possible Classification Methods
Discriminant Analysis
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Classification model generation
Choose an algorithm
Distinguish 'categorical' (= discrete) and other (= continuous) predictors
A priori analysis of data, e.g., test for normal distribution
Reduce dimension of predictor variables, e.g., principal component analysis
(PCA)
Use ensemble learning to reduce sensitivity of learning algorithms, e.g.
TreeBagger for classification trees
9
Classification model generation
Choose an algorithm
Y N
Y ?
Y
10
Classification model generation
Basic Workflow
Preprocess Data
Choose Algorithm
Fit Model
Evaluate Model
Choose Model
Make Predictions
11
Classification model generation
Fit model
Fit model based on historic data
PredictionModel = fitctree(PARAMETER,
fitcxxx
fitcknn (PARAMETER, STATE)
fitcnb
myfitnn
Training Data,
e.g. 70% of
historic data
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Classification model generation
Fit model
13
Classification model generation
Basic Workflow
Preprocess Data
Choose Algorithm
Fit Model
Evaluate Model
Choose Model
Make Predictions
14
Classification model generation
Evaluate model
predictedState = PredictionModel(Parameter)
PredictionModel
predictedState
1
Validation
1
Data, e.g. 1
30% of 1
historic data 2
2
1
Misclassification rate 1 of 7: 14.28 %
Accuracy: 85.72 %
15
Classification model generation
Evaluate model - using Classification Learner App
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Classification model generation
Basic Workflow
Preprocess Data
Choose Algorithm
For each
classification
Fit Model method
Evaluate Model
Choose Model
Make Predictions
17
Classification model generation
Choose model
Choose Model with best misclassification rate
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Classification model generation
Choose model
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Classification model generation
Basic Workflow
Preprocess Data
Choose Algorithm
Fit Model
Evaluate Model
Choose Model
Make Predictions
20
Predictive monitoring at MONDI Gronau -
Use the predictive model
Predict current machine states during operation.
Sensor Data
(10-100 /plant)
update ~ 60-90
min.
Quality State
ok
State is: not ok
Sensor data
(now)
Prediction Update
Train Prediction
Prediction
Model
Model
(historic data)
Model
Predicted State (now)
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Process monitoring at MONDI Gronau –
Domain knowledge and tools
Tools:
MATLAB
Database Toolbox
Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox
Neural Network Toolbox
MATLAB Compiler
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